Showing posts with label EUROPE. Show all posts
Showing posts with label EUROPE. Show all posts

Tuesday, December 10, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: The most influential person in Europe


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By Aitor Hernández-Morales

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni delivers a national statement.

Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni delivers a statement at the UNFCCC COP29 Climate Conference on Nov. 13, 2024, in Baku, Azerbaijan. | Sean Gallup/Getty Images


SEISMIC SHIFT — POLITICO Europe’s annual ranking of the most influential people in Europe is out today and the list is marked by a conspicuous absence. The familiar faces who typically dominate the power corridors — like the French president or German chancellor — didn’t make the cut.

In a continent reeling from economic malaise, wars at its doorstep, the resurgence of the far right and a looming cold shoulder from its longtime ally in Washington, many of Europe’s traditional power players find themselves sidelined. Others — often from unexpected or unconventional quarters — are stepping in to fill the void.

When the United States inaugurates Donald Trump again in January, he’ll be faced with a fragmented Europe that looks very different from the last time he took office in 2017, when the continent was still coming to terms with the consequences of Brexit. Trump will have to turn his attention to shifting power centers in 2025.

The list of those poised to shape European politics and policy in the year ahead is divided into three categories: Doers (those most adept at imposing their will), Disrupters (those shaking up the status quo), and Dreamers (whose bold ideas are driving the conversation). Together, the 28 power players in those categories are revealing.

They show the eastward tilt of Europe’s center of gravity. Four Poles made this list, underscoring Warsaw’s growing relevance. Prime Minister Donald Tusk, last year’s top-ranked figure, has helped shepherd Poland back into the political mainstream. The country’s rise has been further buoyed by a healthy domestic economy and a new European focus on defense and security that seems especially prescient following the reelection of Trump. Sharing a border with Ukraine and Russian ally Belarus, Poland and Tusk have been among Ukraine’s staunchest supporters since 2022 — a stance seemingly not shared by the incoming Trump administration. Tusk said today that he hopes peace talks will begin this winter, and that Warsaw will be heavily involved in any discussions of peace.

The list captures another continental trend: the ascent of right-wing populists and ultranationalist figures. These leaders, who have undermined civic rights and targeted minorities and asylum-seekers, have gained traction as centrist leaders flounder. Their presence on this year’s ranking is a stark warning: When traditional politicians fail to provide credible alternatives, populism fills the void.

The leader ranked as the most powerful person in Europe this year might come as a surprise — Giorgia Meloni, prime minister of Italy .

In less than a decade, the leader of the right-wing Brothers of Italy party has gone from being dismissed as an ultranationalist kook to being elected prime minister and establishing herself as a figure with whom Brussels, and now Washington, can do business.

Even as she has tacked to the center, Meloni has been on the forefront of a wave that is dragging European politics toward the far right. Indeed, since her election in 2022, the Italian prime minister has introduced policies on issues like migration and LGBTQ+ rights that would once have drawn condemnation from Brussels. Instead, the reaction from European Union leaders has ranged from indifference to approval, with many accepting Meloni as the palatable representative of the ever-more-radical zeitgeist blossoming on both sides of the Atlantic.

You can read more about Meloni and the most influential people in Europe here , and the methodology behind this snapshot of power.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ahernandez@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @aitorehm .

 

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What'd I Miss?

— McConnell falls and sprains wrist but has been ‘cleared to resume his schedule’: Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell tripped and fell as he was leaving a Senate GOP lunch today, cutting his face and spraining his wrist, according to a spokesperson for the Kentucky Republican. “He has been cleared to resume his schedule,” the spokesperson added. McConnell walked out of the meeting himself alongside Sen. John Barrasso (R-Wyo.) and was attended by medical personnel in his office. He did not attend the weekly Senate GOP press conference, which he typically leads.

— House task force releases final report on Trump Pennsylvania assassination attempt: The July 13 attempted assassination of Donald Trump was “preventable and should not have happened,” according to a final report from a House task force investigating the two attempts during this year’s presidential campaign. “The various failures in planning, execution, and leadership on and before July 13, 2024, and the preexisting conditions that undermined the effectiveness of the human and material assets deployed that day, coalesced to create an environment in which the former President — and everyone at the campaign event — were exposed to grave danger,” the House panel said in its report.

FALSIFICATION OF BUSINESS RECORDS CASE!

— Manhattan DA urges judge not to toss out guilty verdict in Trump hush money case: Manhattan District Attorney Alvin Bragg says Donald Trump’s imminent return to the presidency is not a reason to throw out the 34-count conviction that jurors delivered in the hush money case earlier this year. Bragg conceded in a court filing that Trump cannot be sentenced while he is president. But he said Justice Juan Merchan has a variety of options to put the case on hold during Trump’s second term — and then issue a sentence after he leaves office in January 2029.

 

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THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION

NEW BLOOD — President-elect Donald Trump is considering replacing Federal Trade Commission Chair Lina Khan with Andrew Ferguson .

Trump has not made a final decision and is set to meet with Ferguson this afternoon, according to a person familiar with the meeting who was granted anonymity to discuss the potential nomination. A decision could come soon.

If selected, Ferguson won’t need Senate confirmation since he is already on the commission. Ferguson, who did not immediately respond to a request for comment, is well-known in Republican circles. He previously did stints as chief counsel for Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-S.C.), and was the former solicitor general for Virginia. Ferguson was also a senior special counsel for incoming Senate Judiciary Committee Chair Chuck Grassley (R-Iowa).

INTERNAL DISPUTE — The fight over the heart of Donald Trump’s sprawling legislative agenda is publicly pitting the House GOP’s top tax writer against pretty much everyone else .

House Ways and Means Chair Jason Smith, a close Trump ally who is playing a lead role in drafting potential tax cuts, is facing off against incoming Senate Majority Leader John Thune over what should take priority once Republicans take back power next year. Smith wants to take one big swing at passing conservative priorities including changes to tax, border and energy policy.

Thune, backed by incoming Budget Chair Lindsey Graham and incoming White House deputy chief of staff for policy Stephen Miller, among others, is trying to rally the party behind a two-step plan in which tax fights would be resolved at the end so they don’t hold up other items on the GOP’s wish list.

JUDGE AND JURY — Robert F. Kennedy Jr. is the latest Donald Trump Cabinet pick facing trouble in the Senate . At least three closely watched senators are noncommittal about confirming the vaccine critic, who’s being considered to lead the Department of Health and Human Services. Those include swing votes like Sens. Susan Collins of Maine and Lisa Murkowski of Alaska, as well as Sen. Bill Cassidy of Louisiana, a physician who will chair a committee that could host confirmation hearings for Kennedy.

Kennedy can afford to lose only three Republicans during his confirmation if all Senate Democrats vote against him. This group of senators closely resembles those who weren’t sold on former Rep. Matt Gaetz for attorney general or have questioned defense secretary pick Pete Hegseth.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

French President Emmanuel Macron attends a military ceremony Nov. 5, 2024, in Paris.

French President Emmanuel Macron attends a military ceremony Nov. 5, 2024, in Paris. | Michel Euler, Pool via AP

READY TO GO — If the rebel forces that overthrew Syria’s regime start fighting among themselves, Qatar may step in to mediate , a top official indicated today.

“We never say no,” Qatar Ministry of Foreign Affairs spokesperson Majed Al-Ansari said in an interview with POLITICO in his office in Doha when asked about the possibility.

The toppling of dictator Bashar al-Assad last weekend has brought a wave of joy for the long suffering people of Syria. But there are fears, especially among neighboring states, that the factions that pushed out Assad in a lightning offensive could start battling each other for power, leading to new violence.

Al-Ansari confirmed that Qatari officials are already in contact with groups in Syria, though he declined to name which ones. “We are in touch with all the relevant parties on the ground,” he said. His comments come after Reuters reported Monday that Qatar is in touch with the leading rebel group, Hayat Tahrir al-Sham.

Qatar, an energy-rich Gulf Arab country, has a long history of acting as a go-between for feuding parties, including Israel and Hamas as they fight in Gaza. Serving as an intermediary in Syria could make Qatar an even more important partner for the United States, which often turns to it for help in dealing with adversaries.

THE NEXT 48 — French President Emmanuel Macron is looking to name a new prime minister in the next 48 hours , he said at a gathering with leaders from across the political spectrum this afternoon.

Lawmakers from the Greens and the conservative Les Républicains confirmed that Macron shared his self-imposed deadline during today’s meeting at the Elysée palace, which the president called as part of an effort to end the political crisis following Prime Minister Michel Barnier’s ouster on Wednesday.

It is unclear who would succeed Barnier. Several candidates have been floated in French media, among them former Justice Minister François Bayrou and current Defense Minister Sébastien Lecornu.

 

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Nightly Number

MUST READ! WIN FOR CONSUMERS!

$25 billion

The size of a pending merger between the grocery chains Kroger and Albertsons that a federal court blocked today, siding with the U.S. Federal Trade Commission in a victory for the Biden administration.

RADAR SWEEP

RAGE REVENUE — Creators are learning that more controversy equals more dollars . Winta Zesu, a 24-year-old social media influencer, has made $150,000 off posting alone — and she does so by purposefully seeking “rage bait”. Her method consists of “getting a lot of hate,” playing up being a New York City model whose biggest problem is being too pretty. Zesu is among a growing number of creators who spend their time producing videos, memes, and writing posts that orchestrate a sea of controversy for millions of shares and likes. For the BBC, Sam Gruet and Megan Lawton, explain how rage bait takes on many forms from outrageous food recipes, celebrity gossip, and even politics.

Parting Image
Novelist Saul Bellow laughs as his wife, Alexandra adjusts his tie during ball at Stockholm's City Hall, in honor of Nobel Prize winners on Friday evening, Dec. 10, 1976. Bellow was one of seven Americans, who collected all five of the year's Nobel prizes. Bellow won the Nobel prize for literature.

On this date in 1976: Novelist Saul Bellow laughs as his wife Alexandra adjusts his tie at a gala at Stockholm's City Hall in honor of Nobel Prize winners. Bellow won the Nobel Prize in literature.  | AP


 

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Thursday, June 6, 2024

POLITICO Nightly: What Mexico’s new president means for the U.S.


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BY RACHEL SHIN

Presented by Citi

Claudia Sheinbaum celebrates following the results of the general election in Mexico at Zocalo Square in Mexico City.

Claudia Sheinbaum celebrates following the results of the general election in Mexico at Zocalo Square in Mexico City. | Carl de Souza/AFP via Getty Images

MEET LA DOCTORA — America’s closest partner — on trade, migration, energy and more — has made history by electing its first woman as president. Now the U.S. is watching Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum with one question in mind: Will she be a facsimile of her predecessor or blaze her own path?

Sheinbaum served nearly five years as mayor of Mexico City, resigning in 2023 to seek the presidential nomination. Before entering politics, she was an environmental engineer, worked on a UN panel of climate scientists, and received the nickname “la Doctora” for her stellar scientific credentials. Sheinbaum’s landslide victory was propelled by the endorsement of Mexico’s current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), her political mentor and the wildly popular founder of the country’s dominant, populist MORENA party (Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional). She’s promised to follow many of his precedents, including cooperating with Washington on reducing migrant border crossing, but it’s not yet clear whether she’ll diverge from him on key issues highly relevant to the U.S. including gang violence, energy and international investment.

To understand the significance of Sheinbaum’s election for U.S.-Mexico relations, Nightly spoke with Lila Abed, the director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and a columnist for El Heraldo de México and Opinión51. We discussed how Sheinbaum’s election fits into the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship, and what may be on the horizon for the U.S.’s top trade partner.

This interview has been edited for length and clarity.

What are the key differences between AMLO and Sheinbaum, the former president’s hand-picked successor? What changes can the U.S. expect? 

Security cooperation between Mexico and the United States under the AMLO administration really deteriorated. There’s going to unfortunately need to be a rebuilding of mutual trust between U.S. and Mexico’s security agencies. From speaking to folks close to Claudia’s team, there really is an incentive to restart the relationship with the United States in terms of security cooperation. Sheinbaum, at least in her political platform, has signaled stark differences, one being that she wants to create a national intelligence agency that can better gather intelligence and information, that coordinates all levels of federal, state and municipal level in terms of security cooperation. I think this will allow the United States and Mexico to better exchange intelligence and information and continue doing operations on the ground that serve both the U.S. and Mexico’s priorities in terms of security.

How do you expect Sheinbaum to cooperate with the Biden administration on immigration? 

On the migration front, Sheinbaum is going to continue to cooperate with the United States because Mexico has a real objective to stem migrant flows into Mexico. Mexico is no longer just a transit country for migrants. It is now a destination, and the Mexican government has to absorb thousands of migrants that are going to potentially stay in Mexico if they can’t reach the U.S.-Mexico border. Sheinbaum has stated that she wants the United States to provide funds and resources so that Mexico can absorb these migrants on Mexican soil. She will press, like AMLO did, for the United States to fund some of the social programs that in her view could really address the root causes of migration.

Sheinbaum is a renowned climate scientist. Do you see her following her predecessor’s investment in domestic fossil fuel infrastructure, or pivoting to renewables? 

She has said that she wants to attract more investment for the renewable and clean energy sector. That’s very different from AMLO’s preference for fossil fuels and dirty energy. She is a scientist by trade. So that might drive her idea of bringing more foreign direct investment in the renewable energy sector, which is super important for the United States. I think Sheinbaum has a better understanding of how vital the energy sector is for the United States and how important it is to preserve a good standing as the top trading partner of the United States in order for the economy to keep growing.

Despite being the U.S.’s top trade partner, Mexico has also been cozying up with Chinese investors. What is Sheinbaum’s stance on China, and how could that impact the Mexico-U.S. relationship? 

It is true that investment from China has increased in Mexico in the past years. Sheinbaum understands that this is a hotspot for the United States, but she is going to have to balance this relationship with China because, for example, Chinese companies offer Mexican citizens a cheaper alternative to EVs than the United States. So she’s going to have to keep her consumers happy and at the same time make sure that she keeps the United States happy and keeps U.S. national security protected.

Mexico’s high level of violence will be one of Sheinbaum’s most urgent challenges upon taking office in October. How will she tackle Mexico’s pervasive gang violence?

If we look at what she did as mayor of Mexico City, we can get an idea of what to expect during her six-year term. Her security strategy in Mexico City did provide really positive results on a variety of issues. I think she’s going to have a much stronger security strategy than AMLO’s failed “Hugs Not Bullets” strategy, which focused on the prevention side of security instead of frontally combating transnational criminal organizations. And she will receive pressure from the United States. I think Mexico will continue to place the illicit flow of arms from the United States and Mexico as a priority for the Mexican government on the security agenda. There’s real optimism from different U.S. security agencies that this will be a restart, a 180 from what they saw with AMLO.

What’s the significance of Sheinbaum’s landslide and the extreme dominance of the MORENA party?

The governing party won not just the presidency, but won a super majority in Congress, seven out of nine governorships, the mayorship of Mexico City, and the majority of the major districts in the Capitol. So it really is a testament that Mexico’s democratic system is reversing into a single, dominant hegemonic party. Why is this important to the United States? Because if Mexico doesn’t have a democracy, forget about security cooperation, forget about nearshoring, because companies are not going to want to invest in a country where there’s no separation of powers, where there’s not an independent, autonomous judicial branch, where there’s no clear rules of the game. All of this could affect all aspects of the bilateral relationship and that is something to keep an eye on.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @rachel_shin_ .

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How will digital currencies shape the future of finance? As blockchain technology advances, digital currencies are poised to disrupt traditional banking models and could redefine the global monetary landscape. Central banks are working across global stakeholders to help determine what future adoption might look like – presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses. Explore in-depth analysis from Citi on the potential implications in the Citi GPS Report, Money, Tokens, and Games.

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— Appeals court halts Trump’s criminal proceedings in Georgia amid scrutiny of Fani Willis: A Georgia appeals court has halted all pretrial proceedings in Donald Trump’s Atlanta-based criminal case while a three-judge panel considers whether to disqualify the lead prosecutor, Fulton County District Attorney Fani Willis. The order issued today effectively confirms that the sprawling racketeering case against Trump and more than a dozen codefendants — charging them with an attempt to corrupt Georgia’s 2020 election results — will not come before a jury in 2024.

— Contraception bill fails in Senate: Senate Republicans blocked passage today of a bill to protect Americans’ access to birth control , one of several legislative actions Democrats have pledged on reproductive rights in the leadup to the November election. Only Sens. Lisa Murkowski (R-Alaska) and Susan Collins (R-Maine) broke with the GOP to vote in favor of the legislation, which failed 51 to 39 — short of the 60 votes needed to advance. The vote comes on the heels of former President Donald Trump telling a local television station that he’s “looking at” restrictions on contraception, and just ahead of the two-year anniversary of the Dobbs decision that ended the federal right to abortion. Trump quickly walked back his comment in a social media post, vowing never to “ban” birth control.

— Two of Hunter Biden’s exes describe his years of drug abuse: Hunter Biden’s federal trial on gun-related charges took a personal turn today as two of his former romantic partners, including his ex-wife, Kathleen Buhle, took the witness stand and described Biden’s years of abusing crack cocaine . Both women were called by prosecutors, who have charged the president’s son with three felonies stemming from his purchase of a handgun in October 2018. Prosecutors say he lied about his drug addiction on a federal gun-purchasing form and then illegally possessed the gun for about two weeks.

 

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NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

CORPORATE OUTREACH — Former President Donald Trump will attend a private meeting with one of the most powerful business lobbying groups in Washington as he tries to craft an alliance with major corporate leaders, reports NBC News. Joshua Bolten, the CEO of the Business Roundtable, confirmed in an email to members today that Trump will be at the group’s plenary meeting in Washington on June 13. Though President Joe Biden was invited, he cannot attend due to overseas travel for a G7 meeting. The business group instead asked White House chief of staff Jeff Zients to come, according to Bolten’s email. Zients accepted the invitation last week and plans to address the group on June 13, according to a person familiar with his plans.

The meeting is off the record and closed to the press, Bolten wrote in his message.

THE DAILY VEEPSTAKES — Donald Trump’s search for a running mate is intensifying , as the former president awaits sentencing on felony charges and prepares for next month’s Republican National Convention, writes NBC News..

Vice presidential contenders recently received vetting materials. Trump’s search, according to one source, is heavily concentrated on four top prospects: North Dakota Gov. Doug Burgum and Sens. Marco Rubio of Florida, Tim Scott of South Carolina and JD Vance of Ohio. Another source described a three-way competition involving Burgum, Rubio and Vance.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

Posters of candidates displayed for the European elections on administrative notice boards in Paris.

Posters of candidates displayed for the European elections on administrative notice boards in Paris. | Magali Cohen/Hans Lucas/AFP via Getty Images

TO THE POLLS — Across Europe, the radical right is on the rise. This week’s European Parliament election will reveal just how much .

In France, the far-right National Rally party is on track to receive a third of the vote, more than double the support of its nearest rival, President Emmanuel Macron’s Renaissance party. In Germany, despite a series of scandals, the AfD is headed for second place, ahead of every partner in Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s governing coalition. In Italy, Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni’s right-wing Brothers of Italy party is floating far ahead of the chasing pack.

Five years ago, a “Green wave” in the 2019 European Parliament election spurred the Continent’s leaders to launch an epochal restructuring of the economy aimed at making the EU climate-neutral by 2050. This year, the tide is flowing in the opposite direction. An even stronger performance by parties once shunned as too toxic to work with will likely have an even larger effect as Europe’s political leaders realize the radical right is no longer at the gates — it’s inside the palace and can no longer be ignored.

The European Parliament election runs from June 6-9 — keep tabs on the results here . And if you’re an American who hasn’t heard much about what’s going on this week, here’s a primer .

BUZZ THE TOWER — Ukrainian officials are pressing the U.S. and other countries to ramp up their F-16 pilot training , saying the current pipeline isn’t producing enough aviators to fly the jets that will be soon donated to Kyiv.

Ukraine says it has 30 pilots who are eligible to start training in the U.S. immediately. Yet the Biden administration has told Kyiv it lacks the school seats in its Arizona-based program to accept more than 12 pilot trainees at a time, according to three people with direct knowledge of the request. Two other facilities in Denmark and Romania have a similar issue with available training spots.

It’s the latest hurdle in the drawn-out effort to get modern F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine. Kyiv began pushing for the aircraft in the months following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, but was repeatedly rebuffed by the Biden administration. In May 2023, President Joe Biden greenlit other countries’ requests to send their F-16s, but logistical challenges repeatedly delayed the training. Further complicating the effort, it took months for Western countries to agree to send their own aircraft to Ukraine.

 

JOIN US ON 6/12 FOR A TALK ON THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY : As air travel soars again, policymakers and airlines are grappling with a series of contemporary challenges to the industry's future. Join POLITICO on June 12 for a topical and timely conversation with government leaders and aviation stakeholders about the state of the airline industry. From what passengers want to what airlines need amid the high demand for air traffic, workers and technology solutions. What can Washington do to ensure passengers and providers are equipped to fly right? REGISTER HERE .

 
 
NIGHTLY NUMBER

Up to $17 billion

The amount that Disney plans to invest in its Florida resort , now that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the company are set to bury the hatchet and approve an agreement. Five DeSantis-appointed supervisors who oversee the Disney World district voted today to give initial approval to a new development agreement.

RADAR SWEEP

SUBSCRIPTION-BASED COFFEE — In our regular work-from-wherever era, a lot of people are choosing to post up for hours — or the full day — at coffee shops. For the businesses, it can be inviting to have a full place. But usually, people sitting there for hours and not ordering anything beyond one coffee when they arrive is bad for business, making it difficult to stay afloat. One potential solution? A subscription model . Pay a nominal fee and get to sit in the place all you want. Could your favorite coffee shop become a little more like a gym, or a newspaper? Andy Vasoyan reports for Slate.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1989: A Chinese man stands alone to block a line of tanks heading east on Beijing's Cangan Blvd. in Tiananmen Square. The man, calling for an end to the recent violence and bloodshed against pro-democracy demonstrators, was pulled away by bystanders, and the tanks continued on their way. The Chinese government crushed a student-led demonstration for democratic reform and against government corruption, killing hundreds in the strongest anti-government
 protest since the 1949 revolution.

On this date in 1989: A Chinese man stands alone to block a line of tanks heading east on Beijing's Cangan Blvd. in Tiananmen Square. The man, calling for an end to the recent violence and bloodshed against pro-democracy demonstrators, was pulled away by bystanders, and the tanks continued on their way. The Chinese government crushed a student-led demonstration for democratic reform and against government corruption, killing hundreds in the strongest anti-government protest since the 1949 revolution. | Jeff Widener/AP

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How will digital currencies shape the future of finance?

As blockchain technology advances, digital currencies are poised to disrupt traditional banking models and could redefine the global monetary landscape – presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses.

Blockchain-based products can make a significant impact in terms of wide consumer adoption in digital currency, especially central bank digital currency (CBDCs), gaming, and social. Momentum on adoption has positively shifted as governments, large institutions, and corporations have moved from investigating the benefits of tokenization to trials and proofs of concept.

Explore in-depth analysis from Citi on the potential implications in the Citi GPS Report, Money, Tokens, and Games.

 
 

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Top News | 'He’s Not Going to Run Unopposed': Sanders Rejects Schumer for Majority Leader

                                                               LOTS OF POSTS IGNORED BY BLOGGER..... OR REMOVED ON THEIR WHIM! ALL POSTS ARE...