POLITICO Nightly: The Michigan primary is much more important than you think

 

BY CHARLIE MAHTESIAN AND CALDER MCHUGH A volunteer holds a sign asking voters to vote uncommitted and not to vote for President Joe Biden outside of Maples School in Dearborn, Mich. today. | Jeff Kowalsky/AFP via Getty Images PURE MICHIGAN — With Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina in the rear-view mirror and the likely November presidential match-up in clear sight, it’s easy to overlook today’s Michigan primary election results. But don’t be fooled. This is one of the most consequential primaries to date, and what happens will provide as much insight into the race for the White House as any of the early state contests that preceded it. Michigan has played a central role in determining the outcome of both primaries and general elections in the last two presidential election cycles. The state enabled Donald Trump to breach the so-called Blue Wall in 2016; its flip four years later paved the way to Joe Biden’s victory. Less remembered is the pivotal role the state played in the last two Democratic presidential primaries. In 2016, Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) pulled off a stunning upset of former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, eking out a victory despite trailing by double digits in public polling — 538’s election forecast had given Clinton an over 99 percent chance of winning the state. The Sanders win kept his campaign alive in the short term, and in retrospect it presaged Clinton’s weakness in the Rust Belt that fall. In 2020, the script was reversed. After Sanders again spent significant time and resources in the state, Biden was the one who romped to victory, beating his progressive rival by over 15 points and securing his hold on the nomination. This go around, Michigan isn’t poised to play such a decisive role in the Democratic primary. But it will deliver valuable insights about the mood of Democratic voters in an essential swing state, particularly on a subject that’s currently tearing the party apart — the Israel-Hamas war. And it will provide a useful look at the mindset of the Republican rank and file in a place where the state GOP has imploded as a result of MAGA-oriented disputes. On the Democratic side, Biden biggest rival in Michigan is not another candidate but rather the “Uncommitted” ballot line — a protest vote gaining steam due largely to his steadfast support of Israel. Arab Americans in Michigan, many of whom have ties to Palestine or Palestinians, are among those leading the effort to send him a message via the ballot box; they’re backed by local leaders like Rep. Rashida Tlaib (D-Mich.) and national figures including former presidential hopeful Beto O’Rourke. Biden supporters are publicly acknowledging that the campaign has legs and are trying to lower expectations for the president in the state; Michigan Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer said today she expects a “sizable number of people” to vote “Uncommitted.” And while organizers of the “Uncommitted” effort are setting modest goals, there is some precedent for a big performance on the ballot line — in 2008, after Michigan moved its primary up to Jan. 15 causing most candidates other than Clinton to drop out in protest, “Uncommitted” got almost 40 percent of the vote. Where these votes are cast are of special interest because of the architecture of Biden’s 2020 general election victory. Against a backdrop of record-breaking statewide voter turnout, Biden rolled up huge numbers in Southeast Michigan, home to Detroit and its vote-rich suburbs. In suburban Oakland County, the second most populous in the state, Biden outpaced Trump by close to 110,000 votes. In Washtenaw County, which is home to the University of Michigan, Biden put up even more stunning totals, winning by close to 50 percentage points. If Washtenaw had produced similar numbers four years earlier, Hillary Clinton would have won the state. Tonight’s primary results will provide a glimpse at the level of enthusiasm for the president this year in these places, in addition to a snapshot of how his handling of the Middle East conflict is playing with a key demographic with whom he appears to be struggling — college students. As for Republicans, there’s unlikely to be much drama as to who wins the state either — Trump is well ahead in polls. But there are a few things to keep an eye on. One of them is Macomb County, Oakland’s more working class neighbor and famed home of Reagan Democrats. The third most populous county in the state, Macomb has become Trump Country after voting twice for Barack Obama. The GOP primary will reveal how much of that ardor for the former president still exists in a county that will be critical to his fortunes. In the three early state contests that preceded Michigan, Trump’s margins of victory have been smaller than polling averages predicted. If that trend continues, it’s worth asking whether the polls that famously underrated Trump’s chances in 2016 may not be overrating his support. The GOP primary (and the ensuing state nominating convention on March 2) might offer some clues as to the blast radius of the state party’s dysfunction and its effect on the grass roots. It’s been engulfed in chaos for some time, as the state party that’s recognized by the RNC and led by Pete Hoekstra tries to deal with the ousted MAGA state party chair, Kristina Karamo, who refuses to relinquish power and insists that she remains the rightful leader. She’s holding an alternate state convention to award delegates in the primary. If the mayhem continues, Republicans have every right to worry about the state party’s fitness in advance of what could easily be a razor-thin election in November. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com . Or contact tonight’s authors at cmahtesian@politico.com and cmchugh@politico.com or on X (formerly known as Twitter) at @PoliticoCharlie and @calder_mchugh .   SUBSCRIBE TO GLOBAL PLAYBOOK: Don’t miss out on POLITICO’s Global Playbook, the newsletter taking you inside pivotal discussions at the most influential gatherings in the world, including WEF in Davos, Milken Global in Beverly Hills, to UNGA in NYC and many more. Suzanne Lynch delivers the world's elite and influential moments directly to you. Stay in the global loop. SUBSCRIBE NOW.   WHAT'D I MISS? — GOP impeachment investigators subpoena DOJ for Biden classified docs records: Lead Republicans on the impeachment inquiry into President Joe Biden today subpoenaed Attorney General Merrick Garland for records related to Special Counsel Robert Hur’s investigation. Hur, in a report released earlier this month, found that criminal charges related to Biden’s handling of classified documents wouldn’t be warranted even if DOJ lacked an internal policy against prosecuting sitting presidents. The report added that Biden “willfully retained and disclosed classified materials after his vice presidency,” but it didn’t “establish Mr. Biden’s guilt beyond a reasonable doubt.” — Johnson commits to avoiding shutdown during White House meeting: Speaker Mike Johnson made “unequivocally” clear that he wants to avoid a government shutdown during a private meeting today with President Joe Biden and other congressional leaders, according to Senate Majority Leader Chuck Schumer. Biden’s stalled request for Ukraine aid, however, remains more in doubt. With just four days to go until federal funding partially runs out, congressional leaders emerged from the meeting with the president optimistic they could avoid a shutdown, House Minority Leader Hakeem Jeffries said. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters at the Capitol that the meeting focused mainly on keeping the government open, “which I think we all can agree on.” — McConnell calls for full Mayorkas trial as Dems weigh quick dismissal: Top Senate Republicans are calling for a full impeachment trial for Homeland Security Secretary Alejandro Mayorkas , despite its doomed prospects. Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters this afternoon that a trial “would be the best way to go forward.” And Minority Whip John Thune (R-S.D.) said that the Senate needs to hold a trial and that “people need to be held accountable.” But many Democrats aren’t looking to hold a thorough trial, with even centrists like Sens. Joe Manchin (D-W.Va.) and Jon Tester (D-Mont.) saying they would support a quick dismissal. The Senate majority isn’t interested in furthering the GOP narrative about the Biden administration’s failures at the southern border. NIGHTLY ROAD TO 2024 PROMOTION SEASON — Joe Biden’s campaign has elevated Alana Mounce to serve as its political director , along with bringing on board two other senior hires, according to two people familiar with the decision, POLITICO reports. Mounce, who has been serving as the Biden campaign’s ballot access director, will take on the critical role of helping chart out an increasingly challenging reelection campaign. Prior to her current job, she served in the White House as the deputy political director in the Office of Political Strategy and Outreach. Mounce was Biden’s 2020 Nevada state director and was the executive director of the state Democratic Party before becoming political director at the Democratic National Committee. The Biden campaign also said that Roohi Rustum will serve as national organizing director and Meredith Horton will be the national director for voter protection and access. BE CAREFUL WHERE YOU GET YOUR INFORMATION! ROBOTS SPUTTERING — With presidential primaries underway across the U.S., popular chatbots are generating false and misleading information that threatens to disenfranchise voters , according to a report published today based on the findings of artificial intelligence experts and a bipartisan group of election officials, reports The Associated Press. Fifteen states and one territory will hold both Democratic and Republican presidential nominating contests next week on Super Tuesday, and millions of people already are turning to artificial intelligence -powered chatbots for basic information, including about how their voting process works. Trained on troves of text pulled from the internet, chatbots such as GPT-4 and Google’s Gemini are ready with AI-generated answers, but prone to suggesting voters head to polling places that don’t exist or inventing illogical responses based on rehashed, dated information, the report found. SHE’S IN — Donald Trump’s daughter-in-law Lara Trump officially kicked off her campaign to be Republican National Committee co-chair today, the latest step in the former president’s takeover of the RNC, reports POLITICO. Lara Trump wrote a letter to the 168 members of the RNC saying that she was “proud to have the endorsement of my father-in-law and 45th president, Donald J. Trump, for this position and understand the fundamental importance of this role.” AROUND THE WORLD French President Emmanuel Macron speaks during a press conference at the Elysee Palace in Paris on Feb. 26, 2024. | Gonzalo Fuentes/Pool via AP BRINKMANSHIP BATTLE — A conflict between Russia and NATO would be inevitable if Western troops go to Ukraine , Russian President Vladimir Putin’s spokesperson said today. The Kremlin’s comments come after French President Emmanuel Macron did not rule out putting boots on the ground in Ukraine as Kyiv struggles to fend off Russia’s full-scale invasion, POLITICO EU reports. While Macron noted that there was no consensus about troops at this stage, Ukraine has not asked allies for soldiers to fight its cause and other Western governments even scrambled today to insist troops were not set to be deployed, the mere suggestion sparked a furious response from Moscow. “In this case, we need to talk not about the likelihood, but about the inevitability [of a conflict]. That’s how we evaluate it,” said Dmitry Peskov, Putin’s press secretary. “These countries must also evaluate and be aware of this, asking themselves whether this corresponds to their interests, as well as the interests of the citizens of their countries,” Peskov added. Macron’s comments came at the tail end of a summit in Paris, where EU leaders gathered Monday to discuss ongoing support for Kyiv. Macron said defeating Russia is “indispensable” to Europe’s security and stability.   YOUR GUIDE TO EMPIRE STATE POLITICS: From the newsroom that doesn’t sleep, POLITICO's New York Playbook is the ultimate guide for power players navigating the intricate landscape of Empire State politics. Stay ahead of the curve with the latest and most important stories from Albany, New York City and around the state, with in-depth, original reporting to stay ahead of policy trends and political developments. Subscribe now to keep up with the daily hustle and bustle of NY politics.   NIGHTLY NUMBER 24,000 The number of jobs that the U.S. Army is slashing , as it restructures and struggles with recruiting shortfalls that have made it impossible to bring in enough soldiers to fill all the jobs. The cuts will mainly be in already-empty posts. RADAR SWEEP ON THE BOOK TOUR — Who are presidential candidates’ books for anymore? The memoir released in anticipation of a run for president has long been a staple of primary politics — and it was that way again this year, as multiple Republican candidates put out books. But as the publishing industry goes through contractions and it’s harder to sell books, the presidential candidates’ books have taken on a new form — they’re not so much for people to learn about the candidates as they are for the candidates to compare notes on who’s sharing what insider gossip and when. Mark Chiusano takes a deep dive into the books for The Drift. PARTING IMAGE On this date in 1989: Students burn effigies of South Korea's President Roh Tae-woo (left) and U.S. President George Bush during an anti-government and U.S. rally at Dong Kuk University in Seoul. | Katsumi Kasahara/AP Did someone forward this email to you?  Sign up here .   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Mia McCarthy @Reporter_Mia   FOLLOW US

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