POLITICO Nightly: How Canada’s election will be won

By Calder McHugh and Catherine Kim Liberal Party of Canada leader Mark Carney waves to supporters outside a Georgetown pub as he leaves a campaign stop on March 31, 2025 in Halton Hills, Ontario, Canada. | Cole Burston/Getty Images CANADIAN COUNTDOWN — On Monday, Canadians will head to the polls to vote in the most consequential national election in decades. Their ballots will dictate who gets to lead the government during a time of unprecedented attacks coming from the president of their closest ally — Donald Trump. For years, it looked like the Liberals would be dead in the water in the next federal election, with Canadians tiring of Trudeau’s leadership and frustrated with rising costs. But now, the party is on the verge of a stunning comeback, not to mention bucking the recent global trend of incumbent parties losing elections. Liberal Party leader and new Prime Minister Mark Carney is also poised to become a painful thorn in Trump’s side, as he has built his entire campaign around being a tough negotiator against the U.S. president — a promise that voters will expect him to deliver. “Once Carney is elected, if that happens, Trump will not have a more seasoned enemy in the West,” Canadian psychologist and anti-woke media star Jordan Peterson said on Joe Rogan’s podcast on Tuesday. Over the course of the five-week federal election, Trump’s provocations have helped Carney reverse the Liberals’ fortune: Trump has slapped a 25 percent tariff on steel and autos, publicly mused about making Canada a “51st state” and mocked the country by saying it would “cease to exist ” without the U.S. Among the 60 percent of Canadians who say that the cost of living and inflation is a top issue, Conservative Party leader Pierre Poilievre has a narrow lead. But Carney dominates the 39 percent of Canadians who consider Canada-U.S. relations a top issue. The Trump threat has managed to unite Canada’s center and left in particular; the further left NDP has seen a huge dropoff in support, to the point where they may lose official party status in the next Parliament, with many of their voters coalescing around the Liberals. Trump isn’t the only animating force in the election, though. Carney has also successfully managed to distance himself from former Liberal Prime Minister Justin Trudeau, according to a poll shared exclusively with POLITICO’s Ottawa Playbook . A plurality of voters, 46 percent, say that Carney “mostly represents something different from Justin Trudeau’s leadership.” But recent polls also provide an inkling of hope for Conservatives: Liberals’ national lead against them has shrunk from an early April average high of 7 percentage points to 4 percentage points among decided voters . Still, Canada’s Conservatives have an inefficient distribution of supporters — the party’s support is highest and most concentrated in some of the least populous areas of the country. It would very likely take more than a four-point polling error to see Poilievre become prime minister. The Conservatives have seen their fortunes slightly improve as Trump has cooled on his attacks against the country and is no longer regularly floating the possibility of new tariffs that could further threaten the economy. As Trump fades more into the background, Conservatives have stuck to their bullet points on housing affordability, cost of living and Liberal failures. The party is counting on the potential of a record turnout, which could work in their favor if the youth vote shows up en masse. Although young people have been loyal to the party — which has made affordability the bedrock of its campaign — they are also historically the least likely to vote. In the 2021 federal election, just 47 percent of voters under 24 voted, a lackluster turnout compared to the 75 percent of voters over 65. David Coletto of the Canadian polling firm Abacus data suggested on X that total turnout on Monday could reach 71 percent , which would be the highest number in a Canadian federal election since 1988. So far, there’s been at least a 25 percent increase in early voting compared to 2021, but experts caution that could also just be a sign that advanced voting is becoming the norm in Canada. Canadian elections are generally decided in the more populous suburbs of major cities close to the American border. Poilievre himself represents one such riding — or electoral district — which makes it worth watching: He won a riding in the Ottawa suburbs called Carleton by three points in 2015 and over 15 in 2021. But while he’s been traversing the vast nation, Poilievre’s Liberal opponent Bruce Fanjoy has hit the pavement in his district. Liberals insist that the party’s internal polling puts him within striking distance of unseating Poilievre altogether. And Carleton saw the highest turnout in all of Canada in early voting ; it will be unclear until Monday who that benefits. Conservatives dismiss the idea that Poilievre has anything to worry about there. But on Sunday, he will take his show back home, closing his campaign with one final rally in Carleton . Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at cmchugh@politico.com and ckim@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh and @ck_525 .   POLITICO IS BACK AT THE 2025 MILKEN GLOBAL CONFERENCE: From May 4–7, California Playbook will deliver exclusive, on-the-ground coverage from the 28th Annual Milken Institute Global Conference. Get behind-the-scenes buzz, standout moments, and insights from leaders in AI, finance, health, philanthropy, geopolitics, and more. Subscribe now for your front-row seat to the conversations shaping our world.     What'd I Miss? ***PUTTING INCOMPETENT CLOWNS IN CHARGE DOES NOT SERVE THE NATION! MARCO RUBIO HAS ALWAYS BEEN A BOOB! DON'T EXPECT A METAMORPHOSIS!  — Trump administration reverses abrupt terminations of foreign students’ US visa registrations: The Trump administration has restored the student visa registrations of thousands of foreign students studying in the United States who had minor — and often dismissed — legal infractions. The Justice Department announced the wholesale reversal in federal court today after weeks of intense scrutiny by courts and dozens of restraining orders issued by judges who deemed the mass termination of students from a federal database — used by universities and the federal government to track foreign students in the U.S. — as flagrantly illegal. excerpt:  The terminations caused concern and even panic for thousands of students who feared the possibility they had lost their legal immigration status and could be quickly deported. Many who sued over the move said their schools had also blocked their ability to continue taking classes or conducting research, sometimes just weeks before graduation. Judges also expressed frustration with the seemingly arbitrary moves and the unwillingness of government lawyers to say whether the students could continue to attend classes or needed to leave the country immediately. The terminations from the federal database earlier this month sparked more than 100 lawsuits, with judges in more than 50 of the cases — spanning at least 23 states — ordering the administration to temporarily undo the actions. Dozens more judges seemed prepared to follow suit before Friday’s reversal. DOJ said that Immigration and Customs Enforcement is working on a new policy regarding foreign students studying in the United States on so-called F-1 visas. Until that policy is issued, no students will have their online student-visa records, known as SEVIS records, terminated “solely based on” criminal history checks that had flagged misdemeanor charges and dismissed cases. It was not immediately clear whether the State Department is reversing a wave of outright cancellation of the visas of many of the same students. A federal official told a judge last week that the agency was performing “quality control” on those decisions. Earlier this year, Secretary of State Marco Rubio canceled the student visas of dozens of foreigners he contends were disrupting U.S. foreign policy through pro-Palestinian activism. However, a more recent, larger wave of visa cancellations appeared to target students who had minor brushes with the law and were also impacted by the termination of their profiles in the SEVIS database. WHACK-A-DING KASH PATEL deleted post:  Dugan was arrested on charges of obstructing or impeding a proceeding before a department or agency of the United States and concealing an individual to prevent his discovery and arrest, according to a criminal complaint filed Thursday. It was not immediately clear why Patel deleted his initial post. Democratic Wisconsin Gov. Tony Evers criticized the Trump administration’s ongoing attacks on judges — without directly defending Dugan — in a public statement released on Friday about the arrest. “I will continue to put my faith in our justice system as this situation plays out in the court of law,” he said. And Sen. Tammy Baldwin (D-Wis.) called the Trump administration’s arrest of Dugan a “gravely serious and drastic move” that “threatens to breach” the government’s separations of power on Friday. “Make no mistake, we do not have kings in this country and we are a democracy governed by laws that everyone must abide by,” Baldwin said in a statement posted to X. “By relentlessly attacking the judicial system, flouting court orders and arresting a sitting judge, this president is putting those basic democratic values that Wisconsinites hold dear on the line.” — Patel says FBI arrests Milwaukee-area judge for obstruction in immigration case: The FBI arrested a Milwaukee County judge today for allegedly helping an undocumented immigrant evade arrest, a remarkable escalation of the administration’s battle with the judiciary. “Just NOW, the FBI arrested Judge Hannah Dugan out of Milwaukee, Wisconsin on charges of obstruction — after evidence of Judge Dugan obstructing an immigration arrest operation last week,” Patel announced on X on this morning before deleting the post. He later reposted an identical version of it. Eduardo Flores Ruiz WAS NOT CONVICTED OF ANY CRIMINAL CHARGE! ****AFGHAN REFUGEES! TRUMP'S FLIP-FLOP INCOMPETENCY SHOWS!***** — Trump administration discussed possible exemptions for some Afghan refugees facing deportation: Trump administration officials have discussed allowing some Afghan refugees to remain in the United States , days after a group of potentially vulnerable migrants from the war-torn country received emails from Customs and Border Protection revoking their humanitarian parole status, according to two administration officials familiar with the conversations. The policy discussions come as prominent Christian leaders and nonprofit organizations have pressed the White House to protect what they say is a group of hundreds of at-risk Christian Afghan refugees — still a fraction of the thousands potentially facing deportation in the months ahead. The leaders argued they could face persecution if returned to Afghanistan, which has reverted to Taliban control after the U.S. withdrawal in 2021 — agreed to by President Donald Trump in his first term and executed by President Joe Biden. ***TRUMP GENUFLECTING TO PUTIN NEEDS TO IMPOSE SANCTIONS ON BFF PUTIN & ARM UKRAINE!**** — Putin is ‘playing America as a patsy,’ Grassley warns Trump: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa) warned President Donald Trump that Russia was “playing America” today, asking him to punish the country for attacking Ukraine amid ceasefire negotiations . Russian President Vladimir Putin earned rare criticism from Trump after launching a deadly attack in Kyiv on Thursday, as Trump amps up pressure on Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy to agree to U.S.-led proposals for a peace deal. Grassley, an ardent supporter of Ukraine, has been one of the loudest voices on the Republican side coming down on Russian aggression against Ukraine. ****TRUMP RECESSION!***** — Consumer expectations crater to three-decade low amid Trump tariff chaos: Just three months into President Donald Trump’s second term, Americans’ confidence in the economy’s prospects is plunging. The University of Michigan’s closely watched index for consumer expectations has dropped by 32 percent since January, the sharpest three-month decline since the U.S. was rocked by a recession in 1990.   Cut through policy complexity and turn intelligence into action with POLITICO’s Policy Intelligence Assistant—a new suite of tools designed to save you time and demonstrate your impact more easily than ever—available only to Pro subscribers. Save hours, uncover critical insights instantly, and stay ahead of the next big shift. Power your strategy today— learn more .     AROUND THE WORLD Investigators work the scene where Lt. Gen. Yaroslav Moskalik, deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate in the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces, was killed by an explosive device placed in his car in Balashikha, Russia on April 25, 2025. | AP CAR BOMB KILLING — A senior Russian military officer was killed in a car explosion today in the Moscow region, Russian authorities confirmed. The victim was identified as Yaroslav Moskalik, 59, deputy head of the Main Operations Directorate of the General Staff of the Russian Armed Forces. “According to available information, the explosion was caused by the detonation of an improvised explosive device containing destructive elements,” Russia’s Investigative Committee said in a statement, adding that it had launched a criminal investigation into the killing. According to the authorities, the explosion occurred at approximately 10:40 a.m. local time in Balashikha, a city just outside Moscow, as Moskalik was passing by a parked Volkswagen Golf near his residence. FIVE MORE YEARS — The Netherlands is rolling back its nitrogen reduction targets, setting the stage for a showdown with its own judges and Brussels over one of Europe’s most contentious environmental issues. The Dutch government confirmed today it will push back its deadline to halve nitrogen emissions from 2030 to 2035 , defying a recent court order and putting its green commitments at risk. The move, spearheaded by Agriculture Minister Femke Wiersma of the Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), is meant to give farmers more time to adapt, but could instead entrench a years-long standoff over how to cut pollution from intensive livestock farming. The decision comes despite a Dutch court ruling in January that ordered the government to meet its existing 2030 deadline to protect sensitive nature areas from nitrogen pollution, most of it from manure, with fertilizer use also contributing. Brussels may also weigh in, as the delay risks breaching the EU’s Habitats Directive, which obliges member states to prevent the deterioration of protected ecosystems and to restore them “within a short period.” BUYING THEM BACK — The U.K. government is in talks with its French counterparts about purchasing back three nuclear sites from state-owned energy giant EDF, as Whitehall looks to take control of the upcoming expansion of nuclear power. U.K. ministers are discussing buying up Bradwell B, Heysham and Hartlepool, a French government official confirmed to POLITICO. “There have been discussions. For the moment, no decision has been taken and discussions are continuing,” the official said. Two senior industry figures based in the U.K., familiar with government planning and granted anonymity to discuss sensitive plans, also said negotiations over the purchase of the three sites were ongoing. Energy Secretary Ed Miliband and French Minister for Industry and Energy Marc Ferracci discussed the negotiations on the margins of the International Energy Agency Summit in London earlier this week, the official added. The account was disputed by the British government, with a post-publication statement from the Department for Energy Security and Net Zero saying: “We categorically do not recognise these claims.” Nightly Number 87 The number of months that former New York Rep. George Santos has been sentenced to prison on fraud and identity theft charges. THE DISEASE AND THE CURE — When the drug Buprenorphine was introduced in France during the country’s opioid epidemic in the 1980s and 90s, overdose deaths fell 79 percent. Addiction specialists raved about the drug’s effectiveness. Yet, 80,000 people still die in the U.S. every year from opioid use. Why? “America’s fractured approach to recovery makes buprenorphine hard to live with, and impossible to live without,” writes Ethan Brooks for The Atlantic. Buprenorphine is an opioid and using it to fight opioid addiction in the states doesn’t pair well with widely-accepted abstinence-based approaches. And the drug is weak at fighting against new synthetic opioids overwhelming the market like fentanyl, which stays in the body longer and triggers a brutal withdrawal when in contact with Buprenorphine. Parting Image On this date in 1989: Students stand with a banner on the roof of the administration building at the City College of New York in Manhattan. Students barricaded themselves inside the building and vowed not to leave until Gov. Mario Cuomo, state legislators and school officials agreed to negotiate with them over planned budget cuts and tuition increases. | Reggie Lewis/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on X Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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