The Week Ahead

March 30, 2025

Joyce Vance Mar 31

Even though it’s almost a week out, it’s time to think ahead to April 5, a national day of protest, and what that could mean. So far, fiery town halls, some with empty seats for absent Republican representatives, have been building momentum and visibility to propel us into a moment of outrage. The motto for the day is “Hands Off.” Hands off our Medicaid, our libraries, our Social Security, our freedom of the press, our jobs. Our liberty.

Free and fair elections are the most important marker for democracy

Engaged citizens are the line that separates democracies that survive challenges from those that succumb to autocracy. We need look no further back than South Korea, where an elected official scaled a wall and others broke through police lines to get back into parliament to vote against martial law while outraged people gathered on the streets in protest. Democracies survive because enough people get involved to hold on to the next election, and then, their ranks are swelled by additional people who vote with them to keep democracy. Protests and lawsuits can help to defend a democracy against attacks from within, but it’s elections that move them forward. Free and fair elections are the hallmark, the essential element of a sustainable democracy, so as we prepare to protest in ways both big and small, it’s important to focus on key goals—chief among them, fighting to protect elections and make sure as many citizens as possible participate in them.

Last week brought good news for Democrats in Pennsylvania’s special election, where Dan Goughnour won in House District 35 with about 63.4% of the vote—13 percent ahead of where Democrats were in 2024. That meant Democrats reclaimed control of the House in that state. There was also good news in the Pennsylvania Senate, where the Democrat, James Malone, won a tight race with 50% to the Republican candidate’s 49.1% While that vote is too close for much comfort, it came in a district that consists of conservative suburban and farming community, and Malone was up 16 points from where Democrats were in 2024.

Last Week, the House in Pennsylvania passed a legislative package “designed to enshrine key elements of the Affordable Care Act into state law.” Democracy exists in multiple levels in our system of federalism, and whatever the damage in Washington, Democracy can still function at the state and local levels, and we should invest in it. And of course, state elections matter; they even matter on the national level when it comes to issues like gerrymandering and our ability to participate in democracy, as we discussed last night (in case you missed it).

So, Democrats head into Wisconsin on Tuesday feeling strong, despite Elon Musk’s efforts to inject pay-for-vote in the guise of paying people for signing a petition about so-called activist judges into the mix. Trump won Wisconsin in 2024 with 1,697,626 or 49.7% of the vote. But it was close, with Harris taking 48.9% of the ballots.

Also up Tuesday, a pair of House races in Florida—one for Matt Gaetz’s old seat and the other to replace National Security Advisor Mike Waltz, who is trying to survive the Signal chat debacle. Trump carried both districts by more than 30 points, and the seats are essential to the Republican majority in the House. That balance currently stands at 218 to 213 with four vacancies. Waltz’s district hasn’t sent a Democrat to Congress for forty years. If Democrats win or even if the Republican margins tighten, the shift in momentum could be just the punch in the arm Democrats in Washington need.

Immigration

Trump’s promised mass deportations haven’t materialized yet. Instead, his administration has resorted to kidnapping foreign students off the streets. The widely circulated video of Tufts student Rumeysa Ozturk being taken into ICE custody by masked agents depicts a woman in a headscarf on her way to celebrate a Ramadan break fast, looking about the furthest thing possible from a threat to our national security. The best ICE could muster was that she co-authored an article calling for Tufts to allow students the opportunity to criticize Israel. Deborah Fleischaker, the Biden administration’s chief of staff, said in the New York Times that she thought the arrest was a First Amendment violation and that “ICE had a policy in place that said that First Amendment activity was not to be the basis of enforcement action.”

Why is this happening? Why did ICE arrest a mechanical engineering student at the University of Alabama, a graduate student at the University of Minnesota, a recent graduate of Columbia with a green card, a Russian scientist at Harvard Medical School who came here after protesting for Ukraine, and students at Georgetown and Cornell? What prompted Secretary of State Marco Rubio to claim at least 300 student visas had been revoked?

We can make an educated guess. By February 11, NBC was reporting that Trump, who had promised mass deportations while on the campaign trail, wasn’t happy with the pace of removals. They reported that a person who was “familiar with Trump’s thinking” said that “It’s driving him nuts they’re not deporting more people.” That happened despite January reports that Trump officials had given ICE officials daily arrest quotas. The Washington Post reported that “Each field office has been instructed to make 75 arrests per day, with managers ‘held accountable’ for failing to meet the targets.”

Those targets would have increased arrests across the nation from a few hundred each day to a range of 1,200 to 1,500, but where were the people to come from? It’s not like ICE wasn’t doing anything before Trump resumed office. The federal crime of “aggravated reentry,” which applies to people who reenter the United States without permission after a previous deportation and have a history of violence or gang affiliation, was already a high priority for prosecution. So ICE appears to have turned to low-hanging fruit: foreign students on visas who participated in First Amendment-protected protests.

On February 12, 2025, The Guardian reported that two senior ICE officials were reassigned over the “slow rate of deportations and arrests” and that the “reassignments were a result of ‘frustration that deportation and arrest numbers were not increasing fast enough’ to meet the Trump administration's targets.” On February 21, CBS reported that the acting head of ICE had been reassigned due to similar concerns.

Numeric production targets may work for manufacturing Teslas, but they’re a horrible idea for law enforcement. They distort police exercise of discretion and force officers and agents to focus on meeting quotas, not doing justice. Studies show that when law enforcement officers have quotas imposed, they ignore violent crime and focus on easier, quicker cases to meet targets. Quotas increase the potential for officer misconduct. The classic example of setting quotas is for traffic tickets—imagine how much worse the incentives are when a president decides to force dramatically more arrests and deportations. That could explain why students’ visas are being revoked and suggests that there will be more.

This rivals the family separation policy of the first Trump administration for sheer inhumanity. But it also harms Americans in very real ways. Who will want to study or come work here in this climate? Just one example, nearly 25% of practicing doctors in the United States are international medical graduates, demonstrates how this harms our own future prospects.

Americans continue to rise to the moment in ways both big and small. In Boston, residents posted information about handling encounters with ICE agents.

The Supreme Court

The Trump administration now has a number of cases pending on the Supreme Court’s docket as they seek to get out from under injunctions.

In the case out of Northern California, the Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals declined to interfere with Federal Judge William Alsup’s order that forces the Trump administration to rehire probationary employees it had fired. The Justice Department appealed that order on the administration’s behalf. A response is due Thursday.

The administration has already appealed multiple cases involving Trump’s effort to strike birthright citizenship out of the Fourteenth Amendment, but the Court wasn’t in a hurry to decide those cases, which may not bode well for the administration, although the arguments focus more on the sustainability of nationwide injunctions issued by one judge than they do on the substantive issue of birthright citizenship. A response is due in those cases on Friday.

The coming week could also bring action in a case involving Department of Education grants, where briefs were filed last week, and in the Alien Enemies case, where most of the speculation that we will get an early take on how the Court views the new administration’s conduct is focused. The plaintiffs’ response to the government’s petition is due on Tuesday, and it focuses on two of the issues we’ve previously discussed, whether the case should be dismissed since the lawsuit was filed in Washington, D.C., not in Texas where the plaintiffs were in custody, and whether a judge can issue a nationwide injunction on this matter. Some common themes emerge!

So far, the courts have been holding. But many of us are holding our breath to see if that continues when Trump gets back to the Supreme Court. Attorney General Pam Bondi had this comment, suggesting she expects a friendly bench when they get there, “We are going to fight back, and we are going to win, and the Supreme Court will be ready to hear these cases again.” After the presidential address to Congress last month, Trump shook Chief Justice John Roberts’ hand and said, “Thank you again. Thank you again. Won’t forget it.” The question is whether the Supreme Court, or at least a majority of the Justices, are ready to. It’s time for them to follow the law, not pander to the President.

We’re in this together,

Joyce

POLITICO Nightly: Trump’s tactics go global

By Catherine Kim South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol takes questions during a press conference on state affairs on November 7, 2024 in Seoul. | Pool photo by Kim Hong-Ji. THE NEW AMERICAN EXPORT — The U.S. has long exported its cultural products to South Korea, flexing its soft power within the country through Hollywood products and academic exchanges. It now appears to be exporting something different — Donald Trump’s politics of defiance and norm-breaking. President Yoon Suk Yeol, the country’s politically troubled leader, is increasingly utilizing the American president-elect’s legal and political tactics in a desperate attempt to evade the consequences of a botched attempt to impose martial law in December. Although the imposition of martial law — declared out of frustration against an opposition party that had slashed his budget plans and impeached his allies — lasted less than six hours, the move has thrown the country into political unrest. Yoon ended up getting impeached by the National Assembly and stripped of his presidential powers, and his fate remains in the hands of the Constitutional Court, which will review the decision in the coming months. Meanwhile, Yoon is under criminal investigation for insurrection, and a warrant has been issued to detain him. Yet he’s been resisting arrest by blocking off the entrance to his residence with his security personnel. As he remains hidden from the public eye, he and his legal team have increasingly grown bolder in their attacks against the legal system and the opposition party and their attempts to dodge accountability — moves that closely resemble Trump’s tactics when he was accused of insurrection. This isn’t the first time a parallel between Yoon and Trump has been made: When Yoon first took office in 2022, some had called him the “Trump of Korea” because of his reputation for speaking off the cuff and promises of populist policies that were meant to recruit young male voters unhappy with their lack of upward mobility. Yoon’s most blatant attempt to trace Trump’s path is his use of the U.S. Supreme Court’s immunity ruling for his own defense. In July, the Supreme Court granted presidents broad immunity for official acts while in office — a decision that gave Trump leverage against the charges of attempting to overturn the 2020 election. Under that same logic, Yoon argues that his martial law declaration was within his constitutional rights as president and immune to prosecution. While it isn’t uncommon for lawyers to bring up rulings from other nations in their defense, it’s unlikely it will hold much weight in court: South Korea’s Constitution has made it clear that sitting presidents are not immune to insurrection or treason charges. Yoon’s more effective legal and political move, however, appears to be the claims of election fraud. Trump sowed doubt about his 2020 loss by questioning the election’s legitimacy and using it as a justification for radical action. Those conspiracy theories have become a powerful glue that have bonded his supporters together. And while far-right Korean conspiracy theorists have raised doubts about elections in the past — especially after the general election in April that handed a massive win to the opposition party — Yoon is now channeling that sentiment into questions about the legitimacy of the National Assembly and framing himself as a savior. “How can the public trust election results when the computer system that manages elections, the core of democracy, is so sloppy?” Yoon said in a public speech just days after his martial law declaration as a means of justification. In response, Yoon’s most dedicated supporters have waved signs saying “Stop the Steal” in pro-Yoon rallies — a nod to the MAGA movement’s rallying cry and the historically strong alliance between American and Korean conservatives, which dates back to the Korean War and the fight against communism. “They just refuse to make the connections between their own kind of conspiratorial beliefs and reality. Just the inability to do that, I think, is the real parallel,” said Karl Friedhoff, an Asia studies fellow at the Chicago Council on Global Affairs. Yoon and his supporters wouldn’t be the only ones to draw lessons in resistance from Trump. In Brazil, thousands of former President Jair Bolsonaro’s supporters attacked official buildings in the country’s capital after he lost reelection in 2022, drawing close comparisons to the Jan. 6 Capitol attacks led by Trump followers. For those watching from the U.S., it all seems too familiar. “The best case scenario is that [Yoon] slowly starts to peel his supporters back from their support for impeachment,” said Friedhoff. “There will be consequences, but he’s certainly going to try to delay them for as long as possible.” If Yoon’s rhetoric — the kind that offers a sinister view of the political establishment and presents himself as the solution — seems familiar, it may be because it so closely resembles Trump’s own dark framing. In his speech declaring martial law , Yoon called the country a “drug paradise,” the National Assembly “a den of criminals” and concluded that “Korea faces a fate that is never strange even if it collapses immediately” — charged words that echo Trump’s declarations that the U.S. is a “failing nation” and the left is “crooked” and treasonous. And like MAGA supporters, Yoon’s base has been riled up by the president’s words, parroting his claims while taking to the streets in protest against his arrest. Yoon, however, may not have the same political staying power as Trump, despite all the parallels: He isn’t an inspiring orator and doesn’t have the same hold over his followers, said S. Nathan Park, a non-resident fellow at the Quincy Institute for Responsible Statecraft following Korean politics. “He doesn’t have a good way out,” Park said. “He might get arrested soon. He might get arrested later, but I just do not see how he can avoid being removed from the office.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at ckim@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @ck_525 . What'd I Miss? — Large swath of Senate Dems vote to advance GOP’s immigration bill: Senate Democrats overwhelmingly helped advance the GOP’s first bill to address illegal immigration today, a signal the legislation could pass next week. Only nine Democrats voted against moving forward on the legislation, and even party leaders like Minority Leader Chuck Schumer and Minority Whip Dick Durbin (Ill.) voted to advance it. However, some of those Democrats have pushed to make amendments to the bill — something Republicans are unlikely to allow — so its prospects for passage are still unclear. — Congress could wait until mid-March to consider new wildfire aid: Congress may not consider new aid for California to deal with its devastating spate of wildfires until mid-March , when Capitol Hill faces its next government funding deadline. Lawmakers see March 14 — the spending deadline — as the next chance to address any emergencies that may need congressional cash, including the blazes sweeping through Los Angeles County. House Majority Leader Steve Scalise (R-La.) said they’d address it in that negotiation, not in an upcoming budget reconciliation bill. — Federal judge vacates Biden’s Title IX rule: A federal judge blocked the Biden administration’s new Title IX rule nationwide , crushing its efforts to strengthen discrimination protections based on sexual orientation and gender identity. Eastern District of Kentucky Court Chief Judge Danny Reeves in an order today said the regulation on Title IX, the federal law that bars sex-based discrimination, is unlawful. He said the rule is “arbitrary and capricious” and violates the spending clause and the First Amendment, among other issues. THE NEXT ADMINISTRATION A DEM IN MAR-A-LAGO — Sen. John Fetterman (D-Pa.) is planning to meet with President-elect Donald Trump at Mar-a-Lago, the first Democrat in the upper chamber to publicly make the trek after the 2024 election . Fetterman said that Trump invited him and he accepted. The meeting is expected to take place this weekend, according to a person familiar with the plans. “I’m the Senator for all Pennsylvanians — not just Democrats in Pennsylvania,” he said in a statement, confirming news first reported by CBS. “I’ve been clear that no one is my gatekeeper. I will meet with and have a conversation with anyone if it helps me deliver for Pennsylvania and the nation.” DATE SET — The Senate Finance Committee is expected to hold a confirmation hearing with President-elect Donald Trump’s nominee for Treasury Secretary, Scott Bessent, on Jan. 16 , according to three people familiar with the committee’s plans, granted anonymity to share the details. After the committee hearing, Bessent’s nomination would be teed up for an executive session where lawmakers could report him out for confirmation by the full Senate. AROUND THE WORLD Opposition leader Maria Corina Machado looks on with a hand on her chest during a protest against the result of the presidential election on July 30, 2024 in Caracas, Venezuela. | Alfredo Lasry R/Getty Images OPPOSITION LEADER ARRESTED — Venezuela opposition leader Maria Corina Machado was arrested today when her motorcycle convoy was fired upon by security forces as it departed an anti-government protest in Caracas, according to aides, The Associated Press reports. Machado emerged from months of hiding earlier today to reappear in public as part of a last-ditch attempt to block President Nicolás Maduro from clinging to power. Machado’s press team said in a social media post that security forces “violently intercepted” the convoy as it was leaving eastern Caracas. There were no immediate details on her whereabouts and Maduro’s government has yet to comment. COALITION OF THE WILLING — Top European Union diplomat Kaja Kallas said today the EU would be ready to take the lead on supporting Ukraine if the United States was no longer willing. “I’m really sure that all the other members, and hopefully also the United States, are ready to continue with the support to Ukraine,” Kallas said on her way to a gathering of Ukraine allies in Ramstein, Germany, according to AFP. “The European Union is also ready to take over this leadership if the United States is not willing to,” she said. Kallas’ comments stand in contrast to those of her predecessor, Josep Borrell, who said last year that “Europe cannot fill the gap” when it comes to supporting Ukraine. Ukraine and its allies are waiting for Donald Trump’s inauguration as U.S. president on Jan. 20 to see whether Washington will keep backing Kyiv. MEET THE PRESS — Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni faced a two-hour grilling from the Italian press today, covering a range of issues from her support for Ukraine to a full-throated defense of United States President-elect Donald Trump and his tech billionaire pal Elon Musk. The PM has often had an antagonistic relationship with the media, having attacked left-wing newspapers, sued journalists and introduced a so-called gagging law preventing the publication of information about arrests and investigations. POLITICO has takeaways from the call here . Nightly Number $110 million The amount of money that Kentucky will receive to settle a lawsuit accusing The Kroger Co., one of the nation’s biggest grocery chains, of helping fuel the opioid epidemic. excerpt:  With Kentucky putting the settlement money toward prevention and recovery efforts, the company has “agreed to become part of the solution,” the Republican attorney general added. Coleman’s office sued Ohio-based Kroger last February, claiming its pharmacies helped fuel the opioid crisis. The suit, filed in state court, alleged that Kroger accumulated about 444 million doses of opioids to distribute in Kentucky between 2006 and 2019, amounting to 11% of all opioid pills sold in the state during that time. “But most shockingly, there was ... no internal, serious system in place at Kroger to track or report suspicious activities,” Coleman said Thursday. “No trainings for staff. No guidelines to prevent abuse.” RADAR SWEEP SLOWING IT DOWN — Everyone has their own pace when they’re walking through a museum. Some people are interested in speeding through, looking for particular works of art or galleries that attracted them in the first place. Others take on a sort of ambling walk, not looking at much of anything in particular but just taking in the surroundings. Now, though, some museums are explicitly inviting people to slow down. Partnering with the Mindful Museum Campaign, museums around the world are building dedicated downloadable meditations for parts of galleries . People who follow that lead might be guided through a 15-minute meditation while looking at a specific piece of art. It’s a way to use museums as a relaxation aid — but does it help people better understand or appreciate what they’re seeing? Laura Hall reports for the BBC. Parting Image On this date in 1969: Apollo 8 astronauts appear at a news conference in Washington after being feted at the White House, a parade down Pennsylvania Ave., and an appearance before a joint session of Congress. From left: Frank Borman, James Lovell Jr., William Anders. | AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh   Follow us

POLITICO, LLC 1000 Wilson Blvd. Arlington, VA, 22209, USA

 

Washington's (not so) strong man in Seoul is defying arrest Ahead of Donald Trump's return to the White House, Yoon Suk Yeol's thwarted martial-law decree has thrown South Korea and the surrounding region into chaos In Jeong Kim Jan 3 ∙ Guest post On January 3, three days after a South Korean court issued an arrest warrant for suspended president Yoon Suk Yeol on charges of leading an insurrection and abusing authority, investigators from the Corruption Investigation Office went to the presidential residence to execute the warrant—the first against a sitting president in Korean history. When investigators tried to arrest Yoon, they were confronted by hundreds of his supporters who had camped out to shield him. Following a dramatic five-hour standoff with the presidential security team, who had formed a “human wall” to block the path to Yoon, the investigators eventually retreated. The warrant remains valid until January 6. What the Biden administration knew of Yoon’s plan to declare martial law on December 3 remains unclear. “We learned about this from the announcement on television, the same way the rest of the world did,” Jake Sullivan, President Joe Biden’s national security advisor, said on December 4 during an event hosted by the Center for Strategic and International Studies. While that may be true, skepticism of Sullivan’s claim seems warranted. To help counter the threat posed by a nuclear-armed North Korea, 28,500 U.S. troops are based in South Korea through U.S. Forces Korea; the countries’ intelligence services also maintain close ties. Drop Site News is a reader-supported publication. To receive new posts and support my work, consider becoming a free or paid subscriber. Experts believe Yoon’s attempt to invoke martial law came in response to intensifying political pressure. Members of the political opposition had been pushing for budget cuts and calling for the impeachment of the chief state auditor and top prosecutors in connection with probes into the relocation of the presidential office and allegations of involvement in stock price manipulation surrounding Yoon’s wife. Members from the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) participate in a protest against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on January 03, 2025 in Seoul, South Korea. / Chung Sung-Jun / Getty Images Emerging evidence also suggests Yoon’s power grab had been in the works for some time. According to statements made during a subsequent investigation, the prosecution has obtained testimony suggesting that Yoon attended several gatherings over the past year with military leaders who would later take part in the plot, in which he raised the subject of martial law. In private conversations Yoon reportedly had mentioned certain “problematic” individuals whose names later appeared on an arrest list prepared for the former chief of counterintelligence by Yoon’s then-defense minister. The list included the leader of the opposition Democratic Party, a journalist critical of Yoon’s administration, and one-time ally and ruling party leader Han Dong-hoon, who fell afoul of Yoon after backing an investigation into the allegations against the First Lady. North Korea also appears to have figured into Yoon’s plans. He had reportedly embraced a far-right conspiracy theory that hackers from the north had interfered with South Korea’s parliamentary elections last year, in which his ruling People Power Party lost seats. Ahead of the martial-law decree, Yoon’s then-defense minister allegedly instructed military intelligence officials to infiltrate the commission’s headquarters, kidnap its staff using cable ties and hoods, and detain them in an underground military facility. Conspiracy theories aside, the National Intelligence Service has found no evidence of election fraud. Yoon and his co-plotters may have also sought to incite Kim Jong Un. Since the thwarted coup, authorities have discovered evidence in the notebook of one of the coup plotters suggesting a plan to provoke North Korea into conflict at the Northern Limit Line—the de facto maritime boundary and military demarcation line between North Korea and South Korea—which police suspect was intended to create a pretext for declaring martial law and seizing power. Korean military officials have neither confirmed nor denied suspicions of drone infiltration. “It is not true that the military conducted activities to provoke the enemy,” Colonel Lee Sung-jun, spokesperson for the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said in a press briefing on January 2. Whatever Yoon’s motivations may have been, he appeared ready to use lethal force on the night of his decree. According to the Ministry of National Defense, around 10,000 live rounds of ammunition were made available to the 1,500 troops ordered to enforce the order, along with machine guns, sniper rifles, pistols, and hollow-point shotgun slugs, which are banned under the Rome Statute of the International Criminal Court. Even an elite division of special forces troops, trained for clandestine guerrilla operations and tasked with assassinating key North Korean figures during wartime, was deployed for the coup, according to a top defense official. Bloodshed was averted thanks to the courageous actions of Koreans. In the dead of night, thousands of citizens rushed to block the military in front of the National Assembly, as opposition lawmakers quickly climbed the building's restricted walls to intervene. “After a few moments of disbelief and hesitation as I heard the news of martial law being declared, I felt I had to go to the National Assembly,” Daehoon Lee, one of the citizens who rushed to the assembly gates on the night of December 3, told Drop Site News. “If chaos broke out, I thought the least I could do was help evacuate people or assist the injured.” On December 14, the National Assembly narrowly passed a motion to impeach Yoon. Demands for Yoon’s impeachment also led to the removal of Acting President Han Duck-soo, who refused to fill three vacant seats on the Constitutional Court, which will decide whether to permanently remove Yoon from office. Choi Sang-mok, who succeeded Han as acting president, appointed candidates to fill two of the three vacancies on December 31, pledging to fill the remaining seats once the ruling and opposition parties could agree on the nominees. The decision to remove Yoon will require agreement from at least six justices, including the newly appointed members. (The opposition Democratic Party is pushing to finalize the impeachment trial after filling the vacancies.) If the court upholds the impeachment, Yoon will become the second conservative president in South Korean history to be ousted, following former President Park Geun-hye. Even amid mounting pressure, Yoon’s People Power Party continues to back him, warning that if he were permanently impeached, the party would likely struggle to win the next presidential election. Despite a poll revealing 75% of citizens supported his impeachment, the party collectively boycotted the first impeachment vote and officially opposed the second—yet it failed to prevent 12 of its own members from defecting. “Go with who’s winning" Washington has long favored conservative South Korean presidents as security partners, often turning a blind eye to human rights violations. In 1979, former President Park Chung-hee, who ruled South Korea for 18 years with the support of the U.S. after seizing power in a military coup, was assassinated in a plot led by Kim Jae Kyu, the head of the Korean Central Intelligence Agency. At his trial, Kim would later claim that he had sought to rid the country of dictatorship and foster democracy. But democracy would be stalled yet again by Park’s successor, military dictator Chun Doo-hwan, who seized power in a rolling coup that began in December 12, 1979, culminating with a declaration of martial law on May 17, 1980. That month, citizens in Gwangju, a southern city of South Korea, rose up in resistance; in response, Chun ordered a brutal crackdown in which martial-law troops slaughtered 166 citizens, forcibly disappeared another 179, and wounded 2,617. In the years after the massacre, once-secret U.S. government documents later showed that the U.S. Defense Intelligence Agency and the State Department had prior knowledge of paratrooper movements to Gwangju and other cities but did nothing to stop them. Instead, the Carter administration, citing the protection of U.S. national security interests, approved U.S. surveillance and command-and-control assistance to Chun's forces to help them snuff out the uprising in South Cholla province. Members from the Korean Confederation of Trade Unions (KCTU) scuffle with police officers during a protest against impeached President Yoon Suk Yeol on January 03, 2025 in Seoul, South Korea / Chung Sung-Jun/Getty Images In a crucial meeting at the White House on May 22, 1980, hours after learning that Chun's forces had shot over 60 people to death and wounded 400 people in Gwangju's streets, then-Secretary of Defense Harold Brown said the U.S. had no choice but to help the Korean military restore order. “Koreans will go with who’s winning," he remarked, according to the then-Deputy Assistant Secretary. He added: “If Chun is in the Blue House, we will have to accept him.” The general and the Korean military were finally forced to relinquish control in another massive show of people power in 1987. Independent journalist Tim Shorrock obtained a collection of 4,000 declassified documents that revealed the Carter administration’s complicity with Chun. “One of the most immoral acts of Carter’s presidency was to back Chun’s martial law army to suppress the Gwangju Uprising of 1980,” Shorrock said. While South Korea officially recognized Gwangju as a legitimate uprising that paved the way for its democratization, “Carter never offered a formal apology for being on the wrong side of Korea’s struggle against military rule,” he added. “The memory of the 1980 Gwangju Massacre triggered a wave of panic and auditory hallucinations when I heard military helicopters approaching,” protestor Daehoon Lee said. “But, to my surprise, the military’s armored vehicles were blocked by citizens and forced to turn back. For the first time, I began to believe that we might actually be able to stop this coup.” “We are guests” A former prosecutor without any prior political experience, Yoon won the presidency in 2022 by only 0.8% over Lee Jae-myung of the Democratic Party. Halfway through his five-year term, Yoon’s support base collapsed, thanks in part to his promotion of “anti-feminism,” suppression of critical media outlets, and unrelenting scandals surrounding the first lady. By the time of Yoon’s suspension, a Gallup poll revealed that his approval rating had plummeted to 11%, its lowest level since he took office. Yet Yoon remained a favorite of Washington. Known for his sharp rhetoric against North Korea and for delivering a rousing rendition of Don McLean's “American Pie” during a state visit to the White House, Yoon was seen in Korea as “Biden’s man.” Dating back to the Obama administration, the U.S. had sought a trilateral military alliance with South Korea and Japan—and Yoon was eager to help. Yoon chose not to push the Japanese government for reparations over the comfort women, the estimated 200,000 girls and women, mostly South Koreans, who were forced into sexual slavery by Japanese soldiers during World War II. In August of 2023 Yoon’s strategy paid off with the Camp David Declaration, in which leaders of the U.S., Japan, and South Korea announced the formation of a security pact to counter North Korea and China. In the wake of Yoon’s attempted coup, the White House responded with notable restraint. Biden's official response came only after the passage of the impeachment motion. During a call with former acting President and Prime Minister Han Duck-soo, Biden praised the resiliency of South Korea’s democracy and reaffirmed “the ironclad commitment” of the U.S., while notably neglecting to criticize the coup attempt. Some analysts believe that the United States had at least some awareness of Yoon’s plans, even through unofficial channels. Chun Kwang-ho, a specialist in military strategy and former professor at the Defense Academy of the United Kingdom, said it was unlikely that the U.S. had specific intelligence about Yoon’s plans. But reports from October of South Korean drones flying over Pyongyang likely suggested to U.S. officials that South Korea was deliberately escalating military tensions with North Korea, he added. On December 4, the day after the martial-law decree, U.S. Forces Korea urged caution. “We are guests in the Republic of Korea, and I ask all individuals affiliated with the Department of Defense mission to give time and space to our host country and its citizens, as they work to resolve their differences,” General Paul J. LaCamera, commander of United Nations Command, Combined Forces Command, and U.S. Forces Korea, said in a Guidance for the Force statement. Chun said that this cautious stance “might stem from the trauma of failing to prevent the December 12 coup in 1979.” Following the martial-law decree, data on reconnaissance-plane flight paths across South Korea and its surroundings suggest the U.S. was keeping close watch. For eight consecutive days after Yoon’s declaration, two RC-135S Cobra Ball aircraft, which the U.S. uses to monitor missile trajectories, were tracked flying over the Korean Peninsula, according to the aircraft tracking service Flightradar24. RC-135V/W Rivet Joint reconnaissance planes, which are used for real-time, on-scene intelligence collection, were also tracked flying over the Seoul metropolitan area, the Yellow Sea, and the East Sea on three separate occasions in December. Reflecting on the aftermath of the failed coup, Chun noted, “Even four weeks later, USFK remains in a state of heightened caution, which is highly unusual.” U.S. Forces Korea did not respond to requests for comment regarding the events on the day martial law was declared. “The U.S. usually prefers right-wing or centrist governments, but the overall concern of the U.S. government is stability,” said Don Baker, a professor of Korean history and civilization at the University of British Columbia. “If Yoon had been successful in carrying out his coup without much resistance, the U.S. would not have objected. However, once it was clear that the National Assembly and the people were resisting the coup, the U.S. decided not to support him and instead hoped for a quick resolution to this political crisis,” he added. “The U.S. usually prefers right-wing or centrist governments, but the overall concern of the U.S. government is stability” U.S. Deputy Secretary of State Kurt Campbell, who had previously condemned Yoon’s martial law declaration as “deeply problematic” and “illegitimate,” adopted a more measured tone following his impeachment. “It’s clearly in the interest of the United States to sustain forward momentum in trilateral engagement despite some domestic headwinds,” Campbell said on December 19 at an event at the Foreign Press Center in Washington, D.C. Trump’s Response How Donald Trump will respond to events in South Korea is unclear. He may be indifferent to Yoon’s fate: Notably, Yoon chose not to meet with Donald Trump Jr., during his two visits to South Korea last year. While Trump has nominated ambassadors to China and Japan, the post for ambassador to South Korea remains vacant. On December 14, he announced via a post on Truth Social that he would be appointing his confidant Richard Grenell as a special envoy to North Korea. In his first post-election press conference on December 16, the president-elect discussed North Korea, China, and Japan, but not South Korea. In a recent interview with Time, Trump said his relationship with Kim Jong Un positions him to handle North Korea’s reported involvement in the Russia-Ukraine conflict, but made no reference to Yoon or South Korea. Trump has long been a critic of Washington’s relationships with east Asian nations. Defense cost-sharing and the partial withdrawal of U.S. troops from South Korea are likely to emerge as major points of contention. He has frequently complained about the high costs of U.S. defense commitments in South Korea and Japan, arguing that Seoul should pay $10 billion a year to host U.S. troops. With Trump’s return to the White House and ongoing turmoil in the South, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un is treading carefully. During the annual meeting of the ruling Workers’ Party held from December 23 to 27, Kim described the U.S. as “the most reactionary state that regards anti-communism as its invariable state policy” and vowed to adopt the “toughest” anti-U.S. measures, though he did not elaborate on the specifics, according to the official Korean Central News Agency. Experts suggested that with tensions already high, Pyongyang sees little strategic advantage in escalating the situation further. Amid its backing of Russia’s war in Ukraine—an alliance that could complicate future dialogue with the United States—Kim appears to be making a calculated diplomatic move, strategically biding its time. “Why aren’t they afraid of us?” In the end, Yoon sought to bolster ties with international allies while failing to gain a domestic foothold, leaving chaos in his wake. If his impeachment is confirmed, his successor will inherit the formidable task of restoring internal stability and reclaiming South Korea’s strategic regional role. For Koreans, thwarting Yoon served as both a reminder both of their collective power as well as the limits of that power. Ahead of the impeachment vote, a protest of two million people, spearheaded by young women in their 20s and 30s, filled the streets in front of the National Assembly. Outraged citizens sent funeral wreaths bearing sharp criticism of the People Power Party, a symbolic protest declaring the death of trust in the party. “The fact that girls are becoming more visible as political subjects is, I’m sure, empowering for many women,” said Kyunghee Eo, 40, a protester. Following the impeachment vote, citizens standing in the bitter cold in front of the National Assembly to protest Yoon erupted in cheers, chanting for the dissolution of his People Power Party for its overwhelming opposition to the motion. “My voice was hoarse from chanting slogans, but I couldn’t stop,” said Jinseon Yu, a 32-year-old protester. “We were happy, of course. But the number—96 votes, including objections, abstentions, and invalid ballots—kept haunting me. It made me question, again and again: Who do these representatives actually serve? Why aren’t they afraid of us, the people?” In Jeong Kim is a South Korean investigative journalist and non-fiction writer based in San Francisco. Formerly a staff reporter for MBC-Gwangju, she covered the Gwangju Uprising, helping uncover the truths behind one of Korea’s most pivotal historical events. In 2023, she published Spectating Pain, an exploration of the ethical challenges in documenting human suffering. A guest post by In Jeong Kim Hi, I am a South Korean investigative journalist and non-fiction writer based in San Francisco.