POLITICO Nightly: Small shifts, big consequences in state capitals

By Paul Demko and Liz Crampton Presented by  Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D) speaks last year at the SelectUSA Investment Summit in Oxon Hill, Maryland. | Alex Brandon/A STATES OF PLAY — The 2024 election results might have upended Washington, but they barely budged the political dynamics in state capitals across the country. Republicans controlled 55 percent of the 7,000-plus state legislative seats going into Election Day, and they’re poised to hold almost exactly that — 55.25 percent — when legislatures gavel in next year. That’s a shift of only about 50 seats – far below the average of 195 over the past two decades, according to the National Conference of State Legislatures. But a swing of just one or two seats can remake the prospects for enacting controversial policy changes like abortion protections, private school vouchers or renewable energy projects. Or it could be the difference between a standard legislative majority and a supermajority that can override the vetoes of a governor. As a result, there were some seemingly minor shifts that will have a major impact on how policymaking plays out in statehouses over the next two years. Republicans scored the most clear-cut victories on Election Day, dislodging Democratic trifectas in Michigan and Minnesota. Democrats had touted the bold, progressive agendas enacted by lawmakers and governors in those states as potential blueprints for the rest of the country, but voters dealt a serious blow to those ambitions at the ballot box. Michigan Republicans flipped four state House seats, giving them a six-seat advantage. That will empower them to hit the brakes on the policy goals of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer – widely seen as a potential 2028 presidential contender -- and the Democratic-controlled state Senate. Exact control of the Minnesota House remains up in the air — the results led to an even split, with each party controlling 67 seats. But Republicans are contesting the outcomes in two races, and seemingly have plausible arguments for why the results might be challenged. Whatever happens, the disappointing results for Democrats were a further blow to Gov. Tim Walz, who enjoyed a stratospheric rise over the summer to become the (doomed) vice presidential nominee. Republicans also made big gains in some Northeastern states. In New Hampshire, for example, they expanded majorities in both chambers, picking up two seats in the 24-member Senate and 25 seats in the chaotic 400-member House (although there were 11 vacancies heading into Election Day). Perhaps the most surprising gains for Republicans came in deep-blue Vermont, which accounted for close to half of all GOP state legislative gains across the nation. Republicans gained 28 seats across both chambers, significantly eroding Democratic majorities and strengthening the hand of popular GOP Gov. Phil Scott, who was elected to a fifth term by a landslide margin and campaigned heavily on behalf of Republicans in the state legislature. For Democrats, the party’s biggest victory was arguably not winning a chamber but rather holding the Pennsylvania state House — an accomplishment that speaks to the bruising night Democrats in state legislatures faced throughout the country. Democratic Gov. Josh Shapiro will continue to do business with a divided legislature: Democrats control the House and Republicans manage the Senate. Democrats are also celebrating picking up 14 seats in Wisconsin, thanks to new maps that give them hope they’ll be able to flip the legislature in the near future. New maps in Montana also helped Democrats gain nine seats in the state House and two seats in the state Senate, taking away Republicans' supermajority. And Democrats broke the GOP’s supermajority in the North Carolina state Assembly, taking away Republican power to override the governor's vetoes. That will spare Democratic Governor-elect Josh Stein from the treatment received by his predecessor, Roy Cooper: Republicans overturned all 11 of Cooper’s vetoes in his final year in office. Yet those modest successes were tempered by disappointments elsewhere. Before the election, Democrats were optimistic about their chances in purple states like Arizona, where Democrats believed this cycle was their best shot at flipping the Legislature in years. But Democrats ended up losing seats in both chambers in the state. Another disappointment for Democrats was Idaho, where the party bragged about recruiting a candidate to run in every district for the first time in at least 30 years, believing they had an opportunity to bring over voters alienated by the rightward turn of the GOP. Instead, they lost seats in both chambers, and now will control just 15 out of 105 legislative seats. But there’s always next year. Just two months after the 2024 election cycle ended, special elections are set for two Virginia seats in early January that could determine if Democrats maintain their majority in Richmond. Both races are unfolding in Loudoun County, located right outside of Washington, which has been a safe zone for Democrats. But the suburban county shifted toward Trump in the presidential race, providing one of the early warning signs for Democrats that Election Night would not go their way. Those races will set the tone for when the entire state House is up for reelection in November. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at pdemko@politico.com and lcrampton@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @pauldemko and @liz_crampton .   A message from American Beverage: America’s beverage companies – The Coca-Cola Company, Keurig Dr Pepper and PepsiCo – are iconic American companies making American products with American workers in America’s hometowns. And we’re committed to doing our part to address today’s health challenges. We’ve taken real steps for more than a decade to transform the beverage aisle, like offering smaller portion sizes, more zero-sugar options and putting nutrition information right up front. Explore more at BalanceUS.org.   What'd I Miss? What does it say about U.S. CORPORATE MEDIA that the killing of a WEALTHY, OVERPAID CEO who leads a FOR PROFIT HEALTH CARE Company known for denying claims & destroying patients' lives gathers WALL-TO-WALL MEDIA COVERAGE?  — Police apprehend person of interest in UnitedHealthcare CEO’s killing: A person of interest in the killing of UnitedHealthcare CEO Brian Thompson is in custody , according to New York City police officials. Police arrested 26-year-old Luigi Mangione in Altoona, Pennsylvania, a small city that’s a four-hour drive west of Philadelphia, on firearm charges on Monday, said Police Commissioner Jessica Tisch at a press briefing. A witness recognized the man from images of the suspect that were circulated by police after he walked into a McDonald’s on Monday morning. After police detained him, they found a gun similar to the one used in the slaying of Thompson last week. JASON MILLER 'WALKS BACK...? Ya mean WHITE WASH? THE JANUARY 6 COMMITTEE REPORTS are available online for public review. It was their responsibility to Americans to document what transpired - it was an attempt to OVERTHROW DEMOCRACY based on LIES! MAGA should recognize LIES....  — Trump adviser says suggestion to jail Jan. 6 committee members was taken out of context: Jason Miller, a senior adviser to Donald Trump, on Monday sought to walk back the president-elect’s recent statement that he believes the members of the House’s Jan. 6 committee who investigated him should be jailed . Trump, who has a history of calling for revenge against his political opponents, made the assertion during a wide-ranging interview on “Meet the Press” that was recorded Friday and aired Sunday. excerpt: “[Former Rep. Liz] Cheney was behind it, and so was [Rep.] Bennie Thompson and everybody on that committee. For what they did, honestly, they should go to jail,” Trump said in the interview. When asked if he would direct his incoming FBI director and attorney general to send the former committee members to jail, Trump said “No, not at all. I think that they'll have to look at that, but I'm going to focus on drill, baby, drill.” During an interview on CNN Monday, Miller said Trump’s comments were taken out of context. “What President Trump said, if you listen to the entire 'Meet the Press' interview, is he wants everyone who he puts into key positions of leadership ... to apply the law equally to everybody,” Miller said. He continued, “as far as the politics aspect, if you listen to the entire interview with President Trump, he said he's going to leave that up to the law enforcement agents in charge, including Pam Bondi and Kash Patel.” Cheney called Trump’s comments an “assault on the rule of law and the foundations of our republic” in a statement to news outlets Monday. It wasn’t his first threat against the former GOP congressmember who went on to campaign for Vice President Kamala Harris — early last month, Trump suggested he would like to see how Cheney would fare “with a rifle standing there with nine barrels shooting at her.” Former GOP Rep. Adam Kinzinger, who was also a member of the committee, said on CNN Sunday he is “not worried about it at all in the least” about the threats, adding it’s “not a sin” to embarrass Trump. — Veteran Daniel Penny is acquitted in NYC subway chokehold case : A Marine veteran who used a chokehold on an agitated subway rider was acquitted on Monday in a death that became a prism for differing views about public safety, valor and vigilantism. A Manhattan jury delivered the verdict, clearing Daniel Penny of criminally negligent homicide in Jordan Neely’s death last year. A more serious manslaughter charge was dismissed earlier in deliberations because the jury deadlocked on that count.   Billions in spending. Critical foreign aid. Immigration reform. The final weeks of 2024 could bring major policy changes. Inside Congress provides daily insights into how Congressional leaders are navigating these high-stakes issues. Subscribe today .     THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION FAMILIAR FACE — Pete Marocco, a former Trump administration official who was reportedly caught on camera inside the Capitol on Jan. 6, 2021, is now working with President-elect Donald Trump's transition on national security personnel matters, according to three people familiar with the situation. Marocco, who drew internal fire when he worked in numerous agencies in the Trump administration and more recently was a conservative activist in Dallas, has been seen at the transition’s Florida headquarters working on hiring, including for the State Department, according to two of the people who saw him. One of the people said he was interviewing candidates this week. Trump transition spokesperson Karoline Leavitt said in a statement that Marocco’s “valuable knowledge on national security policy has been a tremendous benefit to the Trump-Vance transition effort.” ONWARD AND UPWARD — Lara Trump is stepping down as co-chair of the Republican National Committee , a role she has held since March, as some of Donald Trump’s allies continue to push for her to replace Florida Sen. Marco Rubio on Capitol Hill. In announcing her resignation on X, Lara Trump, who is the president-elect’s daughter-in-law, said “the job I came to do is now complete,” touting the RNC’s fundraising records, election integrity efforts and voter turnout. She’s expressed openness to replacing Rubio, the president-elect’s pick to be secretary of State, in the Senate, telling The Associated Press it’s a role she “would seriously consider.” NO CONFIDENCE VOTE — Incoming Senate Judiciary Chair Chuck Grassley said he has lost confidence in FBI Director Christopher Wray and is calling for him to stand aside . “For the good of the country, it’s time for you and your deputy to move on to the next chapter in your lives,” the Iowa Republican wrote in an 11-page letter Monday to Wray. “I therefore must express my vote of no confidence in your continued leadership of the FBI.” FBI BACKGROUND CHECK & SECURITY CHECK SERIOUSLY NEEDED FOR KASH PATEL! Grassley’s view is a boost to Kash Patel, President-elect Donald Trump’s pick to succeed Wray atop the FBI who is kicking off his meetings with senators Monday. There have yet to be major warning signs for the Patel nomination from GOP lawmakers.   A message from American Beverage:   AROUND THE WORLD Friedrich Merz arrives at Bellevue Palace in Berlin, Germany, on Nov. 7, 2024. | Ebrahim Noroozi/AP AUSTRIA REACTS — Austria has announced plans to deport Syrian migrants following the fall of the country’s dictator Bashar Assad to rebel forces after 13 years of civil war, while Belgium, France, Greece and Germany are pausing Syrian asylum applications. “I have instructed the ministry to prepare an orderly return and deportation program to Syria,” Interior Minister Gerhard Karner told Austrian media, without clarifying which migration statuses would be targeted. Some 100,000 Syrians live in Austria, according to the country’s statistics agency. One day after Syrian rebel factions, led by Hayat Tahrir al-Sham (HTS) — designated as a terrorist organization by the United States and the United Kingdom — toppled Damascus, Austria, Belgium, Greece, and Germany are using the success of the rebels to revise their migration policies, with all four closing their doors to asylum seekers. The U.K. has also said it will stop processing asylum applications from Syrians. A ‘COMMON VISION’ FOR UKRAINE — Ukraine's major European allies should forge an alliance aimed at agreeing on a "common vision" for peace in Ukraine , the leader of Germany's conservative opposition, Friedrich Merz, said during a visit to Kyiv Monday. Merz, who is in pole position to become Germany's next chancellor ahead of a federal election in his country slated for Feb. 23, suggested European leaders, along with Ukraine, would need their own strategy for how to bring an end to the war given the impending arrival of Donald Trump in the White House. "With the change of power in the U.S. there is a possibility we will have a new situation and we have to prepare for it," said Merz in Kyiv. "We have to create a common strategy" within Europe.   Write your own chapter in the new Washington. From the Lame Duck Congress Series to New Administration insights, POLITICO Pro delivers intelligence across 22+ policy areas to help you anticipate and navigate change. Discover how a Pro subscription empowers you. Learn more today .   Nightly Number 8 The number of civil lawsuits — including from members of Congress and injured police officers — that Donald Trump is likely to be fighting deep into his second term . They may be the last form of legal redress Trump faces for his role in spurring the Capitol riot on Jan. 6, 2021. RADAR SWEEP COOKIE CRAZE — Crumbl took the cookie world by storm, creating a social phenomenon of weekly reviews by influencers showcasing a new menu. The company now has over 1,000 locations and 9.6 million followers on its official TikTok account. Debuting new flavors and elaborate styles of cookies weekly adds a form of mystery and anticipation for consumers, while the weekly rotating menu is akin to luxury brands dropping exclusive apparel. As it turns out, the founders of Crumbl weren’t familiar with baking but used their expertise in tech and marketing to build an empire. The question is whether the brand is sustainable. For Vox, Whizy Kim explores the intersection of social media and Crumbl. Parting Image On this date in 1980: Police lead suspect in the murder of John Lennon — Mark David Chapman (center, head covered) — from the 20th precinct on Manhattan’s Upper West Side. Lennon was shot and killed the evening before — Chapman was ultimately convicted and sentenced to 20 years to life; he remains in prison. | AP   A message from American Beverage: America’s beverage companies are committed to delivering families the freedom to choose the beverage that’s right for them. And it’s working. Thanks to our innovation, nearly 60% of the beverages Americans buy have no sugar or calories. Our commitment to helping Americans find the right balance for them includes: · Offering more than 600 brands with less sugar or no sugar at all. · Putting clear calorie labels on the front of every bottle, can and pack. · Encouraging consumers to think about balance with signs on coolers and displays in store. · Voluntarily removing full-calorie beverages from schools through our National School Beverage Guidelines, which cut beverage calories in schools by 94%. In fact, the USDA Smart Snacks in Schools Beverage Guidelines were largely based on these guidelines. Learn more at BalanceUS.org.   Samantha Latson contributed to this newsletter.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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Trump Supporter Confronted On Her Dedication To MAGA

 
"R" SUPPORTERS ARE CONSPICUOUSLY UINFORMED, REFUSE TO
RESEARCH VOTES OR GRASSLEY'S CONDUCT.... 

RELEASING FBI INFORMATION ABOUT ALEXANDER SMIRNOV WAS 
A BETRAYAL TO GRASSLEY'S COMMITMENT 

ALEXANDER SMIRNOV WAS PAID FOR HIS LIES & GRASSLEY'S WAS 
DUMB ENOUGH TO BROADCAST THOSE LIES!

THE FBI HAD QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CREDIBILITY OF THIS INFORMANT WHO 
WAS SUBSEQUENTLY ARRESTED, A RUSSIAN AGENT 
PREVIOUSLY PAID $600,000 BY tRUMP ALLIES FOR HIS LIES 

This is a major problem with MAGA's philosophy. Leave a comment with your thoughts below! Be a driving force for change by supporting our work: https://go.tyt.com/rebelhq #RebelHQ #News #Politics

 CHUCK GRASSLEY 
https://ballotpedia.org/Chuck_Grassley

A tale of 2 Grassleys: Partisan investigator and bipartisan dealmaker

He says he treats every issue distinctly. Republicans insist he’s always been that way. His Democratic opponent accuses him of changing before the election.
https://www.politico.com/news/2022/09/16/chuck-grassley-gop-00057099

IN OTHER WORDS, IT'S OK IF KIDS GO HUNGRY!

GOP senator doesn’t want to pass a tax bill because it could make Biden ‘look good’

Sen. Chuck Grassley made the comments ahead of a House vote on a $78 billion package that would expand the child tax credit and provide some tax breaks for businesses.
https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/congress/gop-senator-doesnt-want-pass-tax-bill-make-biden-look-good-rcna136649

THE FBI HAD QUESTIONS ABOUT THE CREDIBILITY OF THIS INFORMANT WHO 
WAS SUBSEQUENTLY ARRESTED, A RUSSIAN AGENT 
PREVIOUSLY PAID $600,000 BY tRUMP ALLIES FOR HIS LIES 

DIMWITS LIKE GRASSLEY WERE CHARGED WITH NOT PUBLICIZING 
QUESTIONABLE STATEMENTS....THEN VIOLATED THEIR COMMITMENT 

GRASSLEY IS NO HERO! 

Defiant Sen. Chuck Grassley defends sharing report detailing Biden bribe claims by indicted informant: ‘Pushed the FBI to do their job’

EXCERPT:

The allegation put forward by FBI informant Alexander Smirnov stated that Burisma Holdings owner Mykola Zlochevsky claimed to have paid $5 million apiece to Joe and Hunter Biden in exchange for their help in removing Ukrainian Prosecutor-General Viktor Shokin from office while the elder Biden was vice president.

There is no record or evidence of either of the Bidens receiving any transfers in that amount and President Biden himself has vehemently denied the claim.

https://nypost.com/2024/02/27/us-news/defiant-chuck-grassley-defends-sharing-biden-bribe-claim-by-indicted-fbi-informant/

GOP Plan BLOWS UP, FAKE Whistleblower ARRESTED ALEXANDER SMIRNOV, RUSSIAN INFORMANT

 

MeidasTouch host Ben Meiselas reports on the indictment and arrest of Alexander Smirnov who was the main witness for the GOP in their sham impeachment of President Biden.

FOCUS: Ken Klippenstein | After Overturning Roe v. Wade, Scotus Treats Itself to Sprawling Security Detail

 

28 June 23

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FOCUS: Ken Klippenstein | After Overturning Roe v. Wade, Scotus Treats Itself to Sprawling Security Detail
Ken Klippenstein, The Intercept
Klippenstein writes: "After the Dobbs decision leaked, the Supreme Court more than doubled its protective detail, despite no evidence of a heightened threat." 

After the Dobbs decision leaked, the Supreme Court more than doubled its protective detail, despite no evidence of a heightened threat.

When people took to protesting outside of the homes of Supreme Court justices following the leak of the draft decision to overturn Roe v. Wade, hundreds of federal agents were quietly watching, both in real life and online, for “concerning communications.” Now the Court has sought to enshrine the new praetorian guard indefinitely, according to documents reviewed by The Intercept.

The Supreme Court sought millions for security last year, enlisting the U.S. Marshals to provide personal details for the justices. A year later, that security force hasn’t seen a significant increase in threats or attacks, according to documents reviewed by The Intercept, but the Supreme Court is asking to continue — and in some cases, even augment — the high level of security.

Last summer, hundreds gathered outside the homes of the conservative justices to protest the Dobbs decision, which effectively eliminated reproductive rights for millions. Top Republicans quickly cast the demonstrations as illegal, arguing that they were tantamount to an attempt to influence a judge, which is a crime.

“It is beyond dispute that far-left activists have launched a concerted and coordinated effort to intimidate the Court into changing the draft Dobbs decision,” Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, ranking member of the Judiciary Committee, said in a letter to Attorney General Merrick Garland in May of last year. “I urge you to publicly commit to protecting the justices, and to condemn and prosecute anyone seeking to threaten and intimidate the Court into changing its decision.

Though the Supreme Court has its own police force, following Grassley’s letter, the Justice Department dispatched the U.S. Marshals Service to augment their security details. Congress passed the Supreme Court Police Parity Act, which extends security to Supreme Court justices’ immediate family members.

Yet, apart from one bizarre incident last June, when an armed California man traveled to Washington claiming an intent to assassinate Justice Brett Kavanaugh before turning himself in to authorities, there have been no acts of violence attempted or committed against justices. No protesters were arrested. Aggregate data, in fact, shows that threats to the judiciary in general went down in 2022.

In November, Justice Amy Coney Barrett even made light of the protests at a Federalist Society dinner after receiving a standing ovation. “Thank you. It’s really nice to have a lot of noise made that’s not by protesters outside my house,” Coney Barrett cracked.

The Supreme Court has continued to beef up security in response to perceived threats to justices from abortion activists anyway. In the past year, the Court expanded its security detail to include 400 U.S. Marshals through the new SCOTUS Special Security Officer Program, more than doubling the number of officers assigned to the security of the justices and their residences.

The Marshals’ annual report to Congress, released in April, sheds light on their response to the protests, which included “24-hour online threat screening coverage for the SCOTUS, all justices and their residences” as well as “real-time online research” into suspected threats at justices’ homes.

Although a year has passed since the Supreme Court overturned Roe on June 24, the Marshals this year requested an additional $21 million for 46 new positions, including 42 more Marshals, to bolster security to judges in the next fiscal year.

The Court specifically cited overturning Roe v. Wade as fueling an extra need. “As a result of the Dobbs decision,” the Marshals’ budget request explains, in reference to the case that overturned Roe, “SCOTUS contacted the [U.S. Marshals Service] to request assistance in securing their facility,” resulting in “additional security posts and Special Security officers to provide this enhanced level of on-site monitoring and presence of officers.”

During the Trump administration, the U.S. Marshals provided security details of questionable necessity. Former President Donald Trump’s education secretary, Betsy DeVos, faced criticism after her U.S. Marshals Service protective detail racked up over $24 million in costs, “the largest U.S. Cabinet-level protection detail in [U.S. Marshals Service] history.” Trump’s Environmental Protection Agency administrator, Scott Pruitt, ran up over $3.5 million, costs the EPA’s inspector general found were unjustified and were incurred without conducting a threat analysis to determine whether the protection was even necessary.

Earlier this year, the Supreme Court also separately requested a budget increase of $5.8 million over the previous year’s budget to augment its own police force, the Supreme Court Police. “This request would expand security activities conducted by Supreme Court Police to protect the Justices,” the budget document explains. “On-going threat assessments show evolving risks that require continuous protection.” The Supreme Court’s police force numbers about 125 officers, according to a 2018 report by Security Today.

But neither the Supreme Court police force nor the U.S. Marshals details the threats that are used to justify millions in extra security, and publicly available assessments point in the opposite direction.

The Marshals’ report cites 260 instances of “concerning communications” that were referred to the Supreme Court Police for further investigation. The previous year’s annual report did not identify any instances of “concerning communications” to the Supreme Court, instead focusing on “inappropriate communications” concerning DeVos, though no number is provided.

But threats against Supreme Court justices were not enough to dent the Marshals’ aggregate data on threats against its judiciary protectees, which actually reflect a decrease in the year of the Dobbs decision. (Annual data specific to threats against justices is not available.)

Though there was a raft of vandalism directed at churches and other anti-abortion facilities after the Dobbs ruling — in a recent case, the firebombing of a vacant anti-abortion clinic — experts say that violence has largely been directed at property.

“I am not aware of any serious bodily injury caused by pro-choice activists,” Michael German, a former FBI agent and fellow with the Brennan Center For Justice’s Liberty and National Security Program, told The Intercept.

Even in the case of the man who traveled from California with a plan to attack Kavanaugh, security did not intervene; he called the police and turned himself in. German said that he is not aware of anyone else being charged with making threats against a Supreme Court justice, a felony.

Not everyone in Congress intended their bill to be a blank check for the Court. Sen. Jeanne Shaheen, D-N.H., pressed Garland, the attorney general, about the Marshals’ protective detail in a March 28 Senate hearing, asking whether it would “continue indefinitely.”

“So you’re not anticipating this to go on long term then?” Shaheen asked.

“We’re hoping that it doesn’t go on long term,” Garland replied.

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FOCUS: Ken Klippenstein | The FBI Is Hunting a New Domestic Terror Threat: Abortion Rights Activists

 

 

17 June 23

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FOCUS: Ken Klippenstein | The FBI Is Hunting a New Domestic Terror Threat: Abortion Rights Activists
Ken Klippenstein, The Intercept
Klippenstein writes: "After GOP pressure, FBI abortion 'terrorism' investigations increased tenfold, government data shows."   

After GOP pressure, FBI abortion “terrorism” investigations increased tenfold, government data shows.

Following a concerted effort by Republicans to pressure law enforcement agencies to target activists supporting the right to abortion, the FBI dramatically increased its caseload on abortion-related “domestic terrorism.”

Last year, as the Supreme Court’s decision to overturn Roe v. Wade sparked major protests nationwide, the FBI opened nearly 10 times as many investigations into cases of abortion-related domestic terrorism as it had in 2021, a new internal report reveals. While the report doesn’t say how many of these incidents were motivated by support for reproductive rights and how many were anti-abortion, the uptick follows calls by top Republicans in Congress for the bureau to pursue “pro-abortion terrorism.”

“Pro-abortion terrorism is sweeping our nation,” Sen. Marco Rubio, R-Fla., wrote in a column last June, lamenting that “only after the outcry from the pro-life community did the FBI announce an investigation” into Jane’s Revenge — a small group of activists that firebombed an anti-abortion pregnancy center on June 7, 2021 — and that the attorney general “has yet to launch a wider DOJ investigation.” While conceding “no one has been killed or seriously injured,” Rubio said, “Things will only get worse before they get better.” (Facebook later quietly designated Jane’s Revenge a terrorist organization, as The Intercept reported.)

Rubio’s column cited roughly 50 attacks on anti-abortion activists and institutions, linking to a list posted by the anti-abortion Family Research Council. Apart from the actions of Jane’s Revenge, most of the cases enumerated describe simple vandalism.

Sen. Chuck Grassley, R-Iowa, similarly urged the bureau to go after so-called pro-choice extremists. “Responding to the current threat of pro-abortion violent extremism will require the FBI to continue its efforts to identify and investigate cases of abortion-related violence across our country at a high rate,” Grassley wrote in a June 27 letter to FBI Director Christopher Wray last year.

As vice chair of the Senate Intelligence Committee and then-ranking member of the Judiciary Committee, respectively, both of which oversee the FBI, Rubio and Grassley were both in a position to influence bureau leadership, and it appears the bureau listened.

The FBI’s abortion-related terrorism investigations jumped from three cases in the fiscal year 2021 to 28 in 2022, a higher increase than any other category listed, according to an audit published by the Department of Justice Office of the Inspector General on June 6. The number of abortion-related cases in 2022 far exceeds that of all previous years included in the audit, going back to 2017.

In the same time frame, FBI investigations into “racially or ethnically motivated extremists” decreased from 215 to 169; investigations into “anti-government / anti-authority” declined even more sharply, from 812 to 240. In fact, the only other category to see an increase in cases was “animal rights / environmental,” which underwent a modest increase from seven to nine cases.

Again, the report does not specify what proportion of the cases are motivated by support for reproductive rights or anti-abortion views. Asked about the specific breakdown, the FBI did not respond to a request for comment. But in testimony before the Senate on November 17, 2022, Wray revealed that the vast majority of the bureau’s investigations are focused on violence against anti-abortion individuals or organizations.

“Since the Dobbs Act decision, probably in the neighborhood of 70 percent of our abortion-related violence cases or threats cases are cases of violence or threats against pro-life,” Wray said. “Now we have quite a number of investigations as we speak into attacks or threats against pregnancy resource centers, faith-based organizations, and other pro-life organizations.”

But experts say the vast majority of serious violence in abortion-related cases is carried out by individuals trying to stop people from having abortions. From 1993 to 2016, 11 murders and 26 attempted murders were carried out by anti-abortion advocates, according to NARAL Pro-Choice California. In contrast, Michael German, a former FBI agent and a fellow with the Brennan Center for Justice’s Liberty and National Security Program, said that he was not aware of a single case of serious bodily injury caused by abortion rights advocates.

“There is a long history of deadly anti-abortion violence in this country,” German said. “The FBI should not devote counterterrorism resources to vandalism cases that don’t threaten human life out of some flawed notion of parity.

“Counterterrorism resources should be directed to the most serious threats,” German told The Intercept. While the Department of Homeland Security defines domestic terrorism such that it “must be dangerous to human life” or critical infrastructure, the FBI does not have this requirement. “Mere vandalism and property damage, while crimes that might deserve state and local police attention, should not be treated as terrorism.”

Since the bureau collapses both anti-abortion and abortion rights into the same abortion-related threat category and doesn’t collect data on specific incidents, they exercise considerable discretion in determining which side to investigate.

“That’s part of why the FBI resists collecting data on domestic terrorism incidents: it frees them to target by bias and ideologies they oppose rather than the data regarding actual acts of violence,” German said.

As the global war on terror draws down, the FBI is increasingly focusing its attention domestically. In 2021, the bureau more than doubled its domestic terrorism caseload according to Senate testimony by Wray, who warned that domestic terrorism was “metastasizing across the country.”

While the January 6 uprising is an obvious driver, as the bureau’s focus on individuals supporting reproductive rights makes clear, its domestic terrorism investigations are targeted at both the right and left alike. Wray’s Senate testimony noted that the uptick in their domestic terrorism investigations began in the spring of 2020, when civil unrest arose in response to George Floyd’s murder.

“I think there has been a big push in right-wing media to drum up a fear of pro-choice violence, like they did with ‘Antifa,’” German said. “Agents are probably influenced by it.”

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