POLITICO Massachusetts Playbook: The many mayoral races of Massachusetts

 

View in browser   BY LISA KASHINSKY , SOPHIE GARDNER AND KELLY GARRITY LIFE, LIBERTY AND THE PURSUIT OF MAYORALTY — In a state regularly ragged on for its lack of electoral competition, this year’s mayoral contests are shaping up to be an exception. Five of the 35 mayors up for reelection this year are stepping down or have already left, opening up corner offices for the first time in years — if not decades — from Pittsfield to Marlborough to Haverhill. And more could follow as mayors from Methuen to New Bedford mull their options. The competition isn't limited to open seats. At least eight mayors have already drawn challengers, putting incumbents on defense from Brockton to Springfield. Covid-19 fatigue contributed to nearly a fifth of the state’s mayors leaving office in 2021. This year's departures are different. Jim Fiorentini , the mayor of Haverhill since 2004, told supporters that at 76, he wants to “leave with enough health left to enjoy some life.” Melrose Mayor Paul Brodeur , who’s been in public office since 2002, plans to fill his soon-to-be free time with family and friends. After 12 years as mayor and 18 on the City Council, Marlborough Mayor Arthur Vigeant said he wants to see more of his five grandkids. And Pittsfield Mayor Linda Tyer wants to travel and spend more time with her aging parents. “There's always a moment in time when new leadership could be really beneficial to the community, and I feel like that's where we are right now,” Tyer told Playbook. Revere Mayor Brian Arrigo had already decided not to seek a third term when he stepped down last month to run the state Department of Conservation and Recreation. Four city councilors are now vying to succeed him, a contest that could end with former Mayor Dan Rizzo returning to the job Arrigo knocked him out of eight years ago. Another particularly fraught race is shaping up in Springfield, where two city councilors and a state representative are among those lining up to take on the city’s longest-serving mayor: Domenic Sarno . Sarno is no stranger to drawing and dispatching opponents — he toppled an incumbent to win the seat in the first place. And his challengers, long critical of his handling of police oversight in the city, have reasons to want him gone. But it’s still unusual for an incumbent — particularly one as politically formidable as Sarno — to have not one but three prominent challengers. In this case, state Rep. Orlando Ramos and City Councilors Justin Hurst and Jesse Lederman , who are all ostensibly coming at the more centrist Democrat from the left. Sarno plans to launch his reelection campaign on May 17, according to an event invitation reviewed by Playbook. He dropped $19,000 last month on yard signs and bumper stickers in preparation, per his latest campaign finance filing. Challengers have also put incumbents on notice in cities including Braintree, Greenfield , Malden, Medford, Woburn and Waltham . And in Brockton, Mayor Robert Sullivan is running against youth mentor John C. Williams and former GOP congressional candidate Hamilton Rodrigues . "It would probably be easy for me to say 'nope, I'm gonna call it a day.’ You know, I came in, and then six weeks later we were dealing with a pandemic,” Sullivan told Playbook. “I have a lot of friends that I've met, mayors, they've served and then they've decided to go in a different direction.” But Sullivan isn’t ready to call it quits. “To be able to make a difference in people’s lives is why I run,” he said. GOOD FRIDAY MORNING, MASSACHUSETTS . Here are two things to watch as mayor’s races continue taking shape: — The mayors who haven’t said anything yet. Quincy’s Thomas Koch and Taunton’s Shaunna O’Connell , for instance, both plan on running again but haven’t made it official, per two people familiar with their plans. But Weymouth Mayor Bob Hedlund hasn't decided yet, his chief of staff said. And New Bedford’s Jon Mitchell , who’s been floated for higher office before, has been playing curiously coy . — The Healey-Driscoll factor. When the state’s governing team includes a former mayor, it’s a safe bet that the two top executives will play in some municipal races. They’re already starting to — backing Medford Mayor Breanna Lungo-Koehn for reelection and Lt. Gov. Kim Driscoll’ s former chief of staff, Dominick Pangallo , in the upcoming special election for Salem mayor. TODAY — Gov. Maura Healey and Driscoll participate in the first meeting of the Economic Development Planning Council at 2:30 p.m. at the State House. Driscoll administers the oath of office to Framingham State University’s new president at 10 a.m. Boston Mayor Michelle Wu attends a Roxbury coffee hour at 9:30 a.m. AG Andrea Campbell is on GBH’s “Boston Public Radio” at 1 p.m. and speaks at the Massachusetts Black Lawyers Association’s gala at 6:30 p.m. in Boston. THIS WEEKEND — Driscoll, Secretary of State Bill Galvin and Auditor Diana DiZoglio attend the 3T & 2C annual Democratic Breakfast at 9 a.m. Saturday at Nicholson Hall in Newburyport. Former Labor Secretary Marty Walsh receives an honorary degree from Dean College at 11 a.m. Saturday. SUNDAY SHOWS — MassDems Chair Steve Kerrigan is on WBZ’s “Keller @ Large” at 8:30 a.m. Sunday. Healey is on WCVB’s “On the Record” at 11 a.m. Sunday. Tips? Scoops? Running for mayor? Email us: lkashinsky@politico.com , sgardner@politico.com and kgarrity@politico.com .   DON’T MISS THE POLITICO ENERGY SUMMIT: A new world energy order is emerging and America’s place in it is at a critical juncture. Join POLITICO on Thursday, May 18 for our first-ever energy summit to explore how the U.S. is positioning itself in a complicated energy future. We’ll explore progress on infrastructure and climate funding dedicated to building a renewable energy economy, Biden’s environmental justice proposals, and so much more. REGISTER HERE .     DATELINE BEACON HILL — MARK YOUR CALENDARS: The Senate will roll out its budget proposal on Tuesday, per the State House News Service . The timeline for a tax-relief package, however, remains unclear. Speaking of that … — LETTER-WRITING CAMPAIGN: The coalition that worked to pass the so-called millionaires tax is continuing to pressure senators to keep cuts to the short-term capital gains tax rate and other controversial measures out of their tax-relief plan. Raise Up Massachusetts sent a letter to the entire Senate yesterday doubling down on its argument that April’s revenue shortfall, combined with the feds hiking interest rates and the threat of defaulting on the national debt, present “significant” fiscal risk for the state. The group is urging senators to reject not only lowering the short-term capital gains tax rate, but also the plans on the table to raise the estate-tax threshold and tinker with the single sales factor apportionment. — “Healey brings more women into governor’s office,” by Colman M. Herman, CommonWealth Magazine: “According to the state’s diversity dashboard, [Gov. Maura] Healey has 52 people working in her office at the State House – 36, or 69 percent, are women, and 16, or nearly 31 percent, are men.” — “Minority-owned firms see big jump in Massachusetts state contracts,” by Paul Singer, GBH News: “Minority-owned businesses won contracts worth $217 million from Massachusetts state agencies last year, a jump of more than $50 million from the year before, according to new data from the state’s Supplier Diversity Office.” VAX-ACHUSETTS — “Massachusetts COVID cases drop 14%, Boston shutting down some vaccination and testing sites,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald: “On Thursday, the Massachusetts Department of Public Health reported 897 virus cases over the last week. The daily average of 128 COVID cases from the last week was a 14% decrease from the daily rate of 148 virus infections during the previous week.” — “Most major health care and hospital systems in Mass. will lift mask requirements next week,” by Kay Lazar and Jessica Bartlett, Boston Globe. FROM THE HUB — “Mayor Wu announces $16.5 million in federal funds to help homeless people,” by Danny McDonald, Boston Globe: “Mayor Michelle Wu announced the city is receiving a $16.5 million grant from the federal government for housing and supportive services for homeless people. … As part of the breakdown of funds, Wu’s office said Eliot Community Services will receive $6.2 million over three years to house 105 homeless people from Mass. and Cass or ‘other high-risk settings.’” — “Advocates request halt to low-income housing,” by Leah Samuel, Bay State Banner. — “Michelle Wu indicates support for rat czar hire in Boston,” by Gayla Cawley, Boston Herald. — “Amid writers’ strike, Boston University is facing heat for picking Warner Bros. CEO as commencement speaker,” by Rick Sobey, Boston Herald. PLANES, TRAINS AND AUTOMOBILES — “Family of woman killed by Commuter Rail sues MBTA for crash records,” by Dan Atkinson, Dig Boston: “Last January, a 68-year-old woman driving through Wilmington died when a Commuter Rail train slammed into her car as she was going over the railroad tracks. The crossing arm failed to come down, which MBTA officials quickly blamed on 'human error.' A worker for Commuter Rail managers Keolis was placed on leave. But for more than a year, the T has not released further information about the crash and its subsequent investigation.” — “Man files lawsuit stemming from MBTA escalator accident at Back Bay Station in 2021,” by Travis Andersen, Boston Globe.   GET READY FOR GLOBAL TECH DAY: Join POLITICO Live as we launch our first Global Tech Day alongside London Tech Week on Thursday, June 15. Register now for continuing updates and to be a part of this momentous and program-packed day! From the blockchain, to AI, and autonomous vehicles, technology is changing how power is exercised around the world, so who will write the rules? REGSITER HERE .     DAY IN COURT — “Elizabeth Warren Likely to Beat RFK Jr. Suit Over Anti-Vax Book,” by Peter Hayes, Bloomberg Law: “Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) won’t be required to immediately retract, apologize for, or remove a letter from her website requesting that Amazon not direct consumers to an anti-vaccine book by Robert F. Kennedy Jr. because Kennedy’s underlying suit isn’t likely to succeed on the merits, a federal appeals court said Thursday." — “National investigation shows Massachusetts lags in compensation for wrongfully convicted,” by Mike Beaudet, WCVB: “Massachusetts’ wrongful convictions statute has a cap of $1 million on damages. … ‘I'm absolutely for lifting that cap,’ [AG Andrea] Campbell said. But any reforms would have to be signed into law by Gov. [Maura] Healey, who, despite serving as attorney general for eight years and whose office handled these cases, would not weigh in on whether the law should be changed.” — “Fall River City Councilor admits in court to harassing wife of an ex-lover last year,” by Jo C. Goode, Herald News. IT'S NOT EASY BEING GREEN — “With new report, AG Campbell calls for more public participation in key energy decisions,” by Sabrina Shankman, Boston Globe: “Decisions about where to site energy infrastructure have long left out those who end up suffering the worst consequences of those decisions — the environmental justice communities that are often home to facilities that can pollute the air and water, according to a new report issued early Tuesday by Attorney General Andrea Campbell’s office.” — “Markey introduces bipartisan bill to improve climate-related mental health services,” by Zack Budryk, The Hill: “The legislation, the Community Mental Wellness and Resilience Act, would establish a $36 million pilot program through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) for mental health care specifically for communities on the frontlines of climate change.” WHAT ELSE YOU SHOULD BE READING — “Mass resignations leave just one member on Uxbridge School Committee,” by Jeff A. Chamer, Telegram & Gazette: “In a letter to families on Thursday, Superintendent Michael Baldassare said the district will investigate the events that led to the recent resignations of six out of the seven members of the Uxbridge School Committee this week. The letter said the district would commission a third-party review and make its findings public.” — “State gets "C-" for lead in school drinking water,” by Christian M. Wade, The Eagle-Tribune: “That's up from the ‘D’ grade the state received in a 2019 report, but advocates say it's not enough.” — "'Uniting for Ukraine' federal program helps refugees start new life in Massachusetts," by Brandon Truitt, WBZ. — “At sit-in, Simon's Rock students allege that the early college has a pattern of mishandling or covering up sexual assault complaints,” by Heather Bellow, Berkshire Eagle. — “Exploitation, Abuse, and Death: The Dark Side of Working in the Weed Industry,” by Dusty Christensen, The Nation. HEARD ‘ROUND THE BUBBLAH TRANSITIONS — Alexi Nowokunski has joined Benchmark Strategies as a public affairs associate. She previously was senior information manager for former Gov. Charlie Baker. — Amy Metet and Kate Bueker have joined Bridge Over Troubled Waters’ board of directors. HAPPY BIRTHDAY — to Endpoints’ Nicole DeFeudis, Nicole Serrano, Brian Fry and Jedd Ari Fisch. Happy belated to GWU’s Todd Belt. HAPPY BIRTHWEEKEND — to Paul Clark, Daniel Jick, David Rogers, Lori Lefkowitz, Meg McIntyre and Amanda Drane , who celebrate Saturday; and to Sunday birthday-ers Emma Riley, Nancy White, Chris Lindahl, M.J. Tidwell, Nicholas Harrer and Brian Dunn. NEW HORSE RACE ALERT: ONE-HORSE STATE — Hosts Steve Koczela, Jennifer Smith and Lisa Kashinsky dig into why so many elections are uncontested in Massachusetts, what BPS parents are worrying about and the bills on Beacon Hill that would boost supports for immigrants. Subscribe and listen on iTunes and Sound Cloud . Want to make an impact? POLITICO Massachusetts has a variety of solutions available for partners looking to reach and activate the most influential people in the Bay State. Have a petition you want signed? A cause you’re promoting? Seeking to increase brand awareness among this key audience? Share your message with our influential readers to foster engagement and drive action. Contact Jesse Shapiro to find out how: jshapiro@politico.com .   Follow us on Twitter Lisa Kashinsky @lisakashinsky   Subscribe to the POLITICO Playbook family Playbook  |  Playbook PM  |  California Playbook  |  Florida Playbook  |  Illinois Playbook  |  Massachusetts Playbook  |  New Jersey Playbook  |  New York Playbook  |  Ottawa Playbook  |  Brussels Playbook  |  London Playbook View all our politics and policy newsletters FOLLOW US

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THE TRAGIC COVID NUMBERS!

 FROM THE BOSTON GLOBE: THE TRAGIC COVID NUMBERS!

Today's US coronavirus / COVID-19 numbers in the US From the Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University Confirmed US cases: 78,309,441 Confirmed US deaths: 932,602 From The New York Times COVID-19 map and case count: VACCINATIONS Fully vaccinated: 64 percent of all Americans Boosted: 28 percent of all Americans Partially vaccinated: 12 percent of all Americans No shots: 24 percent of all Americans INFECTIONS New cases yesterday: 103,866 A month ago: 712,051 HOSPITALIZATIONS Yesterday: 78,213 people infected with COVID-19 were in the hospital A month ago: 157,770 people DEATHS Yesterday: 3,187 Americans died from COVID-19 A month ago: 2,672 Americans died in one day

At some point this year, the US will hit 1 million deaths from COVID-19, while the world will reach 6 million deaths. Yes, you read those numbers correctly: The US accounts for 1/6th of all COVID deaths on Earth (more than 16 percent) even though it has just 4 percent of the world's population. Even worse are the case numbers: Our 78 million cases make up more than 18 percent of the world's 420.5 million cases. What a disgrace and an international embarrassment for a country that brags it's the greatest in the world. And with 24 percent of Americans walking around without even one vaccine shot -- with most of them refusing -- COVID is probably here to stay in a much more virulent form than it had to be. And that's very bad news for the 7 million Americans with weak immune systems. If they get hospitalized with COVID, they are 5 times more likely to die than those without compromised immune systems. These aren't outliers. Know somebody undergoing cancer treatment, with heart issues, with Down Syndrome, with autism, with rheumatoid arthritis? They're all in increased danger. And as writer Ed Yong noted in The Atlantic, that 7 million number doesn't even include millions of other Americans who have diseases that also hinder immunity, such as AIDS and at least 450 genetic disorders. These are our relatives, our friends, our neighbors. Even if they are all strangers to us, they are fellow human beings. But if the willfully unvaccinated don't care about themselves -- they are 17 times more likely to be hospitalized and 20 times more likely to die -- they certainly don't care about strangers, or neighbors, or friends, or relatives, or even their own children. I suspect that's why the overwhelming majority of you -- smart, compassionate people -- are getting boosted, keeping on your masks, and avoiding crowds. Because if you inadvertently infected somebody undergoing chemotherapy, or a child who had had a heart transplant, you'd be devastated. That's called humanity. Here are more of your comments about masks and mandates: Virginia McVarish of Cambridge, Mass.: I still wear a mask. And I am frustrated when other people don't. Covid is NOT gone. Masks are another layer of safety and are so easy to wear. Why not just wear them?   (Note, my husband and I are high-risk and have been super-careful since 3/2020. I don't want to get Covid now!) Michael of Oklahoma City: I generally wear a mask in public places and crowded stores. Go into a restaurant or bar masked and unmask most of time at the table. We voted in a local election and I was glad to see about 65 percent of the people masked (probably the vaccinated and boosted ones). I am fully vaccinated and boosted and don't hesitate to travel. Have been to NYC twice and Puerto Rico once in the past four months. Pamela Dintaman of Tucson, Ariz.: I am in no hurry to get rid of masks until hospitals recover and more people take precautions, vaccines/masks. I am more concerned for the safety of the whole community than about my minor inconveniences. I feel dismayed for the teachers now at the mercy of parents who don't want masks, and concerned for school administrators who will bear the brunt of angry demands of parents. This pandemic is an opportunity to teach our children about how we take care of the whole community, how we go beyond ourselves. I wear a mask when out in public. I eat outdoors with friends. I am living fully; I am not living in fear. (I do not believe that if we choose precautions we are living in fear; there is some major BS going on these days with that cliché.) Linda Littlefield Grenfell of Wells, Maine: I am an elder, age 72. I wear a mask in all public places, avoid such places as much as possible, and am comfortable continuing to wear a mask for the rest of my life. People who visit our home are asked to wear a mask. I wish mandates would continue or be realized, but it looks like the culture is retreating from protections. Are we giving up? Or giving in? The protests will influence public policy, as they intend. It continues to amaze many of us that we live with neighbors and relatives and friends who defend their freedom to not wear a mask, as if this is noble. It is shocking how impatient, rude, and selfish our society is. And so very sad. Long-haul Covid is devastating. I have an adult daughter who has been sick since March of 2020, with brain fog, exhaustion, nerve irritation, and aches and pains. It appears that many people suffer with this, and probably will for a long time, if not for the rest of their lives. It destroys quality of life, and probably will shorten life. Between the climate crisis, the willful destruction of democracy, the pandemic, and the embrace of ignorance, I confess I am discouraged. This is hard. I guess the insight that we were made for times like this is helpful, and that there are others who share the goal of well-being for all life, is necessary to keep on keepin' on. Amanda Rychel of Somerville, Mass.: I have a vaccinated 9-year-old in public school. I do not have any other young children at home or anyone who is at high risk for COVID. I support making masks optional first to our vaccinated kids in school, before they are made optional in public spaces. RIght now, the school case counts are extremely low and they are being pool tested weekly. As a counterpoint, in my workplace, I am not at this time required to wear a mask (we are all vaccinated and boosted and work in a low-density office) and also we have testing weekly at work. Under these scenarios, it is pretty low risk to go without a mask and I think the kids deserve a break. They have been bearing the brunt of restrictions and closures since the beginning and it is unfair to them. I think we should probably have continued masking in public places until we get case counts and percent positivity down to a certain point (not sure what that should be). My feelings on unmasking the kids makes me feel a bit at odds with people with whom I normally align politically. I think for the most part the progressive left is ignoring data and science now as much as the anti-vaxxers. We need to be reasonable and data-driven when making these decisions. Ron Rosenstock of Holden, Mass.: When the government passes a law, like seat belts, or a mask mandate, we don't take it personally. We just do it because it's for the good of all. The difficulty I have is finding tolerance for those who don't obey the law. Dorothy Driscoll: As for masks, we saw what happened when our guard was let down too soon last year. I find it interesting that none of the kids I know really complain about the mask wearing. Rather it is the parents. I would think that the anti-mask parents would be more concerned with all the shootings in schools rather than their child wearing a mask to either protect his life or that of his teacher. How screwed up our values have become. Mary Miller of Colorado: As a 70-year-old who is pretty healthy but overweight, I wear a mask when I go out. We are not eating inside restaurants yet -- just doing takeout. Colorado is doing pretty well on vaccinations, except for some pockets, and I live in one of those low-vax pockets. Colorado Springs/El Paso County is at 64 percent while the rest of the state is at 72 percent. This is in spite of having numerous military bases that require vaccinations. To read our horrible newspaper, The Colorado Springs Gazette, it is all a plot to take away our FREEDOM by those Marxist Dems. Of course, nobody says that being dead is not very free. Paul Regan of Woodstock, Vt.: Mask mandates I believe should be kept in schools. Kids don't seem to have a problem with masks. I think it comes from their parents. If they are going to stop masking in schools, make it contingent on the child getting vaccinated. If not vaccinated, then the child should have to continue wearing a mask. Kids have the lowest vaccination rate -- this is a sure way to make vaccinations happen in that age group! Has anyone asked teachers how they feel about kids not wearing masks? If I were a teacher, the day kids stop wearing masks in schools would be the day I would quit. Nothing has really changed. We have the virus with variants and 900,000 people dead. I understand that people and parents want to move on, but give me a break; you're playing Russian roulette with death being the result. Vermont is highly vaccinated, I think the best in New England if not the whole country. I wear a mask wherever I go, and every rational person I know does the same. Sylvia Yelland of Crossville, Tenn.: The non-vaxxers are totally responsible for prolonging this problem, quite the same as the parents in Oregon and Washington are responsible (when they refused to have their children vaccinated for school) for the return of measles, mumps, chicken pox, and pneumonia. Why don't people educate themselves before flying off the deep end and causing irreparable damage to this country? Pseudo-intellects. Kay White Drew of Rockville, Md.: Fully vaxxed and boosted as I am, my policy has been to wear a mask whenever I go anywhere indoors that isn't my own or some vaxxed person's home; most businesses here have signs requiring masks for entry (though I have seen unmasked folks in the grocery store, not many). I haven't eaten with friends at a restaurant for the last couple months b/c omicron but will probably do so again soon (friends who are vaxxed and boosted), though I will be happier when we can gather outside again. One of my daughters is a schoolteacher in NJ, so I kind of wish they'd hold off on taking away the mask mandate for schools until (a lot) more kids are vaccinated -- that seems like a no-brainer to me, close as we are to having vaccines approved (or whatever) and available for kids of ALL ages. I have considered the possibility of wearing masks indoors forever during cold & flu season, even once COVID recedes into the distance. (Thanks to all the covidiots, it will never ride off into the sunset, unfortunately.) Emily Harting of Brooklyn, N.Y.: My rule is to wear a mask inside, if the staff are and/or there is a sign asking you to -- this is for places that do not ask to see a vax card (stores, for instance). I let the staff guide me and follow their lead. Also true for Uber or cabs. I think that's the least we can do! In restaurants in NYC, you have to show you are fully vaxxed to eat there, so I am comfortable not wearing a mask indoors when dining or at a bar. Finally, now that I wear a mask on the subway, I probably will do so for the rest of my life. For a LOT of reasons, not the least of which is it is a traveling box o' germs, even before Covid.

POLITICO Nightly: Ukraine waits, and wonders

 

View in browser   BY TYLER WEYANT With help from Myah Ward Children play on tanks displayed at the Motherland Monument in Kyiv, Ukraine | Chris McGrath/Getty Images FOG MACHINE — There were drumbeats today over Russia and Ukraine. What rhythm they were playing, one of war or diplomacy, seemed unclear. We mainly ended up with a lot of loud banging. Secretary of State Antony Blinken made a surprise appearance at the U.N. to lay out the potential, “theatrical” steps American officials expect the Kremlin to take. Russian Deputy Foreign Minister Sergei Vershinin said Blinken’s comments that Russia is operating under a false pretext were “regrettable.” Vershinin added that Russian troops remain in Russia “in our own territory in the regime we deemed needed.” President Joe Biden said, of a potential Russian invasion of Ukraine, that his “sense is that it will happen within the next several days.” The day’s events felt less like the fog of war than a war of fog. To try to make sense of what might come next, Nightly spoke with world and national security editor Ben Pauker. This conversation has been edited. The U.S. government and allies say Russia is “imminently” going to have war, a thing they’ve said on and off now for some time. But if it doesn’t happen in 3-4 days, what then? It doesn’t change much. Part of this is a pure intel assessment — that Putin has enough troops in place now to do what he wants to do when he wants to do it. The other part is a signaling exercise: that Biden and co. need to continually shout that this is urgent to Western allies, and let the Kremlin know that they’re not underestimating the danger. Is there any worry on the American side that the sense of urgency could wane, either from shaky allies, or just a longer timeframe? If the U.S. wasn’t sharing intelligence on what seems to be a very legitimate assessment of the threat level, it would be negligent. That said, I imagine that this administration doesn’t want to be seen as crying wolf. There’s probably only so long you can say “This is real, and it could happen tomorrow!” before the public starts to lose interest. But we’ve yet to see any indication that U.S. allies are beginning to doubt the message that an invasion is imminent. Part of it is also showing Putin that the West takes this seriously and that it won’t be surprised by a sneak attack like in 2014 in Crimea. As for the Russians, whether they decide to invade soon, engage in diplomatic efforts, or take other steps, are there factors that we aren’t talking about enough? The one we hear most often is “It’s all up to Putin.” The word we don’t hear often enough is “ego.” As the Biden administration has said, this is a war of choice for Putin. And he’s played the pressure/escalation game many times before in order to extend the sphere of Moscow’s influence, install friendly governments or destabilize antagonistic ones, and maybe just to put himself back in the center of the world stage when he feels attention has turned elsewhere (like to China). But this time, it seems he’s boxed himself into a corner: invade and suffer the consequences of international opprobrium and crippling sanctions, or pull the troops back and return home to a public that might smell weakness. I think ego is a significant part of why observers are so worried that he might actually do this, despite the consequences. What are the key indicators you and our reporters will be paying attention to the most in the coming days? Like everyone else, we’ll be looking for intelligence assessments, satellite imagery, TikToks, whatever to get a sense of whether Russian troops are continuing to build up along the border or start to pull back. In Belarus, the Russian troops are there (ostensibly) as part of a joint military exercise which is due to end on Feb. 20. If those Russian forces don’t pull back by then, it tells us something. It’s also important to keep a close eye on the breakaway republics of Donetsk and Luhansk in Ukraine’s east, where there’s still trench warfare and where Russia already has well-armed allies and friends. That’s a long way from Kyiv, but it’s also Ukraine’s softest underbelly, if Russia wants to roll in or claim some pretext to invade. Welcome to POLITICO Nightly. A programming note: We’ll be off this Monday, Feb. 21, for President’s Day. But we’ll be back and better than ever Tuesday, Feb. 22. Reach out with news, tips and ideas at nightly@politico.com. Or contact tonight’s author at tweyant@politico.com, or on Twitter at @tweyant.   STEP INSIDE THE WEST WING: What's really happening in West Wing offices? Find out who's up, who's down, and who really has the president’s ear in our West Wing Playbook newsletter, the insider's guide to the Biden White House and Cabinet. For buzzy nuggets and details that you won't find anywhere else, subscribe today.     FROM THE HEALTH DESK A second grade teacher, starts class at Carter Traditional Elementary School in Louisville, Ky. | Jon Cherry/Getty Images MASK TRANSIT — As governors begin lifting mask mandates, a familiar pandemic debate has returned: Is it too soon to let school children ditch their masks? Nightly's Myah Ward asked some of our go-to public health experts if now is the right time to lift school mask mandates, and if not, what specific metrics they would use to determine when the masks should come off. These answers have been edited. “It’s really about the level of community transmission and school vaccination rates. So in an Eastern Maryland school where transmission is now going below 10 new daily cases per 100,000 and if vaccination rates are high, I think this can be considered. Assuming BA.2 does not slow our Covid deceleration, yes, I think in a few weeks we might relax mask restrictions across many parts of the country. “However, I would feel better about this if we did a better job with school Covid vaccination coverage and provided we had an alert system in place if and when Covid transmission goes back up, say later in the summer in U.S. southern states or nationally in the winter. This means public communications should emphasize anticipatory guidance around expectations. Covid doesn’t end until the whole world is vaccinated, and right now no plans are in place to make this happen.” — Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine and co-director of the Texas Children’s Hospital Center for Vaccine Development “Yes, we’re all tired of this pandemic. Yes, we all want this pandemic end. In fact, as a pandemic responder, I cannot wait for this pandemic spiral to end and as a parent of three children under the age of 9, I too am looking forward to the day they can be mask-free in schools. But for me, it’s about time and place for mask mandates to be lifted in schools. “Place includes what is the local epidemiological data there — are cases still high, are vaccination rates still low, are hospitals still stretched? If the answer is yes, then we should not be lifting mask mandates at this specific place. The next factor is time. We should not base the time of lifting mask mandates on arbitrary dates. The time of the lift of mask mandates should be based on the local epidemiological data as well as access-based indicators such as — do people in the local area have access to high quality masks and is testing freely available? Is there enough supply of Covid-19 anti-viral therapeutics in that place? Cases and hospitalizations are all on the decline so we’re getting there for many places in the U.S. The question is what the right time is based on these indicators.” — Syra Madad, infectious disease epidemiologist at the Harvard Belfer Center “Mask mandates in schools should not be treated any differently than mask mandates for adults doing leisurely activities — that is to say, community incidence is still very high, and it is a gamble to remove masks when this is the case in any indoor settings that are crowded and without improved ventilation. I can thus understand why parents are so upset to see schools being treated differently than the community. In a few weeks, I am hopeful that our test positivity in California could be close to 1 percent — which is around the level at which I think it would be tough for an outbreak to start again easily, especially with high rates of previous infections and moderate rates of vaccinations and boosters. Right now, test positivity in California is closer to 6 percent. As a clinician, I will not discount the harms of infections, even ones that are not severe, because the longer-term consequences of these are as of yet still unclear.” — Abraar Karan, infectious disease fellow at Stanford University “The current status of the pandemic affords a lot more flexibility in what mitigation measures are in place at schools. There is widespread availability of vaccines for those above 5, antivirals, monoclonal antibodies, and rapid tests coupled with a lot of population immunity from both vaccines and infection. Additionally, there is a lot of knowledge about transmission, risk stratification of activities, and best practices in schools. There will always be Covid-19 in schools and it’s important to have off-ramps for masking policies as Covid-19 is increasingly transformed into one of many respiratory viruses. And for those who are more risk averse, it is important to emphasize that one-way masking works.” — Amesh Adalja, senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins Institute for Health Security “Governors should release mask mandates at the same time for adults as they do for schools, since children are lower risk for Covid. Otherwise the process seems unfair. “As we transition into endemicity with Covid-19 (living with it in a controlled manner with vaccines and therapeutics), we advocate for a metric-based approach to remove non-pharmaceutical interventions like masks for both adults and schoolchildren based on community vaccination plus hospitalization rates. The current CDC guidance recommends masking based on case counts, but in places of high vaccination, cases become “decoupled” from hospitalizations since vaccines are so effective at preventing severe disease. “I would base metrics for lifting mask mandates in schools on a vaccination rate of 70 percent in the region and <10/100,000 hospitalizations for Covid in the region per day (distinguish for or with COVID) or at least 20 percent remaining ICU capacity based on the HHS tool. These metrics have been met in almost all of the states where governors are lifting mask mandates for adults.” — Monica Gandhi, infectious diseases expert at the University of California at San Francisco   DON’T MISS CONGRESS MINUTES: Need to follow the action on Capitol Hill blow-by-blow? Check out Minutes, POLITICO’s new platform that delivers the latest exclusives, twists and much more in real time. Get it on your desktop or download the POLITICO mobile app for iOS or Android. CHECK OUT CONGRESS MINUTES HERE.     WHAT'D I MISS? — Judge orders Trump to sit for deposition in New York lawsuit: A state judge has ordered Donald Trump, his son Donald Trump Jr. and his daughter Ivanka Trump to sit for depositions within three weeks in New York Attorney General Letitia James’ investigation of alleged financial improprieties at the Trump Organization. The judge, Arthur Engoron, ordered the Trumps to turn over relevant documents within two weeks. — McCarthy picks his path on Cheney: Try to boot her from Congress: Kevin McCarthy is throwing off tradition and supporting a primary challenger to one of his own members. But it’s not exactly a surprise — the incumbent is Rep. Liz Cheney. The GOP leader’s decision to wade into the primary battle and support the Trump-endorsed Harriet Hageman marks a departure from the status quo of top party leaders protecting their incumbents. It also caps off a dramatic implosion of their relationship that strained after the Jan. 6 attack. — Kristof ruled ineligible for Oregon governor’s race: Former New York Times columnist Nicholas Kristof is ineligible to run for governor of Oregon, the state Supreme Court ruled today, after he was disqualified for not meeting the state’s residency requirement. The state’s high court upheld a determination from Oregon’s Democratic Secretary of State Shemia Fagan’s office, which found that Kristof did not meet the three-year residency requirement for seeking the governorship. — Jan. 6 plea deals have helped Trump allies sow ‘confusion’ about attack, judge says: The top federal judge today said the Justice Department’s handling of Jan. 6 prosecutions has contributed to “confusion” about the gravity of the Capitol attack — and emboldened those who wish to reduce it to a mere “protest” or “legitimate political discourse.” Chief Judge Beryl Howell of D.C.’s district court blasted the “legitimate political discourse” line — part of a Republican National Committee resolution condemning the Jan. 6 select committee investigation — during sentencing hearings for Brian Stenz and James Lollis, two of the more than 750 people charged for breaching the Capitol last year. Stenz and Lollis struck misdemeanor plea deals, similar to hundreds of others, that admitted to illegally “parading” and “picketing” inside the Capitol. — Elon Musk accuses SEC of ‘harassment campaign’: Tesla CEO Elon Musk accused the Securities and Exchange Commission of a “harassment campaign” aimed at chilling his right to free speech . The SEC sued Musk that year after he tweeted that he had secured funding to take the company private at $420 per share. As part of the settlement, Musk and Tesla were each ordered to pay $20 million fines, which were supposed to be distributed to shareholders. NIGHTLY NUMBER 46 days The number of days until April 4, the filing deadline for Arizona candidates for Senate. With time winding down, the political class in Arizona and D.C. is scrutinizing Gov. Doug Ducey’s every move — aware that his decision looms as the last major piece of the 2022 Senate campaign puzzle. PARTING WORDS Gasoline prices are displayed at a gas station in Los Angeles. | Mario Tama/Getty Images IT’S A GAS, GAS, GAS (TAX) — The federal gas tax holiday that some Democrats are floating wouldn’t save Americans much money at the pump — but it could do serious damage to Biden’s infrastructure promises, transportation reporter Tanya Snyder writes. It all comes down to simple math: The federal gasoline tax adds 18.4 cents to the price motorists pay for every gallon of gas — adding up to less than $3 for Washington when someone fills a Toyota Camry. But the gas tax also generates big money for the federal trust fund that pays for highway, tunnel and bridge projects across the country — and eliminating it for even part of the year would blow an enormous hole in those budgets. The new infrastructure investments that Congress approved last year rely on $43 billion in gas tax revenues for this year alone, and losing that money could hamstring one of the Biden administration’s signature achievements so far. Based on Congressional Budget Office estimates, the feds could forfeit more than $20 billion in tax receipts, assuming a holiday of about 10 months. The tax pause would be a “temporary stunt,” said Ed Mortimer, vice president of transportation infrastructure at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which routinely lobbies for greater federal investments in infrastructure. He said it would undermine the new infrastructure law but offer “no promise of actually helping lower prices for consumers or improving the economy.” Did someone forward this email to you? Sign up here.   Follow us on Twitter Chris Suellentrop @suellentrop Tyler Weyant @tweyant Renuka Rayasam @renurayasam Myah Ward @myahward   FOLLOW US

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