POLITICO NIGHTLY: The pandemic’s new shape

By Renuka Rayasam

Presented by

SLOW BURN — The pandemic has a new shape: the plateau. For all the talk of peaks and curves, the number of new confirmed cases across the country has hovered at around 30,000 every day for the past few weeks. That means the virus is still actively spreading in the U.S., but it has more of a slow burn than a hot sizzle. There are now more than 1.1 million total confirmed cases in the country. The curve is flat — By early April most states and major cities issued restrictions to “flatten the curve.” The pandemic plateau is, by some measures, a sign of their success. The restrictions, for the most part, kept caseloads from spiraling out of control. In Austin and a handful of other Texas cities, shelter in place orders reduced the transmission rate by about 90 percent, said Lauren Ancel Meyers, a biologist at the University of Texas who has been tracking Covid-19 deaths. Without lockdowns, case counts would be so high in many places that they would overwhelm the health system, further boosting death rates. “We turned a mountain into a molehill,” Meyers said. It also means the virus is still on the loose — The death toll predictions through August from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation were raised today to 134,000 from 72,000. As Andrew McGill pointed out, focusing on a flat daily plateau of new cases can obscure steep growth in the cumulative caseload. Testing lags are also preventing us from knowing the true spread of the disease. Most of the 7 million people who have been tested in the U.S. had severe symptoms of Covid. So the true number of infected could be many, many times higher. As the U.S. tests more people, it will find more cases. But death rates have also hovered at around 2,000 a day — meaning that even with increased testing, the rate of new cases is probably leveling off. And reopening in many areas hinges on whether the number of new confirmed cases starts to move downward. That’s not happening on a large scale. “The plateau is what I call a death handoff situation,” said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota epidemiologist. In other words, as new cases decrease in one part of the country, they increase in another. The total number of new cases and deaths remains steady as they move around. The worst probably is still in front of us — As local officials relax restrictions and more people start visiting restaurants and movie theaters, the number of new cases will rise. “Flattening the curve is just the first step; it’s not enough,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease researcher at Columbia University. Covid won’t be contained until about 60 to 70 percent of the population becomes infected or has immunity, according to a new report co-written by Osterholm. About 5 to 15 percent of Americans are estimated to have been infected to date. That means we should be prepared for the virus to keep spreading for another 18 to 24 months, he said, with the virus either coming and going in different waves or continuing to simmer throughout the next year. Flat is good. Round, and down, is better. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. Jealously watching my friend Chad Thomas get a haircut in Berlin today. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America’s biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. We are rapidly screening our vast global libraries to identify potential treatments and have 284 clinical trials underway. Explore our efforts.

On The Hill

Matt Wuerker

WELCOME BACK — The Senate held its first roll call vote today since March 25, Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine write. Thirteen senators didn’t even show up in an institution where roughly half the members are 65 or older and are at heightened risk of the virus. Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, the second oldest member of the Senate at 86, drove in from Iowa for the week’s proceedings. The House remains closed. While senators tried to get back to business, it was anything but a normal work day, said Marianne. Your host chatted with her on Slack after deadline to talk about the day on The Hill. The conversation has been edited for clarity. What precautions did senators take? Nearly every member wore a mask. They also were good about practicing social distancing. A few members did not wear them. But most did! The only exceptions were Republican Sens. Rand Paul and Ron Johnson. There were also some fun masks. Richard Shelby had a University of Alabama themed one. There weren't a ton of aides around. Each senator had a max of one from what I saw. How did it feel? Doing interviews while wearing a mask and keeping your distance can be challenging! It can be hard to hear what the senator's response is and I'm sure it's hard for them to hear our questions. The Hill is also known for large scrums, where reporters tend to crowd around senators. Those have luckily gone away with coronavirus. I think it was a little eerie. It felt really quiet. There were fewer reporters than we typically see and skeleton staff. What did they work on? Honestly there's not a lot that they did today, which is a big Dem criticism. They came in to confirm an inspector general nominee to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Democrats would argue this was not worth coming in, especially since the IG got confirmed 87-0, but Republicans say it’s their responsibility to be back in Washington and confirm executive or judicial nominees. Later in the week we can see some judicial nominees and some national security related agenda items. Democrats are saying that if the Senate comes back it should be coronavirus focused. And focused on oversight of the coronavirus legislation Congress has already passed. What about another round of coronavirus legislation? Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called for more money for hospitals, hazard pay for essential workers, and help to state and local governments. Republicans want to see how the money that’s already been allocated is being spent. As far as Covid, I don't think we'll see anything on the floor anytime soon. I’M JUST A BILL — Top House Democrats today signaled they are forging ahead with the next sweeping coronavirus relief package, aiming to up the pressure on Republican leaders who have rejected Democratic priorities in previous aid bills, Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris report. On a private call with members this afternoon, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her deputies sketched the outline of a trillion-dollar-plus package that would deliver aid to state and local governments — some on the brink of public service cuts — while shoring up safety net programs for the nation’s most vulnerable. Democrats privately admit the expansive legislation is more of a policy wishlist than anything, but say they hope to move before the Senate crafts legislation, laying down the starting point for bipartisan negotiations.

First In Nightly

NO EXECUTIVE SESSION — President Donald Trump continues to urge states to reopen their economies this spring, arguing, as he did Sunday night from the foot of Lincoln Memorial, that “a lot of people want to go back” to work. But with Covid-19 infections still rising in the D.C. metropolitan area and other major cities, Trump and his administration are struggling to bring back the one workforce they actually control — federal government employees, Daniel Lippman and Nolan McCaskill write. Early indicators suggest it’s likely to be months before federal workers are back in the office at normal, pre-coronavirus levels. The Trump administration issued general guidance for federal agencies on April 20, laying out how they can begin to reopen federal government offices and bring operations back to normal. The memo from the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management did not, however, set any timelines or mandates, leaving much of the discretion up to individual agencies.

From the Health Desk

UNTESTED TESTS — The Food and Drug Administration is walking back a widely criticized policy that allowed more than 100 coronavirus antibody tests on the market without agency review, David Lim writes. Manufacturers of antibody tests must now apply for emergency use authorization within 10 business days after their products hit the market, under a policy announced today. If a test does not meet the FDA's specificity and sensitivity criteria, its manufacturer must suspend distribution.

WEDNESDAY - A VIRTUAL INTERVIEW WITH FORMER BRITISH PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR: Join Global Translations author Ryan Heath on Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. EDT for a virtual discussion with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair about what partnerships are needed around the world to minimize the health and economic impacts of coronavirus, how to handle deepening inequalities, and what the global architecture of a new and more resilient “normal” should look like. Have questions? Submit yours by tweeting it to @POLITICOLive using #AskPOLITICO. REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.

Olympic silver-medalist rower Polly Swann trains at home during the coronavirus lockdown in Edinburgh, United Kingdom. | Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images

Around the Nation

ALL BETS ARE OFF — In February, Atlantic City was finally rebounding after years of financial turmoil. Then coronavirus hit . New Jersey Playbook author Matt Friedman explains why the coastal city could be one of the biggest economic disasters of the pandemic — and the harsh lessons for the rest of us — in the latest episode of POLITICO Dispatch.

Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast

Ask The Audience

Our question for our readers this week: What routines and activities, if any, are you resuming this week? Use the form to send us your responses, and we plan to feature several later this week.

WEDNESDAY - HOW DO WE SAVE SMALL BUSINESSES? The coronavirus has crushed small businesses across the country. There’s been confusion and frustration stemming from the turbulent rollout of the Paycheck Protection Program. Join POLITICO chief economic correspondent Ben White on Wednesday at 9 a.m. EDT for a virtual discussion with Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Small Business Committee, about how banks have struggled with the Paycheck Protection Program's disbursement process, what the next round of stimulus funding must include to keep small businesses and local economies afloat, and the return of elected officials to the Capitol despite concerns about spurring an outbreak. Have questions? Submit yours by tweeting it to @POLITICOLive using #AskPOLITICO. REGISTER HERE.

The Global Fight

WHAT GLOBAL COMMUNITY? The U.S. and Russia were no-shows today at the European Union’s Covid-era telethon : A video call of world leaders pledging money to ensure everyone in the world gets a Covid-19 vaccine as quickly as possible, Ryan Heath writes. China sent only a mid-level representative, despite a growing international backlash over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen optimistically called the $8 billion pledged during the call “a defining moment for the global community.” Given the trillions pledged for domestic stimulus, the defining moment was really the breakdown in global solidarity. International health organizations say the pledged amount is less than half of what is needed for global vaccine distribution. The biggest donor is Norway (population 5 million). And the U.S. government felt no need to justify its absence. A U.S. State Department official refused four times — when quizzed by reporters — to say why the U.S. did not participate in the event.

People receive communion during Mass today, the first day churches and other houses of worship are allowed to hold services again in Bavaria since March, in Munich, Germany. | Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images

PUNCHLINES CARTOONING DURING #METOO — Matt Wuerker looks at the complex ways artists and online commenters are handling Tara Reade’s accusations against former Vice President Joe Biden in the latest episode of Punchlines. Matt also looks into conservative cartoonists’ depictions of the scandal and its comparisons to the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings. Nightly Number 70 percent The share of people surveyed across Africa who said food and water would be a problem if they were required to remain at home for 14 days, according to a study produced by the Partnership for Evidence-based Response to COVID-19, formed by members of the World Economic Forum COVID Action Platform. The data also found more than half would run out of money. Parting Words A MYSTERY IN WARSAW — Will Poland hold a presidential election on Sunday? No one really knows. The ruling party is mulling whether to shift the date of the vote. Former presidents and prime ministers are calling for a boycott. And foreign observers are increasingly alarmed at the disarray. With 683 dead from Covid-19 in Poland and 13,937 infected as of today, the usual preparations have not taken place, and concerns about safety have raised serious doubts. The government could declare a state of natural catastrophe, which delays any election until 90 days after such a state is lifted — but it has refused to take that step. Questions remain about the security of a postal ballot law rushed through parliament last month. "We're on the eve of a week that will determine whether Poland remains a free democratic country, or if it takes a big step in the direction of a dictatorship," Szymon Hołownia, an independent candidate, said Sunday.   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America’s biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. The investments we’ve made have prepared us to act swiftly: · Rapidly screening our vast global libraries to identify potential treatments and have 284 clinical trials underway · Dedicating our top scientists and using our investments in new technologies to speed the development of safe and effective vaccines · Sharing learnings from clinical trials in real time with governments and other companies to advance the development of additional therapies · Expanding our unique manufacturing capabilities and sharing available capacity to ramp up production once a successful medicine or vaccine is developed Explore our efforts.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us

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RSN: Al Franken | Start Hearings Now!

03 May 20

It's Live on the HomePage Now:
Reader Supported News

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Al Franken | Start Hearings Now!

Al Franken, Al Franken's Website
Franken writes: "Before President Trump offered the insanely stupid (and I do not mean that sarcastically) idea of injecting disinfectants into our bodies to treat Covid-19, a good majority of Americans had already concluded that Trump is not providing the wise, measured leadership of, say, a Lincoln or an FDR."

Leadership has come from elsewhere. From governors, medical professionals, and other essential workers on the front lines. But we have no coherent national response to this pandemic. That response really should come from the federal government.

There are three branches of our federal government. Donald Trump leads the executive branch and has shown himself to be completely dishonest, extremely paranoid, and, yes, stupid. Dishonest, disturbed, and stupid are no way to lead a country, sir.

That leaves the other two branches. One of those is the Supreme Court, which is ill-suited to lead in anything other than a Constitutional crisis, let alone a pandemic. Also, the Court just fast-tracked the appeal of the decision of both the district and circuit courts by a purely partisan 5-4 margin. All in order to force the people of Wisconsin to risk their lives to vote in the state election of a state judge.

The 5-4 margin exists only because Senate majority leader, Mitch McConnell is a proudly transparent, shameless hypocrite, who recently gave “a sly smile” when confirming that he would fill a Court vacancy if one opens up between now and noon on January 20, 2021.

In the meantime, McConnell is suggesting that states declare bankruptcy.

So, that leaves the House, whose members are now back in their home districts on recess. Most, I’m sure, are sheltered at home and working hard, consulting with state officials, local businesses, hospitals, schools, doctors, and (if they’re Democrats) labor leaders.

A message to Speaker Pelosi. Tens of thousands of Americans are dead, and tens of thousands more will die. Our economy is in freefall. Maybe this would be a good time to have hearings.

Say, on testing. President Trump keeps saying that we’ve tested more people per capita than any other country. He’s lying! Shouldn’t Congress call expert witnesses, read and hear their testimony, and then ask them questions?

Do we have a national plan for scaling up the testing as fast as possible? What should the federal role be? The state role? Do we have every lab working at full capacity? What kind of tests do we need and in what quantities, and how do we make sure they are distributed and administered strategically? Is the FDA on top of guaranteeing that Americans aren’t getting bad tests? Do we have the reagents we need? No? Then where can we get them? Do we have a national plan for contact tracing? How would that work? What is the most effective use of testing to enable us to get people back to work? Do we need to spend a lot more on testing?

That’s just the tip of the iceberg. On testing.

How do we make sure kids aren’t hungry?

What would the effect on worldwide markets if our states did start declaring bankruptcy?

This is a worldwide pandemic. How are we working with the rest of the world?

What exactly does the World Health Organization do? Is it really a good idea to cut off our funding?

Is there a black market in PPE? What can we do to stop that? Should Trump finally fully invoke the Defense Production Act so there are no shortages?

And – how about a little oversight on the nearly $3 trillion dedicated so far to addressing the pandemic and the economic disaster that has come along with it. Yes, the Speaker has established an oversight committee on the $3 trillion that Congress has approved thus far. But why exactly aren’t we having hearings now?

It’s true that bringing the 435 House members together under one Dome creates some real social distancing problems. But it’s also true that my three-year-old granddaughter, Avery, meets with her pre-school class five days a week online. She has a staffer (my daughter) who gets her connected. And it works like a charm. Yes, the House would need to adopt new rules to allow virtual hearings. Well – do that!

Now, Americans might say – “Hey, Congress! Suck it up and wear PPE at hearings. Just like our medical professionals and so many other Americans.” Fine. Then do that! But, Christ! Do something!

America desperately needs leadership – right now. Donald Trump is not providing it. The Senate won’t provide it. If Mitch McConnell approves an oversight committee, it’ll be on Joe Biden. Or Hunter Biden. Or another Biden.

Avery sees and talks with her teacher and classmates on this thing called Zoom. They’re working now on sounding out the letters of the alphabet. I’m not sure how secure Zoom is. But my guess is that the House could figure this out. Please. Start hearings now!

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Antibody tests are performed on a blood sample, and are seen by many governments as key to better understanding the spread of mild and asymptomatic cases of Covid-19. (photo: IPA/Zuma Press)

FDA Approves Antibody Test That Claims Near-Perfect Accuracy
Denise Roland, The Wall Street Journal
Roland writes: "The Food and Drug Administration has cleared for emergency use an antibody test from diagnostics giant Roche Holding AG RHHBY -1.45%, the company said Sunday, a move that could add significant capacity to efforts to determine the wider spread of Covid-19."

EXCERPT:

Roche says its test has proven 100% accurate at detecting Covid-19 antibodies in the blood, and 99.8% accurate at ruling out the presence of those antibodies. In other words, only two in every 1,000 samples lacking the antibodies would produce a “false positive” result.

Thomas Schinecker, who leads Roche’s diagnostics business, said in an interview that the company was able to run its test on around 6,000 blood samples, a figure he said was significantly higher than smaller rivals. He said the test reliably detects antibodies when the blood sample is drawn at least 14 days after infection.

Governments around the world hope reliable antibody testing could help gauge how much of the population remains susceptible to the virus, in order to guide decisions about easing lockdowns. Some have even considered issuing “immunity passports” to people who have antibodies that could allow them to, for example, return to work earlier.

In most infectious diseases, the antibodies produced after a first infection act quickly to neutralize any subsequent infection, protecting the person from falling ill again. But even a reliable antibody test may not be a foolproof way of measuring immunity against Covid-19. Because the virus is so new, scientists still don’t know how long antibodies remain in the blood. What’s more, it is unclear whether it is possible to fall ill from Covid-19 a second time, despite the presence of antibodies.

The Swiss health-care giant’s heft means it can ramp up the provision of its antibody test quickly. The test kits are designed to run on the company’s automated machines, which are already installed in more than 100 laboratories across the U.S. They will be made available immediately.

Roche says it will be able to churn out test kits, made in Germany, in the high double-digit millions by June. The company aims to double that capacity by the end of the year, said Mr. Schinecker.

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Donald Trump. (photo: Win McNamee/Getty Images)

Trump Casually Doubles the Number of Americans He'd Be Okay Losing to the Coronavirus
Bess Levin, Vanity Fair
Levin writes: "Presumably this won't be the last time between now and November that he revises both the number of dead Americans the country should consider a success, and how many he'll take credit for saving."

HORRIFYINNG EXCERPT:

One-hundred thousand is the new sixty-thousand.

f your sense of time has become a flat circle these last couple of months, it might be hard to remember what was going on in February 2020. But as a reminder, that was when Donald Trump declared that there would be no more than 15 coronavirus cases total in the U.S. Shortly thereafter, he nudged that number up just slightly, claiming that the disease would prove nowhere near as bad as the 2009 H1N1 flu outbreak, which killed roughly 12,500 Americans. At the end of March, he shifted expectations a tad, saying that if the U.S. death toll clocked in between 100,000 and 200,000, it would mean his administration had “done a very good job.” Later, when strict social distancing measures began to flatten the curve, he opined that 60,000 dead Americans would be a win. Now, as the U.S. has surpassed that figure, the president has adjusted his yardstick for success once again, casually declaring that, actually, maybe 100,000 people will die.

Speaking to reporters before departing for a weekend at Camp David, Trump shared that “hopefully we’re going to come in under 100,000 lives lost,” and if that’s the case, it’ll mean he saved something like 1 millions lives, or 1.5 million or hey, let’s just call it 2.5 million lives.

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People hold signs during a protest against coronavirus lockdown measures in Chicago, Illinois. (photo: Kamil Krzaczyński/AFP/Getty Images)

Auschwitz Memorial Condemns Presence of Nazi Slogan at US Anti-Lockdown Rally
Jedidajah Otte, Guardian UK
Otte writes: "The organization that runs the Auschwitz memorial has condemned the appearance at a US anti-lockdown rally of a picket sign bearing a Nazi slogan displayed above the entrance of the concentration camp."

HORRIFYING EXCERPT:

Holocaust survivors often describe the slogan as a reminder of the many ways in which the Nazis tried to give their prisoners false hope, with the inscription suggesting to the people arriving at the camps that hard work would eventually secure their release, when their deaths were already certain.

The long, curving iron sign spanning the gates of Auschwitz is perhaps the best known version of the slogan. It was stolen by thieves from the death camp’s memorial site in Poland in 2009, but recovered by police and returned a month later.

Pritzker, a Democrat, has repeatedly emphasised the need for an extensive test-and-trace programme across the state before lockdown measures can be lifted, and ordered all Illinois residents to shelter in place from 21 March.

He subsequently extended the order until at least 31 May, a decision that could be overruled by the courts after the Republican lawmaker Darren Bailey filed a lawsuit alleging Pritzker did not have the legal authority to extend it beyond 30 days.

David Harris, CEO of the American Jewish Committee, said in a tweet: “Those words – Work Sets You Free – were a savage Nazi hoax for slave labor and gas chambers. JB in the sign refers to state’s Jewish governor. Shameful. Shocking. Sickening.”

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University of Illinois at Chicago graduate workers and supporters during a strike in 2019. (photo: Dawn Tefft)

Unions Can Fight for and Win COVID-19 Protections
Zukhra Kasimova and Dawn Tefft, Jacobin
Excerpt: "Workers at the University of Illinois at Chicago (UIC) have bargained what we believe are the first set of wins for a graduate union negotiating the effects of COVID-19. It was our winning strike last year that made our employer realize it should come to the table and give us what we demanded."
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CDC's laboratory test kit for severe acute respiratory syndrome coronavirus 2 (SARS-CoV-2). (photo: CDC)

Colorado Purchased 100K Covid-19 Tests From South Korea and 'Kept It Under Wraps' to Avoid Feds Seizure, Says Governor
Aila Slisco, Newsweek
Slisco writes: "Colorado Governor Jared Polis did not announce that the state recently received over 100,000 coronavirus test kits from South Korea over fears that federal authorities could seize them."

Multiple instances of feds seizing state supplies of tests and personal protective equipment have been reported since the COVID-19 pandemic began. Polis said on Friday that Colorado kept their latest shipment hidden because the state did not want to lose the tests to "the competition."

"We were worried that the federal government or somebody else would take them," the governor told Colorado Public Radio. "We kept it under wraps. We simply didn't know if anybody would swoop in... I mean, we didn't want another state or the feds or anybody."

"We don't want to give the competition, which could mean other countries, could mean our own country, could mean other states—we don't want to give them a heads up of what we're doing," he added.

Colorado is not the only state government to act out of concern that supplies could be taken by the federal government or others. Maryland Governor Larry Hogan told The Washington Post on Thursday that members of the Maryland National Guard and state police were at an "undisclosed location" protecting 500,000 tests that had recently arrived from South Korea.

Polis said that the state had previously attempted to buy a supply of ventilators but was unable to do so because the Federal Emergency Management Agency (FEMA) intervened to take control of supplies of the potentially life-saving medical equipment.

"With regard to a ventilator acquisition... we were basically told by the legitimate company and the CEO that, look, FEMA has delayed all the state orders," Polis said. "So, you know, it's not canceled. Maybe you'll get it someday in six months. But basically, FEMA is buying our entire production for four months. We can't fulfill yours."

Polis said that testing has rapidly increased in the state. He noted that the virus is often spread by people who are infected but asymptomatic and said the state would focus on testing workers in assisted living facilities regardless of symptoms. He also suggested that people who think they may have contracted the virus getting tested was of limited value, saying it provides "no clinical benefit."

The governor recently lifted his stay-at-home order in favor of a "safer-at-home" order that began this week. Businesses like salons and in-person shopping at retail stores were allowed to resume Friday. Polling has suggested that clear majority of Colorado residents would rather the stay-at-home order be continued.

Newsweek reached out to Polis for comment but did not receive a response in time for publication.

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Smokes rises from forest fires in Altamira, Pará state, Brazil, in the Amazon basin, on August 27, 2019. (photo: Joao Laet/Getty)

Coronavirus: Amazon Deforestation Could Trigger New Pandemics, Experts Warn Amid Fears Over Brazilian Land Ownership Law
Andy Gregory, The Independent
Andy Gregory writes: "The Brazilian government is seeking to use coronavirus as cover to usher in laws which could lead to increased occupation of indigenous lands and deforestation in the Amazon, campaigners and experts allege, amid warnings that further environmental disruption may lead to new pandemics."

‘We run the risk of a serious environmental reverse during this crisis’, former environment agency chief warns

The country has been divided on the severity of Covid-19, with president Jair Bolsonaro dismissing it as “a little flu” and opposing lockdown measures, for which public support is waning, despite mass graves being dug in Sao Paulo in the face of rising fatalities.

While the crisis has seen most industries grind to a standstill, government data suggests deforestation in the Brazilian Amazon rose 30 per cent in March compared to the same period last year, with the most recent data suggesting the trend has continued in April.

Sharing the full story, not just the headlines

There has also been a reported increase in forays into some indigenous lands by miners and land-grabbers, as both civil and official protection efforts are scaled back for fear of infection.

Against this backdrop, scientists are issuing renewed warnings that ecological disruption can increase the chance of novel infections crossing over to humans – known as “zoonotic” diseases.

“Approximately one in three outbreaks of new and emerging illnesses is linked to changes in land use, like deforestation,” Peter Daszak, president of EcoHealth Alliance, told Mongabay.

Dr Daszak was lead author in a vast US government-backed study published in 2019 which noted that HIV, Ebola and Zika virus are all “diseases causally linked to land change use”.

Some experts suggest the Amazon is a particularly high-risk location for novel outbreaks.

“Where you have a huge biodiverse zone, the Amazon, and then you have an encroaching human footprint, through urbanisation, road networks, deforestation, extractive industries like logging and mining, you have all of the ingredients for a virus spillover recipe,” David Wolking, of the University of California’s One Health Institute told Greenpeace’s investigative arm, Unearthed.

Wildfires, often caused by slash-and-burn deforestation tactics, can also play a role in the emergence of new diseases.

Notably, some researchers now credit the huge fires in Indonesia in 1998 with the arrival of Nipah virus – with vast smoke clouds forcing fruit bats to search elsewhere for food, settling on trees in Malaysian orchards. Pigs eating the same fruit soon fell ill, with farmers following suit shortly afterwards.

With the Amazon suffering its worst fire season in a decade in 2019, more than a dozen international experts convened to offer a stark warning.

“The Amazon region of Brazil, endemic for many communicable or zoonotic diseases can, after a wildfire, trigger a selection for survival, and with it change the habitat and behaviours of some animal species,” they wrote. ”These can be reservoirs of zoonotic bacteria, viruses, and parasites.”

Amid these warnings, Brazilian congress could soon hold a digital-only vote – using emergency processes introduced to allow more rapid decision-making during the Covid-19 crisis – on enshrining temporary legislation into permanent law, which campaigners warn would legitimise historic land-grabs and facilitate new invasions, paving the way for further deforestation.

As a result, the 120-day Provisional Measure (MP) 910, decreed by Mr Bolsonaro in December, may now be passed as a permanent measure within the next three weeks without being subjected to typical levels of debate and scrutiny, environmentalists allege.

The Bolsonaro administration has said the new land ownership rules will grant legal titles to farmers who have occupied federal lands in a “tame and peaceful way for many years”, enabling them to “rise above subsistence farming and improve their income”.

It insists the new law in “no way” facilitates land-grabbing or deforestation, arguing that new landowners will be held strictly accountable for the preservation of up to 80 per cent of their land.

But analysts warn that the new legislation allows huge swathes of land illegally cut down and occupied before 2018 – often by criminal gangs – to be legally seized by land-grabbers using evidence of their illegal activities as proof of their occupation.

Meanwhile, a new rule called IN 09, passed last week by the government’s indigenous agency Funai, strips yet-to-be-demarcated but indigenous lands of their designation as “indigenous” in the land registry, according to Greenpeace.

Roughly a third of all indigenous land is not yet demarcated, the group says. In 2019, the BBC reported that more than 800,000 indigenous people lived in 450 demarcated indigenous territories, which accounted for 12 per cent of the country’s total land area.

These new changes will allow people occupying indigenous land – usually for the purpose of deforestation and agriculture or mining – to obtain a certificate that the land is undemarcated.

Under the proposed new law, MP 910, this certificate could then be used in support of a land-grabber’s claim to legalise property on that land, and eventually purchase for a fraction of the value without bidding against other parties.

The former head of the country’s environment agency has also warned that sections of the proposed law which supposedly benefit small farmers – by scrapping the need for official inspections of land under 2,500 hectares ahead of a potential acquisition – could be exploited as loopholes by large-scale land-grabbers.

The government says it will stop proxy ownership by larger parties – who it is feared could use small landowners to acquire it for them without official assessment - by banning the sale of newly acquired land for the first 10 years.

“With this flexibility, and without separating big landowners from small ones, this law legalises those who live from land invasion, deforestation and the sale of public land,” Suely Araujo, former president of Ibama, told Mongabay.

She added: “If there isn’t a political decision to withdraw MP 910 from the measures to be voted through, we run the risk of a serious environmental reverse during this [health] crisis.”

The 2018 cut-off date would be the second extension of an initial 2004 cut-off, which campaigners fear would embolden land-grabbers with the promise of continually renewed amnesty for past crimes.

As a result, the new law could lead to the deforestation of an additional 1.6 million hectares – an area larger than Yemen – by 2027, conservation research organisation Imazon estimates.

“If passed, it would be a hard blow against any hope that there will be any regaining control and fighting deforestation,” Brenda Brito, a lawyer and researcher at Imazon, told Unearthed.

“It will, in fact, be the end of that hope, if anyone is still hopeful that the current government will actually face and fight deforestation. Because this measure will end up stimulating even more than is happening now.”

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