COUNTDOWN TO THE CAUCUSES — In three days, America will see the first test in the 2024 Republican nomination fight. The results in Monday’s Iowa caucuses are likely to illuminate the strength of former president Donald Trump’s hold on the GOP, reveal whether Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis’ ground game is underestimated and demonstrate if former U.N. ambassador Nikki Haley’s surge in the polls is occurring outside New Hampshire. With so many questions still left to be answered in Iowa, POLITICO sat down with six of the state’s top political reporters and editors to get their perspective on what’s happening on the ground. They had a lot to say. (If you’re interested in a deeper dive, you can find the entire roundtable discussion here .) Here are five takeaways from our conversation about the first event of the 2024 primary season: The evangelical vote: Iowa is home to a high percentage of conservative Christian voters — 62 percent of Iowa Republican caucus goers were white evangelical or white born again Christians, according to 2016 entrance poll data. In 2016, Texas Sen. Ted Cruz won them pretty comfortably over Trump, who still faced a considerable amount of skepticism from evangelical voters. But things have changed quite a bit since then and Christian conservatives have warmed to Trump, especially because of his Supreme Court picks. Our panel noted that DeSantis is trying to peel away some of that support, particularly in conservative northwest Iowa. But perhaps the most interesting observation was the consensus on how much the evangelical vote has changed since 1988, when Pat Robertson surprised the nation with his strong second place finish — ahead of the sitting vice president at the time, George H.W. Bush. “These voters are now in a party that embraces their issues,” said O. Kay Henderson, news director of Radio Iowa . “There are no longer people in the Republican Party like there were in 1988 who supported abortion rights. So it’s a completely different party than it was in 1988.” Ed Tibbetts, a former Quad-City Times reporter and editorial page editor who publishes the Along the Mississippi Substack, said: “I don’t think evangelicals today are the same as evangelicals eight years ago or even further back. I think that makes it very difficult to compare one cycle to another because the definitions that are being used just aren’t the same anymore.” The ground game: A campaign’s field organization is essential to victory in Iowa, a state with 99 counties and a caucus system that requires voters to attend one of the more than 1,600 caucus sites. DeSantis’ super PAC Never Back Down has been on the ground since April and, according to Brianne Pfannenstiel, a reporter at the Des Moines Register , he’s had “the most extensive ground game, most consistently in the state.” DeSantis is betting big here that shifting significant resources to the state will pay off with a surprisingly strong performance. Henderson explains about his team in the state: “I went to a DeSantis event on Saturday night in Ankeny. There were a number of people getting orange hats that say “precinct captain” from the DeSantis campaign. Talking with some of the people [at a DeSantis event], they’re being given names to call in their community, to encourage them to attend. They’re talking to people online. And then they also will be a point person in each precinct, to speak for the campaign.” But he’s not the only one with a humming operation. Unlike in 2016 when his campaign in the state was fairly disorganized, the Trump machine looks well oiled in Iowa. “They’ve got boots on the ground everywhere, you’ve been bombarded by text messages, by mailers, by emails,” Iowa Starting Line reporter Ty Rushing says. “They’re not just relying on Trump’s Twitter account to get the word out there and to fire up people.” Winter weather: Nearly all of the 99 counties in Iowa are scheduled to be under a winter storm warning Monday into Tuesday, which means the weather will undoubtedly have an effect on the caucus. “The people who want to caucus for Donald Trump really want to caucus for Donald Trump. And there’s less excitement for DeSantis and for Haley, and Iowans have thick skin but this is a really serious weather situation,” said Pfannenstiel. “The temperatures are going to be in dangerous territory for people to spend a lot of time outside.” Kathie Obradovich, editor in chief of Iowa Capital Dispatch agreed the weather will have an impact, but disagreed on who it would hurt the most. She said Trump has the most to lose in this scenario. Campaign surrogates: It’s not just the candidates who are traipsing around Iowa in the run-up to the caucuses. They are accompanied by a host of surrogates who are campaigning with them in an effort to generate energy and excitement, amplify the campaign message and provide validation. Trump has brought in a host of surrogates — Pfannenstiel refers to them as “the Trump cinematic universe” — among them Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene of Georgia, Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake and South Dakota Gov. Kristi Noem. Former HUD Secretary Ben Carson and two of Trump’s sons, Don Jr. and Eric, have also appeared in the state on their father’s behalf. “Anytime Roger Stone or Kari Lake or Mike Lindell is at a Trump event,” said Rushing, “there’s a photo line for them, right there on the floor.” Reps. Chip Roy of Texas and Thomas Massie of Kentucky are among those who have campaigned for DeSantis; New Hampshire Gov. Chris Sununu appeared in Des Moines last week for Haley. The Iowa roundtable wasn’t convinced any of the surrogates made a huge difference, though Siouxland Public Media ’s Bret Hayworth noted that one of them made a splash in northwest Iowa when she campaigned there — Noem, who represents a neighboring state and shares a media market. Trump’s hold on Iowa: For all the talk of campaign infrastructure, weather and surrogates, every reliable poll of late has shown that this will not be a particularly competitive contest. The only real question is the size of his winning margin — which will be closely scrutinized. That’s very different from the last competitive Republican primary cycle, when Trump underperformed his poll numbers and lost Iowa by four points to Texas Sen. Ted Cruz. In the aftermath of that defeat, Trump cried foul, saying on Twitter, “Ted Cruz didn’t win Iowa, he illegally stole it.” Trump is not taking the state for granted this year. He’s been in Iowa more than he indicated he would in the fall, making multiple appearances at big rallies. Henderson suggests that’s a sign of a change in direction internally, and that “you’ve heard him say on the campaign trail that he wants a thunderous victory here, that he wants a blowout victory here.” The experts had a hard time envisioning any scenario other than a Trump victory. When we asked the room whether anyone thought Trump might not win in Iowa, we were met with dead silence. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at mmccarthy@politico.com , cmchugh@politico.com and cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reporter_Mia , @calder_mchugh and @PoliticoCharlie .
|