Tuesday, September 22, 2026

CC Newsletter 21 Sept- Wars, Power, Resistance and the Search for Alternatives

                                                                                                                                                      

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  • Dear Friend,

    Today’s issue brings together voices and perspectives from different parts of the world, covering war, political repression, democracy, imperialism, social rights, ecology, development, history, philosophy and the struggles of ordinary people. Though diverse in subject and geography, these contributions share a concern with the structures of power that shape our lives—and with the possibilities of resistance, solidarity and alternative ways of organising society.

    From Gaza and Pakistan to Balochistan, Germany, Africa and India, the issue examines different forms of violence, exclusion and political control. Other contributions look beyond immediate political events to questions of food sovereignty, public education, economic development, religious pluralism and the intellectual traditions that have shaped struggles for emancipation. Together, they remind us that the conflicts of our time cannot always be understood in isolation from the histories and structures that produced them.

    We are also beginning, from today, the weekly serialisation of Palestinian writer Dr Salim Nazzal’s novel "The Latest News of Abu Yusuf al-Tahhan". Set in the imaginary Galilean village of Ayn al-Diya, the novel moves through history, folklore, memory and imagination. Its stories of war, displacement, love, loss and survival bring another dimension to our engagement with Palestine—the preservation of memory and the power of storytelling.

    Alongside the analysis and political writing, the novel and the poetry in this issue remind us that resistance is also expressed through memory, culture, imagination and the search for a common human future.

    This is the space Countercurrents seeks to create: a place where contemporary struggles can be understood through history and ideas, where critical voices can meet, and where the search for a more just world remains open.

    FUNDRAISING APPEAL

    The work we publish each day—connecting wars, ecological crises, democratic struggles and social movements to their deeper causes, amplifying critical voices, and sustaining spaces for independent thought—depends entirely on reader support. If you find value in this kind of journalism, we invite you to help sustain it. Your contribution enables us to continue documenting, analysing, and resisting the forces that shape our world.

    Support us:https://countercurrents.org/subscription/.



    If you find value in the work we publish, please forward this newsletter to friends and colleagues and help strengthen independent, reader-supported journalism. Your support and sharing help us continue providing a space for critical voices and thoughtful analysis. You can subscribe to our newsletter here http://www.countercurrents.org/news-letter/.

    In Solidarity

    Binu Mathew
    Editor
    Countercurrents.org



    PALESTINE

    Israeli Forces’ Random Gunfire Kills Child, Woman, Young Man in Gaza
    by Quds News Network


    Three Palestinians—a child, a woman and a young man—were killed by Israeli gunfire in Gaza on Monday, according to local and medical sources. Fidaa Khader Totah, 31, was shot in the head on Salah Al-Din Road in central Gaza. Child Ismail Al-Bardawil was shot in the chest in southern Gaza, while Mohsen Bahja died from injuries sustained in an Israeli drone attack in northern Gaza. Several others were reportedly injured by Israeli naval gunfire targeting tents sheltering displaced people in Shati. The killings occurred amid continued Israeli attacks despite the ceasefire, with more than 1,360 Palestinians reportedly killed since it began.



    CLIMATE CHANGE

    Ongoing Wars, Nuclear Threats and the Deepening Climate Crisis
    by Dr Arun Mitra


    The climate crisis, ongoing wars and the threat of nuclear conflict are deeply interconnected, argues Dr Arun Mitra. Military activities, arms production, warfare and post-war reconstruction generate significant greenhouse-gas emissions, yet comprehensive accounting remains inadequate. The environmental footprint of nuclear weapons programmes adds another dimension, while escalation between nuclear-armed states carries potentially catastrophic consequences for food systems, health, ecosystems and the global climate. The article examines the need for transparent measurement of military emissions, reduced dependence on fossil fuels, diplomatic efforts to end wars, prevention of nuclear weapons use, and the redirection of resources towards human development and planetary protection.


    WAR


    Politics of Wickedness is Destroying Humanity
    by Dr Mahboob A Khawaja


    Mahboob A. Khawaja examines what he calls the politics of wickedness and its consequences for humanity, governance and peace. Drawing on the conflicts in Ukraine, Russia, Gaza and Palestine, he argues that political power exercised without accountability contributes to war, displacement, violence and the erosion of moral and humanitarian norms. The article reflects on international law, the responsibilities of governments, and the relationship between power and accountability. It also draws on Biblical and Quranic passages concerning human conduct, morality and divine responsibility, and concludes with Howard Zinn’s reflection on compassion, courage, kindness and hope in difficult times.



    COUNTER SOLUTIONS

    Global Solidarity
    by Peter Bohmer


    In “Global Solidarity,” Peter Bohmer reflects on decades of solidarity activism, from the Vietnam War and anti-apartheid struggles to Nicaragua, El Salvador, Palestine and Iran. He argues that solidarity should be active, rooted in self-determination, and directed toward movements seeking justice and liberation. The article distinguishes solidarity from anti-interventionism and develops the idea of “critical solidarity”: supporting oppressed people and liberation struggles while remaining attentive to patriarchal, sectarian or undemocratic politics. Drawing on historical experiences, Bohmer examines direct action, economic intervention, political repression and the responsibilities of people in the Global North toward struggles against domination.



    Why Plan Prepared by Top Rice Scientist Dr. Richharia Has Increased Relevance Now
    by Bharat Dogra


    A rice development plan prepared by scientist Dr. R.H. Richharia at the request of the Prime Minister’s Office in 1983–84 was later neglected. The plan placed indigenous rice diversity, farmer participation and decentralized research and extension at its centre. It proposed maintaining local rice varieties in their natural habitats, improving indigenous varieties through genetic upgrading and using clonal propagation to spread improved material. Bharat Dogra examines why Richharia’s approach has gained renewed relevance amid climate change, the need to reduce chemical inputs, threats to indigenous seed diversity and growing corporate control over food and farming systems. The article also discusses its relevance to drought and flood resilience.



    CHINA


    Walking on Two Legs: The Socialism of Chinese Modernisation: Part 2
    by Tricontinental: Institute for Social Research


    “Walking on Two Legs” examines China’s reform era from 1978 to 2013 and the subsequent focus on common prosperity, ecological civilisation, and high-quality development. The article traces how market mechanisms were incorporated within a state-led socialist framework while public ownership remained central in strategic sectors. It discusses poverty reduction, industrialisation, technological development, growing inequalities, environmental pressures, and efforts to address these contradictions. The article also examines rural revitalisation, technological self-reliance, South-South cooperation, and China’s 2035 and 2049 development goals. It presents Chinese modernisation as a continuing historical process linking productive development with social objectives and collective welfare.




    GERMANY


    Destroying Democracy – 3 AfD Strategies
    by Thomas Klikauer


    In “Destroying Democracy – 3 AfD Strategies,” Thomas Klikauer examines three forms of parliamentary obstruction attributed to the AfD: symbolic blocking, systematic blocking, and legalized blocking. The article describes tactics including delaying votes, demanding repeated roll-call votes, disrupting parliamentary proceedings, exploiting blocking minorities, and using parliamentary inquiries to place heavy demands on ministries and administrations. It also examines how such actions can create delays, administrative burdens and public perceptions of institutional dysfunction. Drawing on examples from Germany’s federal and state parliaments, the article argues that these three strategies work together to obstruct parliamentary processes and weaken the functioning of democratic institutions.




    AFRICA

    Know the Enemy: Nkrumah, Imperialism and the Unfinished Question of African Liberation
    by Wachira Nyaga


    Wachira Nyaga examines Kwame Nkrumah’s analysis of imperialism and African liberation through his 1968 work 'Handbook of Revolutionary Warfare'. The article explores Nkrumah’s concept of neo-colonialism, arguing that formal political independence does not necessarily end economic and political dependence. It discusses “collective imperialism,” political fragmentation, propaganda, class interests and the relationship between external power and internal social forces. The article also considers Nkrumah’s emphasis on Pan-Africanism, economic sovereignty and popular participation. While acknowledging the historical context of his analysis, it asks how his concepts can help examine contemporary structures of power and Africa’s unfinished liberation project.




    PAKISTAN


    Imran Khan, The Family, and The Paranoia of a Gangster State
    by Junaid S Ahmad


    Junaid S Ahmad examines the widening repression surrounding Imran Khan in Pakistan, where his imprisonment has been followed by the detention of supporters, organizers, lawmakers and members of his family. The article argues that preventive detention, mass arrests, administrative restrictions and the targeting of political associates reflect an increasingly coercive form of governance. It examines how political opposition is framed as a security problem and how state institutions are used to contain dissent. Against a backdrop of militant violence, economic weakness, unemployment and institutional decay, the article contends that the state’s capacity for suppression contrasts sharply with its difficulties in governing.



    BALOCHISTAN


    When the State Turns Women into Weapons: Balochistan’s disappeared women, televised confessions, and the dangerous machinery of a state narrative
    by Baloch Siddik Azad


    An article examines the cases of Khadija Pir Jan and Safia Abdul Khaliq, two young Baloch women who reportedly disappeared before appearing at a press conference in Quetta and speaking about alleged links to banned Baloch organisations. It focuses on the unexplained period between their disappearance and televised statements, raising concerns about detention, due process, access to lawyers and family members, and whether their statements were made freely. The article argues that allegations of militancy should be tested through independent courts rather than media appearances. It calls for disclosure of detention records, independent investigation, legal scrutiny and accountability for unlawful detention or coercion.



    BANGLADESH

    A Nation’s Amnesia: Jinnah and Bangladesh
    by Habib Siddiqui


    Habib Siddiqui examines Bangladesh’s changing relationship with Muhammad Ali Jinnah and the history surrounding the country’s emergence in 1971. The article traces the political role of Bengali Muslims in the Pakistan movement, discusses Jinnah’s 1948 speeches in Dhaka, and considers his position on Bengali and Urdu. It also examines the contrasting treatment of Jinnah and figures such as Surya Sen in contemporary Bangladesh. Siddiqui argues that the post-1971 national narrative has placed greater emphasis on 1971 while overlooking aspects of the political and social history preceding it. The article calls for a fuller account of Bangladesh’s complex historical origins.



    INDIAN DEMOCRACY


    ALIFA rejects Uniform Control Code in the garb of ‘Uniform Civil Code’ in 21 states across India
    by All India Feminist Alliance


    The All-India Feminist Alliance (ALIFA) rejects the Uniform Civil Codes enacted or proposed by BJP governments, arguing that they conflate equality with uniformity while expanding state surveillance and regulation of intimate relationships. ALIFA highlights concerns over mandatory registration of live-in relationships, criminal penalties, privacy, succession, marital property, and the exclusion of Adivasi, queer and transgender communities. It also argues that the Codes fail to address structural inequalities including unpaid care work, marital property, marital rape, guardianship and economic security after separation. ALIFA calls for repeal or withdrawal of existing Bills and demands broad, meaningful consultations with affected communities before family-law reforms are pursued.



    Government school closures hit poor students hardest
    by G Ramakrishnan


    Across India, government school closures and mergers are reshaping access to education, with the greatest burden falling on poor and rural families. Madhya Pradesh alone has 7.37 lakh children with no school records, while thousands of government schools have recorded few or no new admissions. Nationally, government schools declined by roughly 89,000 between 2014-15 and 2023-24, while private schools increased. The article examines how this process affects Scheduled Caste, Scheduled Tribe and poorer backward-class communities, as well as girls who may face longer journeys to school. It also examines the limits of the Right to Education Act and the role of public action.



    Denial of permission for ‘Nayi Peedhi Samvad’ was discriminatory and biased
    Press Release


    The Employment–Social Rights Campaign held a meeting at Samta Bhawan in Varanasi following the Purvanchal Yatra across ten districts. Participants objected to the police administration’s denial of permission for the ‘Nayi Peedhi Samvad’ programme at Shastri Ghat, and called for an impartial inquiry into the decision. The meeting announced a campaign across Varanasi and the ten districts on employment, education, healthcare, social rights, transparency and accountable governance. A Chairpersons’ Council representing youth from the districts and an Advisory Council were constituted. The campaign will also seek to build grassroots organisational units across 61 Assembly constituencies in the region.



    COMMUNAL HARMONY


    Two Rivers, One Ocean: Maulana Azad’s Theology of Religious Unity and the Unfinished Work of an Inclusive India
    by V A Mohamad Ashrof


    Maulana Abul Kalam Azad developed a theology of religious unity grounded in a distinction between deen, the shared religious and ethical foundation of prophetic traditions, and shariah, the particular laws and practices shaped for different communities and historical circumstances. Through his reading of the Quran, especially Surah al-Fatiha, Azad argued for a universal God and a shared religious origin while retaining the distinctiveness of Islamic revelation. He carried this theology into his advocacy of composite nationalism and opposition to Partition. The article examines Azad’s intellectual journey, his engagement with Hindu and other traditions, his political thought, and the continuing relevance and tensions of his approach to religious pluralism.



    PHILOSOPHY


    Louis Althusser’s Assessment of Early Marx and the Epistemological Break
    by Pon Chandran


    Pon Chandran examines Louis Althusser’s interpretation of Karl Marx’s intellectual development through 'For Marx' and 'Reading Capital'. The article focuses on Althusser’s concept of an epistemological break around 1845, distinguishing Marx’s early philosophical writings from the theoretical framework of his mature work. It discusses the movement from Hegelian and Feuerbachian influences towards historical materialism, and explains Althusser’s theoretical anti-humanism and the idea of history as a process without a subject. The article also examines overdetermination, the relationship between economic, political and ideological structures, and Althusser’s method of symptomatic reading in analysing Marx’s theoretical development and political economy.



    NOVEL


    The latest news  of Abu Yusuf al-Tahhan – Chapter 1
    by Dr Salim Nazzal


    Countercurrents begins the weekly serialisation of "The Latest News of Abu Yusuf al-Tahhan", a novel by Palestinian writer Salim Nazzal. Set in the imaginary Galilean village of Ayn al-Diya, the story moves between history, folklore, memory and imagination. Its central figure, Abu Yusuf al-Tahhan, is a mysterious miller whose stories span generations and seemingly different eras. The opening chapter introduces tales of ancient wars, epidemics, floods, love, loss and the secrets of creation, preserved through oral storytelling. Dedicated to the people of Palestine and their enduring hope of return, the novel explores how memory and legend survive across centuries of displacement and change.



    POETRY


    A Way Out of the Nightmare
    by Dr César Chelala


    César Chelala’s poem 'A Way Out of the Nightmare' is a concise meditation on the interconnected forms of violence shaping our world. Beginning with William S. Burroughs’s stark vision of a “war universe,” the poem moves from familiar conflicts in Iran, Gaza, Ukraine and Yemen to the quieter wars experienced by migrants, displaced people and impoverished citizens. Its strength lies in widening the meaning of war beyond armed conflict, connecting historical domination with contemporary inequality and exclusion. The poem’s closing turn toward “common good” offers a simple but profound counterpoint to a world organised around power and division.






  • THIS & THAT!

                                                                                                                                                         

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    Massive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since Watergate

                                                                                                                                                        

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    Massive primary turnout points to biggest year for Democrats since Watergate

    There’s a remarkably close correlation between the primary vote and the House popular vote


    Throughout this year’s just-concluded primary season, there’s been one consistent storyline: Democratic primaries have seen much higher turnout than their Republican counterparts. But does this meaningfully indicate what we might expect in November?

    It turns out the answer is very much yes.

    In midterms over the past 80 years, there’s been a surprisingly tight relationship between voting behavior in a given cycle’s primaries and the House popular vote in the general election that follows. Based on that relationship, this year’s primary turnout suggests that Democrats would win the House vote by an enormous 13-point spread.

    That’s much larger than what the generic congressional ballot forecasts. That metric, according to a polling aggregate calculated by FiftyPlusOne, currently gives Democrats a smaller 7-point edge.

    Either would be more than enough for Democrats to take back the House, and neither outcome would be surprising. Both measures have great predictive power, but like any other forecasting tool, they both come with uncertainty attached to them.

    Below we’ll explain what precisely the primary results are telling us, and why they matter. The bottom line is that Democrats need to be prepared to capitalize on the potential for an electoral tsunami on Nov. 3.

    Uncovering the national primary

    Assessing a state’s total primary turnout in midterm years is not as straightforward as it might seem, however. That’s because every state hosts a mix of different races, and for many contests, it might not even hold a primary at all.

    As we gathered data, we had some choices to make. We decided to start with elections for governor, which are the most common type of statewide election in midterm years. If a state didn’t hold a gubernatorial primary in a given year, we then looked to see if there was a primary for U.S. Senate.

    Failing that, we moved on to any other statewide races, then the total for all U.S. House races, then the total for all state legislative races, and finally, the total for as many county-level races as possible. Sometimes, we had to mix and match, using, say, a Democratic primary for governor and a Republican primary for Senate. On rare occasions, we were unable to find any data at all, but any gaps are largely immaterial.

    With robust data at hand stretching back almost all the way to when the 17th Amendment began mandating the direct election of senators nationwide, we developed the graph at the top of this post. It shows the total number of Democratic and Republican votes across all state primaries from 1918 to 2026, in midterm years only. We’ve dubbed this the “national primary.”

    We can see a century of dramatic political history playing out in the graph above: a tripling of Democratic primary votes from 1930 to 1938 following the end of the Progressive Era and the birth of the New Deal; the mid-century domination of the Democratic Party, when it comprised an uneasy coalition of southern segregationists and northern moderates and liberals; the long, slow realignment from the Civil Rights Era to Barack Obama’s presidency; a surge in turnout for both parties since 2014 that well outpaces population growth; and the recent see-sawing lead, ending with the domination of the 2026 cycle by Democrats.

    Taking it one step further, we can calculate a percentage vote share for Democrats and Republicans in this synthetic national primary, then take the difference between the two. The chart below shows that difference for every midterm since 1918.

    As you can see, this year’s margin favors Democrats by about 11 points.

    Primary margins move in concert with the House vote

    Now that we have a margin for our national primary, we can compare it to the margin of the House popular vote in midterm elections:

    Remarkably, from 2006 to 2022, the two measures were nearly identical. It’s tempting to take these five data points and run with them, but a closer look shows there’s also a good relationship between the two metrics before 2006—just with an offset.

    We can get around this problem, however, by plotting the change in margin for each of these measures. That is to say, if the Democrats’ margin in the national primary was 5 points in a given midterm but 11 points in the next midterm, we’d graph that data point as a 6. The same applies for the House popular vote.

    And once we do this, something even more remarkable emerges:

    Now, we have two measures that, for the most part, follow each other closely across 80 years of data. Prior to the 1940s, the relationship falls apart during the rapid changes in party composition outside of the South, but the ensuing eight decades give us a lot to work with.

    Making a prediction

    Now we get to the final step of the analysis, which reveals an impressively tight correlation between the change in national primary margin and the change in House popular vote stretching all the way back to 1942.

    The diagonal line shows the relationship between the two measures over the past eight decades. The point in the upper right, for instance, represents 2018. The primary margin that cycle was 14 points better than in 2014, and the House popular vote margin was also 14 points better than in 2014.

    This puts the point for 2018 just above the diagonal line, which is known as a regression and describes the historical correlation between the two measures. This means that in 2018, Democrats did just a little better than history—at least, going by this particular metric—would have predicted.

    (For visual clarity, data points from 1986 onward are shown in red while earlier data points are shown in orange, though there’s no difference in behavior between the earlier and later portions of the dataset.)

    A handful of years (1966, 1970, and 2006) might be considered outliers, but excluding them also results in essentially no difference in the equation that defines the regression line we’ve shown above.¹

    As you can see on the right side of the graph, though, we’re quite literally in uncharted territory this cycle. The difference between the national primary margin in 2022 and 2026—18 points—is greater than any other such gap going back to 1942.

    To figure out what the House popular vote might look like based on the 2026 figures, then, we have to extrapolate beyond the regression line in the graph above. This results in a prediction that Democrats will do 16 points better than 2022, when they lost the House popular vote by 3 points.

    That pencils out to an expected margin of 13 points for Democrats in the House vote this year. To put that in perspective, that would be the best performance by Democrats in a midterm since the Watergate elections of 1974, when they won by 17 points. Because we’ve gone beyond the regression line, however, there’s greater uncertainty than usual about this estimate.

    If you look at the spread of data points around the regression line, in fact, you’ll see that a House popular vote anywhere from 4 to 6 points higher or lower is not unusual. That said, there’s nothing in the data that suggests 2026 is likely to be an outlier with a departure much greater than that.

    For example, unlike in 2006, this year the median of primary margin changes at the individual state level is nearly the same as the margin change for the national primary. What’s more, 43 states showed an increase in the Democratic primary margin compared to 2022, so the vast bulk of our data is pointing in one direction.²

    We can also go back in time and see what this technique would have predicted in years past. The earliest date we can reasonably reach back to is 1962, which gives us five prior data points we can use to run a regression.

    Things start out a bit rough without much data to work with and then run headlong into a couple of potential outlier years, but after that the predictions are pretty useful aside from an expected complete flub in 2006. The final November generic ballot numbers from pollster Charles Franklin are also shown for comparison. Both measures have done well in midterms since 2006.

    You might wonder why this relationship hasn’t been noticed before. The answer is that it has—at least, in terms of vote share, rather than the change in vote share.

    Most recently, analyst Ethan Chen, using data compiled by Republican pollster John Couvillon, showed a very close relationship between the midterm House margin and the primary margin going back to 2006 in a subset of states.

    Similarly, David Byler used Couvillon’s data to analyze the implications of primary turnout in 2022. Also in 2022, Lakshya Jain and Kraz Greinetz looked at turnout in midterm and presidential years as a predictor for November results. And back in 2018, Nate Cohn analyzed the data from 2004-2016.

    So far as we’re aware, though, no one has gone back as far as we have, nor has anyone else examined the change in vote share between elections in the way we have.

    What does it all mean for 2026?

    The estimate we get from the national primary this year, although highly favorable to Democrats, is consistent with the special elections data. In other words, two completely independent methods yield results in the same ballpark, and both are in the “as good as or better than 2018” camp along with Donald Trump’s approval ratings, right track/wrong track numbers, economic opinion, and party ID.

    The generic congressional ballot polling, however, is not better for Democrats than it was in 2018—at least, not yet—but it’s close. Below you can see how each of these metrics line up compared to the same point eight years ago.

    Taken all together, the indicators show a political environment that is very favorable to the Democrats. However, one thing that all these indicators cannot account for is the possibility of a major disruption in the final stretch of the campaign season.

    That includes a veritable tidal wave of Republican campaign cash that is only just now getting unleashed. But it also includes the potential for the bottom to truly fall out of Republican support should something like a generational energy crisis emerge—which we may be seeing with the eye-popping spike in gas prices.

    What we can say, though, is that Republicans would need an epic turnaround in their fortunes to retain control of the House. Democrats, meanwhile, can expect a sizable win—and, if the national primary proves predictive, a massive one.

    Thanks to Quinn Yeargain for assistance gathering data on early 20th-century elections.

    1

    There is, however, an increase in the R2 value from 0.68 to 0.84 when these three years are excluded.

    2

    The seven states that did not see an increase in the Democratic primary margin compared to 2022 were Delaware, Florida, Kentucky, Oklahoma, Oregon, South Dakota, and Tennessee.

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    CC Newsletter 21 Sept- Wars, Power, Resistance and the Search for Alternatives

                                                                                                                                                ...