Turkey’s Erdoğan threatens to intervene in Israel

Arzu Geybullayeva08/06/2024

( Globalvoices.org ) – A verbal spat between Turkey and Israel highlighted the country’s complicated relationship with Israel and Palestine and drew attention to Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan’s penchant for doublespeak.

During a speech in the province of Rize on July 28, Erdoğan said there was no reason for Turkey not to intervene in Israel’s war on Gaza, just like it has done in  Karabakh and Libya. The president did not elaborate on what this intervention would look like. 

The remarks triggered an exchange that started with Israel’s Minister of Foreign Affairs, Israel Katz, comparing Erdoğan to Saddam Hussain in a post on X, writing, “Erdoğan follows in the footsteps of Saddam Hussein and threatens to attack Israel. Just let him remember what happened there and how it ended.” The Minister was referring to Saddam Hussain’s capture and eventual execution.

Katz also urged NATO to expel Turkey following Erdoğan’s remarks. An opposition figure Yair Lapid also joined the fray, calling on the world and NATO to “strongly condemn [Erdoğan’s] outrageous threats against Israel and force him to end his support for Hamas,” adding that Israel “won’t accept threats from a wannabe dictator.”

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There were no statements from NATO or any of its members at the time of writing this story, with the exception of a bipartisan group of US lawmakers who denounced Erdoğan’s threats.

Turkey’s Ministry of Foreign Affairs responded on X, comparing Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu to Adolf Hitler, “Just as genocidal Hitler ended, so will genocidal Netanyahu. Just as the genocidal Nazis were held accountable, so will those who try to destroy the Palestinians.”

Turkey’s public broadcaster TRT took it a step further in a tweet:

“Just as genocidal Hitler ended, so will genocidal Netanyahu” The murderer of millions, Hitler, drank cyanide and then shot himself after losing Berlin. Just as genocidal Hitler ended, so will genocidal Netanyahu.

The Directorate of Communication also tweeted, “They have committed an atrocity that will outshine Hitler, the most cursed figure of the last century. Gaza has become the world’s largest extermination camp today.”

Since October 2023, Turkey went from trying to mediate between Israel and Hamas to recalling its ambassador to Tel Aviv and announcing total restrictions on all trade with Israel until the war on Gaza ends. But a recent investigation by Turkish journalist Metin Cihan showed how Turkey has continued to steadily supply oil to Israel via the Baku-Tbilisi-Ceyhan (BTC) pipeline — a gas pipeline that carries Azerbaijani oil through Georgia to Turkey’s Mediterranean ports, where it is then shipped around the world, including Israel.

Turkey continued to maintain the flow despite calls to halt the supply of Azerbaijani oil exports to Israel (Turkey did restrict the sale of certain goods to Israel in April and announced its decision to cease all trade ties with Israel in May 2024). Reportedly, the sale of Azerbaijani oil to Israel increased by 23 percent between January to April 2024, compared to the indicators from 2023.

Image by Arzu Geybullayeva

Using data from BOTAS — Turkey’s state-owned oil and gas company which operates Turkey’s section of the BTC — Cihan wrote how millions of barrels of oil are shipped from Ceyhan on a monthly basis. “We don’t know how much of it goes to Israel,” wrote Cihan on X. “According to our Minister of Energy, we do not have influence nor authority over where oil is shipped. The oil is sold by Azerbaijan. We simply get our share,” explained Cihan.

In his following tweets, Cihan wrote that after looking into relevant agreements, Turkey cannot sanction this trade route given the existing agreements. “According to an agreement with British Petroleum (BP) we would pay compensation to the company in case of a delay of petroleum for any given reason,” explained Cihan. “According to the Baku–Tbilisi–Ceyhan pipeline agreement [Turkey] signed we are obligated to continue supply oil even at times of war or terrorism. This trade is considered superior even to human rights and state sovereignty. In exchange, we receive a share of 80 cents per barrel of oil loaded onto tankers from Ceyhan,” added Cihan.

Due to this agreement, Erdoğan’s statement was viewed in Turkey as nothing but an empty threat. In a tweet, veteran journalist, Amberin Zaman wrote, “If Erdoğan meant any of it he would start off by halting Azerbaijani oil sales to Israel which go through Turkish ports.”

President Erdoğan has made empty provocative statements before. On two occasions in 2022, he said Turkey could invade Greece overnight.

Turkey also took a U-turn in the Gulf Diplomatic Crisis. During the crisis, Turkey backed Qatar while Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt severed their ties with Qatar. After openly supporting Qatar in the conflict, Turkey’s relations with Saudia Arabia, the UAE, Bahrain, and Egypt took a chilly turn. However, once the crisis ended, Erdoğon changed his tune on these countries and relations improved dramatically.

In the case of Egypt, relations between the two countries soured after former president Mohammed Morsi was ousted in a military-backed uprising in 2013. Morsi was a leader of the Muslim Brotherhood, which had ties with the ruling Turkish Justice and Development Party (AKP). But in 2022 during the opening of the 2022 FIFA World Cup in Qatar, the infamous handshake between President Erdoğan and his Egyptian counterpart Abdel Fattah el-Sisi signaled that changes were afoot.

In January 2024, Erdoğan traveled to Cairo where he signed several agreements with al-Sisi.

On the United Arab Emirates front, the ties between the two countries showed signs of thawing in 2022, when the UAE expressed interest in purchasing Turkey’s Bayraktar drones. After Erdoğan’s victory in the May 2023 election, the two countries signed a five-year trade agreement.

But the recent strongly worded statement from the President should not go unnoticed, warned Sinan Ciddi and Sophia Epley in a recent policy brief for the Foundation for Defense of Democracies (FDD), a Washington DC-based research institute. The authors wrote:

Erdoğan often threatens other countries to bolster political support from his nationalist and Islamist base. Neither the United States nor its NATO allies should ignore Erdoğan. President Joe Biden in concert with NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg should demand a de-escalatory statement and corrective language from Erdoğan.

There is also the matter of domestic audience as Gonul Tol, the director of the Middle East Institute’s Turkey program explained in an interview with Al-Monitor, “The tough rhetoric against Israel is his attempt at keeping his most conservative supporters from defecting to New Welfare and to maintain his image as ‘a tough guy who stands up to Israel.”

According to a survey by the Turkish Foundation for Political, Economic, and Social Research (SETA), which is known for its close ties to the ruling party, in 2024, an overwhelming 83 percent of the respondents expressed support for Palestine. In October of last year, hundreds of thousands of Turks attended a pro-Palestine rally waving Turkish and Palestinian flags.

Erdoğan’s statement also stirred some international controversy, especially with his reference to Karabakh — a formerly disputed territory between Armenia and Azerbaijan, which Azerbaijan reclaimed control over last year. Turkish troops were not directly involved in the war between Armenia and Azerbaijan in 2020 but the country did provide operational and political support “by supplying arms and conducting joint military drills during the Nagorno-Karabakh war.” Naturally, the president’s remarks about “entering Karabakh” raised eyebrows as both Turkey and Azerbaijan denied direct involvement of foreign troops during the war and after. In response to a media inquiry, Azerbaijan’s Ministry of Defense called the statement untrue.

Via Globalvoices.org

About the Author

Arzu Geybullayeva is an Azerbaijani columnist and writer, with special focus in digital authoritarianism and its implications on human rights and press freedom in Azerbaijan. Arzu has written for Al Jazeera, Eurasianet, Foreign Policy Democracy Lab, CODA, Open Democracy, Radio Free Europe, and CNN International. She is a regular contributor at IWPR, Osservatorio Balcani e Caucaso and Global Voices. In 2019, Arzu launched Azerbaijan Internet Watch, a platform that documents, and monitors information controls in Azerbaijan. Arzu has contributed to GV since May 2010

INFORMED COMMENT

POLITICO Nightly: Avoiding another war in the former Soviet Union

 

BY GABRIEL GAVIN Armenian refugees from Nagorno-Karabakh are seen in the center of the town of Goris on October 1, 2023 before being evacuated to various Armenian cities. | Diego Herrera Carcedo/AFP via Getty Images GEOPOLITICAL TANGLE — For weeks now, there have been warnings that yet another bloody war could break out on the edge of Europe — pushing the U.S. and E.U. further into a geopolitical tangle with Russia. Now, all eyes are on the South Caucasus to see whether a decades-old conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan can be averted, or if it will be added to the growing list of geopolitical hotspots that require attention from the West. While the standoff has flown below the radar amid growing tensions between Serbia and Kosovo; as well as war between Russia and Ukraine and Hamas and Israel, the space sandwiched between Russia and Iran has become increasingly tense. Washington and Brussels have laid out clear red lines that have since been crossed. And there’s a growing suspicion that peace isn’t in Moscow’s best interests. Last month, Azerbaijan launched an offensive to take control of the breakaway region of Nagorno-Karabakh, with thousands of troops and tanks pushing forward under the cover of heavy artillery fire. Within 24 hours, taking heavy casualties on the front lines, the ethnic Armenian authorities had surrendered, effectively ending thirty years of de facto independence since a war that followed the fall of the Soviet Union. More than 100,000 people were forced to flee their homes with what few possessions they could pack into cars, buses and even open-topped construction trucks. Few think they’ll ever be able to return, despite Azerbaijan’s promises of “reintegration.” And the Armenian government has accused Azerbaijan of carrying out ethnic cleansing in the region, with concerns of more aggression to come. While the U.S. and E.U. have condemned the use of force, they’ve been unwilling or unable to take a tougher stance. Azerbaijan is a close partner of both critical NATO ally Turkey and of Israel, and has also stepped up exports of natural gas to Europe as part of efforts to wean the continent off Russian fossil fuels. On top of that, Azerbaijan maintains it was only acting to take control of its internationally-recognized territories, and insists that makes it an entirely internal issue. But concerns have been growing that Azerbaijan could be planning an invasion of Armenia itself to seize a strategically important transport route that would link it up with Turkey — known as the Zangezur Corridor. Armenia’s new ambassador to the E.U, Tigran Balayan has said his country expects the attack “within weeks.” Now though, both Azerbaijan and Armenia are saying a long-awaited peace deal could be done over the next few months instead. Speaking to POLITICO, Azerbaijani foreign policy chief Hikmet Hajiyev insisted there was no plan for a confrontation and that the corridor project “has lost its attractiveness for us” because of alternative routes through neighboring Iran. Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan, meanwhile, said last week that a final ceasefire could be signed soon — and unveiled a “Crossroads for Peace” project designed to bolster transport links with Azerbaijan and Turkey. The move would be a major blow to Russia, which still has troops patrolling Armenia’s closed borders — once the frontier between the Soviet Union and NATO. With talk of peace in our time, Pashinyan has even hinted it might be time to tell Moscow’s military to leave once and for all. The efforts to secure a diplomatic settlement would also be touted as a win in Washington and Brussels, despite the mass exodus and shattered lives as a result of last month’s war. Behind the scenes, Western diplomats have been fighting to avoid a repeat of the violence and prevent the worst case scenario from coming about. And, at a time when Russia is reportedly seeking to stretch the West thin between conflicts in the Balkans, the Middle East and in Africa, it would be a rare moment where calmer heads prevailed and chaos could be averted. Only time will tell if that’s the case — but both Armenia and Azerbaijan are, for the moment, optimistic. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin .   GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to feature a special edition of our Future Pulse newsletter at the 2023 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from November 6-8. 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POLITICO Nightly: What kind of political creature is Mike Johnson?

 

BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) arrives for a media availability at the U.S. Capitol today. | Francis Chung/POLITICO DISCOVERING AMERICA — With House Republicans clinging to a narrow majority ahead of the 2024 elections, it’s only natural that the party would worry about whether new House Speaker Mike Johnson has the fundraising chops to enable the GOP to hang on . But there’s another, related question that isn’t getting much airing — and may be just as critical to the party’s prospects next year: What kind of political creature is Johnson? How much does he understand about the modern political map and the field conditions affecting his conference? All members of Congress are political animals, of course. But the ones who rise on the national stage often have a more sophisticated and nuanced grasp of the political landscape beyond their own backyard, and a climatologist’s feel for the atmospheric patterns from state to state and region to region. Kevin McCarthy, Johnson’s predecessor as speaker, is one of those politicians. A former district director for Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.), minority leader of the California House and head of recruiting for the National Republican Congressional Committee, he was primed for the political dimensions of the House speakership. Even as McCarthy ran for an open seat in Congress in 2006, he was sending donations to other aspiring House Republican candidates in contested races across the nation. Nancy Pelosi, the former Democratic speaker, was introduced to campaigns and elections at an early age — her father was a big-city mayor with an urban machine to attend to. Before winning election to Congress, she served as state party chair of California — back when it was still a competitive two-party state — and got a crash course in the political distinctions between Northern and Southern California, Orange County and Marin County, the Central Valley and Silicon Valley. Johnson, on the other hand, has a far more limited range of experience. His political frame of reference is essentially the Trump era. A constitutional lawyer and talk show host, he was unopposed in his special election to a single term in the state legislature in 2015 and then won election to Congress in 2016. He had to win a crowded primary to capture his Northwest Louisiana-based congressional seat, but he’s never broken a sweat since then. Johnson has skated to re-election three times in his comfortably Republican district; last year, he had no opposition at all. Johnson hails from a one-party district in a one-party state — and that state is Louisiana, which holds off-year legislative and gubernatorial elections and has a unique primary system that makes it something of an exotic among the 50 states. Louisiana politics is not for the faint of heart, but neither is it the best preparation for the business of defending 221 seats spread across nearly every region of the nation. Johnson will need to get up to speed quickly on the very different pressures faced by many of his GOP colleagues — 18 of whom sit in districts carried by President Joe Biden in 2020. In those places, Johnson’s call for a national abortion ban and his leading role in attempting to overturn the 2020 election results will not be helpful to them. Most, if not all, of those Biden-district Republicans will be pedaling hard to distance themselves from their party leader on the campaign trail. In that sense, Johnson’s social conservatism, fidelity to Trump and red-state pedigree could make him a partisan bogeyman similar to Pelosi. Her wealth, liberal politics and San Francisco base made her easy to caricature in GOP campaign ads against vulnerable Democrats. Demonizing Johnson is the Democrats’ hope and intention , at least. There’s no guarantee it will work: it could take years before Johnson, who is largely unknown, builds any name recognition. 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AROUND THE WORLD Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pachinian addresses members of parliament during a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on Oct. 17, 2023. | Frederick Florin/AFP via Getty Images PEACE IN PROCESS — Armenia could agree terms on a comprehensive peace agreement with neighboring Azerbaijan , ending a bitter regional rivalry after three decades of hostilities, Armenia’s prime minister said today, reports Gabriel Gavin . Speaking at a conference in Georgia, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that his government could sign “an agreement on peace and the establishment of relationships” with its neighbor “in the coming months.” At the same time, he unveiled a “Crossroads of Peace” project designed to reopen road and railway links that have been blocked for decades amid the simmering conflict with Azerbaijan and its close ally, Turkey. The announcement comes just weeks after Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive to take control of the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been fought over by the two sides since the fall of the USSR. An estimated 100,000 ethnic Armenians living in the mountainous territory were forced to flee their homes as their unrecognized breakaway state collapsed after 30 years of de facto autonomy. On Tuesday, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said the decisive military action means there are now “real chances for the conclusion of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia within a short period of time.” SECOND FRONT — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that Russia is benefitting from war in the Middle East as senior officials from Hamas arrived in Moscow for talks, writes Paul Dallison . Addressing EU leaders meeting for a summit in Brussels, Zelenskyy said by video link: “We must do everything to prevent an even larger international fire from breaking out in the Middle East. The enemies of freedom are very interested in bringing the free world to the second front.” He added: “We must clearly see this scenario and counter it — together, of course. The sooner security prevails in the Middle East, the sooner we will restore security here — in Europe.” Zelenskyy spoke as a delegation from Hamas visited Moscow for talks on the release of the foreign hostages, including Russians, that the group is holding in Gaza, Russian news agencies reported. Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza could lead to a broader regional conflict. “Our main task is to stop the bloodshed and violence,” he said, “otherwise, further escalation of the crisis is fraught with grave and extremely dangerous and destructive consequences. And not only for the Middle East region. It could spill over far beyond the borders of the Middle East.”   JOIN 10/25 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF GRID RELIABILITY: The EPA’s proposed standards for coal and new natural gas fired power plants have implications for the future of the electric grid. These rules may lead to changes in the power generation mix—shifting to more renewable sources in favor of fossil-fuel plants. Join POLITICO on Oct. 25 for a deep-dive conversation on what it will take to ensure a reliable electric grid for the future. REGISTER NOW .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 4.9 percent The annual rate of growth of the U.S. GDP over the third quarter of 2023 , as Americans defied higher prices, rising interest rates and widespread forecasts of a recession to spend at a brisk pace. The Commerce Department said the economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in more than two years — and more than twice the 2.1% annual rate of the previous quarter. RADAR SWEEP THE LITERARY ‘IT GIRL’ — Just as the publishing business has changed the kinds of books that get greenlighted, so too has the marketing strategy for authors . The press tour after a book is released still exists, but now it’s being supplemented with a group of authors and literary magazines that are throwing big parties, shaking up what the “book launch party” looks like. Authors have found that curating a personality or brand, and showing that to the world, helps to sell books. And they’re having fun doing so. Sophia June reports on the “makings of a literary ‘it girl’” for NYLON. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1993: Residents of the Port-au-Prince neighborhood Cité Soleil, make their way to the downtown market. Normally they are picked up by buses, however, with a week-long oil embargo in effect, the only way to get there was on foot. | Michael Stravato/AP Photo Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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