POLITICO Nightly: New Hampshire is the whole ballgame

BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN A supporter waits in line ahead of a rally for former President Donald Trump today in Atkinson, New Hampshire. | Brandon Bell/Getty Images IT’S GETTING LATE EARLY — Iowa produced a decisive outcome on Monday, but it left some questions unsettled. Donald Trump posted a sweeping, 30-point victory, but among a small sample: Boiled down to its essence, his victory was built on the votes of just 7 percent of Iowa’s registered GOP voters. Second place wasn’t really resolved either — Ron DeSantis edged out Nikki Haley, with neither delivering an inspiring performance. The caucuses did accomplish one thing, however: They made New Hampshire the whole ballgame. With Asa Hutchinson’s departure from the race today and Chris Christie’s exit last week, the most vigorous Trump critics are out of the race. GOP congressional leadership, with the exception of Sen. Mitch McConnell, has largely folded and fallen in line. Now, short of a Trump defeat in New Hampshire — or a close second-place finish from Haley or DeSantis — it’s looking like the nominating fight might not make it out of January. DeSantis traveled today to South Carolina, which makes some sense. He’s a distant third in New Hampshire and is better-suited for South Carolina’s Feb. 24 primary. But there’s a full month between the two primaries, and without a surprise result in New Hampshire, his campaign is not built to last that long. Haley is just as pressed. She won only one of Iowa’s 99 counties, and just barely — by a single vote. The story told by the Iowa entrance polls was a grim one. She failed to win among college graduates and got crushed among non-college grads. She finished a close third among women and a very distant third among white evangelical Christians. Her strengths? Haley ran strongest among self-described moderates/liberals and those looking for a candidate with the right temperament. She finished first among caucus goers for whom foreign policy matters most. She dominated among those who think Joe Biden won the presidency legitimately and those who would not consider Donald Trump fit to be president if he were to be convicted of a crime. Those traits might make her a formidable candidate in a general election, but not in a GOP primary. In the contemporary Republican Party, it’s the profile of a candidate with a short shelf-life. In the wake of Iowa’s results, Haley’s donors are already getting antsy — CNBC reported today that she faces pressure from some of her top fundraisers to either win New Hampshire or finish a close second. Without that momentum, there’s little chance of winning her home state of South Carolina four weeks later — Haley currently trails Trump there by a wide margin in the polls. (The two Nevada contests and the Virgin Islands caucus that will take place between Feb. 6 and 8 won’t provide nearly enough oxygen.) What Iowa has inadvertently done is conceal Trump’s flaws — that is, it accentuated his strength among Republicans and camouflaged his vulnerability in a general election — while shining a light on the weaknesses of his remaining foes. The result is that the primary timeline has been accelerated, making New Hampshire more than just the first-in-the-nation primary, but possibly the last one that matters. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .   GLOBAL PLAYBOOK IS TAKING YOU TO DAVOS! Unlock the insider's guide to one of the world's most influential gatherings as POLITICO's Global Playbook takes you behind the scenes of the 2024 World Economic Forum. Author Suzanne Lynch will be on the ground in the Swiss Alps, bringing you the exclusive conversations, shifting power dynamics and groundbreaking ideas shaping the agenda in Davos. Stay in the know with POLITICO's Global Playbook, your VIP pass to the world’s most influential gatherings. SUBSCRIBE NOW .     WHAT'D I MISS? — Court blocks JetBlue’s attempt to buy Spirit Airlines: The Justice Department and state attorneys general have successfully blocked JetBlue Airways’ $3.8 billion attempted purchase of ultra low-cost carrier Spirit Airlines , the second federal court decision in the past year delivering a blow to further consolidation in the U.S. airline industry. In a 113-page opinion issued today, U.S. District Judge William Young in Boston blocked the deal from closing. — House GOP hits pause on Hunter Biden contempt vote: House Republicans have paused their efforts to hold Hunter Biden in contempt of Congress , as they negotiate a new date for a closed-door interview. The House Rules Committee will no longer tee up a contempt resolution for a floor vote during its meeting today, contrary to Republicans’ previous plans. A leadership aide familiar with the decision, granted anonymity to discuss internal deliberations, added that “negotiations are now underway for him to comply with the subpoena, so we are holding on the contempt vote while they work to set a date.” — Supreme Court rejects antitrust fight challenging Apple’s app store: Apple beat back a key antitrust challenge to its app store today after the Supreme Court declined to intervene in a yearslong legal fight. The high court, without explaining, said it will not hear appeals of a lower court ruling in a case brought in 2020 by Epic Games, maker of the popular online game Fortnite, against Apple. The decision leaves in place a ruling that was largely a win for Apple, and puts a spotlight on the Justice Department, which is in the final innings of four-year antitrust probe of the company. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 SWING STATE ALARM — Former President Donald Trump leads President Joe Biden in Georgia according to a new poll . The survey, from the Atlanta Journal-Constitution and the University of Georgia, Trump held a 45 percent to 37 percent lead over the incumbent Democrat among registered voters. The rest of the respondents, about 20%, said they either were not sure, not voting or would be supporting another candidate. ON THE ATTACK — Nikki Haley is trying a risky new tactic in the Republican presidential race: She’s mounting an attack on Donald Trump . One day after her third-place finish in Iowa, the former South Carolina governor’s campaign and a pro-Haley super PAC began promoting TV ads here depicting Trump as a bully and a liar. Her campaign released a memo calling the former president “more vulnerable than commonly believed.” And Haley announced she would not participate in two scheduled debates media outlets scheduled ahead of the New Hampshire primary unless Trump joined her on stage — suggesting she plans to ignore Ron DeSantis and train her fire on the frontrunner. ASA OUT — Former Arkansas Gov. Asa Hutchinson ended his long-shot bid for the White House today. The former two-term governor entered the race in April with an eye toward taking on former President Donald Trump, who saw a decisive win in Iowa on Monday night. Hutchinson found himself increasingly without a political home in a party that has embraced the man who once seemed toxic in the wake of Jan. 6, 2021. CANCEL CULTURE — ABC News has canceled a planned debate in New Hampshire , after GOP presidential candidate Nikki Haley said today that she would only step foot on the debate stage again if Donald Trump or Joe Biden is there. The upcoming debates were slated to take place before the New Hampshire primary on Jan. 23. ABC News planned to partner with WMUR-TV to host a debate on Thursday, and CNN announced it would host a debate on Sunday. AROUND THE WORLD Houthi fighters and tribesmen stage a rally against the U.S. and the U.K. strikes on Houthi-run military sites near Sanaa, Yemen, on Sunday, Jan. 14, 2024. | AP MORE FIRE — The U.S. military carried out preemptive strikes on Houthi positions in Yemen today, destroying four anti-ship ballistic missiles that the rebels were ready to launch, according to five U.S. officials, reports POLITICO. The strikes marked the latest salvo in an escalating tit-for-tat in the Red Sea. The U.S., along with its allies, launched a barrage of air and sea-based missiles against Houthi military targets in Yemen on Thursday and Friday last week, in retaliation for missile and drone strikes on international shipping. Those coalition strikes have not deterred the Houthis from continuing to attack commercial vessels: A Houthi missile fired on Monday hit the American-owned Gibraltar Eagle, a bulk carrier that was sailing under the flag of the Marshall Islands. The attacks today were on a much smaller scale and “dynamic” in nature, meaning they were not pre-planned and rather taken in self-defense against missiles that presented an imminent threat to international shipping, one of the officials said. All of the officials were granted anonymity to speak about a sensitive operation before an official announcement. U.S. forces observed the Houthis preparing to launch the four ballistic missiles today, presumably against ships in the Red Sea. The head of U.S. Central Command then ordered U.S. forces to take out the threat, according to one of the officials. HELP COMING — France and Qatar, the Persian Gulf nation that helped mediate a previous cease-fire, said late today that they had brokered a deal between Israel and Hamas to deliver medicine to Israeli hostages in Gaza , as well as additional aid to Palestinians in the besieged territory, reports The Associated Press. France said it had been working since October on the deal, which will provide three months’ worth of medication for 45 hostages with chronic illnesses, as well as other medicines and vitamins. The medicines are expected to enter Gaza from Egypt on Wednesday. It’s the first known agreement between the warring sides since a weeklong truce in November.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS : From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      NIGHTLY NUMBER $1.9 billion The amount that New York Democratic Gov. Kathy Hochul proposes spending on the migrant crisis in the state within her $233 billion spending plan for New York for the coming year. RADAR SWEEP MELTDOWN — In the icy waters near Antarctica, a new arch-decorated iceberg has emerged— all due to erosion from climate change . The iceberg, known as A23a after it broke off of the Antarctica coast in 1986, is twice the size of the Greater London area but only recently started drifting in the water around the continent. But a ship run by Eyos expeditions got close enough to send a drone and see the iceberg is collapsing in certain areas to create arches and caves in the colossal ice formation. In this story for BBC, Jonathan Amos discusses how warmer water and air has started to melt the surfaces of A23a, bearing the question of how much longer the decades-old iceberg will survive. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1992: The El Salvadoran Peace Accords are signed at Chapultepec Castle in Mexico City between the government of El Salvador and the FMLN guerrilla leaders, officially ending the country's 12-year civil war. Pictured is General Mauricio Ernesto Vargas (center right) of the Salvadoran armed forces embracing Schafik Handel (left) commander of the FMLN. | Joe Cavaretta/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Mia McCarthy @Reporter_Mia   FOLLOW US

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POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: We're onto New Hampshire

BY LISA KASHINSKY , KELLY GARRITY AND MIA MCCARTHY PROGRAMMING NOTE: The nation’s political axis is shifting to New Hampshire for the next eight days — and we’re shifting with it. Lisa's heading to our neighbor to the north, and Mia McCarthy is joining Kelly in helming Playbook. So with that: Send your Massachusetts tips and scoops to mmccarthy@politico.com and kgarrity@politico.com and send your New Hampshire tidbits to lkashinsky@politico.com . Republican presidential candidate Donald Trump speaks to a roomful of people with his family and other political leaders by his side on stage at his caucus night victory event at HyVee Hall in Des Moines, Iowa, on Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. | Jamie Kelter Davis for POLITICO PRIMARY SPRINT — There were three tickets out of Iowa Monday night. Only one looks like it’s not in steerage. Donald Trump pulled off a commanding victory in the caucuses — and told his rivals it was time to get out. One of them listened: Vivek Ramaswamy ended his campaign and endorsed Trump. He’ll appear with the former president this evening in New Hampshire. But Ron DeSantis and Nikki Haley, who finished a distant second and third, respectively, are carrying on. And their campaigns both argued Monday night that the caucus results made this a two-person race — and not against each other. That was the spin room. Here are the real takeaways : WHAT HAPPENS IN IOWA STAYS IN IOWA — Let’s get this one out of the way: Iowa’s results will ripple into New Hampshire. But there’s a limit to their impact. Past Iowa caucus winners don’t have a great track record in New Hampshire or in earning the GOP presidential nomination. Recall how Iowans picked former Arkansas Gov. Mike Huckabee in 2008, former Pennsylvania Sen. Rick Santorum in 2012 and Texas Sen. Ted Cruz in 2016, and none of them went on to secure the nomination. New Hampshire, meanwhile, picked Arizona Sen. John McCain in 2008, former Massachusetts Gov. Mitt Romney in 2012 and Trump in 2016. “Iowa has never had much of an influence on a New Hampshire primary campaign,” veteran GOP strategist Mike Dennehy, who worked on McCain’s campaigns, told Playbook. “Ted Cruz won Iowa, and he bombed in New Hampshire. Rick Santorum won in Iowa and bombed in New Hampshire.” TRUMP TRAIN — Trump will return to New Hampshire this evening — on the heels of a New York court appearance — riding high: He won all but one of Iowa’s 99 counties , based on unofficial tallies, and will likely pick up Ramaswamy’s supporters in the Granite State. Dennehy says those extra voters "will likely seal the deal for him.” But Matthew Bartlett, another GOP strategist, argues that Trump is still “on definitely shakier footing” in the first primary state, where polling averages show him under the 50-percent support he surpassed in Iowa. HALEY AIMS HIGH — Haley has been waiting for the race to turn to New Hampshire, where she’s long been ascendant and where she has the backing of the state’s popular Republican governor, Chris Sununu. She didn’t have a stellar night in Iowa — Sununu predicted at the beginning of this month that she’d finish a “strong second." (He later tempered that.) But her supporters are spinning it as a solid performance given that she’s put more effort into New Hampshire. Dennehy’s advice, which we wouldn’t be surprised if Haley takes: “Just forget that [Iowa] even happened and just keep doing what she's doing.” That starts today with a string of media hits and a North Country rally with Sununu. DESANTIS DESPOILER — A year ago, DeSantis beat Trump in a New Hampshire poll. Now, he’s poised to play spoiler in the state where support for his campaign has tumbled into the single digits in surveys. THE VIEW FROM THE DEMOCRATIC SIDE — A muted Democratic primary contest is also kicking into higher gear — just without President Joe Biden, whose allies are waging a write-in campaign on his behalf (and calling in the Massachusetts cavalry to help). Those behind the write-in effort are using Trump’s victory to encourage independents who want to block him from returning to the White House to scribble down Biden’s name instead of pulling a GOP ballot. Biden’s long-shot rivals, Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) and Marianne Williamson, would disagree. THE MASSACHUSETTS CONNECTION — Pack your bags, it’s time to go knock doors in New Hampshire. At least that’s the plan for Haley supporters in Massachusetts, former MassGOP Chair Jennifer Nassour, who co-chairs Massachusetts Women for Nikki, told Playbook. Those who can’t make it will be working the phones, she said. GOOD TUESDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS . Lest you think all the action is to the north, Gov. Maura Healey’s State of the Commonwealth address is Wednesday. TODAY — Healey , Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll and House Democratic Whip Katherine Clark make a “major new child care affordability announcement” at 10 a.m. in Malden. Healey and Driscoll swear in Elizabeth Dewar to the SJC at noon at the State House. Clark addresses The New England Council at 9 a.m. at the Park Plaza. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu is on GBH’s “Boston Public Radio” at 11 a.m.   JOIN 1/31 FOR A TALK ON THE RACE TO SOLVE ALZHEIMER’S: Breakthrough drugs and treatments are giving new hope for slowing neurodegenerative diseases like Alzheimer’s disease and ALS. But if that progress slows, the societal and economic cost to the U.S. could be high. Join POLITICO, alongside lawmakers, official and experts, on Jan. 31 to discuss a path forward for better collaboration among health systems, industry and government. REGISTER HERE .     MEANWHILE IN NEW HAMPSHIRE TRAIL MARKERS — Nikki Haley flew to New Hampshire last night. Ron DeSantis is making a pit stop in Haley's home of South Carolina. And now-former candidate Vivek Ramaswamy is rallying with Donald Trump . Here's where to find the GOP candidates in New Hampshire today: — Trump rallies at the Atkinson Country Club at 5 p.m. with Ramaswamy. — DeSantis is due at a meet-and-greet at the Claremont Senior Center at 5:30 p.m., hosted by his allied super PAC, Never Back Down, and is slated for a CNN town hall at 9 p.m. — Haley holds a rally at 6 p.m. at the Omni Mount Washington Resort with Gov. Chris Sununu . Republican presidential candidate former UN Ambassador Nikki Haley arrives for a caucus night watch party in West Des Moines, Iowa, Monday, Jan. 15, 2024. (AP Photo/Carolyn Kaster) | AP Don't forget the Democrats: — Rep. Dean Phillips is pouring coffee at the Littleton Diner at 12:30 p.m. and returns for a meet-and-greet there at 4 p.m. He’s also at a Plymouth Democrats meeting at 6:30 p.m. — Marianne Williamson is at the Dover Public Library at 3:30 p.m. Phillips spent the weekend ramping up his attacks on President Joe Biden for skipping the state’s primary, which he and Williamson are competing in even though the Democratic National Committee won’t count the results. Phillips also lowered expectations in the state in which he’s staking his campaign, telling Lisa that finishing in the 20 percent range would be a show of strength. A campaign adviser previously told POLITICO the bar was set around 42 percent. Rep. Dean Phillips (D-Minn.) campaigns in Portsmouth, New Hampshire, 10 days before the state's presidential primary. | Lisa Kashinsky/POLITICO ICYMI — Phillips’ ire for the Biden-backing Democratic establishment also extends to Gov. Maura Healey , who’s campaigned on behalf of the Biden write-in effort. “It is the sad culture of politics," Phillips said when asked last week about Healey's efforts. "When you have people whose focus is self-preservation and ascension to higher offices, they will stay in line … they will do anything necessary, forgo all their principles, even when they know they’re wrong.” A spokesperson for Healey's political arm declined comment. BALLOT BATTLES PRE-HEARING HEARING — The Massachusetts Ballot Law Commission will meet Thursday to discuss whether to hear two challenges seeking to bar Trump from the GOP presidential primary ballot. Marc Salinas is the attorney representing Trump. The Boston Globe’s Matt Stout has more . — “Baker makes his exit from Mass. politics official,” by Bruce Mohl, Gintautas Dumcius and Jennifer Smith, CommonWealth Beacon: “Charlie Baker’s exit from Massachusetts politics is now complete. According to campaign finance records, his gubernatorial campaign account was dissolved on January 4 and so was the super PAC that he helped launch in 2019 to support largely centrist candidates across Massachusetts.” DATELINE BEACON HILL — “Proposal targets 'deep fake' political advertising,” by Christian M. Wade, The Eagle-Tribune: “A proposal filed by state Sen. Barry Finegold, D-Andover, would prohibit anyone running for elected office from distributing deceptive or fraudulent 'synthetic' ads within 90 days of an election in which the candidate or their political party will appear on state or local ballots.”   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS : From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.      MIGRANTS IN MASSACHUSETTS — “Migrants want to work. And employers want to hire them,” by Katie Johnston, The Boston Globe: “Migrants living in at-capacity emergency shelters are trickling into the workforce: packaging cooking oil in Ayer; caring for patients with developmental disabilities in Waltham; gearing up to clean hospital rooms in Salem. But getting to that point has required a massive undertaking.” FROM THE HUB WU SAYS NO TO HARVARD — Boston Mayor Michelle Wu has “absolutely no plans” to throw her hat in the ring for the top job at her alma mater after Claudine Gay ’s abrupt departure from Harvard’s helm. Wu told WCVB’s “On the Record” that she’s “very saddened” to see the “quick and rapid series of missteps that [Gay] took accountability for that got wrapped into a much larger conversation about issues that were beyond what she could control.” NOT A SILVER BULLET — Wu told WCVB that she’ll continue to advocate for legislation that would allow for rent control to move forward on Beacon Hill, where it’s long been stalled and shows no signs of budging. But she also said “rent control isn’t a silver bullet — it doesn’t fix the housing crisis. But it does play a really important role in helping people just hang onto their homes” while the city and state work to increase the number of affordable and public-housing units available. — “Annual MLK breakfast rings with warnings about threats to democracy,” by Barbara Moran, WBUR: “Amid the music, accolades and awards, many speakers commented on ongoing cultural divisions and threats to voting rights as the presidential primaries are set to begin. ‘As we stare down this presidential election year, all signs are that it will take every ounce of our stamina to move forward and not backward,’ Boston Mayor Michelle Wu said.” Rep. Ayanna Pressley also drew on King’s commitment to peace in joining nearly 100 faith leaders in signing a statement calling for a cease-fire in Gaza. And Healey announced new efforts to increase diversity in the state’s contracts by reopening an unspecified number of contracts and swearing in the state’s first Diverse and Small Business Advisory Board for the Supplier Diversity Office. DATELINE D.C. — “John Kerry Bows Out as U.S. Climate Envoy,” by Lisa Friedman, The New York Times: “John Kerry, President Biden’s special envoy for climate, plans to step down by spring, ending a three-year run in a major diplomatic role that was created especially for him and which will face an uncertain future with his departure. … He is widely expected to get involved in the 2024 presidential campaign to help raise awareness of Mr. Biden’s work on climate change.” WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD BE READING — “How Harvard Crimson journalists delivered ‘indispensable’ coverage of the university’s leadership crisis,” by Suevon Lee, WBUR. — “Grubhub agrees to a $3.5 million settlement with Massachusetts for fees charged during the pandemic,” by Steve LeBlanc, The Associated Press. HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Shane Cardillo of Hamilton Lane. HAPPY BELATED — to David O’Brien , who celebrated Saturday; and to Boston Mayor Michelle Wu , who turned 39 on Sunday. We apologize for missing it again, after promising last year that we wouldn’t. Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com .   Follow us on Twitter Lisa Kashinsky @lisakashinsky Kelly Garrity @KellyGarrity3   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters FOLLOW US

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