POLITICO Nightly: Is Putin bluffing?

By Gabriel Gavin Presented by Citi Russia's President Vladimir Putin communicates with patients of the Children's Clinical Center during a visit on August 21. | Pool photo by Mikhail Tereshchenko RED LINE — For two years, Poltava had been a relative safe haven. More than a hundred miles from the front lines, the leafy Ukrainian city had been spared much of the destruction being wrought on communities closer to the fighting — until a Russian missile slammed into a hospital last week, killing at least 58 people and injuring hundreds more. Now, days on from one of the deadliest strikes since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, we could be witnessing an inflection point: Moscow is threatening the West with total war if it allows Ukraine to hit back. With speculation growing that the U.S. could relax a ban on Western weapons being used to strike targets inside Russia, President Vladimir Putin warned the move “will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting Russia.” Kyiv has for months wanted the U.S. to lift a ban on using donated missiles to take out targets across the border — restrictions which Washington had imposed in an apparent effort to avoid ‘escalation,’ such as Moscow resorting to using nuclear weapons or more directly confronting the West. Earlier this week, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Washington to give the green light for cross-border missile strikes, President Joe Biden said that officials were “working that out right now.” On a visit to Ukraine today, Estonian President Alar Kalis branded the rules “artificial and pointless,” when Iran and North Korea are supplying weapons to the Kremlin without restrictions. Britain’s new prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, also used a visit to the U.S. to raise the issue, with London having previously sought permission for Ukraine to use its powerful Storm Shadow rockets inside Russia — a move the White House is yet to support. A change in policy could transform Kyiv’s capabilities. Jade McGlynn, a conflict researcher at King’s College London, told Nightly that letting Ukraine strike Russian bases “would make it a much fairer fight by allowing them to stop the shooter, rather than just catch the bullet,” ensuring launch sites for Russian missiles, like the one that killed so many innocent people in Poltava, could be targeted. However, the Biden administration isn’t yet fully on board. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has cast doubt on the plan, insisting that no “one capacity is going to be decisive” in the war, and that Ukraine has been able to achieve results with other hardware like drones. But, with allies piling on the pressure and atrocities like the Poltava strike making headlines all too often, pressure is growing to let Ukraine do what it wants with its weapons. “Russia is a nuclear power, and it would be irresponsible to totally ignore that,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at Washington’s hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former Republican Senate advisor. “But Putin has made threats along these lines before and his consistent strategy is to play into fears of escalation as a means to deprive Kyiv of the weapons and support it needs.” “Since February 24, 2022, we’ve seen over and over again the dynamic where Zelenskyy says I need this or that system and then we see a ‘no’ from the Biden administration, then we see a ‘maybe,’ then a ‘yes.’ And, as time passes, all that happens is Ukrainians die, Russia advances.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin .   What'd I Miss? — Bipartisan group of lawmakers signs pledge to certify 2024 election results: More than 30 House members, including a half-dozen Republicans, have signed a bipartisan pledge to uphold the results of the 2024 election amid an increased focus on Congress’ role in certifying the tally next January. A pair of House centrists, Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.), have worked for months to organize what they’re calling a “unity commitment” — an agreement to “safeguard the fairness and integrity” of this fall’s presidential election. Five other Republicans also signed on: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.). — RT running covert military supply operation for Russian forces, State Dept. says: The State Department today accused RT of having transformed from a state-backed propaganda outlet into a sophisticated arm of Russian intelligence , secretly operating a vast military procurement network to supply Russian forces in Ukraine. RT, formerly Russia Today, has been pulling this off by using a large online crowdfunding platform, promoted through social media, to buy military equipment and then channel it to Russian units in Ukraine, according to the State Department. The administration said the operations were administered by RT deputy editor-in-chief and head of international broadcasting for Sputnik Anton Anisimov and had avoided detection by importing small orders of weaponry and supplies. — Amid mounting legal woes, NYC mayor faces another progressive challenger: State Sen. Jessica Ramos is entering the race for mayor of New York — the latest Democratic challenger to take on a weakened Eric Adams next year. Ramos, a progressive Queens politician, has been among the most outspoken critics of the embattled mayor as his inner circle is embroiled in federal investigations. But what she boasts in media and political skill she lacks in campaign advantage: She has low name recognition and no money in her city account. Other contenders — Comptroller Brad Lander and his predecessor, Scott Stringer — have already won citywide races and have been raising donations for months. Nightly Road to 2024 Pope Francis holds a news conference aboard the papal plane today. | Pool photo by Guglielmo Mangiapane PAPAL NON-BLESSING — Pope Francis today slammed both U.S. presidential candidates for what he called anti-life policies on abortion and migration , and he advised American Catholics to choose who they think is the “lesser evil” in the upcoming U.S. elections. “Both are against life, be it the one who kicks out migrants, or be it the one who kills babies,″ Francis said. The Argentine Jesuit was asked to provide counsel to American Catholic voters during an airborne news conference while he flew back to Rome from his four-nation tour through Asia. Francis stressed that he is not an American and would not be voting. Neither Republican candidate Donald Trump nor the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, was mentioned by name. But Francis nevertheless expressed himself in stark terms when asked to weigh in on their positions on two hot-button issues in the U.S. election — abortion and migration — that are also of major concern to the Catholic Church. LOOMER LOOMING — Donald Trump refused today to weigh in on recent racist and conspiratorial comments from right-wing provocateur Laura Loomer , who traveled with him earlier this week to the debate and several 9/11 memorial events. “Laura’s been a supporter of mine,” Trump told reporters at a press conference near Los Angeles, where he was pressed on concerns from Republican allies about his ongoing association with Loomer. “I don’t control Laura,” Trump said. “I can’t tell Laura what to do. She’s a supporter.” TRUMP VS. CALIFORNIA — Former President Donald Trump threatened to withhold federal disaster response funding from California today over Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s position on water deliveries to farmers. Speaking to reporters from a golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes today, Trump said he would strong-arm California’s governor into agreeing to send more water from California’s lush north to farm fields in its drier south. Trump has long threatened to withhold disaster money from California as punishment for its environmental policies. He has also long used California’s water wars as a way to appeal to agricultural interests in the Central Valley, who depend on deliveries from the State Water Project and the federally run Central Valley Project. AROUND THE WORLD BEHIND CLOSED DOORS — North Korea offered a rare glimpse into a secretive facility to produce weapons-grade uranium as state media reported today that leader Kim Jong Un visited the area and called for stronger efforts to “exponentially” increase its number of nuclear weapons, according to The Associated Press. It’s unclear whether the site is at North Korea’s main Yongbyon nuclear complex, but it’s the North’s first disclosure of a uranium-enrichment facility since it showed one at Yongbyon to visiting American scholars in 2010. While the latest unveiling is likely an attempt to apply more pressure on the U.S. and its allies, the images released by North Korean media of the area could provide outsiders with a valuable source of information for estimating the amount of nuclear ingredients that North Korea has produced. During a visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute and the facility producing weapons-grade nuclear materials, Kim expressed “great satisfaction repeatedly over the wonderful technical force of the nuclear power field” held by North Korea, the official Korean Central News Agency reported. KCNA said Kim went around the control room of the uranium enrichment facility and a construction site that would expand its capacity for producing nuclear weapons. North Korean state media photos showed Kim being briefed by scientists while walking along long lines of centrifuges. KCNA didn’t say when Kim visited the facilities or where they are located.     Nightly Number 33,000 The number of Boeing factory workers who went on strike today after they overwhelmingly rejected a proposed contract that would have raised their wages by 25 percent over four years. The strike will not disrupt airline flights anytime soon, but it is expected to shut down production of Boeing’s best-selling jetliners. RADAR SWEEP LOSING MY EDGE — In his first two years as CEO of Nike, beginning in 2020, John Donahoe had business booming. Even in the midst of Covid, the company’s stock price was rising as Donahoe rereleased old shoes with modern tweaks that became hits. But as he chased increasingly more profits, releasing more shoes in larger batches, something happened. Nike ceased to be cool . In attempts to flood the market to satisfy demand, the company lost its edge — and Donahoe, according to reports, lost the confidence of the workplace. Now, he’s insisting on the need for layoffs. How’d it all go so wrong? Kim Bhasin and Lily Meier report for Bloomberg Businessweek. Parting Image On this date in 1971: Shotgun carrying New York State troopers and prison guards mill outside Attica State Prison in New York after a riot by rebelling prisoners was put down. The riot was the deadliest in prison uprising history; of the 43 men who died (33 prisoners and 10 guards/prison employees), all but one guard and three inmates were killed when law enforcement violently ended the riot. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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(Un)Truth or Consequences Dems reaping rewards of Trump’s performance Dan Rather and Team Steady Sep 13 Credit: Getty Images Add another check to the things-I’ve-never-seen-in-a-presidential-election column. Normally, presidential debates are no more than live, relatively uninteresting interviews with the candidates. But this cycle, the first debate caused a sitting president to withdraw from the race, and the second reminded 67 million viewers that a certain Republican is simply not fit to hold the office. Will Trump’s (under) performance be enough to send his poll numbers sliding and eventually lead to his defeat at the polls? We have to fall back on the old “too soon to tell” adage, but consequences abound from this debate.   FUNDRAISING It is not unusual for a campaign to push for donations after a good debate performance. What is unusual is the amount the Harris/Walz campaign has raised. In the first 24 hours, it took in $47 million from 600,000 people. Both numbers are extraordinary. This haul will only widen the fundraising gap with the Trump/Vance campaign. Coming into September, Harris had $404 million cash on hand, while Trump had $295 million. Every penny counts in what will be a $2+ billion election, the most expensive ever. VIRALITY  For most of my long career covering presidential politics, once a debate was over, that pretty much was it. You could read about it or maybe see a few clips on television a day or two after. But little of anything beyond that. Now, the debates — and just about everything else — live in perpetuity on social media. Memes, TikTok videos, and bits by late-night hosts are being viewed and shared by millions of people. Trump’s most cringeworthy moments will never die. These viral videos are quick and engaging by design, with no context — not that you can put “pet eating” into context. Trump’s rambling incoherence is tailor-made for such things.  NO MORE DEBATES After the debate, Harris said that she and Trump owe it to the electorate to debate again. No surprise, he disagreed. Trump has unequivocally stated, in all caps, on social media, “There will be no third debate.” The word unequivocally and Trump do not usually go hand in hand, so he might mean it, or it could be the opening salvo in a negotiation for another debate.  Trump has never met a camera he didn’t want to get in front of, so his refusal to debate again is telling. Harris would likely benefit from another debate since she is still working to tell her story and crystalize her policies.  TAYLOR SWIFT Normally when a politician receives an endorsement from a celebrity, it’s a nice gesture, but that and $5 will get you a coffee at Starbucks. As we have said, this election is the opposite of normal. The endorsement from pop superstar Taylor Swift was more than a gesture. Her backing of the Harris/Walz ticket came with a request from Swift to her 283 million Instagram followers to be sure and register to vote, with a link to the government website vote.gov. Twenty-four hours after the endorsement, more than 405,000 people had visited the site. It usually gets about 30,000 hits a day. In a race this close, that many potential new voters, in the right places, could nudge the needle. At the MTV Video Music Awards the night after the debate, Swift again made a voter registration pitch, this one live during an acceptance speech, to a demographic Harris badly needs: young people.  FOCUSING ON THE WRONG THING A seemingly desperate Donald Trump announced yesterday the launch of “World Liberty Financial,” a crypto-currency platform. He said he will give a “state of crypto” address on X.  Really? Now? Seems like he has more important tacos to make. Perhaps that’s the point. He can’t focus on things that actually matter to the voting public, so he is trying to distract them with things that make no difference to most Americans, but make him seem to be a big-shot businessman. This comes on the heels of his media company losing billions in value when the stock tanked after the debate. LIES CAN BE HARMFUL Certainly an unintended consequence of the debate is what has happened in Springfield, Ohio, a city made infamous by Trump’s dangerous lies about Haitian immigrants eating residents’ pets. In the debate’s wake, a bomb threat caused the evacuation of two elementary schools and the closure of a middle school.  The mayor of Springfield believes the threat was a direct result of the baseless claims made first by vice presidential candidate JD Vance and repeated on the debate stage by Trump.  In a shockingly candid op-ed in Wednesday’s Wall Street Journal, Karl Rove, the Republican campaign strategist, had nothing good to say about Trump’s performance. “But there’s no putting lipstick on this pig,” he wrote. “Mr. Trump was crushed by a woman he previously dismissed as ‘dumb as a rock.’ Which raises the question: What does that make him?” It makes him vulnerable. Another unintended consequence. And it becomes even harder to predict where this race is headed. If you value independent journalism that provides critical information to protect our democracy, please consider upgrading to become a supporting member. It allows me to keep Steady sustainable and free for those who cannot afford it, especially in an election season when we need everyone to see it. Thank you. No matter how you subscribe, I thank you for reading. Stay Steady, Dan

COMMON DREAMS: Top News: Trump Loyalists Have 'Infiltrated' Election Boards in Key States

 

Friday, September 13, 2024 ■ Today's Top News  Sanders Urges DOJ Probe Into Israeli Killing of American Activist Ayşenur Eygi "The U.S. cannot continue to turn a blind eye to the illegal actions of the extremist Israeli government," the senator said. By Brett Wilkins Leak at First CO2 Injection Site in US Exposes Dangerous Folly of Carbon Capture "This incident puts an exclamation point on concerns communities across the country have been raising for years about the dangers the CCS industry poses to public safety and drinking water," said one climate group. By Jake Johnson 'Blood Libel': Critics Say Trump-Vance Racist Attacks Stoking Chaos in Springfield, Ohio "Trump and Vance are trying to start a race riot," said one New York Times columnist. By Julia Conley Analysis Shows Trump Loyalists Have 'Infiltrated' Election Boards in Key States "With 102 deniers on election boards in the swing states, the potential for creating chaos is enormous." By Edward Carver UN Chief Says US Must Do More to 'Force Israel to Stop' Gaza Onslaught However, United Nations Secretary-General António Guterres added, "I know the American political life sufficiently to know that it will not happen." By Brett Wilkins 'We Will Not Arrest Him': UN Ambassador Says US Would Flout ICC Warrant Against Netanyahu "I think you know the answer," Linda Thomas-Greenfield said in a dismissive response to a question about whether the U.S. would abide by an ICC arrest warrant against the Israeli prime minister. By Jake Johnson

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■ Opinion Lies About Haitians Reflect America's Racist Imperialism The ‘Haitians eat pets’ tale is the latest in a long line of anti-Haitian claims that goes back to the nation's slave revolt nearly 200 years ago—a struggle against slavery, colonialism, and white supremacy. By Yves Engler Project 2025 Wants to Put a Dagger in the Heart of the American Dream This dangerous, sweeping takeover of a society that’s made huge strides toward equality over many decades threatens to take us back to a “Gilded Age,” where only the very wealthiest white families and corporations benefit from government policy. By Karen Dolan The Violence Against Women Act Turns 30 Today—But Are We Still Failing Survivors? Last week, Rebecca Cheptegei's children watched their mother burn right before their eyes. This type of horror happens in the United States, too. excerpt:  As we commemorate the 30th anniversary of the Violence Against Women Act (VAWA) this September 13, the horrific death of Olympic runner Rebecca Cheptegei, who was set on fire by her ex-boyfriend just last week, reminds us that the fight against domestic violence is far from over. While domestic violence is sometimes portrayed as a scourge relegated to developing countries, it remains a significant and deeply troubling issue right here in the U.S., too, affecting individuals and families across all communities, regardless of socioeconomic status. Each day, three women die in the United States because of domestic violence; a woman is beaten by an intimate partner every 9 minutes; and 1 in 4 women will experience severe intimate partner violence in their lifetime. Yet headlines still manage to get their stories wrong and movies like the recent blockbuster It Ends with Us do a disservice to correctly capturing the experience of victims. The Violence Against Women Act, when it was passed in 1994, was a landmark step in addressing this issue. But the challenges that survivors face have changed in the last thirty years - while the paltry protections offered them have largely remained stagnant. We have a long way to go in supporting women, particularly in terms of enforcement and support for survivors. On any given day in the United States, 13,335 requests for victim services go unmet due to a lack of funding. Of those unmet requests, 54% are for safe housing. Intimate partner violence has worsened in the aftermath of the COVID-19 pandemic, with calls to domestic violence hotlines spiking. Affordable and safe housing is one of the biggest barriers that survivors face when leaving an abuser; in fact, domestic violence is one of the main causes of homelessness for women and children - 63% of homeless women have been victims of domestic violence. In 2023, the federal government gave out $43.1 million in grants for transitional housing for domestic violence victims – but this is pennies compared with other federal grants, such as the $7.5 billion currently allotted for electric car charging stations. Having an immediate place to live is a matter of life and death for many victims. More funding, particularly for shelters and permanent affordable housing for victims and their children, is absolutely essential in 2024. By Dale Margolin Cecka

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