Despite all the meet-and-greets a presidential candidate has during the campaign, it’s safe to say today is the first time a presumptive nominee has met with his probation officer. But that’s where we are.
For all those convicted of felonies in New York state, the probation department must produce a report for the judge before sentencing. The convicted felon — in this case, Donald Trump — is asked to participate.
Judge Juan Merchan will use the report to help guide him when handing down Trump’s criminal sentence. Don’t let the name fool you … just because Trump is meeting with probation officers doesn’t mean he’ll receive probation. The purpose of today’s interview is to determine Trump’s finances, employment, and criminal history. Also, if Trump were to show remorse or contrition for his crimes, the judge might be persuaded to hand down a lighter sentence.
Who are we kidding? Here’s what Trump wrote in an email blast to his supporters on Monday. “I’m actually about to speak to a probation officer after my RIGGED conviction.”
With language like that, in violation of the gag order that is still in place, Trump seems to be all-in on doing hard time. He said last week, in a not-so-veiled threat, that if he’s jailed, “I’m not sure the public would stand for it.”
To the contrary, if there’s one thing many in the public will have a problem with, it’s Trump walking away from 34 guilty counts without punishment.
Trump will also be asked by the probation officers about his association with other criminals. That should be easy, considering fellow convicts Roger Stone, Paul Manafort, and Steve Bannon remain in the former president’s inner circle.
We don’t know what transpired during the interview on Monday, but Trump was allowed to do it by Zoom from Florida and have an attorney present — conveniences not afforded to other convicted felons. The AP reported it was a brief interview consisting of “routine and uneventful questions.”
Sentencing is scheduled for July 11 in New York. Judge Merchan has some leeway. He could give Trump probation or community service. He could also levy a fine or a prison sentence of up to four years. What Merchan will do is anyone’s guess. Most first-time offenders convicted of these crimes don’t get prison time, but about 10 percent do. Trump’s repeated violation of the gag order, his lack of remorse, and his multiple indictments in other jurisdictions don’t help his case.
If Trump does receive a prison sentence, he will likely be released on bail pending an appeal. Then his lawyers have 120 days to file. Judge Merchan ran a very tight ship during the trial, leaving few avenues for appeal, according to legal experts who spoke with The New York Times. “Mark Zauderer, a veteran New York litigator who sits on a committee that screens applicants for the same court that will hear Mr. Trump’s appeal, said that Justice Merchan avoided pitfalls that often doom convictions. ‘This case has none of the usual red flags for reversal on appeal,’ Mr. Zauderer said. ‘The judge’s demeanor was flawless.’”
Also, appeals courts do not like to overturn jury decisions, barring obvious errors or misconduct. Regardless of the chances of reversal on appeal, the process will take months, if not years. So while it is unlikely Trump will be in prison on Election Day, he will be a convicted felon.
While awaiting sentencing, a not-at-all-remorseful Trump has been hitting the interview circuit spewing a theme of revenge. According to NBC News, in every one of his five post-conviction interviews, he has talked about retribution.
Dr. Phil and Sean Hannity, two of Trump’s friendliest interviewers, tried hard to steer him away from the topic.
“Sometimes revenge can be justified,” Trump told Dr. Phil, in reaction to his suggestion that retaliation would harm the country. On Fox, after Hannity practically begged him to say he would not punish his opponents, Trump said he would “have every right to go after them.”
What Trump is doing in these interviews, beyond threatening the American justice system, is equating legitimate prosecutions with baseless politically motivated ones. Pushing that false equivalency is incredibly dangerous, to the rule of law and to our democracy.
The vast majority of voters say nothing has changed since Trump’s conviction, but remember, a vast majority of voters have had their minds made up for months. According to several post-conviction polls, the race is tightening among the small number of independent voters in a handful of swing states that could decide the election.
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