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“DeSANTIS IN DISARRAY? — This morning, with FEC filings in hand, one thing is clear: Serious doubts now cloud the future of RON DeSANTIS’s presidential campaign.
1. ‘SOLVENCY’: If that’s in the lede of an article, good news is almost certain not to follow. And yet, there it was in an NBC piece that blew up group chats all over D.C. shortly after being published last night:
“‘DeSantis tapped out top donors and burned through $7.9 million in his first six weeks as a presidential candidate, according to an NBC News analysis of his new campaign finance disclosure,’ wrote Jonathan Allen, Bridget Bowman, Ben Kamisar and Alexandra Marquez. ‘The numbers suggest, for the first time, that solvency could be a threat to DeSantis’s campaign, which has touted its fundraising ability as a key measure of viability.’
“Those numbers, in brief:
“DeSantis raised $20.1 million between mid-May and the end of June. About $3 million of that can only be used in the general election — making it irrelevant to his fight against DONALD TRUMP.
Of that $20.1 million, more than two-thirds came from donors who are now maxed out and can’t give him any more money.
About 40% of the money DeSantis raised has already been spent. A decent chunk of that went to payroll: Notably, DeSantis had 92 people on his campaign staff — ‘by far the biggest staff footprint of the GOP presidential candidates,’ NBC notes. Which brings us to number two …
2. ‘SHEDDING STAFF’ and ‘CASH CRUNCH’: ‘DeSantis’ presidential campaign is shedding staff as it navigates a cash crunch and looks to refocus resources on Iowa,’ Alex Isenstadt scooped last night.
“Fewer than 10 staffers were let go by the Florida governor’s campaign Thursday … Each of the aides was involved in event planning, and some of them may soon wind up at an allied outside group. ‘Never Back Down,’ the pro-DeSantis super PAC, has received resumes from staffers who’ve been let go.”
3. ‘SKEPTICISM’ and ‘PRIVATE CONCERNS’ and ‘INSULARITY’: ‘More than seven weeks in, skepticism about the Florida governor’s 2024 bid has grown,’ report WaPo’s Hannah Knowles, Josh Dawsey, Michael Scherer and Marianne LeVine. Some people who have advised and supported DeSantis have raised private concerns about his message, and the effectiveness and insularity of his campaign operation, according to people familiar with the comments, among the more than 30 people interviewed for this story.
“The doubts extend to long-friendly Fox News … and its owner, the conservative media magnate RUPERT MURDOCH, according to another person who speaks regularly with Murdoch about the presidential race. ‘He was excited about him at the beginning, but the more he shows himself, the less appealing he is,’ said this person, who, like others, spoke on the condition of anonymity to describe private deliberations and talk more freely. Murdoch will ‘come back to Trump if he thinks Trump can win,’ this person added. A representative for Murdoch declined to comment Saturday.”
“How is the DeSantis camp shifting in response? ‘The campaign has started rolling out national policy — economic issues next, then foreign policy in August — and plans to do more mainstream media interviews around those proposals,’ the Post reports.
“Those lines caught the eye of Bill Scher, the savvy politics editor at Washington Monthly: ‘Lordy, the ELIZABETH WARREN white paper strategy is not going to help,’Scher tweeted. ‘Team DeSantis refuses to see the race for what it is. The race is not about who has the best tax plan. The race is: Trump, yes or no.’
“One sign the DeSantis media pivot is underway: CNN just announced that on Tuesday the Florida governor will sit down with JAKE TAPPER for an interview in South Carolina.
“WHAT IT ALL ADDS UP TO: The ‘DeSantis in decline’ storyline is a body blow to one of the central arguments for his campaign: That he’d be a competent, disciplined version of Trump. Trump without the chaos. Trump, but with a more professional operation.
“That’s an easier sell when things are going well: People on the team are generally satisfied, and there’s no need to point fingers.
“But things are not going well for DeSantis. At the start of the year, the average national GOP primary poll had Trump at 43% and DeSantis close behind at 37%, according to FiveThirtyEight. Compare that to today: Trump averages just under 50%, while DeSantis has sunk to 21%. Since DeSantis announced his campaign on May 24, he has gained just 0.4 percentage points in the national polling average.
“This is not just an issue of financial solvency. It’s an issue of strategy.
“A negative narrative is taking hold about his campaign — that it is bloated, is overconfident, lacks a clear strategy, etc. Pair that with preexisting negative impressions about the candidate himself (that he is combative, not personable, awkward in retail settings, etc.) and a press corps that is — let’s be honest — somewhat tired of Trump and remains fascinated by the Florida governor, and there are real hurdles ahead for DeSantis.
“The good news for him, if we can call it that, is that narratives can change, and the six months between now and the Iowa caucuses provide ample time to turn things around. But that’s also a whole lot of time for new articles to be published about him and his campaign — and they may contain phrases altogether more damning than ‘cash crunch’ and ‘private concerns.’”
— Politico Playbook Blog, 7/16/2023. Capitalization in original.
