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European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen attends the 7th annual Copenhagen Democracy Summit at the Royal Danish Playhouse today. | Ida Marie Odgaard/Ritzau Scanpix/AFP via Getty Images | ‘HOW BIG WILL THE FAR-RIGHT GET’ — When voters across Europe head to the polls early next month for European Parliament elections, they’ll also be deciding on the future of the governing body. Across the continent, far-right political parties look ascendant. And if these parties claim as many seats as expected , European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen of the center-right European People’s Party might be forced into making an alliance with more conservative, eurosceptic parties — a development that could upend the European Union’s climate policies and position on the Ukraine war. The European Parliament is a legislative body that forms policy for the entire European Union, such as regulations for artificial intelligence, platform giants like Google and Facebook and foreign policy on the war in Ukraine. And ironically, many of the far-right parties in Europe are against the semi-unified system of policymaking that the European Parliament represents. If they manage to grab real power in the European Union, it will change Europe. Barbara Moens, the chief EU correspondent for POLITICO EU, said that far-right parties have typically been fractured in the European Parliament and haven’t been able to exert much power. That might change after the June elections, when the far-right looks to put more pressure on the traditional political parties. To learn more about the upcoming elections and the possible impact on the United States, Nightly spoke with Moens. The following has been edited and condensed for length. Set the stage for me. Far-right parties in Europe have been active in the past, but have never been poised to take power in Brussels within the structure of the European Union like they are now. What’s the state of play in Europe as it pertains to the rise of the far-right? When it comes to the European elections at the beginning of June, the biggest question is, ‘How big will the far-right get?’ For example, we had an election in the Netherlands, a relatively small country but still in the heart of Western Europe, where we had an unexpected far-right victory that sent shockwaves throughout Europe. We have elections coming up in France, where the far-right has been challenging the current president. And in a lot of countries, you have these far-right parties becoming more powerful and bigger and getting closer to power. So far at the European Union level, there is a very clear political agreement to keep out the far-right, but some parties are now asking themselves if they should be open to making political deals with the European Conservative Reformists. That party is not far-right, but they are conservative eurosceptics between the traditional parties and the far-right, and some parties like the Socialists, Greens and Liberals don’t want to govern with them. But the center-right — the European People’s Party of current president Ursula von der Leyen — is leaving that option open, anticipating that the further right parties could force her into that sort of position. That’s the tension we have going on right now in Europe. What are some of the root causes of the recent rise in far-right interest in Europe? One unifying idea is migration. Europe traditionally has had lots of challenges managing migration through the Mediterranean Sea from Africa. The discourse we have in Europe on migration has shifted right and the policy has shifted right. The question is ‘How much does that stop the far-right, or does it help the far-right if their discourse starts to dominate?’ Another similarity with the United States and Trump is the sense of global instability: the war in Ukraine, inflation, an energy crisis, the pandemic. Can the traditional politicians cope with that? Will my kids be able to do as well or better than I did? That sense of unease is motivating far-right politicians in the bloc. Von der Leyen recently announced that she would be open to making an alliance with more conservative parties in a bid to maintain her presidency. Is that a big shift for her? What are the implications of a possible alliance? The EPP and von der Leyen currently have the support of the Socialists and the Liberals in the European Parliament. That’s how she got her support for her first time as the president of the European Commission. This time around if you expect the rise of the far-right and more anticipated fracturing on the far-left, the center will be stretched even further. Then the question is, ‘If von der Leyen does not have enough support just from her own party, the Socialists and the Liberals, where does she look for support?’ Will she try to convince the Greens, for example, by being more active on climate policy, or will she look toward the more conservative right, the ECR? Right now, von der Leyen is saying, ‘I don’t know. It depends.’ The Socialists, the Liberals, the Greens are telling von der Leyen that now is the time to choose. What are the foreign policy implications of an EU that turns right? She will certainly step up on defense policy even more. Europe was going to do that anyway because of the war in Ukraine, but this will become even more of the case. She’ll be looking for a more assertive relationship with China, and to continue the very transatlantic policy with the Biden administration. When it comes to foreign policy, the question here is not what coalition will this be. The question is, ‘Will Trump be president of the U.S.?’ I think the foreign policy implications will be relatively modest. Trump has spoken disparagingly of the EU / US relationship, both during his first term and in his current presidential campaign. Are euro skeptical, far-right groups within the bloc emboldened by that message? There’s a lot of fragmentation within the far-right and the extreme right on how to handle the relationship with the U.S and Trump. It does influence the campaigns in the sense that because of all the uncertainty Europe is under right now, von der Leyen says it’s more important than ever for Europe to be a strong Europe, so they are not dependent on others for economic and national security. In that way, it does influence the campaign, but within the far-right, I don’t think these campaigns are using the specter of Trump against her. Only [Prime Minister of Hungary Viktor] Orban is using it. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at pschaefer@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @p_s_schaefer . THE ELECTIONS CLOSER TO HOME — Voters headed to the polls today in Nebraska, West Virginia and Maryland. The latter has a key Senate primary featuring a tough nomination fight on the Democratic side between Rep. David Trone and Angela Alsobrooks, the Prince George’s County executive. The winner of that contest will assuredly face former Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, a popular, centrist Republican who will try to increase Republicans’ odds at regaining the Senate in November by flipping an open seat in a blue state.
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| | A message from Safety Runs First: ADVANCING EQUINE SAFETY IN HORSERACING: Thoroughbred racing is applying unprecedented resources to protect the wellbeing of our horses. For the first time ever, all horses now run under the same safety and anti-doping rules, overseen by the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA). Advanced diagnostic technologies and big data add a new layer of protection. Combining uniform rules and hands-on care with the latest technologies ensures safety always runs first. To learn more visit SafetyRunsFirst.com. | | | | | LIAR, LIAR — Throughout his two days of testimony, Michael Cohen has generally been forthright about the lies he told on Donald Trump’s behalf. But under cross-examination from Todd Blanche , he seemed to struggle to use the word “lie” to describe his testimony in front of special counsel Robert Mueller’s team. Blanche pushed him repeatedly to acknowledge whether his false testimony to Mueller qualified as a “lie.” Cohen said he was “untruthful,” that he was “inaccurate.” But when Blanche asked him if he lied, Cohen hesitated at length. Finally, he broke the silence. “I’ll say it’s a lie.” Cohen acknowledged lying to Mueller’s team about multiple subjects even though he only pleaded guilty to lying about his conversations with Trump pertaining to efforts to build a Trump Tower Moscow. LOCK HIM UP — Michael Cohen and Todd Blanche spent a couple minutes dancing around the question of whether Cohen wants to see Trump convicted in this case . “Have you regularly commented on your podcast that you want President Trump convicted in this case?” Blanche asked. “I don’t specifically know if I used those words. But yes, I would like to see that,” Cohen responded. Then he added, “I would like to see accountability. It’s not for me. It’s for the jury and this court [to decide].” GETTING IN LINE — Speaker Mike Johnson, the most powerful evangelical Christian in American government, became the latest Republican to join Donald Trump’s entourage at his trial today over hush-money payments to a porn star. Johnson, a devout Southern Baptist who has publicly discussed his own efforts to avoid viewing online pornography, isn’t the first elected Republican to put aside moral qualms to reap the benefits of closeness with Trump. And like other Trump surrogates who have appeared at the Manhattan courthouse in recent days, Johnson, himself a lawyer by trade, wasn’t there to speak about Trump’s conduct, but to argue against the merits of the legal case. “I wanted to be here myself and call out what is a travesty of justice,” Johnson told reporters after calling a press conference outside the courthouse, while jurors inside heard testimony from Michael Cohen, the former Trump fixer turned state’s witness. As Johnson spoke, Cohen told jurors about the scramble for damage control in 2018 as news broke of a $130,000 payment to Stormy Daniels, who said she had sex with a married Trump years earlier.
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| | THE GOLD STANDARD OF POLICY REPORTING & INTELLIGENCE: POLITICO has more than 500 journalists delivering unrivaled reporting and illuminating the policy and regulatory landscape for those who need to know what’s next. Throughout the election and the legislative and regulatory pushes that will follow, POLITICO Pro is indispensable to those who need to make informed decisions fast. The Pro platform dives deeper into critical and quickly evolving sectors and industries—finance, defense, technology, healthcare, energy—equipping policymakers and those who shape legislation and regulation with essential news and intelligence from the world’s best politics and policy journalists.
Our newsroom is deeper, more experienced, and better sourced than any other—with teams embedded in the world’s most active legislative and regulatory power centers. From Brussels to Washington, New York to London, Sacramento to Paris, we bring subscribers inside the conversations that determine policy outcomes and the future of industries, providing insight that cannot be found anywhere else. Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY . | | | | | | | — House Democratic leaders urge caucus to oppose GOP’s Israel bill: Top House Democrats plan to oppose GOP legislation compelling the delivery to Israel of defense equipment already approved by Congress — and are actively urging a no vote in their caucus, teeing up a fight over an issue deeply dividing the party. The Republican legislation significantly escalates tension with the Biden White House over its planned holdup of certain weapons to Israel while the U.S. ally’s military prepares a push into the southern Gaza city of Rafah. Slated for consideration as soon as Wednesday, the GOP measure will force many Democrats to make a tough choice: Either rebuke their party leader’s approach to Israel or leave themselves open to GOP attacks. — Hunter Biden loses latest bid to delay trial even as lawyer pleads he isn’t ready: Hunter Biden lost one of his last attempts to delay the start of his criminal trial on gun charges today, with the judge overseeing the case unmoved by pleas that his legal team is not ready for the June 3 start date. Appearing in federal district court, Hunter Biden’s lawyer pushed to postpone the trial to September, stressing that the defense team has struggled to find expert witnesses who would be willing to help the president’s son, particularly regarding issues related to drug addiction and drug forensics. The lawyer, Abbe Lowell, said the current situation is unlike anything he has found himself in before. — The Biden administration doesn’t think Israel can fully win in Gaza: A top U.S. official’s recent statement that Israel is unlikely to achieve “total victory” in Gaza wasn’t a mistake or off-the-cuff remark — it’s how the Biden administration now assesses the situation on the ground . Four U.S. officials agreed Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell’s comment at a conference on Monday was a direct articulation of a stance administration officials have danced around for months. Every time a senior aide to President Joe Biden talked about how Israeli weapons can’t destroy Hamas’ ideology or described the need for a “day after” plan, they were obliquely making the point that Israel’s goal of an “absolute victory” is out of reach, the officials said.
| | TARIFF WARS — Joe Biden and Donald Trump are trying to one-up each other on tariffs , aiming to prove to Midwestern voters that they have the best plan to protect U.S. auto workers from Chinese competition, reports POLITICO. But their approaches would have wildly different effects — not just on domestic industry but also on the global economy. Biden today called for a quadrupling of tariffs on electric vehicles from China, along with higher duties on metals and other clean energy products — expanding on tariffs first instituted by Trump in 2018. Trump now wants to go much further, laying plans for tariffs on electric vehicles coming from the U.S.’s largest trading partner — Mexico — which could be far more disruptive. Fearing a coming flood of cheap Chinese cars produced south of the border, the former president and his advisers are planning to impose steep auto tariffs on Mexico if it does not agree to halt the shipment of Chinese-made EVs into the U.S., according to federal lawmakers and three former Trump administration officials with knowledge of his plans. WAITING IT OUT — Ken Griffin, one of the most prolific supporters of Republicans across the US, said he’s waiting to see who Donald Trump picks as his running mate before backing his candidacy for president , Bloomberg reports.
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Georgians rally to celebrate the country's European Union candidate status in Tbilisi on Dec. 15, 2023. | Giorgi Arjevanidze/AFP via Getty Images | FOREIGN FEARS — Georgia’s parliament approved controversial plans to brand hundreds of NGOs and media outlets as foreign agents today, paving the way for the bill to become law despite growing domestic dissent and condemnation from the U.S. and EU. In a vote, parliamentarians supported the proposals brought forward by the governing Georgian Dream party by 84 votes in favor and 30 against, after weeks of contentious debate that saw several brawls break out in the assembly chamber and one senior lawmaker assaulted. Crowds gathered outside the graffiti-daubed parliament building with whistles, vuvuzelas and even hitting pots and pans in a bid to make themselves heard by the lawmakers inside. Under the new rules, civil society groups receiving more than 20 percent of their income from abroad will be required to register as “organizations serving the interests of a foreign power,” a label that critics fear will be used to silence anti-corruption campaigners and others critical of the government. Georgian President Salome Zourabichvili has vowed not to sign the bill as part of a growing rift with the ruling party, but her veto can be overridden by a simple majority in parliament, paving the way for it to pass into effect in the coming weeks. MANHUNT IN MOTION — Several hundred police officers were deployed on a massive manhunt in France today after gunmen ambushed a police van to free an inmate , killing two prison guards. The morning attack took place at a freeway toll in northern France. The inmate, a drug dealer known as “The Fly,” was being moved from a prison to a court in Normandy, a trip of about 60 kilometers, according to French media reports. Paris prosecutor Laure Beccuau identified the escaped inmate as Mohamed Amra, who had been convicted on several counts and was “closely watched.”
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| | | LA LA LAND — A one-week variety show focused on specific Los Angeles problems like “coyotes” and the “paranormal” that has a host who asks callers what kind of car they drive sounds like something that belongs on public access television. But thanks to comedian John Mulaney’s specific and appealing blend of comedy, the show in question, “Everybody’s in L.A.,” was a big hit for Netflix . How did Mulaney blend stand-up from the character Waingro from the 1995 crime thriller Heat with discussions with earthquake experts with comedy from legends like Jerry Seinfeld and David Letterman? Read Israel Daramola’s review and explanation of how it all came together in Defector.
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On this date in 2011: Dominique Strauss-Kahn, the leader of the International Monetary Fund and a then-possible candidate for president of France, was pulled from an airplane moments before he was meant to fly to Paris and was questioned by police in connection with the sexual assault of a hotel maid. | Craig Ruttle/AP | Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here .
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| | A message from Safety Runs First: BRINGING RACING INTO THE 21ST CENTURY: Three years ago, Congress created the Horseracing Integrity and Safety Authority (HISA) to enhance the safety and integrity of Thoroughbred racing. Under HISA, for the first time in the sport’s 200-year history, every horse across the country is now running under the same safety and anti-doping rules. In addition, HISA is partnering with leading technology providers, including AWS and Palantir, to create new data-enabled tools to assist veterinary screenings. These tools add a new layer of protection by helping identify at-risk horses before they reach the starting gate.
The industry is also investing in the latest technologies for diagnostic imaging and wearable biometric devices. Combining enhanced, uniform rules, data analytics and cutting-edge technologies is improving safety outcomes and enhancing the ecosystems of care at every track nationwide, ensuring safety always runs first. To learn more visit SafetyRunsFirst.com. | | | | |
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