| | |  | BY JOSH SIEGEL AND KELSEY TAMBORRINO | | With help from Joanne Kenen. RUNNING ON E — Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia, a proud fossil fuel-state Democrat, shocked the world by putting his name last week to the biggest climate spending package in U.S. history. Manchin’s surprise agreement with Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer has paved the way for a series of critical votes this weekend on one of President Joe Biden’s signature domestic aid bills. But as significant as the bill is — $369 billion investment in climate and clean energy — Democrats once again found how difficult it is to restrain fossil fuels, which still largely power the economy, as opposed to boosting clean energy. Democrats were forced to lean on a carrots-over-sticks approach, mostly focusing on expanding clean energy tax subsidies in lieu of a carbon tax or other penalties on polluters — measures that have proven politically dangerous for Democrats. And Manchin extracted what some have called “Easter eggs” for oil and gas companies — to the chagrin of climate activists. Manchin also secured a commitment from Democratic leadership to pass legislation later this year to speed up energy permitting, which would help developers build oil and gas pipelines and green infrastructure projects faster. Despite the concessions to the oil and gas industry — and to Manchin — the deal shows that the right combination of incentives and subsidies, rather than a punitive approach, can grease the way for environmental progress. The bill, if passed, would be a major victory for Biden and Democrats who suffered a serious setback at the hands of the Supreme Court in June, issuing a ruling limiting the federal government’s authority to regulate carbon emissions from power plants. It could help generate new enthusiasm from Democratic voters — especially young climate activists whose support helped carry him into office, but who had grown frustrated with the administration’s lack of success over its climate agenda. Manchin and Democrats rebranded the compromise legislation, dubbed the Inflation Reduction Act, as a long-term anecdote to high prices by making the U.S. less dependent on volatile fossil fuel prices. The $369 billion for clean energy and climate in the bill is less than the $555 billion in Biden’s earlier Build Back Better legislation passed by the House, and much less than the $2 trillion he campaigned on. “This bill is very much a compromise and it is hard fought,” said Tiernan Sittenfeld, senior vice president of governmental affairs with the League of Conservation Voters, an environmental group. “It is also the single-biggest thing our country will have ever done to combat the climate crisis.”
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A coal prep plant in rural West Virginia. | Spencer Platt/Getty Images | Early analyses of the plan are positive for Democrats — and the future of the planet. The bill’s hefty tax incentives for low-carbon technologies could enable the country to reduce its greenhouse gas emissions by roughly 40 percent below 2005 levels by the end of this decade, according to research published today by Princeton University’s REPEAT Project. That falls just short of Biden’s goal to cut U.S. emissions by at least 50 percent below 2005 levels by 2030. The tax incentives would remain on the books for a decade, providing certainty to clean energy developers who have faced a series of lapses — and subsequent renewals — for a shorter time frame. They would also expand to new technologies, such as energy storage and direct air capture, and some of the incentives would be eligible for “direct pay,” a main demand made by clean energy companies, allowing them to monetize credits upfront without relying on banks to finance them, although the bill stops short of providing the option for the broad span of tax credits that advocates had called for. And the bill doles out subsidies to make clean technologies that have not been widely adopted cheaper for American consumers, such as electric vehicles and heat pumps. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at joshuasiegel@politico.com and ktamborrino@politico.com or on Twitter at @SiegelScribe and @kelseytam .
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| | STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today . | | | | | | | THE COVID ONE TWO SHUFFLE — Positive. Negative. Positive. For Biden, his top medical adviser Anthony Fauci and an uncertain number of other Americans, that’s the cadence of Covid Rebound, Joanne Kenen , Commonwealth Fund journalist-in-residence at the Johns Hopkins Bloomberg School of Public Health, emailed Nightly. Both men have been vaccinated and boosted but developed breakthrough cases. Given their age, both were prescribed the five-day regimen of the antiviral Paxlovid. Both recovered, testing negative. The virus rebounded a few days later. Biden is in isolation, again. To find out more about Covid rebound, I talked to Bob Wachter, a Covid expert and professor at the UCSF medical school. Based on early clinical trials, rebound Covid only happens between two and five percent of the time in people treated with Paxlovid. But many doctors, Wachter among them, suspect that’s an undercount. “That feels like a ‘don’t believe your eyes number,’” Wachter told me. Ten to 15 percent is probably more realistic, he said, but as it’s not being systematically studied, it’s hard to know. There’s also been inadequate study of Paxlovid dosing. The drug is definitely safe and effective, reducing the risk of hospitalization or death by around 90 percent. But is five days enough? Wachter and many other doctors want to see studies comparing the five-day protocol to ten days, or perhaps seven.
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Construction cones outside the White House after President Biden tested positive again for Covid. | Joshua Roberts/Getty Images | Rebound cases are usually milder than the initial case; the White House says Biden’s case was picked up by routine testing, not because of a return of symptoms. Still, there are several things Wachter worries about. First, people who appear to be “over” Covid but have a silent rebound can spread the virus. That means that people who have recovered but who live with or come into close contact with a high risk or immunocompromised person should test for rebound if “the consequences of turning infectious would be dire,” he said. Second, he worries that the rebound phenomenon will spawn yet another set of covid myths, discouraging people who could benefit from the drug from seeking a prescription. That’s similar to people shunning the Covid vaccine or boosters because the shot is less protective against infection, although it’s still very good at protecting people from serious illness. And, some doctors are already not prescribing Paxlovid, or using it too sparingly. The rebound phenomenon could exacerbate that, creating more barriers to treatment. Wachter thinks the data warrants offering Paxlovid to people over 60 infected with Covid, vaccinated or unvaccinated, as well as those over 40 with significant risk factors. Even if it’s not perfect, he said, “people are safer with it than without it.”
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A message from United for Clean Power, Inc.: The time to take action on planet-saving climate change legislation is NOW. Demand true environmental justice from your Democrat colleagues or block the Reconciliation bill. Over the past decade more than 83% of all disasters around the world were caused by extreme weather and climate-related events. A Reconciliation package without comprehensive climate change provisions would be a catastrophic failure. Demand real climate change action in the Reconciliation package, or kill it altogether. | | | | | — Feds charge 4 officers with violating Breonna Taylor’s rights: The Justice Department today announced charges against four current and former police officers in Louisville, Ky. , in the 2020 killing of Breonna Taylor, alleging violations of Fourth Amendment and civil rights that led to her death. Attorney General Merrick Garland announced that Officers Joshua Jaynes and Kelly Goodlett and Sgt. Kyle Meany had been charged with Fourth Amendment violations for pursuing a warrant they knew contained false information. A former detective, Brett Hankison, was also charged in a separate indictment with violating Taylor’s civil rights.
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| — DeSantis suspends state attorney who vowed not to enforce Florida’s new abortion law: Gov. Ron DeSantis today suspended a Tampa-area elected state attorney who recently became the only prosecutor in Florida to sign a pledge that he would not prosecute people under the state’s newly enacted abortion law. The suspension of 13th Judicial Circuit State Attorney Andrew Warren is effective immediately, and comes as he has not only taken outspoken stances on Florida’s newest abortion law but was seen as a rising figure in Florida Democratic circles.
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| | INTRODUCING POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY . | | | | | — Alex Jones ordered to pay Sandy Hook parents more than $4M: A Texas jury today ordered conspiracy theorist Alex Jones to pay more than $4 million in compensatory damages to the parents of a 6-year-old boy who was killed in the Sandy Hook Elementary School massacre, marking the first time the Infowars host has been held financially liable for repeatedly claiming the deadliest school shooting in U.S. history was a hoax. The Austin jury must still decide how much the Infowars host must pay in punitive damages to Neil Heslin and Scarlett Lewis, whose son Jesse Lewis was among the 20 children and six educators who were killed in the 2012 attack in Newtown, Connecticut. — Wray: Allegations ‘troubling’ about FBI agent covering up Hunter Biden information: FBI Director Christopher Wray said today that allegations of an FBI agent’s partisan social media posts and efforts to suppress information in the investigation into Hunter Biden’s business activities were “deeply troubling.” Speaking at a Senate Judiciary Committee oversight hearing, Wray appeared to condemn the alleged actions of Timothy Thibault, an FBI assistant special agent in charge at the Washington field office until “relatively recently.” — San Francisco’s ousted district attorney won’t run again: There will be no Chesa Boudin rematch this year. The former San Francisco district attorney announced today that he would not run to wrest back the seat he lost in a June recall election , averting a second bruising clash over criminal justice. Voters ousted Boudin by a broad ten-point margin, vindicating recall backers who argued the progressive prosecutor had undermined public safety with overly lenient charging decisions. — Dick Cheney calls Donald Trump a ‘coward’ in ad for daughter’s reelection: Former Vice President Dick Cheney, in an ad released today to boost his daughter Liz’s reelection campaign, took direct aim at Trump . “In our nation’s 246-year history, there has never been an individual who is a greater threat to our republic than Donald Trump,” Cheney said, looking directly into the camera. “He tried to steal the last election using lies and violence to keep himself in power after the voters had rejected him. He is a coward. A real man wouldn’t lie to his supporters. He lost his election, and he lost big.”
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| | A message from United for Clean Power, Inc.:  
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| NINE YEARS — Biden said today that the guilty verdict and nine-year sentence handed by a Russian court to American basketball star Brittney Griner is “unacceptable,” calling for her immediate release. “My administration will continue to work tirelessly and pursue every possible avenue to bring Brittney and Paul Whelan home safely,” Biden said. Attention is now expected to turn to the possibility of a high-stakes prisoner swap proposed by the Biden administration that would involve both Griner and Whelan, a former U.S. Marine detained in 2018 in Russia on espionage charges. The proposed trade would also include Russian arms dealer Viktor Bout. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken noted that the length of Griner’s sentence — for smuggling cannabis oil — “further compounds the injustice of her wrongful detention.” ‘MISCALCULATION AND MISPERCEPTION’ — The Pentagon has directed the aircraft carrier USS Ronald Reagan to remain in the area near Taiwan “to monitor the situation” as China launches missiles in the region, writes Olivia Olander. In addition, the U.S. has delayed a planned test of a Minuteman III intercontinental ballistic missile to avoid increasing tensions, National Security Council spokesperson John Kirby told reporters today. “As China engages in destabilizing military exercises around Taiwan, the United States is demonstrating instead the behavior of a responsible nuclear power, by reducing the risks of miscalculation and misperception,” Kirby said of the decision, which comes amid House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taiwan. Beijing has kicked off live-fire exercises, launching missiles over Taiwan and positioning warships around the island.
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A message from United for Clean Power, Inc.: This is Democrats’ last chance to save the planet and if we fail, there may never be another opportunity to rescue the next generation from our mistakes. Our planet is in crisis. The time to take action on real planet-saving climate change legislation is NOW. Demand true environmental justice from your Democrat colleagues or kill the Reconciliation bill. Over the past decade more than 83% of all disasters around the world were caused by extreme weather and climate-related events. Half-measures that compromise are NOT acceptable. We have the power and we have the means to get this done. After November, that may not be the case. A Reconciliation package without comprehensive climate change provisions would be a catastrophic failure. Demand true climate change action in the Reconciliation package, or block it’s passage altogether. | | | | | | |
6,600 The amount of monkeypox cases that have been reported in the United States, a number that has sharply risen in recent weeks. The Biden administration today declared monkeypox a public health emergency , as critics and health experts accuse the White House of failing to mount an aggressive push to distribute treatments and vaccines. |
| | | DEEP DIVE ON SBF — Elena Scheider has a story out today on crypto billionaire Sam Bankman-Fried, who has jumped into national politics head-first: One of the biggest donors in Democratic politics this year isn’t sure if he really wants to be a Democratic megadonor — at least not on the party’s terms. But then, part of life as Sam Bankman-Fried is about embracing paradoxes. The 30-year-old, who has amassed an estimated $20 billion fortune over the last four years through cryptocurrency, drives a hybrid Toyota Corolla. A monk-like aesthetic extends from his clothes — he showed up to chat in a wrinkled T-shirt and beat-up New Balance sneakers — to his personal life. He shares a penthouse with about 10 roommates and cooks for himself. He still uses his parents’ Netflix account. When he lobbies in Washington, D.C., he’ll often crash on his brother’s couch. He was also one of just a handful of donors who spent $10 million-plus backing Biden in 2020, and in the last year, he’s hired a network of political operatives and spent tens of millions more shaping Democratic House primaries. It was a shocking wave of spending that looked like it could remake the Democratic Party bench in Washington, candidate by candidate. Looking ahead to the 2024 election, he has said he could spend anywhere from $100 million to $1 billion. The head-spinning speed of Bankman-Fried’s entrance onto the national political scene kicked off a race in Washington to understand him and define him — as a potential Democratic savior, a head-scratching mystery or, occasionally, a corrupt crypto bogeyman. Candidates, consultants and members of Congress are all eager to direct the millions he’s spending. And Bankman-Fried seemingly wandered into the middle of the Democratic Party and pulled out his wallet at the exact moment when many Democratic megadonors are pulling back, all ahead of a blistering midterm environment. Read the full story . Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here . | |
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