POLITICO Nightly: The next 63 days

By Charlie Mahtesian and Calder McHugh Supporters cheer as Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally on Aug. 29 in Savannah, Georgia. | Win McNamee/Getty Images NINE WEEK COUNTDOWN — The hour is later than you think. While in some ways it feels like the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump just started, the reality is that it’s nearly over. North Carolina begins mailing out absentee ballots this week. Early voting begins in Pennsylvania in two weeks. Just 63 days remain until Election Day. At the beginning of the post-Labor Day homestretch, the race is incredibly tight — Harris leads in national polls by between 2 and 4 percentage points , on average. The election, of course, is not decided by a national vote. The outcome will be determined in seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And there, the contest is exceptionally close as well. Harris holds a narrow lead in six of the seven battlegrounds — all but North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages in those states. But the margin between the candidates is so slim that it’s under one percentage point in more than half of those states. At the moment at least, this is a margin of error contest wrapped in a photo-finish inside a dead heat. For Democrats, the outlook is better than at any other point in the 2024 campaign. Before dropping out, Biden trailed in every battleground state. Even his own campaign conceded that his path back to the White House had narrowed to a harrowing ride through the Rust Belt, with no room for error. Today, Harris has two plausible routes, one through the Rust Belt and another through the Sun Belt. She’s even in striking distance of winning North Carolina, which would all but doom Trump’s chances. Republicans also have reason for hope. Their nominee for president has weathered 88 alleged criminal offenses across four criminal cases and has been found guilty of 34. He still owes hundreds of millions of dollars in civil penalties to E. Jean Carroll and New York state. Despite all that, he remains essentially tied in the polls. The GOP base remains wildly enthusiastic about voting for Trump. While Democratic enthusiasm has spiked in the aftermath of Harris’ ascension to the party nomination, Republican enthusiasm for Trump has kept pace — and even shows signs of improvement. According to an early August Pew Research Center survey , 72 percent of Trump supporters said they are extremely motivated to vote, up from 63 percent in July. In that same poll, 70 percent of Harris supporters said they are extremely motivated to vote. Trump supporters have another reason to believe: polls have underestimated the level of support for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. It’s been a campaign that has already witnessed a lifetime’s worth of October Surprises — indictments, convictions, an assassination attempt, a catastrophic debate performance, the withdrawal of a president from a reelection bid — and yet there are still some potentially catalytic moments to come. A presidential debate between Trump and Harris is slated to take place just one week from today, on Sept. 10, hosted by ABC News. The two camps remain held up on the rules — including whether the microphones will be hot . Boiled down to its essence, the mic fight is a Harris campaign bet that an unmuted Trump is an unmoored Trump, easily baited into a spectacular act of self-immolation. Throughout the campaign thus far, Harris has stayed relentlessly on message while Trump has swung wildly at her identity ; that’s a distinction that the vice president’s campaign is hoping they can show the American public in miniature next week. A week after the showdown before a national audience, the first of three significant economic moments will arrive — occasions that could go a long way toward determining how Americans feel about the economy, and bolstering or undermining the candidates’ arguments. On Sept. 17-18, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its September meeting, where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to recommend an interest rate cut. A 25 basis point cut is likely already priced in, but if Powell recommends a larger cut of 50 basis points — unlikely but not out of the question — it could spur optimism in the market about inflation, but also could mean that the Fed sees the labor market as particularly weak. In October and early November, we’ll get final, pre-election looks at both the state of inflation and the strength of the job market, which will color the closing arguments in an election where inflation and the economy are the number one issue for many voters. On Oct. 10, the final Consumer Price Index — the most important measure of inflation — before the election will be released. Then, three weeks later on Nov. 1, just four days before voters go to the polls, the final jobs report will be released. Harris is trying to sell voters on an economy where inflation is under control and the job market remains robust. But if one of these indicators suggests otherwise right before Nov. 5, Republicans will have a key data point to leverage in their case against Biden-Harris economic policies. Polls suggest Harris is closing the gap on Trump regarding how much voters trust each candidate to handle the economy. But as she claims more credit for the policies of the Biden administration, these three dates become essential as voters build their impression of how she might handle economic issues as president. With just over two months to go, the race looks tighter than any in recent memory. And while the polls rarely change dramatically between Labor Day and Election Day, the fact that the contest is so close means that even a small atmospheric change could decide who will be the next president. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh . What'd I Miss? — Supreme Court declines to block Biden family planning rules in Oklahoma: The U.S. Supreme Court today rejected Oklahoma’s bid to claw back millions in federal family planning grants that the Biden administration had rescinded over the state’s refusal to provide information about abortion to patients who request it. Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch dissented, saying they would have granted the state’s application for relief. The move continues the court’s trend since its conservative majority overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 to sidestep major abortion questions, including narrow, procedural decisions this past term on abortion pills and emergency abortions that avoided the merits of both cases. — Former New York official accused of acting as a Chinese government agent: A former New York state official who worked under Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and her predecessor ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo was accused of trading on her connections to act as an undisclosed agent of the Chinese government , according to a sweeping federal indictment unsealed today. Linda Sun, 41, was accused of using her influence as a top aide to both governors to shape state policy toward China and Taiwan, federal prosecutors alleged. MONGOLIA: ENERGY CAPTIVE! — Sorry not sorry, says Mongolia after failure to arrest Putin: That’s the message from Mongolia’s government after it failed on Monday to execute an international arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin as he landed in the country for an official visit. A Mongolian government spokesperson said that the country finds itself in a position of energy dependence , rendering it difficult to handcuff Putin on the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant over war crimes in Ukraine. “Mongolia imports 95% of its petroleum products and over 20% of electricity from our immediate neighborhood, which have previously suffered interruption for technical reasons. This supply is critical to ensure our existence and that of our people,” the spokesperson said. Nightly Road to 2024 SLOW COUNTING — Election officials in Pennsylvania are warning that because of inaction in Harrisburg, the swing state’s votes may again take days to count , creating a window for bad actors to sow distrust in the results, writes the Philadelphia Inquirer. County election officials have been petitioning state lawmakers to update the state’s election code for years. They’ve also persistently asked the General Assembly to clarify questions surrounding which mail ballots can and cannot be counted to address voting rights litigation that has played out in Pennsylvania since no-excuse mail voting was authorized in 2019. But as November approaches, little has changed since 2020 — when former President Donald Trump used the slow counting process to promote unfounded claims of voter fraud in the wake of his defeat. SWAN SONG — A federal judge today ordered former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign to stop using the song “Hold On, I’m Coming,” by Isaac Hayes, at campaign events in response to a lawsuit from the artist’s estate, reports The New York Times. The judge, Thomas Thrash Jr. of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Georgia, issued a temporary injunction blocking further use of the song “without proper license.” However, Judge Thrash did not grant the estate’s request to order Trump’s campaign to take down recordings of past events in which it had used the song. TOO LATE NOW — A Michigan judge ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must remain on the November presidential ballot , dealing a blow to his crusade to strategically remove his ticket from the battleground state, reports The Associated Press. Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump in August. Since then, he has sought to withdraw his name in states — like Michigan — where the race could be close. Kennedy filed a lawsuit Friday in Michigan’s Court of Claims against Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, in an effort to withdraw his name. Michigan’s election officials had previously rejected Kennedy’s notice of withdrawal. AROUND THE WORLD A Ukrainian firefighter talks on the radio while he works to extinguish the fire on the site of an electrical substation that was hit by a Russian strike in Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, Monday, Sept. 2, 2024. | Alex Babenko/AP MAJOR BLAST — Russian forces struck buildings including a hospital with two ballistic missiles in the city of Poltava today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. “One of the buildings of the Institute of Communications was partially destroyed. A nearby hospital building was also hit. People found themselves under the rubble. Many were saved ... Unfortunately, many died,” Zelenskyy said in a video statement. As of early this evening, 51 people were confirmed dead and more than 200 injured, the prosecutor’s office said. More people may be trapped under the rubble, the president added. The rescue operation is ongoing. Poltava Communications Institute — a military university to prepare officers — put a mourning candle image on its Facebook page, issuing no statement. Zelenskyy said an investigation will take place to understand how the attack could happen and kill so many. STILL SEARCHING — Rife conjecture, lengthy talks and a constantly changing list of possible candidates have marked French President Emmanuel Macron’s latest push to break the deadlock that has gripped France since snap elections this summer delivered a hung parliament. As the French returned to work and school on Monday, their country appeared no closer to having a government than it did before the Olympics. The day began with Bernard Cazeneuve as the apparent front-runner, but the former prime minister was out of contention after lunch. Then, it was rumored that Macron was in talks to appoint a little-known top civil servant, Thierry Beaudet, to the post. Overnight, conservative heavyweight Xavier Bertrand replaced Beaudet as the new favorite. Macron today held talks with conservative leaders including Senate leader Gérard Larcher and conservative parliamentary leader Laurent Wauquiez, according to several people with knowledge of the talks who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, seemingly solidifying Bertrand’s status as likely nominee. But by this afternoon, Bertrand was already facing serious objections to his appointment. The last 36 hours have baffled even seasoned political observers, and inspired no shortage of mocking memes and jokes online. French journalist Diane de Fortanier tweeted a mock graph of the rise and fall of potential candidates, while former Elysée official Gaspard Gantzer poked fun at Macron’s dithering and endless consultations — joking he’d next be meeting with French prime ministers, winners at the Césars and Tour de France champions. Even outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal couldn’t escape the frenzy during a visit to a school in the Paris region on Monday, when he got a grilling by pupils over who the next prime minister will be and whether he was still friends with the French president. Nightly Number Nearly $25 million The amount of money that Kamala Harris’ campaign and the Democratic National Committee said they are sending to support down-ballot Democrats — an earlier investment and far more money than the top of the ticket has sent in past election years. RADAR SWEEP SHARING IS CARING — In Austria, wealth inequality is a serious problem — the richest one percent owns half of the European country’s wealth. One member of the 1 percent wants to figure out how to solve the problem — with the help of the 99 percent. The heiress and philanthropist Marlene Engelhorn convened a group of 50 Austrians selected by lottery to discuss how to redistribute €25 million ($27.6 million) — and then do so, without outside influence. In The New Yorker, Joshua Yaffa reports from the meetings of the Austrians selected to complete this task and considers their solutions to the problem. Parting Image On this date in 1984: Then-Democratic presidential candidate Walter Mondale, vice-presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro and New York's Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo wave to New Yorkers as they march in the Labor Day parade in Manhattan. | Lana Harris/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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POLITICO Nightly: How the Kremlin keeps dodging tough sanctions

 

BY GABRIEL GAVIN Presented by the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition A Russian cargo ship arrives at the port of Dunkirk in northern France on March 20, 2023. | Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images POWER PLAY — Smoke rose over Kyiv on Saturday as the city was hit with the largest drone strike since the start of the full-scale invasion , killing five and forcing Ukrainian civilians to huddle together in bomb shelters for more than six hours. While Russia rains down death in Eastern Europe, across the other side of the continent, EU nations are still divided over just how much they want to go after the Kremlin’s energy exports. The bloc’s long-awaited package of new sanctions is the twelfth it will have imposed on Russia in the past year and a half. A draft document seen by POLITICO revealed that key demands from Kyiv — lowering the $60 oil price cap to $30 per barrel, banning fuel refined from Russian oil in third countries , and ending the purchase of Moscow’s nuclear fuel — have struggled to find consensus in Brussels. That’s creating headaches in Washington, which wants its partners to move faster on cutting off Moscow’s flow of cash, but is loath to be seen to intervene politically on the other side of the Atlantic. Now, the State Department is taking unprecedented steps that could have a profound impact for European firms still doing business in Russia. Instead of targeting flagship exports like oil and gas, Ukraine’s European allies will focus on restricting trade in diamonds, iron and copper, which are of relatively little value to the Russian state. When it comes to energy, “we’ve reached the capacity of what we can do without shooting [ourselves] in the foot and harming our competitiveness," one EU diplomat claimed. The biggest omission is liquefied natural gas, the all-important fossil fuel that netted President Vladimir Putin’s regime an estimated $6.6 billion in sales in the EU this year alone. Countries like Spain and Belgium have actually even boosted their LNG imports by a massive 50 percent in 2023, compared to 2022. Meanwhile, hopes that Europe could agree to shut the door on Russia’s atomic energy sector given its dangerous occupation of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant — the continent’s largest — have failed to materialize. Hungary is expanding one of its own atomic power stations with Moscow’s help and populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has vowed to veto any sanctions that would hurt the industry, despite criticism from EU and Ukrainian officials alike. Unanimous support from all 27 member states is needed to impose new restrictions, meaning talks on the subject are now deadlocked. The standoff creates a challenge for Washington, which is trying to keep Ukraine’s allies united and maintain pressure on Russia’s economy. Earlier this month, the Biden administration took the unprecedented step of slapping sanctions on a major LNG project in Russia’s frozen Arctic region , despite the fact that European companies are actively involved in the project. Now, France’s TotalEnergies could have to decide whether to give up their stake or run the risk of serious consequences from the Treasury Department. It’s a surprise move that may indicate the U.S. is prepared to use its global influence while Europe seemingly drags its feet. Washington has also stepped well beyond the EU in sanctioning Alexey Miller , the CEO of state energy giant Gazprom, and has imposed restrictions on several senior Russian nuclear officials. While the Russian budget is facing a multibillion-dollar black hole as a result of the sanctions that have already been imposed, Putin is betting that he can hold the system together long enough for Western support for Ukraine to wane. Whether he is right or not depends on what European and American politicians do next — and, if they fail, they could find themselves worrying about more than the energy bill. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin .   A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition: Some politicians are trying to defund data security by passing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill, serving your private financial data to hackers on a silver platter. But you can stop them. Learn more and tell Congress to stop the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.   WHAT'D I MISS? — House GOP denies Hunter Biden demand on impeachment inquiry testimony: Hunter Biden’s legal team demanded that he be allowed to testify publicly in response to a House GOP subpoena. Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) quickly shot it down . A Biden lawyer sent a letter to the House Oversight Chair this morning, saying the president’s son would appear publicly before the committee on Dec. 13. That ran counter to a stipulation of the subpoena, which called for a private deposition with lawmakers and aides. “A public proceeding would prevent selective leaks, manipulated transcripts, doctored exhibits, or one-sided press statements,” Abbe Lowell, Hunter Biden’s attorney, wrote in the letter. He added that they were also amenable to any other date next month the two sides could agree on. Comer denied the request in a statement today, saying it “won’t stand with House Republicans.” — Jewish groups sue University of California over ‘unchecked’ antisemitism: Jewish groups are suing the University of California system, UC Berkeley and its leaders over what they are calling a “longstanding, unchecked spread of anti-Semitism.” The 36-page lawsuit, filed today by the Brandeis Center and Jewish Americans for Fairness in Education, argues that Berkeley and its law school’s “inaction” on discrimination against Jewish students has led to a spread of antisemitism, and violence and harassment against them. Demonstrations and incidents on campus following the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel serve as examples of the discrimination, according to the complaint. — Democrat starts official clock for Santos expulsion vote: A fierce Democratic critic of Rep. George Santos has officially triggered another push to expel him — the most serious threat against the indicted lawmaker to date. The privileged motion introduced by Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) means the House must vote on expulsion within two legislative days. That’s almost exactly two weeks after the release of a damning bipartisan House Ethics Committee report that found “sufficient evidence” of Santos’ criminal wrongdoing.   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here .     NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 CAN’T QUIT X — The Biden campaign and White House increasingly see the site formerly known as Twitter as a sewer. They just can’t quite leave the mess alone , writes POLITICO.. They say they no longer see the platform as a place where they can actually build useful voter relations or even engage in level political discourse. But even as they trash the site, they aren’t ready to quit it either. Aides continue to tweet — as does the president. They debated, internally, the merits of leaving the platform, but determined it would be a mistake to leave even the crass political debates unattended. Instead, they are adapting to the bare-knuckled nature of X by trying to shape it. Largely, they’ve used X to try and drive the conversation and slam their likely general election opponent. But aides to the president have begun more aggressively using the platform to call out reporters and news outlets, mock pundits and try to influence the news cycle. HOME FIELD DISADVANTAGE — Nikki Haley sees her home state as a launchpad. It could become her campaign’s crash site, writes NBC News. The former South Carolina governor has staked her hopes of wresting the 2024 Republican presidential nomination from former President Donald Trump on the idea that she can survive January contests in Iowa and New Hampshire that will thin the GOP field and then defeat him in a one-on-one battle here in her backyard. So far, she hasn’t made the sale. That’s at least in part because Haley has yet to give voters a reason to abandon Trump — the dominant political figure in the state for almost a decade — a recurring theme that emerged in interviews with almost two dozen Republican voters, current and former elected officials, county party chairs and Republican strategists. The same can be said for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the rest of a field that Trump leads by more than 30 percentage points in recent polls of the state’s Feb. 24 primary. DISQUALIFYING TRUMP — The window is narrowing to try to knock former President Donald Trump off California’s March 5 primary ballot , reports POLITICO. Democrats across the country have launched several long-shot challenges to Trump’s ballot status over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. But the deadline for California Secretary of State Shirley Weber to certify which presidential candidates will appear on the ballot is just a month away. If Weber or the courts don’t act by Dec. 28, attempting to remove Trump could create major logistical challenges as the state prepares voter guides and other materials.   A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition:     AROUND THE WORLD A man stands at a border checkpoint between Russia and Finland on Nov. 15, 2023. | Vesa Moilanen/Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images SHUT IT DOWN — Finland will completely close its border with Russia for two weeks after a surge of asylum seekers crossing the frontier, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced today . “This is Russia’s influence activity, and we do not accept that,” Orpo said at a press conference, according to Finnish news outlet Helsingin Sanomat. The two-week border closure will take effect between Wednesday and Thursday night and will end on December 13, the paper reported. Helsinki’s move follows a decision by the European border agency Frontex last week to deploy border guards and other staff, along with equipment, to bolster Finland’s border control activities amid accusations by Finland that Moscow is stoking the migrant influx. Tension between the two countries has escalated since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting Finland to join the NATO military alliance. On Monday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg accused Russia of using migration as a tool to pressure Finland. “NATO stands in solidarity with our ally Finland,” he said.   GET A BACKSTAGE PASS TO COP28 WITH GLOBAL PLAYBOOK : Get insider access to the conference that sets the tone of the global climate agenda with POLITICO's Global Playbook newsletter. Authored by Suzanne Lynch, Global Playbook delivers exclusive, daily insights and comprehensive coverage that will keep you informed about the most crucial climate summit of the year. Dive deep into the critical discussions and developments at COP28 from Nov. 30 to Dec. 12. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     NIGHTLY NUMBER $35 billion The amount of money effectively being cut from the Defense Department budget , according to Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, as the Pentagon operates under a temporary funding measure that freezes spending at the previous year’s levels. RADAR SWEEP THE AIRBNB WARS — In New Orleans, Airbnb owners are at war with one another: The city tried to control short-term rentals through a lottery system that allowed one rental per carved up block. But the rule, designed initially to decrease short term rentals in the city, led to more chaos and confusion, especially after a federal judge halted the rule, which is still under review. Neighbors were pitted against each other in hopes to continue their rental side hustles. Now, the listings sit in limbo, with owners unsure whether they can create bookings or not as they await the judge’s final decision. In an article for WIRED, Amanda Hoover looks at how the city rule made a mess for Airbnb hosts around the city that is left frozen in place. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 2011: A veiled Egyptian woman casts her ballot in Maadi, a suburb of Cairo, as voting began in Egypt's first parliamentary elections since longtime authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising nine months prior. | Tara Todras-Whitehill/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition: Your security is on hackers’ wish list this year and some lawmakers are trying to put defunding data security under the tree by passing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill. If the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill becomes law, it could put millions of credit card transactions at much greater risk of hacking, fraud and identity theft. Washington should protect our private financial data, not make it easier for cyber criminals to hack into your wallet this holiday season. Learn more and tell Congress to say no to defunding data security by rejecting the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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FOCUS: Ukraine Makes Progress Along 2 Lines of Attack

 

12 August 23

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FOCUS: Ukraine Makes Progress Along 2 Lines of Attack
Marc Santora, New York Times
Santora writes: "After months of inching through minefields, villages and open steppes in grueling combat, Ukrainian forces are making somewhat bigger advances along two major lines of attack, according to analysts, Ukrainian officials and Russian military bloggers."  

Troops advanced 10 to 12 miles along two main lines of attack in Kyiv’s drive to reach the southern coast and sever Russian supply lines, while explosions echoed at the vital Kerch Strait Bridge.

After months of inching through minefields, villages and open steppes in grueling combat, Ukrainian forces are making somewhat bigger advances along two major lines of attack, according to analysts, Ukrainian officials and Russian military bloggers.

The amount of territory seized, 10 to 12 miles on both vectors of attack, while relatively small, is important in that it is compelling Moscow to divert forces from other parts of the front line, military analysts say. The Institute for the Study of War, a Washington-based think tank, called the advances “tactically significant,” saying Moscow’s redeployment would most “likely further weaken Russian defensive lines in aggregate,” creating “opportunities for any Ukrainian breakthrough to be potentially decisive.”

The Ukrainian military launched the counteroffensive this summer amid high hopes of duplicating its stunning sweep through the Kharkiv region in September. But those hopes were dashed amid heavy losses, causing commanders to change strategy from head-on assaults to a war of attrition, content to make steady, little gains while conserving resources and degrading those of the Russians.

And even as Ukrainian soldiers battle in trenches and on the field, the campaign to sever Russian supply lines continues, with Ukrainian missiles and drones targeting sites far from the front lines.

Explosions again echoed on Saturday as the Russian military said it had shot down two Ukrainian missiles targeting the Kerch Strait Bridge, a vital Russian link to the occupied Crimean Peninsula that Kyiv has vowed to keep attacking until it is unusable.

Video broadcast on Russian and Ukrainian state news media showed smoke billowing over the span, though the Russians said that was just a smoke screen intended to protect the bridge.

The Russian Ministry of Defense said that the Ukrainian forces attacked the bridge with two S-200 surface-to-air missiles. Sergei Aksyonov, the top Russian-installed official in Crimea, said the bridge was not damaged. The Russian accounts could not be independently verified, and Ukrainian officials did not immediately comment.

In the ground war, the Ukrainians are advancing south along two principal lines of attack: through the eastern village of Staromaiorske toward the Russian-occupied city of Berdiansk, a port on the Sea of Azov; and farther west toward the Russian-occupied city of Melitopol, a vital transportation hub near the coast.

Ukrainian forces have progressed about 10 to 12 miles along both lines from their starting places at the onset of the counteroffensive in early June. Kyiv’s goal is to reach the Sea of Azov and drive a wedge into the so-called land bridge between Russia and Crimea, which is vital to the Russian military’s supply routes to the west.

Military analysts caution that the Ukrainian forces still face a long, slow and bloody slog ahead against Russian troops positioned behind well-designed and fortified defenses. They cite a host of factors, like supplies of ammunition and other matériel as well as troop morale, that will determine how the fighting plays out over the coming months. But it is hard to analyze those elements, they say, given the disinformation and limited real information issued by both armies.

Even if Ukraine’s forces manage to break through Russia’s first line of defense, analysts note, Moscow has had many months to prepare the most formidable fortified defensive positions since World War II — a series of trenches, tank traps, vast minefields, machine-gun nests, attack helicopters and other air support. Ukraine has struggled, even with Western weapons, to overcome those obstacles, particularly the minefields.

Still, Britain’s military intelligence agency said on Saturday that Russia’s forces had faced “particularly intense attrition and heavy combat on the front line.”

At the same time, Russian forces are mounting their own offensive operations in northeastern Ukraine around the city of Kupiansk. By forcing Ukraine to defend there, military analysts say, Russia is most likely trying to draw Ukrainian forces from other areas where they are on the offensive.

Serhiy Cherevaty, a spokesman for Ukrainian forces fighting in the east, said on Saturday that Russian forces were still on the attack around Kupiansk, trying to hit Ukrainian positions eight times and striking “328 times with all types and calibers of artillery” over the past day.

Ukraine is hoping that pressure along the front, along with deep strikes aimed at command posts, ammunition depots and supply lines, will ultimately overcome the Russian defenses. However, those defenses are intended to be elastic, military analysts say, enabling the Russian forces to absorb Ukrainian blows and counterattack when they can.

The British military intelligence analysis noted that as Russia redeploys forces to counter Ukraine’s advances, its defenses farther south in the Kherson region along the Dnipro River are likely to be weakened.

Ukrainian forces, which hold the territory west of the Dnipro River, recently launched an assault on the town of Kozachi Laheri on the Russian-controlled eastern bank, Western analysts said. But it was too soon to tell whether the troops would be able to maintain an enduring presence there. Ukraine’s military has not confirmed the operation.

“The enemy continues to hold a small bridgehead west of Kozachi Laheri,” Rybar, an influential Russian military blogger, reported on Saturday, though he offered no details.

In one of the two main lines of attack, the one aimed at the coastal port of Berdiansk, Ukraine has consolidated gains around the ruined village of Staromaiorske, which it recaptured in late July, and appears to be pushing toward the Russian stronghold of Urozhaine, according to the Ukrainian military and military analysts.

Ukraine has devoted thousands of soldiers, including some of its most experienced and battle-hardened marines, and armor to the campaign drive south down the Mokri Yaly River Valley.

If they can manage to push through or around Urozhaine, that will put them within 50 miles of the two major port cities of Berdiansk and Mariupol on the Sea of Azov. And with each mile they advance, the Ukrainian forces put more pressure on the Russian supply lines.

Hanna Malyar, a Ukrainian deputy defense minister, said on Friday that her country’s forces had achieved “partial successes” in the direction of Urozhaine and south and southeast of Staromaiorske.

The Russian Vostok Battalion, a military outfit fighting in the area, reported on Friday that “artillery from both sides plowed up the neighborhood of Urozhaine so much that some positions were abandoned by us, but the enemy did not dare to claim them either.”

More fighting was reported on Saturday morning by Russian military bloggers as the city remained fiercely contested.

Along the line of attack in the direction of Melitopol, Ukrainian forces reported hard-fought battles but steady progress around the village of Robotyne.

The I.S.W. said of that fight: “The Ukrainian forces’ ability to advance to the outskirts of Robotyne — which Russian forces have dedicated significant effort, time and resources to defend — remains significant even if Ukrainian gains are limited at this time.”

Valerii Shershen, a representative of the Ukrainian forces fighting in the area, said this past week that Russia was calling up reinforcements from its second lines of defense, including marines, paratroopers and special forces, to stop the Ukrainian advance.

While Ukraine is making gains, he said the advance was being slowed because of the dense minefields and large number of obstacles.

Russian aircraft, he said, are constantly strafing Ukrainian lines, hitting them more than a dozen times in a single day this past week.

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