04 November 20
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Dan Rather | As Long as I Have Breath, I Will Continue to Fight for America
Dan Rather, Dan Rather's Facebook Page
Rather writes: "We awaken to a country in pain, deeply divided, and in search of its soul."
That we have an election with razor-thin margins in several states is not a complete anomaly in our history. That the chasms between us feel so fraught and so alienating does feel uniquely precarious;.
There was no wave, although if the votes turn out in a certain way in the final counting Biden could win a healthy number of states. And let's start with a basic fact this morning: a Biden presidency is a completely different destiny for America than a continuation of what we've had. And there seems a fair - maybe even good - chance that he will prevail in the Electoral College.
Although there are potentially dangerous days ahead, I remain optimistic. I don't think that the worst fears of violence or stopping the vote count will be realized. I believe our institutions will hold.
The question that does loom is what's next? Why did so many support Trump with all that he has done? I don't think there is a single answer to that question. At the same time, one can also ask why did so many vote to reject an incumbent president? That has proven a difficult bar in American history. There are many answers to that question as well.
I don't minimize the challenges we are facing. The struggle for justice and the truth seems more difficult than many had hoped. But that doesn't lessen the importance of the mission. Quite the contrary. I know many are tired, disappointed, and in disbelief. Many wonder what their country truly is and where it might go. All of these are natural reactions to where America is today. But I have seen over the course of my lifetime that victories are rarely easy and the struggle for healing and hope takes time and perseverance, because the forces of hate and lies are always easier to summon.
There is a lot that is broken, deeply broken. But there are millions upon millions of our fellow citizens who wake up each morning, undaunted, ready to do the hard work to help others and make this world a better place. Today, I honor that spirit. As long as I have breath, I will continue to fight for the America I want to live in.
Trump supporters in Tulsa, Oklahoma. (photo: Evan Vucci/AP)
Trump's Rallies Are Scientifically Proven Murder and Mayhem
Harvey Wasserman, Reader Supported News
Wasserman writes: "Donald Trump's 'superspreader' rallies have killed at least 700 people, infecting as many as 30,000 Americans while hospitalizing thousands."
That’s the conclusion of a major nonpartisan scientific study conducted at Stanford University.
And that’s not all. His gatherings, like his presidency, are everywhere defined by mishap and mayhem.
Most spectacular was a September “boat parade” staged by hard-core supporters on Lake Travis, near Austin, Texas. It was, said organizer Steve Salinas, 42, “one way that Trump supporters can get out and express themselves without causing too much trouble or congestion in streets.”
The enthusiastic Trumpists bedecked their cruisers, yachts, speedboats and dinghies with banners, flags, posters, and horns beeping.
But they failed to account for the cacophonous wake patterns created by the tightly grouped armada. Kristen Dark of the Travis County Sheriff’s Office explained: “We had an exceptional number of boats on the lake today. When they all started moving at the same time, it generated significant waves.”
While his avid supporters yelled and cheered, five boats were swamped. No one was reported hurt. But an unknown number of Trumpites had to be rescued from the water. Three of the sunken ships were eventually brought back to the surface.
Waves from a Trump boat parade in Oregon also sank an “innocent bystander” vessel.
At an October 27 rally, hundreds of supporters were shuttled into Omaha’s Eppley Airfield to wait in freezing temperatures for a Trump rant. But after he flew out at 9 pm, the buses did not return. The stranded crowd – many of them elderly – was stuck for nearly three hours.
Some walked miles back to their cars. Others did not make it out until near midnight. Numerous elders required emergency medical attention; at least two were hospitalized.
A high-speed Trump caravan of trucks and vans has just surrounded a Biden campaign bus on a crowded Texas highway, trying to slow it down and force it off the road. The freeway terrorists caused at least one minor moving collision. To Trump’s apparent approval, the caravan forced the Biden campaign to cancel multiple events.
In September, a Trump rally blocked the entrance to a Fairfax, Virginia voting center. Most wore no masks, “weaponizing” the virus by forcibly violating social distancing with those coming to vote.
Armed Trump-supporting militia also plotted to kidnap Michigan governor Gretchen Whitmer. Trump has refused to condemn such activity, merely asking the violent white supremacist Proud Boys to “stand back and stand by.”
As millions of Americans vote early and by mail, the expected assault by such self-proclaimed Nazis on long lines of citizens waiting to vote has been scattered. In some cases, it has been avoided by the use of sports arenas as voting centers, allowing large numbers of voters to come inside, protected from guns and physical intimidation.
But on November 3rd, as tens of millions of Americans swarm together for the last day of voting, Trump’s gun-toting supporters may rally in threatening force. Trump long ago pledged $20 million to hire 50,000 supporters. Many of them are expected to come armed to precincts where his opponents are most likely to vote.
To avoid such problems, more than 127,000 Texans have already deposited their ballots from their cars, in election-board approved “drive-by voting.”
But Texas Republicans are in federal court trying to have those ballots thrown out, effectively disenfranchising enough voters to turn the state and the nation.
The challenge is in the heavily Democratic Harris County (Houston). The drive-through procedures were approved by the Texas secretary of state. Previous challenges were turned down by the all-Republican state supreme court. But if Trump can get the case to his conservative US Supreme Court, it could throw out enough votes to give him another murderous term.
Meanwhile, without that and other safe, social-distanced options, this election could turn on whether democracy activists can guard voters from Trump militias armed with both guns and the maskless exhalations of this virus.
Fittingly, Trump’s own White House rallies and receptions – including one for his recent Supreme Court nominee, Amy Barrett – have helped spread deadly mayhem. Trump, his immediate family, much of his staff, and many Congressional colleagues have all been stricken. Longtime right-wing associate Herman Cain has died.
Numerous members of VP Mike Pence’s staff are now infected, but Pence has refused to cancel his rallies. He is still widely photographed maskless.
The Stanford study has now shown such arrogant irresponsibility can be lethal on a mass scale. The researchers linked 18 of Trump’s packed, massless rallies to some 30,000 avoidable COVID-19 cases. At least 700 deaths and numerous hospitalizations resulted.
“Our analysis strongly supports the warnings and recommendations of public health officials concerning the risk of COVID-19 transmission at large group gatherings, particularly when the degree of compliance with guidelines concerning the use of masks and social distancing is low,” the researchers wrote. “The communities in which Trump rallies took place paid a high price in terms of disease and death.”
At least two of the rallies were indoors, and at least two occurred in swing-state Wisconsin, already hammered with virus deaths. Numerous COVID cases have also been tracked to long primary voter lines there this past April.
No doubt as Trump crowed early this morning over his alleged “victory,” he endangered his closest family and supporters at least as intensely as his rallies and gatherings have hammered his MAGA followers.
For the nation as a whole, as well as for thousands of unfortunate individuals who cross his path, the end of Trump’s ghastly Keystone Cops campaign – and presidency – can clearly mean the difference between life and death.
Harvey Wasserman co-convenes the Grassroots Emergency Election Protection Coalition, whose Monday zoom calls will continue after November 3rd (www.grassrootsep.org). His People’s Spiral of US History awaits Trump’s departure at www.solartopia.org.
Reader Supported News is the Publication of Origin for this work. Permission to republish is freely granted with credit and a link back to Reader Supported News.
Election judges Yvonne Latuff, left, and Eliza Mark hang an American flag outside a polling place before it opens on Tuesday in Hampton, Minnesota. (photo: Stephen Maturen/Getty)
Reverend William Barber, Sarah Smarsh, Cori Bush, Sara Amora and Nikayla Jefferson | No Matter Who Wins the US Election, Here Are Reasons to Be Hopeful
Reverend William Barber, Sarah Smarsh, Cori Bush, Sara Amora and Nikayla Jefferson, Guardian UK
Excerpt: "This is not 2016. Donald Trump is not a reality TV star barnstorming the country with fresh promises to revive local economies and vanquish every imagined enemy."
Ahead of the election result writers highlight the political positives at a crucial juncture in US history
illiam J Barber II: ‘We must remember our power’
As the world watches US election results come in, many people are anxious that national polls which have shown Joe Biden with a sizable lead for months will once again be shattered by a last-minute comeback from Donald Trump..
But this is not 2016. Donald Trump is not a reality TV star barnstorming the country with fresh promises to revive local economies and vanquish every imagined enemy. He is an impeached president whose record is a failed response to a global pandemic that has left America grieving unnecessary deaths and struggling to survive in an economy where the richest have seen their wealth increase while everyday Americans face eviction, hunger and loss of healthcare. However strong Trump may look to himself and his adoring crowds, he is politically weak.
Yes, Republicans have engaged in extreme efforts to suppress votes and will fight in court for days to come to have legitimately cast ballots thrown out. We who know that a dying mule always kicks the hardest must be vigilant. But we cannot forget our power.
Nearly 100 million Americans had already voted before polls opened this morning, promising a historic turnout. Of those who already voted in 2020, a quarter did not cast a ballot in 2016. Despite long lines and barriers that were designed to deter them, Americans are marching to the voting booth in 2020 as a broader and more diverse electorate than this nation has ever seen. With this demonstration of power, we have the capacity to not only elect new leadership, but also to demand that Democrats and Republicans address the needs of everyday Americans.
The Rev Dr William Barber is the co-chair of the Poor People’s Campaign and author of We Are Called to Be a Movement
Sarah Smarsh: ‘White working-class women are waking up’
I have an aunt who has turned over a bright new leaf in her 60s: where previously she waved off the election process as a rigged waste of time, she now is heavily invested in our political moment. A Democrat in a Republican-majority state, she had long felt that the electoral college meant her vote didn’t count in national elections. In recent years, though, she follows the news, eagerly discusses politics and votes with gusto.
In her home state of Kansas, which today has a Democratic governor and a neck-and-neck race for US Senate, an October poll showed Trump’s lead had shrunk to single digits from 20 points in 2016. Trump will likely win the state again, but local elections are in play for Democrats as “red” states across the country show signs of transformation.
Perhaps sensing that she is part of that shift, my aunt recently told me that her one regret in life was not having paid attention to politics sooner.
To my mind, it was not apathy but the unrelenting trials of her life – born into poverty and abuse, a single mother by age 15, decades in the underpaid food-preparation industry – that kept her sidelined in our democracy. Regardless, she takes responsibility for her actions, or lack thereof.
When my aunt told me about this one regret, it occurred to me that she, a real pistol with strong convictions who could argue you into the ground with a Bud Light in one hand and a smoke in the other, would have made a fine government official had she been born into better opportunities. Instead, her voice and so many like it were drowned out by the deafening grind of capitalism’s gears.
Today my aunt lives in a three-generation, biracial household and takes care of her grandson while her fortysomething daughter works at Target. She is pro-choice, anti-The Man. What woke her up to her own power, in large part? Witnessing Donald Trump’s ascent and despising everything he represents.
Polls have shown erosion of support for Trump among white working-class women. However, millions of white, working-class, eligible voters never voted at all – and should not be presumed conservative.
They are voting now. From my vantage, an inordinate number of liberally minded white working-class women, specifically, have decided against all messages to the contrary that their voices should be heard and that their votes might count. There is too much at stake to think otherwise.
Cori Bush: ‘We are ready’
In the face of so much fear, hate and anger, many ask me where I find my strength. The answer is simple: I know that we are ready for this moment. Trump’s corrupt and incompetent presidency has only created division, while progressives are united together for change. Under the rallying cries of “political revolution” and “not me, us”, Senator Bernie Sanders inspired millions. In 2018, record numbers of women of color ran for office, including four trailblazers who shook the nation: Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez, Ilhan Omar, Ayanna Pressley and Rashida Tlaib.
This year, Jamaal Bowman, Mondaire Jones and I campaigned with an unapologetically progressive agenda – Medicare for All, a Green New Deal, free higher education, canceling student debt, and protecting unions – all within the larger fight for Black lives. Our primary victories are proof that vocal, intersectional leadership mobilizes voters. It is time for us to rebuild our nation with equity and justice for all – what Jamaal and Mondaire call our generation’s Reconstruction.
Like Harriet Tubman, we’re going to reach back into our communities and bring everyone with us. Because the disabled community has a place in our movement. Immigrants have a place in our movement. The unhoused population has a place in our movement. Farmers and teachers, veterans and union workers, anyone who is committed to equity and justice, all have a place in our movement.
History shows that sustained mobilization is the only way to create social change. I get my strength from the millions of my sisters and brothers, voting today, organizing tomorrow. We’re not just fighting for ourselves, and we’re not fighting alone. We’re fighting for our friends, our neighbors, our loved ones – and for everyone we don’t know. And our movement is bringing their voices to Congress. Regardless of what the result is this week.
This is our moment. We are ready.
Cori Bush is a nurse, single mother, ordained pastor and community activist running for US Congress in Missouri’s 1st district
Sara Amora: ‘Fear cannot hold us back’
In the middle of what feels like the most dooming scenario, I want to be intentional in saying: we can change the world.
As an immigrant undocumented young activist, hearing that 6.8 million people ages 18 to 29 have voted early or by mail in the national election, more than double their vote at this point four years ago, I am reminded that fear and chaos cannot hold back people who fight for their community by all means. We are the generation with most access to information in history and yet somehow we have not lost hope.
In Texas, the youth vote is already up by over 600%, showing that despite fear tactics, direct attacks on human rights and a global pandemic, we will not be put down. In six states, young people have cast more votes than the 2016 margin of victory.
Young people have real power. Though we cannot change everything through voting, it is one thing we can do. Our actions at a local level are meaningful. Working-class youth and elders all across the country fight for the community because it is not an option – often we grow up fighting for our families without even realizing that what we are doing is activism. It’s a necessity of our upbringing to fight for the lives of those we love.
Since the beginning of 2020, being in quarantine, we saw how local communities showed up for each other. We saw people organizing local fundraisers for neighbors, crowdfunding for their favorite restaurants and and bringing custom to local small businesses affected by the pandemic. Today young people are showing up in staggering numbers, yesterday our elders fought many fights that paved the way. Regardless of results, we must continue to make the necessary radical changes for future generations and our current existence.
Sara Amora is a youth immigrant rights activist and president of Women’s March youth branch
Nikayla Jefferson, the Sunrise movement: ‘We are here because someone carried a dream by torchlight’
Today is election day. Only time will reveal the world to come, but before it does, I want you to know: we are here because someone carried a dream by torchlight.
Through the darkness, they kept their feet firmly fixed on the horizon. With righteous courage, they marched steady towards a vision of a United States truer to its founding promise: justice. We are here because they grew tired, stretched their arm to pass on the light, and we took up this torch and continued on.
Right now I am scared, too. Caught between Covid and our climate crisis, the darkness is deep and disorienting. I am afraid I will be the one to let the flame die out.
All I have to do is take a second and look to the line of little flames that march beside me, stretched into the curve of the Earth. I am not alone. Darkness grows, but so does our fire. The path more perilous, but we stay faithful to our vision. And this moment is just an obstacle. We will find a way through because the consequences of stopping are not an option. We know you, and all the generations to come, depend on us to continue on.
I want you to know, that today, tomorrow, and forever, I will carry this torch for you. We must be close, the sun about to crack and spill over the horizon, because it is always darkest before the light.
Election worker Kristen Mun empties ballots from a ballot box at the Multnomah county elections division in Portland. (photo: Paula Bronstein/AP)
Oregon Decriminalizes Possession of Street Drugs, Becoming First in Nation
Noelle Crombie, OregonLive
Crombie writes: "Oregon made history Tuesday in the movement to reconsider the nation's war on drugs by becoming the first state to decriminalize small amounts of heroin and other street drugs."
READ MORE
Chicago Teachers Union vice president Stacy Davis Gates says: 'Every single vote has to be counted.' (photo: Getty)
"We Won't Let Him": Unions Nationwide Are Planning a General Strike if Trump Tries to Steal the Election
Jeff Schuhrke, In These Times
Schuhrke writes: "President Trump has signaled he's ready to declare victory before all the votes are counted. These unions are saying 'hell no'-by planning massive workplace actions."
mid widespread concerns that President Donald Trump will attempt to steal today’s election or refuse to leave office if he loses, the leaders of multiple Chicago-area unions issued a joint statement on Monday committing to take any nonviolent action necessary — up to and including a general strike — to defend democracy.
“Every single vote has to be counted,” says Stacy Davis Gates, vice president of the Chicago Teachers Union (CTU). “We are prepared to be in solidarity to ensure that our democracy is protected in this moment.”
The CTU, United Electrical Workers (UE), SEIU Local 73, SEIU Healthcare, Cook County College Teachers Union, American Federation of Government Employees Local 704 and Warehouse Workers Organizing Committee are calling on “all unions, community, faith and civic organizations, and public leaders to unite in vigilance and readiness to defend our rights as the votes in the November 3rd election are cast and counted.”
The Chicago unions are part of Labor Action to Defend Democracy (LADD) — a recently formed national network of union members organizing the labor movement’s response to the threat of a stolen election.
Alex Han, a Chicago-based labor organizer helping coordinate LADD, says the network seeks to tap into the unique power of unions and workers to not only protest in the streets, but to cause serious economic disruption, if necessary.
“One lesson we learned from the summer is you can sustain street heat to some degree, but it’s going to dissolve. We saw this during Occupy, we’ve seen this many times,” Han tells In These Times. “There’s a perspective that would say the missing ingredient is a direct linkage with workplace action, which is the kind of action that could be more sustaining and sharper, and not let street action devolve into a running battle with police.”
LADD has put together various resources—including sample resolutions and a model letter to politicians — that unions can use to amplify calls to protect the electoral process. In the past three weeks, over twenty central labor councils, state labor federations, national and local unions have issued resolutions expressing firm opposition to any efforts to subvert, distort or disregard the final results of the presidential election.
The Rochester Labor Council is specifically calling on the national AFL-CIO to prepare for a general strike, while the Vermont AFL-CIO plans to hold a general strike vote on November 21 should Trump lose and refuse to concede. The Seattle Education Association will also convene an emergency meeting of its board of directors within a week of the election to consider next steps for possible action.
Meanwhile, the Emergency Workplace Organizing Committee (EWOC)—a joint project of the Democratic Socialists of America and UE formed earlier this year in response to the pandemic — hosted a livestream discussion last week on how workers can take mass action to ensure a peaceful transition of power. Featuring Association of Flight Attendants President Sara Nelson and EWOC organizers Dawn Tefft and Zack Pattin, the livestream has nearly 6,000 views.
“The labor movement knows how important it is to defend democracy in this country. We are democratic institutions,” UE President Carl Rosen explains. “We’re prepared to do whatever it takes to make sure democracy is sustained. We know what it’s taken in other countries that have faced tinpot dictators trying to stay in office after the people of their country have voted them out.”
As Rosen indicates, unions around the world are often the first line of defense against would-be dictatorships. For example, in the year since Bolivia’s democratically elected president Evo Morales was ousted in a U.S.-backed military coup, the Central Obrera Boliviana — the nation’s largest labor federation—led the fight to restore democracy, culminating in the recent electoral victory of Morales’s party, the Movimiento al Socialismo.
“The labor movement has a proud history of standing up for democracy and fair elections around the world,” says SEIU Local 73 President Dian Palmer. “Citizens across the country are voting like never before. We are utilizing the rights afforded to us to vote early, in person, and by mail. And those votes should be counted.”
“We believe in the power of the people — the multi-racial, working-class majority,” the Chicago unions’ statement reads. “Donald Trump wants to steal this election. We won’t let him.”
Israeli forces razed late on Tuesday 18 tents that housed 11 families in what was the northern village of Khirbet Humsa, displacing a total of 74 people. (photo: Hazem Bader/AFP)
Israeli Army Razes Entire Village in Occupied West Bank
Al Jazeera
Excerpt: "Israel's army has demolished homes of nearly 80 Palestinians in the occupied West Bank."
Eighteen tents that housed 11 families in the northern village of Khirbet Humsa were razed late on Tuesday.
A total of 74 people were displaced, more than half of which were minors, according to B’Tselem, an Israeli anti-occupation non-government organisation.
The bulldozers and diggers also demolished sheds used as livestock enclosures, portable toilets, water containers and solar panels, on top of confiscating vehicles and tractors belonging to some of the residents.
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh called on the international community to intervene against Israeli troops’ attempt to “displace the citizens of Khirbet Humsa and tens of similar communities from their homes and lands”, pointing to the fact that Israel “chose this evening to commit another crime” as the attention is focused on the United States presidential election.
Palestinian Prime Minister Mohammed Shtayyeh called on the international community to intervene against Israeli troops’ attempt to “displace the citizens of Khirbet Humsa and tens of similar communities from their homes and lands”, pointing to the fact that Israel “chose this evening to commit another crime” as the attention is focused on the United States presidential election.
“Clearly, the intention is to force residents off the land by creating a man-made humanitarian disaster. But residents have told us they have nowhere to go,” said on Twitter Sarit Michaeli, international advocacy officer for the B’Tselem, adding that this was the first demolition in seven years of an entire herder community.
The branch of Israel’s army responsible for civilian affairs in the West Bank, COGAT, said it destroyed structures that were “built illegally in a firing zone (military training area) in the Jordan Valley”.
The Jordan Valley is home to approximately 60,000 Palestinians, according to the UN, but nearly 90 percent of the land is part of what is known as Area C, the three-fifths of the West Bank that is under complete Israeli control.
It includes closed military areas and about 50 agricultural settlements housing some 12,000 Israelis.
Palestinians are barred from those areas and from the lands they own. They are forbidden from digging wells or building any kind of infrastructure without hard-to-get military permits.
From 2009 to 2016, less than two percent of more-than-3,300 permit applications in Area C were successful, according to Peace Now, an Israeli anti-settlement group, citing official statistics.
Anything built without a permit, from home extensions to tents, animal pens and irrigation networks, is at risk of demolition by the Israeli military.
Almost 800 Palestinians, including 404 minors, have already lost their homes in 2020.
Throughout the entire previous year, 677 lost their homes, up from 387 in 2018 and 521 in 2017.
The Trump administration aims to have seismic testing permitted in the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge in Alaska by the end of the year. (photo: Getty)
Trump's DOI Pressures Employees to Approve Seismic Testing in Arctic National Wildlife Refuge
Sabrina Shankman, Inside Climate News
Shankman writes: "Fish and Wildlife Service employees say they've been ordered to fast-track a permit before year's end, despite the potential risk to polar bears and the tundra."
The permit, called an incidental harassment authorization, allows for a small number of marine mammals—in this case, polar bears—to be disturbed, and is one of at least a dozen permits that must be obtained before seismic testing can begin.
The permitting process normally takes as much as a year to complete.
But a week ago, employees in the Alaska regional office of the wildlife service were told their timeline had been dramatically shortened: They would have four months from start to finish, according to an agency official who requested anonymity because of efforts to crack down on employees who speak out publicly.
Aurelia Skipwith, the director of the Fish and Wildlife Service and a Trump appointee, sent a directive instructing the regional office to get the permit to the agency's headquarters for the next step of the process by Friday, Oct. 30, according to the official, and to finalize it by the end of the year. The deadline left workers scrambling to complete a review based on an application for the seismic testing that isn't yet complete.
"This timing is completely arbitrary," the official said.
At stake is whether the Trump administration will be able to plant a flag along the coastal plain of the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge before the end of the president's first term, and before a possible Biden Administration takes office. The seismic testing that is being proposed can cause lasting damage to the tundra in the process of trying to determine how much oil might be underground. It would be a significant first step toward oil development in the region.
"This seems like an effort to try to change the facts on the ground before a potential change in presidential power," said Adam Kolton, executive director of the Alaska Wilderness League. "But none of us can lose sight of the risks here. We're talking about a massive intrusion into the Arctic National Wildlife Refuge at the height of polar bear denning season, which could leave scars on the tundra that are permanent."
InsideClimate News emailed detailed questions seeking comment to the Fish and Wildlife Service on Wednesday. By late Friday, no response had been provided. The public affairs office for the agency said that answers to the questions had been submitted to the Interior Department for approval, but that the department was unlikely to take action before Monday. The office offered to provide a response "post-publication." A call directly to Skipwith was referred back to the external affairs office.
Until the passage of the 2017 Tax Act, the 1.6 million acres of coastal plain that the administration has opened to oil exploration were off limits to drilling, much like the rest of the Refuge. The plain is considered the most important onshore denning area for the polar bears that live along the southern Beaufort Sea—a population that scientists have shown has fallen in numbers and suffered health impacts from the climate change-driven retreat of sea ice. The coastal plain is also home to nearly 200 wildlife species, including the Porcupine caribou herd, which holds a sacred place in the culture of the native Gwich'in people.
Since the beginning of the Trump administration, bringing oil development to the Arctic Refuge has been a top priority. The 2017 Tax Act included a provision that required a leasing sale to be held on the coastal plain to raise revenue, and with the Act's passage, decades of protections were removed.
Since then, federal agencies have been racing through the legally-mandated steps to hold a lease sale before the end of 2020. But a tumbling oil market and the coronavirus have made it unclear whether a sale will be held—or, if it is, whether companies will bid. And with the election looming, it seemed as if Trump might be unable to make good on his early promise to develop the Refuge.
That changed on Oct. 23, when the Bureau of Land Management, the Fish and Wildlife Service's parent agency, announced it was considering an application to conduct seismic testing across more than half-a-million acres of the coastal plain, beginning as soon as December.
The truncated timeline has left the Alaska regional office "scrambling to review it on short notice," according to a former member of the Fish and Wildlife Service polar bear program.
And it has alarmed the Gwich'in, who have been fighting to protect the coastal plain. "We felt that they were going to push this through, but this quickly? It's just really insulting to our people," said Bernadette Demientieff, the executive director of the Gwich'in Steering Committee.
To get the review done and still comply with a mandatory 30-day public comment period, the Fish and Wildlife Service employees in the Alaska office have to turn the polar bear permit around at break-neck speed.
A Grid Visible From Outer Space
The plan calls for a crew of 180 people to conduct the seismic survey, which is estimated to take till the end of May, and for the construction of temporary airstrips on the coastal plain. The survey would require 12 "thumper" trucks, which weigh 90,000 pounds each; more than 40 Tucker vehicles; and tractors and 50 camp trailers.
The area selected for the survey is known for a higher density of polar bear dens than other parts of the coastal plain.
"This is the core denning area for the southern Beaufort Sea stock of polar bears," said the Fish and Wildlife Service official.
Derrick Henry, a spokesman for the Bureau of Land Management, said the agency is working on completing an environmental assessment of the survey "to identify impacts and mitigation measures that may be needed to avoid or minimize impacts."
That assessment is based on an application for seismic testing that was filed by Kaktovik Inupiat Corporation (KIC), an Alaska Native corporation, and is not yet ready for review. The public has been given 14 days to comment on the survey, but they must do so based only on the original application from KIC, without input from experts on what the environmental impacts might be. That application is the only publicly available document. According to the Fish and Wildlife Service official, that means the public isn't commenting on the most up-to-date version of the survey plan because, as the agency has worked with the corporation on its application, changes have been made.
Matthew Rexford, president of Kaktovik Inupiat Corporation, said he is confident that through the permitting process they will be able to tailor the plan so it has minimal impacts on the tundra and the species that live there. "The Kaktovikmiut have been using the land known as the 1002 Area or Coastal Plain of ANWR for hundreds of years," Rexford said. "We know the land, the animals, and the environment.
He added, "We believe that through the stringent regulatory environment and the oversight of our Home-Rule borough, the North Slope Borough, all impacts from exploration and development can be mitigated to preserve the area."
The BLM opted to conduct an "environmental assessment," rather than a more rigorous "environmental impact statement" or EIS. That distinction is significant. An environmental assessment is a concise review, rather than the comprehensive dive into environmental impacts that an EIS entails. It also does not require a public comment period.
Ultimately, the public will get two public comment periods on the survey—on the application, and on the polar bear permit. But they will not have a chance to comment on the environmental impacts of the survey.
The administration recently completed an environmental impact statement for its proposed leasing plan in the refuge. That EIS sparked an immediate outcry from conservation groups, who filed a lawsuit claiming the assessment failed to take into account how development in the refuge would affect the environment and the climate.
The EIS for the leasing plan did not take an in-depth look at the impacts of seismic testing. But Henry, the BLM spokesman, said the bureau had received "more than one million comments on the Leasing EIS, some of which were related to seismic exploration." Comments on an earlier application for seismic exploration identified more than 130 issues for the bureau to consider, he added.
As a result, Henry said, "It is not expected that any additional public meetings would provide any new or relevant information to consider" in the development of the environmental assessment of the proposed seismic survey.
That decision does not sit well with environmental groups. "It is unacceptable that BLM is not preparing an environmental impact statement for this massive and damaging proposal," said Bridget Psarianos, a staff attorney with Trustees for Alaska, an environmental law firm. "Seismic exploration and its impacts were not properly considered in the agency's Leasing EIS; BLM kicked the can down the road. Now that we're down the road, the agency must consider the impacts to imperiled polar bears and fragile tundra rather than rush through on a politically motivated timeline."
A study published in the journal Ecological Applications earlier this year found that scars from past seismic surveys in the Arctic Refuge remained for decades, and noted that the methods used then were less intrusive than those being proposed now.
Niel Lawrence, the Alaska director of the Natural Resources Defense Council, said that for the government to say that a grid that spans "a third of the sensitive coastal plain—almost a half a million acres—a grid you can see from outer space, that cuts across waterways, that causes the melting of the permafrost" has no significant impact "does not pass the legal laugh test."
Although the application for the seismic survey was filed by the Kaktovik Inupiat Corporation, an Alaska Native corporation, the work would be completed by SAExploration, a contractor that filed an earlier seismic survey application in 2018. That application failed—in part because Fish and Wildlife found it would be devastating to polar bears in the area.
Since then, SAExploration has filed for bankruptcy and now faces accusations of fraud by the Securities and Exchange Commission over charges, filed in early October, that four former executives falsely inflated the company's revenue by roughly $100 million and concealed millions of dollars in theft.
A Different Way to Do It
The 2018 application for a seismic survey was larger in scope than the current application. It called for the survey to be conducted across the entire 1.6 million acres of the coastal plain.
"They were going to carpet bomb the Refuge with seismic lines from early in the year until the snow melted," said a former member of the Fish and Wildlife Service's polar bear program, who also requested anonymity because of not being authorized to discuss the issue. "Basically you'd nail or disturb every den in the Refuge with what they originally proposed."
Though polar bears are the rare bear that does not hibernate, pregnant female bears are in some ways an exception to that rule. In the winter, they enter dens in the snow and they stay there to gestate and birth their cubs. Once the cubs are born, they remain in the den a while longer, until the cubs are strong enough to survive the elements.
It's a crucial time in a polar bear's life, for both the mother and the cubs, and is especially fraught in the Arctic Refuge, according to a study released by the U.S. Geological Survey in October. Fish and Wildlife Service experts have found that because of the declining population rates in the region, the killing of even one polar bear could be detrimental to the species' survival.
Moreover, the technology used to locate the dens so that workers can avoid them—called forward-looking infrared systems, or FLIR—is successful less than half the time, according to a study published in 2019.
As the office weighed the 2018 application for the survey, two polar bear scientists—one from Fish and Wildlife and one from the U.S. Geological Survey—created a new model to project how seismic surveys might impact bears.
The model enabled the scientists to quantify how many bears could be affected by a specific project. They found that the plan proposed by SAExploration would be lethal to bears in the region.
"Basically they were inevitably going to run over polar bear dens and either directly kill bears— moms or cubs—or prematurely drive them out of the den, which would result in the cub mortality," said the former member of the agency's polar bear program. "That analysis really started a political firestorm."
The scientists wrote a paper based on their model, laying out a map for how seismic testing could be conducted in a way that would minimize impacts to polar bears, the former member of the Fish and Wildlife polar bear program said. That would require spreading testing out over two years, which could lengthen the time before companies could start drilling. But when the scientists decided to submit the paper to a peer reviewed journal, Interior Department officials denied permission to publish the findings. "Interior tried to squash it," the former agency employee said.
Members of the Alaska regional office pushed back, according to the former employee, and in December 2019, the article was published in the Journal of Wildlife Management.
A few months later, in February 2020, the Interior Department took an unusual step, the Fish and Wildlife official said. It posted the article—which had already been peer-reviewed—in the Federal Register, opening it up to public comment.
Joel Clement, a former Interior Department official who in 2017 blew the whistle on the Trump administration, saying that he was reassigned for speaking about climate change, wrote on a blog published by the Union of Concerned Scientists that the decision to post the article was a blatant violation of scientific integrity. "The only plausible reason for the agency to seek public comment on the study," he wrote, "would be to give agency leadership something to point to, on behalf of fossil fuel interests, if they don't like the scientific results.".
The Fish and Wildlife official who described the pressure on workers to finalize the seismic survey permit said that what happened with the paper was characteristic of how the Interior Department was being run under the Trump administration. "It's complete insanity," said the official, "I've never seen anything like this, and no one I know has seen anything like this at the agency. This administration is treating career employees with a level of contempt and disregard that is deeply disturbing and disappointing."
What's at Stake
The Alaska regional Fish and Wildlife Service office received the current seismic application in August. From the start, they were told to get the polar bear permit completed as soon as possible, according to the Fish and Wildlife Service employee. The employees there told their supervisors the earliest they could get it done was January 21, the day after the winner of the presidential election would be inaugurated.
But then last week, the orders changed, with the new timeline requiring that the permit be finalized by year's end. While the environmental assessment on the seismic program does not have a public comment period, the polar bear permit will have a 30-day comment period. In order to meet Skipwith's end of the year deadline and provide time for the federally-mandated comment period, the analysis is having to be inappropriately cut short, according to the agency.
Demientieff, the Gwich'in steering committee executive director, said that in the rush to plant a flag in the untouched reaches of the Refuge, what stands to be lost is incalculable.
"Protecting this place is very, very deeply important to the Gwich'in and to myself," she said. The coastal plain, which is the calving grounds for the Porcupine Caribou herd, is so sacred, she said, that even during times of food shortages and starvation the Gwich'in will not go there.
"We will never give up or stop protecting this area," she said.
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