POLITICO Nightly: What happens when the Israel-Hamas truce ends?

 

BY CALDER MCHUGH Presented by the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition Families of hostages and their supporters participate in a special Havdallah (a Jewish ritual ending Shabbat) service ahead of Israeli hostages being released from Gaza and brought back to Israel on Nov. 25, 2023 in Tel Aviv. | Alexi J. Rosenfeld/Getty Images PRESSING PAUSE — After a pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas was extended today for two more days, Hamas released 11 more Israeli hostages — nine children and two women — with plans to release more Tuesday. The pause is welcome news for Israelis advocating to get family members and friends back, and also has allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, where weeks of bombing have left many Gazans homeless and without access to basic needs. Israel has also released Palestinian prisoners as part of the agreement. But as the reprieve stretches into this week, questions remain — what will the conflict look like on the other side of the pause in fighting? Just how long will war stretch, and how brutal will it get? The answers to those questions will be shaped by any number of variables, not all of them tactical or strategic. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is under intense scrutiny in the country for not seeing the attacks on Oct. 7 coming, and he faces international pressure to slow a skyrocketing death toll in Gaza. To discuss Israel’s political situation and the state of the war, Nightly turned to Erin Banco , a national security reporter at POLITICO who’s reported extensively on the conflict . This conversation has been edited. What does the extension in the pause in fighting tell us about how each side currently views the conflict? I think it indicates that both sides see an extension in the pause as beneficial to their position. It does two things: One, it allows for their fighters and forces to rest and rebuild and two, it allows for the release of additional hostages. This extended pause is something the U.S. has pushed for behind the scenes in the wake of increasing demand from inside Gaza for more fuel and humanitarian aid. What are the contours of the domestic political pressures on Netanyahu? Are there coalitions in Israel pushing for longer pauses? I would say that generally what we’re seeing inside Israel among the population is support for the government’s proposed strategy of eliminating Hamas. But the people also want to see their family members returned home. And it seems like the hostages can most easily be released during a pause in fighting. Netanyahu, who has come under scrutiny for his government’s handling of Oct. 7 (namely that it failed to prevent the attack), has to walk a tightrope here. He was already on thin ice before Oct. 7. Now, he needs to balance his promise on Hamas while also ensuring the safety of the hostages. And on top of that, he’s also under pressure from the U.S. to reduce the humanitarian suffering in Gaza. What about internationally? What specific role has international pressure in the U.S. and elsewhere played in getting the Israeli government to negotiate a longer ceasefire? We’ve seen an extraordinary number of people — from civilians to lawmakers to senior officials — calling for a pause in fighting. Protests have stretched across the globe. In the last few weeks, those calls have grown even louder. The pressure from the U.S. administration’s side has grown fiercer as well, particularly following the IDF’s occupation of al-Shifa Hospital and its bombardment of other hospitals in Gaza. Doctors have reported horrifying conditions in those kinds of facilities. I don’t think we can downplay the extent to which the international concern over the humanitarian situation on the ground has influenced Israel’s decision-making. But we also know that Israel has been steadfast in its messaging that it does not plan on backing down or turning away from fighting Hamas in Gaza. I would expect fighting to resume. The question is whether that fighting will resume before all the hostages are released or after. In their military campaign thus far, how significantly has Israel weakened Hamas or their hold on Gaza? It’s really tough to say. The flow of information out of Gaza is extremely limited. One thing I will say is that-- having been to Gaza to cover the war in 2014-- Hamas’ grip on the strip is significant. It has fortified itself, building an extensive network of tunnels and military outposts. Its militants are also embedded within the population, making them difficult to pinpoint and fight without risking civilian lives. Gaza is extremely dense, making it difficult for the IDF to navigate and root out Hamas. Remember Fallujah? Gaza is way denser, so it poses even more of a challenge for the IDF. What’s next in the conflict — is there a real chance for longer, extended pauses in fighting that could deliver even more hostages back? What do the next 3 or 6 months look like? With one deal done, I’d say there is a chance for another deal down the line on hostages. And I assume that would also include an extended pause in fighting. That could be tacked on to this deal, but I’m not sure how tense the situation is right now between the two sides. They seem to have worked out a minor issue on the list of hostages’ names today . But that doesn’t mean they’re willing to continue to work on these negotiations right now. There could be another spate of fighting followed by another negotiation. Or, all of the hostages could be released in the coming weeks. I don’t know. But we do know that the fighting will continue, at some point. And I think it will take the IDF some time to eliminate Hamas like it has promised not only because of how entrenched Hamas is in Gaza, but also because the U.S. is pressuring Israel to conduct limited, targeted strikes. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .   A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition: Some politicians are trying to defund data security by passing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill, serving your private financial data to hackers on a silver platter. But you can stop them. Learn more and tell Congress to stop the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Pentagon: Suspected Somali pirates behind cargo ship attack in the Middle East: The five armed individuals who attacked a commercial vessel in the Gulf of Aden over the weekend were from Somalia, a Pentagon spokesperson said today, citing initial assessments. The incident was “clearly … piracy-related,” Brig. Gen. Patrick Ryder told reporters. The Defense Department is still assessing whether the attackers have any ties to the Houthi rebels in Yemen, he added. — Johnson ‘confident and optimistic’ about Israel, Ukraine funding package’s chances: Speaker Mike Johnson believes Congress will be able to pass additional funds to help Israel and Ukraine before the holidays — provided lawmakers are able to coalesce around border security policy changes sought by Republicans. “I think all of that will come together in the coming days,” he said at an event in Sarasota, Fla. Johnson said there’s a “sense of urgency” in getting aid to both Israel and Ukraine, adding there is “a lot of thoughtful negotiation, ongoing” among members of Congress. He said he was texting with senators involved in those talks during his flight from Louisiana to Florida today. The recently installed speaker said assistance to Israel was a “top priority” for the U.S. and called helping Ukraine “another priority.” — Senate Foreign Relations chair does not support conditions on U.S. aid to Israel: Senate Foreign Relations Chair Ben Cardin said today he does not support placing conditions on U.S. aid to Israel amid its ongoing battle against Hamas, a wedge issue that’s divided congressional Democrats. “I don’t think there’s a need for conditionality,” Cardin (D-Md.) told reporters, acknowledging “war is horrible” amid thousands of civilian casualties. Cardin, who’s retiring following this term, also said he would not support pursuing a permanent ceasefire in the conflict beyond the days-long pause in fighting currently underway.   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here .     NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 TRUMP’S ACA THREAT — Very few events bring aides on President Biden’s re-election campaign more joy than when former President Donald J. Trump threatens to repeal popular Democratic policies. So when Mr. Trump, the Republican presidential front-runner, wrote on social media over the holiday weekend that he was “seriously looking at alternatives” to the 13-year-old Affordable Care Act, and that his fellow Republicans should “never give up” seeking its repeal, Mr. Biden’s campaign was happy to cede its programming decisions to Mr. Trump, writes the New York Times. The president’s campaign altered its previous plans and instead will spend much of this week amplifying Mr. Trump’s threat , which was less a substantive policy proposal he had considered thoughtfully than it was a reaction to an editorial he had read in The Wall Street Journal.   A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition:     AROUND THE WORLD The leader of Civic Coalition Party in Poland, Donald Tusk delivers speech at a rally on Oct. 10, 2023 in Lodz. | Omar Marques/Getty Images TERM LIMITED — Polish President Andrzej Duda today swore in a new government headed by Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki — whose term in office is likely to be only a maximum of 14 days , reports POLITICO EU. That’s because Morawiecki and his Law and Justice (PiS) party lost the October 15 general election to a coalition of opposition parties. Even though PiS is the largest grouping in the new parliament, with 191 MPs, the three opposition parties that have promised to form a government led by former PM Donald Tusk have 248 seats — enough for a solid majority in the 460-member parliament. Still, Duda insisted that Morawiecki get the first chance at trying to form a government. “We are fulfilling a constitutional custom by appointing a government that represents the grouping that won the parliamentary election,” Duda said during today’s ceremony. However, despite several weeks of trying to hold talks with opposition MPs, Morawiecki was unable to show that any other parties were willing to work with him. In a sign of the real import of the ceremony, the speakers of both the parliament and the upper chamber Senate didn’t bother showing up. Now Morawiecki has two weeks to present his program to parliament and try to win a vote of confidence. If — as is almost certain — that fails, then parliament gets to choose a candidate for prime minister, which will allow Tusk to return to an office he left in 2014. HACKATHON — Russia’s notorious hacking group Fancy Bear is targeting European governments with cyberattacks , the European Union’s cyber emergency response team has warned officials in a note seen by POLITICO. At least seven European governments have been targeted with spearphishing campaigns, which include using custom-tailored lures to target specific, high-profile targets to download malicious software or give away access to digital systems. Fancy Bear, also known as APT28, is a Russian intelligence-affiliated hacking group that the United States said was behind the 2016 hacks of the Democratic National Committee, which contributed to Donald Trump’s election win. The group was also sanctioned by EU authorities in 2020 for the 2015 hack of the German Bundestag. The group “is leveraging diverse decoy documents to lure victims, including the meeting minutes of a subcommittee of the European Parliament and a report from a United Nations Special Committee,” the note read.   GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK : Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     NIGHTLY NUMBER Around 50 percent The percent increase in the value of existing agreements to save or transfer water as the result of deals to save Colorado River water, according to a POLITICO investigation. The Colorado River, which has started to dry up in recent years, provides water to 40 million people and waters important farmland in the U.S. In May, a three-year $1.2 billion pact was struck between California, Arizona and Nevada to conserve the water, but it’s turning into a windfall for some of the most powerful farmers and tribes in the West. RADAR SWEEP NEWS ‘FOR YOU’ — Young adults are getting their news from TikTok — but that’s not necessarily a bad thing, Rolling Stone magazine reports. As news interactions decline from other social media websites, such as Instagram and Facebook, an increased number of people are reporting they get their news from the short video app TikTok. The trend has left news organizations questioning whether to meet that demand for news on the app — should these sites be creating news videos for TikTok, an app not designed for news sharing? Despite the concerns, the rise in news consumption on TikTok still provides a glimpse of hope for news continuing to circulate on social media, even when it’s become a dying art on other platforms. CT Jones dives into how video journalists are translating stories into one-minute clips and what it could mean for the future of news. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1978: San Francisco Mayor George Moscone and Supervisor Harvey Milk were shot to death at City Hall. Pictured, the San Francisco Board of Supervisors, presided over by then-president and acting Mayor Dianne Feinstein (top left) bow their heads in silence. | A. Cope/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition: Your security is on hackers’ wish list this year and some lawmakers are trying to put defunding data security under the tree by passing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill. If the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill becomes law, it could put millions of credit card transactions at much greater risk of hacking, fraud and identity theft. Washington should protect our private financial data, not make it easier for cyber criminals to hack into your wallet this holiday season. Learn more and tell Congress to say no to defunding data security by rejecting the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: Phil Eng spills the T

 

BY LISA KASHINSKY , KELLY GARRITY AND MIA MCCARTHY ‘THE T IS DOING BUSINESS DIFFERENTLY’ — Phil Eng wants to rebuild riders’ trust in the MBTA. But first he has to rebuild the transit system — literally. Swaths of the Green Line shut down today for tunnel and rail work. That includes nighttime service suspensions on the Green Line Extension to fix tracks that are too narrow for trains to safely go full speed — a stunning failure reportedly known as far back as April 2021 and seemingly ignored by the T until Eng took over as general manager. “We’re working very closely with the design team to put that in the rearview mirror,” Eng told Playbook. “Our goal is to go through every project, openly and transparently. If there are issues to address, let’s put them on the table and let’s tackle them as soon as we know them and not let them linger. And I think that’s a culture shift that we’re trying to instill.” Eng has lofty goals for the T: clearing all slow zones by the end of next year; hiring more workers (he’s already met Gov. Maura Healey’s goal of hiring 1,000 this year); improving the transit authority’s internal and external communications; and winning back riders lost to telework and because the system is unreliable. And his optimism about achieving them appears unshaken by the sheer magnitude of the growing list of problems he’s pledging to fix. “We're rebuilding the organization to a can-do organization, to one that solves problems, and one that thinks outside the box,” Eng said. “The T is doing business differently." But Eng's progress could stall without more money. The T is facing a staggering $24.5 billion price tag to bring its aging equipment and facilities into a state of “good repair.” It’s also bracing for a potentially several-hundred-million-dollar budget shortfall . Eng pointedly wouldn’t put a number on how much more money he wants from the Legislature. "I don’t expect $24.5 billion tomorrow. And if someone were able to provide us with those types of numbers, we couldn’t spend that kind of money in a single year anyway,” he said. But having a “long-term, sustainable funding source” can better help the T plan its improvement projects, he said. Here are a few more excerpts from Playbook’s interview with Eng , edited and condensed for length: MBTA GM Phil Eng (second from left) is undertaking the daunting task of trying to turn around the beleaguered transit system. | AP You’re awaiting the results of Boston’s fare-free bus pilot program. Do you think the T can be free if you need ridership revenue to pay for the fixes you’re trying to make?  Safe, reliable and robust service is what will bring people back. Just making sure that they are getting what they deserve and it's affordable is important. As far as free fares in the future and reduced fares, those are all conversations that have to be had at a much higher level. Would you say that safety outweighs lowering the cost of fares? Absolutely. Safety is the No. 1 important priority. If it’s not safe, regardless of the cost, I would not expect anybody to be using the system. And I will not even ask my employees to operate the system if it’s not safe. Does anyone give you a hard time for being a Mets fan? I think it would be worse if I was a Yankees fan. GOOD MONDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS . We hope you had a great Thanksgiving! And we hope you didn't watch that Patriots game. Oof. TODAY — Healey is on GBH’s “Boston Public Radio” at noon. Rep. Lori Trahan visits Family Services of the Merrimack Valley in Lawrence at 10 a.m. and announces federal funding at Haverhill’s Bradford fire station at noon. Tips? Scoops? Birthdays? Email us: lkashinsky@politico.com , kgarrity@politico.com and mmccarthy@politico.com .   GO INSIDE THE CAPITOL DOME: From the outset, POLITICO has been your eyes and ears on Capitol Hill, providing the most thorough Congress coverage — from political characters and emerging leaders to leadership squabbles and policy nuggets during committee markups and hearings. We're stepping up our game to ensure you’re fully informed on every key detail inside the Capitol Dome, all day, every day. Start your day with Playbook AM, refuel at midday with our Playbook PM halftime report and enrich your evening discussions with Huddle. Plus, stay updated with real-time buzz all day through our brand new Inside Congress Live feature. Learn more and subscribe here.     MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS CATCH UP — A work-permit clinic for migrants resumes today while critical funding for the emergency family shelter system that’s housing them remains tied up in the Legislature. Pressure is rising on lawmakers to settle their differences over a $2.8 billion supplemental budget that includes $250 million for the shelter system and raises for thousands of state workers. Housing Secretary Ed Augustus said “we desperately need” the shelter money on WCVB’s “On the Record.” And Republican lawmakers who hold unusual power over the fate of the spending bill are pressing House and Senate negotiators to start moving the collective bargaining agreements forward even if a deal on the broader bill isn’t done. Meanwhile, families who are on the waitlist for emergency housing are still staying in converted conference rooms at a state transportation building. MBTA general manager Phil Eng told Playbook that he will “continue to be as supportive as I can” as the state seeks longer-term solutions for families in need. Augustus cast the setup as a “short-term bridge” until more community and faith-based groups open temporary overnight shelter sites through the United Way of Massachusetts Bay’s grant program. Catholic Charities Boston opened a site last week and Augustus said more are on the way “soon.” — “Massachusetts National Guard teaming up with state, nonprofits to provide winter clothing to migrants,” by Lance Reynolds, Boston Herald: “Officials expect the effort to serve roughly 94 hotel sites and 71 traditional shelters and scattered sites, reaching 9,000 children.” — “Democratic cities brace for a nightmare winter housing migrants,” by Shia Kapos, Lisa Kashinsky and Katelyn Cordero, POLITICO: “Northern cities and states that have been overwhelmed by a surge in migrants are now out of room to house them just as the weather turns cold — a potentially life-threatening situation that’s inflaming local political tensions as the Biden administration largely leaves these Democratic strongholds to fend for themselves.” DATELINE BEACON HILL — “ Digging into fine print of salary range legislation, ” by Bhaamati Borkhetaria, Commonwealth Beacon: “A bill requiring employers to disclose salary ranges on all their job postings is making its way through the Massachusetts Legislature, but a check with other states that have gone this route suggests the law may not be the huge breakthrough its sponsors are hoping for nor the terrible burden employers have complained about.” — “ Student Opportunity Act still lacks accountability, data, reports claim ,” by Eden Mor, Greenfield Recorder: “Now, four years into the implementation of the SOA, experts like Jamie Gass at Pioneer Institute, a public policy research center, suggest that the state of education in Massachusetts is on the precipice of chaos, partially due to some of the act’s failings.” — “ Lawmakers are pushing to revitalize cultural districts across Mass. ” by Lindsay Schachnow, Boston Business Journal. FROM THE HUB KEEP IT CIVIL — Fresh off saying she has the votes to become the next Boston City Council president — and being anonymously accused by two of her colleagues of being unprofessional about it — Ruthzee Louijeune issued a call for civility on WBZ’s “Keller @ Large.” When the council resets in January, it’s “incredibly important that we continue to set a tone of collegiality,” she said. — “At Mass. and Cass, Boston health commission puts millions toward private security,” by Sean Cotter, Boston Globe: “They have been fixtures over the last two years in the thick of the open drug market known as Mass. and Cass: armed, uniformed guards and their marked vehicles patrolling for signs of violence or property damage. … They are members of a private security force that the Boston Public Health Commission has contracted to help secure the area — at a cost of more than $2.3 million this calendar year alone.” — “BPD report states officer driving Mayor Wu ‘did contribute’ to June crash,” by Danny McDonald, Boston Globe.   GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK : Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12.. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     BIDEN TIME People react as President Joe Biden walks by as he visits local shops with family in Nantucket, Mass., Saturday, Nov. 25, 2023. (AP Photo/Stephanie Scarbrough) | AP MEANWHILE, ON NANTUCKET — President Joe Biden continued his tradition of celebrating the Thanksgiving holiday on Nantucket, spending the weekend lunching with his family and shopping. But it was not a quiet and quaint vacation . Biden had multiple national security briefings on Friday as the first group of hostages was released by Hamas, the Associated Press reports . Pro-Palestinian protesters also interrupted the president’s events around the island , including on his way to a family lunch and during a Christmas tree lighting. Elsewhere in Massachusetts, members of the state's congressional delegation lauded the temporary truce and ongoing hostage exchange between Hamas and Israel, and called in statements for the cease-fire to be extended. Sens. Elizabeth Warren and Ed Markey and House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark also urged progress toward a two-state solution. THE LOCAL ANGLE — "Balance of power poised to flip on Everett School Committee after election," by Niki Griswold, Boston Globe: "Just weeks after a municipal election that unseated or rejected most of [Mayor Carlo DeMaria's] candidates for the School Committee, the lame-duck board is poised to appoint a new superintendent to replace the one he and his allies had forced out earlier this year despite objections from members of the school community. — “Milton Select Board votes to take down Israeli flag after intense debate among residents,” by Peter Blandino, Patriot Ledger: “On Nov. 14, a diverse group of citizens called Milton Residents for Palestinian Rights asked that the Palestinian flag be displayed alongside the Israeli flag. The board had voted unanimously to display the Israeli flag Oct. 8, the day after the Hamas attack on Israeli civilians.” — "Suspect arrested in shooting of 3 Palestinian college students in Vermont, police say," by Elizabeth Wolfe, Sara Smart and Celina Tebor, CNN. MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE — “How Dean Phillips could change the electoral math for Republicans in New Hampshire,” by Lisa Kashinsky, POLITICO: “Dean Phillips isn’t likely to hurt Joe Biden in New Hampshire. But his entry into the Democratic primary could spoil Nikki Haley and Chris Christie’s electoral math here. The two Republicans are polling better than any other candidate with New Hampshire independents who are likely to pull a GOP ballot in the state’s open presidential primary. … But by challenging Biden, Phillips gave those voters another choice.” — “NH weathering Mass. sports betting blitz,” by Michael Cousineau, Union Leader: “For every full month since Massachusetts mobile sports betting went live March 10, New Hampshire saw fewer total dollars wagered but often garnered higher gross gaming revenues than the same month the previous year.” HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH CALLING HOURS — For former MassDems leader John Walsh are from 4 p.m. to 8 p.m. at SEIU 1199 in Quincy. A celebration of life will be held at 11 a.m. tomorrow in the Great Hall at Faneuil Hall. HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Catherine Carlock of the Boston Globe and Andy Hoglund . NEW HORSE RACE ALERT: OOPSGIVING — Would it even be Thanksgiving if we didn’t serve you up a blooper reel? Thank you to our loyal listeners. Subscribe and listen on iTunes and SoundCloud . Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com .   Follow us on Twitter Lisa Kashinsky @lisakashinsky Kelly Garrity @KellyGarrity3   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters FOLLOW US

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