The outrage in the Muslim world over the transgression of the red line in anti-Muslim politics in India is understandable, although the ruling Bharatiya Janata Party acted swiftly for damage control. The point is, the world has taken note that anti-Muslim politics has reached a crescendo in India and is undermining the country’s democratic foundations.
The US state department last week flagged the gravity of the situation in India under the watch of the Modi government. Therefore, the big question is, whether the BJP’s damage control in the present case absolves the government of responsibility. That remains a grey zone.
True to a pattern, top government officials have disappeared. The Indian public is by now used to such a drama where the government distances itself ostentatiously in the downstream of the abhorrent behaviour of the ruling party’s cadres (“core constituency”), and life moves on.
But in this age of the Internet, the international community is erudite enough to form own opinions and would know that the Indian state and the Party do not live in different planets.
The Indian establishment is in denial mode while it has been discernible that In West Asia, the tide of public opinion has perceptibly changed unfavourably for India in the recent years. This has profound geo-strategic implications that would be felt in due course inevitably, and could only be to the detriment of Indian interests and regional influence in the medium and long term. If that happens, do not sit upon the ground and lament that China has outpaced India in “soft power” in its extended neighbourhood.
The West Asian regimes have traditionally taken a pragmatic outlook. The UAE even allowed Prime Minister Modi to solemnise the opening of a Hindu temple in the Emirate. But then, the UAE is a strange country with only something like 7 or 8 percent of the country’s population comprising native Arabs and has nothing by way of “public opinion.” Suffice to say, the actual feelings in the hearts and minds of the Arab ruling elite toward India in the recent years are hard to tell.
The entrenched opinion in India is that the Arab elites are rank opportunists and have scant regard for Islam themselves. Indians generally, including the expert opinion, viewed the Abraham Accords as a manifestation of the political chicanery of the ruling elites in the Muslim Middle East. This is of course a complete misunderstanding of the actual situation, as it basically confuses the Palestinian issue with the religiosity of the Muslim nations. Saudi Arabia’s refusal to join the UAE to recognise Israel signals the high level of sensitivity of the ruling family to domestic public opinion.
No doubt, such misunderstanding has wrought havoc with sections of the foreign and security policy elite and impacted the Indian policies over time. There is even a body of opinion that India should align with Israel and participate in its divisive politics in the Gulf region.
It stands to reason that such excessive behaviour by two BJP top officials last week would only have reflected a common perception in the high echelons of the party circles that so long as India does “win-win” business with the sheikhs, it can get away with anti-Muslim bigotry at home.
But that is sheer naïveté. Pan-islamism is a fact of history. Thus, the government has been caught on the wrong foot by the strong backlash in the Muslim world. Most countries in the Gulf have reportedly made demarche at the diplomatic level. Even Jordan which has a stellar record of “moderate Islam” has denounced. The social media reports say the West Asian nations demand “public apology” from the Indian government.
Surely, the stance of Saudi Arabia and Iran will be the key templates here. Both countries have not minced words in their condemnation. That said, it is also significant that the Saudi Foreign Ministry “welcomes the action taken by the BJP to suspend the spokeswoman from work.” Equally, Iran’s foreign ministry has taken note after a meeting with the Indian ambassador in Tehran that the latter “expressed regret over the issue and described as unacceptable any affront to Islam’s Prophet.”
It underscored, “The Indian envoy said this is not the stance of the Indian government which has utmost respect for all faiths. He added that the person who insulted the Prophet Muhammad (Peace Be Upon Him) holds no government post and only had a position in a party from which he was sacked.”
Clearly, both Riyadh and Tehran have gone the extra league to contain the acrimony from exacerbating at the hands of irascible or radical elements in the “Ummah”. Unsurprisingly, Pakistan has jumped into the fray with alacrity.
Iran’s Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian was due to arrive in India later this week. Hopefully, the visit goes ahead as planned. India and Iran have an urgent need to reset their relationship against the backdrop of the high turbulence in the world order and the increasing fragility of the international system.
Without doubt, Tehran has an obligation to speak up on Muslim issues anywhere in the world, per the country’s 1979 constitution embodying the legacy of the Islamic Revolution. But, that said, Iran has no record of intervening or interfering in the internal affairs of India. On the contrary, Iran has been a willing partner in trying times.
Even in 1992, following the events in Ayodhya and the downstream developments and communal violence, Tehran voiced its strong concerns and disquiet at the diplomatic level while the inter-state relationship continued to run its course. In fact, in August 1993, then Prime Minister Narasimha Rao undertook a historic visit to Iran during which he addressed the Majlis — first leader from a non-Islamic country to do so — and was accorded a reception at the Qom Seminary by the leading Muslim clerics and was received by Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei.
Of course, the present situation is different since it crossed all the parameters of permissiveness and touched the most sacred strings of the Muslim psyche, but this also leaves a slur on India’s heritage as a “civilisation state.” Words are not sufficient to condemn the incident. The government should, without reservations, speak up.
And that is best done by actions. First and foremost, this moment must be taken seriously as a wake-up call as regards the dangers of the BJP nurturing bigotry for reasons of political expediency. Second, India’s unique status as a country with one of the largest Muslim populations in the world (and yet its exclusion from the OIC) poses severe challenges to Indian diplomacy.
Our approach is insufficient and archaic — and episodic. Such excessive attention to Europe and America in South Block’s diplomacy is not only unwarranted but also risks neglect of India’s “near abroad” where India has vital interests. Surely, there must be some way India can take advantage of the Saudi and Iranian goodwill? Emulate Chinese and Russian diplomacy.
Third, in such situations, the government must continue to act with the same decisiveness against the rogue elephants in the BJP tent. Alas, the buck stops with PM Modi. No matter his visions for a future India, the plain truth is that India cannot progress optimally so long as almost one-fifth of the country’s population stands excluded from development and alienated from national mainstream. Modi only can cut this Gordian knot.
M.K. Bhadrakumar is a former Indian diplomat.
Ukraine President Zelensky appealed for more weapons to arrive faster, saying things could become very difficult for Ukraine if Russian forces broke through front lines in Donbas, the eastern region where Severodonetsk is the main city not in Russian hands.
Media reports said:
Britain has promised to send its first long-range missiles to Ukraine after a similar U.S. pledge which triggered Vladimir Putin to threaten to strike new targets.
The Kremlin warned the West that any supplies of long-range weapons to Ukraine, including from Britain, would force them to increase efforts to push back Ukrainian troops further from Russia’s border.
Sievierodonetsk And Lysychansk Are ‘Dead Cities’
Weeks of intense fighting have taken a devastating toll on the eastern Ukrainian cities of Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk, Zelensky said on Monday.
They are both “dead cities”, Zelensky declared. Ukrainian forces are outnumbered by Russian troops in Sievierodonetsk, where battles are taking place from street to street amid heavy shelling. Russia is aiming to capture Sievierodonetsk and Lysychansk so it can have control over the entire Luhansk region.
Zelensky visited Lysychansk on Sunday, and resident Oleksandr Lyakhovets told Agence France-Presse that soon after the president left, a Russian missile hit his apartment building. “They shoot here endlessly,” Lyakhovets said, adding, “It’s a horror show.”
Ukraine’s Position Has ‘Worsened’ In Severodonetsk
Russia escalated its assault on the battlefield Monday, pummeling a city that has emerged as a key battleground in the east as Moscow expanded sanctions against those who have condemned its actions during the war.
The fight for Severodonetsk has “worsened for us,” Serhiy Haidai, governor of the Luhansk region, said in a televised interview. Russian forces have been shelling and expanding their footprint in the city, though Ukrainian troops remain in control of its industrial zone.
The creeping losses come as the West scrambles to send Ukraine more firepower as fighting in the country’s eastern Donbas region intensifies.
It will take at least a few weeks for Ukrainian forces to be trained in how to use the longer-range weapons, U.S. officials have said, and it remains unclear whether the West’s combined efforts to arm Ukraine with more powerful systems will be enough to beat back Russia’s recent advances.
New Russian Air Defense Systems In The Black Sea
The British Defense Ministry reported Monday that Russia is likely have installed new air defense systems in the Black Sea, south of Odessa on Snake Island. The antiaircraft missile units believed to be stationed there would provide cover for its ships operating in the area.
Dead Bodies of Ukrainian Fighters
An AP report said:
Russia has begun to turn over to Ukraine the bodies of Ukrainian fighters killed during the siege of the Azovstal steel plant in Mariupol.
The remains are undergoing DNA testing to verify identities.
Ukrainian Victory Not In The Cards, Says Former Top U.S. Official
Ukraine would not be able to win against Russia, and the U.S. must persuade Kiev to negotiate with Moscow to end the conflict, Hugh De Santis, who oversaw NATO and arms control policy planning in the Reagan administration, has insisted.
Defeating the Russian forces on the battlefield and restoring Ukraine’s territorial integrity, including taking back Crimea, ‘would be condign punishment for Russia’s unprovoked invasion,’ De Santis wrote in his opinion piece for The National Interest magazine on Saturday (To End the War, NATO Must Push Ukraine to Negotiate with Russia, The National Interest, June 4, 2022, https://nationalinterest.org/blog/buzz/end-war-nato-must-push-ukraine-negotiate-russia-202787).
‘But would it be worth the cost of more carnage in Ukraine, the possibility of a wider war in which chemical or tactical nuclear weapons might be used, further disruption of the world economy, and renewed European polarization?’ he asked.
According to De Santis, the answer to that question is negative.
De Santis served on the Policy Planning Staff of U.S. Secretary of State George Shultz and was responsible for NATO and arms control on the Policy Planning Staff of Shultz. He later directed the European Security Project at Carnegie Endowment and chaired the Department of National Security Strategy at the National War College.
‘A Ukrainian military victory is not in the cards, and a negotiated outcome is the only realistic goal,’ he insisted.
Because of this, ‘the U.S. and its allies must persuade Kiev to bring this war to an end, including by imposing limits on further military aid as leverage,’ De Santis suggested.
Zelensky and ‘his advocates in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states’ should come to terms with the fact that Ukraine will become a neutral state and that it would have to hand over the Donbass and Crimea to Russia for the peace talks to be successful, he pointed out.
Current high-ranking US and EU officials have also recently identified negotiations as the preferred outcome of the conflict as Russian forces continue their steady advance in the Donbass.
Last week, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, General Mark Milley, said that “a negotiated outcome is a logical choice, but both sides have to come to that conclusion on their own.’
A few days before that, EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell urged the bloc to increase deliveries of weapons to Ukraine and apply even more sanctions against Russia, but explained that it should be done to help Kiev strengthen its position in future peace talks with Moscow. Just over a month ago, Borrell was insisting that “this war must be won on the battlefield” by Ukraine.
The former top U.S. official wrote:
‘But thousands more civilians have perished, including 10,000 in Mariupol alone. The war has also ravaged Ukraine’s infrastructure and, although precise figures are hard to quantify, the Kyiv School of Economics estimates that the aggregate damage is approaching $100 billion. Even if the war ended tomorrow, the International Monetary Fund reckons that the Ukrainian economy will contract by 35 percent this year.’
He wrote:
‘Amply supplied with arms from the United States and its NATO allies — artillery, Javelin anti-tank missiles, Stinger anti-aircraft systems, drones, and now the M777 howitzer — Ukrainian leaders and military commanders are increasingly confident of victory over the Russian invaders. Buoyed by supportive rhetoric from NATO members — such as calls from U.S. political leaders to weaken Russia and persevere until victory is won and the Estonian prime minister’s declaration that “peace can’t be the ultimate goal” — Ukrainian officials have pleaded for even more lethal weapons.
‘NATO’s transfer of more advanced weapons, however, could also be self-destructive. Having lost the Cold War in 1991, a paranoid Putin may resort to the use of chemical or tactical nuclear weapons to avert a second humiliating defeat by NATO. A strike against the territory of Poland or one of the Baltic states, as Biden has promised, would invoke NATO’s collective defense clause in the Washington Treaty and expand the war precariously beyond Ukraine.
‘Even if confined to Ukraine, however, protracted warfare will further roil the world economy and financial markets already weakened by Covid-induced supply chain disruptions. The cost of energy has risen dramatically in the past three months. This has contributed to higher inflation and rising interest rates, which are raising the cost of servicing foreign debt in developing countries. Reduced supplies of wheat from Ukraine and Russia have also sent prices skyward, posing a challenge for poor countries in Africa and South Asia to feed their people and maintain social order.
‘In addition to these dire social, economic, and military consequences, continued warfare will erode the possibility of creating a peaceful and stable Europe. Having come to the defense of Ukraine, the United States and its allies must persuade Kyiv to bring this war to an end, including by imposing limits on further military aid as leverage. A Ukrainian military victory is not in the cards, and a negotiated outcome is the only realistic goal. To achieve it, Zelenskyy and his advocates in Eastern Europe and the Baltic states must accept that Ukraine will be a neutral state and that it will concede to Russia the Donbas oblasts of Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as Crimea. Given the sentiment of Russian separatists in the Donbas, retaining the region would be fraught with continuing tension in the future.’
The article said:
‘The accession of territory in the Donbas would help bring Russia to the negotiating table. As odious as Putin is, the focus of peace talks should be on restoring European stability rather than treating Russia as a pariah, which would be politically and militarily counterproductive. As part of a broader peace settlement, NATO should agree to open an ongoing dialogue with Russia on mutual security concerns encompassing military deployments and exercises in countries bordering Russia and its Kaliningrad enclave on the Baltic Sea.’
Ukrainian Military Units Continue Rebelling Against Commanders
A report in A Son of the New American Revolution (28 May 2022 by Larry Johnson, https://sonar21.com/ukrainian-military-units-betrayed-by-their-commanders/) said:
‘When I wrote this piece initially last week, I identified 6 Ukrainian units that filmed themselves rebelling against their chain of command. These “rebellion” videos came on the heels of the surrender of more than 2500 members of the AZOV battalion at Mariupol. Now the number is 12 – that is 12 different units in the Donbas. They all voice the same complaints about their chain of command for not properly supplying them with the weapons and equipment they need to fight. This is not your normal troop bitching about conditions. All soldiers in all wars throughout history have passed the time complaining about lousy food, terrible weather, inept commanders and stupid decisions. What you see below is unprecedented in my memory.
These soldiers still believe in fighting for Ukraine but are not keen on being used as a Russian punching bag. They believe their commanders are asking them to commit suicide. Below you can watch videos of soldiers from 12 units presenting a formal demand to President Zelensky and the Ukrainian General in Command of the Ukrainian Armed Forces. This is appearing on Ukrainian social media. It is not a Russian propaganda piece. Here are the units:
- 13th Battalion of 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade
- 2nd Company of the 46th Rifle Battalion
- 3rd Platoon of the 46th Infantry Battalion
- 115th Brigade
- 3rd Platoon of the 115th Brigade
- 71st Jaeger Infantry Brigade
- Ukrainian 14th Brigade: 6th Battalion, 4th, 5th, and 6th companies
- Cherkasy Territorial Defense
- 95th Separate Airborne Assault Brigade
- 30th Mechanized Brigade 3rd Battalion 9th Company
- 57th Motorized Brigade
- 18th Marine Battalion of the 35th Brigade
- 13th Battalion of 58th Motorized Infantry Brigade
- 2nd Company of the 46th Rifle Battalion
- 3rd Platoon of the 46th Infantry Battalion
- 115th Brigade
- 3rd Platoon of the 115th Brigade
- 71st Jaeger Infantry Brigade
- Ukrainian 14th Brigade: 6th Battalion, 4th, 5th, and 6th companies
- Cherkasy Territorial Defense
- 95th Separate Air Assault Brigade
- 30th Mechanized Brigade 3rd Battalion 9th Company
- 57th Motorized Brigade
- 18th Marine Battalion of the 35th Brigade
I know this is a ton of material. Those of you who believe this is all stage managed by the Russians need to explain why this is being posted on Ukrainian social media accounts. These are real Ukrainian soldiers and they are taking major risks in speaking up. This is not just one or two disgruntled privates bitching about cold chow. The members of each unit clearly felt the need to be seen supporting their spokesman.
If you took the time to watch each one you come away with enormous respect for the courage and integrity of the men speaking. I believe they are patriots who have been deceived into fighting for a false cause. But they are brave, honorable soldiers.
Being brave and honorable does not immunize one against thermobaric and conventional artillery blasts pounding the ground around your fox hole or trench. We are not talking metaphor. The blast waves pummel the body and brain of those subjected to these barrages. It is because to the stepped up Russian offensive that these Ukrainian troops are speaking up. I think the Ukrainian expression is, “Черт, нет, мы не пойдем” (i.e., Hell no, we won’t go).
At a minimum, I think this may account for rumors about coup plans to oust Zelensky. Zelensky clearly is losing critical support among the Ukrainian troops. I think it is only a matter of time before commanders start to follow.
Larry C. Johnson writes about himself:
“I am a bona fide Son of American Revolutionaries. At least 24 of my ancestors, men and women, fought to free the American Colonies from British rule. Some died for the cause of liberty. Though two and a half centuries have passed since my great grandfathers and grandmothers took up arms, the principles they fought for remain valid and relevant to the 21st Century. This blog, which remains affiliated with Sic Semper Tyrannis, is dedicated to the pursuit of truth without regard to partisan advantage.”
He claims to be “a veteran of the CIA and the State Department’s Office of Counter Terrorism, and founder of magazine BERG Associates (est. 1998).
He also claims that he has been vilified by the right and the left.
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