POLITICO NIGHTLY: The migrant crisis that still hasn’t arrived

 

View in browser   BY KATHERINE LONG A U.S. Border Patrol agent speaks to migrants before they are transported from a makeshift camp between the U.S. and Mexico near San Diego, Calif. | Mario Tama/Getty Images QUIET ON THE SOUTHERN FRONT — Roughly two weeks have passed since the end of Title 42, and the huge influx of migrants that was supposed to send the border into chaos hasn’t materialized. Instead, there was a 50 percent drop in border crossings in the immediate days following the end of the public health mandate that gave legal cover for Title 42. So, what happened? While it’s not entirely clear yet, that drop was at least in part related to the huge number of migrants entering the U.S. in the days before the end of Title 42 — reaching 11,000 per day, among the highest on record. Unsure of what might replace the policy, some migrants made a concerted effort to cross the border before Title 42 expired. Additionally, in preparation for the end of the emergency health authority that allowed the U.S. to deport migrants without a hearing, the Biden administration sent 1,500 additional troops to the border and introduced stringent regulations to blanket-deny asylum to a significant portion of migrants. In order to help migrants apply for asylum — instead of traveling to the border and running afoul of the new regulations — Biden also introduced the CBP One app (which has been basically unusable thus far ). It adds up to a border policy that has been successful in keeping migrants out after the end of Title 42, but has also frustrated some immigration advocates, who filed a legal challenge to Biden’s asylum ban in California the day it went into place. To get a sense of why the end of Title 42 has led to a surprising decrease in migrants at the U.S. southern border — and the Biden administration’s immigration goals moving forward — Nightly spoke with spoke with Muzaffar Chishti, a senior fellow at the Migration Policy Institute. This interview has been edited. Why hasn’t the end of Title 42 resulted in the predicted surge of migrants into the United States? Well, the honest answer is we don’t know. We can only speculate. In many ways, Title 42 had a salience that was kind of exaggerated. People thought that Title 42 led to expulsion of everyone and once people understood that that era has gone, people will start coming in. The fact is that most people, before it was lifted, were not subject to Title 42. By the beginning of May, only around 35 percent of people were subjected to Title 42. That means the overwhelming majority were just not put under it. If you look at the nationalities beyond Mexico and Central America, only around eight percent of people were subject to Title 42. So, in the real world, it did not make that much of a difference. The second reason is that Title 8 [an earlier immigration law that went back into effect after Title 42’s expiration] is much more punitive than Title 42, at least legally. Under Title 42, if you’re subject to it, there was no consequence. That’s why people made repeated attempts and if they didn’t get in on second or third, they could on the fourth attempt. Under Title 8, you are subject to expedited removal and under expedited removal there’s a consequence to removal. You cannot come back to the country for five years even legally, and if you do attempt to make another illegal entry you get a felony. So in some regards, it’s much more consequential and that may have gotten the word to the immigrant communities that this is much worse than Title 42 was. So there will be consequences. We think that’s part of the calculation. But perhaps more importantly, the dust has still not settled. Immigrant communities are smart. They want to see how the dice is going to roll, that ‘look, will Title 42 lead to more people being allowed to get in or more people expelled?’ And so it’s too early for them to know what the long term sustained outcome of Title 42 is. This is more of a wait and watch kind of situation than a sustained phenomenon that we can guarantee is going to be the norm. The administration is busy saying that 11,000 people were removed in the days after Title 42 was lifted. That is true, and that’s a significant rise, but 21,000 people were let in at the same time. So if you’re a smuggler or someone who follows social media, you would not see an obvious trend from that to form your long term data. What did the people who predicted that surge get wrong? They predicted that Title 42 was expelling everyone, and if you now came to the border, you would just be let in. So that’s what they got wrong. It also is true, which a lot of people have been focused on, that there was a big surge in the days preceding the lifting of Title 42. So some of the smart ones may have said ‘look, if you want to get in, the time to get in is before Title 42 is lifted,’ and that’s what led to the big surge before the lifting and then the drop after. How has Biden’s new asylum policy affected migrants in the first few weeks of its usage? Well, that’s an odd thing. First of all, the lifting of Title 42 is not the big change to me. The big change occurred because the other part of the policy, which is the transit rule, kicked in at the same time that Title 42 was lifted. It’s the congruence of these two developments that is more important. It’s the new asylum border rule which will have a more lasting impact. So under the asylum border rule, the emphasis of this administration was if you incentivize people who are going to sign papers to come to the border using the app for an appointment, and we decentivize people from coming between ports of entry by basically saying that you are deemed ineligible unless you meet one of the one of the exemptions, this will unleash a new sense of order. I think that is true, but the way they have implemented it is not fully living up to the promise of the border asylum rule. People who are getting appointments are coming to the port of entry, but instead of being screened there for asylum, they just let them into the country with a notice to appear before a judge and are asked to complete their asylum application in the country. That’s what’s happening so far, which in some ways defeats the purpose. So all the asylum processing is being done inside the country. So what are some ways in which the Biden administration is dealing with migrant flows effectively and some areas where could they improve? Laws mattered much less than resources. We just do not have resources to process thousands of people a day at the border. Just to do expedited removal, which by definition, means expedited, takes 90 minutes for an interview. That’s why Title 42 was more expedient, because you didn’t have to create any record. That’s why it was favored by the Trump administration as expediency, not as consequence. So they were concerned that 9,000 people a day would be coming. There is no way for us to detain 9,000 people. There is no way for us to screen 9,000 people for credible fear determinations. The default position has become ‘let them in.’ And that if that message gets across, that the chances of you getting into the country are 50 percent, people will take the chance. So we have to be able to pull the resources to meet the demand. We’re not sure we are there. I think if it stays at 3,000, 4,000 [encounters] a day, as they are saying the numbers are in the last, you know, week or so, I think that’s manageable. But if we start going up to 9,000-10,000, then we’ll be back to square one. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at klong@politico.com on Twitter at @katherinealong .   GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGISTER HERE .     WHAT'D I MISS? — U-Haul driver arrested for crash near White House, police say; apparent Nazi flag found on scene: Police arrested a Missouri man on multiple charges, including attempting to kidnap or kill the president , vice president or a family member, after he crashed a U-Haul into a security barrier near the White House Monday night. Around 9:40 p.m., Sai Varshith Kandula, 19, allegedly “intentionally” crashed into barriers on the north side of Lafayette Square, U.S. Park Police said in a statement this morning. — Biden nominates Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh to lead NSA, Cyber Command: President Joe Biden has nominated U.S. Air Force Lt. Gen. Timothy Haugh, the no. 2 at U.S. Cyber Command, to serve as the new head of both Cyber Command and the National Security Agency , according to an Air Force notice. The notice, obtained by POLITICO, was sent out on Monday and is titled “General Officer Nomination.” It announces that the president has nominated Haugh to the Senate for promotion to four-star general and assignment in the dual-hatted role. — White House raises alarm on risks of social media for kids: The White House and the U.S. Surgeon General warned today that social media poses mental health risks to kids and teens and they called on Congress to pass new laws to protect young people online. With those risks in mind, the Biden administration also announced the creation of a new task force to study social media and how it affects minors. And a new U.S. Surgeon General report pressed for “urgent action” by policymakers, tech companies, researchers, families and youth to better understand the impact that apps like TikTok, Instagram and YouTube have on kids’ mental health, as 95 percent of teens in the U.S. use social media. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 TAKING TO TWITTER — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis will officially announce his candidacy for president on Wednesday in a conversation with Elon Musk streamed on Twitter . The chat will be moderated by tech entrepreneur David Sacks, a friend of Musk and a financial supporter of DeSantis. The move comes as Twitter looks to ramp up its native 2024 content — Tucker Carlson will also host his new show on Twitter. FRIENDLY RIVAL — Sen. Tim Scott is running for president. Donald Trump, the Republican he’s taking on, couldn’t be more pleased, reports POLITICO’s Meredith McGraw. The former president and his aides have long viewed a crowded GOP primary as advantageous to the ex-president’s chances of winning the 2024 presidential primary race , believing a splintered field only hurts his main competitors. Scott’s entrance was judged, in part, by the question: was it good or bad for DeSantis’ chances of winning? Among the Trump faithful, the answer was, it certainly doesn’t help. “The more the merrier,” said one Trump adviser of Scott’s announcement. “Tim Scott doesn’t have to write ’Be Likable’ at the top of his notepad,” referencing a video from a 2018 DeSantis debate prep where he was advised to be “likable” to the audience. Trump aides have been buoyed in recent days by signs that the ’24 primary field is about to get crowded. Scott has jumped in and DeSantis and former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, an ally turned foe of Trump, are also expected to announce bids soon. There is a belief, internally, that any new entrant will take voters away from the Florida governor (Trump’s closest competitor for the nomination). The challenge they have is to decide which of those candidates to badger or welcome. PICK ’EM — Ron DeSantis told an audience gathered at the National Religious Broadcasters convention in Orlando Monday that over the next two presidential terms, whoever is leading the nation could be responsible for picking successors for both Justice Samuel Alito and Justice Clarence Thomas , reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout. He said that if the next president appoints someone like Chief Justice John Roberts to replace Thomas “you are actually going to see the court shift to the left.” Alito is 73 years old and Thomas is 74. DeSantis went further and said that it’s even possible that the next president may appoint successors for both Roberts and Justice Sonia Sotomayor. Roberts and Sotomayor are both 68. He made the context clear by then saying that whoever is in the White House could help create a conservative majority on the court that would “last a quarter century.” AROUND THE WORLD Journalists and members of the Independent Association of Publishers' Employees rally to call for release of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich. | Chip Somodevilla/Getty Images EXTENDED DETENTION — A Russian court today extended the detention of Wall Street Journal reporter Evan Gershkovich by three months , according to a Russian state news agency. Gershkovich was arrested in March in Yekaterinburg, Russia on espionage charges, which both the Journal and the State Department have denied. The State Department designated Gershkovich as “wrongfully detained” by Russia in April. Secretary of State Antony Blinken has spoken with Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov to call for Gershkovich’s release; a rare communication between high-level U.S. and Russian officials during Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. The court’s decision will now keep Gershkovich detained until at least Aug. 30.   DON’T MISS POLITICO’S HEALTH CARE SUMMIT : The Covid-19 pandemic helped spur innovation in health care, from the wide adoption of telemedicine, health apps and online pharmacies to mRNA vaccines. But what will the next health care innovations look like? Join POLITICO on Wednesday June 7 for our Health Care Summit to explore how tech and innovation are transforming care and the challenges ahead for access and delivery in the United States. REGISTER NOW .     NIGHTLY NUMBER $100,000 The amount of money that Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) paid at an impromptu fundraising auction for chapstick used by House Speaker Kevin McCarthy . McCarthy sweetened the deal — which took place during the GOP conference this morning — by agreeing to attend a dinner with donors or supporters of whoever won. RADAR SWEEP WATER SAVER — A crisis over a long term water shortage in states around the Colorado River appears to have reached a temporary conclusion. The solution: pay farmers not to farm . The farmers around the Colorado River were using up about 80 percent of the water reserves, and thanks to a fairly wet winter, the federal government has budgeted enough relief that they can convince farmers to give up some crop output in exchange for cash. This, in turn, frees up water resources for other people who live along the river or rely on it for clean water. Read Jake Bittle on the deceptively simple solution — and why it might just work — in Grist. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 2012: Egyptian men wait in line to cast their votes outside a polling center, in Giza, Egypt. More than 15 months after autocratic leader Hosni Mubarak's ouster, Egyptians streamed to polling stations to freely choose a president for the first time in generations. Ultimately, Mohamed Morsi prevailed, but was ousted in a military coup in July of 2013. | Mohammed Asad/AP Photo Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong   FOLLOW US

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POLITICO NIGHTLY: Why the writers strike is about much more than Hollywood

View in browser   BY CALDER MCHUGH Members of the Writers Guild of America picket outside Fox Studios today in Los Angeles. | Ashley Landis/AP Photo SHOW STOPPER — As the clock hit midnight, the Writers Guild of America went on strike after over 15 years of labor peace. Your favorite shows won’t stop immediately — with most television produced well in advance, the two sides still have some runway to work out their differences before TV shows abruptly begin to end . The same goes for new movie releases. But this year’s work stoppage is about much more than the programming that fills up screens. There are issues surrounding the WGA strike that reach well beyond the soundstages of Hollywood. There are clear parallels between the concerns at the heart of the writers’ strike and other looming worker actions around the country. At the heart of the WGA’s complaints is that a shift in strategy towards streaming content from studios has turned writers into gig workers with no job security — an issue that also has implications for the 340,000 or so workers at UPS whose contract is up later this year. “The companies’ behavior has created a gig economy inside a union workforce, and their immovable stance in this negotiation has betrayed a commitment to further devaluing the profession of writing,” the WGA said in a statement. As more shows come online due to streaming, studios have begun what are colloquially referred to as “mini-rooms” — writers’ rooms, or groups of writers, who collaborate on scripts — for shows that have yet to be greenlit. Writers working in these “mini-rooms” are often paid less, due to the fact that not all of their work reaches streaming platforms. And even when shows are greenlit, the way writers make residuals — back pay from shows that go into syndication or air frequently — has been thrown off as well, due to the switch to streaming. If these all sound like problems ripe for discussion at a dinner party in Silver Lake, Los Angeles, you wouldn’t be wrong. But setting aside the Hollywood specifics, the issue of the gig economy is roiling unions around the country. A central problem that UPS drivers have is that they are now competing directly against gig workers like drivers for DoorDash and seasonal Amazon employees. “We want to keep our work. We want to not destroy the jobs that we have. We don’t want gig jobs. We don’t want Uber Eats or DoorDash,” said Local 804 president Vinnie Perrone earlier this year . Meanwhile, executives’ responses to worker demands this year are largely the same, no matter the industry. They argue that unions should examine the state of the broader economy before making demands — that if they authorize too significant of a pay bump in a time of deep economic uncertainty and broad-based layoffs, the whole industry could be imperiled. This is true whether you’re driving for UPS or writing television, senior officials in both camps say. As of today, around 11,000 film and television writers are on strike. When they leave their posts, though, it’s not only scribes that Hollywood loses. Most late-night shows have plans to go dark immediately, depriving networks of programming and other workers on these shows of paychecks. The same is true of any shows in production that have ground to a halt. As the strike drags on, these losses will add up. The 2007-08 writers’ strike, which lasted 100 days, cost the state of California’s economy alone an estimated $2.1 billion . In the 15 years between the end of the 2008 strike and today, the WGA estimates that the industry’s profits have ballooned and writers’ pay has failed to keep up. But there’s a fight over burgeoning technology that complicates their argument and could presage labor disagreements across the country: the use of artificial intelligence. In the WGA’s strike announcement, they included an update on where negotiations stand. Summarizing their proposal on AI , they wrote, in part, “AI can’t write or rewrite literary material; can’t be used as source material.” The Alliance of Motion Picture and Television Producers rejected this proposal and countered by offering annual meetings to discuss advancements in technology. Major economic disputes between the WGA and the AMPTP have happened for decades. But disagreements over AI are new. Programs like ChatGPT are not yet advanced enough to write a competent episode of television (the mind travels naturally to a Simpson’s joke : Mr. Burns having monkeys writing on typewriters, and a monkey coming up with “it was the best of times, it was the blurst of times”). There is, however, fear that AI could immediately help studios devalue writers’ work, another worry shared across industries. “The immediate fear of AI isn’t that us writers will have our work replaced by artificially generated content,” screenwriter C. Robert Cargill tweeted today . “It’s that we will be underpaid to rewrite that trash into something we could have done better from the start.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on Twitter at @calder_mchugh .   GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGSITER HERE .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Ex-officer Thao convicted of aiding George Floyd’s killing: A former Minneapolis police officer who held back bystanders while his colleagues restrained a dying George Floyd has been convicted of aiding and abetting manslaughter . Tou Thao, who had already been convicted in federal court of violating Floyd’s civil rights, was last of the four former officers facing judgment in state court in Floyd’s killing. He rejected a plea agreement and, instead of going to trial, let Hennepin County Judge Peter Cahill decide the verdict based on written filings by each side and evidence presented in previous cases. — Zeldin ‘keeping an eye’ on NY run versus Gillibrand: Former Republican Rep. Lee Zeldin acknowledges a potential run against New York Democratic Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand would be an uphill battle, but the Republican isn’t completely ruling out a campaign against her in 2024 . “We’ll keep an eye on the race,” Zeldin said while at the state Capitol on Monday to visit with lawmakers. “If we did run, it would be an extremely competitive race.” Zeldin challenged current New York Gov. Kathy Hochul in 2022 and received nearly 47 percent of the vote. — Both parties dig in on debt limit : Congressional leaders are digging in ahead of next week’s White House meeting on the debt limit , with House Democrats prepping a Hail Mary while Republicans wait on President Joe Biden to meet them at the table. The GOP’s insistence on Democratic concessions in the debt talks makes it highly unlikely that House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries will succeed in his latest pitch: an arcane procedural maneuver that requires Republican support in order to jam Speaker Kevin McCarthy into voting on a “clean” hike to the nation’s borrowing limit. Jeffries’ plan landed with a thud among Republicans who want to see Biden give ground first, despite the Treasury Department’s warning that the nation could exhaust its ability to pay bills as early as June 1. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 PICK UP THE TAB — It remains unclear who’s paying for some of Gov. Ron DeSantis’ travel expenses . In late February, a jet owned by the company associated with the Fontainebleau Hotel flew from Tallahassee to Newark ahead of DeSantis’ appearance on Staten Island. That same day a jet owned by a central Florida developer flew from Newark to Philadelphia to Chicago to Tallahassee when the governor also made stops that same day in Pennsylvania and Illinois, reports POLITICO’s Gary Fineout . Who paid for these flights? The governor’s office said no taxpayer money was spent on these flights in connection with DeSantis’ three-city stop that day. A spokesperson who has been affiliated with the governor’s political operation declined to comment. There was nothing listed in the governor’s political committee campaign finance report for February. AROUND THE WORLD Ukrainian army snipers change their position facing Russian troops near Bakhmut today. | Libkos/AP Photo PARADE PR — After missing multiple self-imposed deadlines for capturing Bakhmut, Russia continues to throw more of its soldiers into the grinding battle in the Donetsk region in a desperate bid for something to tout during next week’s Victory Day parade in Moscow, writes Veronika Melkozerova . Russia celebrates the Soviet victory over Nazi Germany in World War II every year on May 9, and President Vladimir Putin has used the holiday to boost his image as a strongman over the course of his decades in power. But this year’s celebrations will be somewhat muted, with Putin canceling parades in Russia’s Kursk and Belgorod regions, which border Ukraine, and in Russian-occupied Crimea, citing security concerns. With Moscow now in the second year of its full-scale war on Ukraine and no sign of imminent victory, Putin is pushing to win a battle to sell to Russians on May 9. But with the U.S. estimating that 20,000 Russian soldiers have been killed in Ukraine since December and a further 80,000 injured, Kyiv is determined to rob Putin of any positive PR, and Ukrainian forces are digging in, with heavy fighting continuing around Bakhmut. Though Russia reportedly controls most of Bakhmut, Cherevatyi said Ukraine still holds the western part of the town and that supply routes are open. Although Russians are throwing more soldiers at their positions, Kyiv’s forces say they are holding the line and have even managed to take back some territory. “Russia’s attempt at a winter offensive in the Donbas largely through Bakhmut has failed,” said White House National Security Council spokesman John Kirby.   DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 1,500 The number of active-duty troops that the Biden administration is planning to send to the southern border ahead of an expected influx of migrants seeking asylum. The move comes as Title 42, the public-health law that permits the U.S. to deny asylum and migrations claims for public health reasons, is set to expire on May 11. RADAR SWEEP SPACED OUT — The European Space Agency is investing heavily in cleaning up space. Since the first satellite was launched in 1957, over 11,000 have followed. With our exploration of space has come associated debris , which is now floating unattended to in the atmosphere. Far from the earth, all that trash might sound harmless. But with it comes attendant concerns of potential in-orbit collisions, or space debris coming back to earth — like in May 2020, when a town in the Ivory Coast heard a boom of sound and then found a long pipe from a Chinese rocket that had been launched eight days earlier. Isabelle Mayault reports on the shape that the cleanup effort is taking for The Dial, a global news magazine. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1994: Nelson Mandela, African National Congress leader, and Coretta Scott King, widow of slain civil rights leader Martin Luther King, Jr., sing and dance at a victory celebration for Mandela in Johannesburg after Mandela and the ANC took the majority of the votes in the country's first integrated elections. | David Brauchli/AP Photo Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Katherine Long @katherinealong   FOLLOW US

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