PURE MICHIGAN — With Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina in the rear-view mirror and the likely November presidential match-up in clear sight, it’s easy to overlook today’s Michigan primary election results. But don’t be fooled. This is one of the most consequential primaries to date, and what happens will provide as much insight into the race for the White House as any of the early state contests that preceded it. Michigan has played a central role in determining the outcome of both primaries and general elections in the last two presidential election cycles. The state enabled Donald Trump to breach the so-called Blue Wall in 2016; its flip four years later paved the way to Joe Biden’s victory. Less remembered is the pivotal role the state played in the last two Democratic presidential primaries. In 2016, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) pulled off a stunning upset of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, eking out a victory despite trailing by double digits in public polling — 538’s election forecast had given Clinton an over 99 percent chance of winning the state. The Sanders win kept his campaign alive in the short term, and in retrospect it presaged Clinton’s weakness in the Rust Belt that fall. In 2020, the script was reversed. After Sanders again spent significant time and resources in the state, Biden was the one who romped to victory, beating his progressive rival by over 15 points and securing his hold on the nomination. This go around, Michigan isn’t poised to play such a decisive role in the Democratic primary. But it will deliver valuable insights about the mood of Democratic voters in an essential swing state, particularly on a subject that’s currently tearing the party apart — the Israel-Hamas war. And it will provide a useful look at the mindset of the Republican rank and file in a place where the state GOP has imploded as a result of MAGA-oriented disputes. On the Democratic side, Biden biggest rival in Michigan is not another candidate but rather the “Uncommitted” ballot line — a protest vote gaining steam due largely to his steadfast support of Israel. Arab Americans in Michigan, many of whom have ties to Palestine or Palestinians, are among those leading the effort to send him a message via the ballot box; they’re backed by local leaders like Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and national figures including former presidential hopeful Beto O’Rourke. Biden supporters are publicly acknowledging that the campaign has legs and are trying to lower expectations for the president in the state; Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said today she expects a “sizable number of people” to vote “Uncommitted.” And while organizers of the “Uncommitted” effort are setting modest goals, there is some precedent for a big performance on the ballot line — in 2008, after Michigan moved its primary up to Jan. 15 causing most candidates other than Clinton to drop out in protest, “Uncommitted” got almost 40 percent of the vote. Where these votes are cast are of special interest because of the architecture of Biden’s 2020 general election victory. Against a backdrop of record-breaking statewide voter turnout, Biden rolled up huge numbers in Southeast Michigan, home to Detroit and its vote-rich suburbs. In suburban Oakland County, the second most populous in the state, Biden outpaced Trump by close to 110,000 votes. In Washtenaw County, which is home to the University of Michigan, Biden put up even more stunning totals, winning by close to 50 percentage points. If Washtenaw had produced similar numbers four years earlier, Hillary Clinton would have won the state. Tonight’s primary results will provide a glimpse at the level of enthusiasm for the president this year in these places, in addition to a snapshot of how his handling of the Middle East conflict is playing with a key demographic with whom he appears to be struggling — college students. As for Republicans, there’s unlikely to be much drama as to who wins the state either — Trump is well ahead in polls. But there are a few things to keep an eye on. One of them is Macomb County, Oakland’s more working class neighbor and famed home of Reagan Democrats. The third most populous county in the state, Macomb has become Trump Country after voting twice for Barack Obama. The GOP primary will reveal how much of that ardor for the former president still exists in a county that will be critical to his fortunes. In the three early state contests that preceded Michigan, Trump’s margins of victory have been smaller than polling averages predicted. If that trend continues, it’s worth asking whether the polls that famously underrated Trump’s chances in 2016 may not be overrating his support. The GOP primary (and the ensuing state nominating convention on March 2) might offer some clues as to the blast radius of the state party’s dysfunction and its effect on the grass roots. It’s been engulfed in chaos for some time, as the state party that’s recognized by the RNC and led by Pete Hoekstra tries to deal with the ousted MAGA state party chair, Kristina Karamo, who refuses to relinquish power and insists that she remains the rightful leader. She’s holding an alternate state convention to award delegates in the primary. If the mayhem continues, Republicans have every right to worry about the state party’s fitness in advance of what could easily be a razor-thin election in November. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh .
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