Middleboro Review 2: POLITICO Nightly: What kind of political creature is Mike Johnson?

Friday, October 27, 2023

POLITICO Nightly: What kind of political creature is Mike Johnson?

House Speaker Mike Johnson (R-La.) arrives for a media availability at the U.S. Capitol today. | Francis Chung/POLITICO

DISCOVERING AMERICA — With House Republicans clinging to a narrow majority ahead of the 2024 elections, it’s only natural that the party would worry about whether new House Speaker Mike Johnson has the fundraising chops to enable the GOP to hang on .

But there’s another, related question that isn’t getting much airing — and may be just as critical to the party’s prospects next year: What kind of political creature is Johnson? How much does he understand about the modern political map and the field conditions affecting his conference?

All members of Congress are political animals, of course. But the ones who rise on the national stage often have a more sophisticated and nuanced grasp of the political landscape beyond their own backyard, and a climatologist’s feel for the atmospheric patterns from state to state and region to region.

Kevin McCarthy, Johnson’s predecessor as speaker, is one of those politicians. A former district director for Rep. Bill Thomas (R-Calif.), minority leader of the California House and head of recruiting for the National Republican Congressional Committee, he was primed for the political dimensions of the House speakership. Even as McCarthy ran for an open seat in Congress in 2006, he was sending donations to other aspiring House Republican candidates in contested races across the nation.

Nancy Pelosi, the former Democratic speaker, was introduced to campaigns and elections at an early age — her father was a big-city mayor with an urban machine to attend to. Before winning election to Congress, she served as state party chair of California — back when it was still a competitive two-party state — and got a crash course in the political distinctions between Northern and Southern California, Orange County and Marin County, the Central Valley and Silicon Valley.

Johnson, on the other hand, has a far more limited range of experience. His political frame of reference is essentially the Trump era. A constitutional lawyer and talk show host, he was unopposed in his special election to a single term in the state legislature in 2015 and then won election to Congress in 2016.

He had to win a crowded primary to capture his Northwest Louisiana-based congressional seat, but he’s never broken a sweat since then. Johnson has skated to re-election three times in his comfortably Republican district; last year, he had no opposition at all.

Johnson hails from a one-party district in a one-party state — and that state is Louisiana, which holds off-year legislative and gubernatorial elections and has a unique primary system that makes it something of an exotic among the 50 states. Louisiana politics is not for the faint of heart, but neither is it the best preparation for the business of defending 221 seats spread across nearly every region of the nation.

Johnson will need to get up to speed quickly on the very different pressures faced by many of his GOP colleagues — 18 of whom sit in districts carried by President Joe Biden in 2020. In those places, Johnson’s call for a national abortion ban and his leading role in attempting to overturn the 2020 election results will not be helpful to them. Most, if not all, of those Biden-district Republicans will be pedaling hard to distance themselves from their party leader on the campaign trail.

In that sense, Johnson’s social conservatism, fidelity to Trump and red-state pedigree could make him a partisan bogeyman similar to Pelosi. Her wealth, liberal politics and San Francisco base made her easy to caricature in GOP campaign ads against vulnerable Democrats. Demonizing Johnson is the Democrats’ hope and intention , at least. There’s no guarantee it will work: it could take years before Johnson, who is largely unknown, builds any name recognition.

Pelosi, like McCarthy, had an ace in the hole — she minted money for her caucus. Johnson has the unenviable task of following two of the most prolific fundraisers Washington has ever seen.

Next year, there will be a simple way to test Johnson’s ability to master the political dimensions of the speakership. There are a handful of first-term New York Republicans — in places like the Hudson Valley and Long Island — who could be the difference between holding and losing the majority. Is Mike Johnson an asset, a liability or a wash for them?

Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s author at cmahtesian@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie .

GO INSIDE THE MILKEN INSTITUTE FUTURE OF HEALTH SUMMIT: POLITICO is proud to partner with the Milken Institute to feature a special edition of our Future Pulse newsletter at the 2023 Milken Institute Future of Health Summit from November 6-8. The newsletter takes readers inside one of the most influential gatherings of global health industry leaders and innovators solving the biggest public health issues to ensure a healthier, more resilient future for all. SUBSCRIBE TODAY TO RECEIVE EXCLUSIVE COVERAGE .

WHAT'D I MISS?

— NYC offers migrants free travel anywhere to move : Mayor Eric Adams is ramping up efforts to fly migrants to the destination of their choice , figuring it’s cheaper than sheltering them for months on end. And he’s simultaneously warning that those opting to stay in New York may be in for a winter of sleeping outside with shelters full. In recent days, the mayor of the nation’s largest city has been steering people who were vacated from city shelters to a Manhattan office devoted solely to booking plane tickets, creating more uncertainty for the new arrivals.

— Georgia’s congressional map violates Voting Rights Act, court finds: A federal court found today that Georgia’s congressional map violates the Voting Rights Act , the latest Southern state to have its map struck down for discriminating against Black voters. A judge ordered the state legislature to redraw the lines by early December. The ruling will likely be appealed by Georgia Republicans. It could lead to the creation of an additional majority-Black district in the state — although the immediate partisan effects aren’t clear.

— Jackson running for N.C. attorney general after being gerrymandered out of House seat: Democratic Rep. Jeff Jackson is running for North Carolina attorney general in the wake of an aggressive Republican gerrymander that all but guaranteed he couldn’t have won reelection. Jackson, a former prosecutor and veteran serving his first term in Congress, represents NC-14, one of four significantly redrawn districts under the new congressional map Republicans adopted Wednesday. The current congressional delegation is split 7-7, but the new map draws 10 districts that are safe GOP seats, three that are safe Democratic districts and one that is competitive.

ADDED:
BLAKE MASTERS doesn't live in the district, + 120 miles away, lost Senate bid against MARK KELLY, venture capitalist vulture, supported by PETER THIEL.

excerpt:
Controversial comments from Masters
Masters has made racist and bigoted comments in the past, Time magazine reports.

He said “Black people” are to blame for gun violence in America. He also said that Democrats are trying to flood the country with immigrants “to change the demographics of our country,” according to PBS NewsHour.

According to Time, Masters has also promoted the “great replacement theory,” which suggests there is a plot to decrease the influence of white people in America.
https://www.deseret.com/2022/10/26/23423614/who-blake-masters

— Masters announces House bid in Arizona, forgoing another run for Senate: Former Republican Senate candidate Blake Masters announced today that he would run for an open congressional seat in the Phoenix suburbs , changing course from a planned second run for Senate in 2024. Masters, who ran against Sen. Mark Kelly (D-Ariz.) in a marquee Senate race in the 2022 midterm elections and lost by nearly 5 percentage points, had been hailed by conservative figures like Tucker Carlson as the “future of the Republican Party.” He has also received financial support from tech billionaire Peter Thiel.

NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024

REALITY TV — A federal judicial panel has turned down a bid to allow live television coverage of two historic criminal trials of former President Donald Trump scheduled for next year, reports POLITICO.

Without apparent dissent, a committee that handles potential changes to the federal courts’ criminal rules concluded today that it had no ability to alter the existing ban on broadcasting federal criminal trials. Thirty-eight Democratic House members and some media outlets had requested that the rules be changed or an exception be created to allow Trump’s looming federal trials to be televised.

ARMS SUPPLIER — Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis said today he’s arranged to send drones, weapons and ammunition to Israel as it prepares for an incursion of Gaza in response to Hamas’ attack, the Associated Press reports. It’s the latest official response DeSantis has taken to back Israel as he competes in the 2024 Republican presidential primary. Florida has sent cargo planes with healthcare supplies, drones, body armor and helmets, said Jeremy Redfern, a spokesman for the governor’s office. The state also worked with groups to supply unspecified amounts of weapons and ammunition that were privately funded, Redfern said.

The governor’s office said it acted at the request of Israel’s consul general in Miami. Maor Elbaz-Starinsky, the consul general, initially said today he did not request drones, body armor or helmets, nor had he talked to the governor about help getting weapons or ammunition through private parties.

AROUND THE WORLD

Armenia's Prime Minister Nikol Pachinian addresses members of parliament during a plenary session at the European Parliament in Strasbourg, France, on Oct. 17, 2023. | Frederick Florin/AFP via Getty Images

PEACE IN PROCESS — Armenia could agree terms on a comprehensive peace agreement with neighboring Azerbaijan , ending a bitter regional rivalry after three decades of hostilities, Armenia’s prime minister said today, reports Gabriel Gavin .

Speaking at a conference in Georgia, Armenian Prime Minister Nikol Pashinyan said that his government could sign “an agreement on peace and the establishment of relationships” with its neighbor “in the coming months.”

At the same time, he unveiled a “Crossroads of Peace” project designed to reopen road and railway links that have been blocked for decades amid the simmering conflict with Azerbaijan and its close ally, Turkey.

The announcement comes just weeks after Azerbaijan launched a lightning offensive to take control of the region of Nagorno-Karabakh, which has been fought over by the two sides since the fall of the USSR. An estimated 100,000 ethnic Armenians living in the mountainous territory were forced to flee their homes as their unrecognized breakaway state collapsed after 30 years of de facto autonomy.

On Tuesday, Azerbaijani Foreign Minister Jeyhun Bayramov said the decisive military action means there are now “real chances for the conclusion of a peace treaty between Azerbaijan and Armenia within a short period of time.”

SECOND FRONT — Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy suggested that Russia is benefitting from war in the Middle East as senior officials from Hamas arrived in Moscow for talks, writes Paul Dallison .

Addressing EU leaders meeting for a summit in Brussels, Zelenskyy said by video link: “We must do everything to prevent an even larger international fire from breaking out in the Middle East. The enemies of freedom are very interested in bringing the free world to the second front.”

He added: “We must clearly see this scenario and counter it — together, of course. The sooner security prevails in the Middle East, the sooner we will restore security here — in Europe.”

Zelenskyy spoke as a delegation from Hamas visited Moscow for talks on the release of the foreign hostages, including Russians, that the group is holding in Gaza, Russian news agencies reported.

Earlier this week, Russian President Vladimir Putin warned that an Israeli ground invasion of Gaza could lead to a broader regional conflict. “Our main task is to stop the bloodshed and violence,” he said, “otherwise, further escalation of the crisis is fraught with grave and extremely dangerous and destructive consequences. And not only for the Middle East region. It could spill over far beyond the borders of the Middle East.”

JOIN 10/25 FOR A TALK ON THE FUTURE OF GRID RELIABILITY: The EPA’s proposed standards for coal and new natural gas fired power plants have implications for the future of the electric grid. These rules may lead to changes in the power generation mix—shifting to more renewable sources in favor of fossil-fuel plants. Join POLITICO on Oct. 25 for a deep-dive conversation on what it will take to ensure a reliable electric grid for the future. REGISTER NOW .

NIGHTLY NUMBER

4.9 percent

The annual rate of growth of the U.S. GDP over the third quarter of 2023 , as Americans defied higher prices, rising interest rates and widespread forecasts of a recession to spend at a brisk pace. The Commerce Department said the economy expanded last quarter at the fastest pace in more than two years — and more than twice the 2.1% annual rate of the previous quarter.

RADAR SWEEP

THE LITERARY ‘IT GIRL’ — Just as the publishing business has changed the kinds of books that get greenlighted, so too has the marketing strategy for authors . The press tour after a book is released still exists, but now it’s being supplemented with a group of authors and literary magazines that are throwing big parties, shaking up what the “book launch party” looks like. Authors have found that curating a personality or brand, and showing that to the world, helps to sell books. And they’re having fun doing so. Sophia June reports on the “makings of a literary ‘it girl’” for NYLON.

PARTING IMAGE

On this date in 1993: Residents of the Port-au-Prince neighborhood Cité Soleil, make their way to the downtown market. Normally they are picked up by buses, however, with a week-long oil embargo in effect, the only way to get there was on foot. | Michael Stravato/AP Photo