POLITICO NIGHTLY: The Jan. 6 committee readies its grand finale

 

View in browser   BY MYAH WARD A video of former President Donald Trump is played at the January 6 hearings in June. | Anna Moneymaker/Getty Images CARDS ON THE TABLE — The Jan. 6 committee will return with possibly its last public hearing Thursday, a closing argument to conclude the panel’s blockbuster summer series. After a postponement due to Hurricane Ian, the committee will now convene less than a month from Election Day, when voters will make their own judgments on the weight of the evidence presented. A lot has happened in Trump world since the last time Americans saw the committee lay out the facts about the violent Capitol attack and the former president’s role in the scheme to hold onto power. The Justice Department is now investigating Donald Trump for his handling of classified documents after leaving the White House, and New York Attorney General Tish James has sued Trump, his company and his children, accusing them of large-scale fraudulent financial practices. With those developments serving as a backdrop, now the committee returns to the public spotlight. It has one last opportunity to lay out its case to Americans before it wraps up its investigation by the end of the congressional session. To get a sense of what to expect from Thursday’s hearing and what we might learn, Nightly chatted over Slack with POLITICO’s Kyle Cheney. It’s been a minute since we’ve had a public hearing. What would you say the committee has accomplished so far? A lot of what the public knows about Trump’s attempt to subvert the 2020 election and seize a second term is because of the select committee’s work. Much of it came in the form of court filings against figures like John Eastman and Mark Meadows, as well as in the correspondence between the select committee and other witnesses who they’ve sought to interview. While the DOJ was publicly piecing together the elements of the physical attack on the Capitol, the select committee jump-started the public’s understanding of what was happening at a higher level, among Trump, his aides and his enablers as he attempted to marshal forces inside and outside government to prevent Joe Biden’s inauguration. Now we’re seeing DOJ subpoena many of the same people the committee targeted months earlier. After a string of stunning hearings this summer, it feels like there’s a decent amount of pressure on this last one. What do you think the committee wants to accomplish Thursday, and do you think members will have the final act they’re hoping for? So far, we’ve learned relatively little about what the committee will feature in their final hearing, but they’ve promised it will be of the same caliber as the previous eight. We know the committee has obtained new footage of Trump ally Roger Stone in the weeks following the 2020 election, and we know they’ve conducted a series of interviews with members of Trump’s Cabinet about their discussions surrounding the 25th Amendment and whether to invoke it to remove Trump from power for the final two weeks of his presidency. And the panel also says it has obtained a significant trove of information from the Secret Service in the last couple of weeks. So they will probably lean heavily into the new material. We also know they attempted to obtain testimony from Wisconsin Assembly Speaker Robin Vos, who sued the committee on Sept. 25 to block a subpoena. They wanted Vos’ testimony about a call Trump made to him in July, pressuring him to support a measure decertifying the election in Wisconsin (which is not legally possible). So the panel is clearly focused on things that happened even after Trump’s presidency. Has the Mar-a-Lago investigation or the James suit muddied the waters for the committee at all, or diminished their work in any way?  I think they’ve certainly crowded out the committee in the headlines, particularly as the panel has been largely dark since July. The committee, though, has continued actively investigating and is likely to do so all the way through the finish line at the end of the congressional session. They’re aware that Thursday’s hearing comes against a very different backdrop than the one we saw pre-Mar-a-Lago. But while that may be a test for the public (and media’s) attention span, it doesn’t diminish the significant and urgent nature of the threats to democracy that they’ve shed light on. We’re quickly approaching Election Day, and Dems have really highlighted the threat to democracy as a key issue for voters. Do we have any read on what kind of impact the committee could have in November?  Well, the trope we heard for much of the year was that voters would not be thinking about this stuff when they go to the polls, particularly because Trump is not on the ballot. But Trump’s prevalence in the news, amid the traffic jam of investigations that we just discussed, has actually kept him and his polarizing presence at the forefront of voters’ minds, and I think we’ve seen Democrats lean into that in the closing weeks of the election cycle. Polls show voters do largely consider Trump culpable for what happened on Jan. 6 and are fearful about the state of democracy. The select committee’s hearings, which drew pretty significant viewership, may have played a role in that broader perception. The committee will also release a report soon. What do you expect from that?  I actually think it’s likely to come out in December, and I expect it to be a thorough distillation of their most potent evidence about how the attack on the Capitol unfolded, with a detailed analysis of Trump’s central role in motivating and stoking the forces that ultimately marched on the Capitol in his name. I suspect it’ll be organized in multiple chapters of volumes covering different themes related to the attack — similar to the way the hearings were divided. I’m most interested in whether the committee also releases its 1,000-plus transcripts, which could contain enormous quantities of new evidence that the select committee has yet to reveal. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mward@politico.com or on Twitter at @MyahWard.   SUBSCRIBE TO POWER SWITCH: The energy landscape is profoundly transforming. Power Switch is a daily newsletter that unlocks the most important stories driving the energy sector and the political forces shaping critical decisions about your energy future, from production to storage, distribution to consumption. Don’t miss out on Power Switch, your guide to the politics of energy transformation in America and around the world. SUBSCRIBE TODAY.     POLL WATCHER 52 percent to 46 percent The results of a new Marquette Law School Poll survey of Wisconsin showing GOP Sen. Ron Johnson with a 6-percentage-point lead over Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes. In the same poll in September, Johnson received 49 percent support to Barnes’ 48 percent. WHAT'D I MISS? — Biden has no plan to meet with Putin at G-20, White House says: Biden will not meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin at the Group of 20 summit next month — even to discuss the release of American basketball star Brittney Griner — White House press secretary Karine Jean-Pierre said during a briefing today. — Judge’s ruling could trigger Trump deposition in suit over rape claim: A federal judge issued a ruling today that could lead to Trump testifying as soon as next week in a lawsuit stemming from his response to a New York writer’s claim that Trump raped her in a department store dressing room in the 1990s. U.S. District Court Judge Lewis Kaplan turned down Trump’s request to halt fact-finding in the libel case, brought three years ago by E. Jean Carroll after Trump repeatedly denied her rape allegations and crudely described her as “not my type.” — Oath Keeper describes group’s large weapons cache ahead of Jan. 6: A member of the Oath Keepers who traveled with the group to Washington, D.C., ahead of the Jan. 6 riot described a massive stockpile of firearms and other weaponry that allies had stashed in an Arlington, Va., hotel . “I had not seen that many weapons in one location since I was in the military,” recalled Terry Cummings, a Florida resident who said he joined the Oath Keepers in 2020 amid concerns about left-wing violence in Portland, Ore., and joined the group leaders’ private chats in advance of their Jan. 6 trip to D.C. — Rubio wants $33B in disaster aid for Hurricane Ian recovery: Sen. Marco Rubio is asking for $33 billion in disaster relief to help with Hurricane Ian recovery in Florida, noting the figure could change as federal and state officials tally the damage caused by the historic storm. The Florida Republican laid out his request for an emergency disaster aid package today, seeking more than $12 billion for the Army Corps of Engineers to repair damages and handle flood control, nearly $1 billion to grapple with pollution caused by the hurricane and $10 billion to replenish the Federal Emergency Management Agency’s disaster relief fund. — LA City Council president resigns following leaked racist remarks: Nury Martinez has resigned her seat following a leaked recording this week. She is the first elected official to do so after days of pressure from the public and elected officials, including Biden. The hourlong recording captured a conversation between the three council members and a labor leader in which Martinez made pointed racist remarks about another white council member’s Black son, calling him a Spanish word for “little monkey.” The four also discussed ways to use the city’s redistricting process to benefit themselves and their allies, while also diluting the power of Black Angelenos.   LISTEN TO POLITICO'S ENERGY PODCAST: Check out our daily five-minute brief on the latest energy and environmental politics and policy news. Don't miss out on the must-know stories, candid insights, and analysis from POLITICO's energy team. Listen today.     AROUND THE WORLD Chinese President Xi Jinping and Russian President Vladimir Putin. | Lintao Zhang/Getty Images THE END OF HISTORY IS OVER —  The post-Cold War era is “definitively over,” the Biden administration declared in a new national security strategy , describing its intention to compete ferociously against China and Russia — while also collaborating with them on global threats like climate change, writes Alex Ward. The long-awaited National Security Strategy, delayed by the invasion of Ukraine, serves as a reference point for Biden administration officials to coordinate policies across the government. The congressionally mandated document encapsulates Biden’s thinking on the state of the world and how his administration will navigate challenges to the homeland and global order. In a foreword, Biden calls this the “decisive decade to advance America’s vital interests.” The U.S. will do so in three ways before time runs out, according to the document: investing at home to strengthen the local economy, society and defenses; growing coalitions and alliances; and modernizing and strengthening the military. That will allow the U.S. to take on the most pressing problem, per the strategy: “powers that layer authoritarian governance with a revisionist foreign policy” — that is, China and Russia. NIGHTLY NUMBER $965 million The amount a Connecticut jury ordered far-right radio host Alex Jones to pay to relatives of educators and children killed in the Sandy Hook massacre, along with an FBI agent who was a first responder, for his lies about the mass shooting. RADAR SWEEP EAT YOUR HEART OUT — Everyone loves a hack, especially when it comes to food. But with YouTube and now TikTok leading to a proliferation of “menu hacks” to save money or find an “off-the-menu” dish, restaurant workers are getting slammed. Plus, through online ordering apps, people feel more comfortable asking for outlandish substitutions. Jaya Saxena reports for Eater. PARTING VIDEO Watch Russia’s recent escalation in Ukraine. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Charlie Mahtesian @PoliticoCharlie Calder McHugh @calder_mchugh Naomi Andu @naomiandu   FOLLOW US

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POLITICO NIGHTLY: Biden’s next foreign policy test is here

 

View in browser   BY MYAH WARD MIDDLE EAST ‘RESET’? President Joe Biden is already playing defense in the run-up to his trip to the Middle East this week. It’s no surprise. There’s a lot on the line — from political instability to human rights issues, energy supply and regional security. The president plans to start in Israel before traveling to the West Bank to meet with Palestinian leaders. Biden will end the trip in Jeddah, Saudi Arabia, where he’ll participate in a summit of the Gulf Cooperation Council with leaders of Saudi Arabia, Kuwait, Oman, the United Arab Emirates, Bahrain, Qatar, Iraq, Jordan and Egypt. To break down the importance of Biden’s trip, Nightly called the former U.S. ambassador to Saudi Arabia from 2014 to 2017, Joseph Westphal, now a professor at the Lauder Institute at the Wharton School of the University of Pennsylvania. This conversation has been edited. What’s the significance of this trip? There is the strategic importance of not just Saudi Arabia, but the Gulf states, given the shipping, the energy issues, and the ongoing situation with Iran. So from a strategic security point of view, it’s very important to us. And while we’re not fighting a war anymore, like we were in Iraq or Afghanistan, there’s still quite a bit of trouble in the region, in Syria, Lebanon and other places. We need partners to support our climate change initiatives. We need partners to support us with respect to the Russian invasion of Ukraine. We need to take advantage of trade opportunities, which have declined and have been overcome by Chinese trade in the region. We need to come back to being the major trading partner. These are all things the president can open up and bring to light. Before we get to Saudi Arabia, which has received the most coverage of the upcoming trip, how important is Biden’s visit to Israel and the West Bank at this moment?  It’s hugely important. I’m so glad that he chose to go at this time because Israel is going through turmoil, changing government leadership. They have basically an acting prime minister. So this is a time when whatever is discussed with the Israelis in terms of the Palestinian situation, in terms of Middle East in general, will help perhaps encourage people in Israel to transition to a more stable government situation, which is important for us. The difficulty, of course, will be a discussion about the Palestinian situation. I believe that a Palestinian state is almost an impossibility right now, but that is something that the president believes in. The Saudis certainly believe in it. So there will probably be some discussions about whether that’s even possible in the near future. Then he’s going on to Saudi Arabia. The hopes are, of course, at some point we’ll see an exchange of diplomatic relations between Saudi Arabia and Israel, which I think are coming. There has been a lot of emphasis on human rights concerns, and whether Biden’s trip to Saudi Arabia could be seen as letting the country off the hook for its abuses. But you think this trip is worth the blowback he will face on this front?  Absolutely. Presidents, including Biden, have met with Putin. Putin is committing murder and atrocities in Ukraine. We still have to deal with Putin, so did Trump, and so did Obama. Erdogan has been responsible for quite a bit of human rights violations in Turkey. Xi in China, and so on. We can continue to press human rights issues and continue to advocate as much as possible and use our influence, but we cannot shut the door on important partnerships and strategic initiatives that we need to advance. When you’re in one of those meetings, how do you balance moving forward to redefine a relationship while also addressing such thorny issues?  Biden is a really experienced negotiator. My sense is that, like President Obama and other presidents, he will put on the table some of the difficult issues that you need to put there, whether it’s human rights, whether it’s Yemen. But more importantly, what I think he will do is say, “We need to move forward now. What was said in the past, how we got to this place, is not good for either of our countries, and we need to reset our relationship.” That doesn’t mean we are not going to be concerned about human rights, or concerned about other issues associated with the values that we espouse. Now, Biden still doesn’t have an ambassador there. And it took Trump two years to name an ambassador after I left. That’s not good. That’s not how you relate to a country, because your ambassador is your most important vehicle for advancing your policies. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at mward@politico.com or on Twitter at @MyahWard. Keep reading for more on how Westphal thinks Biden will address the killing of Jamal Khashoggi, oil and Iran. With what you know about Biden, do you think he will directly address the Khashoggi murder?  I think everything that he feels needs to be said, has been said. They have heard it, and they have reacted to it. After Biden was elected, the kingdom reacted to that in an unhappy fashion because of the comments Biden has made. So that’s already been said, you don’t need to go back over that. What you need to do is just say, how do we move forward? How do we advance a policy in the future that restores our trust in you, your trust in us and our ability to work together on important issues? He wouldn’t be taking this trip unless he thinks that’s important. A lot of people think he’s going to get them to raise oil production to lower prices. I don’t think so. It’s not that simple. I think we need to have a restructured partnership. We also need a security agreement among the Gulf states. It’s important to create some kind of a unified way of addressing the strategic challenges that the region faces by a united group of Gulf countries, on everything from missile defense, to cybersecurity, to energy, shipping. Do you expect the president to address Saudi Arabia’s alliance with Russia on oil?  I think he will mention it. I would be surprised if he doesn’t try to make the argument that Saudi Arabia is much better off strengthening the partnership with the United States than committing to a relationship with Russia. He can point out that the partnership with us is much longer-standing, much more stable and much more important to the Saudis than anything they can do with Russia. You could potentially have a situation where if the discussion goes really, really well, Mohammed bin Salman — he doesn’t have a legislature he has to worry about — he could certainly make some announcement at the end of the meeting, that they will work to increase the supply of oil to try to attempt to reduce prices. But that’s not necessarily going to reduce our price at the pump because that’s based on all those things that you hear about in the economy that have nothing to do with the supply of oil, like refining capacity and trucking. Another tough subject for Biden on this trip is Iran, especially amid stalled nuclear negotiations with Tehran after Trump pulled out of the deal with the country.  The Saudis definitely supported President Obama’s efforts with Vice President Biden to secure an agreement with Iran. What they did not like was that the agreement, which would eventually phase off some of the sanctions, did not come with negotiations over how the Iranians were going to stop arming the Houthis in Yemen, stop arming Hezbollah in Lebanon and stop attacking in Syria and Iraq. All these other activities that Iran carried out were not part of those negotiations, solely the nuclear piece. They would like to see Biden push hard to have Iran reduce their subversive activities in these other countries before the U.S. relieves sanctions. I’m sure that will be brought up.   DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Progressive group to press Biden not to run in 2024: RootsAction.org, a left-wing group that worked in 2020 to persuade progressives to support Biden, is now preparing to turn on him, organizers told POLITICO, with plans to spend six figures launching a public pressure campaign to block his renomination in 2024. The effort is the latest sign of unrest among Democrats about Biden, whose job approval rating has cratered during a punishing midterm election year. — Biden extends protections for Venezuelans in U.S., rejects calls to go further: The White House today extended the Temporary Protected Status of hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans living in the U.S., but ignored calls from immigration advocates and Democratic lawmakers to expand protections to 250,000 Venezuelans who arrived in the U.S. after TPS was granted in March of last year. — FDA weighs first-ever application for over-the-counter birth control pills: The Food and Drug Administration is reviewing an application from HRA Pharma to sell its birth control without a prescription. If green-lit by the agency, Opill would become the first daily, hormonal birth control pill sold over the counter in the U.S. The company argues that there’s a public health case for its approval as there are millions of unintended pregnancies every year and abortion is becoming increasingly inaccessible. — Parkland father interrupts Biden’s gun control speech: Manuel Oliver, the father of a victim of the 2018 mass shooting in Parkland, Fla., interrupted Biden during a speech today marking the passage of the Bipartisan Safer Communities Act, the first major gun legislation in more than a decade. “You have to open an office in the White House. Name a director,” Oliver was heard saying. The president addressed Oliver’s demands, saying “we have one” in response to the call for a federal office dedicated to gun violence. — Biden admin looks to protect doctors providing emergency abortions: The Biden administration released updated guidance today reminding doctors around the country that they’re protected by federal law if they terminate a patient’s pregnancy as part of treatment in an emergency circumstance — and threatening to fine or strip the Medicare status from hospitals that fail to do so. The action comes in response to reports of widespread confusion in states that have enacted bans about when doctors can perform abortions without risking prosecution. — Judge shreds Bannon defenses ahead of contempt trial: A federal judge today eviscerated nearly all of Steve Bannon’s defenses against a charge that he criminally defied a subpoena from the Jan. 6 select committee, leaving the longtime Trump ally with few options to fight the contempt of Congress case against him . The judge also denied Bannon’s bid to postpone the jury trial set to open next Monday, rejecting defense arguments that such a delay was warranted due to intense media coverage around the ongoing House hearings on the Capitol siege.   Congressional Vision for Tech Across America – July 21 Event : How can innovation play a role in America’s global economic leadership? On July 21, Rep, Gerry Connolly (D-VA), Rep. Tom Emmer (R-MN), Rep. Trey Hollingsworth (R-IN), Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Sen. Jacky Rosen (D-NV), Rep. Mikie Sherrill (D-NJ) are sharing Congress’ vision for the future of policy and technology surrounding workforce and education at MeriTalk’s MerITocracy 2022: American Innovation Forum. The forum will feature Hill and White House leadership and industry visionaries as they dig into the need for tangible outcomes and practical operational plans. Save your seat here.     AROUND THE WORLD ARMING PUTIN — The Iranian government is preparing to send “several hundred” drones, including some equipped with weapons, to Russia at some point in July, national security adviser Jake Sullivan told reporters today. Sullivan made the announcement during an afternoon briefing at the White House, where he said he was confident that with support from the West, Ukraine’s capital Kyiv will remain under Ukrainian control, writes Matt Berg. “Our information indicates that the Iranian government is preparing to provide Russia with up to several hundred [unmanned aerial vehicles], including weapons-capable UAVs on an expedited timeline,” Sullivan said. “It’s unclear whether Iran has delivered any of these UAVs to Russia already.” Iran will train Russian forces to use the drones as early as this month, he added. FOOD FOR DISCUSSION — The leaders of Russia and Ukraine held separate talks with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan today on plans to reopen safe routes for shipping grain via the Black Sea, writes Sarah Anne Aarup. Russia has been blockading Ukraine’s ports since Putin decided to invade in late February. Ukraine, which was once known as the breadbasket of Europe, is a major agricultural exporter and much of its grain is traditionally sent to import-dependent countries like Egypt, Tunisia and Algeria. Now, millions of tons of Ukrainian grain are stuck in storage facilities. The U.N. and Turkey are trying to mediate discussions to restart Ukraine’s crucial grain exports. But tensions are running high over allegations of stolen supplies, which Moscow denies: Ukraine’s foreign affairs ministry estimates Russian forces have grabbed at least 400,000 tons of grain from the country since the February invasion. NIGHTLY NUMBER More than 753,759 The number of signatures submitted by Planned Parenthood, ACLU and other groups behind a campaign in Michigan to put an abortion rights amendment on the November ballot. The Secretary of State’s office requires just over 425,000 signatures of registered Michigan voters to qualify for the ballot, so abortion-rights activists say they they’re confident the petition will be swiftly certified. PARTING WORDS Politico Illustration/Alamy; AP; Getty ON DECK — Phil Waldron. Bobby Engel. Sarah Matthews. They’re all key figures in the Jan. 6 select committee’s sprawling investigation, but there’s a fair chance you’ve never heard of them, write Kyle Cheney, Betsy Woodruff Swan and Nicholas Wu. House investigators have named dozens and dozens of witnesses as they probe the tumultuous final weeks of former President Donald Trump’s administration. While some of those have become household names, there are many more offering consequential pieces of evidence behind the scenes, which the panel has gradually released at each public hearing. The select panel’s upcoming hearings are expected to focus on the convergence between Trump’s allies and fringe groups who incited Capitol violence, as well as the former president’s 187 minutes of inaction as the mob breached the building. That means more recorded and live testimony to come. Here’s who you should know. Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Myah Ward @myahward Naomi Andu @naomiandu   FOLLOW US

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POLITICO NIGHTLY: What H.W. Bush could teach Biden

 

View in browser   BY DAVID SIDERS Presented by With help from Myah Ward Former President George H.W. Bush addresses the nation on television from the Oval Office in December 1989. | AP Photo/Barry Thumma, File WHEN 46 STARTS TO EQUAL 41 — It won’t be long before “George Herbert Walker Biden” creeps into the vernacular, given the parallels surfacing between the 41st president and the 46th. Like the first President Bush, President Joe Biden is viewed by much of Washington as fundamentally decent — good at democracy and foreign policy but bamboozled by an economy that, apart from inflation, he keeps suggesting is fine. People didn’t feel that way in 1992, and despite job growth and low unemployment, they certainly don’t now. The price for Bush was a second term. Looking back 20 years, Time suggested that the echoes “should worry Joe Biden.” But there’s also something Biden could learn from Bush’s experience — either for his own reelection prospects, or for posterity. In 1991, Dave Carney, a Republican strategist then working for Bush, was watching the news on TV when H.W. was asked, during a golf outing, about a 120-point drop in the stock market — the kind of development that tends to put people on edge. “No reason at all to get concerned,” Bush said at the time. “The fundamentals are all right.” In his office, Carney knew the answer was a disaster. “It was totally true, but it was a blunder in terms of communicating to the public that was worried about the economy, and it just gave the opening for [Bill Clinton strategist James] Carville to talk about, ‘It’s the economy, stupid,’ and all that shit,” Carney said. Today, he said, “This is what Biden is doing, too.” Jobs? Great, “except people are lining up for baby formula they can’t get or lining up for gas.” “It doesn’t matter what the economists think,” Carney said. “People are worried about their pocketbook and their cash, and I think that is a similarity. … Biden is doing the exact same thing. He’s relying on the economic eggheads to tell him everything is going to be fine, without showing any empathy or any ability to tell them things suck.” Biden, for the most part, does not suffer from the Kennebunkport caricature of an out-of-touch politician that afflicted Bush. Yes, Biden is still trying to sell an economy that he insists is “on the move.” But he also called inflation his “top domestic priority” this week. He told union workers in Chicago, “I understand.” But neither Bush nor Biden “are what you would call great communicators,” Carney said. And no matter who the president is, “anytime the economy has trouble, anything the incumbent says sounds clueless.” Biden is not a one-term president yet. Ronald Reagan and Barack Obama recovered from weak economies and weak public approval ratings to win second terms. And in the political environment now — in our hyper-partisan, post-Donald Trump era — any comparison to previous presidencies is fraught. “The easy parallel is ‘Effective on the global stage, not so effective at home,” said Jon Meacham, the Bush biographer and presidential historian who occasionally advises Biden. “I get the trope. But I just don’t know. These are two good men trying their best in incredibly difficult circumstances. And President Biden is having to govern in a climate of destructive distrust. President Bush was dealing with the beginnings of contemporary right-wing populism, not that populism’s full fruition, which is what we’re experiencing now. Nobody stormed the Capitol in the early 1990s.” Still, there may be one line to draw from Bush to Biden, in Meacham’s view. Having studied Bush, he’d expected that “the moment Covid became a non-existential threat, too few people would give Biden credit for fixing it, or for stabilizing the economy from its pandemic uncertainty.” “That’s a 41 thing,” Meacham said. “Forty-one wins a war, brilliantly manages the end of the Soviet Union, reunifies Germany, and he watched his numbers steadily decline. That’s in part because 20 minutes later, not enough people cared. … The political marketplace rarely gives you long-term credit for things done, or terrible things prevented from being done. Politics is a future-oriented business.” So Bush, to Meacham, is an example of the longer arc by which presidencies are judged. By the time of his death, in 2018, his image and historical reputation had improved. “He was buried and hailed a statesman of the republic and a defender of democracy and of decency,” Meacham said. “I once asked him, late in his life, what he made of all the praise that was coming his way.” Bush told him, “It’s kinder and gentler all over the place.” Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. As your recycling bin becomes weighted down with political literature, a request from some of our colleagues: Send us photos of campaign ads you receive in the mail. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at dsiders@politico.com, on Twitter at @davidsiders.   A message from Save American Solar Jobs: The Biden administration’s Commerce Department is threatening to implement massive tariffs of up to 250% on solar panel components imported by American solar manufacturers for assembly in the U.S. This tariff threat is devastating the American solar industry, costing U.S. jobs, hurting domestic manufacturing, raising inflation and undermining efforts to address climate change. President Biden: Tell Your Commerce Department to Stop Undermining U.S. Solar Manufacturing.   WHAT'D I MISS? — Veil of secrecy surrounds the Jan. 6 subpoenas for GOP lawmakers: The subpoenas issued to five House Republicans by the Jan. 6 select committee remained shrouded in secrecy, with lawmakers refusing to describe the scope or contents of the historic demands. Members of the select committee declined to say whether they had also subpoenaed telecom companies to obtain the phone and email records of the GOP lawmakers — a step they’ve taken with dozens, if not hundreds, of other witnesses. And they wouldn’t specify whether the subpoenas demand their Republican colleagues’ documents, in addition to their testimony. — Pelosi vows action on infant formula shortages: House Speaker Nancy Pelosi said today that Democrats on Capitol Hill would take several steps to address an infant formula shortage as political pressure grows from parents struggling to find the critical nutrition for their children. Pelosi, in a letter to congressional Democrats, said the shortage was “unconscionable and tragic.” Unlike other Democrats, Pelosi made no effort in the letter to credit the Biden administration for continuing to work with the FDA while taking other steps to resolve the shortage, which stems from a February shutdown of an Abbott Nutrition processing plant in Sturgis, Mich. — Trump attorney faces sharp questions in suit targeting New York AG's probe: A federal judge pointedly questioned a lawyer for former President Donald Trump today as Trump presses his bid to shut down New York Attorney General Letitia James’ investigation into possible fraud in his business empire. The suit Trump filed last December is considered a longshot because federal judges almost never step in to halt state court proceedings or investigations conducted by state or local officials. — Detention of WNBA’s Griner in Moscow extended for 1 month: The lawyer for WNBA star Brittney Griner said today her pre-trial detention in Russia has been extended by one month. Griner, a two-time Olympic gold medalist, was detained at the Moscow airport after vape cartridges containing oil derived from cannabis were allegedly found in her luggage, which could carry a maximum penalty of 10 years in prison.   DON'T MISS DIGITAL FUTURE DAILY - OUR TECHNOLOGY NEWSLETTER, RE-IMAGINED:  Technology is always evolving, and our new tech-obsessed newsletter is too! Digital Future Daily unlocks the most important stories determining the future of technology, from Washington to Silicon Valley and innovation power centers around the world. Readers get an in-depth look at how the next wave of tech will reshape civic and political life, including activism, fundraising, lobbying and legislating. Go inside the minds of the biggest tech players, policymakers and regulators to learn how their decisions affect our lives. Don't miss out, subscribe today.     AROUND THE NATION Michigan Gov. Gretchen Whitmer | Bill Pugliano/Getty Images) THE ROE FIGHT HEADS TO THE STATES — As we approach the Supreme Court’s official decision on whether it will overturn abortion rights, the possible post-Roe fallout is already unfolding across the country. Leading up to the court’s ruling, Nightly’s Myah Ward will zoom in on individual states that elevate an interesting aspect of the abortion rights debate. Tonight, we start with Michigan, one of the nine states that maintains its pre-Roe abortion ban and is a prime example of the political divides fueling the fight. State of play:  Michigan’s 1931 law defines abortion as a felony and was never appealed. If the Supreme Court overturns Roe, abortion under nearly all conditions, including rape and incest, will be illegal in the state. The law also bars the use of drugs to induce an abortion. The law’s one exemption is abortions to “preserve the life” of a woman. In April, Democratic Gov. Gretchen Whitmer filed a lawsuit challenging the state’s 1931 law. Whitmer’s move employs an extraordinary power afforded to governors in her state, which allows her to ask the state Supreme Court to take up the case directly. She hopes the Court’s ruling will protect the right to abortion in the state constitution, regardless of what happens at the national level. The governor is still waiting on the court’s decision about whether, and how quickly, it might take up the case. Key players, and what they’re saying:  Governor: Whitmer is making the issue a priority during the election year. “At this juncture, abortion is still safe and it’s still legal in Michigan, but I am going to pull out all the stops to make sure that women in Michigan have agency over their bodies and their health care decisions,” Whitmer said this week. Attorney general: If Roe is overturned, Democratic state Attorney General Dana Nessel said she will refuse “to enforce this draconian law that will endanger their lives and put to jeopardy the health, safety and welfare of the lives of each and every woman in the state of Michigan.” County prosecutors: Nessel might not enforce the law, but the state’s 83 local county prosecutors could, she warned. “I don’t think that I have the authority to tell the duly elected county prosecutors what they can and what they cannot charge,” Nessel said. More than 60 of these prosecutors are Republicans. Secretary of State: Democrat Jocelyn Benson has said there are three options for protecting abortion rights in the state: The governor’s lawsuit, voters electing candidates who will protect these rights in November and a potential ballot initiative to enshrine the right in the state Constitution. “Our fundamental freedoms, our rights are on the ballot this year,” she said on May 6. Reproductive Freedom for All: The group, a coalition of Planned Parenthood Advocates of Mighican, ACLU of Michigan and Michigan Voice, is gathering signatures in an effort to put a constitutional amendment on the November ballot to eliminate the 1931 law. Hours after the disclosure of the Supreme Court’s draft opinion, more than 10,000 people signed up to volunteer for the petition drive. State Legislature: Republicans hold the power in both the Senate (22-16) and the House (57-52). Democrats in the House have put forward a package of bills to protect the right to abortion, but it’s largely symbolic, given leaders of both the Republican-controlled House and Senate have expressed interest in keeping the 1931 law in place. The state Supreme Court: The Court is one bright spot for Whitmer. The 4-3 majority flipped from Republican-nominated justices to Democratic-nominated ones after the 2020 election, though it’s not obvious that the court will take on the case, or rule in Whitmer’s favor. 2022 stakes: Michigan is one of a handful of states where abortion will play a key role in the midterms. All seats in both the state House and Senate are up for election in 2022, and up and down the ballot, candidates are leaning into the abortion rights debate. Whitmer is seen as one of the most vulnerable Democratic governors up for reelection, though POLITICO’s election forecast predicts the race leans Democratic. Nessel and Benson will also face tough races, where Trump has endorsed Republicans vying for their jobs.   A message from Save American Solar Jobs:     AROUND THE WORLD HURDLE OUT OF ANKARA? Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan said today his country doesn’t like the idea of Finland and Sweden joining NATO, Laurenz Gehrke writes. Finland’s leaders announced Thursday their intention to pursue membership in the transatlantic military alliance “without delay.” Sweden is expected to follow suit in the coming days. But those moves, which come in response to Russia’s brutal war in Ukraine, have sparked criticism in Turkey, which has been a NATO member since 1952. “Right now, when it comes to Sweden and Finland, we follow the developments but not with a positive opinion,” Erdoğan told reporters in Istanbul, adding that he wouldn’t want to repeat what he claims were “mistakes,” including the admission of Greece into NATO. Without evidence, Erdoğan also accused the Nordic countries of harboring terrorists — a charge he often lobs at domestic opponents and Western countries during disagreements. Erdoğan’s comments could create hurdles for a NATO expansion, as current members would need to unanimously accept Finland and Sweden’s bids to join. But the Turkish leader may also simply be posturing ahead of the expected upcoming discussions on the membership bids. Sweden and Finland’s foreign ministers later said they would discuss Ankara’s reservations with their Turkish counterpart in Berlin on Saturday.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     NIGHTLY NUMBER Over $8 per million British thermal units The forecast average price of natural gas for the rest of 2022 , well above the $2 to $4 range the fuel has typically traded inside for the past decade. Prices for another crucial fossil fuel — natural gas — have surged, raising costs for everything from home heating and cooking to fertilizer, chemicals and wholesale electricity. PARTING WORDS SUMMER READING LIST — You’ll have plenty of options this year for books to read on vacation, courtesy of the multiple Trump administration tell-alls published recently. And Matt Wuerker covers the best political satire and cartoons on them and the other big stories of the day in the latest Punchlines Weekend Wrap.   A message from Save American Solar Jobs: The Biden administration’s Commerce Department is threatening to implement massive tariffs of up to 250% on solar panel components imported by American solar manufacturers for assembly in the U.S. This tariff threat is devastating the American solar industry, costing U.S. jobs, hurting domestic manufacturing, raising inflation and undermining efforts to address climate change. There is a better solution already on the table. Congress should pass the clean energy tax credits and incentives that have been stalled since last year. These policies will drive the expansion of domestic solar panel component manufacturing and ensure we have the infrastructure needed to fight climate change and create jobs. President Biden: Tell Your Commerce Department to Stop Undermining U.S. Solar Manufacturing.   Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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