I’ve sat across the table from candidates three weeks out who had no idea how good their numbers actually were. Today’s are that good. Republicans know it too—which is why you’re not hearing many victory laps out of them right now.
Before we jump in, tap the heart and restack this one. Every share puts the truth in front of someone before a pundit lies about it.
And if you’ve been reading us for free, my House analysis and the complete Emerson breakdown are for paid subscribers only, starting right below. Come see the numbers that should be keeping the other side up at three in the morning:
The read I would give a candidate at a kitchen table, not a cable panel.
Emerson recently polled on a key question—Democrats or Republicans for Congress? It came back 53 to 42 in favor of the Democrats.
After 23 years and hundreds of campaigns, my advice to Democrats running is simple: sprint through the finish, run like you’re behind, and campaign like the momentum is already yours. Because it is.
The same pollster tracked Democrats up by 10 in April and June—now it’s up to 11. When a lead holds for that long, it stops being a mood and becomes the baseline.
Democratic women are outrunning even that topline number. Their lead is 27 points, more than double the overall margin.
Men are still a coin flip. And you know as well as I do how that chamber flips, one suburban district at a time, on who shows up—and out in those suburbs the ones showing up are women. So the single biggest figure in this whole poll is parked right on top of the exact seats Democrats have got to win.
Then comes the one that ought to have Republicans up pacing late at night. Ask people what threat worries them most, and for the first time this whole term, democracy itself tops the list—ahead of the economy.
That worry jumped ten points in a single month. And the economy, something the GOP has always touted, fell eleven. November is coming.
Let’s say your mail-in ballot just never shows up this fall. The county swears they sent it. But the real story is it’s sitting in a postal facility because you aren’t on the “official” list the White House gave the Post Office.
That’s exactly what Trump’s ridiculous executive order does. States give USPS a roster of the mail voters they’ve approved, and the Post Office simply won’t deliver to the rest of you.
The League of Women Voters sued over it, and last week Judge Indira Talwani refused to throw the case out. She said Trump’s order was unconstitutional, and warned that voters getting shut out this election is “plausibly likely and imminent.”
The regime assumed a pause from a federal appeals court gave them an opening. So the League went back into Talwani’s court. The Judge gave the White House a line from an eighth-grade quiz: “The President plays no role” in elections.
She rules on burying it for good on August 7. One thing is certain—I wouldn’t want to be the lawyer stuck defending it.
The regime has sworn up and down that they canceled billions in energy grants to fight waste. Energy Secretary Chris Wright even told Congress in June, “No decisions were made on politics.” Guess what? That was a lie.
In court filings this month, the regime admitted it killed $7.6 billion in grants “based solely on the political identity” of a state. Meaning if it voted for Kamala Harris they were cut. Money to fix the power grid, plug methane leaks, and build clean fuel—all gutted to punish Americans just for how they voted.
Trump’s budget director and architect of Project 2025 Russell Vought was the one who ordered it, bragging online that “the Left’s climate agenda is being canceled.” Sen. Patty Murray and Rep. Marcy Kaptur called it what it is: “outright un-American.”
Federal judge Amit Mehta already ruled the scheme is illegal, a clear violation of equal protection under the Constitution. They punished us for how we voted. A judge already started ordering the money back, and the states they took it from are coming for the rest.
A president doesn’t get to dream up a tax, only Congress can do that. Last I checked, we fought a whole war to make that point stick. But that didn’t stop Trump from signing a proclamation last fall that hit employers with $100,000 fees every time they went to hire a foreign-born doctor, nurse, or lab tech.
Twenty Democratic attorneys general sued over it. Judge Leo Sorokin threw the fee out in June. The regime appealed, just like they do with everything. On Friday, the First Circuit slammed the door in their face, reminding them that the power to tax was never theirs to begin with.
And here’s who they were really fighting. In Hettinger, North Dakota—a town of a thousand people—lab manager Bekki Holzkamm has been trying to fill one job since last summer. More than thirty people applied. Not one was a US citizen. That hundred-thousand-dollar fee is what her hospital pays two technicians in a year.
They said this protects American workers. Instead it kept a small-town hospital from filling one job, and two courts threw it out.
On Friday night Trump showed up at the redo for the Correspondents’ Dinner and completely bombed. It was an hour of stale insults to a mostly stone-silent room. But what was even worse was what he did between the “jokes.”
He praised Larry and David Ellison, the billionaires who took over Paramount and now want CNN’s parent company too. He thanked David Ellison for the “changes” at CBS News, toasting the men buying newsrooms and bending them his way.
In that audience sat The Wall Street Journal journalists he’s suing for $10 billion over their Epstein reporting. They won the night’s top award for courage. One of them had her home address exposed by a Trump lawsuit, and her family had to move. She kept investigating anyway.
The owners cut deals with power, while reporters doing the real work pay the price. Guess which side we stand on.
That’s exactly why independent media has never been more important in this country. We don’t have any corporate overlords that can cancel our story or soften how we cover it. No one can buy us off.
On top of the reporting and our investigations, we power the resistance. Our pressure campaigns on Congress over dozens of issues have hit their desks nearly 800,000 times, along with flooding their offices with countless calls. All while running an unmatched social media operation that gets the truth to millions who would never get it otherwise.
If you’re reading for free, let me be clear. We are 99 days away from the midterm elections, and we can’t do this without support from our community. Join us as a paid subscriber today and help us keep leading the fight through November and beyond:
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Onward!
Scott
The regime wants us too exhausted to resist. Which of these wins gave you the energy to fight back today?
For sure
GOOD POINT!
They continue to TARGET BLUE STATES with their PROPAGANDA slashing funds - insist the FRAUD only exists in BLUE STATES and so on.
The U.S. is an ENERGY GUZZLER compared to most other nations PER CAPITA.
CHEAP CLEAN ENERGY is the solution and would have allowed us to survive Rump's IRAN WAR LUNACY...but DIRTY ENERGY pays Rump well.....in this day and age, how STUPID do you have to be to promote DIRTY COAL?
Keep an eye out for CHEAP CLEAN ENERGY SOLUTIONS - BALCONY SOLAR is being offered where states have approved the regulations - check out the prices - fairly nominal. You could buy one and with the ENERGY SAVINGS, buy another.