Friends,
On Friday, the Labor Department’s Bureau of Labor Standards issued its monthly report on jobs — and it was a doozy. Jobs and real wages (wages adjusted for inflation) continue to rise.
So when will Americans start crediting Biden with this great economy?
There’s always a lag time between when the economy turns positive and when voters begin to feel more positive about an administration.
As I said on MSNBC Friday evening, (see clip, below), I believe the tide is turning and Americans will begin to credit Biden with a great economy 3 to 4 months from now, which is time enough for Biden to use that credit to be reelected.
Of course, the upcoming election will also hinge on other issues — Netanyahu’s bloodbath in Gaza, abortion, and immigration, to name a few — but the economy is likely to be the biggest single issue in voters’ minds.
My optimism is based on two surveys that measure how positively people feel about the economy — the index of consumer sentiment (which comes from a survey by the University of Michigan) and the index of consumer confidence (as measured by the Conference Board). The sentiment survey tells us how consumers feel about buying something now. The confidence survey essentially asks how they think they’ll feel about buying in the future.
In election years, both measures correlate highly with whether people vote for incumbent presidents.
When consumer sentiment and confidence are trending downwards (as they did in 2016 and 2020), the incumbent or incumbent’s party loses. When they’re trending upward (as now), the incumbent wins.
Take a look at these charts of consumer sentiment and consumer confidence. Both lag behind the actual economic news on jobs and real wages, but both now show positive trend lines.
Index of consumer confidence:
As I’ve noted before, Trump is benefitting from a bad long-term economic trend — the near stagnation of the wages of hourly workers (most of them white, older, rural, and without college degrees). This trend has been ongoing for over four decades, as the middle class has shrunk. Hence, a large number of people have become susceptible to a demagogue wielding anger and vengeance.
But as the election approaches, short-term positive feelings about the economy will probably overtake this longer-term sullenness. Which is why I continue to be nauseously optimistic.
/ @briantylercohenespanol
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