… Trump made 13 posts in an hour today on Truth Social claiming total victory in the Iran War with the concepts of a peace agreement allegedly imminent. However, as with all things Trump, the reality and details never seem to match up with his claims. It appears that may be the case yet again.
… These were some of Trump’s claims from his blizzard of manic posts:
“Iran has agreed to never close the Strait of Hormuz again. It will no longer be used as a weapon against the World!
“A GREAT AND BRILLIANT DAY FOR THE WORLD! DJT”
“Now that the Hormuz Strait situation is over, I received a call from NATO asking if we would need some help. I TOLD THEM TO STAY AWAY, UNLESS THEY JUST WANT TO LOAD UP THEIR SHIPS WITH OIL. They were useless when needed, a Paper Tiger!
“Again! This deal is not tied, in any way, to Lebanon, but we will, MAKE LEBANON GREAT AGAIN!”
“Iran, with the help of the U.S.A., has removed, or is removing, all sea mines! Thank you!”
“Thank you to Saudi Arabia, UAE, and Qatar for your great bravery and help!”
“The U.S.A. will get all Nuclear “Dust,” created by our great B2 Bombers - No money will exchange hands in any way, shape, or form. This deal is in no way subject to Lebanon, either, but the USA will, separately, work with Lebanon, and deal with the Hezboolah situation in an appropriate manner. Israel will not be bombing Lebanon any longer. They are PROHIBITED from doing so by the U.S.A. Enough is enough!!!”
“The Failing New York Times, FAKE NEWS CNN, and others, just don’t know what to do. They are desperately looking for a reason to criticize President Donald J. Trump on the Iran situation, but just can’t find it. Why don’t they just say, at the right time, JOB WELL DONE, MR. PRESIDENT, and start to gain back their credibility???”
… Reuters: “Significant differences between Iran and the US remain to reach a deal aimed at ending the war, a senior Iranian official told Reuters, adding that keeping the Strait of Hormuz open is ‘conditional on US adherence to the terms of ceasefire’.
The official said ‘no agreement has been reached on the details of the nuclear issues,’ and serious negotiations are required to overcome differences.”
… Middle East analyst Shaiel Ben-Ephraim: “The deal shaping up to end the war in Iran has the following components:
Iran officially declared the waterway "completely open" today for all commercial vessels for the remainder of the ceasefire. Iran plans to levy a toll there. The US opposes that. Unless they can get a cut of course.
The US is reportedly weighing the release of $20 billion in Iranian assets held in foreign accounts to be used for humanitarian purposes. This is a significant increase from the initial $6 billion offer, following Iran’s demand for $27 billion.
Trump stated that Iran has agreed to hand over its entire stockpile of nearly 2,000 kilograms of enriched uranium, which he refers to as "nuclear dust". Trump is referring to Iran's estimated 2,000 kilos of enriched uranium. Of this, 440–450 kilos is highly enriched to 60% purity, a short technical step from weapons-grade.
Both sides are debating a "voluntary" pause on uranium enrichment. The US is pushing for a 20-year moratorium, while Iran has offered only 5 years.
The US demands all material be shipped to the US. Iran has only agreed to "down-blend" it domestically. A compromise involves shipping some to a third country, likely Russia, and down-blending the rest under international monitoring.
The draft memorandum requires all future nuclear operations to be moved above ground, leaving current underground facilities like Fordow and Natanz out of commission.
Iran demanded a ceasefire in Lebanon and that was forced on Israel for ten days. However, Israel will not withdraw and continues to harbor plans to dismantle Lebanon.
… “This grand bargain serves Iranian and US interests in de-escalation. Overall it serves Iranian interests more, as it gives them money they did not have access to before and does not involve conditions regarding their ballistic missiles and leaves the current regime intact. The main threat to this deal, needless to say, is Israel. It has no interest in maintaining a ceasefire in Lebanon and a very strong interest in destroying this fragile deal.”
… Axios: A US official clarifies Trump's Lebanon comments: “The President’s ceasefire agreement between Lebanon and Israel clearly states that Israel will not carry out any offensive military operations against Lebanese targets but preserves its right to self-defense against planned, imminent, or ongoing attacks."
… “Trump shocked Netanyahu with post declaring Lebanon strikes ‘prohibited’. Israel asked the WH for clarifications, sources say.”
… Former CIA officer Marc Polymeropoulos: “Trump humiliates his best buds. This is political suicide for any Israeli PM, to adhere to this. I don’t care who it is. The idea of not being able to take action on your borders is untenable. Bibi of course deserves this humiliation, as he has been on his knees to Trump for perpetuity.”
… News18 (India): “Iran has pushed back against Trump’s claim that Tehran has agreed to hand over its stockpile of enriched uranium, with sources saying no such arrangement has been negotiated so far. A source close to Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf said ‘no form of nuclear material transfer to America has been negotiated,’ directly contradicting Trump’s assertion.”
… Tasnim states that Iran has reportedly set 3 conditions for vessels transiting the Strait of Hormuz:
Only commercial ships allowed, no military vessels; cargo must not be linked to “hostile” states.
Transit must follow routes designated by Iran.
Passage requires coordination with the IRGC Navy.
… Middle East analyst and former Israeli intelligence officer Danny Citrinowicz: “I’m concerned that, in this round, Iran came out with the upper hand. It demonstrated not only its ability to threaten the Strait of Hormuz, which it effectively controls, but also its willingness to keep it closed until conditions aligned with its interests, while refusing to yield to US demands.”
… “The takeaway from this episode is clear: Iran not only holds leverage over the strait, but any future arrangement with Tehran will have to be credibly enforced. Otherwise, the ‘Hormuz card’ can and likely will be played again. Iran is not entering the next round from a position of weakness.
… “From Tehran’s perspective, it may have made tactical concessions, since it is clear that even any closure of the strait in the coming weeks, given the volume of tanker traffic, would inflict significant pain on global markets. But strategically it reinforced its core message: it sets the terms in this arena and will not accept dictates from outside powers. And if Israel were to violate the ceasefire, the strait would likely be closed again.”
… “This development should serve as a reminder to the admin that this is not a simple winner-takes-all outcome. From Iran’s perspective, this is a negotiation, one it enters from a position of strength. It’s really become the ‘Strait of Iran’. Iran holds the key to the strait, and that reality does not appear likely to change anytime soon. Developments over the past 24 hours have only reinforced and deepened this reality.”
… Seyed Mohammad Marandi, Prof at Tehran Univ: “One of the major developments that Iran is currently orchestrating is shifting the passage of ships from other routes in the Strait of Hormuz to Iran’s coastal waters. This means that in the new order of the Strait of Hormuz, a significant long-term geopolitical change will take place.”
… Journalist Borzou Daragahi: “This is one reason why previous US admins ruled out an attack on Iran. No one, including the Iranians, knew what would happen and what it would mean if Iran closed the Strait of Hormuz. Then Trump FAFOed. Now we are in a situation where everyone in the world knows that Iran can close the Strait with a Tweet or a drone and that it would have a tremendous impact on the world economy. No matter what happens Iran will always hold that leverage.”
… lan Goldenberg, chief policy officer for J Street: “A reasonable deal is better than a return to war and I’ll support it. But let’s remember that this is a colossal failure for Trump and for US interests:
We could have had this deal or something similar before the war without: the death and destruction across the Middle East; massive damage to US allies and partners and global relationships; huge use of military resources that will take years to rebuild; and significant damage to the global economy.
If Trump hadn’t left the JCPOA we’d probably be in the midst of negotiations on extensions of key components and follow on deals at this point but from a much stronger position. Iran wouldn’t have 400KG of HEU and we’d have the most comprehensive inspections regime ever developed to catch any cheating.
Instead this will probably involve nothing even close on what is arguably the single most important element of any nuclear deal - inspections and verification.”
… James Acton, director of the Carnegie Nuclear Program: “The two biggest criticisms of the JCPOA were sunsets and financial relief that Iran could spend on terrorism. The deal under discussion has both. That’s not a necessary criticism of diplomacy; it’s a criticism of those who criticized the JCPOA and will support any Trump deal. Sunset clauses and financial relief are necessary for any deal.”
… Yaroslav Trofimov, chief foreign affairs correspondent for WSJ: “To sum up the day. The Strait of Hormuz is still not open unless vessels go through the Iranian tollbooth, the US naval blockade of Iran continues, and the dramatic decline in oil prices is caused not by the changing reality on the ground but by market expectations - possibly over-optimistic - that the US and Iran will strike a nuclear deal in the foreseeable future.”
… Right-wing talk show host Ann Coulter: “Yay. The Strait that was open before we began bombing Iran open, is open again. Everybody pretend this is a huge victory for Trump so he’ll end this catastrophe.”
… Axios: “The US and Iran are negotiating over a plan to end the war, with one element under discussion being that the US would release $20 billion in frozen Iranian funds in return for Iran giving up its stockpile of enriched uranium. According to two sources, the US was ready in an earlier stage of the negotiations to release $6 billion for Iran to purchase food, medicine and other humanitarian supplies. The Iranians demanded $27 billion.”
… “The latest number discussed by the US and Iran is $20 billion. This was a US proposal. Meanwhile, the US asked Iran to agree to ship all its nuclear material to the US, while the Iranians only agreed to ‘down-blend’ it inside Iran. Under a compromise proposal now under discussion, some of the highly enriched uranium would be shipped to a third country.”
… Rep. Martin Stutzman (R-IN) on CNN: “Trump is a tough negotiator. We’ve been able to watch him negotiate on Truth Social, and there are days where you’re like, ‘wow’. Host: He threatened to take out an entire civilization. Stutzman: Those were the types of words they understood.”
… Fox host Sean Hannity said Pope Leo doesn’t understand Catholicism: “I went to Catholic school for 12 years, I attended a seminary in high school and studied theology. I left the Catholic church in large part because of institutionalized corruption. Others at the Vatican have totally lost sight of the true meaning of the Bible and its teachings.”
… Hannity: “Pope Leo is seemingly more interested in spreading left-wing politics than the actual teachings of Jesus Christ. Why is the pope twisting religion to only attack Trump? Is it because he is Trump-hating Democrat that lacks moral clarity?”
… WH Faith Office Senior Advisor Paula White‑Cain said nobody knows more about the Bible than Trump: “He can quote to you so many sermons. I mean, profound.”
… Like Two Corinthians.
This was a long crazy week. Monday seems like a month ago. I was hoping we could end the week on a slow news day, but then Trump decided to declare victory on Truth Social.
Reminder there is no Bulletin tomorrow because I’m off Saturdays. We are going to the Maine Culinary Festival where local farms and artisans come to sell the stuff they produce, make and bake. Last year was amazing and this one is supposed to be even better. This isn’t one with restaurants and chefs - it is family owned small farms or solo people who make and/or grow things in Maine.
I will be out with the next Bulletin recapping the entire weekend on Sunday night. If you missed yesterday’s Bulletin, it is here.
… RFK Jr testified in another congressional hearing today. This time the House:
Rep. Suzanne Bonamici (D-OR): “How does it enhance the health and well-being of children to spend HHS’ limited resources and taxpayer money on a video of yourself drinking milk in a hot tub with Kid Rock? RFK Jr: So many people have come up to me who saw the video and said that inspired me.”
Rep. Greg Casar (D-TX): “Have you met with any of the 1.4 million people who have lost their health insurance just this last year from dropping off of Obamacare? RFK Jr: No. They’re almost all illegal immigrants.”
Rep. Adelita Grijalva (D-AZ): “I would like to ask about proposed cuts to medical research. I was reading an article this morning about your affinity for performing your own medical research. You cut the penis off a dead raccoon to study.”
Rep. Summer Lee (D-PA): “Your agency told programs to remove 200 words from their funding applications including the word ‘Black.’ Do you have an idea how we ...
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