PRESSING PAUSE — After a pause in fighting between Israel and Hamas was extended today for two more days, Hamas released 11 more Israeli hostages — nine children and two women — with plans to release more Tuesday. The pause is welcome news for Israelis advocating to get family members and friends back, and also has allowed humanitarian aid to enter Gaza, where weeks of bombing have left many Gazans homeless and without access to basic needs. Israel has also released Palestinian prisoners as part of the agreement. But as the reprieve stretches into this week, questions remain — what will the conflict look like on the other side of the pause in fighting? Just how long will war stretch, and how brutal will it get? The answers to those questions will be shaped by any number of variables, not all of them tactical or strategic. Israel’s Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s government is under intense scrutiny in the country for not seeing the attacks on Oct. 7 coming, and he faces international pressure to slow a skyrocketing death toll in Gaza. To discuss Israel’s political situation and the state of the war, Nightly turned to Erin Banco , a national security reporter at POLITICO who’s reported extensively on the conflict . This conversation has been edited. What does the extension in the pause in fighting tell us about how each side currently views the conflict? I think it indicates that both sides see an extension in the pause as beneficial to their position. It does two things: One, it allows for their fighters and forces to rest and rebuild and two, it allows for the release of additional hostages. This extended pause is something the U.S. has pushed for behind the scenes in the wake of increasing demand from inside Gaza for more fuel and humanitarian aid. What are the contours of the domestic political pressures on Netanyahu? Are there coalitions in Israel pushing for longer pauses? I would say that generally what we’re seeing inside Israel among the population is support for the government’s proposed strategy of eliminating Hamas. But the people also want to see their family members returned home. And it seems like the hostages can most easily be released during a pause in fighting. Netanyahu, who has come under scrutiny for his government’s handling of Oct. 7 (namely that it failed to prevent the attack), has to walk a tightrope here. He was already on thin ice before Oct. 7. Now, he needs to balance his promise on Hamas while also ensuring the safety of the hostages. And on top of that, he’s also under pressure from the U.S. to reduce the humanitarian suffering in Gaza. What about internationally? What specific role has international pressure in the U.S. and elsewhere played in getting the Israeli government to negotiate a longer ceasefire? We’ve seen an extraordinary number of people — from civilians to lawmakers to senior officials — calling for a pause in fighting. Protests have stretched across the globe. In the last few weeks, those calls have grown even louder. The pressure from the U.S. administration’s side has grown fiercer as well, particularly following the IDF’s occupation of al-Shifa Hospital and its bombardment of other hospitals in Gaza. Doctors have reported horrifying conditions in those kinds of facilities. I don’t think we can downplay the extent to which the international concern over the humanitarian situation on the ground has influenced Israel’s decision-making. But we also know that Israel has been steadfast in its messaging that it does not plan on backing down or turning away from fighting Hamas in Gaza. I would expect fighting to resume. The question is whether that fighting will resume before all the hostages are released or after. In their military campaign thus far, how significantly has Israel weakened Hamas or their hold on Gaza? It’s really tough to say. The flow of information out of Gaza is extremely limited. One thing I will say is that-- having been to Gaza to cover the war in 2014-- Hamas’ grip on the strip is significant. It has fortified itself, building an extensive network of tunnels and military outposts. Its militants are also embedded within the population, making them difficult to pinpoint and fight without risking civilian lives. Gaza is extremely dense, making it difficult for the IDF to navigate and root out Hamas. Remember Fallujah? Gaza is way denser, so it poses even more of a challenge for the IDF. What’s next in the conflict — is there a real chance for longer, extended pauses in fighting that could deliver even more hostages back? What do the next 3 or 6 months look like? With one deal done, I’d say there is a chance for another deal down the line on hostages. And I assume that would also include an extended pause in fighting. That could be tacked on to this deal, but I’m not sure how tense the situation is right now between the two sides. They seem to have worked out a minor issue on the list of hostages’ names today . But that doesn’t mean they’re willing to continue to work on these negotiations right now. There could be another spate of fighting followed by another negotiation. Or, all of the hostages could be released in the coming weeks. I don’t know. But we do know that the fighting will continue, at some point. And I think it will take the IDF some time to eliminate Hamas like it has promised not only because of how entrenched Hamas is in Gaza, but also because the U.S. is pressuring Israel to conduct limited, targeted strikes. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @calder_mchugh .
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