GOOD MORNING, HERE’S WHAT’S HAPPENING: Speaking at a packed rally in Atlanta last night, Barack Obama addressed Cheesecake Factory-gate head on: "I am the father of two daughters. Do you think I could have survived their childhood without going to the Cheesecake Factory? I lived at Chuck E. Cheese and California Pizza Kitchen and the Cheesecake Factory. That was my jam for about a decade." And: "And the Treasury secretary, he happens to be a former hedge fund manager worth half a billion dollars, and he was out there in front of the Cheesecake Factory explaining how he ordered the delicious French dip cheeseburger instead of the egg rolls." KEEP DIGGING: Meanwhile, in Chillicothe, Ohio, yesterday, Donald Trump doubled or maybe even tripled down on defending the infamous Vivek Ramaswamy attack ad. Just quoting the words fails to convey the bilious rage in Trump’s voice as he complained: "The mother said that Amy Acton, the daughter, is a liar, that she’s no good, that she lied about the opponent. How the hell is that [Ramaswamy’s] problem?" BUT THERE’S MORE: It’s not at all clear that Donald Trump’s words were the worst ones spoken in Chillicothe yesterday. Here was Ohio GOP Senator Bernie Moreno on Abdul El-Sayed’s faith: "Do you think he understands that concept, that our rights come from God almighty? That Jesus came here for our salvation?" Article VI, Clause 3 of the Constitution reads in part: "No religious Test shall ever be required as a Qualification to any Office or public Trust under the United States." CAROLINA ON OUR MINDS: Donald Trump returns to South Carolina today to try and shore up Darline Graham one last time. This will be two days after the political world was rocked by a New York Times-Siena poll showing Graham locked in a 48-48 tie with Democrat Annie Andrews in the Senate race. Andrews has been hitting Graham over pro-Graham ads paid for by pro-data center dark money; Graham has ads up asserting—guess what?—that Andrews backs "sex change procedures and cross-sex hormones for minors." ALASKA FALLOUT?: After a New York Times report yesterday that the Senate campaign of Mary Peltola was actively involved in getting that other Dan Sullivan on the ballot, the state’s GOP governor, Mike Dunleavy, has called for an investigation into Peltola’s campaign. Peltola has led—by as much as six points—in every public poll in October. Democrats are scrambling to point out examples of similar acts by the GOP, and it’s true that little tricks like these are neither uncommon nor illegal. But when a story like this breaks a few days before the vote, it’s a test of a campaign’s savvy and steel. SILVER’S LATEST: Nate Silver made some headlines by telling Ezra Klein that a big Democratic wave could mark "the end of the Trump era." He did, however, also note that several Senate races "are all just a normal-sized polling error away from flipping" to Republicans. As of this morning, his Silver Bulletin gives the Dems a 94.7 percent chance of taking the House and a 76.2 percent chance of winning the Senate (with 52 seats, which would be a gain of five). |
This nail-biter House race is all about bogeymen |
New York congressional candidate Cait Conley Adam Gray/Bloomberg via Getty |
Republican Mike Lawler and Democrat Cait Conley are in a dead heat for the race in New York’s 17th congressional district. Lawler is painting Conley as a radical socialist, while Conley is tying Lawler to President Donald Trump and MAGA. Only one of those strategies is rooted in fact, but either could wind up deciding a race that could, in turn, determine what the next Congress looks like. If Lawler wins, it could also set him up for a higher office, experts say. Polls show a tight race, and the Cook Political Report lists the 17th as a "toss-up." The district is one of the most centrist in the country—one of just three, nationwide, that voted for a Republican congressperson while also voting for Vice President Kamala Harris in 2024. The district’s Democratic lean has decreased over time, Lawler is quick to point out: President Joe Biden won it by 10 points in 2020, while Harris won it by less than one point. "There’s not a minute in this campaign that we’ve ever thought that he would be easy to beat," said Jennifer Colamonico, the chair of the Putnam County Democratic Party, about Lawler. In Putnam County, volunteers have knocked on four times the amount of doors than they knocked on in 2024, and Colamonico says that Republicans and independents have been more receptive than they were last cycle. She attributes that in part to Lawler’s association with Trump, who is deeply unpopular in the district and the country. Experts agree that Lawler’s closeness to Trump—the president visited the district in May—could cost him the seat. "Lawler was originally able to wear the mantle of change when he beat the incumbent in 2022, but he now has been in office and is tied to an extremely unpopular president in a district that the president lost," said Laura Tamman, a professor of political science at Pace University. As Conley attempts to tie Lawler to Trump, especially by emphasizing his vote for the One Big Beautiful Bill Act, Lawler and his allies have tried to tie Conley to New York City Mayor Zohran Mamdani and the Democratic Socialists of America (DSA). "There’s not a ton of evidence that Cait Conley, who served in the military and in the Biden administration, is super tight with Mamdani," said Tamman. "Like, she’s not in the same city. She shares the same party, but she doesn’t have Mamdani out campaigning for her." The fact that neither Conley’s platform nor her past fit with the radical socialist attack makes no difference, Colamonico explained. "It doesn’t matter who we run," she said. "They were going to come at us as being socialists and aligned with DSA and Mamdani." This narrative about Conley being a secret socialist has been boosted by money from Elon Musk’s super PAC, America PAC. Through that group, Musk has spent more than half a million dollars to boost Lawler. Colamonico has seen the influence of that money firsthand, describing floods of mailers that call Conley a socialist and canvassers dropping off door hangers with the same message. While the narrative about Conley appears to be baseless, it could hurt her with the district’s Jewish population, experts said. Some of those voters are frustrated with the DSA’s position on Israel and could be inclined to vote for Lawler because of it, despite the fact that Conley doesn’t share the DSA’s positions on Israel. In Rockland County, specifically, there’s a large Orthodox Jewish population that experts say Lawler needs to back him. "It would be very difficult for him to win without them showing up enthusiastically for him," Tamman said. Despite the unfavorable environment for Republicans, Lawler could still pull off a win. If he does, then it could have even bigger implications in 2028 or beyond. "If Mike Lawler does survive this year, I think you’ll have a lot of talk of him being a statewide candidate in the future," said Shawn Donahue, a professor of political science at the University at Buffalo who pointed to the potential for Lawler to run for Senator Chuck Schumer’s seat. Tamman suggested that he could seek the governorship. House Speaker Mike Johnson may have said it best on Tuesday while campaigning in the district with Lawler: "Everybody around America is watching this election. Everybody." |
Sophie Jager profiles a handful of people who show up at Trump rallies to heckle him—and risk injury in doing so … Alex Shephard notes that while Dems in Congress may not have much taste for impeachment, the base feels otherwise … Adam Elder pries open the curtain to examine Trump’s weirdly and somewhat ominously named Energy Dominance Council. |
Another thing potentially hinging on the outcome of next week’s elections: whether fire survivors will be able to rebuild their homes. CalMatters’s Levi Sumagaysay this week reports on the status of survivors of the Los Angeles fires, an estimated 28 percent of whom have run out of so-called displacement coverage. Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) funding for renters ran out on October 9, and the Trump administration so far hasn’t supported further FEMA funds being directed to California. "People are wondering if they have to live out of their cars and pull their kids out of school," Altadena Tenants Union co-founder Katie Clark tells Sumagaysay. Democratic Representatives Norma Torres and Judy Chu tell Sumagaysay they’re hoping that if Democrats win big in the midterms, a newly Democratic House could help get money moving. The Guardian’s Oliver Milman talks to residents of Southaven, Mississippi, who say that Elon Musk’s AI company xAI, which is currently constructing a massive data center complex with an on-site power plant, has offered to buy their homes "as the owners agree to not join a lawsuit against the company over the power plant’s noise." Come for the window into data center politics, stay for the spicy quotes from a paramedic, a piano teacher, and other residents who are more or less telling the company to take their offer and shove it. |
On Thursday at 1 p.m., the Urban Institute will host a "virtual workshop exploring how local leaders can foster dignity and belonging in their communities—and why these conditions are essential to advancing upward mobility." Speakers will include the institute’s Myriam Hernandez Jennings and Isabella Remor, as well as Ricki Ellison of the Greater Wichita Partnership and Marshall Ogier of Seeding Success. On Thursday at 3 p.m., the Brookings Institution and the American Enterprise Institute (AEI) will co-host an event on how to modernize the Current Population Survey (CPS), which is the basis for calculating the unemployment rate. One possible reform to be discussed: a way to add an online component instead of relying on in-person and phone interviews, which are increasingly struggling with non-response rates. Speakers will include the Census Bureau’s CPS Director Kyra Linse, Nicholas Johnson from the Bureau of Labor Statistics, Tom Evans from the U.K.’s Office for National Statistics, New York Fed economic research advisor Wilbert van der Klaauw, Michigan Federal Statistical Research Data Center co-director Joelle Abramowitz, OpenAI economics researcher Alex Martin Richmond, University of Maryland professor Katharine Abraham, and Georgetown University professor Diane Whitmore Schanzenbach. Brookings’s David S. Johnson and John Sabelhaus and AEI’s Michael R. Strain will moderate. |
Why aren’t people talking about this new rape allegation? |
TNR’s Edie Olmsted reviews the troubling allegation in House Dems’ new report: former Miss Switzerland Beatrice Keul saying Donald Trump raped her in 1993 when she was a contestant at his American Dream Pageant in New York. |
POLITICAL TRIVIA QUESTION OF THE DAY |
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Though it’s been Republican for many years now, when Alaska became a state in 1959, its first two senators were both Democrats. The name of one is mostly lost to history. The other, however, made a name for himself as an early and vocal opponent of the Vietnam War and was one of only two Democrats to vote against the Gulf of Tonkin Resolution, which the Johnson administration pushed to authorize U.S. intervention. Can you name either man? |
Last Friday’s question:
Q: What state has had the most female governors?
A: Arizona, with five. Including four of the last five!
Quasi-correction: He wasn’t an answer to a question and was just mentioned in passing, but we did mistakenly refer to President William McKinley as James McKinley yesterday. We thank the readers who wrote in to correct us. |
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