Showing posts with label BEN CARDIN. Show all posts
Showing posts with label BEN CARDIN. Show all posts

Monday, November 27, 2023

POLITICO Nightly: What happens when the Israel-Hamas truce ends?

 


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BY CALDER MCHUGH

Presented by the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition

Families of hostages and their supporters participate in a special Havdallah (a Jewish ritual ending Shabbat) service ahead of Israeli hostages being released from Gaza and brought back to Israel.

Families of hostages and their supporters participate in a special Havdallah (a Jewish ritual ending Shabbat) service ahead of Israeli hostages being released from Gaza and brought back to Israel on Nov. 25, 2023 in Tel Aviv. | Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images

PRESSING PAUSE — After a pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas was extended today for two more days, Hamas released 11 more Israeli hostages — nine children and two women — with plans to release more Tuesday.

The pause is welcome news for Israelis advocating to get family members and friends back, and also has allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, where weeks of bombing have left many Gazans homeless and without access to basic needs. Israel has also released Palestinian prisoners as part of the agreement. But as the reprieve stretches into this week, questions remain — what will the conflict look like on the other side of the pause in fighting? Just how long will war stretch, and how brutal will it get?

The answers to those questions will be shaped by any number of variables, not all of them tactical or strategic. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is under intense scrutiny in the country for not seeing the attacks on Oct. 7 coming, and he faces international pressure to slow a skyrocketing death toll in Gaza. To discuss Israel’s political situation and the state of the war, Nightly turned to Erin Banco , a national security reporter at POLITICO who’s reported extensively on the conflict . This conversation has been edited.

What does the extension in the pause in fighting tell us about how each side currently views the conflict?

I think it indicates that both sides see an extension in the pause as beneficial to their position. It does two things: One, it allows for their fighters and forces to rest and rebuild and two, it allows for the release of additional hostages. This extended pause is something the U.S. has pushed for behind the scenes in the wake of increasing demand from inside Gaza for more fuel and humanitarian aid.

What are the contours of the domestic political pressures on Netanyahu? Are there coalitions in Israel pushing for longer pauses?

I would say that generally what we’re seeing inside Israel among the population is support for the government’s proposed strategy of eliminating Hamas. But the people also want to see their family members returned home. And it seems like the hostages can most easily be released during a pause in fighting. Netanyahu, who has come under scrutiny for his government’s handling of Oct. 7 (namely that it failed to prevent the attack), has to walk a tightrope here. He was already on thin ice before Oct. 7. Now, he needs to balance his promise on Hamas while also ensuring the safety of the hostages. And on top of that, he’s also under pressure from the U.S. to reduce the humanitarian suffering in Gaza.

What about internationally? What specific role has international pressure in the U.S. and elsewhere played in getting the Israeli government to negotiate a longer ceasefire?

We’ve seen an extraordinary number of people — from civilians to lawmakers to senior officials — calling for a pause in fighting. Protests have stretched across the globe. In the last few weeks, those calls have grown even louder. The pressure from the U.S. administration’s side has grown fiercer as well, particularly following the IDF’s occupation of al-Shifa Hospital and its bombardment of other hospitals in Gaza. Doctors have reported horrifying conditions in those kinds of facilities. I don’t think we can downplay the extent to which the international concern over the humanitarian situation on the ground has influenced Israel’s decision-making. But we also know that Israel has been steadfast in its messaging that it does not plan on backing down or turning away from fighting Hamas in Gaza. I would expect fighting to resume. The question is whether that fighting will resume before all the hostages are released or after.

In their military campaign thus far, how significantly has Israel weakened Hamas or their hold on Gaza?

It’s really tough to say. The flow of information out of Gaza is extremely limited. One thing I will say is that-- having been to Gaza to cover the war in 2014-- Hamas’ grip on the strip is significant. It has fortified itself, building an extensive network of tunnels and military outposts. Its militants are also embedded within the population, making them difficult to pinpoint and fight without risking civilian lives. Gaza is extremely dense, making it difficult for the IDF to navigate and root out Hamas.

Remember Fallujah? Gaza is way denser, so it poses even more of a challenge for the IDF.

What’s next in the conflict — is there a real chance for longer, extended pauses in fighting that could deliver even more hostages back? What do the next 3 or 6 months look like?

With one deal done, I’d say there is a chance for another deal down the line on hostages. And I assume that would also include an extended pause in fighting. That could be tacked on to this deal, but I’m not sure how tense the situation is right now between the two sides. They seem to have worked out a minor issue on the list of hostages’ names today . But that doesn’t mean they’re willing to continue to work on these negotiations right now. There could be another spate of fighting followed by another negotiation. Or, all of the hostages could be released in the coming weeks. I don’t know. But we do know that the fighting will continue, at some point. And I think it will take the IDF some time to eliminate Hamas like it has promised not only because of how entrenched Hamas is in Gaza, but also because the U.S. is pressuring Israel to conduct limited, targeted strikes.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .

 

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WHAT'D I MISS?

— Pentagon: Suspected Somali pirates behind cargo ship attack in the Middle East: The five armed individuals who attacked a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Aden over the weekend were from Somalia, a Pentagon spokesperson said today, citing initial assessments. The incident was “clearly … piracy-related,” Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters. The Defense Department is still assessing whether the attackers have any ties to the Houthi rebels in Yemen, he added.

— Johnson ‘confident and optimistic’ about Israel, Ukraine funding package’s chances: Speaker Mike Johnson believes Congress will be able to pass additional funds to help Israel and Ukraine before the holidays — provided lawmakers are able to coalesce around border security policy changes sought by Republicans. “I think all of that will come together in the coming days,” he said at an event in Sarasota, Fla. Johnson said there’s a “sense of urgency” in getting aid to both Israel and Ukraine, adding there is “a lot of thoughtful negotiation, ongoing” among members of Congress. He said he was texting with senators involved in those talks during his flight from Louisiana to Florida today. The recently installed speaker said assistance to Israel was a “top priority” for the U.S. and called helping Ukraine “another priority.”

— Senate Foreign Relations chair does not support conditions on U.S. aid to Israel: Senate Foreign Relations Chair Ben Cardin said today he does not support placing conditions on U.S. aid to Israel amid its ongoing battle against Hamas, a wedge issue that’s divided congressional Democrats. “I don’t think there’s a need for conditionality,” Cardin (D-Md.) told reporters, acknowledging “war is horrible” amid thousands of civilian casualties. Cardin, who’s retiring following this term, also said he would not support pursuing a permanent ceasefire in the conflict beyond the days-long pause in fighting currently underway.

 

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here .

 
 
NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

TRUMP’S ACA THREAT — Very few events bring aides on President Biden’s re-election campaign more joy than when former President Donald J. Trump threatens to repeal popular Democratic policies.

So when Mr. Trump, the Republican presidential front-runner, wrote on social media over the holiday weekend that he was “seriously looking at alternatives” to the 13-year-old Affordable Care Act, and that his fellow Republicans should “never give up” seeking its repeal, Mr. Biden’s campaign was happy to cede its programming decisions to Mr. Trump, writes the New York Times.

The president’s campaign altered its previous plans and instead will spend much of this week amplifying Mr. Trump’s threat , which was less a substantive policy proposal he had considered thoughtfully than it was a reaction to an editorial he had read in The Wall Street Journal.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

The leader of Civic Coalition Party in Poland, Donald Tusk delivers speech at a rally.

The leader of Civic Coalition Party in Poland, Donald Tusk delivers speech at a rally on Oct. 10, 2023 in Lodz. | Omar Marques/Getty Images

TERM LIMITED — Polish President Andrzej Duda today swore in a new government headed by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki — whose term in office is likely to be only a maximum of 14 days , reports POLITICO EU.

That’s because Morawiecki and his Law and Justice (PiS) party lost the October 15 general election to a coalition of opposition parties. Even though PiS is the largest grouping in the new parliament, with 191 MPs, the three opposition parties that have promised to form a government led by former PM Donald Tusk have 248 seats — enough for a solid majority in the 460-member parliament.

Still, Duda insisted that Morawiecki get the first chance at trying to form a government.

“We are fulfilling a constitutional custom by appointing a government that represents the grouping that won the parliamentary election,” Duda said during today’s ceremony.

However, despite several weeks of trying to hold talks with opposition MPs, Morawiecki was unable to show that any other parties were willing to work with him.

In a sign of the real import of the ceremony, the speakers of both the parliament and the upper chamber Senate didn’t bother showing up. Now Morawiecki has two weeks to present his program to parliament and try to win a vote of confidence. If — as is almost certain — that fails, then parliament gets to choose a candidate for prime minister, which will allow Tusk to return to an office he left in 2014.

HACKATHON — Russia’s notorious hacking group Fancy Bear is targeting European governments with cyberattacks , the European Union’s cyber emergency response team has warned officials in a note seen by POLITICO.

At least seven European governments have been targeted with spearphishing campaigns, which include using custom-tailored lures to target specific, high-profile targets to download malicious software or give away access to digital systems.

Fancy Bear, also known as APT28, is a Russian intelligence-affiliated hacking group that the United States said was behind the 2016 hacks of the Democratic National Committee, which contributed to Donald Trump’s election win. The group was also sanctioned by EU authorities in 2020 for the 2015 hack of the German Bundestag.

The group “is leveraging diverse decoy documents to lure victims, including the meeting minutes of a subcommittee of the European Parliament and a report from a United Nations Special Committee,” the note read.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

Around 50 percent

The percent increase in the value of existing agreements to save or transfer water as the result of deals to save Colorado River water, according to a POLITICO investigation. The Colorado River, which has started to dry up in recent years, provides water to 40 million people and waters important farmland in the U.S. In May, a three-year $1.2 billion pact was struck between California, Arizona and Nevada to conserve the water, but it’s turning into a windfall for some of the most powerful farmers and tribes in the West.

RADAR SWEEP

NEWS ‘FOR YOU’ — Young adults are getting their news from TikTok — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, Rolling Stone magazine reports. As news interactions decline from other social media websites, such as Instagram and Facebook, an increased number of people are reporting they get their news from the short video app TikTok. The trend has left news organizations questioning whether to meet that demand for news on the app — should these sites be creating news videos for TikTok, an app not designed for news sharing? Despite the concerns, the rise in news consumption on TikTok still provides a glimpse of hope for news continuing to circulate on social media, even when it’s become a dying art on other platforms. CT Jones dives into how video journalists are translating stories into one-minute clips and what it could mean for the future of news.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1978: San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk were shot to death at City Hall. Pictured, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, presided over by then-president and acting Mayor Dianne Feinstein (top left) bow their heads in silence.

On this date in 1978: San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk were shot to death at City Hall. Pictured, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, presided over by then-president and acting Mayor Dianne Feinstein (top left) bow their heads in silence. | A. Cope/AP

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Learn more and tell Congress to say no to defunding data security by rejecting the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.

 
 

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Tuesday, May 2, 2023

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Jamie Dimon’s rescue mission

 


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BY BEN WHITE

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon at a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing.

JPMorgan Chase CEO Jamie Dimon at a Senate Banking, Housing and Urban Affairs Committee hearing. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

BIG AND BIGGER — Readers will be forgiven if it felt like 2008 all over again today, as giant mega-bank JPMorgan Chase and its charismatic but controversial CEO Jamie Dimon swooped in to buy up much of the assets of failing California lender First Republic and (hopefully) bring an end to the latest crisis in the banking system.

The deal, under which JPMorgan will take on all of First Republic’s deposits both insured and uninsured, drew the expected round of rebukes from progressive Democrats like Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.).

“The failure of First Republic Bank shows how deregulation has made the too big to fail problem even worse,” Warren tweeted . “A poorly supervised bank was snapped up by an even bigger bank—ultimately taxpayers will be on the hook. Congress needs to make major reforms to fix a broken banking system.”

Both JPMorgan and President Biden tried to counter Warren, arguing that while Dimon’s giant bank is getting some backstop from the FDIC for potential losses on some of First Republic’s loans, the deal does not actually put taxpayer money at risk.

“These actions are going to make sure the banking system is safe and sound, and that includes protecting small businesses across the country,” Biden said of the deal, which followed the federal rescues and full deposit guarantees in March for Silicon Valley and Signature banks. “Depositors are being protected, shareholders are losing their investments and, critically, taxpayers are not the ones who are on the hook.”

Dimon, for his part, had even less time for critics like Warren who believe JPMorgan is getting a sweetheart deal and that giant banks like his shouldn’t even exist. “I don’t really care about gossip from other people,” Dimon said in response to a reporter’s question about critics arguing the purchase was unfair. “We bank countries, we bank the IMF, we bank the World Bank. You need large, successful banks, and anyone who thinks it would be good for the United States of America not to have that should call me directly.”

Dimon and JPMorgan — the most storied banking franchise in the nation’s history with roots dating to Aaron Burr’s founding of Manhattan Bank in 1799 — faced similar criticism during the 2008 and 2009 crisis when they swept up the smoldering ashes of failed lender Washington Mutual and cratered investment bank Bear Stearns with help from the federal government. But even in both these cases, JPMorgan took on much of the residual problems with both institutions, resulting in nearly $20 billion in regulatory settlements.

To be sure, the First Republic purchase was not an act of purely patriotic altruism, though it may bring a close at least to the current phase of bank meltdowns. These meltdowns came after SVB, Signature and First Republic found themselves with enormous deposits over the FDIC-insured cap of $250,000 and saddled with bond and other investments that have plunged in value as the Fed has rapidly boosted interest rates to battle inflation.

Depositors sensed that their money was at risk and abandoned all three. In the first two cases, the FDIC took on responsibility for all deposits. In this case, they don’t have to, which is why JPMorgan won out over other bidders. The FDIC is required to accept the bid that will wind up costing its deposit insurance fund the least.

But JPMorgan is getting valuable assets from a long-admired California institution that boasts the kind of high-net worth individuals every big bank covets. And the bank said it expects to at least make some money off the deal. JPMorgan’s stock rose around 2 percent on today, indicating shareholders also believe the deal is a good one.

This is clearly not the kind of headline the Biden administration wanted — “Nation’s Largest Bank Gets Bigger!” — but it’s not clear there was a better alternative that would not have spiked recession risk. And Warren and other progressives directed much of their ire at deregulation that took place during the Trump administration for creating the conditions that allowed all three banks to collapse in the first place.

As for JPMorgan, financial historian John Steele Gordon noted to POLITICO that it’s neither hero nor villain in the current situation. “Banks are seldom if ever heroic. That’s not their job," he said. “So they’ll always demand a deal that will keep them whole… Banks have been getting fewer in number for decades now, and that’s a good thing, up to a point, as large banks are much safer than small ones."

Whether or not we have passed that point where JPMorgan is simply too large and powerful is one that can only be addressed and potentially solved by significant new legislation, something not happening anytime soon. For now, Americans can at least be relieved that this part of the Fed-induced financial sector drama is probably over. There aren’t many more out there like SVB, Signature and First Republic. But there is plenty of danger potentially still lurking in other corners.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at bwhite@politico.com or on Twitter at @EconomyBen .

 

GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGSITER HERE .

 
 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— McCarthy defends Ukraine aid: Speaker Kevin McCarthy offered his most forceful backing of continued U.S. aid to Ukraine in its war against Russia during a press conference following remarks to Israel’s Knesset today. Responding to a Russian reporter, McCarthy made clear his support for Ukraine in its war with Russia. "I support aid for Ukraine," he said to applause. "I do not support what your country has done to Ukraine. I do not support your killing of the children either. And I think for one standpoint, you should pull out, and I don’t think it’s right and we will continue to support because the rest of the world sees it just as it is." McCarthy has repeatedly hedged on continued Ukrainian aid, which has divided congressional Republicans, by saying he would not continue to offer a "blank check" to Ukraine.

— Cardin not running for reelection: Maryland Democratic Sen. Ben Cardin will not seek reelection in 2024 , his spokesperson Sue Walitsky confirmed this morning. Cardin has served in the Senate for three terms and his vacancy will create a wide-open race to succeed him in the blue state.

— Inslee won’t seek fourth term: Washington Gov. Jay Inslee announced today that he would not seek a fourth term , kicking off what will likely be a competitive primary on the West Coast. Inslee, a Democrat, was first elected to the post in 2012, and subsequently won reelection in 2016 and 2020. He briefly ran for president in 2020 as well, suspending his campaign in the summer of 2019 and pivoting to running for governor and winning a third term.

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

Students from the Miami-Dade County Public Schools School for Advanced Studies-Wolfson campus protest during a statewide walkout. The students joined with others across the state for school walkouts in protest of what they say is an assault on educational freedom by Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Republican-controlled legislature.

Students from the Miami-Dade County Public Schools School for Advanced Studies-Wolfson campus protest during a statewide walkout. The students joined with others across the state for school walkouts in protest of what they say is an assault on educational freedom by Gov. Ron DeSantis and the Republican-controlled legislature. | Joe Raedle/Getty Images

WISH LIST — With just one left week to go in the annual legislative session, Florida’s Republican-led lawmakers have largely delivered on Gov. Ron DeSantis’ top policy priorities — but there are still a handful of items left unfulfilled, writes POLITICO’s Gary Fineout.

While DeSantis has clearly succeeded in pushing GOP lawmakers to support his long list of legislative requests, lawmakers resisted passing a bill that made it easier to sue journalists, and the legislation is now dead. It even received push-back from conservative media outlets. And although legislators are likely to pass the governor’s signature immigration overhaul, they likely won’t include some key provisions, including a repeal of the state law that allows some undocumented students to qualify for in-state tuition rates. DeSantis has rolled out a host of high-profile legislation in Florida ahead of a possible presidential run.

 

DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE .

 
 
AROUND THE WORLD

INDEPENDENCE NOW — French Polynesia has elected a pro-independence party , giving fresh impetus to long-standing calls for a referendum in France’s sprawling overseas territory in the South Pacific, writes Sam Wilkin .

The Tavini Huiraatira party, led by former president Oscar Temaru, won an absolute majority in the Assembly of French Polynesia, taking 38 of the 57 seats, French newspaper Le Figaro reported. The assembly will elect a president of the territory for a five-year term later this month, who could then push an independence bid.

French Polynesia already has a degree of autonomy, with responsibility for policies including health care, primary and secondary education, and the environment. In this regard it is closer to British and Dutch overseas territories than to other French possessions such as Réunion and Guadeloupe, which are treated the same as continental departments. Nevertheless, Paris retains control over issues such as higher education and defense policy. Independence has been an issue for decades: Temaru founded the Front de libération de la Polynésie, which would later become Tavini Huiraatira, in 1977.

Winning an absolute majority may give Tavini Huiraatira its best shot yet at independence, though this will need approval from Paris.

DOUBLE LIFE — In April 2008, a senior British intelligence official flew to Tel Aviv to deliver an explosive revelation to his Israeli counterparts: Britain had a mole in Iran with high-level access to the country’s nuclear and defense secrets. On Jan. 11, the execution in Iran of a former deputy defense minister named Alireza Akbari on espionage charges brought to light something that had been hidden for 15 years: Mr. Akbari was the British mole , the New York Times reports. Mr. Akbari had long lived a double life. To the public, he was a religious zealot and political hawk, a senior military commander of the Revolutionary Guards and a deputy defense minister who later moved to London and went into the private sector but never lost the trust of Iran’s leaders. But in 2004, according to the officials, he began sharing Iran’s nuclear secrets with British intelligence.

NIGHTLY NUMBER

June 1

The date the U.S. could breach its debt limit by, according to comments from Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen today. The latest guidance increases pressure on congressional leaders and the White House, laying out a shorter timeline to strike a deal to raise the debt ceiling.

RADAR SWEEP

ALL EYES ON ME — As celebrities from around the globe descend on New York City this evening to celebrate the annual Met Gala — the fashion industry’s most high-profile event of the year — this year’s theme has turned some off . Rather than honor a movement or a style, this year’s event has chosen to honor a person: late designer Karl Lagerfeld, who died in 2019, and his giant body of work. Lagerfeld had a huge influence on the industry, but also made contentious comments over the years — about the #MeToo movement and immigrants into Europe, among others. Read Channing Hargrove on his legacy in the digital media project andscape.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 2011: President Barack Obama reads his statement to photographers after making a televised statement on the death of Osama bin Laden from the East Room of the White House.

On this date in 2011: President Barack Obama reads his statement to photographers after making a televised statement on the death of Osama bin Laden from the East Room of the White House. | Pablo Martinez Monsivais/AP Photo

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Trump admits humiliating defeat in pool debacle

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