Tuesday, August 16, 2022

POLITICO NIGHTLY: Liz Cheney’s next campaign

 

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BY DAVID SIDERS

With help from Joanne Kenen

A Liz Cheney yard sign in Wyoming.

A yard sign for Liz Cheney in Laramie, Wyoming. | Alex Wong/Getty Images

‘PURE SPOILER’ — Every indication is that Liz Cheney is about to lose her seat in Congress tonight.

If the polls are right in Wyoming, Cheney may end up with as little as 30 percent of the vote. The real question, then, is what comes next for the Wyoming Republican — a presidential run, as some speculate?

The idea is not as outlandish as it sounds. Sure, she would be the longest of longshots. Republicans are still all-in for Donald Trump, and there isn’t a single state where Cheney, his most prominent critic in the GOP, would seem likely to gain any traction with the party’s rank-and-file.

But winning the nomination might be beside the point. If stopping Trump — or a Trump acolyte — is the goal, Cheney could do some real damage.

If Trump doesn’t run — or if he is weakened, as appeared possible earlier this year, before the FBI search at Mar-a-Lago rallied his potential opponents around him — there is a scenario in which an entire raft of Trump-ian Republicans will be seeking the party’s presidential nomination in 2024.

Cheney’s lonely crusade against Trump has generated a donor base and a political network that could keep her competitive if she chose to run. And in a big field of Trump-ers, Cheney has a lane. It’s the one she’s been cornering every time she ripped into Trump this year, and it’s the inverse of the one Trump himself used to win the nomination — and ultimately reshape the GOP — in 2016.

Against a big collection of establishment candidates that year, Trump finished second in Iowa, the first-in-the-nation caucus state, with about 24 percent of the vote. He won New Hampshire and South Carolina with only about a third of the Republican electorate pulling for him. There were just too many more traditional candidates splitting the rest of the vote.

That kind of dynamic could exist for Cheney if she can quickly clear other traditionalist Republicans, like Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, out of the way.

There is also one other way Cheney could prevent Trump from becoming president again. She could run against him as an independent.


Reps. Bennie Thompson and Liz Cheney during the Jan. 6 hearings. | Drew Angerer/Getty Images

Cheney has suggested she’s not interested in party-switching. But if Trump becomes the nominee in 2024 and Cheney wants to stop him, there will be intense pressure for her to. Cheney herself has said she’ll do “ whatever it takes ” to keep Trump out of the Oval Office.

Unlike some other independent candidates, Cheney’s family name, conservative voting record and opposition to abortion rights would likely render her more likely to pull votes from Trump than President Joe Biden, or whoever Democrats nominate in 2024.

That sliver of the electorate that Cheney will win in Wyoming tonight? In a presidential election decided at the margins, that might be enough in some swing states to keep Trump out of the White House. Not enough for Cheney to win, but enough to drag him down.

“The pure spoiler candidate” is how Mike Madrid, a Republican strategist who was a co-founder of the anti-Trump Lincoln Project, put it.

“To me, that would be the smartest tactical move,” he said. “Clearly that’s what the math says. That’s the best way to stop him from becoming president.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at dsiders@politico.com or on Twitter at @davidsiders. Keep up with tonight’s election results on POLITICO’s live pages for Alaska and Wyoming. You can also tune into our live chat to follow along with our politics team’s minute-by-minute analysis.

 

STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.

 
 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— Biden signs landmark domestic bill: Biden today signed a historic climate, health care and tax bill , saying his administration is in “a season of substance” after the legislation lingered on his domestic agenda for more than a year. In a speech, Biden ticked off a list of provisions he said would accelerate the nation’s clean energy push, lower health costs and bolster the economy. And he argued the sweeping reforms represented the latest evidence for keeping his party in power come November.

— First lady tests positive for Covid: First lady Jill Biden today tested positive for Covid-19, coming down with the virus roughly a week after the president ended isolation for his own rebound case. Biden had tested negative for Covid on Monday during her regular testing cadence, her communications director Elizabeth Alexander announced in a statement today. But the first lady began developing cold-like systems later Monday evening, when she checked again and a PCR test returned positive results.

— NBA won’t play on Election Day: The National Basketball Association won’t host games on Election Day this year in an effort to increase voter turnout, the organization announced today. In the months before Election Day — which is on Tuesday, Nov. 8 — teams will distribute information about the voting process and registration in their respective states.

— Former Rep. T.J. Cox arrested by FBI in California: The FBI arrested former one-term Democratic Rep. T.J. Cox on dozens of charges related to financial fraud , according to public records with the Fresno County Sheriff’s Office. The arrest took place around 8:30 a.m. at the federal courthouse in Fresno, Calif. A statement from the Justice Department said the former congressman was charged with “15 counts of wire fraud, 11 counts of money laundering, one count of financial institution fraud, and one count of campaign contribution fraud.” Cox came to Congress in the 2018 Democratic wave, defeating Rep. David Valadao (R-Calif.) in a battleground district. He lost his 2020 rematch with Valadao by about 1,500 votes.

AROUND THE WORLD

PLAYING DIRTY As the Saudi-backed LIV Golf tournament prepared for its launch this year, it quietly contracted the public relations giant Edelman for help, write Hailey Fuchs and Daniel Lippman.

The relationship, which ended in March, was never filed with the Department of Justice under foreign lobbying rules. Instead, it was done through subsidiaries — marketing agency United Entertainment Group and golf marketing firm Performance54.

The arrangement illustrates the degree to which LIV Golf has been able to lean on establishment institutions and professionals even amid a controversial rollout of a tour that has roiled professional golf and captured lawmakers’ attention in Washington. Ari Fleischer, who was press secretary in the Bush White House, has done public relations work for LIV, and Trump has offered his own endorsement of the tour — by holding an event at his Bedminster, N.J., golf club in late July. Trump National Doral will also host the tour in October.

In recent weeks, controversy around the LIV golf series increased after a number of family members of 9/11 victims urged Trump to cancel the scheduled tournament at his New Jersey golf club due to the tour’s Saudi backing. They noted Trump had previously cast blame on Saudi Arabia for the terrorist attacks and that it was “incomprehensible to us that a former president of the United States would cast our loved ones aside for personal financial gain.”

A photo of Silvio Berlusconi surrounded by reporters.

Silvio Berlusconi in 2018. | Pier Marco Tacca/Getty Images

COMEBACK KID — As a billionaire property tycoon, media magnate and three-time prime minister of Italy, Silvio Berlusconi’s career has already spanned decades.

In recent years, however, his profile has been much diminished, writes Hannah Roberts . Thanks to illness, he has often appeared at party events by video link, and was banned from public office in Italy for four years after a tax fraud conviction.

Yet now 85, when most people his age would be putting their feet up, the former Italian prime minister has decided to stand for election. “That way everyone would be happy,” he told Rai radio with his inimitable self-assurance.

Bar a miracle, the election on Sept. 25 is likely to produce a triumphant right-wing coalition, with Berlusconi as the kingmaker, buying him a position of influence for the next five years. Not so long ago, it seemed Berlusconi’s political career was behind him, destroyed by the so-called bunga bunga scandal, in which witnesses described orgies at his lavish villa outside Milan, and his fraud conviction. But now, after some time on the sidelines, Berlusconi is back. Read the full story here.

 

INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

90 percent

The amount of Russian visas Finland’s government will slash due to Moscow’s ongoing war on Ukraine . Foreign Minister Pekka Haavisto said that starting from September, Finland would accept only 10 percent of visa applications by Russian tourists. This means Finland will accept only around 100 visa applications daily, compared with around 1,000 successful applications per day presently.

PARTING WORDS

FROM THE HEALTH DESK — It’s no secret that people who live in low-income, largely minority neighborhoods have lots of health problems and an overlapping set of social challenges. Or that navigating health and social services is often an aggravating, alienating, bureaucratic maze, Joanne Kenen, Commonwealth Fund journalist-in-residence at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, emails Nightly.

The Health Hub of Virginia Commonwealth University in the East End of Richmond aims to address those problems, with an array of health, community and social services in one bright, airy space. It’s part of a growing movement to co-locate and connect various health and social services — to address “social determinants of health,” factors like homelessness, joblessness and poor education.

In March, Biden pledged $50 million to pilot programs that are doing exactly what VCU has modeled — providing services in “non-traditional settings like libraries, community centers, schools, and homeless shelters.”

Next door to VCU’s Health Hub is a grocery store, planted in what had been a “food desert,” that was started and remains subsidized by a local philanthropist. Above are some subsidized housing units. Nearby, a center that trains culinary workers. The hope is that this sort of one-stop shopping can provide a model for places around the country that are in need of more social services.

“If someone comes along for one thing, there’s a good chance they’ll need other services too,” said K.J. Ricasata, who coordinates the Hub’s programming. “Which is why it’s very important for us to get people in the door because when we can sit down and have a conversation with you, where we can kind of suss out, oh, you might benefit from this, from this, from this.”

The Hub has also become a venue for research — with the proviso that researchers have to give to the community, as well as take, said Camille Burnett of VCU’s Office of Institutional Equity, Effectiveness and Success. And it’s a training ground. So much of U.S. health care education still takes place in hospitals — even though so much sickness begins in communities. At the Hub, Kimberly Battle, who teaches at VCU’s School of Nursing, has nursing students, community health students and advanced nurse practitioners come through.

Next door is The Market at 25th, a full-service grocery store with plenty of fresh fruits and vegetables, said Steve Markel, the businessman and Richmond native who got it built. Plus, he notes, the market has created 75 jobs — including for some people who had a long history of unemployment or had spent time in prison.

He knows that healthy food and one promising store isn’t all that it will take to change a neighborhood after three or four generations of poverty and neglect. But it’s a start.

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RSN: FOCUS: Starbucks Is on a National Union-Busting Crime Spree


 

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Starbucks has broken labor laws in just about every way imaginable. (photo: AP)
FOCUS: Starbucks Is on a National Union-Busting Crime Spree
Jeff Schuhrke, Jacobin
Schuhrke writes: "The union-busting campaign carried out by Starbucks indicates that the company will not stop until they destroy Starbucks Workers United."

The union-busting campaign carried out by Starbucks indicates that the company will not stop until they destroy Starbucks Workers United. The rest of the labor movement has a duty to support the Starbucks union drive — before it’s too late.


"No one is above the law” has become a common refrain among supporters of the various investigations into Donald Trump’s many illegalities. In a functioning democracy, they say, even the most powerful people must be held accountable for lawbreaking.

And yet, every day, with little public outcry, corporations like Starbucks and its billionaire CEO, Howard Schultz, are shamelessly violating the law in plain sight, with no fear of facing consequences.

To crush Starbucks Workers United, the worker-led movement that has successfully unionized over five thousand employees and counting at the coffee giant, Schultz and his underlings have broken labor law in just about every way imaginable. This has included spying on and firing pro-union baristas, closing down pro-union stores, and denying raises to unionized workers — all illegal acts of intimidation and retribution.

As if that weren’t enough, the company is now borrowing directly from the Trump playbook by claiming the successful union elections were rigged and calling for a halt to further mail-in ballots. As Starbucks Workers United stated yesterday, “Unfortunately, it’s now in vogue for the losers of some elections nationwide to attempt to reverse elections by any means they think are necessary.”

Starbucks’s unlawful behavior is aimed not only at turning workers against unionizing, but also, at convincing the workers who have already won a union election that it was all for nothing.

In its brief existence, Starbucks Workers United has helped jump-start a long-stalled US labor movement. From the first union election victory in Buffalo last December, it has been a powerful example for millions of young, exploited workers at some of the nation’s biggest corporations, inspiring them to form unions of their own.

The ongoing union battle at Starbucks, then, has ramifications that go far beyond the coffee company itself. If Schultz is allowed to get away with his blatantly unlawful anti-union campaign, it will be yet another major setback for organized labor.

It’s therefore vital that everyone who identifies with or supports the labor movement, including elected officials who claim to be pro-union, do all that they can to help Starbucks Workers United overcome Howard Schultz’s relentless crime spree.

First Contract

Those unfamiliar with the ins and outs of US labor relations might assume that workers voting in favor of unionizing is the end of the story. You and your coworkers voted for a union, so now you should have a union, right? But of course, it’s just the beginning.

Lasting change in the workplace comes only after the union and employer have negotiated and ratified a first contract, a legally binding document setting wages, benefits, and working conditions. Current US labor law doesn’t require that a first contract be settled within any specified time period after the union is certified, or even that a first contract be settled at all. It only requires employers to bargain in “good faith,” and even that can be difficult to actually enforce.

As a result, most employers try to ensure a first contract is never achieved by simply continuing the same anti-union campaign they began in the run-up to the election. They delay, obstruct, and engage in a host of illegal tactics in the hopes that demoralization and turnover will eventually defeat the union.

A recent analysis found that on average, it takes 465 days (fifteen months) to achieve a first contract after winning a union. Some unions never get a first contract even after years of bargaining.

At the over two hundred twenty Starbucks stores across the country that have unionized since December, the company has taken the initial steps of bargaining a first contract at only three. Management is unsurprisingly using its army of attorneys from the anti-union law firm Littler Mendelson to delay the negotiating process as much as possible — while continuing to fire pro-union workers and close pro-union stores.

The pace of baristas filing for new union elections has slowed slightly in recent months, but the workplace militancy at Starbucks has escalated, with workers holding over fifty-five short-term strikes (as well as at least one indefinite strike in Boston, ongoing since July 18) in seventeen different states to demand an end to union busting, costing the company an estimated $375,000 in lost revenue, and with more strikes planned every week. As Starbucks Workers United members are well aware, work stoppages like these are their most powerful weapon, and they should therefore be scaled up — held simultaneously at more locations and for longer durations than one or three days — in order to force the company to halt its anti-union tactics and come to the bargaining table.

The Starbucks workers have repeatedly proven that they are effective and tireless organizers, but what they need to sustain bigger and longer strikes are resources — namely, a robust strike fund. Workers United, the SEIU-affiliated union that the baristas are joining, established such a fund in June in the amount of $1 million.

A million dollars is a good start, but established unions could give a lot more. In an eye-opening new report, union researcher Chris Bohner demonstrates that despite shrinking membership, as of 2020, organized labor’s finances are actually quite healthy, with net assets growing to about $29.1 billion — money that could be used to support organizing campaigns like Starbucks Workers United’s.

Bohner shows that in the past decade, established unions have spent a total of $767 million on strike benefits, when they could be spending $1 billion every year. Given the importance of the Starbucks campaign to the entire labor movement, surely more unions besides Workers United could afford to donate some money to the baristas’ strike fund.

NLRB Defunded

To defeat the union, Starbucks has been breaking the law so much that the National Labor Relations Board (NLRB), the federal agency charged with enforcing labor law, is overwhelmed.

Not only is the NLRB taking Starbucks to court, alleging over two hundred legal violations in the Buffalo, New York area (the region where the union drive began late last year); it is also scrambling to process at least another 284 open unfair labor practice cases involving the company. It would usually take companies years to rack up these many violations.

On top of all that, the NLRB is trying to move forward on union elections at dozens more Starbucks stores across the country where workers have petitioned to hold a vote.

And that’s only at one company. Workers at Amazon, Trader Joe’s, Chipotle, Amy’s Kitchen, Apple, REI, Medieval Times, and numerous other private employers are also in the midst of union campaigns that are being met with many of the same illegal union-busting tactics.

Despite all this, Congress hasn’t increased the NLRB’s budget since 2014. When factoring in inflation, that amounts to a 25 percent budget cut, resulting in the agency’s staff shrinking by 30 percent in the past decade. The same politicians who denounce calls to defund law enforcement have themselves been defunding the enforcement of labor law.

The Democrats’ proposed Build Back Better act would have increased the NLRB’s budget from $274 million to $350 million over five years, but that didn’t come to pass. Instead, Democrats passed the scaled-down Inflation Reduction Act this month, which includes no new money for the agency.

The National Labor Relations Board Union (NLRBU) represents the attorneys, investigators, and administrative professionals at the NLRB’s regional offices and headquarters. In a statement last week, the union blasted Congress for “deliberately ignor[ing] another opportunity to provide our agency with the necessary funding to fulfill its statutory mission of enforcing federal labor law. We are disappointed to have been snubbed yet again.”

“Our resources have been tremendously strained . . . and staffing losses have left us in a crisis,” the NLRBU continued. “The Inflation Reduction Act was proposed, debated, and passed in the Senate without a mention of the NLRB or its budgetary crisis, despite other agencies getting funding boosts.”

One of President Joe Biden’s few real achievements for workers has been the appointment of pro-union officials to the NLRB’s headquarters, particularly General Counsel Jennifer Abruzzo (though new leadership is clearly needed in some of the agency’s regional offices, as made clear by the recent disastrous ruling of NLRB Region 10 in Atlanta, ordering the United Mine Workers to pay $13.3 million to Warrior Met Coal as compensation for lost revenue amid an ongoing strike). But pro-union agency heads don’t mean much when they don’t have the resources to crack down on illegal union busting.

“Propel This insurrection”

Beyond the NLRB’s budget, of course, is the pitiful state of labor law itself. After decades of anti-union case law, as well as the anti-labor Taft-Hartley Act of 1947, the law overwhelmingly favors employers and does little to actually penalize them when they violate workers’ rights.

The Protecting the Right to Organize (PRO) Act, which was high on the Democrats’ agenda last year but has gone nowhere in the Senate, would have tilted labor law back in workers’ favor. Among many other measures, it would have set tougher standards on negotiating a first contract and imposed civil penalties on lawbreaking employers of up to $50,000 per violation and up to $100,000 per violation by repeat offenders.

During the failed Build Back Better negotiations last fall, there was a proposal to include the PRO Act’s employer penalties in budget reconciliation. If that had passed, Starbucks’s current anti-union campaign would have been a gold mine to the federal government in the form of financial penalties collected from the company. Or, more likely, the company would have thought twice about illegal intimidation and retaliation.

Several unions are currently calling on Senators to hold a vote on the PRO Act next month after the congressional recess, although “no one expects them to pass it,” according to Politico.

The struggle at Starbucks is another reminder of why we need a more cohesive and solidarity-driven labor movement in this country — one where established unions sitting on billions of dollars would spend some of that on supporting extended strike activity — and an independent working-class politics — so elected officials would be made to pass badly needed labor law reform, or at the very least put up the resources to enforce existing labor law.

But the Starbucks workers, among workers at many other companies, are not waiting around for these changes to happen. They don’t have time. Instead, they’re organizing, risking their livelihoods, taking on some of the wealthiest and most powerful forces in the world, and winning.

The rest of us need to back them up in every way possible — starting by signing Starbucks Workers United’s “No Contract, No Coffee” pledge, as well by using our own organizations, platforms, and individual voices to pressure labor leaders and supposedly pro-union elected officials to do more.

“Among us there are unfortunately — but not unexpectedly — defeatists and ‘experts’ all around who dream up more reasons why this movement cannot succeed — rather than reasons why it has to succeed,” veteran trade unionist Chris Townsend recently wrote of the Starbucks campaign. “In this truly amazing moment, it falls on the rest of us, the left, the trade union supporters, young and old, working and retired, union members or unorganized, to do what we can to help propel this insurrection even further.”


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TOP NEWS: Progressives Applaud as Biden Signs 'Landmark' IRA Into Law

 

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August 16, 2022
Top News



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The GOP just tried to kick hundreds of students off the voter rolls

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