Hegseth’s First Loyalty Test The Trump Administration’s War on the Free Press Alexander Vindman Oct 16 One America News Network (OANN) now stands alone in the Pentagon press pool, a hollowed-out remnant of what used to be a free and independent press corps. OANN, long the MAGA movement’s propaganda arm and chief apologist for Trumpism, was the only outlet willing to grovel before Pete Hegseth’s latest diktats. Once a Fox News personality known for empty bluster and televised grievance, Hegseth has now imported the worst instincts of right-wing infotainment into the Department of Defense where censorship and loyalty oaths have replaced transparency and accountability. In response to critical coverage of his chaotic tenure as Secretary of Defense, Hegseth has rammed through a set of so-called “common-sense” guidelines that amount to an all-out assault on the First Amendment. Every story involving the Pentagon must now be pre-approved by Hegseth’s office. This includes not just reporting on potentially classified material, but any reporting on defense or national security. Journalists are forbidden from moving unescorted through the building, and even a simple request for comment can be deemed “a threat to national security” and grounds for blacklisting. It is less a media policy than a loyalty purge and an attempt to stamp out dissent, conceal incompetence, and shield Hegseth from the scrutiny he so clearly fears. This is not “common sense.” It is cowardice cloaked in patriotism and the reflex of a man allergic to criticism and desperate to project control. Even Fox News, Hegseth’s old employer and one of the administration’s most reliable allies, balked at his ultimatum and refused to comply. When Fox News won’t follow your orders, you’ve gone well past the bounds of normal Republican sycophancy and straight into strongman territory. What Hegseth calls “orderly communication” is, in truth, the first step in dismantling the free press, a move straight from the autocrat’s playbook. These policies mirror those of Russia and China, where “national security” is the universal excuse for silencing the truth. Make no mistake: this is Trump’s loyalty test for the American media and Hegseth is the enforcer. The intent is obvious: to transform a free press into a compliant press, and to turn journalists into stenographers for power. The United States was founded on the premise that no man - not even the president, not even his handpicked propagandists - stands above public scrutiny. Attempts to muzzle the press and to bend it to the will of the executive are an affront to every American who still believes in democracy. The First Amendment was written precisely for moments like this: to defend truth from power and protect the public from those who would prefer they remain blind. I applaud the media organizations that have refused to submit to these gag orders. The Pentagon is not the property of the Trump administration, and journalism is not a crime. Hegseth’s attempt to smother the truth will be short lived, and reversed under his own or a successor’s stewardship. But it is a reminder - loud and clear - that the battle for America’s freedom of the press has come home. Why It Matters is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

 

Shutdown How the Trump Administration Weaponizes the Federal Government Shutdown Alexander Vindman Oct 6 Dear readers, As of this past Wednesday, the federal government has officially shut down. Thousands of workers have been furloughed, countless departments have suspended operations, and many crucial civil servants must now work without pay for an indefinite period. While this isn’t the first federal shutdown caused by a budget impasse (a 35-day shutdown, the longest in American history, occurred from late 2018 to early 2019 during Trump’s first term) the current economic and political conditions make this a uniquely concerning development. The root cause of this shutdown is the GOP’s refusal to roll back cuts to Medicaid or extend health-insurance subsidies under the Affordable Care Act. Republicans have no issue approving tax cuts for the billionaire class or funding Trump’s personal paramilitary, but they balk at helping ordinary Americans access health care or feeding impoverished children through SNAP. This is not only morally indefensible but also inconsistent with the supposed “small-government” principles the Republican Party once claimed to uphold. It sends a clear message that the suffering of ordinary Americans is an acceptable price for congressional Republicans seeking Donald Trump’s approval. Good luck with the midterms, Republicans - you’re going to need it. One factor distinguishing this shutdown from earlier ones is the Trump administration’s willingness to use federal agencies and their communication platforms to blame Democrats for the crisis. The landing pages of several government websites have made references to “the radical left” and Democrats being the cause of the shutdown. Some furloughed employees report that their automatic email replies attribute their absence to a supposed “Democrat-led” shutdown. Beyond being blatantly false, such messaging likely violates the Hatch Act, which prohibits federal agencies and employees from engaging in partisan political activity. That law exists to ensure the civil service and the military remain nonpartisan. This misuse of government communications sets a dangerous precedent: what if federal agencies began endorsing candidates, or branches of the military adopted political affiliations? Given how this administration has handled the shutdown, those scenarios no longer seem far-fetched. A second distinguishing factor is the administration’s apparent intention to use the funding dispute to eliminate so-called “Democrat Agencies” from the budget. It’s unclear what falls into that category, but Trump and his allies are likely to target discretionary spending and public-assistance programs, labeling them “woke” or part of “DEI.” Trump has already floated the idea of bringing in figures associated with Project 2025 to review programs for potential cuts. Elon Musk’s “Department of Government Efficiency” - a now-defunct initiative that accidentally eliminated crucial funding streams and potentially exposed millions of Americans’ personal data - may be involved in this effort. These cuts, if implemented amid a looming recession, would only deepen unemployment and economic instability. Every negotiation involves both carrots and sticks. In budget talks, temporary extensions are common to provide time for compromise. Today, however, we see no carrots: only sticks. The GOP has declared the reversal of Medicare cuts a non-starter, while the Trump administration threatens punitive reductions across the board. Regardless of the outcome, Trump and his allies will try to blame Democrats. Yet polling shows that most Americans hold Republicans, who currently control both the White House and Congress, responsible for the shutdown. Although the midterms are still more than a year away, this episode will add to the growing list of Republican failures. We’ll see how that plays out in next month’s Virginia gubernatorial race, especially considering northern Virginia has been hit hard by DOGE layoffs and the shutdown. I hope Democrats hold firm until the GOP buckles and that at least some of the cuts are restored in the final budget. Now that we can clearly see the MAGA vision for America, our task is to channel that understanding into a decisive victory in the midterm elections. Why It Matters is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.

ICYMI: Today in Politics, Bulletin 189. 8/18/25

Today in Politics, Bulletin 189. 8/18/25 Ron Filipkowski Aug 18 ∙ … Trump was caught on a hot mic telling European leaders today after his meeting with Zelensky that Putin might agree to a peace deal with Ukraine just to help him out and do him a personal favor so he can look good: "I think he wants to make a deal for me. Do you understand? As crazy as it sounds." … Present at the meeting today at WH: UK PM Keir Starmer, Italian PM Giorgia Meloni, German Chancellor Friedrich Merz, Finnish President Alexander Stubb, French President Emmanuel Macron, NATO Sec-Gen Mark Rutte, EU President Ursula von der Leyen. … When Trump met face-to-face with Zelensky before the cameras, he was very low energy and accommodating, trying to save face after his disaster in Alaska with Putin by claiming that he just wants peace and the war to end and he will do everything possible to help Ukraine. No specifics were announced, no deals or agreements, just more of the same nonsensical whining about how unfair it is that he doesn’t get any credit from the world or the press for his skills as a negotiator. … Former Air Force officer Jake Broe gave his theory on why Trump was so subdued in this meeting: “Zelensky is a genius. He started his one-on-one meeting with Trump by thanking Melania Trump for sending Putin a letter asking for Ukraine's children to be returned. Zelensky then gave trump a letter for his wife from the First Lady of Ukraine. Trump was pretty mild after that.” … European political analyst Aleksandar Djokic: “My impression from the Trump-Zelensky meeting is that all Zelensky has to do is never say a direct ‘no’ to Trump, because Putin will not agree on strong Western security guarantees to Ukraine or a trilateral meeting that will actually resemble negotiations. So far it hasn't gone awry. It's more theater than a historical meeting, but no catastrophe has occurred, and it doesn't look like Trump will blame Ukraine straight away.” … Djokic: “The feeling is he'll go after Russia for a spell. Zelensky said he'll discuss the territorial issues on the meeting with Putin, which is an excellent ploy because Putin will not agree to meet with Zelensky if every point is not decided in advance. Europeans keep talking about a ceasefire. Trump keeps wishing for a trilateral meeting. An amicable cacophony.” … Rep. Marge Greene’s boyfriend Brian Glenn, who went after Zelensky at the last meeting because he wasn’t wearing a suit, complimented Zelensky for wearing a suit jacket this time (but no tie). Zelensky replied: “And you’re still wearing the same suit as last time. I changed, you didn’t.” … Greene lamely tried to defend Glenn on X after he got owned by Zelensky: “I’d like to recognize Brian Glenn for his success in upholding the proper WH wardrobe attire. If Brian had never asked Zelensky the question, ‘why don’t you wear a suit, do you own a suit?’ I’m not sure he would have ever worn one to visit our great and respected President!!” … Foreign affairs journalist Olga Nesterova: “Both Trump and Zelensky were on their best behavior. If you listen carefully, Trump delivered all Russian standpoints. Fox confirms WH message that ‘Trump will make a case for land swap, but it’s up to Ukrainian people to accept it. Plus no NATO.’ So Ukraine will be blamed (if there is no deal). NOTHING IS NEW.” … After the meeting with Zelensky when Trump met with the rest of the European leaders, he seemed must less enthused about this meeting, which he clearly didn’t want. He led off by commenting that Putin should be included in the next meeting. … German Chancellor Merz suggested that there should be a precondition to Putin’s involvement : "I can't imagine that the next meeting would take place without a ceasefire. So let's work on that and let's try to put pressure on Russia because the credibility of these efforts we are undertaking today depends on at least a ceasefire from the beginning of the serious negotiations." … Trump then said he disagreed and a ceasefire was not necessary before the next meeting with Putin. … President Macron: When we speak about security guarantees, we speak about the whole security of the European continent and this is why we are all united here with Ukraine on this matter. You can be sure that Europeans are very lucid about the fact that they have their fair share in the security guarantees for Ukraine, but their own security is clearly at stake in this situation.” … After everything was over, Trump posted this on Truth Social: “At the conclusion of the meeting, I called President Putin and began arrangements for a meeting between Putin and President Zelensky.” … But before all that started, Trump this morning launched his illegal plan to try to take over elections from the states by executive order after Putin told him mail-in ballots result in fraud: “I am going to lead a movement to get rid of MAIL-IN BALLOTS, and also, while we’re at it, Highly ‘Inaccurate,’ Very Expensive, and Seriously Controversial VOTING MACHINES, which cost Ten Times more than accurate and sophisticated Watermark Paper, which is faster, and leaves NO DOUBT, at the end of the evening, as to who WON, and who LOST, the Election. We are now the only Country in the World that uses Mail-In Voting. All others gave it up because of the MASSIVE VOTER FRAUD ENCOUNTERED.” … There are many countries, including Russia, that use mail-in ballots. … Trump continued: “WE WILL BEGIN THIS EFFORT, WHICH WILL BE STRONGLY OPPOSED BY THE DEMOCRATS BECAUSE THEY CHEAT AT LEVELS NEVER SEEN BEFORE, by signing an EXECUTIVE ORDER to help bring HONESTY to the 2026 Midterm Elections. Remember, the States are merely an “agent” for the Federal Government in counting and tabulating the votes. They must do what the Federal Government, as represented by the President, tells them, FOR THE GOOD OF OUR COUNTRY, to do. THE MAIL-IN BALLOT HOAX, USING VOTING MACHINES THAT ARE A COMPLETE AND TOTAL DISASTER, MUST END, NOW!!!” … Alexander Vindman: “This is a perfect example of an effective influence campaign. After a meeting with Putin, where Putin questioned the legitimacy of mail-in ballots, Trump launches a campaign to end mail-in. I don’t think many people understand how easy it is to puppeteer Trump.” … Former VA Rep. Barbara Comstock: “Putin plays Trump for the dope he is and Trump repeated false Putin talking points about mail in ballots. Trump’s staff also apparently sat there ignorant of Russia and mail in ballot policy and didn’t correct Putin or inform their boss before he embarrassed himself by repeating falsehoods. This is what happens when you remove experts and allow Putin to ride in the car alone with an easy mark.” … Trump also blamed Zelensky for the war again in an early post, although he didn’t do that later to his face: “President Zelenskyy of Ukraine can end the war with Russia almost immediately, if he wants to, or he can continue to fight. Remember how it started. No getting back Obama given Crimea (12 years ago, without a shot being fired!), and NO GOING INTO NATO BY UKRAINE.” … “I’ve settled 6 Wars in 6 months, one of them a possible Nuclear disaster, and yet I have to read & listen to the WSJ, and many other who truly don’t have a clue, tell me everything that I am doing wrong on the Russia/Ukraine MESS, that is Sleepy Joe Biden’s war, not mine. I know exactly what I’m doing, and I don’t need the advice of people who have been working on all of these conflicts for years, and were never able to do a thing to stop them. They are ‘STUPID’ people, with no common sense, intelligence, or understanding, and they only make the current R/U disaster more difficult to FIX.” … WSJ’s Yaroslav Trofimov addressed reports that the Trump admin will insist that Ukraine agree to Putin’s demand that it surrender 3 territories to Russia: “On the subject of mighty Russia allegedly winning the war: ever since the Ukrainian counteroffensives stalled in Nov. 2022, Russia managed to seize a total of 0.97% of additional Ukrainian territory, losing several hundred thousand soldiers in the process. To put things in perspective, the northern Donbas that Ukraine is being asked to gift to Russia is a larger territory.” … Statement from the UK Ministry of Defence: “Based on the rate of Russia’s incremental battlefield advances so far in 2025, it would take Russian forces approximately 4.4 more years to gain 100% of the 4 Ukrainian territories. Based on the average daily casualty rate, this would lead to approximately 1.93 million further Russian casualties.” … Gavin Newsom’s new strategy mocking Trump’s crazed posts on Truth Social, where he frequently posts a series of unhinged memes from QAnon accounts that worship him as the new messiah, has been a huge hit. For years I have argued that the only way to deal with these people is to publicly mock and ridicule them, and this has been a brilliant way to do it. MAGA has alternated between not understanding the joke or raging about how obnoxious Newsom is with the posts. … CNN: “Newsom’s press office’s social media account has become a multi-aide operation itself and shifted to a Trump-aping full-time troll, complete with schoolyard nicknames and ‘THANK YOU FOR YOUR ATTENTION TO THIS MATTER!’ sign-offs. Asked last week by a reporter to defend the tone he’s adopted online, Newsom said, ‘If you have issues with what I’m putting out, you sure as hell should have concerns with what he’s putting out as president.’” … Even after several days, Rep. Tim Burchett (R-TN) still hasn’t been able to figure out this is a troll operation designed to make Trump look ridiculous and his most loyal followers look like brain-dead cultists. … Mississippi Gov. Tate Reeves announced today that he was sending MS National Guard troops to DC to join troops already there from South Carolina, Ohio, and West Virginia. … WUSA9: “DC restaurants saw a more than 25% drop in diners in the days following Trump’s takeover of the city’s police dept. On Mon, the day Trump announced he would invoke the DC Home Rule Act and federalize the city’s police dept for the first time in history, online reservations dropped by 16% compared to the same date in 2024. On Tues reservations were down 27%. On Wed they were down 31%.” … “The city now stands nearly alone among the largest 20 US cities tracked by OpenTable in having a drop in Aug dining reservations compared to last year. Only Las Vegas, which has seen its own economy buffeted by Trump’s immigration and trade policies, has seen fewer diners this month than Aug 2024.” … DC independent journalist Anarchy Princess has chronicled the response around town: “DC is a ghost town tonight. Empty busses and trains. Even metro center was nearly empty. All the usual bar areas dead. Not really any Feds around tonight. Just MPD. The National Mall was a ghost town earlier too and that place should be packed on a weekend.” … DC US Attorney and former Fox host Jeanine Pirro was on Fox this morning talking about DC residents protesting the federal military invasion: "They should kiss the ground at this point that you've got someone who wants to make this city safe again." … Sen. Tommy Tuberville (R-AL): “For too long, our capital has been a WARZONE.” … WaPo: “The Republican Party of FL was pushing a new line of merchandise Friday: baseball caps, T-shirts, mugs and insulating drink sleeves with ‘THE DEPORT DEPOT’ in blocky stencil font diagonally across a bright orange square. Two days later, after Home Depot expressed concern about the unapproved use of its branding, the items had been scrubbed from the Florida GOP’s digital storefront and posts on X about the new line had been deleted.“ … Home Depot’s Beth Marlowe issued a statement: “We don’t allow any organization to use our branding or logo for their commercial purposes, and we did not approve this use.” First Bulletin back after my first week off in long time and it was totally unplugged and offline. We loved Quebec - the people and the culture. Stayed in Levis first day and took ferry across river to Q City for dinner. Then continued to the small villages in the Gaspe Peninsula. Took 2 hour car ferry across the St. Lawrence for whale watching in Tadoussac - saw 10-12 whales in the Saguenay Fjord. Went to Lac St. Jean to take a cheese and butter making class. Ended the week on top of a mountain near Lac Beauport and went on a 12-mile whitewater kayaking trip down Riviere Jacques Cartier. Our first trip with no guide and I ended up in the river twice, which gave me even more respect for guides. My last vacation for a long time and we got the most out of it. It was also great to unplug from the US - we only ran into one American couple the entire time and they were from northern Vermont. The first thing I saw when I got back and opened X was a meme of Gavin Newsom’s face on Mt. Rushmore, so I knew that politics in America was still not going to be boring while I was away. Next Bulletin tomorrow! Meidas+ is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. … MAGA was melting down on social media over the NFL’s Minnesota Vikings adding a male cheerleader. Rep. Clay Higgins (R-LA): “I don’t think the NFL actually wants conservatives to watch their football games. And I must say if that’s the NFL business model, they’re doing very, very well.” … They have been doing well. Despite the fact that this is something like the 126th MAGA boycott of the league since Colin Kaepernick took a knee during the anthem in 2016. … The Vikings issued a statement: “While many fans may be seeing male cheerleaders for the first time at Vikings games, male cheerleaders have been part of previous Vikings teams and have long been associated with collegiate and professional cheerleading.” The Vikings also told Daily Beast that despite claims by many that they are canceling their season tickets, not one fan has done so yet. … WSJ reported on ICE’s new push to hire massive amounts of new personnel to become the largest law enforcement organization on the planet: “The fed govt offered hefty incentives: up to $50,000 in signing bonuses and up to $60,000 in student loan forgiveness. No undergraduate degree is required. DHS also lifted the age cap for law-enforcement roles, opening a deportation officer position specifically for people over 40.” … “ICE highlights three potential career paths on its recruitment website: deportation officer (“the enforcers”), criminal investigator (“the protectors”) and general attorney (“the closers”). Deportation officers can expect to make between $49,739-101,860 a year. The range for criminal investigators runs between $63,148-144,031.” … WSJ: “Rob Sand could almost pass for a Republican: He frequently quotes the Bible, owns two SIG Sauer handguns, goes deer hunting each fall and asks audiences to sing a few verses of ‘America the Beautiful’ at the start of campaign events. The only Democrat elected to statewide office in Iowa, Sand is trying to jump to the governor’s mansion from his current state auditor post. In the process, he is offering a potential template for others in his party on how to compete in red-state America.” … IA Christian conservative leader Bob Vander Plaats recently warned Republicans that Sand is a ‘very real opponent’ to be taken seriously. ‘Churchgoer, gun-toter, state auditor, taxpayers’ watchdog. Sounds a little bit like us, right?’ Vander Plaats said, adding that Sand will have plenty of money behind him, in part, because of his wealthy wife and in-laws.” … Sand on the campaign trail: “Jesus is for the little guy. Jesus is for the outcast. And the Democratic Party is for the little guy.” … “The nonpartisan Cook Political Report moved the contest from ‘solid Republican’ to ‘lean Republican’ when Sand entered the race, a rare two-category move. It called the Democratic front-runner ‘easily the strongest contender his party could have recruited.’” … Rep. Mary Miller (R-IL) claimed that her state is really majority Republican based on the fact that more counties voted Republican than Democrat, despite the fact that there are more corn fields than people in most of them. … Miller’s post on X was hit with a fact-check Community Note: “The blue area to the northeast is the Chicago metropolitan area, whose population is about 9.5 million people. The population of the entire state of IL is about 12.5 million people, which means the blue area contains approximately 3/4 of the state's population.” … Trump’s former Surgeon Gen Jerome Adams was interviewed on our new show Meidas Health: There are a lot of people involved in the current admin who criticize pharma and traditional medicine, but have no problem promoting ivermectin, hydroxychloroquine, glucose monitors for everybody, and supplements. So it’s a little disingenuous to say you shouldn’t trust them — but then say you should trust us, even though we profited off these unvalidated remedies that we’re promoting on our websites right now.” … MSNBC announced it is changing its name to My Source News Opinion World, or ‘MS NOW’ as it spins off from NBC Universal. They even launched a new logo. … NBC: “Former Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), launched a comeback campaign Monday, setting the stage for a 2026 special election that could decide partisan control of the Senate. Brown will challenge Sen. Jon Husted, the Republican whom Gov. Mike DeWine appointed this year to fill the vacancy created by JD Vance’s election as VP.” … Brown to Meidas: “In a state of 12 million people, half a million are going to lose their insurance. And these are mostly working families whose employers don’t provide insurance - or kids, or seniors, or disabled people. Those are the people losing their health insurance. People didn’t vote for that. They didn’t vote for drug prices to go up. They didn’t vote for higher grocery bills. They didn’t vote for veterans’ benefits being slashed. They didn’t vote for any of this. It’s why I’m back in the arena making this fight - because there’s nobody speaking up for OH workers in the US Senate.” … Axios: “MI Gov. Gretchen Whitmer is taking a gamble that other potential 2028 Democratic presidential contenders are not: that party voters might reward her - or at least not punish her - for working with Trump. Whitmer's approach is a sharp break from other prominent Dems such as CA Gov. Gavin Newsom and IL Gov. JB Pritzker, who are defining themselves as anti-Trump warriors. Whitmer has visited the WH 3 times this year - most recently this month, when she met with Trump to discuss tariffs, Medicaid funding and northern MI's recovery efforts from a spring ice storm.” … “If Whitmer runs in the 2028 Democratic presidential primary, it would test whether Dem voters want party figures to oppose Trump at every turn - or show some willingness to work with him on issues on which they agree. Whitmer's team argues that voters are eager for collaboration, and points to polling indicating that 54% of Dems in MI approve of her approach toward Trump.” … Whitmer adviser John Anzalone: "The things she is working with the admin on are good for the state. She is about getting shit done. That is her ideology. And she is succeeding in that.” … MI AG Dana Nessel disagrees: "Appeasement is not workable strategy with a fascist." … Whitmer: “I've always said that I'll work with anyone to get things done for Michigan. That's why I've continued to go to DC, to make sure that Michiganders are front and center when critical decisions are being made." … AP: “Newsmax will pay $67 million to settle a lawsuit accusing it of defaming a voting equipment company by spreading lies about Trump’s 2020 election loss. The settlement comes after Fox News paid $787.5 million to settle a similar lawsuit in 2023 and Newsmax paid what court papers describe as $40 million to settle a libel lawsuit from a different voting machine manufacturer, Smartmatic, which also was a target of pro-Trump conspiracy theories on the network.” … Fox reported that HHS Sec RFK Jr and SecDef Pete Hegseth spent today doing a pullup and pushup competition against each other they called the "Pete and Bobby Challenge." I posted the video of Hegeth’s pullup attempts on social media, which weren’t exactly regulation for us at Parris Island in the Marine Corps, but maybe this is acceptable for the Army.

 

Trump-Putin Alaska Summit Preview, Paid Subscriber Debrief AMA at 6:30pm ET on Substack Live Alexander Vindman Aug 15 Dear readers, Today is the highly anticipated Trump-Putin summit in Alaska. This meeting may have huge implications for American geostrategy and could fundamentally alter the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war. I wanted to provide my perspective on the potential outcomes of this meeting and what it means for the United States, Ukraine, and the world as a whole. You’ll notice that it’s similar to my statement from yesterday with some timely updates - I stand by my initial assessment and believe that this administration is fundamentally unprepared for today’s summit. However, I also wanted to announce that after the summit I will be holding a special paid-subscriber only debriefing at 6:30pm ET, where you can ask me anything about the Trump-Putin summit. You can ask a question in the 08/15 thread on the Substack chat app linked here. I’d love to hear what you have to think and I hope you can join me later tonight. Why It Matters is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. The United States has no concrete plan for today’s summit between Donald Trump and Vladimir Putin. This is more than just an oversight by an administration known for its lack of long-term policy planning: this is an invitation for trouble. Bilateral summits between major powers require months of behind-the-scenes preparation and extensive alignment between relevant parties. If done correctly, this ensures that heads of state are finalizing a deal and not improvising a new agreement (or alternatively, both parties realize they cannot move beyond an impasse and walk-back the potential summit). Given the rapid oscillations in Trump’s Russia policy over the past six months, there’s no reason to believe that this summit was organized well in advance - I would go as far as to say that the Trump team began planning the summit shortly before it was announced to the public following the expiration of Trump’s “deadline”. The lack of preparation shows: there’s no mutual agreement on a ceasefire, no alignment on whether or not Ukraine will be expected to surrender territory, and no agreement on any sort of post-war peacekeeping, monitoring, or security guarantees. Ukraine isn’t even invited to the summit. It’s looking like today the president will walk into a room and rely purely on his instincts in negotiating against a counterpart who has built a career exploiting exactly these kinds of open-ended encounters. By Trump’s own admission, this negotiation has a 25% chance of failure. I’m sure a former KGB operative like Putin loves the prospect of a 1:1 negotiation with someone that’s willing to win a Nobel Peace Prize at all costs, even if it means Ukrainian surrender. Leaving the meeting’s substance undefined creates a vacuum that Putin will be eager to fill. History has shown how dangerous this approach can be. Successful summits from Reykjavik to Camp David to Dayton required rigorous diplomatic groundwork beforehand that narrowed disagreements and set clear expectations. Without that foundation, the outcome of the summit becomes a matter of who is better prepared to seize the initiative and direct the conversation. In this area, the advantage lies firmly with Moscow. The stakes go well beyond Ukraine’s borders. By excluding Ukraine and the EU, Trump is treating Russia as the only actor with agency in the negotiation process and is giving Moscow unparalleled decision making ability with regards to European security. Recent details published over the past two days include reports that the Trump administration is looking to easing sanctions on the Russian Federation as part of the negotiation process. One proposal includes extending mining rights to Russian firms for operations in Alaska or occupied Eastern Ukraine. Beyond the immediate questions regarding the legality of these offers (and Trump’s ability to extend them due to congressional oversight), offers of economic relief may splinter the united front between the United States and European Union on the topic of sanctions against Russia. Moreover, it appears that these concessions are being offered without the inclusion of a ceasefire or freezing of the conflict line. All these signs point to a lack of coordination and a frantic, last-minute effort to cobble together a peace platform that’s bound to fail. One possible outcome is that Trump agrees to terms heavily skewed toward Russia, including territorial concessions by Ukraine, acceptance of Moscow’s expanded sphere of influence, or reduced military support for Kyiv. These offers would only embolden the Kremlin’s appetite for further expansion and plunge Europe into an even greater state of alert. While Ukraine would keep fighting, the lack of American military aid would have an immediate impact on Ukraine’s ability to fight and defend its civilian population against the Russian military. Another possibility is that the meeting ends without an agreement. The fighting in Ukraine grinds on, only now Washington is further estranged from its European allies having organized the summit and potential peace terms without their consultation. The absence of a united front would make joint military planning more difficult, erode interoperability, and weaken the Western alliance’s ability to deter future aggression. Moreover, our allies abroad will spend the remainder of Trump’s presidency wondering if the United States will leave them in the dark and negotiate on their behalf in response to potential great power competition. The third scenario is that of the “optics win,” a shallow compromise that allows Trump to claim victory at home while granting Putin enough leeway to keep his long-term objectives intact. This outcome would be seen by every authoritarian leader as proof that the United States can be maneuvered into trading away strategic leverage for a press release and photo op of a smiling Trump holding up signed paper. This would outright alienate Washington from its allies and send the message that the United States is fundamentally uninterested in upholding its principles and defending the post-war order. The least likely scenario is Trump walking away empty hand, not looking the part of a deal maker. In this scenario, would throw his hands in the air, lose interest in ending the Russia-Ukraine war and move to easier PR wins. Or less likely, he could levy harsh sanctions on Russia and energize support for Ukraine to pressure Putin into negotiations and peace. In all three cases, the effect is the same: American deterrence is weakened, Russia’s revanchism is encouraged, and the risk of new, greater security challenges in Europe is increased. Undermining our credibility in such a way in the midst of rising tensions with China, Iran, and Russia is like scattering gunpowder on the floor and daring someone to strike a match. Putin opened with a demand that Ukraine withdraw from territories that the Russian military has failed to capture. This shows his confidence in shaping the agenda and his strategic interests in the negotiation process. The Russian government’s lack of commitment towards a concrete ceasefire suggests a familiar pattern seen in early negotiations: secure concrete gains in exchange for vague promises, then use those gains as a platform for the next push. Without firm conditions, the United States will play directly into Russia’s strategy. For Ukraine, national survival depends on more than simply an end to the shooting: it requires binding, credible security guarantees that deter future attacks. For Zelenskyy, the acceptance of an agreement that has no means of providing a durable, lasting peace means accepting defeat today and war in the future. The only acceptable outcome from a U.S. perspective is one that leaves Ukraine’s sovereignty intact, integrates it firmly with the West, and provides enforceable protections against renewed Russian aggression. That is not the trajectory this summit is on. By going in without any substantial preparatory work, Trump has set the stage for disaster. 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An Attack on American Diplomacy Trump’s State Department Layoffs Are a Gift to America’s Adversaries Alexander Vindman Jul 12 The State Department has initiated its first major layoff under the second Trump administration. A total of 1,107 civil servants and 246 Foreign Service Officers received notices that their positions were being "abolished" and that they would lose access to all department systems and services by the end of the day Friday, July 11. This move follows a recent Supreme Court decision that limits lower courts' ability to block federal personnel cuts—effectively green-lighting mass layoffs justified under headcount reduction efforts like the so-called Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE). As with the earlier purges across the federal civil service, this is a reckless and destructive decision that will be welcomed in Beijing, Moscow, and Tehran. The diplomats, foreign service officers, and career civil servants at the State Department are the stewards of American diplomacy. They work tirelessly—often behind the scenes—to advance U.S. interests, build coalitions, de-escalate crises, and defend American values abroad. For nearly eight months, these professionals have been forced into triage mode, managing the fallout from President Trump’s erratic, impulsive foreign policy. The dysfunction of Trump’s second term far exceeds that of his first. With little credible leadership in his cabinet and virtually no guardrails left inside the administration, the State Department has served as one of the last lines of defense. These professionals helped soften the blow of shuttering USAID and its global health, humanitarian, and development missions. They worked overtime to explain, rationalize, and contain the consequences of Trump’s chaotic behavior to both allies and adversaries. In many cases, their competence insulated the United States from even worse strategic consequences. The dismissal of these diplomats is not just a bureaucratic reshuffle. It is a direct blow to America’s capacity to operate globally and will erode U.S. power, influence, and credibility at a moment when the international system is already under immense strain. Much like the firings at the Department of Defense and the strong-arming of senior intelligence officials into early retirement, this purge undermines U.S. national security. The consequences are not limited to today’s headlines. By gutting the ranks of career diplomats and foreign service professionals, the Trump administration is inflicting lasting damage on the future of American diplomacy. Foreign service careers already demand extraordinary sacrifice—frequent relocations, high-threat assignments, long postings in war zones or disaster-affected regions. One of the few incentives that sustained these careers was a sense of professional stability and institutional support. Strip that away, and talented Americans will think twice before joining the diplomatic corps. We are putting ourselves in a dangerous position now and setting ourselves up for failure later. The tally of damage just six months into Trump’s second term is already staggering. He has torched relationships with our closest allies and emboldened our adversaries. For all his boasts about deal-making, he has failed to make progress on peace in Ukraine, end the Israel-Hamas war, or ease regional tensions in the Middle East. He has ignited economic disputes that threaten to escalate into full-blown trade wars. Around the world, hunger, disease, and instability are rising and the very teams trained to address those crises are being dismantled. This is not “America First.” This is America alone. And the world is taking note. Our enemies are watching—and they are celebrating. Why It Matters is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber.