Tuesday, October 29, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: What the campaign feels like in Arizona


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By Charlie Mahtesian

A "Vote Early" banner hangs over Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake speaking during a campaign rally with former President Donald Trump at Mullett Arena in Tempe, Arizona on Oct. 24.

A "Vote Early" banner hangs over Arizona Republican Senate candidate Kari Lake speaking during a campaign rally with former President Donald Trump at Mullett Arena in Tempe, Arizona on Oct. 24. | Rebecca Noble/AFP via Getty Images


MARICOPA’S MOMENT — Arizona was the site of Joe Biden’s narrowest victory in 2020 — he won by a mere 10,457 votes — and it unleashed a hurricane of election denialism, false fraud claims and disinformation that upended the state’s political landscape.

The state Republican Party fractured in the aftermath. Democrats picked up a Senate seat and the governorship two years later. Biden’s victory marked the end of an era in which Republicans dominated presidential races in this traditionally red state. Between 1952 and 2016, Arizona voted Democratic just once (a close victory for Bill Clinton in 1996) and punched above its weight by producing two GOP nominees, Barry Goldwater and John McCain.

The secret of Biden’s success was flipping Phoenix’s Maricopa County, where roughly 60 percent of the state vote is cast. He was the first Democrat to win the presidential vote in Maricopa since 1948 and it doomed Trump’s chances. This year, Maricopa once again looms large — the Phoenix media market has seen more than $326 million in ad spending so far, according to AdImpact.

As part of Nightly’s efforts to illuminate the battleground states that will decide the presidency, tonight we’ll hear from POLITICO politics editor David Siders, who spent several days there recently reporting a story.

What issues are dominating the political debate in Arizona this year? Are they different than in any of the other battleground states?

The issues are much the same — the economy, immigration, the state of democracy, abortion rights. And I tend to think that you can’t spend much time in the battlegrounds, or anywhere else for that matter, and conclude there are huge regional variations in the issues motivating people.

But since we’re talking about tiny margins that are likely to make the difference next week, sure. Arizona’s a border state, so even if much of its growth is fueled by people moving in from other states, there’s perhaps a better understanding of border politics than in a lot of places. That isn’t great for Democrats. When asked about the effect that recent immigrants from Mexico and Latin America have had on life in the state, voters are far less likely to say “better” than “worse.” Remember this is the state of S.B. 1070 . And it’s where Trump went the other day to describe the United States, in one of his anti-migrant diatribes, as “like a garbage can for the world.

The other issue that could resonate a little differently in Arizona than elsewhere is one that’s much better for Democrats: abortion. There’s a measure on the ballot to codify abortion rights in the state constitution. It looks like it’s going to pass . Given how motivating the issue has been in other states, Democrats hope it can help drive up turnout for Harris, too.

Since 1953, Arizona has elected just four Democratic senators. But Democrat Ruben Gallego has held a steady lead over Republican Kari Lake for months in this year’s open Senate race. What are the dynamics shaping that race?

If independent Sen. Kyrsten Sinema had stayed in the race and made it a three-way contest, things might have been different. As it stands, Lake is done for, if the polls that have her trailing by about 6 percentage points are anywhere close to right (She insisted when I saw her outside an event there that they aren’t, of course).

What’s striking is that the same surveys that show Trump ahead in his race show Lake behind in hers. This was the candidate who was once a rising star of the MAGA movement — and, stylistically at least, one of the closest approximations you could find to the former president.

So what gives? For one thing, unlike Trump, she carries the baggage of having lost her only prior bid for office in Arizona, in the gubernatorial race in 2022, even if she is still challenging the result. Her approval ratings are underwater. And in a state where moderate Republicans and independents have a lot of pull, it probably didn’t help that she bragged in the midterms that she drove a stake through the heart of the McCain machine.

Then there are the mechanics. Gallego is vastly out-raising and out-spending Lake. That’s allowing him to swamp the airwaves with ads promoting his humble upbringing and Marine Corps service while pillorying Lake for her past comments on abortion.

Speaking of Lake, the Arizona Republican Party has been badly infected by election denial fever, with Lake playing a leading role. How might the divide on the right affect the presidential contest?                                                              

For one thing, it’ll be interesting to see how Lake responds if she loses but Trump wins — which would seem to make the conspiracy peddling more difficult, though probably not impossible.

Election denialism is still rampant in Arizona. A recent CBS News/YouGov poll found more than 70 percent of Republicans in the state still don’t believe Joe Biden legitimately won the 2020 election in the state. And just 9 percent of Trump supporters are very confident that this election will be run fairly and accurately.

But there are a lot of independents — and a slice of Republicans — who don’t feel that way. And though many people who have adopted Trump’s lie that the 2020 election was rigged say they care about democracy, too, the issue does seem to be a point of strength for Harris in Arizona. Among voters for whom democracy is a major factor, according to the same CBS/YouGov poll, Harris leads Trump 57 percent to 42 percent.

In a state where youth voters turned out in record numbers in 2020, Kamala Harris is lagging with younger voters, especially young men and younger Latinos. What’s the problem?

Part of it is just the numbers across the country. Trump has made inroads nationally with young Latino men, and there are a lot of them in the West.

But why does Harris seem to be lagging in Arizona in particular? Our colleague Megan Messerly, who was in the state recently to write about precisely this , found a lot of apathy or resignation among young voters — and a sense from some of them that Democrats hadn’t done anything to improve their lives. Even if the economy is humming, housing costs are high and education is expensive.

And young voters don’t have as much of a comparison to previous administrations to draw as older ones do. Democrats are trying to make the election, in part, a referendum on Trump. That may be a hard sell for some young voters who, as Megan writes, “were in elementary school … last time [Trump] took office.”

What does Donald Trump’s path to victory look like in Arizona? What about Kamala Harris?

Republicans have a registration advantage in Arizona, so Trump’s path to victory is to juice the base while trying to scare moderate Republicans and independents — even some who might be uncomfortable voting for him — away from Harris. The hardline rhetoric on immigration is a big part of that.

And then there’s the economy, which to hear Trump tell it, might as well be shot to hell. Indications are that it isn’t, especially in Maricopa, the state’s largest county. But people in Arizona, as elsewhere, aren’t feeling that, and the issue is an advantage for Trump. While all the battlegrounds are tight, the polling looks a little better for him in Arizona than in some other states.

Harris needs women to turn out in big numbers. But she also has to do what Biden did in 2020, when he won independents by a double-digit margin in the state. Pulling over moderate Republicans would help, too. That’s why she’s running ads featuring endorsements from Republicans.

Harris is winning some of those voters. But our colleague Ally Mutnick, who was in the state recently to report on the Senate race, notes that the pool of independents and infrequent voters there includes some of the constituencies Trump seems to be making gains with, like Latino men. Some of those people are the ones who, while supportive of Gallego in the Senate race, are breaking for Trump at the top of the ticket.

Lightning round question: Name one place, person or thing we should be watching in Arizona on Election Night.

I’d be watching the parking lot outside the Maricopa County elections office. If Trump wins Arizona, or if the result is decisive in other states, it may not amount to much. But it’s not hard to imagine a repeat of the protests that started there following the 2020 election, before the state morphed into a hotbed of election denialism.

Bill Gates, the Republican county supervisor who gained national attention for his resistance to election disinformation in the state following the 2020 election, told me the other day that “at this point, I would say the threats are certainly down from where they have been.”

But, he said, “As those words come out of my mouth, I’m knocking on wood.”

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie.

What'd I Miss?

****GANNETT*****

— USA Today and its 200-plus local affiliates punt on presidential endorsement: USA Today and the 200-plus local publications under its umbrella will not endorse a presidential candidate , the latest in a slew of non-endorsements among major national outlets that have left the media industry reeling. The Gannett-owned newspaper, which oversees a network of hundreds of local affiliates, announced that none of its publications would make an endorsement in this year’s neck-and-neck presidential election — joining The Washington Post and the Los Angeles Times as Election Day nears.

— Man serving 30 years for attacking Nancy Pelosi’s husband gets a life term on state charges: The man who was sentenced to 30 years in federal prison for attacking the husband of former House Speaker Nancy Pelosi with a hammer in their California home was sentenced today to life in prison without the possibility of parole following a separate state trial. A San Francisco jury in June found David DePape guilty of charges including aggravated kidnapping, first-degree burglary and false imprisonment of an elder. The punishment in the state trial will run concurrently with the federal sentence.

— Judge Aileen Cannon says Trump’s praise doesn’t warrant her recusal in Trump-related cases: U.S. District Judge Aileen Cannon said the praise former President Donald Trump has repeatedly lavished on her — and the “speculation” that he could promote her if elected president — are not enough to warrant her recusal from cases involving Trump . Cannon issued her seven-page decision in response to a motion by Ryan Routh, who is charged with attempting to assassinate Trump on his Mar-a-Lago golf course last month. Defense attorneys for Routh had argued that Cannon’s appointment to the bench by Trump in 2020 and her work on other Trump cases presented the appearance of bias that warranted Cannon turning over Routh’s case to another judge.

Nightly Road to 2024

SNEAK PREVIEW — The Harris campaign has released excerpts of Vice President Kamala Harris’ speech at the Ellipse tonight. While the speech will not be solely focused on democracy and Jan. 6, Harris will visually and rhetorically remind voters of that day, as she speaks from the place where Donald Trump helped incite a mob that went on to attack the Capitol. The vice president will walk the crowd through his “priorities for a second term,” saying Trump is “unstable,” “obsessed with revenge,” “consumed with grievance” and “out for unchecked power.” She will say her opponent will use four more years in the White House to prosecute his “enemies list,” pardon Jan. 6 defendants and use the military against American citizens whom he has called the “enemy from within.”

BREATHTAKING AMOUNT OF LOVE — Donald Trump during remarks today didn’t acknowledge that there was any backlash over a comedian who made disparaging comments about Puerto Rico at a recent rally in New York City. “The love in that room, it was breathtaking — and you could have filled it many many times with the people that were unable to get in,” he said of his Sunday rally at Madison Square Garden.   HUH? BIGOTRY, RACISM, HATE, ATTACKS....Where was that LOVE?

‘ADDRESS IT AND MOVE ON’ — A Republican member of the Puerto Rican community who will appear at Donald Trump’s rally in Allentown, Pennsylvania, today says he plans to address the recent rally remarks against Puerto Ricans when he speaks onstage tonight — and is urging the former president to as well.

“I definitely think the president should address it,” Tim Ramos said in an interview today. “It happened. Address it and move on.”

Ramos, a former Allentown mayoral candidate whose parents are from Puerto Rico, has already endorsed Trump. He still backs the former president, but called the racist and vulgar remarks against Puerto Rico and Latinos by a comedian at Trump’s recent New York rally “stupid” and “foolish stereotypes,” adding: “I would have pulled him off the stage had it been me.”

DOUBLE WHIFF — Federal judges turned aside two Republican-led challenges to voter registration procedures in North Carolina and Pennsylvania today, a double-whiff in the party’s quest to make last-minute changes to the voter rolls.

In North Carolina, the 4th Circuit Court of Appeals declined to allow a state court to hear a GOP suit seeking an additional verification procedure for about 225,000 voters. Instead, the 4th Circuit said, the case belongs in federal court — a decision that likely precludes any relief for the Republican Party in the case, since federal courts rarely order state election officials to change voting procedures shortly before Election Day.

Separately, a judge in Pennsylvania tossed a lawsuit brought by several GOP members of Congress that could have upended the state’s procedures for handling overseas ballots. U.S. District Judge Christopher Conner, a George W. Bush appointee based in Harrisburg, said the lawmakers committed “inexcusable delay” in bringing the suit just weeks before Election Day and rooted their fight in “phantom fears of foreign malfeasance.”

AROUND THE WORLD
The leader of Lithuania's Social Democratic Party Vilija Blinkevičiūtė speaks at a press conference after winning the second round of Lithuania's parliamentary election.

The leader of Lithuania's Social Democratic Party Vilija Blinkevičiūtė speaks at a press conference after winning the second round of Lithuania's parliamentary election. | Petras Malukas/AFP via Getty Images


BEGGING OFF — The leader of Lithuania’s election-winning Social Democrats, Vilija Blinkevičiūtė, has suggested she would rather remain a member of the European Parliament than become the country’s prime minister.

Blinkevičiūtė will announce her decision Wednesday morning, but she has already discussed the issue with Lithuanian President Gitanas Nausėda, local media reported.

Nausėda said he did not want to make Blinkevičiūtė’s reasons public and that the Social Democratic leader could temporarily hold the post of prime minister and hand it over later. Local media reported that health problems could be behind the party leader’s decision.

SLOWDOWN AHEAD — German carmaker Audi will close its Brussels plant on Feb. 28 next year, the company’s management announced at a special works council meeting today.

Management added it is still in talks with a potential buyer to take over the Belgian plant, which has been facing the ax for several months due to poor sales and a crisis affecting its owner, the Volkswagen Group.

Large demonstrations were held at the facility in mid-September to save the plant and jobs.

Audi is a subsidiary of Volkswagen, which just two days ago reported plans to close three German plants. It would be the first time in the company’s 87-year history that it has closed production facilities in its home market.

While unprecedented, the closures come as no surprise, as the automaker is facing a sharp decline in sales in China, its core market, and is also being challenged by Chinese competitors entering the European market.

Nightly Number

$100 million

The amount that the pro-Harris super PAC Future Forward is pouring into a new round of national ads to broadcast her closing message to voters across every major platform in the campaign’s final week.

RADAR SWEEP

MEAT-PACKED OUT — Manhattan’s Meatpacking District was once awash with people for whom the neighborhood was named — meatpackers operating out of huge warehouses. But in the last few decades, the neighborhood transformed into a nightlife hotspot, and those warehouses that once held meat became home to clubs, bars and other retail locations. Now, per an announcement this week from New York Deputy Mayor Maria Torres-Springer, it looks like the last of the meatpackers will soon be gone, pending an agreement with the final tenants of a city-owned meat market. For Curbed, Adriane Quinlan goes into the history of the neighborhood, how it’s changed and what its relationship is with the city today.

Parting Image
On this date in 1992: Then-Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton greets supporters at the University of Toledo in Ohio during a campaign stop.

On this date in 1992: Then-Democratic presidential nominee Bill Clinton greets supporters at the University of Toledo in Ohio during a campaign stop. | Stephan Savoia/AP


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The End of Empathy

 

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The End of Empathy

Evening Dispatch


As Donald goes increasingly off the rails, former members of his administration go on the record about Donald’s admiration for Adolf Hitler, and yet another woman comes forward with a credible allegation of sexual assault, I’ve once again been confronting this horrible conundrum: Why is it that the more awful things Donald does, the less it seems to matter?

You know the drill—any one of those things would be disqualifying for any other candidate, Democrat or Republican, The sexual assaults, inciting an insurrection, two impeachments, stealing classified documents, the criminal convictions—a tiny fraction of all the horrific acts Donald has committed over the decades.

But there’s one thing fundamental to who Donald is that should be enough to convince any sane American not to vote for him: He has no empathy. This means that he is incapable of caring about the suffering of other human beings and that is why he’s so comfortable causing it.

I think it’s important to know why.

Back in 2016, I had no doubt that having Donald in the White House was going to be worse than most people could possibly imagine, and that’s because I knew two things most people didn’t: First, Donald’s extreme narcissism, which is undergirded by an insecurity so deep it has rendered him a black hole of need—makes it very easy for people to manipulate him—especially if they have real power (think Putin and Kim Jong Un). 

Second, Donald’s increasing lack of empathy will drive him to even greater and more depraved depths of cruelty as he continues to deteriorate psychologically.

Because both his narcissism and lack of empathy informed everything Donald did when he was in the White House, he caused incalculable harm, especially to those people he considered enemies or those who were in some way disposable or beneath his notice. 

I thought about that a lot during the recent hurricanes. Remember Donald’s stunt when he visited Puerto Rico in the wake of Hurricane Maria? his way of “helping” was to throw rolls of paper towels at those who survived.

For decades, Donald has been willing to use other people’s tragedies to inflate his sense of his own superiority or to increase his status in the eyes of the world. On September 11, every single New Yorker was in serious pain. We were devastated and we were in shock. We were terrified because we didn’t yet know what we had lost, and because we didn’t know if things were going to get worse. Donald seemed to be the only person who didn’t care about the tragedy that was still unfolding. As Ground Zero still smoldered, he went on the air to say (falsely) that his building was now the tallest in Manhattan, as if it actually mattered.

Sometimes, Donald acts as if the suffering of others bores him. Two decades before the World Trade Center was attacked, my dad was dying in an emergency room that was only a ten-minute drive from my grandparents’ house. Instead of going to the hospital to be with their son, my grandparents stayed home and waited by the phone for the doctors to call. Donald went to the movies with my aunt Elizabeth. My father died alone.

Donald’s shocking indifference during COVID reminded me a lot of the way my family treated my father—both in life and death. In August 2020, just before the U.S. surpassed 150,000 deaths from COVID, Jonathan Swan interviewed Donald and when he pointed out that a thousand Americans were dying every day, Donald said, “It is what it is.” 


That was a popular expression in my family, and hearing it sent a chill down my spine because when they said it, it always represented a cruel indifference to somebody else in despair.

As with most of the worst things about Donald, we can blame my grandfather, Fred.


If we’re lucky, as infants and toddlers we have at least one emotionally available parent who consistently fulfills our needs and responds to our desires for attention: somebody who holds us and comforts us and soothes us. Getting the right kind of attention at a young age creates a sense of safety and security that ultimately allows us to explore the world around us without too much fear or anxiety. We learn that we can count on the bedrock support of at least one caregiver. 

We also experience mirroring, which is the process through which an attuned parent teaches toddlers how their minds work and, in turn, how to understand the world. Mirroring is the root of empathy.

If we’re really unlucky, like my dad and Donald and their other siblings were, you have a father who’s a sociopath and a mother who, for various reasons, can’t function as the primary caregiver. If you want to know what it looks like when a child has not been sufficiently held, soothed, or mirrored, you just have to look at Donald Trump.

My grandfather’s sociopathy aside, his kids might have been ok if my grandmother hadn’t become seriously ill when Donald was about two and half—perhaps the most crucial developmental period in a child’s life. She had several surgeries and, for about a year, either because she was in the hospital or because she was in pain, she was either emotionally or physically absent. This had the greatest impact on her two youngest children, Donald and his little brother, Robert.

Because of their ages, the two boys were incredibly vulnerable, especially since there was no one else to fill the void. Fred, by default, was the only available parent, but he had no interest in parenting—especially young children. Donald’s needs, which had been met inconsistently even before his mother’s illness, were barely met by his father at all.

Fred was much more likely to be a source of fear or rejection, which put Donald in an intolerable position: being totally dependent on the one person who was also likely to be a source of his terror.

In order to cope, Donald began to develop powerful but primitive defenses, marked by an increasing hostility toward other people, especially people in authority, and a seeming indifference to his mother’s absence and father’s neglect. 

The indifference became, over time, a kind of learned helplessness. Eventually Donald would have a very difficult time getting any of his emotional needs met at all because, to protect himself, he had to act as if he didn’t have any. In place of those needs grew a kind of grievance and behaviors—link bullying, disrespect, aggression—that served their purpose in the moment but became more problematic over time. 

It’s possible Donald could have overcome these early deficits but, unfortunately for him and everybody else on this planet, those behaviors became hardened into personality traits. Why? Because his father came to value them. Fred Trump wanted a son who was a “killer.” When that turned out not to be my father, Fred started to validate, encourage, and champion all of the worst things about Donald. This made him extremely useful not just to my grandfather, but, over time, to other powerful men who learned that flattery was the only weapon they needed to wield to get Donald to do their bidding.

As unlikely as it might seem, the one thing Donald has most wanted in his life, is to be loved. It’s also the one thing his father, who gave him a massive fortune, power, and attention at the expense of every other person in the family, rendered impossible.

That’s the origin of Donald’s grievance and his rage and his indifference to anybody who suffers because, as far as he’s concerned, nobody suffers as much as he does. Donald has never been loved—he has only been of use. That’s what makes him want to burn it all down because the pain of that reality can never be assuaged, only deflected.

In 2016 and 2020, the thing that most troubled me, that wounded me, that I took so personally, was how many people were willing to overlook or embrace Donald’s cruelty.

In 2024, it should be clear that he’s never going to get better, he is only going to get worse. Much worse. We know this.

The only thing we don’t know yet is what’s going to become of the rest of us.

Top News: 'And This Is Just the Traceable Money'

 


Our very future is at stake.

This remains a five-alarm fire. We have just days left in our Fall Campaign and the numbers we’re seeing are not good. This is terrifying for us, especially when everything we cherish is on the ballot just a week away.

Tuesday, October 29, 2024

■ Today's Top News 


'Not for Long,' Says Israeli Defense Minister After Hezbollah Names New Leader

"The road to your arrest and The Hague won't be long either, you genocidal war criminal," one observer retorted.

By Brett Wilkins


Israeli Defense Minister Yoav Gallant said Tuesday on social media that Hezbollah's pick of Naim Qassem to lead the Lebanon-based political and paramilitary group would be "temporary"—a remark seen by many as an assassination threat.

Hezbollah tapped Qassem, its longtime deputy chief, to lead the group following Israel's assassination of former Secretary-General Hassan Nasrallah in Beirut last month.

"Temporary appointment. Not for long," Gallant said on X, the social media site formerly known as Twitter, in response to Hezbollah's move.

The state of Israel's official Arabic X account said Qassem's "tenure in this position may be the shortest in the history of this terrorist organization if he follows in the footsteps of his predecessors."

"There is no solution in Lebanon except to dismantle this organization as a military force," the account added.

Since earlier this month, when Israeli forces launched a ground invasion accompanied by a massive ongoing bombing campaign against Lebanon, nearly 2,800 Lebanese have been killed and more than 12,700 others injured, the country's Ministry of Health said Tuesday. The ministry added that 82 Lebanese have been killed and another 180 injured over the past 24 hours alone.

Since shortly after October 7, 2023—when Hamas led the deadliest single attack on Israel in its history—Hezbollah has been launching rockets and other projectiles at Lebanon's southern neighbor, killing and wounding scores of Israelis.

The International Criminal Court (ICC) in The Hague, Netherlands is currently weighing whether to approve Prosecutor Karim Khan's application for warrants to arrest Gallant—who responded to the Hamas-led attack by ordering a "complete siege" of Gaza that has been blamed for the starvation and sickening of hundreds of thousands of Palestinians—and Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. Khan also sought ICC arrest warrants for three Hamas leaders, at least two of whom have been assassinated by Israel.

Over 388 days, Israeli forces have killed at least 43,020 Palestinians in Gaza, most of them women and children. At least 101,100 others have been wounded. More than 10,000 Palestinians are also missing and presumed dead and buried beneath the ruins of Gaza. Almost everyone in the embattled Gaza Strip has been forcibly displaced, often multiple times.

Responding to Gallant's threat, Somali-Australian journalist Najat Abdi said on X that "the road to your arrest and The Hague won't be long either, you genocidal war criminal."

Gallant's remarks came amid reports that Israeli and Hezbollah negotiators are "in the advanced stages" of hammering out cease-fire agreement that would lead to Israeli troops withdrawing from Lebanon, where they have been suffering high casualties at the hands of Hezbollah fighters.

One important unanswered question is whether Hezbollah will accept a deal to end hostilities with Israel without a cease-fire in Gaza.




'This Is Just the Traceable Money': $2 Billion Pumped Into 2024 Election by Billionaire Families

"It's no secret that political spending is a huge way for billionaires to rig the system to their liking," said Americans for Tax Fairness. "Enough is enough."

By Julia Conley

A new analysis out Tuesday shows that 150 of the nation's wealthiest families have poured nearly $2 billion into this year's U.S. election—the latest evidence bolstering calls for new taxes on the super rich and an end to unlimited campaign spending.

The new report from Americans for Tax Fairness, published Tuesday, shows how spending by 150 of the richest families in the U.S. has smashed campaign spending records, with $700 million more spent than the $1.2 billion that wealthy donors poured into the 2020 campaign.

Republicans, including GOP presidential nominee Donald Trump, have been the biggest beneficiary of spending by these billionaire families, including those of Miriam Adelson, widow of casino magnate Sheldon Adelson; SpaceX and Tesla founder Elon Musk; and far-right activists Richard and Elizabeth Uihlein.

Trump "benefited from over $450 million of billionaire donations—more than three times as much as Vice President Kamala Harris, the Democratic nominee, who was the beneficiary of $143 million of billionaire contributions," reported ATF. "That's a 75%-25% split in Trump's favor."

Of the $1.9 billion that was spent on all federal campaigns by the richest families in the country, 72% or $1.36 billion went to Republican candidates, and 22% or $413 million went to Democrats.

The analysis was released weeks after The Associated Press and OpenSecrets reported Trump's small-dollar donations—those smaller than $200—made up fewer than a third of his contributions this election cycle, down from nearly half of his donations in 2020.

"Billionaire campaign spending on this scale drowns out the voices and concerns of ordinary Americans. It is one of the most obvious and disturbing consequences of the growth of billionaire fortunes, as well as being a prime indicator that the system regulating campaign finance has collapsed," said David Kass, executive director of ATF. "We need to rein in the political power of billionaire families by better taxing them and by effectively limiting their campaign donations. Until we do both, we can only expect the influence of the super-rich over our politics and government to escalate."

Trump has made clear that he would push for policies that enrich corporations and the ultra-wealthy if he wins on November 5, promising to extend the tax cuts he signed into law in 2017, which disproportionately benefited the rich. An alleged quid pro quo offer from Trump to oil executives, promising deregulation and expanded drilling if they donated $1 billion to his campaign, is being investigated by the U.S. Senate.

Harris has endorsed President Joe Biden's proposal to tax unrealized stock gains for people whose net worth is at least $100 million, and has proposed a minimum income tax for billionaires and a rollback of Trump's tax cuts.

ATF pointed out that the billionaire families in the report have managed to spend billions of dollars on the election while spending just 0.07% of their wealth.

"The median American household is worth about $200,000, making an equivalent political donation for them just $140," said ATF. "This means that a handful of billionaires have the financial political influence of more than 13.5 million ordinary families."

The group emphasized that the $1.9 billion included in the analysis "is almost certainly an undercount," both because it doesn't account for "typical flurries of last-minute fundraising" and "because there are ways of financially supporting campaigns that are anonymous or at least hard to trace back to the original donor."

"These methods include donations to so-called 'dark money' groups that spend the money on outside efforts or in turn donate it to campaign committees; and contributions to super PACs that contribute to each other in long chains," said ATF.

"It's time we end Citizens United and start taxing billionaires on their enormous, untaxed wealth gains," said ATF, referring to the 2010 Supreme Court ruling that reversed decades of campaign finance restrictions and allowed unlimited spending through super PACs.

"Our democracy and the voices of working families depend on it," said the group.






'Frightening': Over 1 in 3 of World's Tree Species Face Extinction

"Trees directly underpin the survival of a staggering array of species—including us," said one scientist.

By Brett Wilkins

More than one-third of Earth's tree species are at risk of extinction, with logging, forest destruction for agriculture and urban development, and human-caused global heating most responsible for this "frightening" development that threatens life as we know it, according to a report published Monday.

The 2024 Global Tree Assessment—released at the United Nations Biodiversity Conference (COP16) in Cali, Colombia and published as part of this year's International Union for Conservation of Nature (IUCN) "Red List" of threatened species—warns that more than 16,000 of the 47,000 tree species analyzed in the report are at risk of extinction.

The report blames deforestation and catastrophic global heating, caused by human burning of fossil fuels, as the main drivers of tree extinction. More than 5,000 tree species on the IUCN Red List are felled for construction timber, while 2,000 species are used for fuel, food, and medicines.

According to the report:

Trees now account for over one-quarter of species on the IUCN Red List, and the number of threatened trees is more than double the number of all threatened birds, mammals, reptiles, and amphibians combined. Tree species are at risk of extinction in 192 countries around the world...

The highest proportion of threatened trees is found on islands. Island trees are at particularly high risk due to deforestation for urban development and agriculture at all scales, as well as invasive species, pests, and diseases. Climate change is increasingly threatening trees, especially in the tropics, through sea-level rise and stronger, more frequent storms.

"Trees are essential to support life on Earth through their vital role in ecosystems, and millions of people depend upon them for their lives and livelihoods," IUCN director-general Grethel Aguilar said in a statement. "As the IUCN Red List celebrates 60 years of impact, this assessment highlights its importance as a barometer of life, but also, crucially, as a unique tool guiding action to reverse the decline of nature."

Climate, environmental, and biodiversity defenders pointed to the new report with alarm.

"The significance of the Global Tree Assessment cannot be overstated, given the importance of trees to ecosystems and people," said Eimear Nic Lughadha, senior research leader in conservation assessment and analysis at the U.K. Royal Botanic Gardens, Kew. "We hope this frightening statistic of 1 in 3 trees facing extinction will incentivize urgent action and be used to inform conservation plans."

Fran Price, the Worldwide Fund for Nature's forest practice lead, said in a statement that "IUCN's Global Tree Assessment paints a shocking picture of the state of the world's trees."

"Trees are invaluable allies in tackling climate change and a critical foundation of our natural world," Price added. "The report is an eye-opening reminder that current efforts are falling short in safeguarding these vital natural assets. It's time to take stronger action against illegal logging and trade and enact stronger laws that protect our trees."

David Hole, an IUCN-U.S. board member and Conservation International scientist, asserted that "trees directly underpin the survival of a staggering array of species—including us."

"This latest IUCN update is flashing a warning light that those green giants need more of our attention and support the world over," he continued. "Thriving, naturally diverse forests are essential in mitigating both climate change and biodiversity loss. Not only do they store more carbon, they are also more resilient to natural and human-driven threats."

"We know what we have to do," Hole added. "We need to provide real and effective protection for tree species across the globe—particularly those that are imminently threatened. And we must do that in ways that support local people and communities, and doesn't cut them off from what is often a critical resource."

There is hope: Besides cutting carbon emissions and combating deforestation, Hole pointed to the "enormous untapped potential" of restoring native trees in previously degraded agricultural lands.

"Not only could we store more carbon, we could also enhance food security, support biodiversity, and increase agricultural systems' resilience to the myriad pressures that climate change is increasingly placing them under," he said. "These are the types of innovative approaches that can make a big positive difference—and it is vital we start implementing them at scale."



'Words Fail': WMO Report Finds CO2 Accumulating at Record Levels

"The report is very clear: This crisis is driven by the profit-driven production of coal, oil, and gas," one climate advocacy group said.

By Olivia Rosane

Climate-heating carbon dioxide is accumulating in the atmosphere more rapidly than at any time since humans evolved.

That's just one of the alarming findings from the World Meteorological Organization's (WMO) Greenhouse Gas Bulletinreleased Monday, which found that all three main greenhouse gases reached record atmospheric levels in 2023.

"Words fail," the group Climate Defiance wrote on social media in response to the news.

"Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception."

Atmospheric concentrations of CO2 hit 420.0 parts per million (ppm) in 2023, an increase of 151% since the Industrial Revolution and a level not seen since 3 to 5 million years ago, when global temperatures was 2-3°C hotter than today and sea levels were 10-20 meters higher. Methane hit 1,934 parts per billion (ppb)—or 265% higher than preindustrial levels—and nitrous oxide rose to 336.9 ppb, 125% of pre-1750 levels.

"Another year. Another record," WMO Secretary-General Celeste Saulo said in a statement. "This should set alarm bells ringing among decision-makers. We are clearly off track to meet the Paris agreement goal of limiting global warming to well below 2°C and aiming for 1.5°C above preindustrial levels. These are more than just statistics. Every part per million and every fraction of a degree temperature increase has a real impact on our lives and our planet."

Carbon dioxide rose by 2.3 ppm in 2023. While that was higher than the 2022 increase, it was lower than in 2019-2021. However, on a longer-term scale, atmospheric CO2 rose by 11.4% in the past 10 years, a record increase during human existence. The burning of fossil fuels is the primary cause of this increase.

"The report is very clear: This crisis is driven by the profit-driven production of coal, oil, and gas," Climate Defiance wrote. "Because of these fuels, planet-heating pollution levels have gone up by 51.5%—since 1990 alone."

However, 2023's CO2 increases were also caused by forest fires—including a record-breaking fire season in Canada—as well as a possible reduction in the ability of Earth's natural carbon sinks to absorb the greenhouse gas. While vegetation-related CO2 emissions are partially influenced by natural cycles—El Niño years like 2023 are drier and tend to see more fires—they could also be a sign of dangerous feedback loops.

"The Bulletin warns that we face a potential vicious cycle," said WMO Deputy Secretary-General Ko Barrett. "Natural climate variability plays a big role in carbon cycle. But in the near future, climate change itself could cause ecosystems to become larger sources of greenhouse gases."

"Wildfires could release more carbon emissions into the atmosphere, whilst the warmer ocean might absorb less CO2. Consequently, more CO2 could stay in the atmosphere to accelerate global warming," Barrett explained. "These climate feedbacks are critical concerns to human society."

The report also said that even if emissions were to cease rapidly, the amount of carbon dioxide in the atmosphere means that the current rise in temperatures would linger for decades.

The rise in methane is also a concern. While it increased less in 2023 than in 2022, it hit a record-high increase over the last five years, and some of this could be due to climate feedback loops such as the melting of the Arctic permafrost or greater emissions from wetlands and other natural ecosystems as temperatures rise.

As Climate Defiance noted, WMO's graph showing the rise of methane appears to move from a linear to an exponential progression as it approaches 2023.

"It could literally be the graph that defines human history," Climate Defiance wrote.

"The most infuriating part is it didn't have to be this way," the group continued. "Had we started taking action in the 1970s—when the threat became clear—we could have easily stopped the crisis by now. Instead we gorged ourselves on SUVs and McMansions as politicians dithered and delayed."

The Greenhouse Gas Bulletin is one of several annual reports released ahead of United Nations climate conferences; this year, world leaders are scheduled to gather in Baku, Azerbaijan starting on November 11 for COP29. The Bulletin comes alongside other reports finding that national policies are not on track to reduce emissions in line with the Paris agreement temperature goals.

Last week, the U.N. Emissions Gap Report concluded that current policies put the world on course for as much as 3.1°C of warming. Also on Monday, the U.N. Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) released its 2024 Nationally Determined Contributions (NDC) Synthesis Report, in which it assesses the commitments that different nations have made to reduce emissions under the Paris agreement.

It found that current NDCs would cut greenhouse gas emissions by 2.6% of 2019 levels by 2030, a far cry from the 43% needed to have a chance at limiting global heating to 1.5°C by 2100 and preventing ever-worsening climate impacts.

"Greenhouse gas pollution at these levels will guarantee a human and economic trainwreck for every country, without exception," U.N. Climate Change Executive Secretary Simon Stiell said in a statement of the current 2030 trajectory.

"Today's NDC Synthesis Report must be a turning point, ending the era of inadequacy and sparking a new age of acceleration, with much bolder new national climate plans from every country due next year," Stiell said. "The report's findings are stark but not surprising—current national climate plans fall miles short of what's needed to stop global heating from crippling every economy, and wrecking billions of lives and livelihoods across every country."

"By contrast," Stiell continued, "much bolder new national climate plans can not only avert climate chaos—done well, they can be transformational for people and prosperity in every nation."

Climate Defiance also called for renewed ambition.

"It is not too late," the group said. "There is still a small window of opportunity. Together, we will unite to stop our own demise. We will rise. We will defy all odds. There is no alternative."



With Israel's Move to Ban UNRWA, 'A New Way Has Been Found to Kill Children'

"It'll likely see the collapse of the humanitarian system in Gaza," warned a spokesperson for the U.N. Children's Fund.

By Jake Johnson


Humanitarian groups and United Nations officials issued dire warnings Tuesday about the potentially catastrophic consequences of Israeli lawmakers' vote to ban the U.N. agency for Palestinian refugees, the body primarily responsible for delivering lifesaving aid to the people of Gaza and the West Bank, including East Jerusalem.

James Elder, a spokesperson for the United Nations Children's Fund (UNICEF), said Tuesday that if the U.N. Relief and Works Agency for Palestine Refugees in the Near East (UNRWA) is unable to operate due to the measures passed overwhelmingly by the Israeli Knesset on Monday, "it'll likely see the collapse of the humanitarian system in Gaza."

"So a decision such as this suddenly means that a new way has been found to kill children," said Elder.

The legislation that Israeli lawmakers passed in a 92-10 vote bars UNRWA—a frequent target of Israeli smear campaigns and military attacks—from operating or providing "any service" within "in the sovereign territory of the state of Israel."

Israeli lawmakers also passed a measure declaring UNRWA a "terror" group, barring Israeli officials from engaging in any contact with the agency.

The Guardian noted that the newly passed measures—which are set to be implemented within 90 days—are "expected to lead to the closure of UNRWA's East Jerusalem headquarters and would effectively block the delivery of humanitarian aid into Gaza via Rafah."

"The severing of diplomatic relations would preclude Israel from issuing entry and work permits to foreign UNRWA staff and prevent coordination with the Israeli military to permit aid shipments," the newspaper added.

"Humanitarian actors rely on coordination with UNWRA to deliver aid and alleviate suffering. UNWRA cannot be replaced by NGOs."

Agnès Callamard, the secretary-general of Amnesty Internationalwarned in a statement Tuesday that the measures represent "an outright attack on the rights of Palestinian refugees."

"It is clearly designed to make it impossible for the agency to operate in the occupied Palestinian territory by forcing the closure of the UNRWA headquarters in East Jerusalem and ending visas for its staff," said Callamard. "It amounts to the criminalization of humanitarian aid and will worsen an already catastrophic humanitarian crisis."

"This appalling, inhumane law will only exacerbate the suffering of Palestinians, who have endured unimaginable hardship since the horrific attacks by Hamas and other armed groups in southern Israel one year ago, and whose need for global support is greater than ever. The international community must be quick to condemn it in the strongest possible terms and exert any influence they have on the Israeli government to repeal it.”

The U.N. General Assembly established UNRWA in the aftermath of the 1948 Nakba, and the agency is central to humanitarian operations in the famine-stricken Gaza Strip—a role that aid groups described as necessary and irreplaceable. According to a World Health Organization official, roughly a third of the healthcare workers assisting the polio vaccination campaign in Gaza work with UNRWA.

"UNRWA plays a critical role in serving civilians in desperate need in Gaza," the International Rescue Committee (IRC) said Tuesday. "Humanitarian actors rely on coordination with UNRWA to deliver aid and alleviate suffering. UNRWA cannot be replaced by NGOs like IRC."

"The bill passed in the Israeli parliament is an unprecedented attack on a U.N. agency and, if implemented, would only worsen the humanitarian catastrophe," IRC added. "We strongly urge that this legislation is not applied. We continue to advocate for an immediate ceasefire to get aid in, to release the hostages, and to meet the growing and dire needs of the civilian population."

Sam Rose, deputy director of UNRWA affairs in Gaza, said in a CNN interview that "the entire humanitarian system" in the Palestinian enclave "relies every minute of every day on UNRWA to deliver services to 2 million people living in the worst possible conditions."

Implementation of the ban, Rose warned, "would be devastating for us, devastating for other aid agencies—but more importantly, for the population here that's suffering so much."



Urging Vote for Harris, Sanders Warns 'Trump and His Right-Wing Friends Are Worse' on Gaza

"Many of you have differences of opinion with Kamala Harris on Gaza—so do I," said Sen. Bernie Sanders. "But we cannot sit this election out. Trump has got to be defeated."

By Jake Johnson

With the high-stakes 2024 election just days away, progressive Sen. Bernie Sanders released a video late Monday addressing voters who are wary of supporting Democratic nominee Kamala Harris given her role in an administration that is supporting Israel's catastrophic war on the Gaza Strip.

Sanders (I-Vt.), who has rallied for Harris in key battleground states during the final stretch of the race, said he has been asked the same question repeatedly on the campaign trail: "I disagree with Kamala's position on the war in Gaza. How can I vote for her?"

The senator begins his response by counting himself among the critics of Israel's U.S.-backed war on Gaza, which he noted has killed more than 42,000 people—roughly two-thirds of them women, children, and elderly—and decimated the enclave's civilian infrastructure, including its healthcare system.

"I am doing everything I can to block U.S. military aid and offensive weapons sales to the right-wing extremist Netanyahu government in Israel," said Sanders, referring to Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu. "And I know that many of you share those feelings and some of you are saying, 'How can I vote for Kamala Harris if she is supporting this terrible war?'"

"That is a very fair question," the senator continued. The answer, from Sanders' perspective, is that "Donald Trump and his right-wing friends are worse" on Gaza.

Sanders said congressional Republicans "have worked overtime" to obstruct humanitarian aid efforts in Gaza while the Biden administration has tried to increase the flow of lifesaving assistance—though rights groups and the United Nations have criticized the administration for not doing nearly enough.

Trump, the Republican nominee, "has said Netanyahu is doing a good job and has said Biden is holding him back," Sanders observed. "He has suggested that the Gaza Strip would make excellent beachfront property for development."

"And it is no wonder Netanyahu prefers to have Donald Trump in office," the senator added. "But even more importantly—and this I promise you—after Kamala wins, we will together do everything that we can to change U.S. policy toward Netanyahu: an immediate cease-fire, the return of all hostages, a surge of massive humanitarian aid, the stopping of settler attacks in the West Bank, and the rebuilding of Gaza for the Palestinian people."

"Let me be clear: We will have, in my view, a much better chance of changing U.S. policy with Kamala than with Trump, who is extremely close to Netanyahu and sees him as a like-minded, right-wing extremist ally," said Sanders.

Watch the full video:

Sanders went on to note that "as important as Gaza is, and as strongly as many of us feel about this issue, it is not the only issue at stake in this election."

"If Trump wins, women in this country will suffer an enormous setback and lose the ability to control their own bodies," said Sanders. "That is not acceptable. If Trump wins, to be honest with you, the struggle against climate change is over. While virtually every scientist who has studied the issue understands that climate change is real and an existential threat to our country and the world, Trump believes it is a hoax."

"And if the United States, the largest economy in the world stops transforming our energy system away from fossil fuel, every other country—China, Europe, all over the world, they will do exactly the same thing, and God only knows the kind of planet we will leave to our kids and future generations," the senator added.

Sanders also pointed to Trump's plan to give another round of tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans "at a time of massive income and wealth inequality."

"This is the most consequential election in our lifetimes," the senator concluded. "Many of you have differences of opinion with Kamala Harris on Gaza—so do I. But we cannot sit this election out. Trump has got to be defeated. Let's do everything we can in the next week to make sure that Kamala Harris is our next president."

Sanders' case echoes arguments that other progressives have put forth in recent days amid concerns about voter apathy and discontent in critical swing states.

Last week, as Common Dreams reported, a coalition of community leaders in Arizona—including Palestinian, Muslim, and Arab organizers—wrote in an open letter that "voting for Kamala Harris is the best option for the Palestinian cause and all of our communities" and warned that a Trump victory "would be the worst possible outcome for the Palestinian people."

Georgia state Rep. Ruwa Romman (D-97), a Palestinian American lawmaker who was denied a speaking slot at the Democratic National Convention earlier this year, wrote for Rolling Stone on Monday that she will be voting for Harris in the November 5 election—though the Georgia representative emphasized that "this vote isn't for her."

"It's for the people in my district and state who cannot survive another Trump presidency. And yes, it's for my community and our allies who refuse to sit by while our resources are used to commit a genocide in our names," Romman wrote. "Unlike President Joe Biden, Vice President Harris has a mixed record on the issue. She voted no on more weapons to Israel in 2019 and she consistently advocated to get aid into Gaza. I personally shared with her during a rally in Atlanta in July that our community is willing to give her a chance, but we need the bombs to stop and need her to enforce our laws. She agreed that the violence must end so that aid can get in, and we can de-escalate a rapidly expanding regional war."

"Is that enough? Of course not," Romman added. "The urgency of this moment requires moral clarity and real leadership. And that is what we must continue demanding."

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