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IMPORTANT ISSUES! THESE ARE NOT SOLICITATIONS

As we head into the final month of the midterms, The Downballot is pleased to launch a new series of special reports on the elections that will directly shape how our democracy is run for years to come.

We’re making these reports available exclusively to paid subscribers like you.

Today, we’re starting with this year’s races for secretary of state—the very people who actually administer our elections. It goes without saying that stopping MAGA-backed election deniers is mission-critical for preserving American democracy.

We’re especially delighted to welcome back the author of this series, Stephen Wolf, a longtime member of our team and an expert on these topics. What’s most important, though, is that he truly cares about these elections and their outcomes.

Stephen has devoted his career to these issues because, simply put, he reveres democracy and never hesitates to say so. Far too many journalists, though, treat it all like a coldly analytical game and are afraid to stand up for democracy lest they appear too “partisan.”

Here at The Downballot, we know there’s nothing partisan about it. We don’t pretend to be blithe about America’s slide toward authoritarianism—and we’re full-throated about our desire to halt it.

Thank you once again for making our work possible,

David Nir, Publisher

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Voters can stop MAGA from running elections in more than a dozen states

Our complete guide every race for secretary of state (and more!) this year

Stephen Wolf Oct 2 ∙

As Donald Trump once again seeks to subvert America’s elections, voters in three dozen states will have the opportunity next month to elect officials who can stand as a bulwark against these efforts.

Democrats in particular have as many as 10 opportunities to flip authority over election administration from Republicans, including in major states like Georgia, Ohio, and even Texas. Victories in places like these would deal a major blow to MAGA-driven attempts to corrupt democracy.

Many of these 36 states will directly elect their top election administrators, a post typically held by secretaries of state. Some, meanwhile, will host races for offices tasked with selecting those officials, such as Florida, whose governor appoints the secretary of state. Others still take hybrid approaches.

Below, we explore the 14 states that are most likely to have competitive contests between the parties in the key races that will determine who runs each state’s elections.

Competitive States

In 2026, 14 states have potentially competitive elections for these offices. Ten of these have a directly elected secretary of state, and two of those have a hybrid system with election boards. Other elected offices are determinative in the remaining four states. Current partisan control is shown on the map at the top of this post and is also denoted after each state’s name.

Alaska (R)

Election that matters: Governor

Elections run by: Lieutenant governor

The lieutenant governor is chosen by the governor as their running mate. That person subsequently appoints a director of the state’s elections division, who is in charge of day-to-day operations. Republican Lt. Gov. Nancy Dahlstrom is not seeking reelection.

Democratic gubernatorial nominee Jonathan Kreiss-Tomkins faces three Republicans—Bernadette Wilson, Dave Bronson, and Treg Taylor—in a ranked-choice election that appears highly competitive. Limited polling has shown Kreiss-Tomkins leading, including one that simulated the ranked-choice process.

Kreiss-Tomkins’ nominee for lieutenant governor is Zac Johnson, an independent who serves on Anchorage’s city council. His opponents have all tapped fellow Republicans: Wilson is running alongside Mike Shower; Bronson’s running mate is Josh Church; and Taylor’s nominee is Candice English.

Arizona (D)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Democratic Secretary of State Adrian Fontes is seeking a second term and faces Republican state Rep. Alex Kolodin, an election denier. In 2022, Fontes earned the highest vote share among Arizona Democrats running statewide because he ran against a different election denier whose views proved unpopular. Fontes is favored to win again.

Florida (R)

Election that matters: Governor

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Florida’s governor appoints the secretary of state, subject to state Senate confirmation. Republican Gov. Ron DeSantis is term-limited, and Republican Rep. Byron Donalds faces Democrat David Jolly, a former congressman who served as a Republican but later broke with his old party and became a vocal critic of Donald Trump.

While Florida has veered sharply to the right in recent elections and Donalds is favored, recent polling suggests Jolly could pull off an upset. The current secretary of state is Republican Cord Byrd.

Georgia (R)

Elections that matter: Secretary of state, state legislature, and governor

Elections run by: Secretary of state and state Election Board

Republican Secretary of State Brad Raffensperger isn’t seeking reelection, leading to a competitive race between Republican state Rep. Tim Fleming and Democrat Penny Brown Reynolds, a former state judge. If Democrats were to flip this office, they’d acquire real power, but the state’s Election Board also plays a key role in establishing election procedures.

That panel has five members, with each political party choosing one member, while the state House and state Senate each get to select one as well. Both chambers must then concur on an ostensibly nonpartisan fifth member for chair, though the governor can appoint a chair if a vacancy arises when the legislature is out of session.

Because Republicans control both chambers of the legislature and the governorship, they’ve been able to select four of the board’s five members. To change that balance of power, Democrats would need to win the race to succeed term-limited Republican Gov. Brian Kemp, who appointed the current chair, and either the House or the Senate.

The former is much more likely. Former Atlanta Mayor Keisha Lance Bottoms faces Republican businessman Rick Jackson in the race for governor, which recent polls have found to be close.

The legislature poses a much tougher problem for Democrats, thanks to extreme Republican gerrymanders. However, in a sufficiently large electoral wave, Democrats could conceivably break the GOP’s 99-81 majority in the House; the map for the Senate, which Republicans control 33-23, is much tougher.

Indiana (R)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state and state Elections Commission

U.S. Senate aide Max Engling defeated scandal-tarred Secretary of State Diego Morales for the Republican nomination earlier this year, while Democrats nominated Marine veteran Beau Bayh, a strong fundraiser who comes from a prominent political family. Bayh is the son of Evan Bayh, who previously served as senator and governor, and his grandfather Birch Bayh was also a senator.

Replacing Morales gives the GOP a better chance of winning in this normally red state, but there’s a third candidate on the ballot who could make life difficult for Republicans. Former Indianapolis Mayor Greg Ballard previously ran Indiana’s largest city as a Republican, but he’s on the ballot this year under the newly created Lincoln Party banner.

Ballard’s candidacy could lead to a split among conservative-leaning voters, and Republicans are worried enough about him that they’ve spent seven figures on ads attacking him and boosting Engling.

The secretary of state also shares authority over elections with the state Election Commission, which is evenly divided between nominees chosen by the parties and appointed by the governor, though the secretary can break ties on some matters.

Iowa (R)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Republican incumbent Paul Pate has held office since the 2014 elections and is seeking his fifth nonconsecutive term (he previously served from 1995-1999). Pate’s Democratic challenger is Navy veteran Ryan Peterman, who could ride the wave of dissatisfaction with state Republicans that has given Democrats a strong chance to win other contests up and down the ballot.

Kansas (R)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Republican incumbent Scott Schwab is not seeking reelection, but GOP state Rep. Pat Proctor and former Democratic state Rep. Jennifer Day are both vying to succeed him. Kansas has long been a Republican-friendly state, and that may be enough for Proctor to prevail. However, Democrats are running competitive races for both Senate and governor, so Day might be able to pull off an upset.

Michigan (D)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Democratic incumbent Jocelyn Benson is running for governor, and Democrats nominated Lt. Gov. Garlin Gilchrist to succeed her. Republicans went with Macomb County Clerk Anthony Forlini, a relatively mainstream choice four years after an election denier led them to a blowout defeat. Gilchrist should have an advantage in a Democratic-leaning year like this one, but the race looks competitive.

Minnesota (D)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Democratic incumbent Steve Simon is seeking a fourth term against former Republican state lawmaker Tad Jude. Minnesota’s Democratic lean and Simon’s strong electoral history make him the favorite in this political environment.

Nebraska (R)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Republican Secretary of State Bob Evnen lost renomination to businessman Scott Petersen, an election denier who challenged him from the right. Petersen’s Democratic opponent is businesswoman Sarah Slattery, but like in Indiana, a third-party hopeful could give the GOP grief.

That wildcard is former state Sen. Bob Krist, who held office as a Republican, then switched parties and became the Democratic nominee for governor in 2018, but later rejoined the GOP. This time, however, he’s running with the newly created America First Party, whose Trumpian name could help peel off conservative voters.

Nebraska is typically a solidly red state, and Republicans have held this office ever since reclaiming it in the 1940 elections. However, Petersen’s defeat of Evnen and Krist’s third-party bid could give Slattery an opportunity for a major upset.

Nevada (D)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Democratic incumbent Cisco Aguilar faces a rematch against former Assemblyman Jim Marchant, whose support for election conspiracy theories may have cost Republicans this office in 2022 when Aguilar won an open-seat race 49-47. With a much more favorable environment for Democrats this year, Aguilar is strongly favored to win a second term.

New Hampshire (R)

Election that matters: State legislature

Elections run by: Secretary of state

New Hampshire’s legislature appoints its secretary of state in a joint session where members of both chambers each get one vote. But while Republican gerrymandering has been a perennial hindrance to Democrats since the 2010 midterms, it may not be enough to help secure a third two-year term for Republican David Scanlan.

With an electorate that’s much more inclined to switch between the parties compared to voters in most other states, a wave could sweep enough Democrats into office such that they secure an overall majority even if they don’t flip both chambers. That’s because the 400-member House, where the GOP’s gerrymander is less stubborn, far outnumbers the 24-member Senate.

Ohio (R)

Election that matters: Secretary of state

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Term-limited Republican incumbent Frank LaRose is running for state auditor, so in his stead, the GOP nominated state Treasurer Robert Sprague. Democrats, meanwhile, tapped state Rep. Allison Russo, who previously led her party’s caucus in the lower chamber.

Ohio has grown decidedly Republican-leaning in the Trump era, but with highly competitive elections for both Senate and governor, a strong Democratic year gives Russo a fighting chance.

Texas (R)

Election that matters: Governor

Elections run by: Secretary of state

Texas’ governor appoints the secretary of state subject to state Senate confirmation. GOP Gov. Greg Abbott is seeking a fourth term but faces his toughest challenge yet from Democratic state Rep. Gina Hinojosa. Polls have frequently found a small lead for Abbott, but if Hinojosa ends the GOP’s three-decade streak in charge of the governorship, she could appoint a replacement for Secretary of State Robert Howden next year.

Safe States

Voters in 22 other states and Washington, D.C., will elect officials who will decide which party, if any, runs elections, but partisan control in each of these is unlikely to change.

Democrats are defending elected secretaries of state in California, Colorado, Connecticut, Massachusetts, New Mexico, Rhode Island, and Vermont. Maine’s legislature elects its secretary, while Pennsylvania’s governor appoints the position subject to Senate confirmation. (Pennsylvania Gov. Josh Shapiro appointed Republican Al Schmidt, but he generally aligns with Democrats on voting issues.)

Democratic governors determine election board majorities in Maryland and Rhode Island; the latter’s board also shares powers with the secretary of state. In D.C., the Democratic mayor and council appoint a three-member board.

Republicans are likely to hold onto the office of secretary of state in Alabama, Arkansas, Idaho, North Dakota, South Dakota, and Wyoming. South Carolina’s governor and several Arkansas officials determine control of their election boards. Oklahoma’s state Senate majority picks the top elections official, while the GOP’s voter registration advantage ensures a Republican majority on the state elections board.

Hawaii, Illinois, New York, and Wisconsin have evenly divided bipartisan election boards appointed by their governors, legislative leaders, or both. While Illinois and Wisconsin both elect secretaries of state, these offices don’t oversee elections.