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Morning Digest: One Wisconsin Democrat bails on governor's race while another re-enters
Gov. Tony Evers, who'd avoided endorsing a successor, is now backing David Crowley
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Leading Off
WI-Gov
Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley re-entered Wisconsin’s volatile Democratic primary for governor with an endorsement from incumbent Tony Evers on Saturday, a day after Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez announced that she was dropping out after firing her campaign manager for alleged financial mismanagement.
Less than a month ago, Crowley and Rodriguez were two of seven Democrats running to replace Evers, who is not seeking a third term as leader of this perennial swing state. Former state Cabinet official Missy Hughes, however, quit in late June and endorsed Rodriguez, while Crowley did the same thing in early July.
Rodriguez’s own effort, though, had effectively collapsed a week earlier when she said that her now-former campaign manager had led her to believe she had far more money in her coffers than she actually did. The lieutenant governor initially said she would keep running, but her prospects were grim even before she disclosed Thursday she had just $35,000 in cash on hand at the end of June.
Just 10 days ago, though, Crowley had grown deeply pessimistic about his own prospects. In a statement announcing his departure from the contest, he said, “It has become clear that I will not be the Democratic nominee for governor, so today I am stepping out of this race, but I am not stepping away from the work.”
Crowley largely avoided specifics in explaining his return, though Rodriguez’s departure and Evers’ vote of confidence offer him an opening.
The governor’s decision to get involved also represents something of a reversal. Evers had long said he was unlikely to endorse a successor, something he acknowledged in a statement announcing his support for Crowley.
“I have indicated I did not plan to endorse anyone in the race for governor because I know each of the candidates and I wanted them to have the opportunity to make their case to Wisconsinites first, just like I did,” he said.
“I also believe that, in a race this close,” he continued, “Wisconsinites deserve to have the perspective of someone who's done the job, who understands what it takes, and who's had the benefit of spending years quietly watching how others in politics conduct themselves and treat people when they thought no one was paying attention.”
Evers went on to praise Crowley, saying he’s “created thousands of new jobs, cut the county's local carbon emissions in half, and passed a balanced budget, all while delivering the largest property tax cut in the county's history.”
Before he dropped out of the primary, Crowley had been mired in the single digits in limited public polling. Much of the attention and enthusiasm has instead centered on state Rep. Francesca Hong, a member of the Democratic Socialists of America who has offered a very different pitch by positioning herself as the most progressive candidate.
Republicans have also taken notice of Hong’s surge. Last week, the Republican Governors Association began spending more than $2 million to meddle in the primary to boost Hong on the theory she’d be the easiest opponent for Rep. Tom Tiffany, the likely GOP nominee.
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The Democratic field also features former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes, who came tantalizingly close to defeating Republican Sen. Ron Johnson in 2022. Barnes, though, still faces skeptics within his own party who wonder if he can seal the deal this time—a group that evidently includes Evers, whom he served under for four years.
Two other Democrats round out the field: Joel Brennan, another former Evers Cabinet official, and state Sen. Kelda Roys, who lost the 2018 primary to Evers by a wide margin. Both have received considerably less attention than the rest of the field, but they’re hoping that the upheaval will give them the chance to win over voters who are looking for new options.
Senate
ME-Sen
Former Maine Senate President Troy Jackson all but locked up the Democratic nomination for U.S. Senate on Sunday as his supporters won an overwhelming majority of the county-level elections to serve as delegates to the party’s statewide convention on Saturday.
Jackson’s two most prominent rivals, Secretary of State Shenna Bellows and former state health director Nirav Shah, both ended their campaigns after winning just a handful of delegates apiece. Shah endorsed Jackson in a statement upon leaving the race, while Bellows did not mention him. Brewery owner Dan Kleban and former congressional aide Jordan Wood also dropped out and backed Jackson.
All 16 Maine counties held meetings over the weekend—some virtual and some in-person—to choose 500 of the 601 delegates who will gather in Bangor to officially choose a replacement candidate to take on Republican Sen. Susan Collins in November. (The remaining 101 are members of the party’s governing body, known as the Democratic State Committee.)
Jackson ran the table at those meetings and, according to multiple media tallies, emerged with a majority even before the final counties cast votes. He ended the weekend with more than 450 in his corner while his opponents mustered only single-digit support. Though delegates are not legally bound to support Jackson at the convention, there’s little reason to think they won’t.
NE-Sen
Cindy Burbank, the Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate in Nebraska, said Friday that she had filed paperwork with election officials to remove herself from the general election ballot.
Burbank had pledged before the primary that she would drop out once independent Dan Osborn qualified for the ballot, a task he fulfilled one day before the Democrat’s departure.
But Burbank could have some difficulty withdrawing from the race. In May, shortly before Nebraska’s primaries, Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen suggested that he might not accept such paperwork from Burbank.
“If she submits a withdrawal, then I’m going to ask, ‘Well, what is my obligation with respect to this now? Do I have to accept it?’” Evnen said at a public event. “So I’ve submitted this question to the Attorney General to see what happens.”
The remarks were first reported by the Plains-Sentinel, a publication run by conservative operative John Gage.
According to the Nebraska Examiner, Evnen plans to send a letter to Attorney General Mike Hilgers, a fellow Republican, on Monday.
It’s a complete about-face for Evnen, though, who sought to keep Burbank off the ballot in March, arguing she was not a “good-faith candidate” because she’d declared her intention to quit the race in favor of Osborn. However, the Nebraska Supreme Court unanimously ordered that she be reinstated, finding that Evnen had sought to disqualify her after the appropriate deadline.
SC-Sen
Donald Trump on Friday urged appointed Sen. Darline Graham to run for a full term this fall in a post on Truth Social and pledged his “Complete and Total Endorsement” if she does, but Rep. Ralph Norman nonetheless launched his own bid a day later.
Trump’s call came just four days after South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster appointed Graham, the sister of the late Sen. Lindsey Graham, to serve what just about everyone assumed would be a short-term stint in the upper chamber. (The new senator has sometimes been referred to by her married name, Graham Nordone, but her official web page calls her just “Darline Graham.”)
Graham has not yet said if she’ll heed Trump’s request, but according to Semafor, she’s considering the idea. The development seems to have surprised even McMaster, who “never contemplated that [Graham] would run for the seat herself” when he selected her, the Associated Press reported.
Norman, a member of the far-right House Freedom Caucus, badly lost his bid to succeed McMaster last month, taking third in the GOP primary with just 17% of the vote. Yet he’s not the only gubernatorial also-ran who might take a shot at the Senate: Rep. Nancy Mace, who finished fifth, is also considering a bid, according to unnamed sources who spoke with Axios.
Another member of the state’s congressional delegation who did not run for governor, Rep. Russell Fry, is also undeterred, saying in a Saturday post on X, “My family and I have a big decision to make soon.”
Republicans have until July 28 to file to run in the special Senate primary that will be held on Aug. 11. Candidates need to win a majority to avoid a runoff on Aug. 25.
Governors
MI-Gov
Former Attorney General Mike Cox announced Friday that he was dropping out of the Republican primary for Michigan’s open governorship after concluding he could not defeat Rep. John James now that the congressman has Donald Trump’s endorsement.
James, who secured Trump’s backing last month, still faces wealthy businessman Perry Johnson on Aug. 4. Cox, though, did not mention Johnson in a social media post pledging his support to James in the general election.
In November, the GOP nominee will likely face Secretary of State Jocelyn Benson, who has posted massive polling leads over Genesee County Sheriff Chris Swanson ahead of the Democratic primary. The winner will succeed Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer, who cannot seek a third term.
House
AK-AL
Pastor Matt Schultz, the most prominent Democrat running against Republican Rep. Nick Begich, announced on Friday that he was dropping his bid and instead endorsed commercial fisherman Bill Hill, who is campaigning as an independent.
“I am disappointed by Republican outside groups meddling in this race and by the lack of meaningful support from Democratic institutions,” Schultz said in a statement. “But defeating Nick Begich and restoring a Democratic House majority must come before any one candidate.”
Just days earlier, CNN reporter Patrick Svitek flagged that the NRCC had at some point begun encouraging allies to help boost Schultz over Hill, presumably believing Hill to be the tougher opponent for Begich. It does not appear, however, that any actual spending ensued.
Hill has earned endorsements from a large number of labor unions, as well as several organizations that often aid Democrats, such as the campaign finance reform group End Citizens United. Schultz had received the backing of many prominent Democratic politicians, including former Gov. Tony Knowles, but never won the same kind of institutional support.
Hill also enjoyed an edge in fundraising, taking in almost $1.2 million through the end of June versus a little over $860,000 for Schultz. Hill has also benefited from more than $730,0000 in spending by a super PAC called Wheel Dog PAC. Begich, meanwhile, has brought in $5.3 million for his campaign to win a second term after unseating Democratic Rep. Mary Peltola 51-49 two years ago.
Schultz’s name will remain on the Aug. 18 primary ballot, in which all candidates from all parties will run together. The top four will advance to the November general election, which will be decided via ranked-choice voting if no one wins a majority. While a large number of candidates are running, none have reported raising any money apart from Begich and Hill.
TN-06
Former Rep. Van Hilleary has debuted a commercial consisting entirely of AI-generated videos portraying state Rep. Johnny Garrett, his main opponent in the Aug. 6 Republican primary for Tennessee’s open and safely red 6th District.
“Crushing the woke left? Not Johnny Garrett!” intones the narrator as the audience sees the candidate being depicted throwing a MAGA cap into the crowd at a gay pride parade.
The AI version of Garrett is later shown smiling alongside Speaker Emerita Nancy Pelosi, standing in front of a whiteboard with the text “Systematic racism is real” and snoring at his desk.
Inside Elections’ Jacob Rubashkin, who flagged the ad on social media, notes that a state law that took effect this month requires that such ads featuring deepfake versions of candidates doing or saying things they didn’t actually do include a written disclaimer throughout the commercial. Van Hilleary’s spot, though, has no such warning anywhere.
The real Garrett might be especially surprised to be portrayed as an ardent supporter of LGBTQ rights. The state representative has aired transphobic ads depicting a male adult actor in drag outplaying a girls’ basketball team.
Hilleary and Garrett are competing in next month’s Republican primary for the constituency in Middle Tennessee that Rep. John Rose is giving up to run for governor. Rose has not taken sides in the contest to replace him even though Hilleary served as his chief of staff for most of his four terms in Congress.
Hilleary, though, is hoping to return to the House after a nearly quarter-century absence. Hilleary, who was first elected to Congress in 1994, left office shortly after losing a tight race for governor to Democrat Phil Bredesen in 2002.
Poll Pile
GA-Gov: State Navigate:
Keisha Lance Bottoms (D): 51, Rick Jackson (R): 44.
FL-04 (D): The Tyson Group:
L.J. Holloway: 41, Michael Kirwan: 11, Brit Robinson: 4, undecided: 43.
MI-13 (D): Data for Progress for the Justice Democrats (pro-Donavan McKinney):
Shri Thanedar (inc): 46, McKinney: 42.
GA-LG: State Navigate:
Josh McLaurin (D): 48, Greg Dolezal (R): 44.
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