| | |  | BY NAOMI ANDU | | | 
Demonstrators hold signs and listen to speakers during the March For Our Lives: Los Angeles protest calling for action on gun violence, Saturday, June 11, 2022. | Keith Birmingham/The Orange County Register via AP | TIP OF THE ICEBERG — In a breakthrough after years of stalemate, Senate negotiators struck a deal on a modest, bipartisan gun safety framework this weekend. The framework, which has not yet been translated into a bill that can be voted on, focuses on so-called red-flag laws, more money for mental health treatment and school security, and increased scrutiny of gun buyers under the age of 21. Yet while mass shootings like the ones in Buffalo, Uvalde and Tulsa garner deserved attention from the news media — and from lawmakers — these shocking events account for only around 1 percent of gun deaths in the United States. Suicides make up just over half of all gun deaths, according to Pew Research Center. Nightly asked a panel of experts: What in your view is the single gun safety measure that would most effectively address the other 99 percent of gun deaths? These answers have been edited. “There’s a fix that would reduce the leading cause of gun deaths in the U.S. Only two states, Oregon and Massachusetts, have ‘safe storage’ laws requiring gun owners to keep all their weapons under lock and key when not in use. This helps mitigate the risk of others finding and using a loaded weapon, and it means that many attempted suicides either won’t be successful, or won’t be tried at all. “Studies show the presence of a firearm in the home makes suicide up to five times more likely because firearms are devastatingly effective, denying the victim a chance to reconsider. My father did this in 2006, using an unsecured handgun he found in a friend’s house. Safe storage laws make such scenarios less likely. “Will some people violate storage laws? Unquestionably. Safe storage advocates do not propose to go into people’s homes to check for adherence. But the responsible gun owner will comply, and perhaps more important, the existence of the law would help create a lasting mentality of safety around this totem that people think is solely for self-defense, but really exposes them and their households to higher risk of suicide.” — Erin Dunkerly, chair of the Firearms and Suicide Committee at the American Association of Suicidology “Requiring purchasers of handguns and semi-automatic rifles to obtain a license would have the largest positive impact on gun violence. The strongest state licensing laws require in-person applications to public safety agencies, fingerprint-facilitated background checks and safety training. Our research shows that handgun-purchaser licensing laws reduce homicides, suicides, fatal mass shootings and shootings of police. We found that Connecticut’s law was associated with reductions in rates of firearm homicide (28 percent) and firearm suicide (33 percent). In contrast, Missouri’s firearm homicide and suicide rates rose sharply following the 2007 repeal of its law. “We think a key reason purchaser licensing is effective is that it reduces guns being diverted for use in crime and curtails impulsive acquisition of firearms that can lead to otherwise preventable suicides. “There is strong public support for this policy. Our national public opinion surveys show that handgun purchaser licensing is supported by 77 percent of adults, including 63 percent of gun owners. Three-quarters of gun owners in states with purchaser licensing support the policy. “The U.S. is the only high-income country that does not require a license to purchase a firearm. That may partly explain why our homicide rate is 25 times higher than the average high-income country.” — Daniel Webster, co-director of the Johns Hopkins Center for Gun Violence Solutions; Cassandra Crifasi, director of research and policy; and Alex McCourt, core faculty member “What is often referred to by researchers as ‘community gun violence’ — interpersonal violence between unrelated individuals that usually stems from a dispute — is a far bigger driver of our nation’s homicide rate than mass shootings are. And there exists little to no rigorous evidence to support claims that community gun violence can be significantly reduced through the enactment of popular gun control measures like assault weapons bans and more expansive background checks. “What we do know, however, is that community gun violence is hyper-concentrated , both geographically and demographically. In cities across the country, such violence is driven largely by just a few hundred individuals, many of whom have come into contact with the criminal justice system for a wide range of offenses on multiple occasions. For example, the University of Chicago Crime Lab found that the average shooting or homicide suspect in that city had approximately 12 prior arrests. “Research shows that analyzing criminal histories can help predict gun assaults. While imperfect, strong risk assessment tools can help law enforcement identify the chronic offenders within their jurisdictions that pose the greatest risks of gun violence perpetration. Once identified, those individuals can be targeted for prosecutions that lead to those offenders’ incapacitation, which research out of New York City found to be responsible for significant reductions in street-level gun violence in some of the city’s most vulnerable communities.” — Rafael A. Mangual, senior fellow and head of research for the Manhattan Institute’s Policing and Public Safety Initiative and the author of the forthcoming “Criminal (In)Justice” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Keep reading for more answers from our experts. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at nandu@politico.com or on Twitter at @naomiandu.
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Learn more about our work ahead. | | | “There is increasingly promising evidence backing community violence intervention programs, which help deescalate stressful situations before they lead to violence. Two of these programs, Choose to Change and READI Chicago, provide mental and behavioral health support to help people cope with trauma and navigate difficult situations, like when someone has a gun. “The University of Chicago Crime Lab evaluation of Choose to Change, which is geared toward youth, found that participants had 48 percent fewer violent crime arrests and 32 percent fewer school misconduct incidents than their control group peers. Our study of READI Chicago, which supports men most at risk of gun violence, found participants had 63 percent fewer arrests and 19 percent fewer victimizations for shootings and homicides. “We are 85 percent confident that reduction in shootings was due to READI itself (rather than by chance), and our best estimate is that READI returns between $3 and $7 in social good to society for every $1 spent on the program. Robust and sustained investment in building out the CVI evidence base — learning more about what works, and what doesn’t, and why — is one of our best opportunities to immediately reduce gun violence. As gun violence continues to devastate communities across America, who wouldn’t want to make that bet?” — Roseanna Ander, founding executive director of the University of Chicago’s Crime Lab “Two-thirds of women killed by guns are murdered by an intimate partner. While limiting access to guns would undoubtedly save lives, many of the measures recently passed by the House of Representatives — such an assault weapons ban, ammunition restrictions and higher age requirements — would do little to address the widespread availability of legally owned handguns responsible for most of these murders. “Any strategy to alleviate this problem must address the dysfunctional dynamics present in far too many intimate relationships. If we want to reduce gun violence directed against women, we need to break the cycle of past trauma and abuse that feeds controlling and violent behavior by too many men toward women. Domestic violence scholars such as Beth Richie and Leigh Goodmark have argued that we need to move past strategies rooted in the criminal legal system like orders of protection and mandatory arrest policies. Instead, we should invest in a broad range of family support systems designed to both assist families in crisis that want to stay together and offer credible pathways to independence for those who need it. We should follow the lead of New York City Council Member Tiffany Cabán, who has proposed the creation of community-based family support centers in each of the city’s neighborhoods to provide exactly these kinds of services as well as non-police domestic violence crisis response.” — Alex S. Vitale, professor of sociology at Brooklyn College and the CUNY Graduate Center and author of “The End Of Policing”
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| — Senate sprints to wrap gun deal by next week: Senate negotiators are racing to finalize legislative text for a gun safety bill, aiming to hold a vote on the final product before Congress leaves for recess in less than two weeks. Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer said today that “for the first time in a long time, the Senate has a path forward on legislation that will save lives.” It’s a potentially rocky path from framework to bill text, however, a fact Schumer acknowledged: “Make no mistake about it, we have a lot of work left to do before we actually pass a bill.” — Garland says he’ll watch Jan. 6 hearings in full: Attorney General Merrick Garland said today he plans to watch the House Jan. 6 select committee’s hearings in their entirety, but he remained cagey about whether the Justice Department is exploring the potential criminal culpability of former President Donald Trump or his top advisers in the insurrection at the Capitol. “I am watching and I will be watching all the hearings, although I may not be able to watch all of it live,” Garland said in response to a question at an afternoon press conference about efforts to prosecute gun trafficking. “I can assure you the Jan. 6 prosecutors are watching all of the hearings, as well.” — FDA: Pfizer, Moderna vaccines for kids under 6 are safe, effective: The three-dose Pfizer-BioNTech vaccine for kids ages 6 months through 4 years will likely benefit this age group, the FDA said, noting higher hospitalization and death rates among the youngest children in the U.S. compared with those 5 and older. — Abortion protections in New York fortified ahead of SCOTUS ruling: New York is on its way to becoming a national abortion “safe haven” with a series of new laws aimed at shielding abortion patients and providers from out-of-state legal actions, Gov. Kathy Hochul said today. The new measures bolster protections for both residents and out-of-state patients seeking abortions with an omnibus measure that would block New York courts from issuing subpoenas in connection with out-of-state abortion proceedings; prohibit extradition of abortion providers unless they are alleged to have fled from the demanding state; and provide legal protections for New York abortion providers. — Amazon to deliver packages by drone: Amazon will begin using drones to deliver parcels — nearly a decade after Jeff Bezos first floated the concept — beginning in a small town in California later this year. In an appearance on the “TODAY” show, Amazon said it plans to deliver packages weighing less than five pounds within an hour, using drones ferrying items from a facility roughly 15 miles away.
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| | | | | TRUDEAU TESTS POSITIVE, AGAIN — Prime Minister Justin Trudeau has tested positive for Covid-19 for the second time, days after an in-person meeting with President Joe Biden. The prime minister has been triple-vaccinated, having received a booster dose in January. Later that same month, he tested positive for Covid for the first time, writes Maura Forrest. The news comes just after Trudeau’s return from Los Angeles, where he spent much of last week meeting with leaders at the Summit of the Americas. He met with Biden on Thursday. Trudeau also met last week with California Gov. Gavin Newsom, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Argentine President Alberto Fernández, Barbadian Prime Minister Mia Mottley, Jamaican Prime Minister Andrew Holness, Dominican Republic President Luis Abinader and Google CEO Sundar Pichai.
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At least 24 hours The amount of training staff will need in order to carry a gun in Ohio school districts, as required by a bill GOP Gov. Mike Dewine signed into law today. Ohio school teachers were already allowed to carry guns on school grounds, but they had to have school board approval and at least 700 hours of training as a peace officer. “My office worked with the General Assembly to remove hundreds of hours of curriculum irrelevant to school safety and to ensure training requirements were specific to a school environment and contained significant scenario-based training,” DeWine said earlier this month. |
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| | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today. | | | | | | | TRUMP VS. ‘TEAM NORMAL’ — The Jan. 6 select committee’s case that Trump stoked a violent insurrection rests on a fundamental premise: Trump was endlessly told, over and over, that his claims of election fraud were false. And he amplified them anyway, write Kyle Cheney and Nicholas Wu. At today’s public hearing, the panel unloaded a stream of evidence, most of it videotaped interviews, that showed Trump’s own top advisers repeatedly told him his elections claims were wrong. Time and again — no matter what detailed corroboration they provided — advisers testified that Trump responded with derision, ultimately pushing those aides aside in favor of the fringe lawyers willing to echo the false allegations. “I didn’t mind being characterized as part of ‘Team Normal,’” Trump campaign manager Bill Stepien told the select committee, in a newly aired clip of his testimony — contrasting himself favorably to the attorneys who took up Trump’s crusade. Stepien. Attorney General Bill Barr. Campaign aides Matt Morgan and Alex Cannon. Barr’s successor Jeff Rosen. Rosen’s deputy Richard Donoghue. White House advisers Eric Herschmann and Derek Lyons. All delved into the fraud claims that gained Trump’s favor, according to testimony aired today, and all told Trump there was nothing to them. But Trump shunted Stepien and others aside in favor of Rudy Giuliani — who, while “apparently inebriated,” convinced Trump on election night to declare victory — and Sidney Powell, the two attorneys who drove Trump’s fraud claims when others would not. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.
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