POLITICO Nightly: The next 63 days

By Charlie Mahtesian and Calder McHugh Supporters cheer as Vice President Kamala Harris speaks at a campaign rally on Aug. 29 in Savannah, Georgia. | Win McNamee/Getty Images NINE WEEK COUNTDOWN — The hour is later than you think. While in some ways it feels like the presidential race between Kamala Harris and Donald Trump just started, the reality is that it’s nearly over. North Carolina begins mailing out absentee ballots this week. Early voting begins in Pennsylvania in two weeks. Just 63 days remain until Election Day. At the beginning of the post-Labor Day homestretch, the race is incredibly tight — Harris leads in national polls by between 2 and 4 percentage points , on average. The election, of course, is not decided by a national vote. The outcome will be determined in seven battleground states — Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin. And there, the contest is exceptionally close as well. Harris holds a narrow lead in six of the seven battlegrounds — all but North Carolina, according to FiveThirtyEight polling averages in those states. But the margin between the candidates is so slim that it’s under one percentage point in more than half of those states. At the moment at least, this is a margin of error contest wrapped in a photo-finish inside a dead heat. For Democrats, the outlook is better than at any other point in the 2024 campaign. Before dropping out, Biden trailed in every battleground state. Even his own campaign conceded that his path back to the White House had narrowed to a harrowing ride through the Rust Belt, with no room for error. Today, Harris has two plausible routes, one through the Rust Belt and another through the Sun Belt. She’s even in striking distance of winning North Carolina, which would all but doom Trump’s chances. Republicans also have reason for hope. Their nominee for president has weathered 88 alleged criminal offenses across four criminal cases and has been found guilty of 34. He still owes hundreds of millions of dollars in civil penalties to E. Jean Carroll and New York state. Despite all that, he remains essentially tied in the polls. The GOP base remains wildly enthusiastic about voting for Trump. While Democratic enthusiasm has spiked in the aftermath of Harris’ ascension to the party nomination, Republican enthusiasm for Trump has kept pace — and even shows signs of improvement. According to an early August Pew Research Center survey , 72 percent of Trump supporters said they are extremely motivated to vote, up from 63 percent in July. In that same poll, 70 percent of Harris supporters said they are extremely motivated to vote. Trump supporters have another reason to believe: polls have underestimated the level of support for Trump in both the 2016 and 2020 elections. It’s been a campaign that has already witnessed a lifetime’s worth of October Surprises — indictments, convictions, an assassination attempt, a catastrophic debate performance, the withdrawal of a president from a reelection bid — and yet there are still some potentially catalytic moments to come. A presidential debate between Trump and Harris is slated to take place just one week from today, on Sept. 10, hosted by ABC News. The two camps remain held up on the rules — including whether the microphones will be hot . Boiled down to its essence, the mic fight is a Harris campaign bet that an unmuted Trump is an unmoored Trump, easily baited into a spectacular act of self-immolation. Throughout the campaign thus far, Harris has stayed relentlessly on message while Trump has swung wildly at her identity ; that’s a distinction that the vice president’s campaign is hoping they can show the American public in miniature next week. A week after the showdown before a national audience, the first of three significant economic moments will arrive — occasions that could go a long way toward determining how Americans feel about the economy, and bolstering or undermining the candidates’ arguments. On Sept. 17-18, the Federal Reserve is set to hold its September meeting, where Chair Jerome Powell is expected to recommend an interest rate cut. A 25 basis point cut is likely already priced in, but if Powell recommends a larger cut of 50 basis points — unlikely but not out of the question — it could spur optimism in the market about inflation, but also could mean that the Fed sees the labor market as particularly weak. In October and early November, we’ll get final, pre-election looks at both the state of inflation and the strength of the job market, which will color the closing arguments in an election where inflation and the economy are the number one issue for many voters. On Oct. 10, the final Consumer Price Index — the most important measure of inflation — before the election will be released. Then, three weeks later on Nov. 1, just four days before voters go to the polls, the final jobs report will be released. Harris is trying to sell voters on an economy where inflation is under control and the job market remains robust. But if one of these indicators suggests otherwise right before Nov. 5, Republicans will have a key data point to leverage in their case against Biden-Harris economic policies. Polls suggest Harris is closing the gap on Trump regarding how much voters trust each candidate to handle the economy. But as she claims more credit for the policies of the Biden administration, these three dates become essential as voters build their impression of how she might handle economic issues as president. With just over two months to go, the race looks tighter than any in recent memory. And while the polls rarely change dramatically between Labor Day and Election Day, the fact that the contest is so close means that even a small atmospheric change could decide who will be the next president. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh . What'd I Miss? — Supreme Court declines to block Biden family planning rules in Oklahoma: The U.S. Supreme Court today rejected Oklahoma’s bid to claw back millions in federal family planning grants that the Biden administration had rescinded over the state’s refusal to provide information about abortion to patients who request it. Justices Samuel Alito, Clarence Thomas and Neil Gorsuch dissented, saying they would have granted the state’s application for relief. The move continues the court’s trend since its conservative majority overturned Roe v. Wade in 2022 to sidestep major abortion questions, including narrow, procedural decisions this past term on abortion pills and emergency abortions that avoided the merits of both cases. — Former New York official accused of acting as a Chinese government agent: A former New York state official who worked under Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul and her predecessor ex-Gov. Andrew Cuomo was accused of trading on her connections to act as an undisclosed agent of the Chinese government , according to a sweeping federal indictment unsealed today. Linda Sun, 41, was accused of using her influence as a top aide to both governors to shape state policy toward China and Taiwan, federal prosecutors alleged. MONGOLIA: ENERGY CAPTIVE! — Sorry not sorry, says Mongolia after failure to arrest Putin: That’s the message from Mongolia’s government after it failed on Monday to execute an international arrest warrant against Russian President Vladimir Putin as he landed in the country for an official visit. A Mongolian government spokesperson said that the country finds itself in a position of energy dependence , rendering it difficult to handcuff Putin on the International Criminal Court (ICC) warrant over war crimes in Ukraine. “Mongolia imports 95% of its petroleum products and over 20% of electricity from our immediate neighborhood, which have previously suffered interruption for technical reasons. This supply is critical to ensure our existence and that of our people,” the spokesperson said. Nightly Road to 2024 SLOW COUNTING — Election officials in Pennsylvania are warning that because of inaction in Harrisburg, the swing state’s votes may again take days to count , creating a window for bad actors to sow distrust in the results, writes the Philadelphia Inquirer. County election officials have been petitioning state lawmakers to update the state’s election code for years. They’ve also persistently asked the General Assembly to clarify questions surrounding which mail ballots can and cannot be counted to address voting rights litigation that has played out in Pennsylvania since no-excuse mail voting was authorized in 2019. But as November approaches, little has changed since 2020 — when former President Donald Trump used the slow counting process to promote unfounded claims of voter fraud in the wake of his defeat. SWAN SONG — A federal judge today ordered former President Donald J. Trump’s campaign to stop using the song “Hold On, I’m Coming,” by Isaac Hayes, at campaign events in response to a lawsuit from the artist’s estate, reports The New York Times. The judge, Thomas Thrash Jr. of the U.S. District Court for the Northern District of Georgia, issued a temporary injunction blocking further use of the song “without proper license.” However, Judge Thrash did not grant the estate’s request to order Trump’s campaign to take down recordings of past events in which it had used the song. TOO LATE NOW — A Michigan judge ruled that Robert F. Kennedy Jr. must remain on the November presidential ballot , dealing a blow to his crusade to strategically remove his ticket from the battleground state, reports The Associated Press. Kennedy suspended his campaign and endorsed former President Donald Trump in August. Since then, he has sought to withdraw his name in states — like Michigan — where the race could be close. Kennedy filed a lawsuit Friday in Michigan’s Court of Claims against Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, a Democrat, in an effort to withdraw his name. Michigan’s election officials had previously rejected Kennedy’s notice of withdrawal. AROUND THE WORLD A Ukrainian firefighter talks on the radio while he works to extinguish the fire on the site of an electrical substation that was hit by a Russian strike in Dnipropetrovsk region, Ukraine, Monday, Sept. 2, 2024. | Alex Babenko/AP MAJOR BLAST — Russian forces struck buildings including a hospital with two ballistic missiles in the city of Poltava today, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy said. “One of the buildings of the Institute of Communications was partially destroyed. A nearby hospital building was also hit. People found themselves under the rubble. Many were saved ... Unfortunately, many died,” Zelenskyy said in a video statement. As of early this evening, 51 people were confirmed dead and more than 200 injured, the prosecutor’s office said. More people may be trapped under the rubble, the president added. The rescue operation is ongoing. Poltava Communications Institute — a military university to prepare officers — put a mourning candle image on its Facebook page, issuing no statement. Zelenskyy said an investigation will take place to understand how the attack could happen and kill so many. STILL SEARCHING — Rife conjecture, lengthy talks and a constantly changing list of possible candidates have marked French President Emmanuel Macron’s latest push to break the deadlock that has gripped France since snap elections this summer delivered a hung parliament. As the French returned to work and school on Monday, their country appeared no closer to having a government than it did before the Olympics. The day began with Bernard Cazeneuve as the apparent front-runner, but the former prime minister was out of contention after lunch. Then, it was rumored that Macron was in talks to appoint a little-known top civil servant, Thierry Beaudet, to the post. Overnight, conservative heavyweight Xavier Bertrand replaced Beaudet as the new favorite. Macron today held talks with conservative leaders including Senate leader Gérard Larcher and conservative parliamentary leader Laurent Wauquiez, according to several people with knowledge of the talks who were granted anonymity because they were not authorized to speak publicly, seemingly solidifying Bertrand’s status as likely nominee. But by this afternoon, Bertrand was already facing serious objections to his appointment. The last 36 hours have baffled even seasoned political observers, and inspired no shortage of mocking memes and jokes online. French journalist Diane de Fortanier tweeted a mock graph of the rise and fall of potential candidates, while former Elysée official Gaspard Gantzer poked fun at Macron’s dithering and endless consultations — joking he’d next be meeting with French prime ministers, winners at the Césars and Tour de France champions. Even outgoing Prime Minister Gabriel Attal couldn’t escape the frenzy during a visit to a school in the Paris region on Monday, when he got a grilling by pupils over who the next prime minister will be and whether he was still friends with the French president. Nightly Number Nearly $25 million The amount of money that Kamala Harris’ campaign and the Democratic National Committee said they are sending to support down-ballot Democrats — an earlier investment and far more money than the top of the ticket has sent in past election years. RADAR SWEEP SHARING IS CARING — In Austria, wealth inequality is a serious problem — the richest one percent owns half of the European country’s wealth. One member of the 1 percent wants to figure out how to solve the problem — with the help of the 99 percent. The heiress and philanthropist Marlene Engelhorn convened a group of 50 Austrians selected by lottery to discuss how to redistribute €25 million ($27.6 million) — and then do so, without outside influence. In The New Yorker, Joshua Yaffa reports from the meetings of the Austrians selected to complete this task and considers their solutions to the problem. Parting Image On this date in 1984: Then-Democratic presidential candidate Walter Mondale, vice-presidential candidate Geraldine Ferraro and New York's Democratic Gov. Mario Cuomo wave to New Yorkers as they march in the Labor Day parade in Manhattan. | Lana Harris/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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