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Morning Digest, sponsored by Civitech: Party-switcher Jeff Van Drew says he’ll seek a rematch after shock loss
The defeated Republican called the midterms “Watergate 2” but wants to take another swing
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Leading Off
NJ-02
Republican Rep. Jeff Van Drew said on Monday that he’ll wage a comeback campaign to reclaim the seat he just lost in one of the midterms’ biggest upsets.
“Once I’m done here next year, I’m starting the campaign for ‘28,” the 73-year-old Van Drew told Hailey Bullis of the conservative Washington Examiner. “I’m ready. I talked to all my chairmen,” he added, saying he would “give this one more shot.”
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Last week, Democrat Zack Mullock, the mayor of Cape May, defeated Van Drew by a 51-48 margin, an outcome few saw coming. Even Mullock himself told the Washington Sun he was “shocked” by the result.
In 2018, Van Drew was first elected to Congress in New Jersey’s 2nd District as a Democrat after a long career in the state legislature, but he defected to the GOP the following year.
The congressman, who pledged his “undying support” to Donald Trump when announcing his conversion, won a competitive reelection fight in 2020, but his worries seemed to be over after Democrats shifted red turf into his constituency to make other seats bluer.
After easy wins in 2022 and 2024, however, Van Drew unexpectedly went down to defeat last Tuesday. The congressman responded by comparing the night to one of the worst elections for Republicans in living memory.
“This was a very, very close election in the worst of times,” he told the Philadelphia Inquirer on Monday. “I mean, this is Watergate 2.”
Van Drew began preparing for a rematch against Mullock before he told Bullis that evening he would run again. In a statement posted on Facebook earlier in the day, a Van Drew spokesperson said the campaign would keep its headquarters open and maintain a full-time staff. Political analyst Rob Pyers also flagged on Friday that Van Drew quietly filed paperwork with the FEC to raise money for a potential 2028 bid.
Despite his loss, Van Drew’s move is likely to deter many Republicans from entering the race. One, state Sen. Vince Polistina, had already said that he’d defer to the outgoing congressman even before Monday’s announcement.
Mullock, meanwhile, will once again need to find a way to win in a challenging district that Trump carried 56-43.
The day after the elections, Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill said that she didn’t plan to push for a new congressional map that could help protect Mullock or fellow Democrat Rebecca Bennett, who flipped the 7th District in the New York City suburbs. Democrats in the legislature had previously signaled a lack of interest in pursuing a remap.
Late Calls
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AZ-02: Freedom Caucus Rep. Eli Crane defeated Democrat Jonathan Nez by a 50-49 margin to win a third term in Arizona’s normally conservative 2nd District, a sprawling rural constituency in the state’s northeastern corner. The district is home to the Navajo Nation, where Nez served as president from 2019 to 2023, and voted for Donald Trump 57-42.
CA-40: Rep. Ken Calvert defeated fellow Rep. Young Kim in an all-Republican general election for California’s 40th District. The two colleagues competed for this conservative constituency, based in eastern Orange County and southwestern Riverside County, after voters approved a new Democratic-drawn map last year.
CO-04: Democrat Eileen Laubacher knocked off Rep. Lauren Boebert, one of the most notorious Republicans in Congress, in Colorado’s 4th District. The 4th, which covers all of the eastern part of the state but also dips into the Denver suburbs, is the reddest in Colorado, having voted for Trump by a 58-40 margin. Laubacher overcame those headwinds, however, to beat Boebert 49-48.
FL-09: Democratic Rep. Darren Soto overcame exceptionally tough odds to win another term representing Florida’s Orlando-area 9th District, which Republicans radically overhauled in passing their new gerrymander earlier this year. Soto’s revamped district, which barely resembled his old one, would have backed Trump 58-41, but he defeated Republican Dan Green 50.3 to 49.7.
With Soto’s victory now in the books, Florida Republicans have failed to flip any of the four Democratic districts they targeted under their new map.
FL-26: Longtime Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart, who was not regarded as vulnerable by major players in either party, just barely survived his bid for a 13th term by holding off Democrat Nicole Locklin 50-49—and he can thank his fellow Republicans for his near-defeat.
In an effort to make nearby districts redder, Florida Republicans made the Miami-area 26th District significantly bluer under their new map. The prior version had backed Trump by a daunting 67-32 margin, but the current iteration supported him by a considerably smaller 59-40 spread.
That shift, combined with the collapse in Diaz-Balart’s support, almost resulted in a classic dummymander—a gerrymandered map that winds up hurting the party that drew it by costing it seats that it already held. The close result, though, is likely to prompt Democrats to take another look at this seat in the coming cycle.
WA-05: Rep. Michael Baumgartner has hung on in eastern Washington’s conservative 5th District, defeating Democrat Carmela Conroy by a narrow margin even though Trump carried his district 54-43. With an estimated 90% of votes counted according to the Associated Press, Baumgartner leads Conroy 52-48.
CA Ballot: California voters have rejected Proposition 40, which would have instituted a one-time 5% tax on residents with a net worth of at least $1 billion.
Senate
MO-Sen, MO-Gov
Kansas City Mayor Quinton Lucas told KCMO on Thursday that he’s considering seeking the Democratic nomination for Senate or governor in 2028. Lucas, who cannot seek a third term as mayor of Missouri’s largest city next year, didn’t signal whether he was more interested in challenging Republican Sen. Eric Schmitt or GOP Gov. Mike Kehoe.
PA-Sen
Ahmed Moor, a writer with a background in international development, just became the first Pennsylvania Democrat to announce a campaign against Democratic Sen. John Fetterman.
“The truth is, I’m not really running against Fetterman,” Moor, a first-time candidate and member of the Democratic Socialists of America, told the Philadelphia Inquirer. “I’m running for good government. I’m running for the rule of law.”
Several other Democrats are publicly or privately considering taking on Fetterman, a pariah within his party. NBC 10 reported last week that state Rep. Malcolm Kenyatta, who took third place against Fetterman in their 2022 primary, is “50-50” about whether to run again or pursue a rematch against state Auditor Timothy DeFoor, the Republican who beat him in 2024.
Rep. Madeleine Dean, meanwhile, didn’t rule out a Senate campaign when the station asked her. She instead said she would “continue to evaluate where I can do the most good for my constituents, for Pennsylvanians, and for our country.” Previously, Rep. Chris Deluzio also signaled his interest.
Governors
LA-Gov, LA-Sen
Former Louisiana Gov. John Bel Edwards told The Advocate over the weekend that he will not challenge Republican incumbent Jeff Landry for his old job next year. Edwards is the most prominent Democrat in the state, but several other names are in the mix.
Public Service Commissioner Davante Lewis, state Sen. Jay Luneau, former state Sen. Gary Smith, and financial adviser Dustin Granger, who unsuccessfully ran for state treasurer in 2023, all informed the paper of their interest. Luneau added that he would “have to make those decisions pretty quickly.”
Rep. Troy Carter and New Orleans Mayor Helena Moreno, meanwhile, didn’t say no when asked, though both said they were happy with their current positions. And former New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu did not respond to The Advocate’s inquiries, though he’s shown considerably more interest in running for president.
Finally, farmer Jamie Davis, who came stunningly close to beating Republican Julia Letlow for Senate last week, told the paper, “If I don’t run for governor, I’m definitely running for Senate in 2028.” The state’s other Senate seat is held by Republican John Kennedy, who is 74. Kennedy told NBC last month that he, too, was considering running for president.
Landry, for his part, could also face intraparty opposition in next October’s all-party primary. Neither Lt. Gov. Billy Nungesser nor state Treasurer John Fleming, who beat Granger in 2023 before losing to Letlow in the GOP Senate primary this summer, ruled anything out when contacted by The Advocate, while former Rep. Garret Graves didn’t comment. None, however, have taken any obvious steps toward running.
MS-Gov
Mississippi Auditor Shad White launched a bid on Monday to succeed termed-out Gov. Tate Reeves, a fellow Republican, in next year’s election. White joins several other Republicans in a busy race that could attract renewed interest from Democrats looking to capitalize on the state’s startlingly tight Senate race.
White has generated attention for his investigation into a long-running welfare scandal involving retired NFL quarterback Brett Favre.
In 2020, White accused Favre, a Mississippi native, of receiving $1.1 million from the federally funded Temporary Assistance for Needy Families program for at least three speeches he never delivered. Text messages later published by Mississippi Today showed then-Gov. Phil Bryant, Reeves’ immediate predecessor, advising Favre how to obtain welfare funds to finance his proposed volleyball arena at the University of Southern Mississippi, where Favre’s daughter participated in that sport.
White wrote a 2024 book about the probe titled “Mississippi Swindle,” but Favre, who has denied wrongdoing, filed a defamation suit against him before it was published. (The matter is still pending.) White filed his own suit against Favre demanding he pay interest on top of the $1.1 million in TANF funds he eventually returned to the state, but the state Supreme Court ruled in June that White lacked authority in the matter.
White joins a crowded GOP primary that includes Attorney General Lynn Fitch, Agriculture Commissioner Andy Gipson, and former state House Speaker Philip Gunn. Mississippi Today adds that billionaire Tommy Duff, former Rep. Gregg Harper, and Lt. Gov. Delbert Hosemann are also considering entering ahead of the Feb. 1 filing deadline.
Most of the talk on the Democratic side has focused on former Public Service Commissioner Brandon Presley, who narrowly lost to Reeves in 2023 in a contest where Presley highlighted the welfare scandal. Columnist Mac Gordon, in a September piece for the Mississippi Clarion Ledger, identified Presley as a “likely” contender for 2027.
Presley has said little about his own plans, though he’s actively supported Scott Colom’s Senate campaign. Colom currently leads Republican incumbent Cindy Hyde‑Smith 49.1 to 48.8—a margin of over 2,000 votes—in what would be the first Democratic statewide victory for any office in over a decade.
Mississippi’s next governor may need to go through as many as four different elections next year. Party primaries are set for Aug. 3, but candidates need to win a majority to avert a runoff on Aug. 31.
The general election will take place on Nov. 2, but unlike in the Senate race, candidates can’t win with a simple plurality. In 2020, voters amended the constitution to replace Mississippi’s Jim Crow-era election system, which required statewide candidates for state-level office to win both a majority of the vote and a majority of the 122 districts that make up the state House: If no candidate cleared both these thresholds, the state House would pick the winner from the top two finishers.
Candidates, however, now must win a statewide majority to avoid a runoff on Nov. 30.
House
Comebacks
Several congressional candidates who lost races this year have already submitted forms to the Federal Election Commission that could signal their intent to run again in 2028, but these filings may amount to little more than paperwork to tie up loose ends.
Since the midterms, at least four defeated Republicans have filed a new “statement of candidacy” with the FEC listing “2028” as their election year: Rep. Jeff Van Drew in New Jersey’s 2nd, Rep. Scott Perry in Pennsylvania’s 10th District, Rep. Derrick Van Orden in Wisconsin’s 3rd, and Army veteran Eric Flores in Texas’ 34th.
Attorney Patrick Roath, who lost the Democratic primary for Massachusetts’ 8th District to Rep. Stephen Lynch by a 56-44 margin, also filed the same form on Monday.
But apart from Van Drew (see our lead item), none of the Republicans have actually addressed the question of whether they’re interested in another bid. Perry’s campaign, for instance, did not respond to a request for comment from the York Daily Record, nor did Van Orden’s team say anything to the Washington Sun. However, immediately after he lost in September, Roath told Spectrum News that a rematch was “really hard to imagine given what I just went through.”
Sometimes, though, this sort of paperwork means little. In May of 2019, for instance, former Kansas Rep. Kevin Yoder unexpectedly filed a new statement of candidacy half a year after he was soundly defeated by Democrat Sharice Davids. But, it turned out, Yoder had no desire to return to public office.
Rather, a consultant explained to McClatchy that the ex-congressman’s campaign had received a $6,300 refund from its landlord—a sum in excess of the $5,000 in either fundraising or spending that requires candidates to file a statement of candidacy.
“The FEC gave the option for Yoder to ‘disavow’ the fundraising on his behalf, which does seem a little silly in this instance,” a campaign finance expert informed McClatchy. “In order to save themselves the headache Yoder just declared his 2020 candidacy.”
But even if people like Van Orden and Perry are interested in running again and not just tidying up their books, submitting papers to the FEC is a very low lift—and just one step toward kicking off an actual campaign. Many would-be candidates will also file statements of candidacy but never wind up running.
Mayors & County Leaders
Los Angeles County, CA Executive
Los Angeles County Supervisor Lindsey Horvath on Monday became the first major candidate to announce a campaign for county executive, a post that will be on the ballot for the first time ever in 2028.
Horvath, a Democrat, is one of five members of the Board of Supervisors for the nation’s most populous county, a body that currently has the power to appoint and remove the county’s top administrator.
In 2024, however, voters narrowly approved a ballot measure championed by Horvath to make the executive an elected office in its own right. It also required expanding the Board of Supervisors from five members to nine by 2032.
Horvath, the only supervisor to support Nithya Raman’s successful campaign to unseat Los Angeles Mayor Karen Bass last week, is sure to face serious opposition for what will likely become one of the most influential offices in the state. The new executive will serve about one in four Californians, giving the occupant a perch that could one day be a major asset in a statewide race.
All candidates are set to face off in March 2028 in an officially nonpartisan primary. The two contenders with the most votes would proceed to the fall general election unless someone wins a majority in the first round. There’s little question, though, that whoever wins the race to run this deep blue county will identify as a Democrat.
Other Races
NJ-LG
Democratic Gov. Mikie Sherrill on Monday appointed Shirley Emehelu, a former federal and state prosecutor, as New Jersey’s lieutenant governor and secretary of state. Emehelu replaces Dale Caldwell, who was elected as Sherrill’s running mate last year but resigned in September after an investigation found that he had sexually harassed staffers and violated ethics rules.
Sherrill and Emehelu will be up for a new four-year term in 2029.
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