POLITICO NIGHTLY: The pandemic’s new shape

By Renuka Rayasam

Presented by

SLOW BURN — The pandemic has a new shape: the plateau. For all the talk of peaks and curves, the number of new confirmed cases across the country has hovered at around 30,000 every day for the past few weeks. That means the virus is still actively spreading in the U.S., but it has more of a slow burn than a hot sizzle. There are now more than 1.1 million total confirmed cases in the country. The curve is flat — By early April most states and major cities issued restrictions to “flatten the curve.” The pandemic plateau is, by some measures, a sign of their success. The restrictions, for the most part, kept caseloads from spiraling out of control. In Austin and a handful of other Texas cities, shelter in place orders reduced the transmission rate by about 90 percent, said Lauren Ancel Meyers, a biologist at the University of Texas who has been tracking Covid-19 deaths. Without lockdowns, case counts would be so high in many places that they would overwhelm the health system, further boosting death rates. “We turned a mountain into a molehill,” Meyers said. It also means the virus is still on the loose — The death toll predictions through August from the University of Washington’s Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation were raised today to 134,000 from 72,000. As Andrew McGill pointed out, focusing on a flat daily plateau of new cases can obscure steep growth in the cumulative caseload. Testing lags are also preventing us from knowing the true spread of the disease. Most of the 7 million people who have been tested in the U.S. had severe symptoms of Covid. So the true number of infected could be many, many times higher. As the U.S. tests more people, it will find more cases. But death rates have also hovered at around 2,000 a day — meaning that even with increased testing, the rate of new cases is probably leveling off. And reopening in many areas hinges on whether the number of new confirmed cases starts to move downward. That’s not happening on a large scale. “The plateau is what I call a death handoff situation,” said Michael Osterholm, a University of Minnesota epidemiologist. In other words, as new cases decrease in one part of the country, they increase in another. The total number of new cases and deaths remains steady as they move around. The worst probably is still in front of us — As local officials relax restrictions and more people start visiting restaurants and movie theaters, the number of new cases will rise. “Flattening the curve is just the first step; it’s not enough,” said Jeffrey Shaman, an infectious disease researcher at Columbia University. Covid won’t be contained until about 60 to 70 percent of the population becomes infected or has immunity, according to a new report co-written by Osterholm. About 5 to 15 percent of Americans are estimated to have been infected to date. That means we should be prepared for the virus to keep spreading for another 18 to 24 months, he said, with the virus either coming and going in different waves or continuing to simmer throughout the next year. Flat is good. Round, and down, is better. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly: Coronavirus Special Edition. Jealously watching my friend Chad Thomas get a haircut in Berlin today. Reach out with tips: rrayasam@politico.com or on Twitter at @renurayasam.

A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America’s biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. We are rapidly screening our vast global libraries to identify potential treatments and have 284 clinical trials underway. Explore our efforts.

On The Hill

Matt Wuerker

WELCOME BACK — The Senate held its first roll call vote today since March 25, Burgess Everett and Marianne LeVine write. Thirteen senators didn’t even show up in an institution where roughly half the members are 65 or older and are at heightened risk of the virus. Republican Sen. Chuck Grassley, the second oldest member of the Senate at 86, drove in from Iowa for the week’s proceedings. The House remains closed. While senators tried to get back to business, it was anything but a normal work day, said Marianne. Your host chatted with her on Slack after deadline to talk about the day on The Hill. The conversation has been edited for clarity. What precautions did senators take? Nearly every member wore a mask. They also were good about practicing social distancing. A few members did not wear them. But most did! The only exceptions were Republican Sens. Rand Paul and Ron Johnson. There were also some fun masks. Richard Shelby had a University of Alabama themed one. There weren't a ton of aides around. Each senator had a max of one from what I saw. How did it feel? Doing interviews while wearing a mask and keeping your distance can be challenging! It can be hard to hear what the senator's response is and I'm sure it's hard for them to hear our questions. The Hill is also known for large scrums, where reporters tend to crowd around senators. Those have luckily gone away with coronavirus. I think it was a little eerie. It felt really quiet. There were fewer reporters than we typically see and skeleton staff. What did they work on? Honestly there's not a lot that they did today, which is a big Dem criticism. They came in to confirm an inspector general nominee to the Nuclear Regulatory Commission. Democrats would argue this was not worth coming in, especially since the IG got confirmed 87-0, but Republicans say it’s their responsibility to be back in Washington and confirm executive or judicial nominees. Later in the week we can see some judicial nominees and some national security related agenda items. Democrats are saying that if the Senate comes back it should be coronavirus focused. And focused on oversight of the coronavirus legislation Congress has already passed. What about another round of coronavirus legislation? Senate Minority Leader Chuck Schumer called for more money for hospitals, hazard pay for essential workers, and help to state and local governments. Republicans want to see how the money that’s already been allocated is being spent. As far as Covid, I don't think we'll see anything on the floor anytime soon. I’M JUST A BILL — Top House Democrats today signaled they are forging ahead with the next sweeping coronavirus relief package, aiming to up the pressure on Republican leaders who have rejected Democratic priorities in previous aid bills, Heather Caygle and Sarah Ferris report. On a private call with members this afternoon, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her deputies sketched the outline of a trillion-dollar-plus package that would deliver aid to state and local governments — some on the brink of public service cuts — while shoring up safety net programs for the nation’s most vulnerable. Democrats privately admit the expansive legislation is more of a policy wishlist than anything, but say they hope to move before the Senate crafts legislation, laying down the starting point for bipartisan negotiations.

First In Nightly

NO EXECUTIVE SESSION — President Donald Trump continues to urge states to reopen their economies this spring, arguing, as he did Sunday night from the foot of Lincoln Memorial, that “a lot of people want to go back” to work. But with Covid-19 infections still rising in the D.C. metropolitan area and other major cities, Trump and his administration are struggling to bring back the one workforce they actually control — federal government employees, Daniel Lippman and Nolan McCaskill write. Early indicators suggest it’s likely to be months before federal workers are back in the office at normal, pre-coronavirus levels. The Trump administration issued general guidance for federal agencies on April 20, laying out how they can begin to reopen federal government offices and bring operations back to normal. The memo from the Office of Management and Budget and the Office of Personnel Management did not, however, set any timelines or mandates, leaving much of the discretion up to individual agencies.

From the Health Desk

UNTESTED TESTS — The Food and Drug Administration is walking back a widely criticized policy that allowed more than 100 coronavirus antibody tests on the market without agency review, David Lim writes. Manufacturers of antibody tests must now apply for emergency use authorization within 10 business days after their products hit the market, under a policy announced today. If a test does not meet the FDA's specificity and sensitivity criteria, its manufacturer must suspend distribution.

WEDNESDAY - A VIRTUAL INTERVIEW WITH FORMER BRITISH PRIME MINISTER TONY BLAIR: Join Global Translations author Ryan Heath on Wednesday at 12:30 p.m. EDT for a virtual discussion with former British Prime Minister Tony Blair about what partnerships are needed around the world to minimize the health and economic impacts of coronavirus, how to handle deepening inequalities, and what the global architecture of a new and more resilient “normal” should look like. Have questions? Submit yours by tweeting it to @POLITICOLive using #AskPOLITICO. REGISTER HERE TO PARTICIPATE.

Olympic silver-medalist rower Polly Swann trains at home during the coronavirus lockdown in Edinburgh, United Kingdom. | Jeff J. Mitchell/Getty Images

Around the Nation

ALL BETS ARE OFF — In February, Atlantic City was finally rebounding after years of financial turmoil. Then coronavirus hit . New Jersey Playbook author Matt Friedman explains why the coastal city could be one of the biggest economic disasters of the pandemic — and the harsh lessons for the rest of us — in the latest episode of POLITICO Dispatch.

Listen to the latest POLITICO Dispatch podcast

Ask The Audience

Our question for our readers this week: What routines and activities, if any, are you resuming this week? Use the form to send us your responses, and we plan to feature several later this week.

WEDNESDAY - HOW DO WE SAVE SMALL BUSINESSES? The coronavirus has crushed small businesses across the country. There’s been confusion and frustration stemming from the turbulent rollout of the Paycheck Protection Program. Join POLITICO chief economic correspondent Ben White on Wednesday at 9 a.m. EDT for a virtual discussion with Sen. Ben Cardin of Maryland, the ranking Democrat on the Senate Small Business Committee, about how banks have struggled with the Paycheck Protection Program's disbursement process, what the next round of stimulus funding must include to keep small businesses and local economies afloat, and the return of elected officials to the Capitol despite concerns about spurring an outbreak. Have questions? Submit yours by tweeting it to @POLITICOLive using #AskPOLITICO. REGISTER HERE.

The Global Fight

WHAT GLOBAL COMMUNITY? The U.S. and Russia were no-shows today at the European Union’s Covid-era telethon : A video call of world leaders pledging money to ensure everyone in the world gets a Covid-19 vaccine as quickly as possible, Ryan Heath writes. China sent only a mid-level representative, despite a growing international backlash over its handling of the coronavirus outbreak. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen optimistically called the $8 billion pledged during the call “a defining moment for the global community.” Given the trillions pledged for domestic stimulus, the defining moment was really the breakdown in global solidarity. International health organizations say the pledged amount is less than half of what is needed for global vaccine distribution. The biggest donor is Norway (population 5 million). And the U.S. government felt no need to justify its absence. A U.S. State Department official refused four times — when quizzed by reporters — to say why the U.S. did not participate in the event.

People receive communion during Mass today, the first day churches and other houses of worship are allowed to hold services again in Bavaria since March, in Munich, Germany. | Alexander Hassenstein/Getty Images

PUNCHLINES CARTOONING DURING #METOO — Matt Wuerker looks at the complex ways artists and online commenters are handling Tara Reade’s accusations against former Vice President Joe Biden in the latest episode of Punchlines. Matt also looks into conservative cartoonists’ depictions of the scandal and its comparisons to the Kavanaugh confirmation hearings. Nightly Number 70 percent The share of people surveyed across Africa who said food and water would be a problem if they were required to remain at home for 14 days, according to a study produced by the Partnership for Evidence-based Response to COVID-19, formed by members of the World Economic Forum COVID Action Platform. The data also found more than half would run out of money. Parting Words A MYSTERY IN WARSAW — Will Poland hold a presidential election on Sunday? No one really knows. The ruling party is mulling whether to shift the date of the vote. Former presidents and prime ministers are calling for a boycott. And foreign observers are increasingly alarmed at the disarray. With 683 dead from Covid-19 in Poland and 13,937 infected as of today, the usual preparations have not taken place, and concerns about safety have raised serious doubts. The government could declare a state of natural catastrophe, which delays any election until 90 days after such a state is lifted — but it has refused to take that step. Questions remain about the security of a postal ballot law rushed through parliament last month. "We're on the eve of a week that will determine whether Poland remains a free democratic country, or if it takes a big step in the direction of a dictatorship," Szymon Hołownia, an independent candidate, said Sunday.   A message from PhRMA: In these unprecedented times, America’s biopharmaceutical companies are coming together to achieve one shared goal: beating COVID-19. The investments we’ve made have prepared us to act swiftly: · Rapidly screening our vast global libraries to identify potential treatments and have 284 clinical trials underway · Dedicating our top scientists and using our investments in new technologies to speed the development of safe and effective vaccines · Sharing learnings from clinical trials in real time with governments and other companies to advance the development of additional therapies · Expanding our unique manufacturing capabilities and sharing available capacity to ramp up production once a successful medicine or vaccine is developed Explore our efforts.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam   Follow us

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