POLITICO Nightly: What Mexico’s new president means for the U.S.

BY RACHEL SHIN Presented by Citi Claudia Sheinbaum celebrates following the results of the general election in Mexico at Zocalo Square in Mexico City. | Carl de Souza/AFP via Getty Images MEET LA DOCTORA — America’s closest partner — on trade, migration, energy and more — has made history by electing its first woman as president. Now the U.S. is watching Mexico’s Claudia Sheinbaum with one question in mind: Will she be a facsimile of her predecessor or blaze her own path? Sheinbaum served nearly five years as mayor of Mexico City, resigning in 2023 to seek the presidential nomination. Before entering politics, she was an environmental engineer, worked on a UN panel of climate scientists, and received the nickname “la Doctora” for her stellar scientific credentials. Sheinbaum’s landslide victory was propelled by the endorsement of Mexico’s current president, Andrés Manuel López Obrador (AMLO), her political mentor and the wildly popular founder of the country’s dominant, populist MORENA party (Movimiento de Regeneración Nacional). She’s promised to follow many of his precedents, including cooperating with Washington on reducing migrant border crossing, but it’s not yet clear whether she’ll diverge from him on key issues highly relevant to the U.S. including gang violence, energy and international investment. To understand the significance of Sheinbaum’s election for U.S.-Mexico relations, Nightly spoke with Lila Abed, the director of the Wilson Center’s Mexico Institute and a columnist for El Heraldo de México and Opinión51. We discussed how Sheinbaum’s election fits into the U.S.-Mexico bilateral relationship, and what may be on the horizon for the U.S.’s top trade partner. This interview has been edited for length and clarity. What are the key differences between AMLO and Sheinbaum, the former president’s hand-picked successor? What changes can the U.S. expect?  Security cooperation between Mexico and the United States under the AMLO administration really deteriorated. There’s going to unfortunately need to be a rebuilding of mutual trust between U.S. and Mexico’s security agencies. From speaking to folks close to Claudia’s team, there really is an incentive to restart the relationship with the United States in terms of security cooperation. Sheinbaum, at least in her political platform, has signaled stark differences, one being that she wants to create a national intelligence agency that can better gather intelligence and information, that coordinates all levels of federal, state and municipal level in terms of security cooperation. I think this will allow the United States and Mexico to better exchange intelligence and information and continue doing operations on the ground that serve both the U.S. and Mexico’s priorities in terms of security. How do you expect Sheinbaum to cooperate with the Biden administration on immigration?  On the migration front, Sheinbaum is going to continue to cooperate with the United States because Mexico has a real objective to stem migrant flows into Mexico. Mexico is no longer just a transit country for migrants. It is now a destination, and the Mexican government has to absorb thousands of migrants that are going to potentially stay in Mexico if they can’t reach the U.S.-Mexico border. Sheinbaum has stated that she wants the United States to provide funds and resources so that Mexico can absorb these migrants on Mexican soil. She will press, like AMLO did, for the United States to fund some of the social programs that in her view could really address the root causes of migration. Sheinbaum is a renowned climate scientist. Do you see her following her predecessor’s investment in domestic fossil fuel infrastructure, or pivoting to renewables?  She has said that she wants to attract more investment for the renewable and clean energy sector. That’s very different from AMLO’s preference for fossil fuels and dirty energy. She is a scientist by trade. So that might drive her idea of bringing more foreign direct investment in the renewable energy sector, which is super important for the United States. I think Sheinbaum has a better understanding of how vital the energy sector is for the United States and how important it is to preserve a good standing as the top trading partner of the United States in order for the economy to keep growing. Despite being the U.S.’s top trade partner, Mexico has also been cozying up with Chinese investors. What is Sheinbaum’s stance on China, and how could that impact the Mexico-U.S. relationship?  It is true that investment from China has increased in Mexico in the past years. Sheinbaum understands that this is a hotspot for the United States, but she is going to have to balance this relationship with China because, for example, Chinese companies offer Mexican citizens a cheaper alternative to EVs than the United States. So she’s going to have to keep her consumers happy and at the same time make sure that she keeps the United States happy and keeps U.S. national security protected. Mexico’s high level of violence will be one of Sheinbaum’s most urgent challenges upon taking office in October. How will she tackle Mexico’s pervasive gang violence? If we look at what she did as mayor of Mexico City, we can get an idea of what to expect during her six-year term. Her security strategy in Mexico City did provide really positive results on a variety of issues. I think she’s going to have a much stronger security strategy than AMLO’s failed “Hugs Not Bullets” strategy, which focused on the prevention side of security instead of frontally combating transnational criminal organizations. And she will receive pressure from the United States. I think Mexico will continue to place the illicit flow of arms from the United States and Mexico as a priority for the Mexican government on the security agenda. There’s real optimism from different U.S. security agencies that this will be a restart, a 180 from what they saw with AMLO. What’s the significance of Sheinbaum’s landslide and the extreme dominance of the MORENA party? The governing party won not just the presidency, but won a super majority in Congress, seven out of nine governorships, the mayorship of Mexico City, and the majority of the major districts in the Capitol. So it really is a testament that Mexico’s democratic system is reversing into a single, dominant hegemonic party. Why is this important to the United States? Because if Mexico doesn’t have a democracy, forget about security cooperation, forget about nearshoring, because companies are not going to want to invest in a country where there’s no separation of powers, where there’s not an independent, autonomous judicial branch, where there’s no clear rules of the game. All of this could affect all aspects of the bilateral relationship and that is something to keep an eye on. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @rachel_shin_ . A message from Citi: How will digital currencies shape the future of finance? As blockchain technology advances, digital currencies are poised to disrupt traditional banking models and could redefine the global monetary landscape. 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Get the premier news and policy intelligence service, SUBSCRIBE TO POLITICO PRO TODAY .     NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 CORPORATE OUTREACH — Former President Donald Trump will attend a private meeting with one of the most powerful business lobbying groups in Washington as he tries to craft an alliance with major corporate leaders, reports NBC News. Joshua Bolten, the CEO of the Business Roundtable, confirmed in an email to members today that Trump will be at the group’s plenary meeting in Washington on June 13. Though President Joe Biden was invited, he cannot attend due to overseas travel for a G7 meeting. The business group instead asked White House chief of staff Jeff Zients to come, according to Bolten’s email. Zients accepted the invitation last week and plans to address the group on June 13, according to a person familiar with his plans. The meeting is off the record and closed to the press, Bolten wrote in his message. 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Kyiv began pushing for the aircraft in the months following Russia’s full-scale invasion in February 2022, but was repeatedly rebuffed by the Biden administration. In May 2023, President Joe Biden greenlit other countries’ requests to send their F-16s, but logistical challenges repeatedly delayed the training. Further complicating the effort, it took months for Western countries to agree to send their own aircraft to Ukraine.   JOIN US ON 6/12 FOR A TALK ON THE AIRLINE INDUSTRY : As air travel soars again, policymakers and airlines are grappling with a series of contemporary challenges to the industry's future. Join POLITICO on June 12 for a topical and timely conversation with government leaders and aviation stakeholders about the state of the airline industry. From what passengers want to what airlines need amid the high demand for air traffic, workers and technology solutions. What can Washington do to ensure passengers and providers are equipped to fly right? REGISTER HERE .     NIGHTLY NUMBER Up to $17 billion The amount that Disney plans to invest in its Florida resort , now that Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the company are set to bury the hatchet and approve an agreement. Five DeSantis-appointed supervisors who oversee the Disney World district voted today to give initial approval to a new development agreement. RADAR SWEEP SUBSCRIPTION-BASED COFFEE — In our regular work-from-wherever era, a lot of people are choosing to post up for hours — or the full day — at coffee shops. For the businesses, it can be inviting to have a full place. But usually, people sitting there for hours and not ordering anything beyond one coffee when they arrive is bad for business, making it difficult to stay afloat. One potential solution? A subscription model . Pay a nominal fee and get to sit in the place all you want. Could your favorite coffee shop become a little more like a gym, or a newspaper? Andy Vasoyan reports for Slate. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1989: A Chinese man stands alone to block a line of tanks heading east on Beijing's Cangan Blvd. in Tiananmen Square. The man, calling for an end to the recent violence and bloodshed against pro-democracy demonstrators, was pulled away by bystanders, and the tanks continued on their way. The Chinese government crushed a student-led demonstration for democratic reform and against government corruption, killing hundreds in the strongest anti-government protest since the 1949 revolution. | Jeff Widener/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here . A message from Citi: How will digital currencies shape the future of finance? As blockchain technology advances, digital currencies are poised to disrupt traditional banking models and could redefine the global monetary landscape – presenting both challenges and opportunities for businesses. Blockchain-based products can make a significant impact in terms of wide consumer adoption in digital currency, especially central bank digital currency (CBDCs), gaming, and social. Momentum on adoption has positively shifted as governments, large institutions, and corporations have moved from investigating the benefits of tokenization to trials and proofs of concept. Explore in-depth analysis from Citi on the potential implications in the Citi GPS Report, Money, Tokens, and Games.     Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   FOLLOW US

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