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FOCUS: Nate Cohn | Biden Appears to Hold Edge in the Key Votes Left to Be Counted
Nate Cohn, The New York Times
Cohn writes: "Joe Biden looks to be on the cusp of winning the election. Here's a look at where the vote count stands in the key states."
Pennsylvania
President Trump’s lead in Pennsylvania has plummeted to two percentage points as of Thursday morning, as the mail absentee ballot count proceeded briskly across the state.
There is every indication that Mr. Biden remains on track to pull ahead when all of the votes are in and counted, whenever that may be.
So far, Mr. Biden has been winning absentee votes, 77 percent to 22 percent, according to the Pennsylvania secretary of state. At that pace, he needs only 288,000 more mail votes before taking the lead. By my count, there are about 500,000 mail ballots left. The secretary of state reported a total of 2.6 million absentee ballots cast as of Tuesday, and so far 2.1 million absentee votes have been counted. If Mr. Biden won those 500,000 ballots by the same 77-22 pace, he would end with a lead of about 100,000 votes in the state. That’s a pretty decent cushion.
Yes it's illegal, immoral, and an attempt to overthrow the (soon to be) duly elected government of the United States of America. But remarkably, this lame duck president who's supposed to be the champion snake oil salesman of the western world also lost the narrative by blowing the marketing! You can't cast doubt on the credibility of an election you haven't lost yet! You can't in one breath insist that can be no more counting of votes in Michigan, but there MUST be re-counting of the counting of votes in Pennsylvania! Trump has actually been losing the battle of perception-as-reality since he let Joe Biden speak first just before 1 AM EST Wednesday. If it's that late, and it's the middle of the night in 83% of the country, you hold your speech until 8:30 AM when people are watching the damn television! And remember, the stupider Trump looks, the less support he will get from Republicans and even from the Supreme Court he has packed with flunkies. They're going to have to do a cost-benefit analysis of whether it's worth it to tear the country apart and burn their own court to a cinder. Watch my first political commentaries since The Resistance in this newest episode of my new series on Trump and the 2020 election: The Worst Person In The World With Keith Olbermann (or if the spelling overwhelms you, Olberman Oberman Oblerman Obermann and of course Kieth). The countdown, so to speak, is over! You know: the countdown with Keith Olbermann ;-)
It's Live on the HomePage Now: Juan Cole | Top 6 Progressive Victories on Election Day - Whatever Happens 1. The Democrats are projected to retain the House of Representatives, in which they have 232-197, and are likely to pick up some seats. Republicans had hoped to undo some of the 2018 blue wave, and especially to defeat freshman Democrats who won in districts Trump had carried in 2016. On the whole, they appear to have failed. 2. Members of the progressive “Squad” — Representatives Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY), Ilhan Omar (D-MN), Rashida Tlaib (D-MI), and Ayanna Pressley (D-MA), all won reelection by big margins. Not only that but the ranks of the “Justice Democrats” were enlarged, with Cori Bush of Missouri (who was pepper-sprayed at a demo in Ferguson only a few years ago), Jamal Bowman of NY16 and Mondaire Jones of NY17. They have a number of progressive allies, and could start forming the core of a swing vote on some issues. 3. Democrat John Hickenlooper defeated Republican Senator Cory Gardner in Colorado, adding one to the column of Dems in the upper house. Gardner had been a never Trumper who switched around to being Trump’s sycophant, and Coloradans didn’t like it. 4. Florida became the 8th state to pass a $15 an hour minimum wage, the result of grassroots organizing on the issue. 5. New Jersey voted to make marijuana legal. The demonization of marijuana (and the glorification of alcohol) were racialized policies of the twentieth century, since pot was associated with African-Americans and Hispanics. Getting rid of this inequity is a step toward individual freedom, greater racial justice, and also state tax revenues. Predictions that Colorado’s addiction or crime rates would rise after marijuana legalization proved relatively baseless, and in fact it seems to have actually reduced crime in neighboring states. 6. Prop 24 a California ballot initiative to strengthen internet privacy, appears to have passed. Since California has some 41 million people and is a tech center, the implementation of this measure will likely affect the internet throughout the country and perhaps the world. It is past time that tech companies cease thinking that just because we surf they Web they have the right essentially to spy on us.
ALSO SEE: Biden Is Poised to Win But It Isn't Over Yet. What We Know Now Biden Predicts Victory in 2020 Race: 'When the Count Is Finished, We Will Be the Winners'
Sanders Urges 'Squad' to 'Make Sure Biden Becomes the Most Progressive President Since FDR'
Judge 'Shocked' at Postal Service, May Order Postmaster General to Testify U.S. District Judge Emmet Sullivan in Washington said at a hearing Wednesday that he was “shocked” at the behavior, including not completing a mandatory sweep of mail-processing facilities to look for undelivered ballots by 3 p.m. on Election Day. “At some point, the postmaster is either going to have to be deposed or appear before me and testify under oath,” said Sullivan, who is overseeing one of several lawsuits against USPS tied to disruptive operational changes at the agency. “The court has been very clear that it expects full compliance” with its orders. Sullivan blasted the U.S. Postal Service’s legal team for failing to notify him promptly once the agency realized it couldn’t meet the deadline he set for conducting the sweep of facilities in more than a dozen troubled regions, including many in Democratic-leaning urban areas or swing states. “The court would have been very sensitive to any complaints that it was impossible to comply with the order,” Sullivan said. “It just leaves a bad taste in everyone’s mouth for the clock to run out, game over. There was not compliance with a very important court order.” On-Time Report Card On-time delivery has taken on a new urgency amid a surge in the use of mail-in ballots during the pandemic and Republican efforts to block the counting of ballots that arrive after Election Day. In South Florida, 85% of ballots made it to election authorities on time -- within one to three days for local delivery -- on Election Day, Nov. 3, the last day in Florida for ballots to arrive and still be counted, the Postal Service reported in a filing with the court on Tuesday. In Detroit, 79% of mail-in votes were delivered on time on Election Day. The figure was 67% in Philadelphia. That compares with a national on-time delivery rate of 93% of ballots that day, according to USPS. The agency cautioned in the filing that daily figures may not be reliable and that the service scores don’t include ballots that are handled locally without being shipped to large processing centers. Locally handled ballots are delivered the same day with a near 100% success rate, according to USPS, which said it has taken “extraordinary measures” in delivering votes. In many cases, local post offices handle ballots without sending them through large sorting centers where delivery scores are measured, said Tammy Patrick, a senior adviser at the Democracy Fund, which describes itself, in part, as promoting free and fair elections. “These ballots are being delivered in a shorter time,” Patrick said in an interview. Michigan and Pennsylvania Lawyers for the plaintiffs in the case, including the NAACP, said it was imperative for USPS to focus on continuing to deliver ballots in states that have extended deadlines for accepting votes postmarked by Nov. 3. Those include Michigan and Pennsylvania. Sullivan asked to hear testimony later Wednesday from USPS executive manager Kevin Bray, the lead for processing 2020 election mail. The court-ordered sweep related to USPS facilities in Democratic strongholds like Detroit, Philadelphia, Atlanta and Houston, as well as battleground states such as Arizona and Florida. The facilities that were singled out were suffering from substandard performance for delivery of election mail, according to data that the Postal Service was required to file regularly with the court. USPS said in a filing on Wednesday that it had completed a sweep of more than 200 facilities to look for ballots, despite missing the deadline, “and ensured that election mail was processed expeditiously.” In Pennsylvania, which could prove decisive in the outcome, the agency said the sweep had uncovered three delayed ballots in Johnstown and 10 in Lancaster that were “referred to management for delivery.” All ballots were handled with the expectation that they needed to be delivered by Nov. 3, regardless of a state’s potentially extended deadline, USPS said. |
People wanting to be election challengers yell as they look through the windows of the central counting board as police were helping to keep additional challengers from entering due to overcrowding, Wednesday, Nov. 4, 2020, in Detroit. (photo: Carlos Osorio/AP)
Trump Supporters Swarm Vote Centers in Michigan, Arizona
Mike Householder and Tim Sullivan, Associated Press
Excerpt: "Dozens of angry supporters of President Donald Trump converged on vote-counting centers in Detroit and Phoenix as the returns went against him Wednesday in the two key states, while thousands of anti-Trump protesters demanding a complete tally of the ballots in the still-undecided election took to the streets in cities across the U.S."
“Stop the count!” the Trump supporters chanted in Detroit. “Stop the steal!” they said in Phoenix.
The protests came as the president insisted without evidence that there were major problems with the voting and the ballot counting, especially with mail-in votes, and as Republicans filed suit in various states over the election.
Wearing Trump gear, the Phoenix protesters filled much of the parking lot at the Maricopa County election center, and members of the crowd chanted, “Fox News sucks!” in anger over the network declaring Joe Biden the winner in Arizona.
Rep. Paul Gosar, an Arizona Republican and staunch Trump supporter, joined the crowd, declaring: “We’re not going to let this election be stolen. Period.”
However, observers from both major political parties were inside the election center as ballots were processed and counted, and the procedure was live-streamed online at all times.
Several sheriff’s deputies blocked the entrance to the building. And the vote-counting went on into the night, Maricopa County Elections Department spokeswoman Megan Gilbertson said.
Two top county officials — one a Democrat, the other a Republican — issued a statement expressing concern about how misinformation had spread about the integrity of the election process.
“Everyone should want all the votes to be counted, whether they were mailed or cast in person,” said the statement signed by Clint Hickman, the GOP chair of the Maricopa County Board of Supervisors, and Democratic Supervisor Steve Gallardo. “An accurate vote takes time. ... This is evidence of democracy, not fraud.”
Meanwhile, from New York City to Seattle, thousands of demonstrators turned out to demand that every vote be tallied.
In Portland, Oregon, which has been a scene of regular protests for months, Gov. Kate Brown called out the National Guard as demonstrators engaged in what authorities said was widespread violence downtown, including smashing windows. Protesters in Portland were demonstrating about a range of issues, including police brutality and the counting of the vote.
“It’s important to trust the process, and the system that has ensured free and fair elections in this country through the decades, even in times of great crisis,” Brown said in a statement. “We are all in this together.”
Richard March came to an anti-Trump demonstration in Portland despite a heart condition that makes him vulnerable to COVID-19.
“To cast doubt on this election has terrible consequences for our democracy,” he said. “I think we are a very polarized society now — and I’m worried about what’s going to come in the next days and weeks and months.”
In New York, hundreds of people paraded past boarded-up luxury stores on Manhattan’s Fifth Avenue, and in Chicago, demonstrators marched through downtown and along a street across the river from Trump Tower.
Similar protests — sometimes about the election, sometimes about racial inequality — took place in at least a half-dozen cities, including Los Angeles, Houston, Pittsburgh, Minneapolis and San Diego.
The confrontation in Detroit started shortly before The Associated Press declared that Biden had won Michigan.
Video shot by local media showed angry people gathered outside the TCF Center and inside the lobby, with police officers lined up to keep them from entering the vote-counting area. They chanted, “Stop the count!” and “Stop the vote!”
Earlier, the Republican campaign filed suit in a bid to halt the count, demanding Michigan’s Democratic secretary of state allow in more inspectors.
Michigan Attorney General Dana Nessel, a Democrat, insisted both parties and the public had been given access to the tallying, “using a robust system of checks and balances to ensure that all ballots are counted fairly and accurately.”
Michigan has been on edge for months over fears of political violence. Anti-government protesters openly carried guns into the state Capitol during protests over coronavirus restrictions in the spring, and six men were arrested last month on charges of plotting to kidnap Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer
On Election Night, scattered protests broke after voting ended, stretching from Washington, D.C., to Seattle, but there was no widespread unrest or significant violence.
The prolonged task of counting this year’s deluge of mail-in votes raised fears that the lack of clarity in the presidential race could spark unrest.
Denmark to Kill 17 Million Minks to Reduce Spread of COVID
Gabrielle Fonrouge, New York Post
Fonrouge writes: "It's a bad day to be a mink in Denmark."
The Nordic country will cull its entire herd of up to 17 million mink after the furry creatures were found to have a coronavirus mutation that was spreading to humans, posing a risk to vaccine efforts, its prime minister announced Wednesday.
Since the summer, COVID-19 outbreaks have ravaged Danish mink farms, but repeated efforts to stymie the spread and cull only impacted farms have failed.
Health officials found the mutated virus in both humans and minks and discovered it didn’t show a robust response to antibodies. Prime Minister Mette Frederiksen said the mutated version could potentially reduce the effectiveness of future vaccines.
About half of 783 infected Danes in the northern part of the country — which is home to a large quantity of mink farms — were infected with the mutated strain that stems from the farms, Frederiksen said.
In mid-October, Danish authorities announced plans to cull at least 2.5 million minks after outbreaks were reported in at least 63 farms. The chairman of Danish Fur Breeders Association said the outbreak “threaten[s] the entire profession.”
“All breeders are right now in a huge amount of uncertainty and frustration over this ‘meteor’ that has fallen on our heads,” Tage Pedersen said previously.
It’s still not clear how the minks got infected.
Denmark is one of the world’s largest mink exporters, producing about 17 million furs per year, which are mostly exported to China and Hong Kong.
There are about 15 million to 17 million minks in Denmark, health officials said.
Joe Biden speaks at a rally in Cleveland on Monday. (photo: Getty)
Biden Vows to Rejoin Paris Climate Accord on 'Day One' if He Wins
Mike Murphy, MarketWatch
Murphy writes: "Hours after the U.S. officially pulled out of the Paris Climate Agreement, Joe Biden said that if elected president, he would immediately rejoin it."
“Today, the Trump Administration officially left the Paris Climate Agreement. And in exactly 77 days, a Biden Administration will rejoin it,” Biden tweeted.
President Donald Trump announced his intention to withdraw the U.S. from the global pact in 2017, but did not started the formal withdrawal process until a year ago.
Biden’s comments were not a surprise, as he has pledged to rejoin the accord on “day one” of his potential administration.
As the world’s second-largest polluter, the U.S. is regarded as a cornerstone of the climate accord, which aims to cut global emissions and stem the increase in global temperatures.
While the presidential election was still undecided, Biden maintained a lead in the Electoral College tally as of Wednesday night.
President Donald Trump realized the fears of many political observers Tuesday night by falsely claiming a “big win” in the U.S. presidential election despite many millions of votes yet to be counted and no clear victor even remotely in sight.
With the battle over crucial electoral college votes still potentially days or even weeks away—and just after Democratic nominee Joe Biden spoke to the nation in a televised address to urge patience for official results—Trump, just before 1:00 am ET, tweeted he would be “making a statement tonight” and then called it “a big WIN!”
Moments later, Trump falsely stated “We are up BIG”—even though at the time both the Associated Press and New York Times election desks had Biden up 213 to 174 in their electoral college projections. Trump then unleashed another lie, stating that the Democrats “are trying to STEAL the Election. We will never let them do it. Votes cannot be cast after the Polls are closed!”
Twitter immediately slapped a message on the Trump tweets warning that they contained overt misinformation, stating: “Some or all of the content shared in this Tweet is disputed and might be misleading about an election or other civic process.” In order for viewers to see the tweets, they would have to click through the warning.”
Firing back against Trump’s brazen misinformation, Biden himself tweeted: “It’s not my place or Donald Trump’s place to declare the winner of this election. It’s the voters’ place.”
In his earlier speech, Biden urged the nation to remain “patient” as all the votes are counted, but added that he was “optimistic about the outcome.”
“We believe we are on track to win this election,” Biden told supporters from his home city of Wilmington, Delaware. “It ain’t over until every vote is counted,” he said.
Grassroots organizers like MoveOn.org said Trump would not get away with it:
Trump emerged to supporters after 2:00 pm ET inside the East Room of the White House where he again falsely claimed victory in the election and lied repeatedly by equating the counting of votes with an effort by Democrats to steal the election.
“This is a fraud on the American public,” Trump asserted, with no evidence whatsoever to support such a claim. “This is an embarrassment to our country,” he continued. “We were getting ready to win this election—frankly, we did win this election.”
The president continued by saying his campaign’s “goal now is to ensure—for the good of this nation, and this is a very big moment—this is a major fraud in our nation. We want the law to be used in the proper manner. So we’ll be going to the U.S. Supreme Court.”
“We want all voting to stop,” Trump continued, though of course since polls closed in states on Tuesday evening, all voting has already ended. Trump then bizarrely claimed that phantom ballots might somehow appear “at four o’clock in the morning” that would be “added to the list,” apparently by Democrats.
“As far I’m concerned,” Trump said, “we already have won it.”
George Goehl, director of the progressive advocacy group People’s Action, was among those issuing immediate rebuke to any effort by Trump or the Republican Party to steal the election or misinform the American people before the tally of every vote is complete.
“Count every vote, no matter how long it takes,” said Goehl. “Democracy includes us all. Anyone running for office can say whatever they want to, but it’s the will of the voters that decides. Donald Trump and Republicans know they’re losing and like any cowards would, are doing everything they can to try and steal this election and block our votes and voices. The voters will decide our next president. And once every single vote is counted, the will of the people will be overwhelmingly clear.”
While progressives and pro-democracy watchdogs for weeks have warned that Trump would try pull such shenanigans on Election Night, in the end it played out much as many reported and predicted it might.
“You are as predictable as you are corrupt,” tweeted progressive organizer Kai Newkirk in response to the president’s tweet. “All the votes have been cast already. Now they just have to be counted. This is a democratic republic—not a dictatorship. And We the People intend to keep it. Every vote will be counted.”
Linda Sarsour, co-founder of the advocacy group M Power Change, said Trump’s efforts to subvert the election results would not be tolerated for even one moment.
“We must count every single vote—period,” Sarsour said in a statement late Tuesday night. “We must count every vote, and prepare for what’s coming. This is a crucial moment to defend democracy from fascism at home. We are committed to making sure every vote is counted, whether that means us hitting the streets, taking part in massive nonviolent civil disobedience, or showing up in Washington, D.C. ourselves.”
Originally published by CommonDreams
Every state makes decisions and enacts policies based on its interests and security perceptions. Some state decisions are more insidious than others in that the secondary effects can be devastating, especially by those states that can project sovereignty outside their own borders.
Undoubtedly, Israel’s decision to create a relationship with Azerbaijan was a well-thought-out process. Not that Israel has any long-term stratagem with Azerbaijan, but Azerbaijan having a border with Iran speaks for itself. Azerbaijan’s horrid human rights record, its oligarchic ruling structure, and money-laundering propensity culminated with Azerbaijani President Ilham Aliyev being awarded the moniker “Corrupt Person of the Year.”
Regardless, Azerbaijan is the only state bordering Iran that Israel found compliant enough with whom to create an alliance of convenience. Azerbaijan doesn’t even have an embassy in Israel, yet both engage in trade in the billions of dollars. An embassy in Israel would not be welcomed by either Iran or a wide swath of Azerbaijani society. While no public documents exist detailing what synergistic relations exist between Azerbaijan and Israel, Aliyev described the relationship, “like an iceberg, nine-tenths … below the surface”. Over the past decade, Azerbaijan received well over an estimated six billion dollars (five billion as of the end of 2017) of Israeli high-technology weaponry. Israel receives about half of its crude oil supply from Azerbaijan. The same reference notes many military air flights occurring between Israel and Azerbaijan since the start of the war Azerbaijan inflicted on the Armenians.
So, suppose Israel wants a facility on Iran’s border to gather intelligence on Iran, or further, airbases with the ability to launch a strike on Iran without having to refuel its fighter jets. In that case, it has to give something to Azerbaijan in return. When asked about Israel’s activity in Azerbaijan during an interview on Russian TV, Yaakov Kedmi, the former Head of the Israel Defense Forces Program “Nativ” and, now a military and political expert, said, “I will answer carefully. There were reports in the Western media that very often drones flying from Azerbaijan fly over Iran. These are not Turkish drones. And for a reason, not out of love for aeronautics, Azerbaijan allows drones from Luxembourg to use Azerbaijan to fly over Iran,” Kedmi smiled as Luxembourg is the metaphor for Israel. Azerbaijan allows “Luxembourg’s” UAVs to fly over Iran, and in return, Azerbaijan is sold military hardware that it has clearly stated would be used to kill Armenians. In the current Azerbaijani offensive to capture Nagorno-Karabakh, Israeli-manufactured cluster bombs were used by Azerbaijan. It is still unclear where Azerbaijan purchased outlawed white phosphorus bombs that it has begun raining over Armenian Karabakh. Yet we know who manufactures them.
As reported in the Israeli media, Israel has access to at least one former Soviet airbase in Azerbaijan. The English-language version of this Israeli-media report is slightly different from the original Hebrew and refers to several Azerbaijani bases made available to Israel. In Figure 1, the pink balloon “A” is a former Soviet airbase in Sitalchay, Azerbaijan. Figure 2 is a satellite image with a caption claiming Sitalchay could be an Israeli base. Of course, publicly available documents that confirm any of this don’t exist.
Quoting Haaretz, in 2012,
“U.S. officials told Foreign Policy that they believe Israel has been granted access to these air bases through a “series of quiet political and military understandings. I doubt that there’s actually anything in writing,” said a former U.S. diplomat who spent his career in the region. “But I don’t think there’s any doubt – if Israeli jets want to land in Azerbaijan after an attack, they’d probably be allowed to do so. Israel is deeply embedded in Azerbaijan, and has been for the last two decades.”
As expected, Azerbaijan denies any of this.
Figure 1 המרחק בין בסיס סיטאלקיי לאיראן (צילום: Google)
Figure 2 בסיס סיטאלקיי באזרבייג’ן. עשוי לשמש את ישראל (צילום: Google Earth, GeoEye)
Just as it was in Israel’s interest to covertly (Iran-Contra) sell arms to Iran during Iran’s battle with Saddam Husayn’s Iraq, Azerbaijan and Israel cooperate as their varied interests complement each other. Israel requires surveillance of and staging grounds for any potential offensive against Iran. Azerbaijan needs state-of-the-art offensive military weaponry from Israel. During September 2015, in one of many visits to Baku, Azerbaijan by Israeli Knesset members, the chairman of the parliamentary security commission Oren Khazan and the head of the Safadi International Diplomatic Center, Israeli politician Mendi Safadi brought a package of proposals to fight the Armenian lobby. Safadi stated, “I have always been on the side of Azerbaijan, and we are ready to provide protection and assistance to the Azerbaijani side in neutralizing the influence of the Armenian lobby in the U.S. Congress, EU structures and international organizations.” From this point on, an organized anti-Armenian media and political campaign strengthened.
Israeli policymakers had to weigh the potential benefits of a covert agreement with Azerbaijan that factored in billions of dollars-worth of arms sales, a crude oil supplier, and a base of operations against Iran versus any potential off-setting benefits that would take into account Armenia’s current status. Armenia lost. Could Israel have stipulated that its weapons sold to Azerbaijan could not be used against Armenia? It could have, but Azerbaijan would reject such conditions. Israeli calculations put Armenians and ethical matters at the bottom of the priority pile.
Israel has seen the usefulness of Turkey’s expansionist neo-Ottoman policy. Turkey itself and its use of Islamic jihadists against Syrian President Bashar al-Assad serves an Israeli goal of sending Syria decades back in development. Turkey’s Erdogan makes many anti-Israeli claims, including that Jerusalem is Turkey’s, but Israeli-Turkish trade has not suffered; instead, it has expanded.
Israel’s policymakers could see the writing on the wall after Azerbaijan demonstrated its military incompetence during last July’s border flare-up with Armenia. Immediately, Turkey took the initiative and engaged in substantial war games with Azerbaijan, keeping an unknown amount of material and advisors on the ground. On September 27, Azerbaijan began its most massive offensive against Nagorno-Karabakh and its indigenous Armenian population. Some Israelis pronounced support for Armenia; most others did not.
Some Israelis and agents of Israel still claim that Armenia supports Iran or visa-versa. Yet trade between Iran and Azerbaijan has expanded to well over twice that of Armenia’s and Iran’s. In any event, just as Erdogan claims Jerusalem, talk is cheap. Israeli arms and Turkish-Azerbaijani-Israeli-sponsored PR are destroying Nagorno-Karabakh and its people. The silly arguments that “guns don’t kill people, people do,” also breaks down as quickly as guns intercepted in tunnels under Gaza.
Erdogan’s lip service to the Palestinian Cause while discriminating against them is one thing, while his claim made on July 14, 2020, that “we will continue to fulfill this mission, which our grandfathers have carried out for centuries, in the Caucasus again,” is something else. Erdogan’s outburst is a reference to the Turkish genocide of the Armenians. Turkish arms and soldiers are killing Armenian civilians and not just military personnel. Turkey’s import of Islamic Jihadists from Syria and Libya into Azerbaijan are decimating Armenians with Israeli weapons and communications gear.
Without Turkey and its imported Jihadist thugs, Azerbaijan would never have attacked Nagorno-Karabakh, thus defining the limits of its sovereignty. Does Israel hope Turkey militarily penetrates the Caucasus, both cutting off Russia and perhaps fomenting an Azerbaijani-speaking Iran insurrection in Iran’s northwest? Perhaps.
Aliyev thought his blitzkrieg on the Armenians would be over in less than a week, yet the attempted Azeribaijani incursion has dragged into its fifth week. The Turks planned for at most two months of attacks. Perhaps with the Armenians fighting for their very existence, the result will be a government collapse in Azerbaijan. Sun Tzu, the renowned author of The Art of War, wrote, “There is no instance of a country having benefited from prolonged warfare.”
We might never know if Israel is directly providing intelligence to Azerbaijan in its war against the Armenians. The truth will eventually be revealed, as such secrets are the most fleeting.
In 1992, when I was an avid user of an early version of social media (the term hadn’t been invented yet) called UseNet, I was approached by an ex-coworker who was the chairperson of a local Zionist Council, just west of Boston, MA. I was asked why I still posted eyewitness accounts of Azerbaijani pogroms against Armenians in Soviet Azerbaijan that occurred two years earlier. I found this question odd and the tone arrogant, considering that we both spent much of our free time at work discussing common aspects of the Holocaust and the Turkish genocide of the Armenians. I told this person I was informing the world about what was happening to my people, just the way I thought she wished the world knew about what was happening to her people in Poland during WWII. In response, I was told that my postings had a harmful impact on Azerbaijan, which was developing a relationship with Israel. What was a friendship between us, in one phone call, degenerated into “we both will go our separate ways.” A rather foreshadowing incident.
David Davidian (Lecturer at the American University of Armenia. He has spent over a decade in technical intelligence analysis at major high technology firms. He resides in Yerevan, Armenia).
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