POLITICO Nightly: Is Putin bluffing?

By Gabriel Gavin Presented by Citi Russia's President Vladimir Putin communicates with patients of the Children's Clinical Center during a visit on August 21. | Pool photo by Mikhail Tereshchenko RED LINE — For two years, Poltava had been a relative safe haven. More than a hundred miles from the front lines, the leafy Ukrainian city had been spared much of the destruction being wrought on communities closer to the fighting — until a Russian missile slammed into a hospital last week, killing at least 58 people and injuring hundreds more. Now, days on from one of the deadliest strikes since Russia invaded Ukraine in February 2022, we could be witnessing an inflection point: Moscow is threatening the West with total war if it allows Ukraine to hit back. With speculation growing that the U.S. could relax a ban on Western weapons being used to strike targets inside Russia, President Vladimir Putin warned the move “will mean that NATO countries, the United States, and European countries are fighting Russia.” Kyiv has for months wanted the U.S. to lift a ban on using donated missiles to take out targets across the border — restrictions which Washington had imposed in an apparent effort to avoid ‘escalation,’ such as Moscow resorting to using nuclear weapons or more directly confronting the West. Earlier this week, after Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy urged Washington to give the green light for cross-border missile strikes, President Joe Biden said that officials were “working that out right now.” On a visit to Ukraine today, Estonian President Alar Kalis branded the rules “artificial and pointless,” when Iran and North Korea are supplying weapons to the Kremlin without restrictions. Britain’s new prime minister, Sir Keir Starmer, also used a visit to the U.S. to raise the issue, with London having previously sought permission for Ukraine to use its powerful Storm Shadow rockets inside Russia — a move the White House is yet to support. A change in policy could transform Kyiv’s capabilities. Jade McGlynn, a conflict researcher at King’s College London, told Nightly that letting Ukraine strike Russian bases “would make it a much fairer fight by allowing them to stop the shooter, rather than just catch the bullet,” ensuring launch sites for Russian missiles, like the one that killed so many innocent people in Poltava, could be targeted. However, the Biden administration isn’t yet fully on board. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin has cast doubt on the plan, insisting that no “one capacity is going to be decisive” in the war, and that Ukraine has been able to achieve results with other hardware like drones. But, with allies piling on the pressure and atrocities like the Poltava strike making headlines all too often, pressure is growing to let Ukraine do what it wants with its weapons. “Russia is a nuclear power, and it would be irresponsible to totally ignore that,” said Bradley Bowman, senior director of the Center on Military and Political Power at Washington’s hawkish Foundation for Defense of Democracies and a former Republican Senate advisor. “But Putin has made threats along these lines before and his consistent strategy is to play into fears of escalation as a means to deprive Kyiv of the weapons and support it needs.” “Since February 24, 2022, we’ve seen over and over again the dynamic where Zelenskyy says I need this or that system and then we see a ‘no’ from the Biden administration, then we see a ‘maybe,’ then a ‘yes.’ And, as time passes, all that happens is Ukrainians die, Russia advances.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin .   What'd I Miss? — Bipartisan group of lawmakers signs pledge to certify 2024 election results: More than 30 House members, including a half-dozen Republicans, have signed a bipartisan pledge to uphold the results of the 2024 election amid an increased focus on Congress’ role in certifying the tally next January. A pair of House centrists, Reps. Josh Gottheimer (D-N.J.) and Don Bacon (R-Neb.), have worked for months to organize what they’re calling a “unity commitment” — an agreement to “safeguard the fairness and integrity” of this fall’s presidential election. Five other Republicans also signed on: Reps. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-Pa.), Mike Lawler (R-N.Y.), Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-Ore.), Nick LaLota (R-N.Y.) and Anthony D’Esposito (R-N.Y.). — RT running covert military supply operation for Russian forces, State Dept. says: The State Department today accused RT of having transformed from a state-backed propaganda outlet into a sophisticated arm of Russian intelligence , secretly operating a vast military procurement network to supply Russian forces in Ukraine. RT, formerly Russia Today, has been pulling this off by using a large online crowdfunding platform, promoted through social media, to buy military equipment and then channel it to Russian units in Ukraine, according to the State Department. The administration said the operations were administered by RT deputy editor-in-chief and head of international broadcasting for Sputnik Anton Anisimov and had avoided detection by importing small orders of weaponry and supplies. — Amid mounting legal woes, NYC mayor faces another progressive challenger: State Sen. Jessica Ramos is entering the race for mayor of New York — the latest Democratic challenger to take on a weakened Eric Adams next year. Ramos, a progressive Queens politician, has been among the most outspoken critics of the embattled mayor as his inner circle is embroiled in federal investigations. But what she boasts in media and political skill she lacks in campaign advantage: She has low name recognition and no money in her city account. Other contenders — Comptroller Brad Lander and his predecessor, Scott Stringer — have already won citywide races and have been raising donations for months. Nightly Road to 2024 Pope Francis holds a news conference aboard the papal plane today. | Pool photo by Guglielmo Mangiapane PAPAL NON-BLESSING — Pope Francis today slammed both U.S. presidential candidates for what he called anti-life policies on abortion and migration , and he advised American Catholics to choose who they think is the “lesser evil” in the upcoming U.S. elections. “Both are against life, be it the one who kicks out migrants, or be it the one who kills babies,″ Francis said. The Argentine Jesuit was asked to provide counsel to American Catholic voters during an airborne news conference while he flew back to Rome from his four-nation tour through Asia. Francis stressed that he is not an American and would not be voting. Neither Republican candidate Donald Trump nor the Democratic candidate, Kamala Harris, was mentioned by name. But Francis nevertheless expressed himself in stark terms when asked to weigh in on their positions on two hot-button issues in the U.S. election — abortion and migration — that are also of major concern to the Catholic Church. LOOMER LOOMING — Donald Trump refused today to weigh in on recent racist and conspiratorial comments from right-wing provocateur Laura Loomer , who traveled with him earlier this week to the debate and several 9/11 memorial events. “Laura’s been a supporter of mine,” Trump told reporters at a press conference near Los Angeles, where he was pressed on concerns from Republican allies about his ongoing association with Loomer. “I don’t control Laura,” Trump said. “I can’t tell Laura what to do. She’s a supporter.” TRUMP VS. CALIFORNIA — Former President Donald Trump threatened to withhold federal disaster response funding from California today over Democratic Gov. Gavin Newsom’s position on water deliveries to farmers. Speaking to reporters from a golf course in Rancho Palos Verdes today, Trump said he would strong-arm California’s governor into agreeing to send more water from California’s lush north to farm fields in its drier south. Trump has long threatened to withhold disaster money from California as punishment for its environmental policies. He has also long used California’s water wars as a way to appeal to agricultural interests in the Central Valley, who depend on deliveries from the State Water Project and the federally run Central Valley Project. AROUND THE WORLD BEHIND CLOSED DOORS — North Korea offered a rare glimpse into a secretive facility to produce weapons-grade uranium as state media reported today that leader Kim Jong Un visited the area and called for stronger efforts to “exponentially” increase its number of nuclear weapons, according to The Associated Press. It’s unclear whether the site is at North Korea’s main Yongbyon nuclear complex, but it’s the North’s first disclosure of a uranium-enrichment facility since it showed one at Yongbyon to visiting American scholars in 2010. While the latest unveiling is likely an attempt to apply more pressure on the U.S. and its allies, the images released by North Korean media of the area could provide outsiders with a valuable source of information for estimating the amount of nuclear ingredients that North Korea has produced. During a visit to the Nuclear Weapons Institute and the facility producing weapons-grade nuclear materials, Kim expressed “great satisfaction repeatedly over the wonderful technical force of the nuclear power field” held by North Korea, the official Korean Central News Agency reported. KCNA said Kim went around the control room of the uranium enrichment facility and a construction site that would expand its capacity for producing nuclear weapons. North Korean state media photos showed Kim being briefed by scientists while walking along long lines of centrifuges. KCNA didn’t say when Kim visited the facilities or where they are located.     Nightly Number 33,000 The number of Boeing factory workers who went on strike today after they overwhelmingly rejected a proposed contract that would have raised their wages by 25 percent over four years. The strike will not disrupt airline flights anytime soon, but it is expected to shut down production of Boeing’s best-selling jetliners. RADAR SWEEP LOSING MY EDGE — In his first two years as CEO of Nike, beginning in 2020, John Donahoe had business booming. Even in the midst of Covid, the company’s stock price was rising as Donahoe rereleased old shoes with modern tweaks that became hits. But as he chased increasingly more profits, releasing more shoes in larger batches, something happened. Nike ceased to be cool . In attempts to flood the market to satisfy demand, the company lost its edge — and Donahoe, according to reports, lost the confidence of the workplace. Now, he’s insisting on the need for layoffs. How’d it all go so wrong? Kim Bhasin and Lily Meier report for Bloomberg Businessweek. Parting Image On this date in 1971: Shotgun carrying New York State troopers and prison guards mill outside Attica State Prison in New York after a riot by rebelling prisoners was put down. The riot was the deadliest in prison uprising history; of the 43 men who died (33 prisoners and 10 guards/prison employees), all but one guard and three inmates were killed when law enforcement violently ended the riot. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

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