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Trumps Edges Closer to War With Europe, Saly Comes Home, It's All About Courage Now

May the courage, fearlessness, and humanity of Dr. King be an inspiration to us all in our fight, today......

Simon Rosenberg Jan 19

Morning all. Here’s the MLK quote that I think about most often:

Yesterday we saw ICE remove and detain an elderly Hmong man from his Twin Cities home, without letting him get dressed, in 10 degree weather (via Reuters):

Here is what we now are learning this morning:

A reminder that “Freedom From Fear” is the fourth freedom of FDR’s visionary Four Freedoms:

This morning we are learning that our addled, ailing, and unhinged leader sent the following message to the Prime Minister of Norway, Jonas Gahr Støre:

“Dear Jonas: Considering your Country decided not to give me the Nobel Peace Prize for having stopped 8 Wars PLUS, I no longer feel an obligation to think purely of Peace, although it will always be predominant, but can now think about what is good and proper for the United States of America. Denmark cannot protect that land from Russia or China, and why do they have a “right of ownership” anyway? There are no written documents, it’s only that a boat landed there hundreds of years ago, but we had boats landing there, also. I have done more for NATO than any other person since its founding, and now, NATO should do something for the United States. The World is not secure unless we have Complete and Total Control of Greenland. Thank you! President DJT”

We are also learning that the 11th Airborne, an Army unit that specializes in operating in arctic conditions, has been given “prepare-to-deploy” orders for possible deployment in “Minnesota”:

WASHINGTON (AP) — The Pentagon has ordered about 1,500 active-duty soldiers to be ready in case of a possible deployment to Minnesota, where federal authorities have been conducting a massive immigration enforcement operation, two defense officials said Sunday.

The officials, who spoke on condition of anonymity to discuss sensitive military plans, said two infantry battalions of the Army’s 11th Airborne Division have been given prepare-to-deploy orders. The unit is based in Alaska and specializes in operating in arctic conditions.

One defense official said the troops are standing by to deploy to Minnesota should President Donald Trump invoke the Insurrection Act, a rarely-used 19th century law that would allow him to employ active duty troops as law enforcement.

The move comes just days after Trump threatened to do just that to quell protests against his administration’s immigration crackdown.

MADMAN:

A few days ago Trump declared himself, formerly, “The Acting President of Venezuela,” and implicitly the Emperor of the Americas. In recent days we’ve come to learn that he also now sees himself as the leader of Gaza, and is up to very Trumpian corrupt and malevolent shit there (WaPo, gift link).

Having successfully taken possession of both Gaza and Venezuela in recent weeks, at least in his own mind, Trump is clearly readying to grab his next possession. And it’s a big, icy European one.

Here’s what I wrote yesterday in my essay, Coming Together:

We are here now, deep into dangerous Mad King/Bond Villain territory. 2026 is no longer about affordability or restoring the ACA subsidies. It is about pro-democracy movement somehow coming together and forming a unified and far more powerful front against his dangerous Imperial and dictatorial designs.

In an ideal world, what we would see next week is a public statement signed by all Dem Governors, AGs, Senate and House Democrats that states clearly that

• Rule of law must be re-established in America, ICE must be reined in, and Trump’s outrageous plunder and corruption must end

• That he must back off his illegal and destructive territorial ambitions, end all these ridiculous tariffs, and re-commit to the Trans-Atlantic Alliance

Stake in ground. Unified voice. Muscular defense of liberty, democracy, and the American creed. Yes, it is time now for something akin to our Letter to America, and for our leaders to make clear, before it is too late, that we are willing to come together and fight for America, freedom, and democracy; and for us to start listing, clearly, his modern day “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations.” That we elected an American President and not a dictator, and it is way past fucking time he start acting like one…….

I really don’t know how some leaders of the Democratic Party talked themselves into believing our politics was going to be about “kitchen table” issues and not “No Kings,” Trump’s escalating madness and the clear threat he represents to our freedoms, security, and prosperity. As I’ve been writing here for months the polling doesn’t even back up this strategic choice, as “threats to democracy” has been a top tier issue for voters since the summer. G. Elliott Morris has written about the provocative findings of that new CNN poll we discussed here on Friday:

But if you’re reading this and thinking that Democrats should only be focusing on the economy, since that’s what people say is their top issue (hellooo Chuck Schumer), check out this table showing the reasons people give for disapproving of Trump, in their own words:

If you ask Americans who disapprove of Trump why they don’t like the job he is doing as president, the biggest single policy they will mention is immigration and deportations. Democracy in general is the category with the highest response percentage. After that is “the economy” in general terms, then corruption, then foreign military involvement, then a three-way tie between governance in general, being “unpresidential” in general, and the cost of living specifically.

So if you’re optimizing for decreasing Trump’s disapproval rating, this table suggests hitting the president on the economy might be a less successful strategy than hitting him on immigration, corruption, or his general vibe as president. People say the economy is, in general, important to them, and they say Trump is failing on it, but they do not overwhelmingly cite it as a reason for disapproving of his presidency.

In a presentation I gave to Dem State Chairs in May of last year I talked about how Democrats had developed a listening problem. That our roided up and arrogant data bros had developed narrow and rigid systems that were causing us to miss memes, ideas, sentiments pulsating through the electorate. In his seminal New Yorker essay and in our recent conversation Nathan Heller explains why he believes Democrats don’t understand how to navigate the emerging information environment, and remain wedded to old, outdated understandings of how information moves and opinions are formed. It’s one of the reasons why I hope the DNC chooses to release the most important elements of its look back on the 2024 election. We made some big, structural mistakes about how approached the big argument with Trump in the 2024 election cycle, and we must learn from those mistakes so we don’t make them again this year (which given the data above may already be happening).

What his all comes down to now is courage. Our must leaders must show far more courage. We must challenge Trump on “No Kings,” and his broader agenda of American sabotage, unprecedented plunder, and traitorous betrayal. For one of the great lessons of 2025 is that when we fight Trump head on, we can win. And we know from history that when authoritarians are not challenged, they perceive weakness, and it becomes an encouragement for escalation (like what we are seeing now).

We are Americans. Fighting for freedom and democracy is who we are, and what we do. We to need to get on with it now, meet the moment, and fight for “a new birth of freedom” here in this great country and everywhere around the world…..

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Thanks to everyone who contributed our campaign for the Minnesota DFL. We’ve exceeded our goal and have raised $67,000! Thank you all. Now that we’ve hit our goal we are once again prioritizing our current working line-up:

Winning The Midterms - Support Our Candidates

• Hopium’s Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $77,300 raised, $250,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01), Mayor Paige Cognetti (PA-08), Jo Mendoza (AZ-06), and Janelle Stelson (PA-10)

• Mary Peltola For Alaska Senate - $18,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Volunteer and learn more. Amazing start everyone!

• Winning Ohio - $15,600 raised, $250,000 goal - Our new campaign splits contributions evenly among Sherrod Brown, the Acton/Pepper ticket, and the Ohio Democratic Party. Donate today and help us turn this critical 2026 battleground blue! | Watch my conversation with David Pepper, who does a great overview of the opportunities we have in Ohio this year

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $67k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper and a new, terrific one with NC Dem Party Chair Anderson Clayton

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $113k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps, Winning In Red States and Red Places (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $278,000 raised, $500,000 goal (new stretch goal) - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas. Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties

In three new essays (here, here, here) I discuss how one of the ways we win the 2026 midterms is by providing early support to our candidates and parties to allow them to staff up, be loud, define the terms of the debate now, before the inevitable onslaught on AI slop, Russian disinfo, and Trumpian lies funded through bribes and corruption wash across the land.

The midterms could be won or lost in these next few months - not in the fall of 2026 - and we need be fighting now with everything we got.

Winning The Big Arguments With Trump, Defend Our Democracy - We have two recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:

1. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his current efforts to force Ukraine to surrender

2. Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean and the Pacific - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law, and the US must withdraw from Venezuela and cease other threats to violate the UN Charter and the sovereignty of other nations

3. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world. To put America on a sounder fiscal course due to the enormous deficits brought by Trump’s 2025 tax cuts we should reverse these cuts to the wealthy and corporations

4. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the dangerous occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented regime corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress end the rancid cover up of the Epstein crimes.

5. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA, Medicaid and our clean energy investments; support and co-sponsor the Stand Up For Science/Rep. Haley Stevens effort to remove Robert Kennedy from HHS.

2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - This July 4th America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.

One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.

Finally, please self-report your activities to our daily paid subscriber chat. These reports help inspire all of us to do more and fight harder!

Keep working hard everyone, and I remain so incredibly proud to be in this righteous fight with all of you - Simon

Thank you for your financial support of our wonderful Hopium community. This support allows us to do our work, and keep most of our content free for others to learn from and enjoy.

 

Strong Election Performances, A Deeply Unpopular President, A Regime Cracking and Unraveling - 2026 Is Shaping Up To Be A Year Of Opportunity For Us

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm EST/One week left to elect Eileen Higgins Mayor Of Miami!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Simon Rosenberg Dec 3

Morning all. Here are some headlines Republicans are waking up to today:

“Heading Towards The Midterms, The GOP Continues To Slip” - NYT

“Surprisingly tough Tennessee election reveals House GOP has base problem” - Washington Post

“Republicans held a Trump +22 seat — but by only 9 points. A swing half as large would give Democrats the U.S. House in 2026, and put the Senate clearly in play” - Strength In Numbers

And then there is this beautiful front page of Politico right now:

As I’ve been writing here various measures of party strength and the results from special elections and the November elections put the shift in the national political landscape at somewhere between 7 and 13 points towards the Democrats all across the country. As G. Elliott Morris writes above it’s a big enough shift to make it likely the House flips and the Senate will be in play.

While 2026 is turning out to be a year of opportunity for Democrats and the pro-democracy movement we still have one more election to win this year - electing Eileen Higgins the Mayor of Miami. Please consider donating or volunteering today, and watch our recent conversation to learn more about this huge pick up opportunity in Trump-DeSantis country:

• Eileen Higgins For Mayor Of Miami (Dec 9 run off) - $15,200 raised, $25,000 goal | Donate | Learn More and Volunteer | Enjoy my our conversation with Eileen Higgins

Hopium paid subscribers gather tonight at 7pm EST to review our strong performance in TN-7, thank the inspiring Aftyn Behn for running a terrific race, and discuss how we can close 2025 strong. I look forward to seeing folks tonight.

A few additional observations this morning:

Things Are Likely To Get Worse For Trump and The Rs - The likely scenario next year is that things get worse for the Rs for two reasons: 1) conditions in the US will continue to erode 2) in a month every state and local government will start debating and legislating against the disaster Trump and the Rs have handed them - a slower economy (less revenue), huge health care and social safety net cuts, higher prices and weakened families, struggling small business and farmers, worker shortages and ICE abuses, higher utility prices, gutting of federal grants to large research institutions, etc…..

As bad as things are now for Republicans they are likely to get worse next year, and their electoral prospects will grow more challenging.

It needs to be noted that Trump just keeps dropping in public polls. For months now the big independent polls keep finding him lower than their last poll. He has never stabilized or recovered. Despite their money, their propaganda, their control of government Trump and his team have been unable to stop his slide, suggesting that it just may continue.

Here’s today’s Civiqs track. Just slow, steady, grinding erosion:

Here’s my weekly breakdown of the Economist/YouGov track. Staggering levels of across the board rejection:

The Regime Is Weakening And Starting To Crack - A few fresh examples this morning:

Watch this incredible video CNN found of a pre-Trump Pete Hegseth saying the military must not follow unlawful orders:

Here is a prominent right-aligned legal commentator, a Fox News veteran, saying plainly on Newsmax that Pete Hegseth committed war crimes and should be prosecuted:

Trump fell asleep again yesterday, in the middle of the day, at an event he was hosting for the media, with lights blaring. Trump is struggling to do the very basics of the job now, and his very clear and public physical and cognitive decline must become front and center in our politics now (how can we trust him to protect us, make sound decisions, etc?).

In yesterday’s Cabinet meeting our addled, impulsive, frightened, prone to confusion and misstatement leader had a deeply damaging "they are for the oligarchs, we are for the people” moment:

President Trump on Tuesday downplayed the cost-of-living pains being felt by Americans, declaring that affordability “doesn’t mean anything to anybody” as his political edge on the economy continues to dissipate.

In remarks during a cabinet meeting, Mr. Trump railed against Democrats who have championed the issue, which helped the party secure several off-year election victories last month and is likely to be a defining topic in the midterms next year.

After ticking off what he claimed were trillions of dollars of investments and other economic accomplishments, Mr. Trump called the issue of affordability a “fake narrative” and “con job” created by Democrats to dupe the public.

“They just say the word,” he said. “It doesn’t mean anything to anybody. They just say it — affordability. I inherited the worst inflation in history. There was no affordability. Nobody could afford anything.”

The comments marked something of a turnabout for Mr. Trump, who just last weekend appeared to acknowledge the salience of the issue, calling himself the “affordability president” and promoting his efforts to bring down prices.

The cowardly Speaker’s ability to hold the line for Trump may be coming to an end. From Punchbowl News:

Rep. Elise Stefanik (R-N.Y.) is now engaged in an open war with Speaker Mike Johnson, a very public rift at the highest level of the House Republican Conference.

This fight is ostensibly about a dispute in the NDAA, the annual Pentagon policy bill.

Stefanik is so frustrated that she’s prepared to tank the must-pass defense bill — approved by lawmakers every year for more than six decades — if the speaker doesn’t include a provision requiring the FBI to alert Congress if it opens a counterintelligence investigation into an elected official or candidate. Democrats are opposed to this provision.

“I’ll take down the rule,” Stefanik told us in an interview. Stefanik has made this message clear to House GOP leaders as well.

As of very early Wednesday morning, sources said that Stefanik’s war might be successful. There was an effort afoot to put the provision back in the NDAA, showing that Stefanik’s brutal bare-knuckled effort is gaining traction.

And that’s why this fight says so much about today’s House.

Stefanik, whom Johnson appointed the chair of the Republican leadership, is a wily operator. Remember, Stefanik helped topple former Rep. Liz Cheney (R-Wyo.) back in 2021 for not being loyal enough to President Donald Trump. Stefanik replaced Cheney in the leadership under then Speaker Kevin McCarthy, with whom she enjoyed a better relationship.

Johnson is undergoing a particularly perilous moment. The Louisiana Republican is entering the most difficult stretch of his speakership, with anger over government spending, health care and the broader political climate rife inside the House GOP Conference.

Members find it easy – even convenient – to hammer the speaker. Johnson has little choice but to bend as he has a two-vote margin. And the speaker has lots of retiring members who are running for other offices, often by bashing the very Congress they serve in.

and……

Stefanik has gone absolutely ballistic on Johnson in the most public way during this dispute, saying the speaker was lying about her and instructing him to “fix this” – in other words, get the provision into the bill. Stefanik said Johnson was “blocking” her policy and the speaker was getting “rolled” by Democrats.

Johnson has had an incredibly rough period since the shutdown ended a few weeks ago – as if that episode wasn’t enough.

Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene (R-Ga.) announced her resignation, criticizing the speaker and the House on her way out. There was a revolt on the House floor Tuesday as hardline Republicans led by Rep. Chip Roy (R-Texas). Roy – who is running for Texas attorney general – lashed out at the GOP leadership’s decision to move forward with a bill regulating the pay of collegiate athletes.

And Rep. Anna Paulina Luna (R-Fla.) is so sick of the leadership that she’s filed a discharge petition to force a vote on legislation banning stock trading for members of Congress. Stefanik has signed on.

The politics. Of course, Stefanik is running for governor of New York herself. That comes with a whole host of political priorities that don’t always line up with the House Republican majority. Picking a fight with Johnson might be good for Stefanik’s own Empire State politics, especially if this is seen as a pro-Trump move.

Stefanik can hardly seem to contain her personal disdain for Johnson, though. The tension between Stefanik and Johnson has been at a low boil for some time.

And…..

This is all a huge warning sign for Johnson. If the speaker faces this kind of very public pushback from a member of his own leadership team, how will Johnson be able to make bipartisan deals on Obamacare, FY2026 spending or anything else? Johnson has relied on Trump to help him achieve anything during this Congress, yet what if Republicans need to create distance from Trump in order to further their own careers?

With a margin this thin, Johnson is waging internal battles every day. And that’s even before he can turn his attention to Democrats.

As I wrote to you yesterday the big lesson of 2025 is that when we fight this corrupt, rotten to the core, malevolent, sundowning baby man we can win. Which is why should be approaching these next few months with greater ambition, renewed confidence, and audacious courage. For more is possible for us now - but, only, only, if we fight.

Now, Let’s Get To Work People!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Closing 2025 Strong

• Eileen Higgins For Mayor Of Miami (Dec 9 run off) - $15,200 raised, $25,000 goal | Donate | Learn More and Volunteer | Enjoy my our conversation with Eileen Higgins

Winning The Midterms - Support Our 2026 Candidates

• Roy Cooper for NC Senate (2026) - $55k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my conversation with Gov. Cooper

• Jon Ossoff GA Senate (2026) - $100k raised, $250,000 goal, - Donate | Learn More | Volunteer | Enjoy my inspiring conversation with Senator Ossoff

• Hopium Winning The House Campaign (2026) - $27,000 raised, $50,000 goal - Donate to all four endorsed House challengers with one click | Learn More | Enjoy our new conversations with Christina Bohannan (IA-01) and Jo Mendoza (AZ-06) | Interviews with Paige Cognetti (PA-08) and Janelle Stelson (PA-10) coming soon

• Hopium House 7 - Our Top House Incumbents Running For Re-election (2026) - $249k raised, $250,000 goal - Donate | Learn More, Volunteer | Watch My Interviews With Our Intrepid Incumbents | Keeping these newly elected Members in Congress is the first step in winning the House in 2026

Expanding The Senate and Electoral College Maps (2026-2032)

• Hopium’s Audacious Expansion Fund - $217,000 raised, $250,000 goal - Join our new campaign to expand our map by investing in the Democratic Parties of Alaska, Florida, Iowa, Maine, and Texas | Donate to all five state parties in a single contribution | Many thanks to two generous Hopium community members who have audaciously donated $10,000 to each of our five state parties!

Defending America, Winning The Big Arguments With Trump - We have three recommended actions today:

1 - Call Your Senators and Member Of The House And Demand They Act Upon Our Five-Part Agenda - We need to be loud people, very, very loud and make the case for our now five part agenda:

1. Stand with Ukraine and our European allies, and far more forcefully challenge Trump’s traitorous efforts to sell out the US and the West to Russia; demand Congress rebuke/issue a no confidence vote on his current efforts to force Ukraine to surrender

2. Congress must stand forcefully for rule of law in the Caribbean - these illegal strikes must end; no war can be waged without Congressional approval; there must accountability for those who have broken the law

3. Roll back Trump’s terrible, illegal tariffs that are re-igniting inflation, driving up prices, shifting the tax burden from the wealthy to working people, hurting small businesses and farmers, reviving tyrannical “taxation without representation,” and alienating governments and people throughout the world

4. Defend our democracy, rule of law, and our liberties by blocking the expansion of ICE; restoring due process for immigrants across the country; vigorously defending the 1st Amendment; warring against his outrageous targeting of his domestic political opponents; ending the use of the military on our streets and the unlawful occupation of our cities; stopping the unprecedented corruption; and by forcing the Administration to finally comply with Congress, end the rancid cover up, and release all of the Epstein files

5. Fight Trump’s war on science, higher education and our public health; reverse - not delay - the cuts to the ACA and Medicaid; support and co-sponsor Rep. Haley Stevens’ effort to Impeach and remove Robert Kennedy

2 - Celebrate America, Our Constitution, Our 250th Birthday By Bringing Our Resolutions Project To Your Community - Next year, on July 4th, America celebrates it’s 250th birthday. We need to make this holiday, a celebration of our Declaration Of Independence from a mad king, our day, and not allow it to become his.

One way we can do this is by bringing our Resolutions Project to your community or state. Imagine if by July 4th of next year a large number of towns, counties and states had passed formal resolutions, in the spirit of our Declaration of Independence, defending our Constitution and condemning the “injuries,” “abuses,” and “usurpations” of our mad king. For as our Founders wrote in the Declaration:

But when a long train of abuses and usurpations, pursuing invariably the same Object evinces a design to reduce them under absolute Despotism, it is their right, it is their duty, to throw off such Government, and to provide new Guards for their future security.

So far Hopium members have introduced or passed resolutions in 85 communities in 23 states. In the coming days we will be convening to discuss how to bring this campaign to more places and start planning to Own The Fourth next year.

Keep working hard all. I am proud, oh so proud, to be in this fight with all of you - Simon

Thank you for your financial support of our wonderful Hopium community. This support allows us to do our work, and keep most of our content free for others to learn from and enjoy.