This is PRESIDENT BIDEN'S ECONOMY! 

Today's jobs report shows economy added booming 303K jobs in March, unemployment at 3.8%

Story by Paul Davidson, USA TODAY

BIDEN'S ECONOMY

 

A REMINDER FROM NOVEMBER 2023 

Why are so many people so down on Biden’s economy? My answer, and a proposal for what Biden must do ROBERT REICH NOV 16 Friends, A few days ago, I had a long talk with my old friend Jared Bernstein, who chairs Biden’s Council of Economic Advisers. Jared worked for me 30 years ago at the Labor Department, and, as I reminded him, his career has been on a downward trajectory ever since. The Council of Economic Advisers is now preparing its annual Economic Report of the President, so it seemed an especially good time to ask Jared for his take on the weirdest thing about today’s economy, which is rattling Democratic politics to the bone: The gap between the data showing a good economy and the public’s perception that the economy stinks. Consider: The economy grew 4.9 percent over the last quarter. Unemployment has been under 4 percent for the last 21 months. Median household wealth has grown by 37% since the pandemic. Wages have been growing faster at the bottom of the economy than at the top. And inflation is way down from where it was a year ago. The Consumer Price Index slowed to 3.2 percent last month on a year-over-year basis, after peaking at just above 9 percent on an overall basis in the summer of 2022. The economic data is about as good as it gets. And yet the American public doesn’t see it this way. To the contrary, in the recent Times-Siena College poll, only 2 percent of Americans said the economy is excellent. Just 19 percent think it’s even good. Over 80 percent say it’s fair to poor. Other polls show much the same, or worse. How to explain this discrepancy? Some economists, such as Paul Krugman, think the public is being irrational. But that’s no answer. The public can’t be irrational about its perceptions. The more Joe Biden tells Americans how great Bidenomics is, the more people report that Biden is “out of touch.” Jared’s answer is more nuanced. He thinks questions about the economy are really understood by the public as questions about the state of the nation and the world, which most people find deeply worrisome. After all, the past few years have featured the deaths of more than a million Americans from COVID, the attack on the Capitol, double-digit inflation, Putin’s invasion of Ukraine, climate-induced floods, hurricanes, and wildfires, and now a horrific war in Israel. Most people are still deeply rattled. Jared could be right, but I think he’s missing something else. Just as people don’t think about the economy in isolation, they also don’t think of the “economy” in absolute terms. They think about it in relative terms — relative to where it used to be, relative to where they think it should be. Americans instinctively compare the economy they’re living in to the one their parents or grandparents lived in — one in which the middle class was growing, almost everyone was doing better than before, and housing was affordable. Many of the young people I know are stressed by the high costs of housing and home repairs, child care, cars and car repairs, and health care. They don’t view the current economy as terrific. In fact, compared to the economy of the 1960s, the current economy is hardly terrific. If you lack a four-year college degree, it’s even worse. This is especially the case in so-called “battleground” states such as Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania — places that 50 years ago provided millions of high-paying union jobs but are now economic backwaters. Take a look at the following chart, which shows the share of battleground state voters who trust Biden to do a better job on the economy than Trump, and you see what I mean. For example, note that less than a third of the white working class with no college education trusts Biden to do a better job on the economy than Trump. Why do they trust Trump to do a better job on the economy than Biden? Because they remember Trump loudly (and hypocritically) “fighting” for them — condemning the Chinese and other exporters to America, lashing out at Mexico and NAFTA, criticizing Europe for “taking advantage” of us, and going after “coastal elites” and the “deep state” for rigging the economy against average working people. (I say “hypocritically” because Trump was in fact the champion of the billionaire class, giving them the biggest tax cut they’ve ever had.) In other words, it’s not that Trump did a better job on the economy than Biden. He didn’t. It’s that many people — especially working-class Americans in battleground states — had a sense he was fighting for them against their perceived “enemies.” What does this suggest for Biden? Biden should take on the CEOs of big corporations and Wall Street, which continue to be the real sources of wage suppression in America. Biden has already walked a picket line and supported striking workers. He’s the most pro-worker and pro-labor president we’ve had in memory. And his administration is fighting corporate monopolies harder than any administration since the 1960s. It would be a small and logical step for Biden to let loose on the denizens of the Street and C-suites who are demanding bigger profits and lower wages and are using corporate earnings to buy back shares of stock. Biden is doing a good job on the economy, but that doesn’t matter if the public doesn’t believe it. For them to believe it, he has to show himself as a fighter. What do you think?

POLITICO Nightly: Two big risks hanging over Biden’s reelection

 

BY SUDEEP REDDY President Joe Biden delivers remarks on his "Bidenomics" economic plan, at CS Wind, the largest wind tower manufacturer in the world, in Pueblo, Colorado, on Nov. 29, 2023. | Andrew Caballero-Reynolds/AFP via Getty Images A YEAR WITHOUT SURPRISES — Saturday marks three years since Joe Biden’s inauguration. On the day he became president, with Covid-19 still strangling the economy, the latest U.S. unemployment reading stood at a painful 6.7 percent while annual inflation sat at a now unimaginable 1.4 percent. What happened over the next two years created a political challenge for the ages. Joblessness fell to near historic lows. But inflation surged to multi-decade highs, souring the nation’s mood (and Biden’s approval ratings) by contributing to the vibecession across much of America. Biden will try explaining his way through both of them until Nov. 4, while also selling the sweeping legislation he enacted to spend federal funds on energy, infrastructure, semiconductors and much more. Importantly for the president today, both measures are moving in the right direction. Today’s economic data showed consumer sentiment posting its sharpest two-month increase in decades, while expectations for inflation in the year ahead fell to the lowest level since December 2020. Thursday’s jobless claims reading fell to the lowest in 16 months. Combined with the stock market closing at a record high today, Biden is certainly wishing today’s economy could be frozen in place. The fact that it can’t be locked in place is perhaps the biggest election risk hanging over the president in his fourth year in office. Three years ago tonight, Nightly imagined a few threats that could derail the promise of Biden’s grand policy agenda. “The bond market could take a surprise turn and reignite financial turbulence,” we wrote at a moment when nobody was worrying about the bond market, borrowing costs or inflation. “Extremists at home or abroad could create a new round of turmoil,” we also wrote when a Russian war, Hamas terrorism and daily Houthi missile launches at commercial ships were not in the headlines. “Crises have a way of introducing themselves when nobody expects them.” Both of those risks — an unsettled bond market and global turmoil — are poised to shape the nation’s economic fortunes in the coming year. The turbulence of the bond market — the result of Federal Reserve interest-rate hikes designed to fight inflation — have sent borrowing costs soaring, contributing to the wave of angst across corporate boardrooms over the past two years. The magicians at the central bank are still hoping to pull a soft landing out of their hat, a feat that’d keep the stock market lofty — and keep employers happy and hiring — throughout the year. For the Fed to make that happen, it needs a year without surprises in order to keep inflation on its downward path. Hot wars in Ukraine and the Middle East have been two of those surprises hitting the U.S. economy before. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine two years ago sent oil prices soaring, worsening Biden’s inflation woes from the supply-chain troubles of 2021. "R" voters are too lazy or too stupid to look up FACTS that are available and continue to embrace disinformation. tRump negotiated with the SAUDIS to cut OPEC production --- the MAGA GOP want to pretend it didn't happen. MAGA CULT want to ignore RECORD US OIL PRODUCTION! WHY HASN'T BIG OIL REDUCED THE PRICE? The Hamas attack in Israel continues to ricochet across the Middle East in unpredictable ways. Biden’s latest daily headache is ensuring Yemeni rebels don’t cripple the global economy. A cheap missile hitting an oil tanker would send oil prices soaring — reigniting inflation, strangling consumers, slamming markets and sending employers panicking. Even the rerouting of container ships to avoid the Red Sea is already raising transportation costs for manufacturers in a way that could show up in U.S. inflation later this year. Biden is well aware of the risks, acknowledging the problem openly last week. Nobody will credit him for record U.S. oil production if prices are soaring anyway. Four years ago, President Donald Trump had a strong message going into the final year of his term: Unemployment was sitting at historic lows, the stock market was hitting fresh records and the Fed was growing less concerned about inflation risks. It looked like a recipe for reelection until a new crisis struck — Covid. Biden, for a long and nervous nine months ahead, needs to avoid a similar crisis scenario to prevent the same fate. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at sreddy@politico.com on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @Reddy .   GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Biden speaks with Netanyahu amid two-state solution outrage: President Joe Biden spoke with Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu today for the first time in nearly a month about the ongoing war in Gaza and the potential for a postwar Palestinian state. The conversation came on the cusp of Netanyahu’s rejection of creating an independent Palestinian nation once the fighting in the Gaza Strip concludes, though the White House contends the timing of the call was coincidental. The Biden administration has forcefully pushed for a two-state solution in the region, but Netanyahu’s latest remarks signal that he won’t adhere to Washington’s appeals. — Washington takes aim at facial recognition: A group of Democratic senators on Thursday demanded that the Justice Department look at how police use facial recognition tools and whether it violates civil rights laws — part of a fresh wave of scrutiny in Washington to a technology that has triggered national concerns but has never come under federal regulations. The letter, shared exclusively with POLITICO, calls for the Justice Department to explain how the agency’s policies and practices ensure that law enforcement agencies receiving federal funds for facial recognition technology comply with civil rights protections. Sen. Raphael Warnock (D-Ga.) is the letter’s lead author, joined by Senate Judiciary Chair Dick Durbin (D-Ill.) and 15 other Democrats and one independent. — DOJ and FTC both push to investigate Microsoft’s OpenAI partnership: The Justice Department and the Federal Trade Commission are deep in discussions over which agency can probe OpenAI , including the ChatGPT creators’ involvement with Microsoft, on antitrust grounds. The FTC initiated talks with the DOJ months ago to figure out which one can review the matter, according to three people with knowledge of the matter. But neither agency is ready to relinquish jurisdiction, the people said, which must be resolved before the government can formally intervene in one of the most high-profile and controversial tech partnerships in recent years. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 Sen. Tim Scott (R-S.C.) speaks in front of President Donald Trump during a campaign rally on Feb. 28, 2020, in North Charleston, S.C. | Patrick Semansky/AP SCOTT DITCHES HALEY — Senator Tim Scott of South Carolina will endorse Donald Trump this evening at a rally in New Hampshire, according to the New York Times. Scott traveled to Florida today so that he could fly with Trump to New Hampshire for the rally, the two people said. His endorsement of Trump is likely to spur additional discussion of Scott as a potential running mate for the former president. He is the highest-ranking elected Black Republican in the nation. THE DAILY 14TH AMENDMENT — Maine Secretary of State Shenna Bellows is asking the state’s highest court to weigh in on her decision to remove Donald Trump from the 2024 ballot while a related decision by Colorado judges remains pending before the U.S. Supreme Court, reports POLITICO. Bellows ruled last month that Trump should not appear on the state’s 2024 ballot, concluding that his incitement of the Jan. 6 violence at the Capitol put him afoul of the 14th Amendment’s bar on insurrectionists holding public office. Trump challenged her ruling in Maine superior court, and a judge put Bellows’ ruling on hold in anticipation of the U.S. Supreme Court’s decision on the matter. IN THE FOXHOLE — When the Fox News host Laura Ingraham urged Gov. Ron DeSantis of Florida “to step aside and endorse Trump” on Tuesday night, it was t he latest sign of a sharp deterioration of relations between the Republican presidential hopeful and the network that made him a star , writes the New York Times. Ms. Ingraham’s exhortation, in the wake of Mr. DeSantis’s second-place finish in the Iowa caucuses, was met with mockery and derision by two of the governor’s most prominent aides. It was the latest broadside from Mr. DeSantis’s inner circle against the cable network that until recently had been among the loudest advocates of his candidacy. VP IS ‘OFF THE TABLE’ — Nikki Haley says being vice president is “off the table .” The declaration, delivered to a pair of diners at MaryAnn’s in Amherst and overheard by a POLITICO reporter today, was one of Haley’s most pointed remarks yet about her disinterest in the vice presidency. That Haley, the former U.N. ambassador under Donald Trump, had not previously definitively ruled out being Trump’s running mate has been a source of concern for some anti-Trump voters in New Hampshire who are considering casting ballots for her next week. Even as she ramped up her attacks on her former boss, voters here have taken issue with Haley responding to questions about serving as Trump’s vice president by saying only that she doesn’t “play for second.” AROUND THE WORLD BIG TIME BUST — Dozens of boxes containing 2,000 kilograms of Ketamine have been discovered in a shed in Muiderberg , a village east of Amsterdam, with a street value of tens of millions of euros, reports POLITICO EU. “This is the largest amount of ketamine ever found in the Netherlands,” police say. Acting on a tip, the police raided the property and arrested a 55-year-old man, who lives in a house on the premises. Two children were also found and brought to an emergency shelter. The police removed the Ketamine, along with several kilograms of hard drugs, and destroyed them, it said in a statement. Police estimate the stash to have a street value of almost €55 million. Trading Ketamine without registration can be punished by up to six years in prison in the Netherlands. According to the police, trafficking is “accompanied by other forms of crime, such as money laundering and weapons possession.” Ketamine, an anesthetic for depression and anxiety, is not illegal in the Netherlands and is increasingly used as a party drug because of its hallucinogenic effects. The Netherlands has been struggling with drug trafficking and drug use. Amsterdam’s mayor Femke Halsema warned in an op-ed in the Guardian on Jan. 5 that “without a fundamental change of course, the Netherlands is in danger of becoming a narco-state.” BALTIC BARRICADE — Latvia, Lithuania and Estonia agreed today to set up a common Baltic defense zone on their borders with Russia and Belarus amid growing security concerns, reports POLITICO EU. The defense ministers of the three Baltic countries met today in Riga to approve the construction of "anti-mobility defensive installations" on their eastern frontiers. They also agreed to develop missile-artillery cooperation. Estonian Defense Minister Hanno Pevkur stressed the need for bunkers at the border, saying: “Russia’s war in Ukraine has shown that in addition to equipment, ammunition and manpower, we also need physical defensive structures at the border from the first meter to protect Estonia."   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS : From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      NIGHTLY NUMBER $208 million The amount of money that Future Forward, the top outside group supporting President Joe Biden’s reelection campaign, raised in 2023 . The huge haul, combined with the nearly $100 million raised by the Biden campaign operation in the final quarter of the year, likely gives the president a significant fundraising advantage over his Republican rivals. RADAR SWEEP DO YOU EVEN LIFT — As Americans embark on their endless quests to remain fit, some of them are getting some help in the form of anabolic steroids . The number of Americans who have been legally prescribed steroids in recent years has exploded, and with it has come all kinds of easy ways to get the drugs illicitly as well. We’ve all heard the scary warnings about abusing steroids and how they might change your body and lead to hair loss or heart disease. But writing in The Baffler, Adrian Nathan West makes the case that at least in left-wing circles, all those fears might be rooted in something else: longstanding concerns about what it means to cultivate a traditional image of manliness. He does so by exploring both the medical concerns associated with steroid use and the psychological worries that come along with it. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1979: More than a million supporters of an Islamic republic gathered at the Shah Memorial monument in Tehran in a show of strength against the civilian government left behind by Shah Mohammad Reza Pahlavi. The Shah left the country three days earlier. Similar demonstrations were held all over the country, most of them peaceful. | Aristotle Saris/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Mia McCarthy @Reporter_Mia   FOLLOW US

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POLITICO Nightly: The deal that’s shaping the future of the American West

 

BY ANNIE SNIDER Presented by Irrigation pumps on a canal in Holtville, Calif. The region relies on water from the Colorado River. | Sandy Huffaker/AFP via Getty Images PARCHED — The future of the American West is quietly being hashed out in the conference rooms of a Las Vegas casino this week. Just across the strip from the Bellagio’s fountains, in the shadow of an enormous Eiffel Tower-knock-off, negotiators from the seven states that share the Colorado River are racing to reach a deal on how to share the West’s most important — and shrinking — waterway. Climate change has shriveled the river’s flows by more than 20 percent over the past two decades, and the only question now is how much worse things will get. The negotiations over how to share the pain of bringing water use in line with the shrunken waterway will have huge implications for the 40 million people who rely on it at their taps in metro areas from Denver to Phoenix to San Diego, as well as for the powerhouse farming operations that use roughly three-quarters of the river’s water to irrigate some of the country’s most productive agricultural land. Also on the line are the interests of 30 federally-recognized tribes along the river and the 11 national parks and monuments it courses through, including the Grand Canyon. The politics present an absolute landmine for the Biden administration , which has taken a much more aggressive approach with the affected states than its predecessors. The sharpest pain will be centered on the three lower river states: Arizona and Nevada — two crucial political swing states – and California, home of the Democratic Party’s most deep-pocketed donors and whose governor is widely believed to harbor presidential ambitions. Especially contentious is the fault line between farmers, who typically hold the most protected rights to the river, and the urban areas that are the states’ economic engines and are home to their voting bases, but are first in line for water delivery cuts under the century-old legal regime that governs the river. “This is going to be the hardest thing that any of us have ever done,” said Jeff Kightlinger, a long-time California water manager who is representing the largest and most powerful farm district in this round of negotiations. Even before the current megadrought affecting the region, cities, farms and industries from the mountains of Wyoming to the U.S.-Mexico border were using more water than the river reliably delivered each year. They got by thanks to water stored at the river’s two big reservoirs at Lake Mead and Lake Powell. But that storage has been drained so low that, before last year’s wet winter, water managers feared they could be just a year away from losing the ability to physically get water out of one of the two main dams on the river. Mother Nature, and a three-state deal to conserve water over the next three years in exchange for $1.2 billion in federal funding, have headed off the disaster for now. But crafting new rules to govern the river through a much drier future beginning in 2026 will be exponentially harder. For one thing, the gusher of federal funding from the Inflation Reduction Act that enabled the short-term pact will be gone by then, and there’s no guarantee that new federal dollars will materialize. In fact, there’s already evidence that those dollars are driving up the cost of water conservation deals . And, while some of the river’s most powerful interests — namely, the Imperial Valley farm district in Southern California that controls more water than the states of Arizona and Nevada, combined — were willing to take some pain in a moment of crisis, they’re under enormous pressure from their constituents not to give up much water going forward. The upper river states of Colorado, Utah, Wyoming and New Mexico are also reluctant. They aren’t using their full water allocations now, but don’t want their ability to tap that water going forward to be stymied by what they see as flagrant overconsumption by their downstream neighbors. Then there’s Mexico. Under international treaty, the U.S. must deliver a set quantity of water across the border each year. While the Mexican government has agreed to participate in prior drought deals, those agreements are about to expire and it’s unclear what it would take to gain their participation in the pain going forward — especially if former President Donald Trump were to win next November. That could have something to do with why the Biden administration wants a deal done and the legal process to shore it up well underway by the end of 2024. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at asnider@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @AnnElizabeth18 .   A message from bp: Across the US, bp supports more than 275,000 jobs to keep our energy flowing. Like building grid-scale solar in Ohio and producing gas with fewer operational emissions in Texas. See how else bp is investing in America.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Jack Smith asks Supreme Court to keep Trump trial on track: Special counsel Jack Smith is urging the Supreme Court to urgently resolve Donald Trump’s claim that he’s immune from prosecution for charges related to his bid to subvert the 2020 election. Without the Supreme Court’s swift intervention, Trump’s trial could be indefinitely delayed, the special counsel warned in a petition to the high court today. That’s because the trial, scheduled to begin March 4, is effectively suspended while Trump pursues his appeal of the trial judge’s ruling rejecting his immunity arguments, Smith wrote. Resolution of the novel legal question is necessary to ensure the case proceeds “promptly,” he argued. — Sheila Jackson Lee files reelection bid for her House seat after losing Houston mayor’s race: Two days after she lost her bid to become Houston’s next mayor, Democratic Rep. Sheila Jackson Lee has filed for reelection to her seat in Congress . Jackson Lee, 73, filed paperwork for reelection today. She enters the race for the safe blue House seat she has held for nearly three decades after state Sen. John Whitmire defeated her in a landslide loss to become the mayor of Houston on Saturday, 64%-36%. Her campaign did not respond to a request for comment on the filing. — US ‘concerned’ about reports that Israel used white phosphorus, Kirby says: The Biden administration is “concerned” about Israel’s reported use of white phosphorus in Lebanon two months ago, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters today. Kirby’s comments follow an analysis by a journalist working for The Washington Post, who found remains of three 155-millimeter artillery rounds fired into Dheira, a small town near the border of Israel. White phosphorus can be used to obscure troop movement as the smoke falls haphazardly over an area. But the chemical substance can also stick to skin and cause potentially fatal burns and respiratory damage. Its use could violate international law if its used intentionally as a weapon against civilians, according to the World Health Organization. — Santos is in plea talks, prosecutors say: Former Rep. George Santos (R-N.Y.) is in talks to plead guilty to federal charges , prosecutors disclosed in a court filing today, 10 days after the onetime congressman was expelled from the House. “The parties are presently engaged in plea negotiations with the goal of resolving this matter without the need for a trial,” Brooklyn federal prosecutors wrote in the filing, ahead of a court conference planned for Tuesday. Prosecutors added that “[t]he parties wish to continue those negotiations over the next thirty days” before meeting for an additional court conference. Santos, a former first-term Republican from New York who was originally indicted in May and was hit with an updated indictment in October, faces an array of 23 charges, including wire fraud, money laundering and theft of public funds.   Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here .     NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 BALLOT WARS — Florida Democrats continue to defend their decision to short-circuit the presidential primary in favor of President Joe Biden. But now they will have to do it in federal court, writes POLITICO. A Tampa lawyer who has run for office previously wants a federal judge to order state election officials to put the name of Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) on the March 19 ballot along with Biden . The lawsuit filed last week against both the Florida Democratic Party and Secretary of State Cord Byrd contends the process used by Democrats — as outlined under Florida law — is unconstitutional. RAMASWAMY THREATENED — A 30-year-old New Hampshire man has been arrested after prosecutors accused him of threatening to kill presidential candidate Vivek Ramaswamy , reports POLITICO. Tyler Anderson of Dover is charged with making an interstate threat. He appeared in federal court in New Hampshire this afternoon and is being held pending a detention hearing on Thursday. If convicted, Anderson could face up to five years in prison, followed by up to three years of supervised release, plus a fine of up to $250,000, according to federal prosecutors. Anderson threatened to “blow” Ramaswamy’s “brains out” in a text message sent in a response to one from the candidate’s campaign informing him of an event this morning in Portsmouth, according to charging documents. He also wrote that he was “going to kill everyone who attends and then [expletive] their corpses,” documents show.   A message from bp:     AROUND THE WORLD President Joe Biden speaks about Bidenomics at CS Wind on Nov. 29, 2023 in Pueblo, Colo. | Michael Ciaglo/Getty Images GLOBAL HIT — “Bidenomics” is falling flat with American voters. But the rest of the world can’t get enough of it , reports POLITICO. The mammoth climate law that serves as the linchpin of President Joe Biden’s economics program has ignited a new zeal among leaders around the world for the kind of winner-picking, subsidy-flush governing that has been out of fashion in many countries for the past 40 years. The Inflation Reduction Act’s mix of lavish support for clean energy technologies and efforts to box out foreign competitors is also promoting a kind of green patriotism — and even some politicians on the right, at least outside the U.S., say that’s a climate message they can sell. “It’s probably the most impressive piece of legislation in my lifetime,” ex-diplomat Marc-André Blanchard, an executive at Canada’s biggest pension fund, told POLITICO at the sprawling venue of the COP28 U.N. climate talks in Dubai. That may provide little political comfort to Biden, as multiple polls show him losing the economic messaging war to former President Donald Trump, his most likely opponent in next year’s presidential election. Trump has promised to rip out the climate law root and branch. But Biden’s law has struck something at the climate talks in Dubai — either inspiration or a nerve. Trade measures for the first time are an official focal point of the summit’s diplomatic negotiating text, showing just how potent and unavoidable it has become for national governments to debate policies favoring their domestic clean energy industries. After originally billing the law as offering $369 billion in climate and clean energy goodies, the White House is now proudly proclaiming it will spur closer to $700 billion — or even $1 trillion — in green incentives over 10 years. BACK IN BUSINESS — After nine years out of power, Donald Tusk is back — securing the support of the Polish parliament today to head a new government, reports POLITICO EU. The vote was 248 in favor and 201 against, cementing his return nearly two months after a coalition of opposition parties led by the former European Council president delivered a surprising win in the October 15 national election. Earlier today, Poland’s outgoing Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki lost a vote of confidence 266-190 in the lower house of parliament, officially putting an end to the nationalist Law and Justice (PiS) party’s eight-year stint in power. That paves the way for Tusk to forge a centrist, pro-EU government from his Civic Coalition party, the liberal Poland 2050 party, the conservative agrarian Polish People’s Party and the Left.   POLITICO AT CES® 2024 : We are going ALL On at CES 2024 with a special edition of the POLITICO Digital Future Daily newsletter. The CES-focused newsletter will take you inside the most powerful tech event in the world, featuring revolutionary products that cut across verticals, and insights from industry leaders that are shaping the future of innovation. The newsletter runs from Jan. 9-12 and will focus on the public policy-related aspects of the gathering. Sign up today to receive exclusive coverage of the show .     NIGHTLY NUMBER 27.5 percent The percentage turnout among Hong Kong’s registered voters in their first district council elections since guidance from Beijing effectively shut out all pro-democracy candidates, setting a record low since the territory was transferred from British to Chinese administration in 1997. In the last election, in 2019 amidst pro-democracy protests, a record 71.2 percent of registered voters participated. RADAR SWEEP MUSHROOM MATTERS — It’s looking like mushroom season . From creating vegan leather to using magic mushroom’s psilocybin to treat mental health disorders, people are viewing mushrooms in a new light. The peculiar looking organisms are ingrained into daily life more than you may imagine and that’s why Merlin Sheldrake released a book about mushrooms in 2020. Since then, Sheldrake has worked other forms of media from movies to articles to show society the many wonders of mushrooms — and how we rely on mushrooms every day. In this story for The New Republic, Adam Federman explores one man’s mission to change the public perception of mushrooms in a society increasingly more reliant on them. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1978: A stream of mourners cross the plaza in front of the Knesset, Israel's parliament, to pay their respects to former Prime Minister Golda Meir, who died in Jerusalem at age 80 three days prior. | Aris Saris/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   A message from bp: bp added more than $70 billion to the US economy last year by keeping oil and gas flowing and developing more lower carbon energy. It’s and, not or. See what doing both means for energy nationwide.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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