LAST STAND — Chris Christie needs a strong showing in New Hampshire. Nikki Haley is standing in his way. Until recently, it hasn’t been much of an issue. But Haley’s surge in the polls — particularly in New Hampshire — suddenly makes her a serious threat to Christie’s prospects, adding a level of strategic intrigue to tonight’s Republican primary debate in Alabama. In past debates, the two former governors functioned as near-allies on the stage, operating as policy realists, united in their disdain for bomb-throwing foe Vivek Ramaswamy. Their attacks were directed toward the other candidates. They had similar answers on increasing the age eligibility of Social Security and leaving abortion decisions in the hands of state governments. When asked in one recent debate about the question of whether America should continue to fund Ukraine, Christie not only backed up Haley’s position, he highlighted her expertise as a former U.N. ambassador. “The fact is, this alliance is not just with Russia and China — Governor Haley knows this, Iran is in the middle of this as well and so is North Korea. They are all working to support Russia right now,” Christie said in his answer, underscoring a point Haley outlined less than a minute before about an “unholy alliance.” In the third debate, viewers got an especially revealing glimpse at the Christie-Haley alliance: Their side-by-side placement on the stage made it easy to catch one of them nodding in agreement while the other spoke.
DON'T BELIEVE THE POLLS! NO ONE WITH CALLER ID ANSWERS THEIR PHONES! NIKKI HALEY IS A LOSER, PROMOTED BY DIRTY ENERGY KOCH - ANOTHER BOUGHT & PAID FOR CANDIDATE! But the former New Jersey governor is staking his campaign on New Hampshire, where he crashed and burned in 2016. He likely needs a top-two finish to have any shot at moving forward next year. Right now, the 538 polling average shows him in third place, trailing Haley but ahead of Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis. As elsewhere, former President Donald Trump remains far and away the frontrunner in the state. All of this means that, in order to emerge as the alternative to Trump and get the one-on-one match-up he craves, Christie has to go through Haley. So he’s recently started ramping up the attacks on her on the campaign trail. Dire warnings about nominating Trump for a third time still feature in Christie’s stump speeches, as do the knocks about Trump peddling 2020 election fraud theories and not finishing the southern border wall. But in the weeks since the Nov. 8 debate, his speeches have turned primarily into vehicles for Christie to draw sharp contrasts with Haley. Christie, for instance, seized on Haley’s recent remark in Iowa that she would have signed a six-week abortion ban if it hit her desk when she was still governor of South Carolina. “You cannot be a truth-teller and say one version of the truth in Iowa when you’re in front of a very conservative group, and then when you’re here in New Hampshire, with a libertarian audience, a ‘live free or die’ audience, you have a different answer that you’ll think they’ll like,” Christie told around 100 people crammed into a restaurant event space in Concord last week. Christie’s stump-speech revamp reflects the conundrum his campaign faces: Christie is rising in polls of likely GOP primary voters in the Granite State, but so is Haley, a rival whom he clearly respects. While they have a longstanding relationship that dates back to when both served as governors together, she stands directly in his path. Which brings us to tonight — the fourth debate that could be Christie’s last. He can continue the alliance and hope that voters find him a more compelling choice. Or he can follow the more traditional campaign path, which is to attempt to tear Haley down. But it comes with a risk: damaging her future chances of knocking off Trump, if the anti-Trump vote ends up consolidating around her. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at mmccarthy@politico.com and lkashinsky@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reporter_Mia and @lisakashinsky .
|