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We’re three days out together, and the number I keep coming back to is zero. That’s how many state legislative seats Republicans have flipped from Democrats since Trump took office. Bring the person you’ll be texting all night Tuesday into our live war room on Substack with a gift subscription, or go all in as a founding member.
And if you want to chip in for these last three days, my Venmo is https://venmo.com/u/dworkinreport
Great News That’s Terrible For Trump Three Days Out
A scoreboard Republicans can’t explain, Trump’s last midterm, his January problem, and a race won by fewer than 100 votes.
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Thanks so much for being here, and happy Halloween.
Before you read on, tap the ❤️ like button then hit restack, the two curved arrows right beside it. Restacking puts this edition in front of everyone who follows you on Substack.
This weekend, we’re putting reminders to vote in front of millions of people in the states that decide Congress. We’re also running one of our strongest social media pushes yet. That’s what our paid subscribers make possible. They also get my election night guide today and a seat in our live war room Tuesday at 8:30 PM Eastern. Join us here.
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Thirty-One To Nothing
Since Trump retook office, Democrats have taken 31 state legislative seats away from Republicans, including special elections and last year’s races in Virginia and New Jersey. Republicans have flipped zero.
On March 10, Bobbi Boudman won a New Hampshire House seat in a district Republicans carried by more than 13 points in 2024. Just two weeks later, Navy Vet and union organizer Brian Nathan flipped a Florida Senate seat near Tampa by 408 votes, even though he was outspent nearly seven to one.
Heather Williams, president of the Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee, said: “Tuesdays are becoming a headache for state Republicans across the country as they suffer one stunning defeat after another.”
In February, Republicans chased after an open Louisiana House seat in a district Trump carried by 13. Democrat Chasity Verret Martinez won in a total wipeout, 62 to 38. In April, Trump’s hand-picked candidate for Marjorie Taylor Greene’s old Georgia seat only won by about 12 points in a district Trump had carried by 37—a 25-point swing.
Voters have spent two years rejecting Trump’s Republicans. But on Tuesday, it’s the whole ballgame.
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We Already Beat Trump In A Midterm
On election night in 2018, Trump posted, “Tremendous success tonight. Thank you to all!” In that election, Democrats gained 41 House seats and took the majority. It was our biggest House gain since 1974, and turnout was the highest for any midterm since 1914.
History was on our side then, and it still is. Since 1946, the president’s party has lost House seats in 18 of 20 midterms. Trump goes into this one weaker than he was for the last one. In mid-October, Reuters/Ipsos had his approval at 31 percent, the lowest it has recorded in either of his terms. Their newest poll has Trump at 32, with registered voters preferring Democrats for Congress 47 to 36.
In 2019, the new Democratic House started subpoenaing Trump’s people, and by December it had impeached him. This time they can move even faster.
Trump is a sore loser who called a blue wave crashing on Congress a success. Let’s hand him another “tremendous success” on Tuesday.
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January’s To-Do List Is Already
Written
After Trump fired the inspectors general—the ones responsible for rooting out fraud in the government—the GOP Congress shrugged. In September 2025, Judge Ana Reyes wrote that Trump “violated the IGA. That much is obvious.” The IGA is the law that was supposed to protect them.
In November 2025, the Pentagon announced a $620 million conditional loan commitment to Vulcan Elements. It’s a magnet company that 1789 Capital, where Don Jr. is a partner, bought into just three months earlier.
Vulcan said it got no special treatment. But ProPublica had a source that stated, “The call came from the White House: We have to get this done.” Don Jr.’s spokesman said he didn’t know how the deal came together. In March, Democrats moved to subpoena Don Jr. and have him answer questions under oath. Republicans, of course, voted it down and closed the hearing.
A Democratic House would change that. Rep. Robert Garcia is in line to chair the Oversight Committee, where he’d be able to issue subpoenas. The fired watchdogs could testify under oath and tell the world what they were investigating when Trump fired them.
Republicans have spent a decade shielding Trump as much as possible—two years blocking nearly everything. On Tuesday, we can end that.
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The Man Who Won By Fewer Than
100 Votes
On August 18, Brandon Dukes, a loan administrator, ran for a state House seat in Pennsylvania’s Butler County that Republicans had held for more than 25 years. Nearly 17,000 people voted, and Dukes won by fewer than 100.
On election night, with the race still too close to call, Dukes made sure nobody got left out. “We want to count every vote, every provisional, every overseas voter,” he said. On September 8, he took the oath of office. On Tuesday, he’s on the ballot again against the same Republican, Scott Timko, this time for a full term.
That’s the difference a small number of votes can make—that YOU can make. So if you haven’t voted yet, make your plan right now. You can find your polling place and hours on your state’s election office website.
Vote for every race on your ballot, all the way to the bottom. Then contact friends and family and make sure they vote. Ask again Monday. If you have an afternoon, give it to a campaign by making calls or driving someone to the polls.
Trump is a coward who’s counting on people like us to stay home this election. Let’s disappoint him.
Know someone who belongs in the war room with us Tuesday night? Gift them a subscription.
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The Morning Briefing: Three Days
Out
Election night results come in waves. The first numbers can play tricks on us. Here’s what to watch, hour by hour, in Eastern time.
7 PM: Our defense reports first. Polls close in Georgia, and most of New Hampshire and Florida. As of now, it looks like our side will hold Georgia and New Hampshire.
7:30 PM: North Carolina could be our first flip. It’s our likeliest pickup. North Carolina usually posts its early votes soon after the polls close, so the first batch will be big. Ohio closes at the same time.
8 PM: This is the big hour. Polls will close in Maine, Mississippi, and Pennsylvania, along with most of Kansas, Michigan, and Texas.
9 PM: The Midwest can turn it into a wave. Iowa, Nebraska, Minnesota, and the rest of Kansas close. Trump won Iowa, Kansas, and Nebraska easily in 2024.
Alaska won’t finish on Tuesday. The first results come in around 1 AM Eastern. If neither candidate clears 50 percent, Alaska won’t count the ranked-choice ballots until November 18. The regime is already suing to keep Alaska from certifying the result if Sen. Dan Sullivan narrowly loses, so we’ll be watching it closely.
The House might take a while. Western states tend to count slowly. There’s a chance it won’t be called on Tuesday, but if it is, my guess is it will be by around 11 PM.
The Bottom Line: We need a net gain of four Senate seats, and we need to win at least 218 House seats. Let’s work like we’re behind, sprint through the finish, and win.
I’ve been fighting Trump for more than ten years now. There is no way in hell I will slow down for these last three days. Because that’s all that’s left between us and electing a Congress that will finally hold him and his goons accountable.
We still need 34 more paid subscribers before Sunday night to reach our goal. Join today, and you’ll get my morning briefing and a seat with me in the war room live at 8:30 PM Eastern on election night. You’ll also be supporting our new pressure campaign on Congress, which launches the morning after the election. Join us here.
Before you go, hit the ❤️ like button and restack this edition so people know that momentum is clearly on our side.
Onward!
Scott
When are you voting, or did you already go?
Where were you on election night in 2018?
Thanks for your support! Another way to help us out is by gifting subscriptions to friends and family! You can get yours by clicking the link.
For all contact Congress links, or to volunteer, you can go here: https://actionnetwork.org/forms/sign-up-for-the-watchdog-coalition
Three days left. Republicans are scared this Halloween—of Tuesday. Four letters, two minutes:
Impeach John Roberts:
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-congress-impeach-supreme-court-chief-justice-john-roberts/
Back impeachment for Trump:
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-congress-begin-drafting-articles-of-impeachment-against-trump/
Keep armed agents away from our polls:
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-congress-stop-trump-from-sending-troops-to-our-polling-places/
Stop Trump's grab for your state's elections:
https://actionnetwork.org/letters/tell-congress-stop-trumps-move-to-take-over-state-elections/
Tell me below which ones you sent.
JUST A FEW OF MANY COMMENTS:
We’ve already shown what happens when we show up. In three days, we’ll show them again.
From your lips to God's ear, Sam!! It is my fervent hope that we will show them again!!
Pro Publica never ceases to amaze us. Starting January 3rd it needs to be a 24/7 news outlet that has congressional hearings to indict, prosecute, convict these monsters into the dustbin of history.
We can’t govern if we don’t rid ourselves of the hateful enablers of this regime. And those who have remained on the sidelines while others have fought. This means pressing Dem leadership to vow to clean up our political system. We have choices. They must be good ones.
https://albellenchia.substack.com/p/what-matters?r=7wk5d&utm_medium=ios
Go, Pro Publica — Save the People! Save the Country! — NOW! (with thanks to Laura Nyro)
Scott, already voted in red Naples, Fl, but I voted BLUE all the way!
Brenda, so HAPPY to hear.
Beautiful Naples…way to go Brenda🙌🏻
Thank you Brenda and to all that have voted!
We both voted early for Dems down the ticket. Thanks for the update.
Great Saturday read! Almost there. Thanks for everything you do Scott.
Reporting from Erie County, NY. My son, daughter-in-law, daughter, son-in-law and I all voted blue right across the board. I am working Tuesday. Not sure how many people will vote that day since there were long lines at all the early polling stations. We all need to be prepared what illegal stunts Trump will pull up to election day, on election day and after. It ain't over until it's over.
Already voted in NY 17 Blue all the way...most notably for the outstanding Cait Conley to defeat maga Mike Lawler. Go Cait! Go NY Dens!💙💙💙💙💙
Everything seems to be looking like a blue wave here in Texas. My Talarico shirts always elicit at least a smile. The last several weeks people had to at least tell me they loved my shirts.
Hi Carol, I'm in Maine, so never saw your shirt. But I am damn proud of the person who wore it. You go girl❣️
I think many countries are hoping the US will "turn blue". Thankyou for this post. It will helps us look at what is occurring in important states. Many outsiders are with you and concerned for the mid- terms.
YES! I have voted! I voted on Friday, October 23 and it was blue up and down the ballot!! Florida will most likely not flip any seats because we are a VERY red state. I would love to see David Jolly as our governor, but we will most likely wind up with Donalds. The ads that have been running on TV are simply awful! The republicans lie all the way through the ads and use trigger words like 'radical', 'socialist', 'liberal' etc. They speak in such a disgusted tone about their opponents, but never say what they will do if elected. Our candidates have spoken about the issues we are all facing like affordability, taxes, insurance, Medicare etc. Apparently here in Florida, it is and may always be about 'owning the libs'. Keep fighting, America! Stay strong and stay safe!! VOTE BLUE IN NOVEMBER!!
Go Blue Poems
A new poem daily until after the election.
The 118th Congress has forgone dignity for humiliation
Republicans, it's country first, heed the Constitution
It began by protecting a president whose ego is fragile
When criticized, he whines and waves DOJ's rattle
Our country was built on the backs of immigrants
ICE killing immigrants and Americans shows their arrogance
Steven Miller's ICE policies of cruelty were his intent
To display the powers of an out of control president
There is nothing Supreme about our highest court
They rule from the bench, the laws they distort
Their judgments are tainted by too many favors
From billionaires who have become their enslavers
Not all in the high court have been tainted
Even with their dissents, justice is still interrupted
The best lawyers had to go in the DOJ
Trump didn't want anyone to get in his way
Reality is patient, but only if there is accountability
Republicans have forsaken their constitutional duty
Trump and his cronies are running this town
Trump and his policies are keeping us down
Donald brags about profits he made on the campaign trail
Oil companies are making trillions. Trump hails
His war has us paying more at the gas pump
Don's and the oil companies' statements make a jump
When our government isn't balanced, things go wrong
Our three branches have been left wobbling too long
I long for the American values from my youth
When presidents were respected for telling the truth
Eisenhower and Kennedy, everyone respected
They honorably served, and then they were elected
Eisenhower improved our lives with his steadfast guidance
Kennedy stood up to Khrushchev when America made its stance
Now Donald's crime family make deals with Russian criminals
How does this help America? Trump is all transactional
America was the shining star for all democracies
Now, we are in the business of protecting kleptocracies
We've been stuck in an evil Halloween scenario
One more reason Republicans deserve to go
Please restack and share my poems on FB and elsewhere, so the message is seen. Thanks, Packy Paules ✌️
👏🏻👏🏻
Voted last week👍🏻😁
I'm anxious to see the number of Republican's votes.....THAT WERE NEVER ABLE TO BE BOUGHT❣️
It is still an uphill fight. A “tight” race is by no means a sure thing, and there are too many of those to get too comfortable too soon. Let’s keep our heads down, get to the polls, make sure that everyone we know does the same…this has got to be TOO BIG TO RIG or rigged and disputed it shall be. Let’s do this!!!!
Already voted and did the same early in 2018! Scott you rock!
Nice Packy🗳️
Great poem!
sent vote in long ago.
I can't wait for Tuesday night!
Is that 4 needed for senate taking Fetterman into account?
Yes, I did vote already and BLUE all the way! If you haven't voted yet get out there and vote our democracy depends on it. Thank you Scott for all of your efforts
I’m crossing all fingers, toes, heart and eyes!
Still very wary of the Felon, Inc. shenanigans from today forward.
January 3 cannot come soon enough…
NRIP (No RIP) to all who’ve worked at destroying America and its true patriots.
Hopefully our GOOD will overcome their EVIL
🇺🇸WE THE PEOPLE 🇺🇸
I voted yesterday! "...a Congress that will finally hold him and his goons accountable" -- there are no sweeter words. Let's make sure it happens.