Middleboro Review 2: 02/18/22

Friday, February 18, 2022

POLITICO Nightly: A war Putin can lose

A family walks past a tank displayed at the Motherland Monument in Kyiv, Ukraine. | Chris McGrath/Getty Images

GEOPOLITICAL GENIUS? — We might be overestimating Vladimir Putin.

That’s what two former ambassadors to Ukraine told Nightly this week as the world waits to learn whether the Russian president will begin the largest war in Europe since the 1940s. Despite the widespread sentiment that Putin has the West playing by his rules, the Russian president doesn’t seem to understand Ukraine too well, said William Taylor, a former ambassador to Ukraine and the vice president of Russia and Europe at the U.S. Institute of Peace.

“He thinks that if anybody speaks Russian, they’re going to be supporting him and Russia. Turns out, Mr. Putin, that’s not the case,” said Taylor, who served as ambassador from 2006 to 2009 and again as acting ambassador from 2019 to 2020. “In particular, since Russians invaded Ukraine in 2014, the Ukrainian people, no matter if they speak Russian, Ukrainian, Hungarian, or German, they hate President Putin.”

Ukrainians’ feelings toward Putin won’t do much to stop a potential invasion, one that U.S. military and intelligence assessments suggest could leave up to 50,000 civilians dead or wounded, lead to the collapse of Kyiv within days and spur a humanitarian crisis with up to 5 million refugees. “As of this moment, I am convinced he has made the decision,” to invade Ukraine, President Joe Biden said today, citing “significant intelligence capability” for his assessment.

But if Putin thinks this level of catastrophe will do anything to change Ukraine’s perception of Russia, it’s a “massive fail,” said Steven Pifer, a former ambassador to Ukraine from 1998 to 2000 and now a William J. Perry fellow at Stanford.

The nearly-200,000 troops lined up for an attack, Pifer said, have galvanized NATO and increased the West’s support for Kyiv.

“It’s a huge miscalculation,” Pifer said.

Not only have NATO and Europe stuck together, but also Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky hasn’t blinked — likely surprising Putin, Taylor said. Now the Russian president is faced with a choice: back down, agree to the proposals on the table and appear weak, Pifer said, or invade and accept a costly war.

The war would be devastating for Ukraine, Taylor said. The U.S. assesses that Russia has between 169,000 and 190,000 personnel in and near Ukraine, including troops on the border, in Belarus, occupied Crimea and other Russian-led forces in eastern Ukraine. Western officials are warning that new provocations and shellings in eastern Ukraine’s breakway regions mean Putin could use the violence as a pretext to launch an attack.

“My biggest concern is the number of Ukrainians that will be killed, and it’s gonna be military and civilian. The Russians have the capabilities,” Taylor said, from ballistic missiles and aircrafts to naval ship mounted artillery and missiles. “I’ve got a lot of friends there, and I worry about that.”

To understand the current moment, we have to look at Putin’s choices over the last decade in particular, Pifer said. While Putin’s policies have long alienated Ukraine, his actions in 2014 hardened Ukrainians’ anti-Russia sentiments, he said. Russia invaded and annexed Crimea and threw its support behind conflict in Ukraine’s Donbas region soon after. The fighting, which began more than seven years ago, has killed more than 14,000 people.

Now 62 percent of Ukrainians support their country joining NATO, the highest percentage since 2014, according to Rating, a Ukrainian polling agency. Given NATO’s unwillingness to agree to further enlargement right now, it’s sort of a non-issue, Pifer said. But the figure does reflect Ukraine’s shift in attitude — and the unlikely prospect that Russia would be able to exert the kind of influence over Kyiv that it wants any time soon, Pifer said.

Putin is misjudging the ability of his military to invade at a relatively low cost, Pifer said, and he’s likely underestimating the degree of resistance he’ll face from Ukrainians.

“I was there two weeks ago,” Pifer said. “And people are basically saying if the Russians come, I’m going to get a gun.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. A programming note: We’ll be off this Monday, Feb. 21, for President’s Day. But we’ll be back and better than ever Tuesday, Feb. 22. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mward@politico.com, or on Twitter at @MyahWard.

JOIN THURSDAY TO HEAR FROM MAYORS ACROSS AMERICA: The Fifty: America’s Mayors will convene mayors from across the country to discuss their policy agendas, including the enforcement of Covid measures such as vaccine and mask mandates. We’ll also discuss how mayors are dealing with the fallout of the pandemic on their local economies and workforce, affordable housing and homelessness, and criminal justice reforms. REGISTER HERE.

WHAT'D I MISS?

— White House tries to woo Republicans on SCOTUS, with trepidation: Biden is actively looking for Republican support for his Supreme Court nominee. But he’s doing it cautiously, wary of setting expectations that end in failure. Neither party anticipates the type of rancorous, ugly battle that has defined recent high court picks, but White House officials are trying to handle conversations with GOP lawmakers delicately in a way that avoids unwanted attention. Aides have already had to push back on Republican criticism of the president’s pledge to choose a Black woman to replace retiring Justice Stephen Breyer.

— FDA learned of suspected infant formula illness four months before recall: The FDA first received a report of a foodborne illness suspected to be linked to infant formula in September — four months before issuing a recall of three major brands this week after four babies were hospitalized and one died, according to a Minnesota agency. The sweeping recall on Thursday of Similac, Alimentum and EleCare — amid a widespread shortage of infant formula on store shelves — comes after reports of illnesses came to FDA and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention between September and December. The Minnesota Department of Health investigated a case of an infant who was sickened by Cronobacter sakazakii in September 2021, the state agency told POLITICO.

Baby formula is offered for sale at a big box store in Chicago. | Scott Olson/Getty Images

— Newsom announces Texas-style bill that would allow residents to sue gun makers: California Gov. Gavin Newsom is getting the gun control version of Texas’ abortion law that he called for in December. State Sen. Bob Hertzberg (D-Van Nuys) on Friday unveiled new legislation that would allow Californians to sue makers and sellers of assault weapons, .50 BMG rifles, ghost guns or ghost gun kits. Officials didn’t go into the details of the bill, but made it clear that it’s based on a Texas law allowing people to sue abortion providers.

— Kim Potter sentenced to two years in Daunte Wright’s death: Kim Potter, the former suburban Minneapolis police officer who said she confused her handgun for her Taser when she fatally shot Daunte Wright, was sentenced today to two years in prison, a penalty that drew outrage from Wright’s family as too lenient . Potter was convicted in December of first- and second-degree manslaughter in the April 11 killing of Wright, a 20-year-old Black motorist. She was sentenced only on the more serious charge in accordance with state law.

— Fed adopts broad new rules barring officials from most trades: The Federal Reserve, roiled by a series of stock trading scandals in recent months, has adopted sweeping new rules restricting trading by central bank officials. The rules approved this week will prohibit board members, regional Fed bank presidents, staff and their immediate family members from investing in anything beyond diversified mutual funds and exchange-traded products.

DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.

NIGHTLY NUMBER

$5 billion

The amount Biden administration officials told members of Congress they need at in additional funds to keep battling the Covid-19 pandemic overseas — far less than agencies originally suggested would be needed to vaccinate the global population and provide funding, staff and other forms of relief to hard-hit regions.

PUNCHLINES

TRUMPENFREUDE — That’s the phrase Matt Wuerker uses to describe how the president’s opponents feel after his week of legal troubles and political headaches. Matt’s Weekend Wrap of the best in political satire and cartoons covers Trump and many more of the week’s headlines.

PARTING WORDS

German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock and U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken sit next to each other at a foreign ministers talk round during the 58th Munich Security Conference. | Ronald Wittek - Pool/Getty Images

AS IF THERE WASN’T ENOUGH GOING ON — The Munich Security Conference, the annual gathering of powerful decision-makers, can add one more event to its agenda this weekend: the Iran nuclear talks.

As officials signal an agreement may be nearing, European nuclear negotiators are expected to travel to Munich this weekend to keep talks going during the conference over reviving the Iran nuclear deal, which limited Tehran’s nuclear ambitions in exchange for broad sanctions relief, Stephanie Liechtenstein writes. Also attending will be Iranian Foreign Minister Hossein Amirabdollahian and senior U.S. officials like Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Vice President Kamala Harris.

Meanwhile, other delegations will stay behind in Vienna, where talks have been ongoing for months. There, diplomats will continue the formal discussions, not wanting to risk any interruption as negotiators reach the precipice of a potential deal.

Enrique Mora, the senior EU official responsible for coordinating and overseeing the talks, will keep working on what officials hope will be the final text of a deal. He’ll be joined in Vienna by Iran’s chief negotiator, top Russian and Chinese negotiators, as well as U.S. Special Envoy for Iran Robert Malley, according to one senior Western official with direct knowledge of the matter.

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Fox News is taking notice

Fox News is taking notice:

That’s right (though, we’d usually call those “moderates” corporate Democrats). We’re challenging longtime incumbents who cater to the interests of their corporate donors, because it’s time for progressive fighters to upend the status quo in the Democratic Party.

Right now, corporate PAC money flows into the hands of out-of-touch incumbents and the DNC from Big Oil, Wall Street, Big Pharma, health insurance executives, credit card companies, big banks, and the list goes on. The result? Policies that we desperately need, like Medicare for All and a Green New Deal, get pushed aside for what corporate lobbyists want.

These primaries are about changing those politics by expanding the Squad and sending more Justice Democrats to D.C.

Here at Justice Democrats, we know that we can’t just elect more Democrats, we need to elect better Democrats. Our slate of candidates don’t take a dime of corporate PAC money; we unapologetically run campaigns on Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, canceling student debt, and a long list of progressive policies the people want and need.

The Squad has proven that they’re willing to fight for the people and vote against the vast majority of Democrats when they know it’s the right thing to do. We need to add more Justice Democrats to Congress to make our votes even more powerful.

Chip in $10 today and help us elect our slate of six Justice Democrats this year, and re-elect the Squad. We need fighters in Congress to fight for the people, not corporations and lobbyists.

In solidarity,

Justice Democrats

Do not worry if you cannot afford to make a contribution — we understand that this is a difficult time. If you’re struggling, you can find a food bank here. We appreciate everything you do to keep our movement strong.

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What you deserve

I want to tell you something:

You deserve great healthcare.

You deserve to not live in poverty.

You deserve fully funded public schools. You deserve quality housing, clean air, clean water, and internet. You deserve safe roads and bridges to walk on and drive over. You deserve rapid public transit. And you deserve justice and community safety.

But far too many of our politicians and lawmakers believe that asking for these things, or even wanting them to begin with, is radical.

What a joke.

So many lawmakers in Kentucky ignore us and tell us that we’re not deserving of these things. They say that wanting to feel safe and cared for — to lead a dignified life — is radical. All while they turn their backs on us to make themselves richer, more powerful, and more corrupt.

Look. I’ve lived in poverty. I’ve been unhoused. I’ve lost family members to gun violence. I am still paying off my student loans. And I know that when our politicians ignore our struggles, or wave them off as “radical” — our pain only continues.

That’s exactly why I’m running for Senate. Because something has to change. And I know that together, we have the power to change the future of Kentucky.

Thank you,

Charles

Email us: info@charlesbooker.org

Contributions to Booker for Kentucky are not deductible for federal income tax purposes. To contribute via check, please address to PO Box 4369, Louisville, KY 40204.

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Parents need Congress to step up

If you ask me who I am, I would first and foremost say I’m a single mom. Second, I’m a Member of Congress.

I see firsthand how much pressure families are under right now. Parents need their government to step up and support them and their families, that’s why I’m continuing to fight for:

Affordable, reliable, quality childcare.
Paid leave so that people can take time off to care for a new child or sick loved one.
A tax system that makes sure the ultra-wealthy pay their fair share, and doesn’t punish single parents and families.
Affordable healthcare and prescription drugs.

The pandemic only exacerbated many of the issues facing families and now we have a real chance to create a better future for them. Sign my petition to show your support for passing legislation that will support families.

Special interests and giant corporations have drowned out the voice of families for far too long. Thanks to your support, I’ll be able to continue standing up to their greed and fighting for California families.

—Katie

Congresswoman Katie Porter is fighting for affordable child care, lower cost prescription drugs, climate action, and a strong, stable, globally competitive economy that works for everyone. She’s standing up to corporate special interests and doesn’t take any money from corporate PACs or lobbyists, so we rely on grassroots supporters like you pitching in when they can. Make a contribution today.

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Hello!

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But just as importantly, every contribution is a powerful statement of solidarity for our movement. It’s standing up and saying “I believe in the future we’re fighting for, and I will do my part to make that future a reality.”

We have an opportunity to send a champion for Medicare for All, the Green New Deal, canceling student debt, raising the minimum wage and so much more to Congress. But we can’t do it without you.

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Low turnout, high impact: What this week’s recall results mean for our campaign

Earlier this week, voters in San Francisco made a clear statement that they wanted a new direction for the School Board in our city.

But here’s something that has gone relatively unnoticed: Voter participation was shockingly low.

The data from the recall election shows that voter participation likely won’t even break 35%. That’s incredibly low -- even for a special election.

With outside GOP mega-donors spending millions to reverse our movement, we know how urgently we need to mobilize our voters to the polls to have a chance in the June election. That’s why we announced the launch of our field program -- to make sure every single San Franciscan hears what’s at stake in the upcoming election.

Will you help us get this program off on the right foot by donating any amount to our campaign today?

Here's what your generosity will help us achieve:

Hiring and paying our field staff, who will be responsible for meeting San Franciscans where they are to talk about the stakes of this recall.
Designing and printing materials to educate our neighbors about our office and the facts of this recall.
Building out a large enough field program to stop Republicans from repealing all the progress we've made.

This can’t be done without your support. So today, we’re asking you to make a contribution of any amount. Your generosity will go directly toward our efforts to connect with voters all across San Francisco:

Team Chesa BoudinThanks for helping us build this campaign,

Chesa Boudin was elected District Attorney of San Francisco in 2019 to reform our criminal justice system. Now, right-wingers want to reverse our progress and return our city to a time when innocent people were locked away and police acted with impunity.

Please chip in today to keep up the fight to reform San Francisco's criminal justice system.

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RSN: FOCUS: Charles Pierce | The Entire Scummy Infrastructure of Trump's Business Career Is Beginning to Crumble

18 February 22

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URGENT AND IMMEDIATE APPEAL FOR DONATIONS — It is — very — important to get moving on donations, right here right now. Yes we do need the money. Yes some people have helped. But we have to have a good month, whatever it takes. As of right now it’s not happening. With urgency.
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FOCUS: Charles Pierce | The Entire Scummy Infrastructure of Trump's Business Career Is Beginning to Crumble
Charles Pierce, Esquire
Pierce writes: "The former First Family was dealt a decisive blow in a New York courtroom on Thursday."

The former First Family* was dealt a decisive blow in a New York courtroom on Thursday.

New York Attorney General Letitia James has most of the former First Family* halfway up the tree and, on Thursday, most of the former First Family* heard the branches creak ever louder. From CNN:

New York Supreme Court Judge Arthur Engoron issued his ruling the same day that he held a contentious two-hour hearing over the matter. The Trumps were seeking to quash the subpoenas from Attorney General Letitia James, while she was asking the court to order them to comply. On several occasions throughout the hearing, the judge expressed skepticism toward the Trumps' arguments that sitting for testimony in the civil investigation would undermine their constitutional rights…

"In the final analysis, a State Attorney General commences investigating a business entity, uncovers copious evidence of possible financial fraud, and wants to question, under oath, several of the entities' principles, including its namesake," Engoron wrote. "She has the clear right to do so.”

Not just evidence, but copious evidence. “Copious,” from the Latin meaning, “Busted, dude.”

Now, pending a useless appeal, which the former First Family* undoubtedly will lose, not only El Caudillo del Mar-a-Lago, but also his son, Sluggo, and Ivanka, will have to put their hands on the Bible and, assuming it doesn’t burst into flames on the spot, they will have to answer for a couple of lifetimes' worth of deceit. And they will do so full in the knowledge that, as AG, James has the power to dissolve corporate entities found to have engaged in widespread fraud. The desperation seems to have filtered down to their lawyers.

The former President also has filed a request to freeze James' investigation altogether, saying she's engaged in a political and selective prosecution and is improperly biased against him. The judge was skeptical of those arguments as well, pushing back on claims from Trump's lawyer Alina Habba that the attorney general was discriminating against Trump on the basis of his political views. Habba at one point said the attorney general's office should be asked whether it intends to investigate Hillary Clinton for supposedly spying on Trump Tower -- a reference to a recent legal filing in special counsel John Durham's investigation that has been mischaracterized by conservative media.

No, the rules of Fox News jurisprudence will not be applying to these proceedings.

It has been fascinating to watch all the scams and dodges that he’s used to build his fabulous career suddenly fall away, as all the phantom mechanisms driving that career become visible and, as a result, evaporate. The entire infrastructure of his life is crumbling. He presides over rubble now, the ruler of a kingdom made of bones.

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