CASCADING DOMINOES — Nancy Pelosi’s future has been the subject of whispers in her hometown of San Francisco since the Democrats lost the House and she stepped down from leadership. What everyone has wanted to know — but no one was eager to say out loud, for fear of offending the still influential speaker emerita or merely out of respect and admiration for her — is whether she intends to keep her seat. And, if not, would she favor a chosen candidate — or throw it open to what could be a wide open primary in one of the most Democratic cities in the U.S. At stake is not just the once-in-a-generation chance to be San Francisco’s sole representative in Congress — a post Pelosi has held for close to 40 years. Her retirement, and the jockeying it would set off could reshape California and Bay Area politics, likely creating open races for state Senate, Assembly and the San Francisco Board of Supervisors. Pelosi has been mum about her plans, and the evidence that has emerged so far is contradictory.The congresswoman has raised $3.5 million in the first six months of the year between her campaign and political action committees, a haul that suggests she could run for reelection in November 2024 if she wanted. At a minimum, it shows she still has clout, which could be one reason she has decided to leave people guessing. At least three scenarios could play out in the coming months. One of the nation’s most prolific fundraisers, Pelosi could stick around for one more term to help Democrats raise money to fend off former President Donald Trump — assuming he’s the Republican nominee in 2024. She has helped lead the party through rocky times before, including to defend the Affordable Care Act and to impeach Trump twice. Pelosi must file her declaration of candidacy to seek reelection by Dec. 8, though she would likely announce much sooner given the party has a fall nomination deadline. She could run to help the party through the 2024 election, only to resign later and trigger a special election. Another option would be to announce her departure sooner than later — before the party’s nominating process closes to applicants this fall. This timeline would have the least disruption on the traditional election calendar. But the window for Pelosi to clear the way is getting narrower and narrower since the nominating process formally opens in mid-August. Then there’s the prospect of a last-minute decision — a not-uncommon gambit among members of Congress with an interest in dictating their successor: Call it the total chaos scenario. Pelosi waits until the final minute to decide she won’t run. If she, as the incumbent, doesn’t file to seek reelection by Dec. 8, the filing deadline would be extended by five days. Waiting that late could limit the number of potential successor candidates and trigger a special party nominating conference. All of this is why ambitious would-be candidates and consultants in San Francisco are anxiously awaiting her decision. But if any camps are growing frustrated, nobody is sharing it publicly. (Julia cut this second line for the version that’s on the HP now. What do you think? I’m fine losing it.) “The rules of engagement for the average politician just do not apply to Nancy Pelosi,” said Todd David, a close friend and adviser of state Sen. Scott Wiener, a candidate to succeed Pelosi. “She has earned the right and the privilege to do things on her own timeline.” Wiener formed an exploratory committee to run for the seat in March, though he stresses that he will only run if Pelosi retires and has showered the speaker emerita with praise. His exploratory committee said he’s raised $820,000, a formidable haul for a campaign that hasn’t officially started. Two other major candidates could also be in the mix: Christine Pelosi, a longtime party organizer and the former speaker’s daughter, and Jane Kim, a former supervisor and California director of the ultra-progressive Working Families Party. The younger Pelosi hasn’t said anything publicly about her intentions, and Kim will say only that she hasn’t ruled out a run. From there, cue the musical chairs. The cascading dominoes could trigger open contests from the statehouse to San Francisco City Hall. The mix of possible contenders reads like a short list of ambitious San Francisco politicians. Their campaigns could prompt a heated debate about the city’s response to the parallel homelessness and addiction crises. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at dgardiner@politico.com or on Twitter at @dustingardiner .
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