Thursday, November 30, 2023

POLITICO Nightly: How the Kremlin keeps dodging tough sanctions

 

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BY GABRIEL GAVIN

Presented by the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition

A Russian cargo ship arrives at the port of Dunkirk in northern France.

A Russian cargo ship arrives at the port of Dunkirk in northern France on March 20, 2023. | Sameer Al-Doumy/AFP via Getty Images

POWER PLAY — Smoke rose over Kyiv on Saturday as the city was hit with the largest drone strike since the start of the full-scale invasion , killing five and forcing Ukrainian civilians to huddle together in bomb shelters for more than six hours.

While Russia rains down death in Eastern Europe, across the other side of the continent, EU nations are still divided over just how much they want to go after the Kremlin’s energy exports.

The bloc’s long-awaited package of new sanctions is the twelfth it will have imposed on Russia in the past year and a half. A draft document seen by POLITICO revealed that key demands from Kyiv — lowering the $60 oil price cap to $30 per barrel, banning fuel refined from Russian oil in third countries , and ending the purchase of Moscow’s nuclear fuel — have struggled to find consensus in Brussels.

That’s creating headaches in Washington, which wants its partners to move faster on cutting off Moscow’s flow of cash, but is loath to be seen to intervene politically on the other side of the Atlantic. Now, the State Department is taking unprecedented steps that could have a profound impact for European firms still doing business in Russia.

Instead of targeting flagship exports like oil and gas, Ukraine’s European allies will focus on restricting trade in diamonds, iron and copper, which are of relatively little value to the Russian state. When it comes to energy, “we’ve reached the capacity of what we can do without shooting [ourselves] in the foot and harming our competitiveness," one EU diplomat claimed.

The biggest omission is liquefied natural gas, the all-important fossil fuel that netted President Vladimir Putin’s regime an estimated $6.6 billion in sales in the EU this year alone. Countries like Spain and Belgium have actually even boosted their LNG imports by a massive 50 percent in 2023, compared to 2022.

Meanwhile, hopes that Europe could agree to shut the door on Russia’s atomic energy sector given its dangerous occupation of Ukraine’s Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant — the continent’s largest — have failed to materialize. Hungary is expanding one of its own atomic power stations with Moscow’s help and populist Prime Minister Viktor Orbán has vowed to veto any sanctions that would hurt the industrydespite criticism from EU and Ukrainian officials alike. Unanimous support from all 27 member states is needed to impose new restrictions, meaning talks on the subject are now deadlocked.

The standoff creates a challenge for Washington, which is trying to keep Ukraine’s allies united and maintain pressure on Russia’s economy. Earlier this month, the Biden administration took the unprecedented step of slapping sanctions on a major LNG project in Russia’s frozen Arctic region , despite the fact that European companies are actively involved in the project. Now, France’s TotalEnergies could have to decide whether to give up their stake or run the risk of serious consequences from the Treasury Department. It’s a surprise move that may indicate the U.S. is prepared to use its global influence while Europe seemingly drags its feet.

Washington has also stepped well beyond the EU in sanctioning Alexey Miller , the CEO of state energy giant Gazprom, and has imposed restrictions on several senior Russian nuclear officials.

While the Russian budget is facing a multibillion-dollar black hole as a result of the sanctions that have already been imposed, Putin is betting that he can hold the system together long enough for Western support for Ukraine to wane. Whether he is right or not depends on what European and American politicians do next — and, if they fail, they could find themselves worrying about more than the energy bill.

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at ggavin@politico.eu or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @GabrielCSGavin .

 

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Some politicians are trying to defund data security by passing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill, serving your private financial data to hackers on a silver platter. But you can stop them. Learn more and tell Congress to stop the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.

 
WHAT'D I MISS?

— House GOP denies Hunter Biden demand on impeachment inquiry testimony: Hunter Biden’s legal team demanded that he be allowed to testify publicly in response to a House GOP subpoena. Rep. James Comer (R-Ky.) quickly shot it down . A Biden lawyer sent a letter to the House Oversight Chair this morning, saying the president’s son would appear publicly before the committee on Dec. 13. That ran counter to a stipulation of the subpoena, which called for a private deposition with lawmakers and aides. “A public proceeding would prevent selective leaks, manipulated transcripts, doctored exhibits, or one-sided press statements,” Abbe Lowell, Hunter Biden’s attorney, wrote in the letter. He added that they were also amenable to any other date next month the two sides could agree on. Comer denied the request in a statement today, saying it “won’t stand with House Republicans.”

— Jewish groups sue University of California over ‘unchecked’ antisemitism: Jewish groups are suing the University of California system, UC Berkeley and its leaders over what they are calling a “longstanding, unchecked spread of anti-Semitism.” The 36-page lawsuit, filed today by the Brandeis Center and Jewish Americans for Fairness in Education, argues that Berkeley and its law school’s “inaction” on discrimination against Jewish students has led to a spread of antisemitism, and violence and harassment against them. Demonstrations and incidents on campus following the Oct. 7 Hamas attacks on Israel serve as examples of the discrimination, according to the complaint.

— Democrat starts official clock for Santos expulsion vote: A fierce Democratic critic of Rep. George Santos has officially triggered another push to expel him — the most serious threat against the indicted lawmaker to date. The privileged motion introduced by Rep. Robert Garcia (D-Calif.) means the House must vote on expulsion within two legislative days. That’s almost exactly two weeks after the release of a damning bipartisan House Ethics Committee report that found “sufficient evidence” of Santos’ criminal wrongdoing.

 

Enter the “room where it happens”, where global power players shape policy and politics, with Power Play. POLITICO’s brand-new podcast will host conversations with the leaders and power players shaping the biggest ideas and driving the global conversations, moderated by award-winning journalist Anne McElvoy. Sign up today to be notified of new episodes – click here .

 
 
NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

CAN’T QUIT X — The Biden campaign and White House increasingly see the site formerly known as Twitter as a sewer. They just can’t quite leave the mess alone , writes POLITICO..

They say they no longer see the platform as a place where they can actually build useful voter relations or even engage in level political discourse. But even as they trash the site, they aren’t ready to quit it either. Aides continue to tweet — as does the president. They debated, internally, the merits of leaving the platform, but determined it would be a mistake to leave even the crass political debates unattended.

Instead, they are adapting to the bare-knuckled nature of X by trying to shape it. Largely, they’ve used X to try and drive the conversation and slam their likely general election opponent. But aides to the president have begun more aggressively using the platform to call out reporters and news outlets, mock pundits and try to influence the news cycle.

HOME FIELD DISADVANTAGE — Nikki Haley sees her home state as a launchpad. It could become her campaign’s crash site, writes NBC News. The former South Carolina governor has staked her hopes of wresting the 2024 Republican presidential nomination from former President Donald Trump on the idea that she can survive January contests in Iowa and New Hampshire that will thin the GOP field and then defeat him in a one-on-one battle here in her backyard. So far, she hasn’t made the sale.

That’s at least in part because Haley has yet to give voters a reason to abandon Trump — the dominant political figure in the state for almost a decade — a recurring theme that emerged in interviews with almost two dozen Republican voters, current and former elected officials, county party chairs and Republican strategists. The same can be said for Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis and the rest of a field that Trump leads by more than 30 percentage points in recent polls of the state’s Feb. 24 primary.

DISQUALIFYING TRUMP — The window is narrowing to try to knock former President Donald Trump off California’s March 5 primary ballot , reports POLITICO. Democrats across the country have launched several long-shot challenges to Trump’s ballot status over his role in the Jan. 6, 2021 attack on the U.S. Capitol. But the deadline for California Secretary of State Shirley Weber to certify which presidential candidates will appear on the ballot is just a month away.

If Weber or the courts don’t act by Dec. 28, attempting to remove Trump could create major logistical challenges as the state prepares voter guides and other materials.

 

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AROUND THE WORLD

A man stands at a border checkpoint between Russia and Finland on Nov. 15, 2023.

A man stands at a border checkpoint between Russia and Finland on Nov. 15, 2023. | Vesa Moilanen/Lehtikuva/AFP via Getty Images

SHUT IT DOWN — Finland will completely close its border with Russia for two weeks after a surge of asylum seekers crossing the frontier, Finnish Prime Minister Petteri Orpo announced today .

“This is Russia’s influence activity, and we do not accept that,” Orpo said at a press conference, according to Finnish news outlet Helsingin Sanomat. The two-week border closure will take effect between Wednesday and Thursday night and will end on December 13, the paper reported.

Helsinki’s move follows a decision by the European border agency Frontex last week to deploy border guards and other staff, along with equipment, to bolster Finland’s border control activities amid accusations by Finland that Moscow is stoking the migrant influx. Tension between the two countries has escalated since Moscow launched its invasion of Ukraine in 2022, prompting Finland to join the NATO military alliance.

On Monday, NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg accused Russia of using migration as a tool to pressure Finland. “NATO stands in solidarity with our ally Finland,” he said.

 

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NIGHTLY NUMBER

$35 billion

The amount of money effectively being cut from the Defense Department budget , according to Deputy Defense Secretary Kathleen Hicks, as the Pentagon operates under a temporary funding measure that freezes spending at the previous year’s levels.

RADAR SWEEP

THE AIRBNB WARS — In New Orleans, Airbnb owners are at war with one another: The city tried to control short-term rentals through a lottery system that allowed one rental per carved up block. But the rule, designed initially to decrease short term rentals in the city, led to more chaos and confusion, especially after a federal judge halted the rule, which is still under review. Neighbors were pitted against each other in hopes to continue their rental side hustles. Now, the listings sit in limbo, with owners unsure whether they can create bookings or not as they await the judge’s final decision. In an article for WIRED, Amanda Hoover looks at how the city rule made a mess for Airbnb hosts around the city that is left frozen in place.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 2011: A veiled Egyptian woman casts her ballot in Maadi, a suburb of Cairo, as voting began in Egypt's first parliamentary elections since longtime authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising nine months prior.

On this date in 2011: A veiled Egyptian woman casts her ballot in Maadi, a suburb of Cairo, as voting began in Egypt's first parliamentary elections since longtime authoritarian leader Hosni Mubarak was ousted in a popular uprising nine months prior. | Tara Todras-Whitehill/AP

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A message from the Consumer Credit Card Protection Coalition:

Your security is on hackers’ wish list this year and some lawmakers are trying to put defunding data security under the tree by passing the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill.

If the Durbin-Marshall Credit Card bill becomes law, it could put millions of credit card transactions at much greater risk of hacking, fraud and identity theft. Washington should protect our private financial data, not make it easier for cyber criminals to hack into your wallet this holiday season.

Learn more and tell Congress to say no to defunding data security by rejecting the Durbin-Marshall credit card bill.

 
 

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