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FOCUS: James Stavridis | Putin Will Begin to Carpet-Bomb Ukraine Unless the West Acts
30 November 22
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Zelenskyy is winning the land war, but Putin has the advantage in the air war, writes James Stavridis
On land, the arrival of a wet, rainy winter will lead to a decrease in operations. Both Russia and Ukraine need to rest and reinforce their troops, as well as repair equipment. A return to full-blown combat operations isn’t likely until late winter when the ground freezes, presenting a better opportunity for the heaviest equipment.
Russia will particularly struggle to fill the holes in its forward combat operations, thanks to low motivation and a failing draft. As 200,000-300,000 young men — under threat of conscription — have departed Russia for sanctuary in bordering nations, Russian president Vladimir Putin has resorted to conscripting criminals, the homeless, and drunks rounded up in bars. Ukraine faces challenges too, but not of motivation — its citizens, fighting an existential war, are mighty motivated. The Ukrainian challenge stems from having a far smaller population — only about a third of Russia’s.
Ukraine will also have a major advantage in supplies. The West will continue to provide not only the high-tech weapons that receive most of the publicity but also the bread and butter of infantry operations: guns, mortars, ammunition, fuel, trucks, night-vision devices, cold weather gear, portable stoves, point-to-point communications equipment.
But the challenge in the land war will be a classic military fact of the battlefield: Advantage in ground war accrues to the defensive side. Military theory says you need a 3:1 advantage on offence to conquer a well-dug in defence. Ironically, as the Ukrainians succeed in taking back big chunks of previously conquered territory, the Russian defensive positions compress and become harder to overrun. But given Ukrainian advantages in materiel and motivation, I’d rather have their hand of cards.
War in the sky
So the land war advantage goes to the Ukrainians, although the fighting will be hard. But what about the other war, the one in the sky?
In the air war over Ukraine, the advantage accrues to the Russians. First and foremost, they have a vastly larger air force, one that has seen significant combat experience in Syria.
Russian air forces routinely pounded Syrian cities into dust, dropping indiscriminate “dumb bombs” by the thousands, seeking to simply destroy any support for the rebels fighting Putin’s ally Bashar al-Assad.
Sadly, this carpet bombing proved very effective, and Putin seems inclined to try and copy it in Ukraine. The new general appointed to oversee the Ukraine war is the leader of Russia’s air force, a man known for his Syrian atrocities. The strategy is simple: Grind down the Ukrainian electric grid and water distribution system to break the public’s morale by literally freezing them out of their increasingly uninhabitable homes.
While Putin’s stocks of precision-guided missiles are rapidly depleting (witness his turning to Iran for high-tech weapons), he still has plenty of dumb bombs, stockpiled for decades going back to the Cold War.
As the reality of his approach sinks in, the West must increase its support to Ukrainian air-defense efforts. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy, of course, desires a Nato no-fly zone above all else. He often implores the West to “close the skies” of his nation. More likely, he will receive increased numbers of high-end air-to-surface missile systems like the superb Iron Dome (developed jointly by the US and Israel), Nato Patriot batteries (that are also going along the Polish border), and possibly tactical fighters.
Leaders in Nato capitals are also revisiting an idea that was discarded in the early days of the war: providing either MiG-29 Soviet-era fighters (the Poles have offered to transfer them to the Ukrainians) or even US surplus F-16s, a simple-to-learn multi-role fighter. Without such measures, the air war will continue to go in favour of Putin.
With a land war favouring Ukraine and a brutal air war favouring Russia, the West’s best option will be to significantly increase its assistance to Ukraine on the air war side of the conflict.
Giving the Ukrainians more tools to close their own skies may be the key to forcing the Russians to ultimately negotiate, perhaps as soon as early spring, given the success Zelenskyy and his military have achieved on the ground.
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RSN: Norman Solomon | Hype About Democrats Passing the Torch: Don’t Get Fooled Again
30 November 22
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President John Kennedy reached heights of inaugural oratory when he declared that “the torch has been passed to a new generation of Americans.” Three decades later, when Bill Clinton won the presidency, a Newsweek headline proclaimed “THE TORCH PASSES.” The article underneath glorified “a film clip that made its way into a widely seen campaign ad: a beaming, 16-year-old Bill Clinton on a sun-drenched White House lawn, shaking the hand of his and his generation’s idol, John F. Kennedy.”
Weeks later, when Time magazine named Clinton “Man of the Year,” its cover story carried the headline “THE TORCH IS PASSED.”
The Clinton presidency went on to carry the torch for corporate-friendly measures. The NAFTA trade pact destroyed many well-paying union jobs; “welfare reform” harmed poor women and their families; a landmark crime law fueled mass incarceration; Wall Street deregulation led to the financial meltdown of 2007-2008.
Now, the top of the Democratic Party is passing torches on Capitol Hill. When Nancy Pelosi announced two weeks ago that she will no longer lead House Democrats, she said: “The hour has come for a new generation to lead.” But in what direction?
Pelosi quickly endorsed Rep. Hakeem Jeffries to replace her as leader. NBC News offered the common media frame: “Pelosi made history as the first female speaker of the House, while Jeffries, the current Democratic Caucus chairman, would become the first Black leader of a congressional caucus and highest-ranking Black lawmaker on Capitol Hill.”
You can count on much of the mass media to shower the 52-year-old Jeffries with accolades, largely supplied by fellow Democrats. But, overall, a closer look reveals a problematic record.
Early on, before becoming a New York state legislator, Jeffries worked for years as a corporate lawyer. In Congress – while he has taken a few progressive positions like cosponsoring Medicare for All and voting to cut 10 percent of the military budget – his emphasis has been in sync with the party establishment.
“I’m a Black progressive Democrat concerned with addressing racial and social and economic injustice with the fierce urgency of now,” Jeffries told The Atlantic in August 2021. But during the same interview, Jeffries added: “There will never be a moment where I bend the knee to hard-left democratic socialism.” (Ironically, Jeffries was echoing the “fierce urgency of now” phrase from Martin Luther King Jr., who was a democratic socialist.)
Jeffries likes to jab leftward. In 2016, he called Bernie Sanders a “gun-loving socialist with zero foreign-policy experience.” A 2018 profile in The Economist – titled “High Hopes for Hakeem Jeffries” – concluded that he “is nearly as moderate as a safe-seat Democrat gets.” The article pointed out: "Though he supports the principle of universal healthcare coverage, he speaks of ‘the importance of market forces and getting things done in a responsible fashion.’ Quoting Ronald Reagan approvingly, he suggests this means promoting a flourishing private sector outside the ‘legitimate functions’ of government."
Congressman Jeffries takes umbrage at negative press portrayals to such an extent that his office tries to quash critical assessments. When I wrote in a HuffPost piece in January 2019 that “Jeffries has been more attentive to serving corporate power than the interests of voters in his Brooklyn district,” the response was swift and angry. Jeffries’s communications director and senior advisor at the time, Michael Hardaway, fired off emails to HuffPost, claiming that my characterization was “factually inaccurate and easily disproven.” Despite the escalating fulminations, the HuffPost editor explained that he saw “no reason to correct or update the piece.”
Jeffries has not been a sponsor of the Green New Deal (which Pelosi famously denigrated in 2019: “The green dream or whatever they call it, nobody knows what it is, but they’re for it, right?”). He also has not cosponsored the Green New Deal for Cities Act.
During the latest election cycle, Jeffries joined forces with one of the most corporate and vitriolic anti-progressive Democrats in the House, Josh Gottheimer, to form Team Blue PAC. Its priority – to protect the party’s incumbents against Squad-like primary challengers – was summed up last winter in a Rolling Stone headline over an article about Jeffries’s initiative: “Top House Democrat Unveils Plan to Beat Back Progressive Rebellion.”
Last year, The American Prospect reported, Jeffries was conspicuously absent from efforts to support public housing in his home city. “When all [other] New York City House Democrats sent a letter to Pelosi urging her to protect all $80 billion for public housing in the BBB [Build Back Better bill], Jeffries was the only member not to sign that missive, especially surprising given that New York Dems are known to act as a bloc.”
Jeffries is a member of the Congressional Progressive Caucus, the magazine noted, but that affiliation should not be taken at face value: “Jeffries is a mute member of the CPC, the largest caucus in the party, but has recently chosen to ally himself with its more conservative factions. And while the party’s moderate wing has moved left on everything from foreign policy to social welfare, Jeffries has not moved with it.”
In fact, Hakeem Jeffries is thoroughly corporate, As The Intercept reported four years ago, after he won a close race against Rep. Barbara Lee to become chair of the House Democratic Caucus, “Jeffries is heavily backed by big money and corporate PACs. Less than 2 percent of his fundraising comes from small donors, who contribute less than $200, according to Federal Election Commission records.”
While in his fourth term, “Jeffries was the leading congressional recipient of hedge fund money in 2020,” The American Prospect reported last year. “He banked $1.1 million from the financial sector, real estate interests, and insurance industry in the 2019–2020 cycle. Everyone from JPMorgan Chase to Goldman Sachs to Blackstone contributed. Zimmer Partners, a hedge fund, is one of Jeffries’s top donors in 2021. From the outset, he has governed with those interests at heart. While Democrats were reconsidering their coziness with Wall Street, he broke ranks to vote with the financial services world, including on a high-profile measure literally written by Citigroup lobbyists in 2013 that killed the Dodd-Frank ‘swaps push-out’ rule, allowing banks to engage in risky trades backed by a potential taxpayer-funded bailout.”
Thirty years younger than the outgoing speaker, Jeffries is a fitting symbol of media eagerness to herald generational change for Democrats in Congress. But investigative journalist Alexander Sammon has provided an apt sum-up: “Barely in his fifties, Jeffries is young numerically, but aligned with an older mode of Democratic politics, and has repeatedly distanced himself from the younger crop of Democrats that is almost categorically more progressive (and more popular). He’s made a reputation for himself as the party’s future by becoming a foremost representative of its past.”
When a torch passes, we might be glad to “meet the new boss.” But we should discard illusions. That way, hopefully, we don’t get fooled again.
Norman Solomon is the national director of RootsAction.org and the executive director of the Institute for Public Accuracy. He is the author of a dozen books including War Made Easy. His next book, War Made Invisible: How America Hides the Human Toll of Its Military Machine, will be published in Spring 2023 by The New Press.
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LPTV: We’re Speaking – November 30, 2022 | Guest: Victor Shi
LPTV: We’re Speaking – November 30, 2022 | Guest: Victor Shi
Court forces Trump's 1/6 consigliere to face the music
Today's Top Stories:
Trump chief of staff Mark Meadows ordered by South Carolina’s Supreme Court to testify in Georgia election probe
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Take Action: Expel the congressmen who tried to get Trump pardons for their role in Jan. 6th!
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Evergreen Action: A Trump-approved oil corporation's plan will pillage the Alaskan wilderness, pollute indigenous lands, and pump enough carbon into the atmosphere to undo all the progress Biden's green infrastructure investments will make. But President Biden can stop it without support from Congress!
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Take Action: Don't let Republicans starve critical investments in children and healthcare!
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Take Action: Tell Elon Musk to keep Trump off of Twitter for good!
Senate passes bill to protect same-sex and interracial marriage over GOP opposition
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RNC commissions "review" of party tactics after disastrous midterm
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Top DeSantis aides added in migrant flight lawsuit
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US gun death rates hit highest levels in decades
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Today’s Action: Youth phone bank for Sen. Raphael Warnock!
We owe our historic midterm Senate hold to the youth vote. So many young people got out the vote this year, in fact, that it was the second highest youth vote in thirty years. It made Republicans so mad that some of them even started pushing to raise the voting age, so yeah— they’re a big deal. We need as many progressives in office as possible to preserve the rights we’ve been fighting so hard for — reproductive rights, LGBTQ+ rights, gun-safety initiatives, justice reform, etc. Young people are a hugely important piece of the puzzle.
That’s why it’s as important for young people to get involved in getting out the vote as they are in voting. Swing Left is hosting a youth-centered phone banking event TONIGHT from 6-8pm EST for the Georgia run-off.
Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock will face the historically despicable Herschel Walker in the runoff NEXT WEEK. It’s no secret that one more seat in the Senate could mean the difference between advancing our progressive agenda or watching Joe Manchin obstruct and disrupt any further progress over the next two years, so reach out to the young progressives in your life and tell them to join the call. They don’t have to be a seasoned professional or a registered voter in Georgia to join this fight — they just need to be ready to channel the late, great John Lewis and stir up some “good trouble.”
PS — Please don't forget to sign the petition to demand CBS News fire Trump's lying ex-chief of staff, and be sure to follow us on Twitter, Facebook, and Instagram.
@advocacy | 1002 Hull St., Louisville, KY 40204
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Hear what Herschel Walker said about his residency
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POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: ‘Tis the season for (policy) wish lists
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