Today in Politics, Bulletin 214. 9/25/25 Ron Filipkowski Sep 25 ∙ … After putting farmers out of business with his tariffs, Trump announced that he is going to bail them out with more govt welfare: “We’re gonna take some of that tariff money that we’ve made, we’re gonna give it to our farmers who for a little while are going to be hurt until the tariffs kick in to their benefit.” … But the tariff money is in the US Treasury. Trump can’t take any of it and give it to anyone - it isn’t in a Trump Tariff Slush Fund to dole out. He has to go to Congress and have them do another farm bailout bill like he did in his first term the last time he did this to them. Which means American taxpayers will be asked to pay farmers since they are unable to sell their products to China. The Golden Age of Trumpnomics. … Mike Pence’s former Chief of Staff Marc Short: “American farmers don’t want handouts and bailouts. They want a reliable trade agenda that allows them to export crops to the world.” … Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA): “Farmers VERY upset about Argentina selling soybeans to China right after USA bailout. There are still ZERO USA soybeans sold to China. Meanwhile, China is still hitting the US with a 20% retaliatory tariff. WE NEED A CHINA TRADE DEAL NOW. Farmers need markets to boost the farm economy.” … Agriculture.com: “The US soybean harvest began in Sept without any orders from the world’s largest buyer: China. American producers are harvesting a crop the USDA estimates at 4.3 billion bushels, and there is no indication of when shipments to China will resume. In a typical year, China buys more than half of all US soybean exports. Meanwhile, Brazil set a record for shipments to China from Jan-Aug.” … Grassley later posted: “Why would USA help bail out Argentina while they take American soybean producers’ biggest market??? We should use leverage at every turn to help hurting farm economy. Family farmers should be top of mind in negotiations by representatives of USA.” … So we are bailing out Argentina while Argentina’s farmers sell soybeans to China in the place of American farmers which is putting them out of business, so now we also have to bail out American farmers while Argentinian farmers make bank. Makes sense. … Ag Secretary Brooke Rollins: “Soybean, corn, wheat, sorghum, cotton farmers are facing very difficult times. We are currently in conversations here at the WH, across the govt, on a farmer aid package.” … ONE WOULD THINK since these are overwhelmingly Trump voters in red states that this is the sort of thing that would give Democrats in Congress some negotiating leverage on other priorities. I guess we will see how that goes. … High Plains Public Radio: “Kansas farmers are hurting after China’s retaliatory tariffs on the US closed a major market for the state’s biggest crop. Despite a productive year, farmers across KS may not break even. Farm fields across KS are turning amber as sorghum crops come to full maturity. The state’s farmers are expecting a bountiful harvest this year thanks to more rain than recent years. But that’s also coming at the same time the sorghum market is drying up thanks to US tariffs on China. That means KS farmers are losing out.” … “Historically, KS is known as the wheat state. But in more recent years, it’s become the king of sorghum. The grain grows really well in KS. It’s also versatile like corn and can be used for livestock feed and biofuel production. In Scott City, Amy France and her husband have been growing sorghum for decades. Even one of their children started farming nearby. She said their crop was gorgeous this year: … “It was the best crop we’ve had in years. We’re expecting a 23% larger crop this year, which is absolutely a blessing. China has been our number one export market. With that being gone at the moment, it is difficult, leaving our producers without our single most critical outlet.” … “Trump’s trade war with China resulted in the sorghum price plummeting, leaving KS farmers unable to benefit from their productive crops. In 2022, the price for grain was $12.30 per hundredweight, which would be a little over $6 per bushel. For an average KS farmer, that would be about $400 per acre. But now the price is hovering around $3 per bushel, or about $200 per acre.” … “Sorghum producers rely on the international market. The crop does not have a robust domestic market because most ethanol plants and feedyards prefer corn. Over half of the state’s sorghum is exported, mostly to be used as animal feed or as an ingredient in a popular alcoholic drink in China. Earlier this year, the US imposed new tariffs on China. In retaliation, China enacted its own new tariffs on American imports. That’s led to buyers there purchasing little to no sorghum from US farmers since April.” … Citadel CEO Ken Griffin to CNBC: “Is that our country, that we’re going to favor the big and the connected? That’s not the American story. When the state becomes involved in picking winners and losers, there’s only one way this game ends: All of us lose. I spoke about my concerns with the crony capitalism if we went down the path of tariffs. The line outside the WH of every business arguing why they should be exempt from paying tariffs on what they import into their products is nauseating.” … Which is EXACTLY why Congress has exclusive constitutional authority to impose tariffs. But Trump wants to be an autocrat, and unilateral tariff authority forces CEOs to come to him begging. Then he can extort what he wants from them personally. … I posted this on Feb 1, 2025. BEFORE any tariffs were imposed. … Forbes: “Trump’s $100,000 H1-B fee is a ‘blessing in disguise’ for European AI startups that need more senior level talent, founders say. The ‘human tariff’ will likely impact early stage US startups that use equity for compensation. One EU tech CEO: “We almost say thank you to Trump, in a way. He’s really helping us keep our talent.” … Executive recruiter for casinos Mark Wayman: “Never seen so many ‘OpenToWork’ signs on LinkedIn. MGM, Caesars, IGT. Toughest job market I have seen...ever. Even worse than Depression 2.0 in 2008. Have a rainy day fund (6-12 months of living expenses), stay in touch with your professional network (85% of job referrals come from your network), keep your resume updated, and an Executive Recruiter on speed dial.” … When Trump made the remarks about bailing out farmers, he was meeting with Turkish President Erdogan. As he was doing his daily rant about the 2020 election being stolen, he pointed at Erdogan and said this: “It was a rigged election. He knows about rigged elections better than anybody.” … Trump isn’t right about everything like he claimed in his speech to the UN, but he is occasionally right about a few things. Maybe he didn’t realize Erdogan was still in the room. … Trump then started ranting about the shooting at the ICE facility in Texas: “Bad things happen when they play these games. I’ll give you a little clue, the right is a lot tougher than the left. And they better not get them energized because it won’t be good for the left.” … House Homeland Security Democrats responded: “The President is sick and deranged — openly threatening political violence and thinking it’s all some kind of game. How can anyone defend this?” … Trump: “I’m very disappointed in Putin. With all of the heavy bombardment over the last two weeks, they have gained almost no land. I’m not going to ever call anybody a paper tiger but Russia has spent millions and millions of dollars in bombs, missiles, ammunition and lives. Their lives. And they’ve gained virtually no land. I think it’s time to stop, I really do.” … Just a few months ago, Trump and Vance were yelling at Zelensky in the Oval Office that he “didn’t have the cards” to stand up to Putin. Now apparently Putin doesn’t have the cards. … Sen. Chris Murphy (D-CT): “Trump’s Ukraine policy is just who was in the room last. What he said here in NY was helpful and positive for Ukraine, but next week he’ll be attacking Zelensky as a corrupt dictator. The real bottom line is that he hasn’t actually done anything to help Ukraine.” … Polish PM Donald Tusk: “President Trump stated that Ukraine, with the support of the EU, could reclaim its entire territory. Behind this surprising optimism lies a promise of reduced US involvement and a shift of responsibility for ending the war to Europe. Better truth than illusions.” … Financial Times’ Christopher Miller: “It seems Poland’s prime minister views Trump’s latest Ukraine remarks the same as many other European officials and Ukrainians.” … CNN: “US deployed four F-16 fighter jets, a surveillance aircraft, and four tankers to intercept Russian bombers and fighter jets that flew into Alaska’s air defense identification zone, the North American Aerospace Defense Command says. There have been at least 9 such instances this year.” … This follows recent Russian airspace violations in Poland, Norway, Denmark, Lithuania, Latvia, Finland, and Romania. … WaPo: “Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has ordered hundreds of the US military’s generals and admirals to gather on short notice - and without a stated reason - at a Marine Corps base in VA next week, sowing confusion and alarm in the ranks. The highly unusual directive was sent to virtually all of the military’s top commanders worldwide. The directive was issued earlier this week.” … A senior Pentagon correspondent told WaPo: “I have never seen anything like this in my 30 years of reporting on the US military. We may be on the brink of war.” … Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent suggested that the US would not honor the NATO charter: “As I told my European counterparts about two weeks ago, ‘All I hear from you is that Putin wants to march into Warsaw. The one thing I’m sure of is that Putin isn’t marching into Boston.’” … Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE): “This is how we talked in the 1930s and we learned it did not work. We are in NATO for very good reasons.” … WSJ: “Every living former Fed chair (Greenspan, Bernanke, Yellen) have joined several former Treasury secretaries (Rubin, Summers, Paulson, Geithner, Lew) and CEA chairs (Hubbard, Mankiw, Romer, Furman, Rouse, Bernstein) who served presidents of both parties, in an amicus brief to the Supreme Court warning a ruling against Lisa Cook’s ability to stay in her job would significantly erode Fed independence.” … Trump posted this on Truth Social: “A REAL DISGRACE took place at the UN - Not one, not two, but three very sinister events! First, the escalator going up to the Main Speaking Floor came to a screeching halt. It stopped on a dime. It’s amazing that Melania and I didn’t fall forward onto the sharp edges of these steel steps, face first. It was only that we were each holding the handrail tightly or, it would have been a disaster. This was absolutely sabotage. The people that did it should be arrested!” … Fox host Maria Bartiromo: “The escalator stopped as soon as he and the first lady stepped on it. Look at how great Melania was. She’s unphased. She walks on it - but this could’ve been a massive, massive issue. The president being frozen there in one place makes him vulnerable.” … Bartiromo’s guest Rep. Greg Steube (R-FL): “Thankfully the first lady and the president had their hands on the rails that were going up the escalator, or they likely would’ve fallen down and injured themselves. It seems to be intentional. I don’t know why we’re still part of the UN.” … Marlene Robertson: “The most hilarious part of the non-working escalator is that Trump didn’t have a clue what to do until Melania started walking up the stairs. He’s that fucking stupid.” … Laura Loomer: “President Trump and the First Lady visited the hostile UN, a globalist and anti-American organization. During their visit, a dangerous incident occurred when the escalator they were on abruptly stopped just as the First Lady stepped onto it, nearly causing a catastrophic injury. The escalator appears to have been stopped remotely from a control room. This alarming act by the UN, perceived as hostile to American interests, could have had graver consequences resulting in severe bodily injury or death to both the First Lady and the President.” … “A fall on an escalator could have resulted in both POTUS and our beautiful First Lady tripping and face planting into metal stairs, which could cause a lethal brain bleed, broken teeth, a broken nose, a head injury, or broken body parts. Fortunately, the First Lady and President Trump are in excellent physical condition, and they were able to withstand this hostile, pre-planned attack and deliberate effort to physically harm and embarrass them in front of the entire world.” … “This was clearly an effort to prevent President Trump from delivering his remarkable speech at UNGA. The individual(s) responsible for this deliberate and sinister act, tantamount to an attempted assassination of the First Lady and the President of the US, must be identified immediately and face severe consequences!” … CNN: “Top congressional Republicans and WH allies are working behind the scenes to prevent a politically charged floor vote to release the govt’s Jeffrey Epstein case files next month. The intensifying effort to halt that floor vote comes as Reps. Thomas Massie and Ro Khanna declared on Wed they have the 218 votes needed to compel one when Congress returns.” … “That final signature on their petition to force the vote will come from Rep.-elect Adelita Grijalva, who won a special election in AZ Tues night, once she is formally sworn in. Some of the GOP lawmakers who have signed on are privately being pressured to withdraw their name from the petition, which would prevent a vote from taking place.” … Massie: “The House leaders and some of the powers that be in DC are in full panic mode right now.” … WSJ did a story about how Trump was surprised that Epstein blew up on him several months ago: “Trump, who had socialized with Epstein in NY and FL and has said he fell out with him before his first arrest in 2006, told aides he couldn’t understand why people were so obsessed with the deceased financier and sex offender. “People don’t understand that Palm Beach in the 90s was a different time,” he groused. … “He called influential allies. Why is everyone so fixated on the issue? He wanted to know. What would make it die down? Trump was used to having absolute control over his base. The Epstein issue was an anomaly: a negative story on which many of his supporters didn’t seem inclined to follow his lead. WH officials said they underestimated how sticky the issue would prove to be, believing it would blow over and people would move on. Instead, it spurred WH Situation Room meetings and months of strategizing by senior admin officials.” … “Trump has told aides he was worried some of his friends might be mentioned in the files, and has complained that people should be talking about the admin’s wins, not about Epstein. At other times, he worried aloud that the files might have been doctored to hurt him.” … When Trump was told the WSJ was about to publish the story about his birthday letter to Epstein, he told aides he was going to call Rupert Murdoch and “kill the story.” He didn’t, and Trump later sued. … As backlash mounted to DOJ’s announcement that it was dropping the Epstein matter, Chief of Staff Susie Wiles convened a series of meetings in the Situation Room to chart an Epstein strategy. Vance, Bondi and Patel and others were invited. Vance led the push for more disclosure. Wiles and others argued that they would never be able to pacify the most rabid Epstein conspiracy theorists.” … Repulsive, reprehensible Ryan Walters on Fox: “I’m excited to announce I will be stepping down as Oklahoma state superintendent and taking on the roll as the CEO of the Teacher Freedom Alliance. We’re going to destroy the teachers unions. We will build an army of teachers to defeat the teachers unions.” … Just two days ago, Walters announced that he was going to require every public school in OK to start a TPUSA chapter in honor of Charlie Kirk. Then he abruptly quit. Not sure what happens to all those Trump bibles he bought with taxpayer money to put in the classrooms. … MSNBC: “Prosecutors in the EDVA US attorney‘s office presented newly sworn US attorney Lindsey Halligan with a memo explaining why charges should not be brought against James Comey, because there isn’t enough evidence to establish probable cause a crime was committed, let alone enough to convince a jury to convict him. DOJ guidelines say a case should not be brought unless prosecutors believe it’s more likely than not that they can win a conviction beyond a reasonable doubt.” … Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN): “The American people have realized that things President Trump said were happening to him were actually taking place. Those that did this need to be held responsible, and it’s important that this go to the grand jury and they send something back. I hope they send it today. I think it would be appropriate to see an indictment.” … Rep. Greg Steube, a member of the Weaponization of Government subcommittee, on James Comey: “In my opinion he should be charged with treason.” … Lawfare: “So let’s try to play Halligan’s hand out for a moment—a ‘Choose Your Own Adventure: Lindsey Halligan Edition,’ if you will. You, the reader, play the role of Halligan. At least as regards Comey, you don’t have a lot of time. The key statute of limitation runs out in 6 days; after that, any case gets exponentially harder. So you have a brief window in which to decide whether or not you really want to pursue this.” … “If you don’t go forward, off with your head. Remember how you got this job, after all. But you know that both cases are weak. How do you know this? Again, remember how you got this job. Your Trumpist US attorney predecessor was willing to lose his job, rather than bring these. So you know you’re playing with a bad hand, but you move forward anyway because you have no choice.” … “Assuming you decide to move forward with the Comey case—you face an immediate problem: What should you charge him with? This isn’t normally a problem prosecutors face, as they start with a crime, then figure out whodunnit, rather than starting with a person and only then deciding whathedun. But Trump wants Comey charged and is convinced he’s guilty of something, and it’s your job now to figure out what.” … “In short, whatever way you play Halligan’s hand, you lose. You lose by bringing a conspiracy case. You lose by bringing a false statements case involving the conduct of the investigation. You lose by bringing a false statements case involving supposed leaks. You lose by not bringing any case. You lose by going after Letitia James. And you lose by going after James Comey. The only question is whether you lose at the hands of a grand jury, a federal judge, or the president who just finished praising you on social media.” … CNN: “AG Pam Bondi and other fed prosecutors have concerns about the case against Comey, though an indictment could come as soon as Thurs. Bondi is facing pressure from Trump, who is demanding his political enemies face criminal charges as he once did. The case focuses on whether Comey made false statements during congressional testimony involving the 2016 investigation into Russian interference in the US presidential election.” … “Some inside the WH view Halligan’s willingness to bring the case as her jumping on a grenade to please Trump – though that is why she was picked to take on the role of leading the Eastern District of Virginia.” Today is our 1 Year Anniversary on Substack, and I wrote an article this morning to thank each of you for subscribing and to explain my general approach to putting this column together each day. You can find that here. We are really trying to build a community, not just a media company. 819,000 of you have joined us in Year 1 and we hope it continues to grow at that incredible pace! Meidas+ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Subscribed … NYT: “A senior DOJ official has instructed more than a half dozen US attorney’s offices to draft plans to investigate a group funded by George Soros, the billionaire Democratic donor whom Trump has demanded be thrown in jail. The move is the latest example of Trump targeting his perceived enemies.” … Politico: “Republicans across the federal govt are eager to hammer Democrats for making bold policy demands ahead of next week’s shutdown deadline. But they’re split on how to do it. Senate Republicans, led by Majority Leader John Thune, are trying to keep the message simple: The GOP wants to keep agencies open for a few more weeks while negotiations continue while Democrats are asking for unreasonable concessions.” … “Speaker Mike Johnson and the House GOP are all-in on a message focusing on how the Democratic wish list would undo Republican-passed provisions barring undocumented immigrants from accessing public services.” … “And then there’s Trump, who delved even deeper into the culture wars when he accused the other party of seeking to ‘force Taxpayers to fund Transgender surgery for minors’ as part of the negotiations — an accusation that has puzzled even some fellow Republicans.” … 5 states require insurance plans to cover gender-reassignment surgeries and related health care for transgender enrollees, and top Trump advisers and outside groups argue that a straight extension of the existing tax credits would continue taxpayer support for those policies. They believe that argument should be a key GOP focus ahead of the potential shutdown.” … JD Vance posted this today: “Democrats are about to shutdown the govt because they demand we fund healthcare for illegal aliens.” … Stephen Miller responded to Vance’s post on their new messaging campaign for the shutdown: “Defunding soldiers to demand free healthcare for illegals.” … Punchbowl: “Trump is threatening large-scale firings of federal workers if the govt shuts down next week, a nuclear tactic to make any funding lapse as painful as possible for Democrats. In an extraordinary memo sent out by OMB Wed, the WH directed fed agencies to come up a with a list of ‘reductions in force’.” … “Democrats view this OMB memo as an intimidation tactic intended to bully them into accepting the House-passed ‘clean’ CR. That’s not to say it’ll work. But Democrats know that shutdowns are already painful, and what Trump is threatening to do on top of that would be catastrophic.” … Sen. Chuck Schumer: “This is an attempt at intimidation. Trump has been firing federal workers since day one — not to govern, but to scare. This is nothing new and has nothing to do with funding the govt. These unnecessary firings will either be overturned in court or the admin will end up hiring the workers back, just like they did as recently as today.” … WaPo: “Across the country, Democratic Senate candidates from Texas to Maine have distanced themselves from Chuck Schumer amid a growing appetite in a rebuilding party for newer, younger leaders eager to wage more aggressive fights against Trump and other Republicans. Some are openly critical of Schumer, who has been in elected office since 1975, while many others have sidestepped questions about him.” … “WaPo contacted the campaigns of major Democratic candidates in a dozen Senate races, including the 9 seen by nonpartisan analysts as the most competitive. None of the candidates or their representatives said they would support Schumer for leader in the next Congress if they win their respective contests.” … Maine Senate candidate Graham Platner: “We are right now living in the outcome of a failed electoral strategy, that is why Democrats don’t hold power, and much of that strategy was driven by Chuck Schumer.” … Michigan Senate candidate Mallory McMorrow: “This is a MAGA party. And the same approach is not going to work.” … Illinois Lt. Gov and Senate candidate Juliana Stratton: “While I respect and applaud the work that Sen. Schumer has done, I also believe it is time for new leadership and new ideas. I do not agree with every decision Sen. Schumer has made — particularly his approach to the budget vote in the spring.” … NY House candidate Alissa Ellman: “Chuck is living in an America that doesn’t exist anymore. Whoever is leading the Democratic Party needs to take a stand.” … NBC: “When Michigan state Sen. Mallory McMorrow decided in Feb that she wanted to run for an open US Senate seat, she conveyed her intentions to the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee. But the committee asked her to hold off. In that call and subsequent ones, DSCC officials didn’t explicitly ask her not to run, but ‘they were slow-walking. It was, ‘Can you wait a little longer, can you wait?’” … “In early April, McMorrow defied their wishes and launched her campaign, inveighing against ‘the same old crap in Washington’ and highlighting polls that showed the Democratic Party’s approval rating at an all-time low. Whether she intended it or not, McMorrow started a trend of Democratic outsiders end-running party leaders to launch their campaigns, sometimes in explicit opposition to them.” … One Democratic strategist who represents several candidates said that the upstart candidates aren’t buying what they are hearing from DC: “Democrats saw their party leaders telling them in 2024: ‘Biden’s gonna win; Trump’s a fascist; Don’t worry, we got this.’” … AOC: “There are definitely elements to this moment that remind me of the conditions that existed in the country, and the general sentiment and mood, when I was elected. These are conditions that an outside candidacy could have the most momentum. Where the electorate is is that they want to support Democrats who are bold, who are standing up, who are fighting against the admin. I don’t think the general electorate is looking for permission from elected leaders to vote for someone or not.” … Politico: “Democratic Rep. Pat Ryan wants to build a bench of patriot-leaders — and is planning to raise millions of dollars to do it. The two-term House lawmaker is launching a PAC today to elect candidates with public service backgrounds, including those with experience in the military, teaching or as first responders. The new group, called Patriot PAC, has the goal of raising more than $2 million for candidates this election cycle.” … Ryan wants Democrats to be seen as “the patriotic party, the party of service. The Republican Party cannot make a claim on it anymore. That creates not only an opportunity, but a need for the Democratic Party to assert what has always been foundational to us, which is that we are that party of selflessness and the common good.” … RFK Jr’s approval rating is not great after the autism press conference: … Kristi Noem was on CNN: Q - “Stephen Miller was calling Democrats a domestic extremist organization. As the head of the DHS, would you agree with that characterization? Noem: We certainly have seen Democrats out there take extreme positions and and support radical criminal organizations. Their support of terrorists like such as MS-13 and Tren de Aragua and seeing US Senators go and have margaritas with them in a foreign country to support them and their child trafficking and human trafficking exploits.” … Q - “But as the DHS Secretary, would you say that Democrats are a domestic extremist organization, yes or no? Noem: Their views are extreme and they don’t align with the American people at all.” … Tom Homan on Newsmax: Q - “What is your message to Gavin Newsom, who says that ICE agents will be require to not wear masks in his state? Homan: Good luck with that.” … Newsom responded with this post: “What if we give you another $50,000 in a paper bag?” … CNN: “Jeremy Carl, top Trump State Dept. nominee, deleted 1000s of social media posts, many with inflammatory commentary, including incendiary posts about race, claims that ‘peaceful coexistence’ with Democrats is impossible, even a call for Randi Weingarten to be executed. One deleted tweet said Capitol rioters on trial had it worse Black people in Jim Crow Mississippi.” … “Carl also repeatedly wrote about the ‘Great Replacement,’ a conspiracy theory that posits there is a plot to intentionally bring non-White immigrants into Western countries to ‘replace’ White populations. He mocked George Floyd’s death and said he was ‘looking up from hell’ and called celebrating Juneteenth a ‘surrender’ for white people.” … Sen. Chris Murphy to MSNBC how Dems can take advantage of Trump’s war on media: “The second remedy is for the Democratic Party to make clear that if you give us power, we’re gonna break up these corporate monopolies, and in particular these media monopolies. If we want to be credible as a critic of Trump’s slide to totalitarianism, then we have to explain how we’re going to put local communities back in charge of their news.” … CBS: “New architectural renderings obtained by CBS News reveal in more detail the WH ballroom that is currently under construction. A 90,000-sq foot ballroom with a seated capacity for 650 people will be constructed in the WH’s East Wing. The new ballroom will be significantly larger than the main WH building, which comprises about 55,000 sq feet over the ground floor, state floor and residence.” … “Corporate and individual donors have pledged nearly $200 million to cover construction costs, and fundraising is ongoing. Google, RJ Reynolds, Booz Allen Hamilton, Lockheed Martin, Palantir and NextEra Energy have donated, and so have firms in the tech, manufacturing, banking and health industries.” … This is the developer’s rendering of the ballroom next to the WH.

 

BREAKING: Russian FM, Sergei Lavrov, Declares Russia Is At War With NATO And The EU. NATO Answers with a Red Line. Let's dig in to the Russian Foreign Minister's statement, and what's really important: We've been at war for 4 years and Russia's blank check threats are bullshit. Dean Blundell Sep 25 September 25, 2025 At the UN in New York, Russian foreign minister Sergey Lavrov declared that NATO and the EU have “already declared a real war” on Russia—his most explicit attempt yet to flip Moscow’s invasion into a defensive narrative and pre-justify retaliation when the West enforces its borders. You power this Substack, and your support has blown us away. We’re offering 50% off annual and monthly subscriptions until the end of the month to say “THANK-YOU” because we wouldn’t be here without you! To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber Hours later, the allied message hardened. NATO’s leadership publicly affirmed that members can target Russian aircraft or drones that enter allied airspace “when necessary,” making clear that escorts are not the only option when incursions look deliberate or threatening. It’s deterrence, out loud. Behind the scenes, European diplomats also delivered a private warning in Moscow: further violations could be met with shoot-downs. That raised the stakes—and prompted a counter-threat from Russian officials that such a response could mean “war.” Why Now? Because the Skies Are the Flashpoint and Ukraine is on the Verge of Winning This isn’t theory. It’s been a month of tests, drones, and brinkmanship on NATO’s eastern flank: Estonia: Three Russian military jets reportedly violated Estonian airspace for roughly 12 minutes—“unprecedentedly brazen,” Tallinn said—triggering Article 4 consultations and a flurry of allied coordination. Moscow denied it. The point still landed: NATO’s red lines are being probed. Baltic–Polish corridor: Repeated drone incursions pushed Lithuania to authorize the army to shoot down violating UAVs; Poland says it’s already intercepted some drones. Allies are moving ROE and cheaper interceptors into place because you can’t fire million-dollar missiles at $30k drones forever. More eyes overhead: Turkey deployed an AWACS to Lithuania, expanding NATO’s airborne command-and-control net as incidents stack up across Estonia, Denmark, and Poland. It’s a visible indicator that the next violation might not end with a polite escort. The Kremlin’s rhetorical gambit—“we’re already at war”—meets a clearer allied proposition: violate our sovereign airspace and you may be engaged. That’s where deterrence is supposed to live: at the edge of certainty. “Shoot One Down and It’s War”: The Coercive Warning Moscow is telegraphing a price tag for Western enforcement. A Russian diplomat warned that a NATO shoot-down could mean “war.” That’s the pressure tactic in one sentence: treat violations as cost-free—or face escalation framed as self-defense. Read that carefully. It’s not a promise of Armageddon; it’s a political threat designed to deter NATO from defending NATO’s own airspace. It’s also a test of allied public opinion. Calling it “war” before the fact helps Moscow launder the next escalation as inevitable. The Backstop: Russia’s War-Supply Triangle—North Korea, Iran, China This week’s bravado rests on logistics. Russia can run a high-tempo war of attrition—and keep daring NATO—because DPRK shells and troops, Iranian drones/missiles, and Chinese dual-use inputs refill Moscow’s magazines and factories. North Korea: North Korean ammunition shipments—measured in thousands of containers and millions of 122/152mm shells—have stabilized Russia’s artillery tempo and offset domestic production gaps. Not to mention the 25k NK troops occupying Ukraine. Iran: Russia’s long-range strikes now lean heavily on Shahed-series one-way attack drones and follow-on variants. Tracking shows near-daily Shahed use across 2025 and deepening cooperation on missiles and UAV tech. China: Beijing denies lethal aid, but dual-use flows—machine tools, semiconductors, engines, UAV components—and technical collaboration with sanctioned Russian arms makers have strengthened Russia’s industrial base. Analysts estimate billions in “high-priority” dual-use exports this year alone. Not to mention the 4-6k CCP troops fighting with Russia in Donbas. Moscow’s “let us do whatever we want—or else” posture only holds if the supply lines hold. For now, they do. Inside Washington: Why an All-Hands at Quantico Matters Add one more piece: Defense Secretary Pete Hegseth has abruptly summoned hundreds of generals and admirals to a base in northern Virginia—extraordinary in both size and timing. No detailed agenda is public; the consensus takeaway is urgency. What could this be? Three plausible reads that all intersect with the airspace crisis: Rules-of-engagement & comms sync: If a NATO member shoots down a Russian aircraft or drone and debris falls on populated territory, you want everyone on the same legal, strategic, and messaging page in the first hour—not the third day. Command-structure tightening: A gray-zone air campaign across the Baltics demands faster ISR-to-engage handoffs; that can mean reshuffling authorities and standing alerts. Narrative discipline: When “war” rhetoric is flying, leaks and freelancing can move markets and missiles. A mass brief signals unity of message before the next incident. There’s going to be a purge, and Heegseth plans to gut the Army/Navy of their leadership ahead of a “different” Conflict Whatever the mix, corralling the flag corps underscores how quickly a border incursion can become a crisis of minutes. The Terrifying Puzzle—Put Together Moscow’s aim: Normalize violations and recast Western self-defense as aggression. Say “we’re already at war” so enforcing airspace looks like escalation, not law. Allied aim: Re-establish deterrence by stating the consequence—up to and including kinetic defense—while quietly thickening ISR and air-defense layers. Logistics reality: DPRK shells, Iranian drones/missiles, and Chinese dual-use inputs keep Russia’s options open—and its rhetoric loud. U.S. posture: A Quantico all-hands is how you pre-wire the chain of command for the day a Russian aircraft doesn’t turn back. Timeline: Sept 10–25, 2025 Sept 10: Lithuania warns the alliance to take drone incursions seriously. Sept 19–20: Estonia reports a 12-minute violation by three Russian jets; Article 4 consultations follow; Moscow denies. Sept 23: Lithuania authorizes shoot-downs of drones violating its airspace; Poland highlights recent interceptions. Sept 23: Trump publicly says NATO countries should shoot down Russian aircraft that violate their airspace. Sept 22–25: Turkey sends AWACS to Lithuania as assurance measures amid rising violations. Sept 25 (AM): Lavrov at the UN says NATO/EU are waging a “real war” on Russia. Sept 25 (PM): European officials privately warn the Kremlin they’re ready to shoot down violating jets; a Russian rejoinder claims such a response could mean “war.” Sept 25 (PM): NATO leadership publicly underscores that allies can target intruders “when necessary.” Sept 25 (PM): Hegseth summons hundreds of generals/admirals to Virginia for an urgent in-person meeting. What to Watch Next First shoot-down risk: Another deliberate drone/fighter probe over the Baltics or Poland—paired with an immediate disinformation blitz about “NATO aggression.” Supply-line sanctions: Expanded U.S./EU penalties on Chinese dual-use exporters enabling Russia’s war industries. Deconfliction hotlines: Whether Moscow tests “search-and-rescue” pretexts after an incident—an easy way to intrude again under a humanitarian flag. The Kicker Lavrov’s “we’re already at war” line isn’t analysis; it’s pretext management. NATO’s answer is calibrated and crystal: Your jets and drones do not get a free pass over allied territory. The danger is the gap between rhetoric and reaction time—measured in minutes, not days—while Russia’s magazines are kept full by DPRK shells, Iranian drones and missiles, and Chinese dual-use tech. And in Virginia, an all-hands summons says Washington wants one voice and one playbook before the next radar track becomes the next crisis. THANK YOU for being here and helping me make this community better! Don’t forget, we’re giving you 50% OFF for unlimited access for life. Monthly, Annual, and Founding plans. 🔒 Lock in the half-price rate forever. Ends September 30, 2025