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Why did we think Democrats had a real shot at flipping not one but two Republican seats in special elections last night? Two words: Ron DeSantis.
In both races, the pattern was strikingly similar. DeSantis appoints a GOP lawmaker to a different post, then refuses to schedule a special election until someone files a lawsuit.
It’s a real tell. If DeSantis had felt confident about defending both seats, then why not hold elections as soon as possible? The answer, of course, is that he didn’t.
We pay close attention to the hard data—election results, fundraising figures, poll numbers—but the actions of powerful politicians can be just as revealing. Separating the signal from the noise is seldom straightforward, but we’ve honed our skills over more than two decades. Recognizing patterns is something we excel at, and using them to provide context is what distinguishes our analysis from all the rest.
If you appreciate the long experience we bring to our coverage of overlooked elections, then we hope you’ll consider supporting us as a paid subscriber. You’ll unlock access to subscriber-only content and features, and you’ll be helping to ensure our health and success as a tiny but mighty independent media outlet.
Thank you,
The Downballot team
Morning Digest: A key test awaits a Texas Democrat in a suddenly compelling race
GOP chaos has prompted new interest in Katy Padilla Stout. Will money follow?
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Leading Off
TX-23
Attorney Katy Padilla Stout received an endorsement on Tuesday from EMILYs List, a week before the end of her most important fundraising quarter to date.
A month ago, Padilla Stout was one of four underfunded candidates competing for the right to take on Republican Rep. Tony Gonzales in Texas’ 23rd Congressional District, a sprawling West Texas constituency that Donald Trump carried 57-42 in 2024. Padilla Stout had brought in less than $50,000 through Feb. 11, which was the end of the most recent reporting period.
But the race completely transformed over the ensuing six weeks. The upheaval on the Republican side, as well as the Texas GOP’s shaky standing with Latino voters along the border with Mexico, have Democrats taking a new look at Padilla Stout’s prospects.
Gonzales’ campaign started to collapse on Feb. 17, when the San Antonio Express-News published new evidence that he’d had an affair with Regina Santos-Aviles, a subordinate who died by suicide in September. Brandon Herrera, a far-right “gunfluencer” whom Gonzales had narrowly fended off in 2024, went on to outpace the incumbent 43-42 in the primary on March 3.
While Herrera, who has over four million subscribers on his YouTube channel and tweets under the handle “TheAKGuy,” had fallen short of the majority needed to win the nomination outright, he learned two days later that a May 26 runoff would not be necessary.
A day after Gonzales admitted to his relationship with Santos-Aviles for the first time, he ended his reelection campaign after GOP leaders in the House called on him to step aside.
Padilla Stout, who beat her nearest primary opponent 52-27, is now arguing that she can defeat Herrera and flip a district that Democrats had all but given up on.
Padilla Stout has emphasized her opponent’s extremism, which stands out even in today’s political environment.
In one clip from Herrera’s podcast surfaced by Democrats, the Republican noted that he owns a copy of Adolf Hitler’s “Mein Kampf.”
“That’s my copy at my house next to a bunch of the German stick grenades.”
In response, Herrera told the Express-News, “I bought a copy for my historic book collection, and I keep it right next to my copy of the Communist manifesto.” He added, “I uh, don’t agree with either book,” and that he found this line of attack “hilarious.”
But Padilla Stout thinks that Herrera, whose history of offensive remarks about the Holocaust surfaced during his first campaign against Gonzales, is anything but funny.
“He is trying to normalize hate and desensitize people to that, therefore making discrimination easier,” she told Texas Public Radio this month.
Padilla Stout also believes that Herrera’s hostility to gun safety should disqualify him in a constituency that’s home to Uvalde, the site of the 2022 school shooting that resulted in the deaths of 19 students and two teachers.
“This district has elected Democrats. It’s elected Republicans,” she told the New York Times. “But one thing it has never elected is an extremist.”
Padilla Stout has argued that her deep ties to the 23rd District will give West Texas voters who have turned against the Democratic Party in recent years another reason to take a look at her.
Padilla Stout was raised in San Antonio and taught school there, while Herrera only relocated from North Carolina to Texas in 2021. The Democrat argued to the Times that Herrera’s relatively recent arrival in the Lone Star State makes him an “outsider.”
EMILYs List, an influential organization that backs pro-choice Democratic women, also believes that Herrera is toxic enough to give Padilla Stout an opening.
“Republican chaos and scandal has put Texas’ 23rd Congressional District in play, and Katy Padilla Stout can flip this seat,” the group said in its statement endorsing her. “As a public school teacher, child welfare attorney, and mother of four, Katy has seen firsthand the struggles her community faces and has spent her career providing real solutions to help Texas families.”
The House Majority PAC, which is the main pro-Democratic super PAC involved in House races, has also signaled that it could play a role in the general election. The group publicized a survey from Public Policy Polling earlier this month showing Herrera leading Padilla Stout just 42-40.
Outside Democratic organizations, though, will be watching to see whether Padilla Stout can raise the type of money necessary to run a serious effort in what’s still a Republican-leaning constituency. The current fundraising period ends on the evening of March 31, and updated disclosures are due by April 15.
Padilla Stout, who had less than $10,000 banked on Feb. 11, said she’d seen a surge of donations in March. She told Texas Public Radio last week, “Fundraising has quadrupled, if not more, since Mr. Herrera has become the nominee.” (The relevant portion of the interview begins at the 19:05 mark.)
Padilla Stout added that the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee “has been in communication with us,” though she said she didn’t yet know if it would devote resources to her campaign.
Republican leaders like Trump and Speaker Mike Johnson, by contrast, quickly consolidated behind Herrera after Gonzales bowed out of the race.
Herrera’s old intraparty critics, by contrast, have largely remained on the sidelines ever since he secured the GOP nod. An official for the Republican Jewish Coalition, which aired ads against Herrera in 2024, told Politico it “has a longstanding policy of speaking out against those who traffic in Nazi ideology” but said the group would not cross party lines to help Padilla Stout defeat him.
We pay close attention to the hard data—election results, fundraising figures, poll numbers—but the actions of powerful politicians can be just as revealing. That’s why we sat up and took notice when Ron DeSantis refused to schedule two of Tuesday’s special elections until he was sued. That lack of confidence, it turned out, was an important signal, since Democrats flipped both seats.
If you appreciate the long experience we bring to our coverage of overlooked elections, then we hope you’ll consider supporting us as a paid subscriber. You’ll unlock access to subscriber-only content and features, and you’ll be helping to ensure our health and success as a tiny but mighty independent media outlet. Thank you.
Election Recaps
Special Elections
Florida Democrats flipped not one but two seats in special elections on Tuesday night, including one district that includes Mar-a-Lago and another previously held by Ron DeSantis’ lieutenant governor.
The Downballot sent out a pair of breaking news alerts to our readers with our full recaps of both races. In the first, Democrat Emily Gregory defeated a Trump-backed opponent and will now represent Trump in the Florida House.
And in the second, Democrat Brian Nathan beat a much better-funded rival to put Democrats just one seat away from breaking the GOP’s supermajority in the state Senate.
Keep track of every special election by bookmarking our continually updated Big Board.
Redistricting Roundup
MO Redistricting
A divided Missouri Supreme Court ruled on Tuesday that lawmakers have the power to redraw the state’s congressional map in the middle of the decade, but new districts passed by Republicans last year are still in jeopardy.
In a 4-3 decision, the majority held that the state Constitution requires the legislature to revisit the map after each census but does not forbid it from doing so at other times.
However, opponents of the new map have gathered signatures to place a referendum on the ballot that would allow voters to veto it. This week, organizers said that data they obtained from the state shows that a sufficient number of signatures have passed muster to allow the referendum to go forward.
Senate
AL-Sen
Rep. Barry Moore received endorsements from Senate Majority Leader John Thune and the National Republican Senatorial Committee on Tuesday in the GOP primary for Alabama’s open Senate seat.
The GOP leadership is consolidating behind Moore two months after Donald Trump backed the congressman, an election conspiracy theorist and member of the nihilistic House Freedom Caucus.
Moore faces Navy SEAL veteran Jared Hudson, Attorney General Steve Marshall, and wealthy businessman Rodney Walker on May 19. A primary runoff would take place on June 16 unless one candidate wins a majority of the vote in the first round.
IA-Sen
VoteVets, an influential group that backs Democrats with backgrounds in national security, says it’s spending $825,000 on ads to support state Rep. Josh Turek in the June 2 primary for Senate in Iowa. This is the first outside spending in the nomination contest between Turek and state Sen. Zach Wahls.
While Turek, who won two gold medals and a bronze as a wheelchair basketball player at the Paralympics, did not serve in the military, VoteVets’ opening ad highlights that he was “[b]orn with spina bifida after his dad was exposed to Agent Orange in Vietnam.”
The narrator continues, “Twenty-one surgeries by age twelve. But he outworked the competition until he made Team USA. And climbed thousands of steps to meet voters and become a state legislator.”
The spot does not mention Wahls or Rep. Ashley Hinson, the likely Republican nominee for this open Senate seat.
OK-Sen
Following Republican Sen. Markwayne Mullin’s confirmation as Donald Trump’s new Homeland Security secretary on Monday, Oklahoma Gov. Kevin Stitt announced that he would appoint oil executive Alan Armstrong to replace Mullin in the Senate.
But Armstrong, who was sworn in Tuesday afternoon, will not seek a full term when Mullin’s seat is up in November. Rather, Republicans from Trump on down have already rallied around Rep. Kevin Hern, who will face little trouble winning both the primary and general elections.
House
FL-16
Donald Trump on Tuesday pledged to endorse Sydney Gruters, the executive director of the New College of Florida Foundation, if she runs to succeed retiring GOP Rep. Vern Buchanan.
“Word is that Sydney Gruters, the wife of our GREAT Chairman of the Republican National Committee, Joe Gruters, is considering launching her Campaign for Congress in Florida’s 16th Congressional District!” Trump told his Truth Social followers. “RUN, SYDNEY, RUN!”
Gruters responded with a statement expressing her gratitude for Trump’s pre-endorsement and saying she “look[s] forward to making an announcement about the path ahead very soon.”
Gruters would face Eddie Speir, a wealthy Christian charter school founder who lost the 2024 primary to Buchanan 61-39. Most other would-be Republican candidates appear to be waiting to see whether either of the Gruters would run to replace Buchanan, who announced his retirement nearly two months ago, in this conservative constituency in the Tampa suburbs.
NJ-07
Criminal justice professor Beth Adubato and former Department of Agriculture official Megan O’Rourke both dropped out of the Democratic primary to take on GOP Rep. Tom Kean Jr. ahead of Monday’s candidate filing deadline.
Four Democrats ultimately submitted signatures to appear on the June 2 primary ballot for New Jersey’s 7th District, a competitive constituency located in the southwestern suburbs and exurbs of New York City. The field consists of Navy veteran Rebecca Bennett; physician Tina Shah; and a pair of businessmen, Michael Roth and Brian Varela.
NJ-12
Four Democratic candidates dropped out of the still-busy primary for New Jersey’s safely blue 12th District just before filing closed on Monday.
Millstone Mayor Raymond Heck announced that he would instead endorse Somerset County Commissioner Shanel Robinson, who is one of the 13 Democrats who filed to run to succeed retiring Rep. Bonnie Watson Coleman.
The other three now-former contenders—businessman Mike Anderson, physician Rick Morales, housing policy researcher Iziah Thompson—did not express a preference.
NV-03
Gov. Joe Lombardo on Monday backed businessman Marty O’Donnell’s second campaign to take on Democratic Rep. Susie Lee ahead of the June 9 GOP primary for Nevada’s 3rd Congressional District. Lombardo’s endorsement, though, proved to be of limited value to O’Donnell two years ago.
O’Donnell, who helped compose the soundtracks for several entries in the “Halo” videogame franchise, appeared to be a frontrunner going into the 2024 primary for this competitive constituency in the southwestern Las Vegas area.
His self-described “side quest” into politics, however, did not go well. Conservative columnist Drew Johnson beat another candidate 32-22, while O’Donnell took fourth place with 20%. Lee ended up outpacing Johnson 51-49 as Donald Trump carried her district 49.5 to 48.8.
O’Donnell announced his new effort a few months later, promising to “only file for office next year if President Trump supports me.” But Trump’s continued neutrality didn’t prevent O’Donnell from putting his name forward before filing closed on March 13.
This time, O’Donnell faces three intraparty opponents: real estate agent Tera Anderson; neurosurgeon Aury Nagy; and Jeff Gunter, a former Ambassador to Iceland who badly lost the 2024 Senate primary.
OK-01
Jackson Lahmeyer, an evangelical pastor who founded a group called Pastors for Trump, announced Tuesday that he was joining the Republican primary for Oklahoma’s open 1st District in the Tulsa area.
In 2022, Lahmeyer waged a long-shot effort to deny renomination to Sen. James Lankford, whom the challenger said “caved like an absolute coward” by voting to recognize Joe Biden’s victory.
Lahmeyer gained notice after he earned the endorsement of the head of the state GOP, and again later when he promised to grant a religious exemption for COVID-19 vaccinations to anyone who donated to his church. But while he ended up raising almost $900,000, the well-funded Lankford easily beat him 68-26.
Lahmeyer, though, became more prominent over the ensuing years after his church turned into what NOTUS characterized as “a political hot spot for President Donald Trump’s inner circle.” Lahmeyer’s venue has played host to notables like FBI director Kash Patel and Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump.
Lahmeyer joins three other notable Republicans in the race to succeed GOP Rep. Kevin Hern, who announced earlier this month that he was giving up this conservative constituency to run for the Senate. State Rep. Mark Tedford and state Corporation Commissioner Kim David launched campaigns shortly after Hern kicked off his bid for a promotion, while Navy veteran Jackson Stallings joined them last week.
Anyone else who wants to run has until April 3 to file. The primary will take place June 16, but candidates need to win a majority of the vote to avert a runoff on Aug. 25.
TX-33
Former Rep. Colin Allred has now received the backing of both the third- and fourth-place candidates in the March 3 Democratic primary as he faces Rep. Julie Johnson in a May 26 runoff.
On Tuesday, perennial candidate Carlos Quintanilla, who took 14% of the vote, endorsed Allred, following the same move last week by tech executive Zeeshan Hafeez, who finished with 8%. Allred led Johnson 44-33 in the first round of voting.
Attorneys General
MI-AG
Far-right conspiracy theorist Matthew DePerno, who never actually launched a second bid for state attorney general that had once looked all but certain, has instead endorsed a man he called an “ass hat” last year.
DePerno, who remains under indictment for allegedly participating in a scheme to illegally obtain a voting machine, set up a fundraising committee last year and even tweeted, “Getting ready to roll . . .”
But roll he did not. Four years after losing to Democratic incumbent Dana Nessel by a 53-45 margin, DePerno evidently thought better of another campaign. With the Michigan GOP’s endorsement convention looming this weekend, DePerno threw his support to Eaton County Prosecutor Doug Lloyd, one of two candidates vying for the party’s nod.
Democrats, though, would be delighted if DePerno’s earlier comments about Lloyd prove prophetic.
“This ass hat will never be the nominee for Michigan Attorney General. I will see to that,” DePerno posted on X last July. “He is a RINO and a clown. He is buddies with Dana Nessel. Do not be fooled by this charlatan.”
DePerno has since deleted the tweet.
In his quest for the Republican nomination, Eaton faces attorney Kevin Kijewski, who represented one of the phony electors who sought to overturn the 2020 presidential election by posing as members of the Electoral College and falsely claiming that Donald Trump had won Michigan’s electoral votes. Nessel announced earlier this month that she would not appeal a judge’s decision dismissing the case.
Meanwhile, Oakland County Prosecutor Karen McDonald appears to have the inside track to win the support of the state Democratic Party, which will hold its own convention on April 19.
Legislatures
NC State Senate
State Senate President Pro Tempore Phil Berger conceded the March 3 Republican primary to Rockingham County Sheriff Sam Page on Tuesday after he failed to pick up any votes in a partial hand recount.
Berger, who has been the most powerful Republican in North Carolina’s state government since 2011, benefited from Donald Trump’s endorsement and more than $10 million in spending. But Page, who attacked Berger for backing an unpopular local casino project that never went forward, triumphed 50.04 to 49.96—a margin of 23 votes.
Page should easily prevail in the general election for the reliably red 26th District around Greensboro, but the expensive primary could still hurt Republicans in the fall. The New York Times reported last month that some Republicans feared that Berger was diverting cash that his caucus needs to protect its three-fifths supermajority in November.
Poll Pile
NH-Sen (R): Saint Anselm College:
John Sununu: 49, Scott Brown: 28. (Nov.: 39-30 Sununu.)
NH-Sen (D): Saint Anselm:
Chris Pappas: 71, Karishma Manzur: 9. (Nov.: 64-8 Pappas.)
NH-Sen: Saint Anselm:
Pappas (D): 46, Sununu (R): 43. (Nov.: 44-41 Pappas.)
Pappas (D): 47, Brown (R): 38. (Nov.: 44-36 Pappas.)
CA-Gov (top-two primary): Evitarus for the California Democratic Party:
Steve Hilton (R): 16, Chad Bianco (R): 14, Eric Swalwell (D): 10, Katie Porter (D): 10, Tom Steyer (D): 10, other candidates 3% or less, undecided: 24.
MI-Gov (R): JMC Analytics:
John James: 23, Perry Johnson: 20, Mike Cox: 6, Aric Nesbitt: 5, Tom Leonard: 3, undecided: 44.
JMC says it is “not affiliated with any candidate running for Governor.”
NH-Gov (D): Saint Anselm:
Cinde Warmington: 40, Jonathan Kiper: 13.
NH-Gov: Saint Anselm:
Kelly Ayotte (R-inc): 46, Warmington (D): 39.
Ayotte (R-inc): 45, Kiper (D): 31.
RI-Gov (D): Concord Public Opinion Partners for Democrats for Education Reform:
Helena Foulkes: 24, Dan McKee (inc): 15.
Democrats for Education Reform has not expressed a preference in this race.
WI-Gov (D): Marquette University Law School:
Francesca Hong: 14, Mandela Barnes: 11, other candidates 3% or less, undecided: 65. (Feb.: 11-10 Hong.)
WI-Gov (R): Marquette:
Tom Tiffany: 40, Andy Manske: 6, undecided: 54. (Feb.: 35-2 Tiffany.)
NH-02: Saint Anselm:
Maggie Goodlander (D-inc): 48, Lily Tang Williams (R): 36. (Nov.: 40-35 Goodlander.)
NV-SoS: The Tarrance Group for RightCount Nevada:
Cisco Aguilar (D-inc): 49, Shirley Folkins-Roberts (R): 47.
The Nevada Independent describes RightCount Nevada as a group founded by Republicans “to restore trust in elections.”
The release did not include results testing any of the other Republican candidates against Aguilar.
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