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“A ‘Little Epic Fury’? Impossible.”
Trump calls a new war with Iran a ‘little’ Epic Fury. With oil at $117 and Iran vowing a painful response, nothing about it is little.
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Guest article by Brett Erickson, Managing Principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors
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Speaking to the press yesterday, President Trump stated that the United States may return to war with Iran for a “little” Epic Fury. While this may sound better than what many people had feared, it is also entirely absurd and detached from easily observable shifts in the strategic landscape since Epic Fury initially began.
First and foremost, it should be immediately acknowledged that the global energy markets? Yeah… they’re not doing so great. Global strategic petroleum reserves have been immensely depleted. The Bab al-Mandeb is now under effective control of Ansar Allah (Houthis) in Yemen. Refined products - gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, etc - have been CRUSHED as a result of this war. And even despite a “significant” amount of oil moving through the Strait of Hormuz… Brent is $117/barrel. WTI is $103. Diesel? $6.35. And the crowd favorite in gasoline? $4.29. Isn’t it LOVELY?!
But beyond just the energy markets, it should probably also be acknowledged that some silly gooses in Yemen are also wreaking a wee bit o’ havoc on their good friend Mohammed Bin Salman.
Yes, Ansar Allah, or the “Houthis” as much of the Western media refer to them as, have been going absolutely bananas on Saudi Arabia in the past month. Just in the past 48 hours alone, Ansar Allah has launched attacks FOUR separate times on the Saudi capital of Riyadh. If you believe the statements yesterday from AA spokesman Yahya Saree, Ansar Allah struck multiple pumping stations at the East-West Pipeline, along with the pipeline itself. Oh, along with Saudi Aramco infrastructure at Yanbu and Rabigh.
It goes well beyond just this though. The United States has a well-documented shortage of interceptor missiles, and as a result, is completely unable to come to the aid of Gulf countries if Iran retaliates (and they will) against any American/Israeli attack.
And this isn’t conjecture either. Multiple times now, it has been reported that MBS has BEGGED President Trump to come to his aid in his disastrous fight against Ansar Allah. But due to a combination of AA’s control over ol’ Bab’s, a shortage of interceptors, and an exhausted military, President Trump has stabbed his Corrupter-in-Chief in the back. You’re on your own buddy.
If President Trump won’t help MBS… OBVIOUSLY he’s not about to be the knight in shining armor for Bahrain, Kuwait, and Qatar.
But most of all, President Trump seemingly forgets one of THE MOST BASIC concepts in all of warfare:
The enemy gets a vote.
Despite multiple reports now that indicate that President Trump is likely preparing for a “limited” three day military operation against Iran… I mean cmon guys. Use your head here. It’s not UP TO President Trump how long the hot war phase then continues once the U.S. has fully kicked the hornets nest again. This isn’t rocket science, it’s basic critical thinking.
It seems to be the ACTUAL belief from the Trump Administration right now that the U.S. can bomb the crap out of Iran, potentially commit outright terrorism and war crimes by comprehensively targeting their power grid, and just… Iran will be cool with that, will abide by the three day timeline, and then we’ll just return to the Iran Cold War phase… Yes, that seriously seems to be how President Trump & Co think this will play out.
But we, dear reader, have more than a room temperature IQ. OF COURSE Iran is now just going to “go quietly”. They are prepared to escalate like their lives depend on it because… they most certainly DO.
Even the more “diplomatically inclined” members of the Iranian leadership have SIGNIFICANTLY altered their messaging in the past few weeks.
In an op-ed published by Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Aragchi in the Financial Times this past week, Araghchi states in the closing sentences:
“President Trump made mistaken assumptions about Iran when entering this war. Repeating that error now will only result in an infinitely more painful outcome.”
What should be very obvious at this point to anyone reading, is that the United States is in an EXTREMELY different position now than they were when this war initially began. The global energy markets are orders of magnitude more failed, the Saudi/Yemen War is an absolute disaster, and Iran is now acutely aware that the ONLY way to truly bring about an end to this war is by imposing FAR more pain on the global economy.
President Trump may want to control the pace of this war, but the reality is… He’s already lost all control.
Brett Erickson is the Managing Principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors and a board member of DePaul Biz and Seton Hall IR. His expertise in financial markets, risk management, and global affairs has been featured by major outlets including Bloomberg, Reuters, The New York Times, The Wall Street Journal, CNBC, and the BBC.
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